Ship of Fools: Look who is doing a victory lap through the Middle East

Thread: Look who is doing a victory lap through the Middle East Board: Purgatory / Ship of Fools.

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Posted by Gramps49 (# 16378) on :

Putin

He just signed a $400 billion military arms sale with Turkey

He met Assad and announced he is about to do a partial withdrawal from Syria.

I believe he meets with the Egyptian president tomorrow.

The Orange One is playing into Putin's hands with the announcement he is moving the US embassy to Jerusalem.

OO may not be a Manchurian candidate, but he certainly seems like a Kremlin stooge.

Posted by cliffdweller (# 13338) on :

Is "playing into his hands" the right phrase when you're fulfilling your job description? I'd say he's bucking for employee of the year.... in Moscow.

Posted by Golden Key (# 1468) on :

VP Pence is headed for the Middle East. The Palestinian leader refuses to meet with him.

Supposedly, Pence nudged T to make his Jerusalem declaration, for the end-times reasons discussed elsewhere.

Posted by simontoad (# 18096) on :

I still regard Russia as a major enemy of liberal western democracy, or at least the current Russian administration. I concede that it is easy for me to see that administration as an enemy because I don't like the way our own big businesses operate, and I want to see a more even distribution of wealth around the world. I imagine many people who operate in the big end of our towns would have quite alot in common with Putin and his kleptocracy.

My recollection is that Turkey has been in the American and European spheres of influence for a very long time - all my life. That's the real loss. Syria was always Russian.

Posted by mark_in_manchester (# 15978) on :

So Turkey, a member of NATO, just signed a big arms deal with Russia. What next?

Posted by mark_in_manchester (# 15978) on :

I know what's next. Putin keeps Erdogan in power indefinitely in the kind of way that the West kept people like Pinochet in place. Great news, citizens of Turkey.

Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :

You got it. Strictly business as usual. Britain and America knew how to do that once upon a time. These guys have been playing hard ball for a thousand years apiece.

Posted by Enoch (# 14322) on :

quote:
Originally posted by mark_in_manchester:
So Turkey, a member of NATO, just signed a big arms deal with Russia. What next?

The Russians need a friend controlling the straits. They also want a friend in control of the southern side of the Black Sea. They'd like naval facilities in the Med.

Perhaps they'll have another go at the Khyber Pass next, but there are still quite a lot of Russians survivors who suffered for that aspiration the last time they went for it.

One of the things nobody seems to learn from history, is that if you fight the Afghans, the Afghans always win.

[ 12. December 2017, 19:42: Message edited by: Enoch ]

Posted by rolyn (# 16840) on :

The West has a long record of tinkering in the ME.
The 03 invasion of Iraq went well beyond this normal policy, the hope being it would trigger an outbreak of peaceful democracies across the region. This has not worked out too well.

Now it is time for pax Russana with the Old Bear resuming it's trade of arms to Countries with clout. The downing of a Russian jet by Turkish planes which some felt could spark WW3 has clearly been well forgotten.

Arms and the Middle East go together like peaches and cream. It is virtually impossible to envisage a time when this will not be so.

Posted by simontoad (# 18096) on :

Enoch concerning the Afghans and war I think I'd say that the Afghans lose but so do the invaders. I'm just trying to capture the devastation.

Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on :

quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
The downing of a Russian jet by Turkish planes which some felt could spark WW3 has clearly been well forgotten.

That was my first thought too. Funny how things turn out.

Posted by mark_in_manchester (# 15978) on :

Maybe the Russians build something in so their exported ground to air systems won't hit Russian aircraft. Can't be too careful...

Posted by Pangolin Guerre (# 18686) on :

Some notes:

With the burying of the hatchet between Turkey and Russia, Russia gets vicarious influence in Qatar, where Turkey has a base. Qatar has been unsuccessfully blockaded by US allies Saudi Arabia and UAE. Qatar has been driven by the blockade into a deeper relationship with Iran, already very friendly with Russia. Mohammed bin Salman is proving to be less than a master strategist, and with friends like him...

Commercial flights between Egypt (US ally, more or less) and Russia will soon resume.

Monday "a Kremlin spokesman" - I didn't catch whether it was Dmitri Peskov, Putins' press secretary - announced that the Kremlin now consider's Trump's tweets to be "policy statements". That is tactical brilliance. Any time that Trump says something stupid, the Kremlin can react accordingly, to their advantage, and look like the adult in the room. How can the Whitehouse disavow the statements of the President, effectively saying, "No, no, don't take him seriously"?

Both geopolitically and tactically, the Kremlin team is playing an A game, while, as one diplomat said recently, American foreign policy ranges from directionless to unfocussed rage.

My question is, given what has already transpired, the bankruptcy of anything resembling a coherent foreign policy, a general decline in American prestige, and the aenemic state of the American diplomatic corps, how long will it be before the US recovers from Trump's first year in office? My guess: one full generation.

[ 13. December 2017, 21:07: Message edited by: Pangolin Guerre ]

Posted by apostate630 (# 15425) on :

"My question is, given what has already transpired, the bankruptcy of anything resembling a coherent foreign policy, a general decline in American prestige, and the aenemic state of the American diplomatic corps, how long will it be before the US recovers from Trump's first year in office? My guess: one full generation."

My guess: never.

Trump's regime is dismantling the State Department with an efficiency that would have been the green envy of a cabal of KGB sleeper agents. There is no US foreign policy, just the whims of a middle school bully with ADHD. Trump could be removed from office tomorrow, but our allies and friends will never trust us again. They can never be sure we'll never give the codes to another Trump.

If you consider, for good or ill, the decades since the implosion of the USSR the period of American primacy on the planet, it's over.

Posted by rolyn (# 16840) on :

If the period of US hegemony is over then this may be a good thing in some ways.
If one is in search of silver linings then it could be argued that Trump is America's version of Mr. P. Thus we have a return to the Cold War balance of power which saw decades of relative peace and economic growth for many.

None of which is ideal, but as we know Ideal never has been writ large in 10,000 years of “civilisation”.

Posted by quetzalcoatl (# 16740) on :

Interesting posts - I was thinking the other day that Trump represents decline. His announcement on Jerusalem shows this. I suppose it's more brutally honest - the US isn't pretending to be a neutral chairman of peace talks.

Posted by simontoad (# 18096) on :

I think Trump's enduring foreign policy damage is overstated, especially if he turns out to be a one term President. His behavior is so out there it will be easy for the next administration to put his legacy in a box and say, "back to business people".

Also, I'm pretty sure that international diplomacy is based on a web of relationships at all levels of government. The President is obviously of critical importance, but informal relationships between people in government and formerly in government are important too, especially in providing a level of continuity. One of the most important behind-the-scenes people in the US-Australia relationship is Senator John McCain. He helps ease the pain.

I agree with the assessment of Russian foreign policy. They wanted Trump to win, and now they are making hay. It does not look good in the Middle East, but as the man on the back of the cart said, "I'm not dead yet..."

Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :

Good dialectic simontoad, balances apostate630's uequally good one. And Pangolin Guerre's fascinating window on Turkish-Qatari relations. The old Brit base has a Turkish force of 88 at present. Quadruple think is what they all do and the Russians look down kindly on that board.

[ 14. December 2017, 10:55: Message edited by: Martin60 ]

Posted by Pangolin Guerre (# 18686) on :

Simontoad - You're right that much diplomacy relies on the network of informal relationships. The problem is that with so many State Department posts unfilled, there are many fewer people with whom to form these informal relationships. At the top, The President and the Secretary of State seem frequently to be pursuing different, contradictory agendas. It's nice that McCain eases your pain, but he doesn't set policy, or one policy among many.

Posted by simontoad (# 18096) on :

That's true. Last I heard we don't currently host an ambassador from the United States. Mind you, legend has it that famous '80's golfer Greg "the Shark" Norman was able to put our PM in touch with Trump on election night.

Norman was famous for choking in golf tournaments and is associated with the White Shoe Brigade (code for corrupt Queensland businessmen developing real estate on the Gold Coast). It is no surprise that he had Trump's phone number.

Norman is actually the wrong generation to be a true white shoe guy, but he is from Queensland and he does wear white shoes from time to time.

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