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Posted by Belle Ringer (# 13379) on :
 
I'm finding EU politics as puzzling as USA politics these days, for different reasons.

*IF* I am reading correctly (I read a lot of alternate news because mainstream media are mostly silent on this stuff, but I don't know what is reliable), Greece is finding itself the landing place of 2000 uninvited people per day, many fleeing war zones, and a probability of the rate of arrival increasing to last year's level as weather warms. (A Telegraph article says over 50,000 arrived in Greece in one week last October.)

Meanwhile, neighboring countries have erected barriers, forcing the new arrivals to stay in Greece, forcing Greece to house them in parks and stadiums and come up with ever larger amounts of food, clothes, bedding etc.

Meanwhile, EU is mad at Greece (I've lost track of various cross-accusations about not providing promised help).

As of today you become appointed head of Greece. Another 2000 migrants are on their way right now. They would like to land and move on (to Germany, Sweden, UK, etc) but can't.

What do you think Greece should do?

Not what should it have done in the past. Not what should other countries do that Greece has no control over whether they actually do (like "tear down the barriers" or "send Greece lots of aid" -- which whether or not a good idea Greece can't force other countries.)

The way is blocked, the camps are overfull, Greece is financially strapped even without this pressure on resources, another 2000 people are coming tomorrow. You are the boss of Greece. Not of EU, just of Greece. What do you do?
 
Posted by orfeo (# 13878) on :
 
Probably something like "we can't afford to both look after these people and repay your loans, so choose".
 
Posted by Anselmina (# 3032) on :
 
This article helps to put things into better, though no less depressing perspective.

Hard to know what Greece can do. Geographically they're the first step along the way for Syria and surrounding areas, even though it's plain from asylum applications they're far from being the actual target destination for most migrants.
 
Posted by Golden Key (# 1468) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Probably something like "we can't afford to both look after these people and repay your loans, so choose".
Any chance the EU would be willing to trade loan forgiveness for looking after the refugees?
 
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Probably something like "we can't afford to both look after these people and repay your loans, so choose".
This.

Followed by:

1) Greece has been painted as the irresponsible villain and the causes of the problem. This is only partly true. The French and German banks were also responsible for the mess. However the greatest problem is the failed enforce austerity from 2010.
2) The Greek people have paid the price several times over and
3) We do not have the resources to cope with this influx

Therefore:

4) We will leave the Euro in 3 months unless you come up with fair debt-forgiveness and refugee management plans
5) We will annouce this publically in 6 weeks time

AFZ
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
So the Ploío ton Anóitoi party wins the next election over Syriza on a real, responsible, radical Christian platform consisting of ... what?
 
Posted by molopata (# 9933) on :
 
My guess is that at some point Greece will stop the ferry connections to its worst-hit islands, precipitating a severely humanitarian situation on the likes of Lesbos which cannot be ignored by the EU. Then the EU will step in with emergency assistance and they will be run roughly the same way as Australia runs Easter Island. New routes to Europe will open up, not necessarily through Greece, and it will reduce migration, as travel will be more difficult. The traffickers will move with the markets.
 
Posted by Doublethink. (# 1984) on :
 
Well, if it were me ...

I would trade debt forgiveness for refugee accommodation.

Then I would exit the euro, pay all residents (including asylum seekers formally registered with givernment) a basic income - which is recovered through taxation if people were earning - and allow aylum seekers who have registered with the government to work whilst their claims are processed.

This will give the economy a massive economic boost, which it desperately needs, and greatly reduce the cost of accomodating the refugees. It would also massively incentivise the population to give financial details to the government, which can then be used to improve tax collection and detect money laundering.

I would set up safe passage across the med to Greece - I know this seems counter-intuitive. However, if you were a refugee would you wait for the free safe ferry - even if it meant waiting longer - or would you chance it with a trafficker ? So hopeful reduce deaths and rescue costs, regulate speed of the flow of people and undercut the criminal gangs. Condition of passage on the ferry, proper registration - name, prints and DNA.

Then we'd at least know who was in the country.

[ 28. February 2016, 21:18: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
 
Posted by simontoad (# 18096) on :
 
If it were me, I would have a breakdown and start gambling again.
 
Posted by orfeo (# 13878) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by molopata:
Then the EU will step in with emergency assistance and they will be run roughly the same way as Australia runs Easter Island.
It's Christmas Island, and we don't send people there any more. We ship them off to Nauru, an independent country.

Although let's not get into just how independent. It's... awkward.
 
Posted by Golden Key (# 1468) on :
 
molopata--

quote:
Originally posted by molopata:
Then the EU will step in with emergency assistance and they will be run roughly the same way as Australia runs Easter Island. New routes to Europe will open up, not necessarily through Greece, and it will reduce migration, as travel will be more difficult. The traffickers will move with the markets.
Clarification, please? Is the Australia-Easter Island comment sarcasm? As in Australia doesn't have anything to do with Easter Island, and the EU won't bother with the refugees in Greece? (I double-checked online, to make sure there isn't more than one Easter Island.)

Thx.
 
Posted by molopata (# 9933) on :
 
[Hot and Hormonal]
Yes, Christmas Island, if course.
On a more secular board they have noticed the difference!
 
Posted by Alan Cresswell (# 31) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:

I would set up safe passage across the med to Greece - I know this seems counter-intuitive. However, if you were a refugee would you wait for the free safe ferry - even if it meant waiting longer - or would you chance it with a trafficker ? So hopeful reduce deaths and rescue costs, regulate speed of the flow of people and undercut the criminal gangs. Condition of passage on the ferry, proper registration - name, prints and DNA.
Though, in theory that is already sort-of happening. The UK, for example, has said that we will take refugees directly from the camps in Turkey and Lebanon rather than those who have travelled across Europe themselves. Precisely in order to reduce the market opportunities for the traffikers. The problem is that the numbers of refugees that will be transported by such routes is far too small, and to too few countries - there needs to be tens of thousands more refugees flown to the UK, to Scandanavia, to Switzerland, to the US and Canada, to Australia ...
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Probably something like "we can't afford to both look after these people and repay your loans, so choose".
This is the just and equitable thing to say, but I suspect that either outcome - not looking after refugees, or refusing to repay their debts - would hurt Greece more than the EU.
 
Posted by molopata (# 9933) on :
 
Yes. Possibly sending Greece the same way as some counties in the ME and at which point Greeks would start to join the migrants on their trudge north en masse.
 
Posted by L'organist (# 17338) on :
 
What the other EU nations fail to take into account is the lousy relationship between Turkey and Greece - a hangover from Ottoman Empire days.

There is a feeling that the Turks aren't just 'allowing' the refugees to set off from the Turkish shore, which is true, but that it is Turkish people traffickers who are making a lot of money from this trade in misery: this is also true, although ignoring that there are other people traffickers there making money, including some from Syria and other ME countries.

Lesbos is less than 4 miles from the Turkish coast and there has always been some traffic between the two: just how is cash-strapped Greece meant to police this narrow strip of sea? And there are other islands (such as Samos) which are almost as close to the mainland: how does a country which has only 6 smaller patrol boats begin to look at patrolling the myriad small inlets and coves within relatively easy reach of the Turkish mainland? So far the EU has provided no help on this front at all, and precious little in the way of humanitarian supplies to be used once the refugees have landed. The people of Lesbos have been extraordinarily generous, but it is a small island which is reliant on tourism for money.

So: what should the Greek government do? If I were Greek today I'd sidestep the EU and go direct to the UN for help.
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
Greece should do what NO OTHER country has done, Germany and Turkey included: 'I was a stranger and you invited me in'.
 
Posted by Belle Ringer (# 13379) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Greece should do what NO OTHER country has done, Germany and Turkey included: 'I was a stranger and you invited me in'.
In what way has Germany NOT invited the stranger? I thought the offer was and continues to be unlimited, including another expected million or more in 2016 plus multi million family members.

As to Greece, at some point there is no room in the inn, not because anyone wants to turn away paying customers but because the inn really is full, the only way to house the pregnant lady and her husband would be to kick your kids out into the cold.

Greece has an unemployment rate of 25%, youth unemployment 50%, 75% of the unemployed have been out of work for over a year. The debt is almost twice the annual GDP. This is not a country with lots of resources sitting around unused.

To what extent is a country obligated to not only offer a stranger an existing spare bed, but build new structures at the host's expense for the stranger to live in free indefinitely?

I'm not convinced "take in the stranger" means "take in so many strangers you have to build a whole new inn just to hold them all."

But I'm also aware with a twist of political fate this sort of migration to escape violence could happen to any of us.
 
Posted by L'organist (# 17338) on :
 
What seems to go ignored or left unsaid is that the muslim world (with the exceptions of Lebanon and Turkey, both secular states) have done precisely nothing for the refugees from Syria and other stated in the ME which are in turmoil. True, Iran have tried to supply some help to fellow Shia but other than that, nothing.

When one considers the vast wealth that the gulf states, in particular, have at their disposal their failure to step up to the plate is monstrous.

In the cases of Greece and Turkey, for example, the richer gulf states could at the very least make sure that they have sufficient money to pay for good temporary accommodation: they could go further and provide interpreters for Greece, bureaucrats to aid with registering people, etc, etc, etc.

The silence and inaction from the UAE and others is breathtaking.
 
Posted by LeRoc (# 3216) on :
 
quote:
Belle Ringer: This is not a country with lots of resources sitting around unused.
But their is a resource coming in right now.
 
Posted by simontoad (# 18096) on :
 
pet peeve: people smugglers as perjorative. Many many people crossed the Iron Curtain with the help of people smugglers.

Les Murray was one, in 1956. He went on to have a successful career as a broadcaster on SBS, our TV channel with the charter to focus on migrant issues. Here's an article about him. Les Murray thing

[ 01. March 2016, 13:16: Message edited by: simontoad ]
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
What seems to go ignored or left unsaid is that the muslim world (with the exceptions of Lebanon and Turkey, both secular states) have done precisely nothing for the refugees from Syria and other stated in the ME which are in turmoil.
That's assuming you don't count Egypt or Jordan as Muslim. The countries not pulling their weight are the Gulf states.
 
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Belle Ringer: This is not a country with lots of resources sitting around unused.
But their is a resource coming in right now.
I presume you mean the asylum seekers themselves, so are you suggesting that Greece should make asylum seekers work without pay to build camps for themselves? I'm no bleeding-heart lefty, but even to me that seems a bit off. And even if that is what you're suggesting, where are the materials to build said camps going to come from?
 
Posted by LeRoc (# 3216) on :
 
LOL, you're reading a lot in my suggestion that isn't actually there.
 
Posted by Alan Cresswell (# 31) on :
 
I don't think it's unreasonable to employ asylum seekers to help improve conditions for themselves and others. Of course, that requires resources to pay them and to provide the materials needed. Alongside employment for residents as well, otherwise there will just be a load more resentment. Not just brickies to build accomodation. It would be better to have Syrian teachers teaching, Syrian doctors treating the sick etc - if for no other reason than the lack of language barriers.

If Greece could get international aid to pay for the construction of refugee facilities, employing Greeks and refugees, that would not only remove the full burden from Greece, but also provide an economic boost to the Greek economy helping them out of the other hole they're in.
 
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
If Greece could get international aid to pay for the construction of refugee facilities, employing Greeks and refugees, that would not only remove the full burden from Greece, but also provide an economic boost to the Greek economy helping them out of the other hole they're in.
We give them a bit of money so that they'll take all the refugees and we won't have to?

Actually, that doesn't sound like a bad idea. Depending on how much money, of course...
 
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
LOL, you're reading a lot in my suggestion that isn't actually there.
You referred to the asylum seekers as "a resource". How else was I supposed to take that?
 
Posted by LeRoc (# 3216) on :
 
We're looking at enterprising people here, many at working age, willing to work, to set up businesses, to do trade …

Plenty of opportunity to help a staggering economy going again.
 
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on :
 
Greece isn't exactly short of people who are willing to work, or indeed of jobs for them to do. What it's lacking is the means to pay for wages and materials.
 
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Greece isn't exactly short of people who are willing to work, or indeed of jobs for them to do. What it's lacking is the means to pay for wages and materials.
If the Greeks weren't being robbed blind for interest on loans they could better afford to create jobs. That's the sensible approach to a recession. "Austerity" only benefits those who already have it made.
 
Posted by LeRoc (# 3216) on :
 
There are people who want to work, there are people who need work done. Isn't an economic system supposed to be the solution to that?
 
Posted by Russ (# 120) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
We're looking at enterprising people here, many at working age, willing to work, to set up businesses, to do trade …

Plenty of opportunity to help a staggering economy going again.
That's good to hear. Too many people are so focussed on what migrants want and need, they make them sound like walking bundles of wants and needs that everyone else is obliged to satisfy. When, as you rightly say, we"re talking about people with skills and energy and intelligence and drive. We know they"ve got get-up-and-go because they got up and went.

Unfortunately, it's not a lack of skilled people that ails the Greek economy.

If I were running Greece, I'd be thinking about:

- building transit camps in a form that is convertible to other uses once the current crisis is over

- cherry-picking the migrants with the most useful skills and facilitate the process of getting them jobs in Greece

- providing onward transport for others.

Yes, doing anything costs money. Putting the Greek economy to rights needs to be done whatever happens to the migrants. Which probably means getting out of the euro.
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
Belle - they had an economic agenda, they've STOPPED and they have turned their backs on the external consequences.
 
Posted by molopata (# 9933) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
What seems to go ignored or left unsaid is that the muslim world (with the exceptions of Lebanon and Turkey, both secular states) have done precisely nothing for the refugees from Syria and other stated in the ME which are in turmoil.
That's assuming you don't count Egypt or Jordan as Muslim. The countries not pulling their weight are the Gulf states.
Not that Jordan had much option. While the Gulf state are not pulling their weight, they are nevertheless co-funding some aid efforts. They can't be applauded, but credit where credit is due.
 
Posted by molopata (# 9933) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
There are people who want to work, there are people who need work done. Isn't an economic system supposed to be the solution to that?
Well, I have work need done, but I can't afford to employ anyone to do it. So I'll either have to do it myself, or more likely, leave it undone.
 
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
There are people who want to work, there are people who need work done. Isn't an economic system supposed to be the solution to that?
If Greece had any control over its own economic system then I'm sure that solution would arise. But instead it's being forced into enacting extreme austerity policies by the EU while at the same time being unable to change its monetary policy in order to stimulate investment due to its membership of the Eurozone. The result being that it simply can't afford to pay the people who want to work to do the work that needs to be done.
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
Then tax wealth.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Greece should leave the EU to enable the pixies to come in the night and take away the creditors desires for their money back. Then they should pray to the rainbow god to send the leprechauns in with their buckets of gold, despite the fact that there are already many leprechauns living tax free on many private islands who have their own buckets of gold. Greece should still be given a special status in Europe because its still a European country and not at all like those African countries enslaved in our debt that none of us actually give a fig about - we certainly don't ask for debt forgiveness for them with anything like the same rigour we ask for it when it comes to Greece. Then Greece can get back to what it does best; keeping the poor just happy enough so they don't revolt and keeping the fat cats fat and the brown envelopes in circulation and not bothering with economic, social or political reform while it accrues new debts outside Europe all the while hoping nobody comes a knocking. Sure, it'll be grand.

On a more serious note; it should take the guilt money Europe is offering to help with the refugee crisis. There's nothing quite like large sums of money to help dress the wounds of guilt over a crisis resulting from something you earlier sanctioned and supported. Britain seems to have been able to effectively suppress this sense of guilt over a crisis resulting from its play in the Middle East though.
 
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Greece should leave the EU to enable the pixies to come in the night and take away the creditors desires for their money back.
If they left the Eurozone and went back to the drachma then they'd be able to simply print a load more money to pay off their debts. Sure, that would result in devaluation of the currency, but it would help with the debt problem.

quote:
Then they should pray to the rainbow god to send the leprechauns in with their buckets of gold, despite the fact that there are already many leprechauns living tax free on many private islands who have their own buckets of gold.
A devalued drachma would make it considerably cheaper for everyone else to work or holiday in Greece. Companies could (and almost certainly would) move factories and offices there to take advantage of the relatively low rent, salary and tax costs compared to countries like Germany or France. Meanwhile, the increase in tourism would provide a welcome boost to areas away from the business centres, especially the islands.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Posted by Marvin:
quote:

If they left the Eurozone and went back to the drachma then they'd be able to simply print a load more money to pay off their debts.
You didn't, by any chance, also teach Gerry Adams economics, did you?
 
Posted by Dave W. (# 8765) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Greece should leave the EU to enable the pixies to come in the night and take away the creditors desires for their money back.
If they left the Eurozone and went back to the drachma then they'd be able to simply print a load more money to pay off their debts. Sure, that would result in devaluation of the currency, but it would help with the debt problem.
I don't see how that helps; debts incurred in euros have to be repaid in euros. Who is going to be lining up to give the Greek government the euros it needs in exchange for newly printed drachmas?
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
A friend of mine with an economics degree says that isn't the case; the 'rules' of sovereign debt are set by the sovereign state that issued it, because that's what sovereign means. Thus when Greece joined the euro, it would have unilaterally redenominated all its existing drachma debt in euros. It might be inadvisable for Greece to redenominate euro debt back into drachmas, but it wouldn't be impossible.

(I don't have an economics degree so I don't know if that's correct.)
 
Posted by molopata (# 9933) on :
 
If they did that, they would immediately be bankrupt, because creditors would still want their money in Euros and be very angry, and because no-one (sane of mind at least) would by Greek bonds on a currency that was about to go into hyperinflation.
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
Well, if they can't pay their debt anyway, I suppose the question is whether creditors prefer to take an upfront haircut of x%, or speculate on how far the drachma will depreciate against the euro before the maturity date of the bond.
 
Posted by Crœsos (# 238) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by molopata:
If they did that, they would immediately be bankrupt, because creditors would still want their money in Euros and be very angry, and because no-one (sane of mind at least) would by [sic] Greek bonds on a currency that was about to go into hyperinflation.
How many people are buying Greek bonds now? It's my understanding that the Greek government has to offer a ~10% interest rate on a 10 year bond at the moment (which is huge by current standards) and that most of the current purchasers of such bonds are other governments doing so for political reasons rather than investors speculating for a return.
 
Posted by Dave W. (# 8765) on :
 
Ricardus, I think your friend is correct that it's not impossible - after all, Greece could refuse to pay and default on its debts (which is what an offer to pay in drachmas would be, essentially.)

I just don't think that either of those options could be characterized as simply "helping with the debt problem" as Marvin suggested. Argentina's economy minister from 2001 doesn't recommend that Greece follow his country's lead into default.
 


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