Ship of Fools: Indian Election

Thread: Indian Election Board: Oblivion / Ship of Fools.

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Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :

The first polls are open in India but it will be a long time before we know the results. Will Modi win? If he does win, will he govern as a changed man or should Muslims be worried? Would a BJP victory cause saber-rattling with Pakistan that would be bad for those who want a stable, secular, democratic, and free-from-military-influence Pakistani government (as if such a thing ever existed)?

Does Congress have a chance? Is the Common Man Party more than just a protest party and would its MPs be sensible if they were invited to join a coalition? How likely is it that new regional parties aside from the traditional allies of Congress and the BJP will be necessary to form a coalition and which party are they more likely to support?

Does it make much difference for the Indian economy or for the welfare of the average poor or middle-class Indian who wins? Why/why not?

Posted by Desert Daughter (# 13635) on :

India is so large and complex that an election is unlikely to make any immediate, palpable difference to most people there.

Modi might well "win", interestingly enough he seems to have many supporters among middle-class Muslims (because of his business-friendly posturing). But he will be likely to be forced to form a coalition government.

The interesting new phenomenon in this year's election is the relative newcomer on the scene, the Aam Aadmi party under Arvind Kejrival. Kejrival himself is a very interesting figure, known and much-discussed for asking very simple, very pointed questions. He has a knack for making people think without resorting to traditional populist bleating.

Kejriwal's faith background is moderate (some would say, "enlightened", but let's not go there) Hinduism, influenced by the Ramakrishna school, but he lives a fairly secular life. Which makes him anathema to the hot-blooded Shiv Sena types (who are in coalition with Midi's BJP, something I find rather worrying). On the other hand, Kejrival does not pander to the unfettered pro-business faction who, too, are held in thrall by Modi's other face, so to speak.

Kejrival's recent successes can be explained in considerable part by the India Against Corruption movement that made headlines some years ago by a campaigner named Anna Hazare (they came under criticism, too, for their populist rhetoric, Hazare's hunger strikes etc, but they opened a nationwide discussion on corruption).

Krijwal has largely emancipated himself from IAC and has very much his own "branding" now.

IMHO he's got the potential and te legitimacy to replace the increasingly lacklustre Congress, especially under their rather unfortunately figurehead Rahul Gandhi. That being said, Congress is Congress, and there is a lot of inertia in the Indian political landscape.

Lastly, a factor that does not help is that many parties that are running are mainly regional (or coalitions of regional parties), with the old regional (i.e., state) stalwarts like Trinamool in West Bengal and DMDK in Tamil Nadu down to parties like the Sikkim Democratic Front, just interested in sending their representative to national parliament, not so much in all-Indian issues.

So the questions, for this sympathetic observer at least, are

1. When (rather than if) Modi wins, with whom will he need to collaborate?

and, relatedly,

2. Will Kerjiwal's success at the Delhi level be repeated at national level?

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :

I thought that the AAP's success in Delhi was disappointing because all they did was protest rather than govern.

Posted by PeteC (# 10422) on :

How is AAP success at the Delhi level explained by the fact that Arvind resigned Delhi after 40 days in power leaving Delhi in a power vacuum which still exists?

And don't forget the left-wing parties. LDF and CPI(M) and countless other permutations of both left and centre parties

First stage voting is now over; second stage voting takes place on the 10th.

India is such a vast, diverse country that voting will take place in various states at different times in April and early May. The vote will not be counted until May 12.

The party with the most seats past the post will be asked to form a government. This assumes that their allies are in agreement. The list of allies and opponents changes daily.

I would not be too sure the BJP will supply the prime minister. Modi is seen, in many circles, as a communalist and not at all a safe harbour in a secular government. He still has to answer many more questions about anti-Muslim behaviour, and Indian Christians are not likely to vote for BJP.
Nor will other religious minorities.

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :

The BJP Prime Ministers of the 1990's and early 2000s' were also Hindu nationalists that flamed racial/ethnic tensions from time to time. Modi has his unconscionable egging on of the bloodbath in Gujarat - and he does not seem to regret it, despite his current downplay in rhetoric - but would a BJP-led federal government now be any more extreme in its endorsement of Hindutva than the previous ones?

Posted by Welease Woderwick (# 10424) on :

Vajpayee was quite a moderate for the BJP when he was PM before the current government came to power two elections ago - many people thought of him as right man - wrong party.

Modi is a step beyond as an out and out communalist, he can deny it as much as he likes but the evidence is clear.

The AAP seems to be a party without any real policies - saying you are against corruption is one thing but what are you for?

Whatever happens it will almost certainly be a coalition government of the centre or the right, much though I love the idea I can't see the LDF groupings getting enough seats. Coalition necessitates compromise and the more extreme manifesto promises going out of the window - I doubt a Ram Temple in Ayodhya will happen soon.

Then there are the other questions:

- who governs - politicians or civil servants?

- how much sway does the centre have over the states?

- if the AAP gets seats are they going to be a cohesive enough group to be invited into coalition?

- where will the money come from to pay for it all?

Posted by moonlitdoor (# 11707) on :

The Gujaratis I know, which is only a handful of people, are all big fans of Narendra Modi and say that Hindu/Muslim relations in the state have been much better in the last few years than they were before he was chief minister.

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :

quote:
Originally posted by moonlitdoor:
The Gujaratis I know, which is only a handful of people, are all big fans of Narendra Modi and say that Hindu/Muslim relations in the state have been much better in the last few years than they were before he was chief minister.

But surely they got a lot worse while he was chief minister (ie, the riots) before they got better. Is he responsible in any way for their improvement?

Posted by moonlitdoor (# 11707) on :

well I am only repeating their opinions which I can't vouch for myself. But their point of view is that the 2002 riots were the culmination of a period of many years in which riots happened repeatedly, but that now there are no riots.

Posted by Kaplan Corday (# 16119) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Desert Daughter:
the hot-blooded Shiv Sena types (who are in coalition with Midi's BJP, something I find rather worrying).

The RSS, too, which Modi joined as a child.

When we worked in India during the '80s there was little mention of the BJP, but at the grass-roots level Indian Christians were very frightened of the RSS, as presumably were Muslims.

Posted by PeteC (# 10422) on :

Stage III is finished - 73.7% of Kerala voted.

In other news, Modi has changed his marital status between the two constituencies he is contesting.

Apparently he married some 45 years ago, separated shortly afterwards. Never divorced. Never supported his wife, who lives in a one-room tenement and earns a living as a primary school teacher (approximately CAD2000 per annum).

In all the years he has run for assembly and parliament, this is the first time he has admitted marriage on his nomination form. False statements on said form are a bar to standing for election.

If he lies in such things, how much should be be trusted to run a country?

Git.

Posted by Desert Daughter (# 13635) on :

The Modi news is interesting indeed. But does it make sufficient headlines in the Indian press? Does not seem so. Apparently it was "just" one of those arranged marriages when he was very young (17, I think). What counts more in the eyes of his stauncher sympathisers is the image of the celibate RSS member he so carefully built up in early years.

As for the AAP, interesting short article on the mentality behind what they stand for at Tehelka.com, here . As an aside, what do indophile shipmates think of Tehelka?

Lastly, what really worries me is the degree to which the discourse of this election is laden with issues of Hindu-Muslim "tension". Is it just my interpretation or is this sort of "us-and-them" talk on the increase again?

Posted by PeteC (# 10422) on :

Regarding the us-them tensions, the answer is a qualified yes. Here in the south, not so much, but in the North it is a whole 'nother story.

Although the BJPers have coated our neighbourhood with signage, I don't see them making much headway here. The struggle is between the Congress allies and the LDF.

We'll see. Even if BJP take the most seats it is very unlikely to be a majority of seats. Coalitions have a habit of watering down most hard-line policies.

It will be very interesting to follow results on May 12. Since I will be home by then, I will be scouring the on-line edition of The Hindu and badgering WW.

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :

What parties in government would be most likely at this point to both promote sustainable economic development and reduce poverty in a lasting way? And reduce corruption? Which of these three things is most important right now? Can any of these three things happen without the others?

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