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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: A Canadian Election
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
So as it is the longest election in Canadian history*,** and there still hasn't been a Purg thread on it, and the writ was dropped four weeks ago, here it is.
Of interest Tom Mulcair will be making a SECOND appearance in Peterborough tomorrow, conveniently after work so I can attend. The Central Campaign wouldn't send him back to Peterborough unless they thought the riding was in play. ![[Yipee]](graemlins/spin.gif)
*since the advent of single-day national polling in 1876, and even before since the writ wasn't even dropped at the same time.
**Yes, yes, the Americans among the Ship's crew can stop laughing now.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
The main problem with Canada is that Ontario and Quebec vote and the rest of us in the centre and west and in the Martimes and Nfld don't matter because you have so many seats. But that's also because you have all those people. Which you may please keep.
But this time, it looks like it matters because the parties are close, and with redistribution we may get something other than Harper-Cons. Here's hoping.
Election day is 19 Oct. Which SPK seems to have missed in my read of this with bifocal eyes on a phone.
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
The main problem with Canada is that Ontario and Quebec vote and the rest of us in the centre and west and in the Martimes and Nfld don't matter because you have so many seats. But that's also because you have all those people. Which you may please keep.
But this time, it looks like it matters because the parties are close, and with redistribution we may get something other than Harper-Cons. Here's hoping.
Election day is 19 Oct. Which SPK seems to have missed in my read of this with bifocal eyes on a phone.
So that we do not mislead the occasional US reader who might think, on the parallel of votes for the electoral college where generally winner-takes-all, here voters choose individual MPs by district. In most provinces, we end up with MPs of different parties (Alberta & Newfoundland have often only elected MPs of the same party).
It is now five weeks before the election, which is our normal length of campaign. With several debates coming, it is too soon to make any predictions -- looking at analyses, I think that over two-thirds of seats are in play-- but there might well be some significant shifts to come. Certainly the Conservatives did not expect to be in third place at this point.
I did a walk to the west end yesterday (about 14km) and the sign war in Ottawa Centre seems to be just over half NDP, the rest Liberal, and only a small sprinkling of Conservative, but this might have to do with Conservatives not wanting to embarrass themselves in front of their neighbours. My Conservative contacts are a bit too frazzled these days to chat, so I'm not sure what is happening there internally, but I gather that they are having trouble getting volunteers to do second and third canvasses, blaming this on people not having yet closed up their cottages.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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John Holding
Coffee and Cognac
# 158
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Posted
Last week, before the refugee crisis hit, I noticed a comment by John Ibbotson (not a notably Liberal or NDP commentator). After more or less pooh-poohing a supposed "senior Liberal"s thought that the Conservatives might be about to implode, he continued: "But... campaigns that are falling apart have a certain stench. And I'm beginning to catch a whiff..."
Checking the Eric Grenier poll analysis on the CBC site, what his "poll of polls" seems to me to be suggesting seems unbelievable in the case of BC and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, though the rest of the region by region predictions appear to be, if unlikely, at least within the ball park. A decline in the NDP seats in Ontario, for example, could happen but...
John
Posts: 5929 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: May 2001
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
The Conservative campaign office in Peterborough is right across the street from my place of work. My work neighbourhood is currently suffering from urban blight. ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
OTOH, I just got back from an NDP Rally in the South End which had a packed house of 400 people. Mulcair came to speak. ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
Ah, lovely Momentum. How wonderful are thy ways.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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Stercus Tauri
Shipmate
# 16668
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Posted
The neighbours noted in another thread now have lawn signs out for all three parties - one for each family member... Interestingly, the Tory is the only one who doesn't have his unlovely face on the big signs around the town.
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Thay haif said. Quhat say thay, Lat thame say (George Keith, 5th Earl Marischal)
Posts: 905 | From: On the traditional lands of the Six Nations. | Registered: Sep 2011
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
I'm afraid I don't really follow Canadian politics. What's the reasons for the Tories' recent dip in popularity?
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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sharkshooter
Not your average shark
# 1589
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Posted
The incumbent government is often lower in the polls because, as the government, they had to make the hard decisions for the past number of years. Something the opposition and the third and lower parties have not had to do. It is easy to be the opposition and even easier to be the third, fourth, etc. party, because you have not had to upset anybody, and you can promise the moon and the stars.
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Let the words of my mouth, and the meditation of my heart, be acceptable in thy sight, O LORD, my strength, and my redeemer. [Psalm 19:14]
Posts: 7772 | From: Canada; Washington DC; Phoenix; it's complicated | Registered: Oct 2001
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
I think it is different at the moment than incumbency as you've suggested. It's a different form of that. It's a pursuit of ideological goals, the avoidance of actual data, and the presentation of themselves and their ideas as the answer. Any time a party says they have simple answers to complex questions, they should be tossed. In the Conservative situation, they currently believe that unbridled resource exploitation, money and business are the Way. They ignore and even suppress contrary data, about quality of life and science. I shudder to think about personal debt levels due to high consumer prices and what will happen when interest rates move up.
In Saskatchewan, of 14 seats, we will continue to have one Liberal (Ralph Goodale) in Regina, and will elect 2 or 3 NDP in Saskatoon, 1 or 2 NDP in Regina, and the rest of it will probly continue with Conservative. Thank God for reorganization of boundaries of ridings so that urban are not washed out by rural.
Manitoba will have probably an equivalent number of NDP/Liberals, i.e. non-Conservative. Let's hope both get at least that many non-Cons.
(I have lived most recently in both of these provinces, and also in Alberta, which I am no longer qualified to comment about all given the recent provincial Orange Crush)
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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sharkshooter
Not your average shark
# 1589
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
... It's a pursuit of ideological goals, ...
All parties do that - it is a matter of picking the ones you prefer.
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Let the words of my mouth, and the meditation of my heart, be acceptable in thy sight, O LORD, my strength, and my redeemer. [Psalm 19:14]
Posts: 7772 | From: Canada; Washington DC; Phoenix; it's complicated | Registered: Oct 2001
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Beeswax Altar
Shipmate
# 11644
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Posted
Sorry, SPK...you guys already had an election recently. Cameron gets to remain prime minister. Better luck next time.
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Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible.
-Og: King of Bashan
Posts: 8411 | From: By a large lake | Registered: Jul 2006
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sharkshooter
Not your average shark
# 1589
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
Sorry, SPK...you guys already had an election recently. ...
It was 4 years ago that we last had a federal election.
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Let the words of my mouth, and the meditation of my heart, be acceptable in thy sight, O LORD, my strength, and my redeemer. [Psalm 19:14]
Posts: 7772 | From: Canada; Washington DC; Phoenix; it's complicated | Registered: Oct 2001
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
Sorry, SPK...you guys already had an election recently. Cameron gets to remain prime minister. Better luck next time.
You have either posted to the wrong thread or demonstrated an oft-stated stereotype I wish you had not.
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
Sorry, SPK...you guys already had an election recently. Cameron gets to remain prime minister. Better luck next time.
Others have noted that you are confusing one of Our Glorious Sovereign's other realms with the polar bear-infested one. But I would mention that one of the charming vagaries of the parliamentary system, as Margaret Thatcher and Neville Chamberlain (among others, including Sir John A Macdonald) have discovered, is that becoming Prime Minister after an election does not necessarily mean that you get to keep the job until the next election.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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Beeswax Altar
Shipmate
# 11644
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Posted
Won't the NDP have to elect that Corbyn fellow as party leader before you can have another election?
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Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible.
-Og: King of Bashan
Posts: 8411 | From: By a large lake | Registered: Jul 2006
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John Holding
Coffee and Cognac
# 158
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Posted
BA -- to be quite blunt, making the same point as AtheA did but in a way you might find clearer, this thread is about Canada. You are talking about the United Kingdom. These are different countries.
That should be clear enough even for you, assuming ( as I must) that you are not deliberating trolling.
John
Posts: 5929 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: May 2001
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Uncle Pete
Loyaute me lie
# 10422
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
Won't the NDP have to elect that Corbyn fellow as party leader before you can have another election?
Perhaps you might consider starting a thread in Heaven to discuss your ignorance. Corbyn is running to lead the Labour Party of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, of which Canada is NOT a part.
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Even more so than I was before
Posts: 20466 | From: No longer where I was | Registered: Sep 2005
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Beeswax Altar
Shipmate
# 11644
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Posted
I'm sorry. I was just trying to give SPK a hard time.
Here...
The last time I checked the NDP led in the polls which is unsurprising given the Tories makeup and time in power. I'm surprised the Liberals are in second place after their implosion four years ago. Still, all three parties are essentially neck and neck. NDP seems to be slipping in the polls. I wonder if some Canadians like them as a protest vote but don't trust them to actually govern.
[ 10. September 2015, 19:27: Message edited by: Beeswax Altar ]
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Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible.
-Og: King of Bashan
Posts: 8411 | From: By a large lake | Registered: Jul 2006
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
As of today, the CBC is reporting that the seat possibilities between the three parties suggest 105 for the Conservatives, 113 for the NDP, and 119 for the Liberals. Note that this week would be the normal starting point for a campaign ending on October 19 so any poll results at this stage are more likely pertinent for the campaigns as they unroll, rather on the final result. While people may wish to order their champagne for the result, they should not place large wagers on the results.
A lot can happen in five weeks. When this campaign began, I had several sage folk assure me that there could well be a Conservative majority. Who knows where we'll be in October.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
Oh? Global News has an NDP lead, and Eric Grenier's reaults at CBC are due to one Nanos poll, if you check his results.
And the NDP's serious election ad campaign starts today.
The results from Quebec are still looking mighty fine.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Oh? Global News has an NDP lead, and Eric Grenier's reaults at CBC are due to one Nanos poll, if you check his results.
And the NDP's serious election ad campaign starts today.
The results from Quebec are still looking mighty fine.
Exactly. At this point, they are useful indicators, but nothing on which to place real money. I have, however, placed money on a few individual seats, and am optimistic. In any case I am off to the Yukon in a few hours and will doubtless hear tales of the local Conservative candidate who apparently keeps handcuffs in his car for citizen arrest purposes. If only Robert Service were here to sing his tale.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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PaulBC
Shipmate
# 13712
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Posted
Even if this a long campagin it's a better way than in the SA. Their system is well a puzzlement, confounds the mind and is eith/or borinng or insulting.
Who'll win . Only HE knows for sure . ![[Smile]](smile.gif) ![[Angel]](graemlins/angel.gif) ![[Votive]](graemlins/votive.gif)
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"He has told you O mortal,what is good;and what does the Lord require of youbut to do justice and to love kindness ,and to walk humbly with your God."Micah 6:8
Posts: 873 | From: Victoria B.C. Canada | Registered: May 2008
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Bibliophile:
I'm afraid I don't really follow Canadian politics. What's the reasons for the Tories' recent dip in popularity?
A four year old boy named Alan Kurdi washed up on a beach in Turkey, having drowned in an attempt by his family to get out of Syria and to the EU.
Instead of doing the normal thing and throwing open the doors during a refugee crisis, Harper doubled-down on military action and no increase in refugee intake.
The Globe & Mail has a report that the Tories have brought in a high-level strategist from Ausralia to 'reboot' their campaign. Their ship is going down, fast.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
I'd be interesting in comments on the spin doctor, who operated in Australian, and UK elections. Lynton Crosby. He's said to be anti just about everything.
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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sharkshooter
Not your average shark
# 1589
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
As of today, the CBC is reporting ...
Most of the polls, whether liberal or conservative biased, are reporting basically a statistical 3-way tie. I think that would be a good result.
Then, perhaps nothing substantial will get done, except for running the government (wow, what a concept!). And, hopefully, at least one of the parties will elect a new leader - perhaps we can pull a statesman out of the woodwork somewhere.
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Let the words of my mouth, and the meditation of my heart, be acceptable in thy sight, O LORD, my strength, and my redeemer. [Psalm 19:14]
Posts: 7772 | From: Canada; Washington DC; Phoenix; it's complicated | Registered: Oct 2001
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
I'd be interesting in comments on the spin doctor, who operated in Australian, and UK elections. Lynton Crosby. He's said to be anti just about everything.
Well he ran a spectacularly successful election campaign for the UK Tories this year. They were also thought to be in trouble but he produced a win for them, although to be fair he had been with the UK Tories for longer before the election.
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
I'd be interesting in comments on the spin doctor, who operated in Australian, and UK elections. Lynton Crosby. He's said to be anti just about everything.
If you want to know about Crosby's style here's an ad he did attacking the Australian Labor Party in the 2004 election
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-M6GpuUTJ0E
And here's a nearly identical ad attacking UK Labour in the 2015 election
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=23&v=0oo5ZbQDfwY
In both elections the party Crosby was working for not only won but increased their seat share so he's obviously good at his job.
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
Anti Immigration? Not going to work for his new client, the Tories are as pro-immigration as any party in Canada and have made great hay courting the Immigrant vote in the GTA and Vancouver. So that's a self-inflicted wound waiting to happen.
Anti Labour? The Federal Government has little to do with labour issues, which general fall under provincial jurisdiction. Good luck getting the public to understand Bill C-525, the unions couldn't get the public to understand either.
Religious divide? See the first item for what will happen if Harper goes too anti-Muslim.
And then there's the recession to dampen Harper's economic claims.
So ![[Snore]](graemlins/snore.gif)
Attack ads? The NDP has it's own attack ads: See here.
That's my former MP being led away in shackles after his conviction for election offences. By happy coincidence the Conservative candidate's office in this riding is conveniently only a block away from the same provincial court house. ![[Two face]](graemlins/scot_twoface.gif)
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
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Posted
SPK wrote:
quote:
Anti Immigration? Not going to work for his new client, the Tories are as pro-immigration as any party in Canada and have made great hay courting the Immigrant vote in the GTA and Vancouver. So that's a self-inflicted wound waiting to happen.
Well, the Harper Conservatives have kind of mastered the art of dog-whistling in both directions.
Yes, they show up at the ethnic barbecues to hand out the cheques and dress their Immigration Minister up in turbans or whatever the apt sartorials are for a given occassion.
But then, they also push for unveiled citizenship-oaths, and newcomers' guides that denounce FMG(as if any practitioner of that will be dissuaded by a pamphlet), and get-tough on queue-jumping refugees.
And for the most part, they've gotten away with it, because these measures only target a tiny percentage of the immigrant community, and(contrary to the wishes of progressive utopians), a lot of immigrants don't regard "an attack on one as an attack on all". A Korean Christian who thinks all non-believers are going to hell probably doesn't care if Harper makes disparaging remarks about Muslim headgear, as long as the funds for his church's bulgogi barbecue come through.
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
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Soror Magna
Shipmate
# 9881
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Posted
Exactly. The Harperites don't have to make immigrants all over Canada like them; they just have to convince the ones who live in certain ridings to vote for them.
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"You come with me to room 1013 over at the hospital, I'll show you America. Terminal, crazy and mean." -- Tony Kushner, "Angels in America"
Posts: 5430 | From: Caprica City | Registered: Jul 2005
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Anti Labour? The Federal Government has little to do with labour issues, which general fall under provincial jurisdiction. Good luck getting the public to understand Bill C-525, the unions couldn't get the public to understand either.
The massive cutbacks to federal public service and now apparently having a whopping surplus looks like a terrible disconnect to me. As if departments giving money back is a good. ![[Projectile]](graemlins/puke2.gif)
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Uncle Pete
Loyaute me lie
# 10422
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Posted
Yet another CON bites the dust!
This would be ![[Killing me]](graemlins/killingme.gif) if it weren't so pathetic. All the parties have had trouble with prospective MPs, but the CON party more than others.
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Even more so than I was before
Posts: 20466 | From: No longer where I was | Registered: Sep 2005
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Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Uncle Pete:
Yet another CON bites the dust!
This would be if it weren't so pathetic. All the parties have had trouble with prospective MPs, but the CON party more than others.
I don't quite understand his comments about race and Hollywood. I'm guessing that most people don't either, since the CBC didn't see fit to put them in a clarifying context.
As for his comments that he'd only date someone who did soft drugs, but not hard drugs, I'd say that's probably the opinion of many people across the political spectrum. Marijuana yes, crystal meth, no.
The abortion comments are problematic, though it's not any secret that Harper has MPs who oppose abortion, and have tried to place restrictions on it. So, I'm not sure what makes this case so exceptional. His use of the word "irresponsible"? The fact that it's an election?
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
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John Holding
Coffee and Cognac
# 158
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Posted
Stetson -- his comments about only dating someone who used pot may well be, indeed I believe are, mainstream among Canadians. But the party he wanted to represent in Parliament KNOWS that POT IS EVIL and cannot be tolerated in any way at any time.
Meanwhile, it appears another Liberal candidate has bitten the dust, this time in Edmonton. Surely it's the NDP's turn next.
John
Posts: 5929 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: May 2001
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
Ahem, we learned our lesson after Québec in 2011 so we vetted ALL our candidates.
Besides, the first candidate who steps out of line will be crucified by the party membership for ruining our shot at power. It's the same reason everyone was so well dressed at the last Federal Convention.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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Uncle Pete
Loyaute me lie
# 10422
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
It's the same reason everyone was so well dressed at the last Federal Convention.
Just another sure sign that the Dippers are indistinguishable from the Libruls.. I note they're shooting themselves in the foot again, and the Tories will sneak up the middle as their vote collapses.
It's a sad, sad day for the Left.
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Even more so than I was before
Posts: 20466 | From: No longer where I was | Registered: Sep 2005
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)
Oh ye of little faith.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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Uncle Pete
Loyaute me lie
# 10422
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Posted
Insofar as politics are concerned I lost faith many years ago. 30 second sound bites as opposed to serious discussions are as dead as a dodo. Bob Rae demonstrated that in the 1994 convention when he came down on the side of Sunday shopping and over-rode Convention. Power brokers rule. The people are no longer heard. I certainly wasn't terribly surprised when he joined the Federal Liberals. The man has no principles. I expect Mulcair will be sucked into the power vortex if he ever wins.
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Even more so than I was before
Posts: 20466 | From: No longer where I was | Registered: Sep 2005
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John Holding
Coffee and Cognac
# 158
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Posted
If its any comfort, the current party in power has been in campaign mode since the morning after the last election. In effect, their campaign has been around four years long, not 11 weeks.
John
Posts: 5929 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: May 2001
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John Holding
Coffee and Cognac
# 158
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Posted
Only since the 2011 election. Before that, there was a certain amount of decorum. Since the present government got a majority, all sense of decency has departed.
John
Posts: 5929 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: May 2001
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stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
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Posted
Since this election has a decent chance of producing a minority government, how is it that the Canadian political system seems to be able to handle minority governments with greater stability than in other countries? Canadian minority governments, whatever challenges they may have, seem to last longer and function better than minority governments elsewhere. Why is this? Do Canadian parties have lower party discipline that allow majorities to be built to pass laws one at a time?
And why don't the Canadian people ever talk seriously about coalitions, given that Canada seems even farther from a two-party system than the UK and regularly produces election results with no majority for any party even with a first past the post system?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
I wouldn't say it's more stable than other countries, but Canada has minority governments far more than the other Westminster democracies do. We haven't had a completely two-party system since 1921.
The stability, such as it is, is that as minorities in Canada are a mixture of the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP in provinces that are prone to minorities and at the Federal level, and there are few coalition partners. I really can't see a Tory/NDP coalition, can you?
There has never been a case where a third party supports a minority government and then switches sides and supports another party in forming a government without an election. Most parties in that position feel there is more to gain from an election.
It usually takes two and half years for the opposition to build up sufficient steam to campaign against a minority government on its record and force an election.
In fact, party discipline in Canada is incredibly tight, tighter than even in the British House of Commons, but in the modern period the trend has been a minority government to cut deals on a bill-by-bill basis as this leaves all parties with the most flexibility. But this is a case where the House Leaders, the caucus MP's from all parties charged with managing the agenda of the house, procedure matters and shepherding bills through the Commons.
And the reason nobody talks about forming coalitions is that nobody wants to be the junior partner. See the Country/National Party in Australia or the recent Lib Dems in the UK for examples.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
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Posted
So if deals are cut on a bill by bill basis in a minority government and parties tend to vote in lock step in Parliament, that means that any party that joins the government for a particular bill can be blamed for that bill. Did the NDP, Liberals, and Bloc (back when they mattered) take turns joining in on bills as a whole party when Harper had minority governments? Was there ever much backlash to being in bed with the Tories even if it was just on a single bill (or a single budget)? And did the Tories (or their predecessor parties) ever help get budgets and bills passed when there was a Liberal minority government? Did they suffer backlash as a result? And how much compromise would a party that joined in on a particular bill or budget insist upon? Would a non-government party ever insist on getting a bill of its own passed or at least voted on as a condition of supporting the PM in votes of confidence?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
Yes, during the Harper Minorities all three parties took turns supporting Harper. Each would vote for the bill that did not offend their core supporters; as for the budget it was a bidding game. Of course the price for supporting a minority was that you wouldn't get much traction by growing your support, you'd just keep your base. But it was a taste of power.
There were a few instances of the opposition parties forcing non-government bills through the House, but they were killed in the Senate. Budgets are a different matter, as they are on their face confidence matters.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
Stonespring asks a few questions:
quote:
Was there ever much backlash to being in bed with the Tories even if it was just on a single bill (or a single budget)?
Of course, and the NDP attacked the Liberals for doing so on several occasions and, less frequently, the Liberals attacked the NDP. Generally, there was little criticism among party activists for, while they were most unhappy with it all, they realized that there was little to be done about it, and generally they had confidence in their party's parliamentary managers.
quote:
And did the Tories (or their predecessor parties) ever help get budgets and bills passed when there was a Liberal minority government? Did they suffer backlash as a result?
I think that I'd have to spend a fair bit of time to research this question to find an instance. Normally it was a matter of the NDP backing a Liberal government measure (for which the price was exacted in several ways, most frequently through improvement of the legislation involved but, in the case of budget measures, by adopting particular NDP requests).
Often there was turmoil among Tories when some Conservatives supported a particular government measure-- there were some fights dating back to Joe Clark days. In Mr Stanfield's period as leader (1967-1976), he and Mr Trudeau negotiated a number of things directly, which caused some bitterness in the PC caucus at that time.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
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Posted
If the three largest parties are almost tied in their share of votes in the election results, and the party with the largest number of seats in the House of Commons is very far from majority, will a stable minority government be possible? Will there be likely another election in not too much time because of the instability of such a result? It seems that NDP and Liberal voters at the federal level share much more in common politically than they do with Conservative voters, at least based on polls of what two parties voters are considering voting for. Would either some kind of bargain (although perhaps not a coalition) to allow for a stable government or even electoral reform (ie, IRV or some kind of PR) to prevent the Conservatives from getting a majority or a near-majority from a much smaller share of the votes be possible?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
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John Holding
Coffee and Cognac
# 158
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Posted
In pure theory (which none of the party leaders seem to know), Harper can continue as PM until he has to meet the House of COmmons. As long as he can win a vote of confidence, he can carry on. THe longer he is able to carry on, the more likely it is that he will continue to carry on.
Theory says that if he loses his first vote of confidence he has to go to the GG and resign. If this is the first vote of the session, the GG can ask anyone else -- but in reality the leader of the (next) largest party if he can command a majority. At which point negotiations begin. The result need not be a coalition -- because of our history, probably not. But two parties could agree on legislation and a program, probably to cover up to 2 years after which an election would happen.
Harper has already said he will not carry on without at least a plurality. Which gets the GG into action at once.
John
Posts: 5929 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: May 2001
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
What will happen if there be a three-way tie? Stability is not necessarily connected with numbers, but with the will of the parties to make it work.
In any case, the GG's real headache would be if Mr Harper announced departure on election night, à la Paul Martin in 2006. Either he could seek the departing PM's advice on whom to summons (I'd like to be a fly on the wall for that conversation) or he would summon the party leader with the larger number of MPs. Several European countries (Netherlands, for example) have protocols all laid out for the sovereign, but normally things have been made pretty clear by the parties-- one of my constitutional contacts states that it is the duty of party leaders to not place the Crown in a difficult position. But as John Holding notes, none of our party leaders appear to have more than a tenuous grasp on our constitution. Would that they be made to read Eugene Forsey's book on taking office.
But this might be a bit much like Gilbert & Sullivan's Iolanthe, where parliamentarians would be selected through competitive examination.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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