Thread: If the Yellowstone Caldera erupts... Board: Oblivion / Ship of Fools.


To visit this thread, use this URL:
http://forum.ship-of-fools.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=70;t=023350
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
The Yellowstone Caldera, sometimes known as a super-volcano, has apparently erupted at least 12 times in history, at one time blowing away an entire mountain range, to become as dust in the atmosphere.
While there appears to be no particular reason to expect such an event tomorrow before breakfast, there is also no particular reason not to expect such an event.
So, if such an explosion did occur, at Yellowstone or at the site of any other super-volcano, could the resulting debris in the atmosphere cause an ice age, with the sun blotted out over an entire hemisphere? For those who understand such things, why or why not?
What effect would such a cataclysmic event be likely to have on the faith of any human survivors?

[ 02. August 2012, 19:26: Message edited by: Silver Faux ]
 
Posted by Crœsos (# 238) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
The Yellowstone Caldera, sometimes known as a super-volcano, has apparently erupted at least 12 times in history, at one time blowing away an entire mountain range, to become as dust in the atmosphere.
A slight quibble, but I believe you mean that "[t]he Yellowstone Caldera . . . has apparently erupted at least 12 times in prehistory". According to the wiki article (caveat lector) the last magmatic eruption was 70,000 years ago, well before recorded history.
 
Posted by tclune (# 7959) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
What effect would such a cataclysmic event be likely to have on the faith of any human survivors?
That's the spirit! Posit a global catastrophe and ask what it would do for Church growth...

--Tom Clune
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
Applying your measure of logic, Crœsos, would it also be necessary to say that there has never, in all history, been an ice age?
 
Posted by Crœsos (# 238) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
Applying your measure of logic, Crœsos, would it also be necessary to say that there has never, in all history, been an ice age?
You could indeed claim that all Ice Ages were prehistoric. Most people do, in fact.
 
Posted by Holy Smoke (# 14866) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
The Yellowstone Caldera, sometimes known as a super-volcano, has apparently erupted at least 12 times in history, at one time blowing away an entire mountain range, to become as dust in the atmosphere.
A slight quibble, but I believe you mean that "[t]he Yellowstone Caldera . . . has apparently erupted at least 12 times in prehistory". According to the wiki article (caveat lector) the last magmatic eruption was 70,000 years ago, well before recorded history.
Surely from the context it is obvious that Silver Faux was referring to geological history; geological pre-history would refer to that time prior to the creation of the planet, when there obviously wouldn't be any volcanoes there to erupt.
 
Posted by Balaam (# 4543) on :
 
That's right, post a scare scenario, where the worst thing that could happen if Yellowstone is what will happen.

Why not have La Palma in the Canary island erupting, splitting in two and setting up a tsunami that will wipe out the east coast of the USA. Or a massive earthquake on the San Andreas plunging much of California into the Pacific.

If you really want to scare you could have all three at the same size.
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
Why then, O Crœsos, are there surviving glaciers and ice packs from such events, to cause fear of floods should the effects of global climate change cause them to melt?
It appears to me that you are using the term "history" in a manner diferant from that intended in the OP; changing the mean of a term as a form of argumentation, it seems to me, is one of the definitions of false argumentation.

Although, you may well be right, I suppose.

Just what does your argumentation have to do with the premise of the OP, however?

[ 02. August 2012, 19:52: Message edited by: Silver Faux ]
 
Posted by Balaam (# 4543) on :
 
...at the same time. Not size.

Posting and watching TV. That'll learn me.
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
Bugger! I did an edit to improve my spelling, and actually made it worse! As well as cross-posting with Holy Smoke, whose name makes an ironic contribution to this thread.
 
Posted by Grammatica (# 13248) on :
 
Cormac McCarthy might have already answered your question, though a giant asteroid impact event might better fit the backstory.
 
Posted by HCH (# 14313) on :
 
Let us at least pretend to deal with the original question.

Suppose the Yellowstone caldera, a "supervolcano", does erupt at some point. As relatively few people live in the immediate vicinity, it is likely that the casualty list would not be too large at first. It is likely that most of the U.S. east of Wyoming (and to some extent in all directions) would be very seriously damaged by the fall of ash. There would be plenty of asthma, and plenty of expense to clean it up. The farmland would probably be useless for some time. Food might be expensive and/of scarce for some time.

To some lesser extent, the effects would be felt around the world. We might indeed have a year without summer, or more than one.

I expect there would be plenty of survivors. How would their faith be affected?

(a) Those who never had faith would still mostly have none.

(b) Those with strong faith would still have it, perhaps strengthened.

(c) Various people would be thinking or speaking of the end of the world. Some would be hoping for it. Some would be terrified.

(d) A few people would think back to Noah and the Flood.
 
Posted by Holy Smoke (# 14866) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
...cross-posting with Holy Smoke, whose name makes an ironic contribution to this thread.
The irony is purely unintentional. Going back to your original question, I think the effect on peoples' faith would depend on the scale of the disaster. If it were a calamity on a global scale, then it would certainly lead to a serious diminution in faith, at least in Christian faith, and would put paid to the absurd idea that God somehow 'loves' us. If, however, the event merely wiped out the entire USA, then I think it would have the opposite effect, and most of the World's population would feel that God was Good, and that their prayers had been answered. The problem for God, however, is devising a suitable disaster which would punish the citizens of the United States, without causing too much collateral damage to other countries (I am assuming that Canada is more or less dispensable in this situation - I'm sure God would, anyhow) None of the ideas proposed so far - volcanoes, tsunami, etc. - would seem to fit the bill.

I shall keep praying.
 
Posted by Gramps49 (# 16378) on :
 
If I remember right, when Babylon was laying siege to Jerusalem, and the Israelites thought the world was going to end, Jeremiah bought a plot of land outside of Jerusalem.

Luther was once asked if he knew the world was going to end tomorrow, what would he do. He replied he would plant a tree (and expect it to eventually produce fruit).

For the time being, the caldera was not erupted, while there have been some changes in the caldera, they have not be significant enough to raise any alarm. To speculate on what may happen when it erupts is pointless.

Take one day at a time. Didn't Jesus say something about worrying?
 
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on :
 
An eruption at Yellowstone would not be an extinction-level event. Depending on the style of eruption, it would cause various catagories of local devastation, national disaster and international disruption.

In a worst-case scenario (replicating Yellowstone's previous biggest ever eruption), ash would blanket the central US from Rockies to Appalachians, and enough debris and gas launched into the stratosphere to cool the Earth by several degrees for the better part of a decade. Immediate deaths would be in the millions to tens of millions. The US would resemble the world of Judge Dread, with two cities on opposite coasts...

Global death toll through starvation and shifts in weather patterns would be hundreds of millions plus. It's not like we don't have the data to accurately predict what would happen, or lack the foreknowledge to know that it will happen.

Why do you ask?
 
Posted by Belle Ringer (# 13379) on :
 
I guess one could ask if the effect of a super vulcano on faith would be different from that of the world wars or the tsunamis.

Go talk to some Japanese and report back.
 
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:
To speculate on what may happen when it erupts is pointless.
Ooh. How wrong you are.
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Global death toll through starvation and shifts in weather patterns would be hundreds of millions plus. It's not like we don't have the data to accurately predict what would happen, or lack the foreknowledge to know that it will happen.

Why do you ask?
Well, who else was going to ask?
After all, if we don't prepare, how can we hope to respond?
 
Posted by Honest Ron Bacardi (# 38) on :
 
For a large-scale supereruption, there really is nothing much you can do to prepare. The last such supereruption on the scale that Yellowstone could produce was the Lake Toba eruption, which some believe almost wiped out Homo sapiens, at least according to genetic studies. Whether it would blow at that intensity can only be speculation.

Unless of course you think that moving out of N. America and laying in supplies for a minimum 10-year nuclear winter might help.
 
Posted by Zach82 (# 3208) on :
 
If Yellowstone erupts we'll all be dead. The people of the American upper Midwest will be lucky enough to be killed right away. The rest of us will probably starve to death.

But the world probably won't end that way. It'll probably just get worse and worse, and we'll be stuck in it.

[ 02. August 2012, 22:15: Message edited by: Zach82 ]
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Balaam:
Or a massive earthquake on the San Andreas plunging much of California into the Pacific.
A massive earthquake on the San Andreas will not plunge California into the Pacific. The portion of California west of the fault will move north.

When this happens -- and it's when, not if -- not as many people will die as you would think, because of how we build around here. But some will die, and many thousands will be injured, and the damage to the infrastructure and thus to the regional economy will be enormous. I'm sure there will be a drag on the US economy and even on the global economy, as California's economy is the eighth largest in the world. See the US Geological Service scenario here.

I don't know if it's worth spending a lot of time and energy preparing for an eruption of the Yellowstone caldera, but it most certainly makes sense to prepare for a huge earthquake in California.
 
Posted by Zach82 (# 3208) on :
 
There are lots of more likely catastrophes much more likely to happen. The most recent one was the destruction of New Orleans- I remember seeing that one on a documentary about disasters like a decade before the fact.

Apparently a violent eruption of Mt Vesuvius could wipe out Naples. Or an earthquake could cause a catastrophic collapse of the Three Gorges Dam in China. A direct hit by a hurricane could devastate New York City. Doom is everywhere.
 
Posted by Zach82 (# 3208) on :
 
Oh goodness, what a garbled post. That's what multi-tasking will do to you. [Hot and Hormonal]
 
Posted by Garasu (# 17152) on :
 
So,to summarize: we're doomed. The precise mechanism to be determined...
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
Mount St. Helens is relatively close to Yellowstone; some of you may remember that eruption. Some scientists estimate that an eruption of the Yellowstone caldera would be in the order of 10,000 times the size of the Mount St. Helens eruption, and that the lava flow would reach LA.
Google it.
 
Posted by Zach82 (# 3208) on :
 
Something's going to kill us sooner or later Silver Faux. Do they have "Always resuscitate" orders? I hope to go slowly and painfully, being a burden to my loved ones for as long as possible. Then I'm giving everything to the Church. Haw!
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Zach82:
Something's going to kill us sooner or later Silver Faux. Then I'm giving everything to the Church.
Good, I'll PM the address of the one I serve! [Yipee]
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Balaam:
Why not have La Palma in the Canary island erupting, splitting in two and setting up a tsunami that will wipe out the east coast of the USA. Or a massive earthquake on the San Andreas plunging much of California into the Pacific.

If you really want to scare you could have all three at the same size.
After perusing Wikipedia, I can offer you two out of three:

quote:
Further research shows that earthquakes from great distances do reach and have effects upon the activities at Yellowstone, such as the 1992 7.3 magnitude Landers earthquake in California’s Mojave Desert that triggered a swarm of quakes from more than 800 miles (1,300 km) away and the Denali fault earthquake 2,000 miles (3,200 km) away in Alaska that altered the activity of many geysers and hot springs for several months afterwards.[32]

The head of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, has proposed major upgrades and extended monitoring since the U.S. Geological Survey classified Yellowstone as a “high-threat” system.[33]
And because I can't help the sci-fi movie imagining: If Yellowstone blew up just the right amount, would it counter global warming? If climage change went too far, could scientists (preferably a gorgeous one and a sassy sidekick) make Yellowstone blow up on purpose and with the resulting ash cooling the planet make everything all right again?
 
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
And because I can't help the sci-fi movie imagining: If Yellowstone blew up just the right amount, would it counter global warming? If climage change went too far, could scientists (preferably a gorgeous one and a sassy sidekick) make Yellowstone blow up on purpose and with the resulting ash cooling the planet make everything all right again?
Geo-engineering on this scale is not to be recommended anywhere near a functioning eco-system.

Global warming is decades-gradual. Nuclear winter caused by megatonnes of crap in the upper atmosphere is instant. It's like saying "The front door's stuck. I know what'll shift it: this handy block of C4."

It'll shift the door just fine.
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
Point taken. (But I still think it would be a great popcorn flick.)
 
Posted by Carex (# 9643) on :
 
The Yellowstone Caldera is known to have deposited a layer of ash about 5cm / 2 inches deep as far away as Chicago. That's about the same that Portland, Oregon suffered when Mt. St. Helens erupted, and while transportation was affected for a while (you don't want to suck it into a motor, and that is a lot of cubic meters of rock to dispose of) the city recovered. The impacts may be worse in a large dense city such as Chicago due to the number of people needing food, etc., but the ash itself it probably wouldn't kill many people at that distance.

The plains and the Rocky Mountain states (and Canadian provinces) would bear the brunt of it, depending on the prevailing winds. Denver and Salt Lake City would probably be badly affected, while Minneapolis, Omaha, Wichita and Tulsa are likely to suffer due to the prevailing winds. The Pacific corridor (Seattle / Portland) might survive relatively unscathed due to wind patterns.

That will affect food production for several years to come: 5cm of ash probably could be plowed into the soil, depending on the chemical composition. Grain crops may survive the ash depending on the state of growth and whether or not the ash affects the processing equipment. But cattle won't be able to graze on short grass, and broadleaf crops may be crushed.

Will it affect religious beliefs? For some, perhaps, but not in any specific direction. I would expect that the first months will be a massive recovery mode, cleaning roads and equipment, and trying to deliver food, water, and necessary supplies. People tend to focus on working together to help others in such a time, though there are those who will take advantage of the situation for their own benefit.

The group that may be affected the most will be the LDS: on one hand, Salt Lake City may be severely damaged or destroyed, though I expect enough of the Elders will survive to maintain leadership. On the other hand, they emphasize preparedness, so Mormons will probably be better able to survive any shutoff of transportation, and likely will be in the forefront of emergency response. (They are expected to have a month's supply of food in their storeroom.)

I would expect to see a lot of fringe groups / "prophets" who are predicting the end of the world, and all the quirkiness that goes with it. In fact, it likely will bring out all sorts of extremists in various forms. Everybody will be stressed, and each will respond in their own way.

For some it may deepen their religious faith, other will find cause to question it. I don't think there will be any "standard" response.
 
Posted by Spiffy (# 5267) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Point taken. (But I still think it would be a great popcorn flick.)
Nah, it was pretty awful, actually.

Having grown up in the shadow of the caldera and the San Andreas Fault (and now buying property where you can see Mt. St. Helens and several other volcanoes on a rare cloudless day), I know that the only thing you can do is hope for the best and expect the worst.

Hurricanes, however, scare the ever-loving crap out of me. You have to sit there for DAYS watching it come at you, bro.
 
Posted by orfeo (# 13878) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Garasu:
So,to summarize: we're doomed. The precise mechanism to be determined...
No-one knows the day, the hour, or the precise method. [Biased]
 
Posted by Palimpsest (# 16772) on :
 
under Yellowstone is a Discovery Channel sumary of a tv documentary. It also covers other super-volcanoes. One theory is that one in Siberia caused the mass extinction at the of the Permian era 250 million years ago. Another may have left a genetic trail where humanity was reduced to a population of a few thousand people tens of thousands of years ago.
 
Posted by comet (# 10353) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:

quote:
and the Denali fault earthquake 2,000 miles (3,200 km) away in Alaska that altered the activity of many geysers and hot springs for several months afterwards.[32]
ahh, good times. the liquor store essentially went kablooey and the employees were high on the fumes for days.

a propos of nothing (except perhaps, great visions of doom and disaster) they want to build what would be the 8th largest dam in the world just to the south of the epicenter of that bad boy. 'cause, you know, government knows what's best for us.

back to your disasters. I'll resume my ark building.
 
Posted by Galloping Granny (# 13814) on :
 
Did anyone see the TV programme on Yellowstone? It was very thorough and real scary, and Doc Tor has given a good summary of the likely consequences.

Our largest lake, Lake Taupo, bang in the middle of our most populated island, is a giant caldera, formed by one of the greatest geologically recorded eruptions about 26,500 years ago, when it ejected c. 1170 cubic km of material. It has erupted 28 times since then, the most recent being around 200 CE, when c. 100 cubic km was ejected.

It is regarded as dormant, not extinct.

Written in a spirit of emulation from Wellington, where we sit on known fault lines, and the slogan is 'Not if, but when'; and where every household is supposed to have its emergency plans and supplies for at least 3 days (but 3 weeks is more realistic).

Since religious faith is waning in many parts of the world, here as in a Yellowstone event it will be the signs of hope that strengthen faith: the discovery that people comfort and support one another, kindness and generosity abound, and self-sacrifice is not lacking. Yes, there will be ratbags taking advantage of the destruction but there will always be hope in dark places.

GG
 
Posted by Martin PC not & Ship's Biohazard (# 368) on :
 
We´re IN an ice age.
 
Posted by Boogie (# 13538) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Galloping Granny:

Since religious faith is waning in many parts of the world, here as in a Yellowstone event it will be the signs of hope that strengthen faith: the discovery that people comfort and support one another, kindness and generosity abound, and self-sacrifice is not lacking. Yes, there will be ratbags taking advantage of the destruction but there will always be hope in dark places.

GG
[Overused]
 
Posted by George Spigot (# 253) on :
 
If it erupts I predict that some people will see it as proof that there is no God. Some will say God does not intervene. Some will say that God manifests himself through people rallying together to help and the remainder will blame it on the gays.
 
Posted by comet (# 10353) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by George Spigot:
and the remainder will blame it on the gays.
they are so incredibly powerful, who knew? I almost wish I could dig chicks; I'd be one volcano-making mofo.

"Dear God - if I kiss a girl, will you strike a few people with lightning for me? I have a little list..."

[ 03. August 2012, 11:11: Message edited by: comet ]
 
Posted by Moo (# 107) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Spiffy:
Hurricanes, however, scare the ever-loving crap out of me. You have to sit there for DAYS watching it come at you, bro.
That is why I am glad that I experience the occasional hurricane rather than earthquakes or tornadoes. You have time to prepare--make sure you have plenty of batteries, fill containers with water if you have a well-pump, etc. Also, cancel any plans you may have had for the day the hurricane is expected to hit. I like to know what's coming; I hate nasty surprises.

Moo
 
Posted by Belle Ringer (# 13379) on :
 
I asked Google what happens if Yellowstone blows and got This site which includes a map of the last 3 blows, a movie clip of a fictitious blow, and a video of a scientist of some sort interviewed on TV -- all accessed by scrolling down a bit thru the discussion, and on page 2 of the discussion a video from "Naked Science" by National Geographic, with scientists etc, discussing Yellowstone's past and potential eruption.

Which doesn't answer the faith question.
 
Posted by Alogon (# 5513) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by HCH:
Let us at least pretend to deal with the original question.
(a) Those who never had faith would still mostly have none.

(b) Those with strong faith would still have it, perhaps strengthened.

(c) Various people would be thinking or speaking of the end of the world. Some would be hoping for it. Some would be terrified.

(d) A few people would think back to Noah and the Flood.
What would happen to the Internet? If it survives, then civilization will survive or is surviving.

If it does not, then the situation could be like that of the novel A Canticle for Leibowitz, with written material so scarce that those possessing any must keep it a secret. Due to their isolation, they have almost inevitably wildly misinterpreted what they have. The disaster would exacerbate the scarcity, of course, but we have already invited it. Traditional publishing is increasingly threatened by our turning to electronic sources. We don't stop to consider how fragile this makes our ability to stay informed, our ability to educate ourselves, perhaps our very literacy. If anything disrupts the Internet, all this would disappear instantly or at least be gravely threatened in short order.

Another science-fiction example that comes to mind is Robert Heinlein's Orphans of the Sky or Universe. In this story, a huge intergalactic space ship on a mission to colonize a distant planet met with an accident serious enough to disrupt the social structure of the passengers and crew. The result was that most of them began to read the ship's operating manuals metaphorically rather than literally. They believed that their ship was the entire universe. An entire religion arose around these manuals treated as sacred texts but absurdly misunderstood. Mechanically, the ship was still functioning marvelously on auto-pilot. But the bridge was deserted and only a few outcasts retained any knowledge of it or of the flight's mission. (I found it a little ironic that Heinlein, an atheist, seemed here to be pleading for fundamentalism.)

Another word we could use for this misunderstanding, in both cases, would be superstition. I'd envision a huge increase in it. The number with "no faith" (certainly as defined by Croesus et al, for whom all religious faith is superstition) would go down.

On the other hand, I wonder whether obsessions and compulsions lead inevitably to superstition. A third post-disaster novel comes to mind, much a more recent one, The Dewey Decimal System, by Larson. The hero is very obsessive-compulsive in a characteristically American way, and there is simply no other word for how he justifies these habits than superstition. Americans as a people are quite obsessive-compulsive already, probably becoming more so, and the wired lifestyle is a major cause. It could be that a rolling back of this tide, even if it's due to a major disaster, could have its benefits for mental health and clear thinking.
 
Posted by orfeo (# 13878) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by comet:
quote:
Originally posted by George Spigot:
and the remainder will blame it on the gays.
they are so incredibly powerful, who knew? I almost wish I could dig chicks; I'd be one volcano-making mofo.

"Dear God - if I kiss a girl, will you strike a few people with lightning for me? I have a little list..."
Haven't you heard? We already managed the Boxing Day tsunami to specifically target holidaying Swedes. A few lightning strikes just doesn't cut it.
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
Not to sound goody-two-shoes, orfeo, but those were real people who died by the hundred-thousands.
Of course, any disaster involves real people, but joking about that Boxing Day tragedy has an "ick factor" IMO
 
Posted by Carex (# 9643) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by comet:
...I have a little list..."
quote:
Men's chorus:
They'll none of 'em be miss'd.
Meanwhile, they've upped the probabilities for the next big quake in the Pacific Northwest. An 8.3 seems more likely than a 9.0, at least, but it gives us something else to think about.

(Geeky details here.)
 
Posted by Moo (# 107) on :
 
I have recently read a book about the Yokohama earthquake of 1923. The author plausibly argues that this event de-stabilized Japanese society and politics to such an extent that it contributed substantially to World War 2.

There is a limit to how much a government can do in the face of an extreme catastrophe. People affected by the catastrophe can't see that, and the government is likely to be voted out of office or overthrown completely.

Moo
 
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on :
 
I'm reasonably certain that the projected ash cloud covers most, if not all, the US's land-based ICBMs.
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
Then no one would know the ash from a hole in the ground.
 
Posted by Timothy the Obscure (# 292) on :
 
It's one of many reasons I got the hell out of Idaho Falls...
 
Posted by Palimpsest (# 16772) on :
 
The other consequence of volcano ash would have is a year without a summer as ellowis thought to have happened in 1816 due to volcanic eruptions.
 
Posted by SusanDoris (# 12618) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Galloping Granny:
Did anyone see the TV programme on Yellowstone? It was very thorough and real scary, and Doc Tor has given a good summary of the likely consequences.
There was a programme fairly recently, wasn't there? The one I saw was 20 or more years ago I think and it said much of what Doc Tor said, but I remember also that it talked of two scientists, each studying different subjects, who happened to meet at a conference and realised they had two theories which fitted together well. One had been studying the ash layers etc and the other a huge pit with the bones of many thousands of animals of different species. The bones showed that they must have had lungs filled with that volcanic dust. If I remember correctly, this jumble of bones had been a cause of much puzzlement because predators and prey were together. Does anyone know any more about this?

Our
 
Posted by rolyn (# 16840) on :
 
"IF" the Yellowstone Caldera erupts ?
We're in the realms of denial here . All the science tells us "when" is the word, not "if" .

What will it do to faith ? I suspect some of us Fundies will be running around waving our arms about, going on on about the Tribulation , God's Wrath, etc.
The Secular masses will be getting on with clearing up the mess and referring to the irrepressible human spirit.
And some years after the whole demography of world Faith will have tipped in favour of Islam .
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The US would resemble the world of Judge Dread, with two cities on opposite coasts...
For shame. Dredd.
 
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The US would resemble the world of Judge Dread, with two cities on opposite coasts...
For shame. Dredd.
Gah. I shall hand in my geek credentials and take the Long Walk.
 
Posted by orfeo (# 13878) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
Not to sound goody-two-shoes, orfeo, but those were real people who died by the hundred-thousands.
Of course, any disaster involves real people, but joking about that Boxing Day tragedy has an "ick factor" IMO
I wasn't joking, in that this was actually what the Phelps folks claimed. The claim is utterly bizarre, but it's not, in the humour sense, a joke.
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
Maybe the Phelps family could moonlight as guides at Yellowstone, then?
 
Posted by Arabella Purity Winterbottom (# 3434) on :
 
And in related news, Mt Tongariro erupted yesterday, sending ash over the eastern North Island. Its one of the central North Island volcanoes, which take turns at showing themselves to be dormant rather than extinct.

Having just been on holiday in the area, and looked at lots of info on volcanoes, NZ would be toast if there was a really big eruption again.
 
Posted by Huia (# 3473) on :
 
Totally agree Arabella, as Rolyn said about Yellowstone - it's when, rather than if, for those volcanoes, and possibly Taranaki too.
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
For those of you wishing to spice up your Sunday morning PowerPoint by scaring Hell out of everyone, here is a slide show gallery of volcanic lightning; just click on each square in turn to see the way the world as we know it ends!
 
Posted by George Spigot (# 253) on :
 
Volcano killed thousands of British people in the 13th century
 
Posted by Moo (# 107) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by George Spigot:
Volcano killed thousands of British people in the 13th century
Quote from cited link
quote:
The really interesting bit: Nobody is sure yet where that volcanic eruption actually happened.
Sometime in the last few months I read that a scientist has a theory about exactly where that volcano was. The deposits which were scattered world-wide have the same proportion of components as a certain volcanic site in Indonesia.

Unfortunately, I don't know where I read this and I can't find it on Google.

Moo
 
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on :
 
The Yellowstone areas, Montana, Wyoming, and further afield to Glacier are some of my favorite places on earth. If the employment situation were better I'd even consider relocating. I figure if the volcano blows I'd go with it.

Buffet
 
Posted by Mad Geo (# 2939) on :
 
In my professional capacity as a geologist, you may stop worrying about this, effective immediately.

You may NOT stop worrying about Global Climate Change, however. THAT is happening NOW, and it's gonna suck for a LOT of people. Already has. The U.S. is frying.

[Biased]
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
How about the major quake in SoCal? I've eaten all the peanut butter and chocolate that were in my emergency supplies. Do I need to replenish?
 
Posted by Net Spinster (# 16058) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
How about the major quake in SoCal? I've eaten all the peanut butter and chocolate that were in my emergency supplies. Do I need to replenish?
Hm, yes? Though a 4.4 isn't major.

The eruption of 1258 (or possibly 1257) seems still to be under wraps though likely to be an Indonesian volcano
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/341497/title/13th_century_volcano_mystery_may_be_solved
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
Have you ever visited Yellowstone, Mad Geo? I was there about three weeks ago. Stared directly into boiling mudpots along the walking trails.
I took several hundred pictures, and loaded them to a 10.4" digital picture frame, to run as a scrolling presentation.
By the way, not all geologists would agree with you; in 2009, one of them tried to get the government to evacuate everyone within a 500-mile radius of Yellowstone. You can Google that if you like, it has great pictures attached to the article.

[ 09. August 2012, 01:50: Message edited by: Silver Faux ]
 
Posted by Boogie (# 13538) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:

By the way, not all geologists would agree with you; in 2009, one of them tried to get the government to evacuate everyone within a 500-mile radius of Yellowstone. You can Google that if you like, it has great pictures attached to the article.
Wow!

(The wolves would be happy about that!)

It must feel odd to live there - sitting on top of SUCH a big time bomb
[Eek!]
 
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on :
 
Wasn't there a BBC drama about this very possibility? (checks Wikipedia) Made in 2005, broadcast on BBC1 and the Discovery Channel. I would post a link but the URL option here won't allow URLs containing parentheses. It was called 'Supervolcano'.

I remembered it for the moment of black comedy when the Mexican government closes their border with the US because they can't cope with any more refugees... [Devil]

[ 09. August 2012, 08:09: Message edited by: Jane R ]
 
Posted by Mad Geo (# 2939) on :
 
RuthW:

I would absolutely keep that chocolate and peanut butter stocked up. Car too. (Not the chocolate though, in this heat) Californians almost cannot have good enough earthquake kits.

I couldn't help wondering if the little quakes we've had recently weren't foreshocks....
(probably not)

Silver Faux

Yes, been to Yellowstone, but it's been decades.

I'm being slightly tongue-in-cheek here, as it is a possibility at any point that Yellowstone will blow all to hell, but as risks go, there are things we can prepare for, and there are things we really can't do all that much about. This is one of those things. We have to hope that there will be a ramp up of seismicity, like St Helens, but then, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't...

By contrast, there are all kinds of things we should do to prepare for Global Climate Change. Some things we should do to DEAL with it.
 
Posted by Mad Geo (# 2939) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
...By the way, not all geologists would agree with you...
If you put 10 geologists in a room, you'll get 12 different opinions on almost anything.

When people say there's a conspiracy of scientists to agree on Global Climate Change, that is a real knee slapper to us. Herding cats, doesn't begin to describe it...
 
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
...By the way, not all geologists would agree with you...
If you put 10 geologists in a room, you'll get 12 different opinions on almost anything.

When people say there's a conspiracy of scientists to agree on Global Climate Change, that is a real knee slapper to us. Herding cats, doesn't begin to describe it...
There are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns (which may be the only true thing that man ever said).

Personally, I think living on a tectonically quiet corner of a continent, on top of a hill, covers quite a few geotechnical hazards, though a really big meteorite strike in the North Sea might do for me.

Building a house where the ground might kill me seems... unwise.
 
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
...By the way, not all geologists would agree with you...
If you put 10 geologists in a room, you'll get 12 different opinions on almost anything.

When people say there's a conspiracy of scientists to agree on Global Climate Change, that is a real knee slapper to us. Herding cats, doesn't begin to describe it...
Love it. Mad Geo, when it comes to these issues, you are my role model. More sense in three sentences than your average New Scientist article.
 
Posted by Lyda*Rose (# 4544) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
...By the way, not all geologists would agree with you...
If you put 10 geologists in a room, you'll get 12 different opinions on almost anything.

When people say there's a conspiracy of scientists to agree on Global Climate Change, that is a real knee slapper to us. Herding cats, doesn't begin to describe it...
That went into the quote file. [Big Grin]
 
Posted by Mad Geo (# 2939) on :
 
Wow, thanks! [Smile]
 
Posted by comet (# 10353) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:

I would absolutely keep that chocolate and peanut butter stocked up. Car too. (Not the chocolate though, in this heat) Californians almost cannot have good enough earthquake kits.
not really necessary to say this to californians, I know - but don't count on the car. earthquakes are hell on the road system. especially if you get liquefaction and flooding.

our family "Apocalyptic Doom" kit (named by the kids) can be fit in the car but also on a sled that can be harnessed onto one of us or the dogs. If the S hits the F in the summer and we have to go cross country, we have frame packs. That will be a pain in the ass, but there you go.

quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Building a house where the ground might kill me seems... unwise.
eh. it's all perspective. I think living in a place where you can have street crime and riots is effing nuts, gimme earthquake and volcano country any day of the week.

No place on earth is 100% safe. if that place existed, it would also be the most boring place on the planet.
 
Posted by Silver Faux (# 8783) on :
 
Grand Falls, Iowa probably comes close, comet.
 
Posted by Paddy O'Furniture (# 12953) on :
 
RE: Spiffy's comment, "... Hurricanes, however, scare the ever-loving crap out of me. You have to sit there for DAYS watching it come at you, bro."


Yeah, earthquakes don't scare me as much as these freaking killer thunderstorms and tornadoes down here in the South. Hurricanes aren't fun, either but at least if you know one is on the way, you hopefully have time to pack up and get out--tornadoes just come down and rip shit all to hell. Dreadful.
 
Posted by comet (# 10353) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
Grand Falls, Iowa probably comes close, comet.
three words.

Tore. Nay. Doze.

no frickin' thank you.
 
Posted by 205 (# 206) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
There are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns (which may be the only true thing that man ever said).
He sure had fun working the 'Media' though.
 
Posted by Niteowl2 (# 15841) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by comet:
quote:
Originally posted by Silver Faux:
Grand Falls, Iowa probably comes close, comet.
three words.

Tore. Nay. Doze.

no frickin' thank you.
It's always amazing that what we live with doesn't scare us while what other people live with can send us into panic attacks. Earthquakes don't bother me at all. I've been at work in a multi-story office building during a major earthquake watching walls and windows bow in and out with nary a care (maybe that's a mental defect on my part), but the thought of going through a tornado or hurricane gives me thoughts of not living in states that have them. I've talked with friends who say they'd NEVER, EVER live in California because of the earthquakes. I refer to quakes as a natural Disney ride. [Biased] (I told a friend of mine who moved here from Canada that and he told me later that my statement on the "natural Disney ride" is what kept him from panicking during his first ever earthquake)
 
Posted by Josephine (# 3899) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Personally, I think living on a tectonically quiet corner of a continent, on top of a hill, covers quite a few geotechnical hazards
MadGeo can certainly correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Australia is one of the most tectonically quiet places in the world.

Of course, in Australia, you get these.
 
Posted by Niteowl2 (# 15841) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Personally, I think living on a tectonically quiet corner of a continent, on top of a hill, covers quite a few geotechnical hazards
MadGeo can certainly correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Australia is one of the most tectonically quiet places in the world.

Of course, in Australia, you get these.
For most of those if you stay out of the water you should be fine. For the rest....

One on the list reminded me of the old Dr. Demento radio show and the song "There Was A Redback on Toilet Seat When I Was There Last Night".
 
Posted by Honest Ron Bacardi (# 38) on :
 
That list is just for starters. And they have left out the world's most venomous snake.
 
Posted by Mad Geo (# 2939) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by comet:
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:

I would absolutely keep that chocolate and peanut butter stocked up. Car too. (Not the chocolate though, in this heat) Californians almost cannot have good enough earthquake kits.
not really necessary to say this to californians, I know - but don't count on the car. earthquakes are hell on the road system. especially if you get liquefaction and flooding.

our family "Apocalyptic Doom" kit (named by the kids) can be fit in the car but also on a sled that can be harnessed onto one of us or the dogs. If the S hits the F in the summer and we have to go cross country, we have frame packs. That will be a pain in the ass, but there you go.

I would point out that the car "Apocalyptic Doom" kit is actually more about if you are stranded in your car away from your home, so you do not have access to your real kit.

During the Northridge earthquake, one of my staff was on his way to a job site when the freeway literally dropped out from under him and he was launched 4-feet vertically and landed on a lower section at 60 MPH. He actually worked his way around and off the freeway system and past the notorious collapsed interchange where the CHP officer died, using surface streets to get to the jobsite. Granted that wasn't the Big One, but I think it was a good example that it can be done even when the freeways are toast.
 
Posted by Lamb Chopped (# 5528) on :
 
For some odd reason my mother attempted to get me Very Concerned™ about a series of 4 pointers in SoCal this week. I think she forgets I grew up there. [Disappointed]
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
quote:
Originally posted by comet:
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:

I would absolutely keep that chocolate and peanut butter stocked up. Car too. (Not the chocolate though, in this heat) Californians almost cannot have good enough earthquake kits.
not really necessary to say this to californians, I know - but don't count on the car. earthquakes are hell on the road system. especially if you get liquefaction and flooding.

our family "Apocalyptic Doom" kit (named by the kids) can be fit in the car but also on a sled that can be harnessed onto one of us or the dogs. If the S hits the F in the summer and we have to go cross country, we have frame packs. That will be a pain in the ass, but there you go.

I would point out that the car "Apocalyptic Doom" kit is actually more about if you are stranded in your car away from your home, so you do not have access to your real kit.
Exactly. The most important things in my car kit are the sneakers and the water, so I can hoof it if I have to.
 
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Personally, I think living on a tectonically quiet corner of a continent, on top of a hill, covers quite a few geotechnical hazards
MadGeo can certainly correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Australia is one of the most tectonically quiet places in the world.

Of course, in Australia, you get these.
Australia is good. The central craton of Canada is also good. Siberia likewise.

I have been to Oz once, and the first day, I went to the zoo. Know your enemy.
 
Posted by Niteowl2 (# 15841) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Lamb Chopped:
For some odd reason my mother attempted to get me Very Concerned™ about a series of 4 pointers in SoCal this week. I think she forgets I grew up there. [Disappointed]
One So. Cal. board I used to be on looked with utter disdain upon anyone who even bothered to report anything less than a 5.0. We've had so many 4 pointers in the Yorba Linda area over the past several months it's almost routine.
 
Posted by Lamb Chopped (# 5528) on :
 
Yes indeed! I have dark suspicions that she is trying to reconcile me to the idea of never being able to afford to move back. [Waterworks]
 
Posted by orfeo (# 13878) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I have been to Oz once, and the first day, I went to the zoo. Know your enemy.
Okay for snakes, but I'm trying to think of any zoo that's shown me spiders.

Also, Australia's a big place. It's highly unlikely, for instance, that I've been within 1000 km of an Irkandji jellyfish, or a crocodile unless it's been behind a fence. If I went into the Australian tropics I'd probably be just as clueless and worried as any foreign tourist when it came to those sorts of things.

EDIT: But I did find two redback webs on the outside of my house the first year I was there. I showed zero mercy.

[ 13. August 2012, 03:00: Message edited by: orfeo ]
 
Posted by Tortuf (# 3784) on :
 
Yes. Australia is a really big place. People who live in the Northern Hemisphere tend to think of it as smaller than it is because of the maps we usually see, Mercator Projections. In a Mercator projection, Australia looks kinda small. Whereas, in reality Australia is about the same size as the continental US and bigger than Europe.
 
Posted by Loquacious beachcomber (# 8783) on :
 
Those who believe that Ontario and Quebec are free from volcanic threats should perhaps be aware of the Blake River Megacaldera Complex which spans the Ontario/Quebec border, meaning that area is susceptible to tornadoes, ice storms, the occasional hurrican, ittybitty earthquakes, and a super volcano capable of changing weather patterns and even creating a small ice age.
On the other hand, it is a great area to fish for yellow perch.
 
Posted by Zach82 (# 3208) on :
 
We got a hurricane here in Boston last year and it was the biggest let-down ever. [Waterworks]
 


© Ship of Fools 2016

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classicTM 6.5.0