Ship of Fools: Quickie Thread: Baseball HOF Voting

Thread: Quickie Thread: Baseball HOF Voting Board: The Circus / Ship of Fools.

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Posted by Hedgehog (# 14125) on :

The Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the new inductees in, oh, a little under seven hours from now.

Sorry for the short notice.

So here is the current ballot. 33 names, of which 14 are holdovers from prior years. You need 75% of the vote to get elected. Less than 5% of the vote and you are eliminated from future ballots.

So who gets in this year? From the holdovers, I think Trevor Hoffman and Vlad Guerrero will get over the hump. Of the new names, I think Chipper Jones is a certainty to get in.

After that, I am doubtful. Jim Thome will probably get in eventually, but I am doubtful that he will make it this year. There is a certain dilution when the ballot is so crowded and I think that will keep him from getting 75%.

I don't see anybody else getting in. The steroid-era players are not going anywhere so long as the Baseball Writers are voting. I do think a number of the 1st year people (like Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones and Johnny Damon) will survive the 5% cut off and get chances in future years.

Posted by Prester John (# 5502) on :

Schilling and Jones have both made politically charged comments this past year and have taken heat for it, especially Schilling. I could see that torpedoing any chances this time around.

Posted by Hedgehog (# 14125) on :

Just about two hours left before the announcement.

I agree that Schilling is not likely to get in. This is his 6th year on the ballot and he has not yet crossed even the 50% threshold. As with the others from that same class year (Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Roger Clemens), I doubt that the Baseball Writers (BBWAA) will ever approve them.

Now,in future years, they may very well all get in through a vote of the Veterans' Committee (not the BBWAA)...but not any time real soon.

Posted by Hedgehog (# 14125) on :

And the results are in. I don't have the percentages yet, but four made it in, announced in this order:

Chipper Jones
Vlad Guerrero
Jim Thome
Trevor Hoffman

So, pretty much as I expected, except that Jim Thome had more pull than I expected. But he deserves it. One of the genuine good guys in baseball.

More analysis once I have the percentages.

Posted by simontoad (# 18096) on :

The HOF plays baseball too? Truly he is a giddy marvel.

Posted by Hedgehog (# 14125) on :

The vote:
Chipper Jones 410 (97.2)
Vladimir Guerrero 392 (92.9)
Jim Thome 379 (89.8)
Trevor Hoffman 337 (79.9)
_______________________________________________
Edgar Martinez 297 (70.4)
Mike Mussina 268 (63.5)
Roger Clemens 242 (57.3)
Barry Bonds 238 (56.4)
Curt Schilling 216 (51.2)
Omar Vizquel 156 (37.0)
Larry Walker 144 (34.1)
Fred McGriff 98 (23.2)
Manny Ramirez 93 (22.0)
Jeff Kent 61 (14.5)
Gary Sheffield 47 (11.1)
Billy Wagner 47 (11.1)
Scott Rolen 43 (10.2)
Sammy Sosa 33 (7.8)
Andruw Jones 31 (7.3)
______________________________________________
Jamie Moyer 10 (2.4)
Johan Santana 10 (2.4)
Johnny Damon 8 (1.9)
Hideki Matsui 4 (0.9)
Chris Carpenter 2 (0.5)
Kerry Wood 2 (0.5)
Livan Hernandez 1 (0.2)
Carlos Lee 1 (0.2)
Orlando Hudson 0
Aubrey Huff 0
Jason Isringhausen 0
Brad Lidge 0
Kevin Millwood 0
Carlos Zambrano 0

So the first 4 are in, being on over 75% of the ballots cast (each ballot can vote for up to ten players).

The next bracket, below 75% but at 5% or more, get to stay on next year's ballot and try again.

Those below 5% are eliminated.

I am rather sad Jamie Moyer did not get over the 5% mark to stay on next year's ballot. He is one of my favorites.

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