Thread: Are these statistics true? Board: Purgatory / Ship of Fools.


To visit this thread, use this URL:
http://forum.ship-of-fools.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=2;t=020434
Posted by RdrEmCofE (# 17511) on :
 
I have an acquaintance in the USA who assures me that the following statistics are true. However I don't know where he got them from and he is notoriously 'right wing' in his world view. I feel that is probably spin, lies and bunk, but feeling is not knowing. I would like to refute it if it is actually untrue.

Can anyone corroborate or refute the factual accuracy of this information please.

quote:
From the years 2015/16 to 2016/17, homicides in London rose by 27.1 per cent. Youth homicide jumped 70 per cent. Serious youth violence was up 19 per cent. Robbery was up 33.4 per cent, while home burglaries rose by 18.7 per cent.

Theft went up by over 10,000 incidents in a year, up 33.9 per cent, and there were more than 4,000 additional knife crime incidents under Khan than under his predecessor, a rise of 31.3 per cent.

Rape in the capital rose by 18.3 per cent, while there were 2,551 incidents of gun crime, representing a rise of 16.3 per cent on the previous year.

The Mayor has continuously blamed central government “police cuts” for the problems faced, but statistics reveal London only lost around 1,000 police officers (3 per cent) in the past year, reducing the workforce from 31,343 to 30,379.

The report compares November to October data from the years 2015/16 and 2016/17.

Earlier this year London overtook New York City as one of the most dangerous capital cities in the Western world.

 
Posted by Nicolemr (# 28) on :
 
I have no idea as to the statistics, however, this:

quote:
Earlier this year London overtook New York City as one of the most dangerous capital cities in the Western world.
makes, to my mind, the whole thing dubious, in that firstly, New York City isn't the capital of anything, not even the state of New York (that's Albany), and second, New York City crime statistics have been falling, and the city really isn't that dangerous a place any more.
 
Posted by Brenda Clough (# 18061) on :
 
This is from December in the Washington Post. You could probably track back to that law school and its original report.

The progressive Brennan Center at New York University School of Law is out with its annual crime report. It found:

All measures of crime in the 30 largest American cities — the overall crime rate, violent crime rate, and murder rate — are estimated to decline in 2017 according to a year-end analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law. … The overall crime rate in the 30 largest cities in 2017 is estimated to decline slightly from 2016, falling by 2.7 percent. The violent crime rate will also decrease slightly, by 1.1 percent, essentially remaining stable. The 2017 murder rate in the 30 largest cities is estimated to decline by 5.6 percent. Large decreases this year in Chicago (down 11.9 percent) and Detroit (down 9.8 percent), as well as small decreases in other cities, contributed to this decline. New York City’s murder rate will also decline again, to 3.3 killings per 100,000 people.
 
Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 
Seems close.

Percentages are troublesome things, though; you'd want the full numbers on these to make sure.

[ 08. January 2018, 22:53: Message edited by: Ian Climacus ]
 
Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 
Sorry...bad edit:

you'd want actual numbers on these to make sure if the increase is worth worrying about - a small jump off a low base would lead to a high percentage, whereas a small jump off a high base would be a low percentage.

edit: can't schpel

[ 08. January 2018, 22:56: Message edited by: Ian Climacus ]
 
Posted by L'organist (# 17338) on :
 
OK.

These are the crime figures for London for the period April 2015 to March 2016
There was no increase in robbery during this period.

Offences which decreased during this period were

The figures for all murders within the area served by the Metropolitan Police - that is Greater London were 109 homicides in 2015-16 and 110 in 2016-2017. To contrast a place of comparable size in the US, In New York City in 2016 there were 335 homicides.

The Met releases exhaustive figures which can be accessed from their website.

Giving percentage increases for things like crime statistics is not a good way to look at the incidence of crime: for example, if I live in a small city and there is 1 murder in 2015 but 2 in 2016 then the increase in the murder rate will be 100% - but that doesn't make the place the murder capital of the world.

The fact is that there are people in the US who, for some peculiar reason, seem to think that London is a crime-ridden hell-hole; it should be noted that they have been battering on in this vein only since London gained its first Muslim mayor - I leave you to draw your own conclusions.
 
Posted by Zacchaeus (# 14454) on :
 
These of course are recorded crimes, nobody knows the extent of unreported ones.

So you could argue that under Khan people are just more confident in reporting crime

[ 10. January 2018, 17:51: Message edited by: Zacchaeus ]
 
Posted by Trudy Scrumptious (# 5647) on :
 
I think the scope of this discussion is more appropriate for Purgatory than for Heaven. There's a potential interesting conversation about whether these statistics are true/accurate -- if so, what it means; if not, what's the agenda in misrepresenting them. But it is a conversation for the slightly-warmer realms of Purgatory, and thither I am sending it.

Fasten your seatbelts and enjoy the ride.

Trudy, Scrumptious Heaven Host
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
Those figures need to be seen in the context of a rise in crime nationally.
quote:
The latest crime figures for the 12 months to March also show an 18% rise in violent crime, including a 20% surge in gun and knife crime. The official figures also show a 26% rise to 723 in the homicide rate, which includes the 96 cases of manslaughter at Hillsborough in 1989.

[...] Ministers will also be concerned that the country is becoming increasingly violent in nature, with gun crime rising 23% to 6,375 offences, largely driven by an increase in the use of handguns. Knife crime has also jumped by 20% to 34,703 incidents – the highest level for seven years. The largest increase in knife crime came in London, which accounted for 40% of the rise.
So London's surge in gun crime is actually less bad than the national average and its surge in homicide is only slightly worse. It does, though, have a particular problem with knife crime.

Not that this makes it OK, but it does suggest the rise has less to do with Mr Khan than with the Home Office. Fortunately the Home Secretary who presided over the harshest cuts to police numbers in decades is a complete nonentity who has gone nowhere in politics.

[ 10. January 2018, 21:11: Message edited by: Ricardus ]
 
Posted by Gracious rebel (# 3523) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Zacchaeus:
These of course are recorded crimes, nobody knows the extent of unreported ones.
Actually there are statistics from the Crime Survey for England and Wales that include crimes that are unreported. These can be used alongside the Police figures to give a truer picture of the incidence of many crimes. (I actually work as an interviewer on this Survey)
 
Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:

Not that this makes it OK, but it does suggest the rise has less to do with Mr Khan than with the Home Office. Fortunately the Home Secretary who presided over the harshest cuts to police numbers in decades is a complete nonentity who has gone nowhere in politics.
Equally a whole bunch of other ancillary services (mental health provision for instance) have been cut and other indicators seem to show that the cuts are having real effects. Crime also tends to rise during periods of economic slum/stagnation.
 
Posted by Gramps49 (# 16378) on :
 
Meanwhile, in Chicago homicides are down 21% in the past year. Chicago has long had the reputation to be the murder capital of the US. This is the first significant downturn in my lifetime.

Chicago has come up with an innovative program where they try to identify who is likely to be murdered and who is likely to be a murderer based on known gang activity. Then they intervene to offer help to get them on the right side of the law.
 
Posted by Tubbs (# 440) on :
 
A Google reveals the article is from Breitbart.

Helpfully, if you can bring yourself to click on the link, it includes the actual numbers behind the percentages but doesn't give any context for the figures.

Incidents of rape have increased, but rape is a very under-reported crime. A lot of work has been done to encourage people to report incidents and ensure they're recorded correctly in the last few years.

Like most stats, yes they are but the spin that's being put on them is a matter of debate.
 
Posted by L'organist (# 17338) on :
 
The other thing to remember is that no all reported "crimes" turn out to be so. For example, allegations of abuse may be withdrawn but it is unclear whether or not that means the original complaint is withdrawn from the figures.
 
Posted by GreyFace (# 4682) on :
 
quote:
The Mayor has continuously blamed central government “police cuts” for the problems faced, but statistics reveal London only lost around 1,000 police officers (3 per cent) in the past year, reducing the workforce from 31,343 to 30,379.
That may be true but it's in the context of a 15% cut in numbers nationally since 2010. Given similar reductions in social and mental health programmes and the general damage austerity has done, I really don't think it's necessary to go on a Muslim witch-hunt. The article screams far-right agenda.
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
The stupid thing is that it genuinely is possible to attack Mr Khan on this issue. Guardian article: 'Four fatal stabbings in one night – and Sadiq Khan’s slick words ring hollow'.

The Guardian article argues that Mr Khan is out of touch, on the basis of the author's experience of knife crime among children, i.e. the article is based on facts. Breitbart on the other hand seems to think the problem is because Mr Khan is a Muslim, without even bothering to propose any kind of causal link - which is just stupid.
 
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on :
 
A few thoughts....

The British Crime Survey is an excellent piece of work designed to answer the question of how much crime is unreported.

Murder, singularly is a crime that I suspect is not under-reported to any significant extent however. In order for a murder to not show up in the offical recorded crime statistics (i.e. the Police data) the following conditions need to be fulfilled: either No body is found AND no-one is reported missing OR the murder is effectively concealed as some other category of death. For the most part, the unsolved murders tend to be ones where there is a body but the perpetrator is not caught and prosecuted.

The most recent cuts in Police numbers in London may well be quite modest but must be taken in the context of year-on-year-on-year cuts since 2010.

Percentage changes must always be considered in the context of background levels. I.e. if you have 1 murder per year and then suddenly you have a year with 3, that's a tripling of the murder rate. However if it was 20 per year a decade ago, 3 still represents a significant reduction. And that's before you talk about statistical variation.

Anyway, just a few thoughts...

AFZ
 
Posted by apostate630 (# 15425) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
A Google reveals the article is from Breitbart.

Helpfully, if you can bring yourself to click on the link, it includes the actual numbers behind the percentages but doesn't give any context for the figures.

Incidents of rape have increased, but rape is a very under-reported crime. A lot of work has been done to encourage people to report incidents and ensure they're recorded correctly in the last few years.

Like most stats, yes they are but the spin that's being put on them is a matter of debate.
By now I hope people planet wide realize that any content from Breitbart must be taken not with a grain but a pillar of salt.
 


© Ship of Fools 2016

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classicTM 6.5.0