Thread: Move to reverse or negate the referendum decision. Board: Oblivion / Ship of Fools.


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Posted by Mark Wuntoo (# 5673) on :
 
Curiosity killed posted this in another place .....

Apparently there's a petition for a second referendum - crashing the yougov site.

I think it merits a thread of its own with some discussion.

For me, I'll do anything, clutch at any straw, to change the decision to leave. I suspect that many people are going to wake-up to what they have done and regret it.

[link removed] is a link to the site.

The petition has attracted tremendous support - well over a million signatories.

[host note: link removed in line with policy for petitions etc. to be linked to only in signatures]

[ 25. June 2016, 21:22: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 
Posted by mdijon (# 8520) on :
 
Unfortunately I think there's zero chance of this working. I doubt anyone has an appetite to go through all of that again, and what would we do if the vote was then to remain? Best of three?
 
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on :
 
Given that over 16 million people voted in the referendum to remain, what will 1 million of them signing a petition prove?

I have signed it, but regard it as pissing in the wind.
 
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on :
 
Not much. But let's see where it gets to by the end of the weekend. Maybe several million may have more of an impact.
 
Posted by Mark Wuntoo (# 5673) on :
 
It occurs to me that the majority of MP's wanted to remain. Maybe they will grasp at this straw, declare the referendum void, act shocked at the xenophobia unleashed during the campiagn, call for a period of calm with Cameron staying in power and then, after a respectable period, call another referendum. At least we wouldn't get Boris. As for the Leavers feeling very annoyed at their wishes being ignored - well, a week is a long time in politics, as someone said.
 
Posted by Curiosity killed ... (# 11770) on :
 
I posted that comment in Hell because I thought the petition stood as much chance as a snowball in the inferno. There is a Twitter tag of #BrexitinFiveWords which is worth checking out. I suspect this attempt to change the vote will be seen as: EU Remainers are bad losers, which was one of the posts. (Sorry, struggle with links on my phone).

I voted Remain, but looking around in the polling station as I did so, I wondered why I'd bothered as it felt like a wasted vote. I voted in one of the areas where the result was close to 70%Leave, 30% Remain.

[ 25. June 2016, 12:10: Message edited by: Curiosity killed ... ]
 
Posted by balaam (# 4543) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mark Wuntoo:
At least we wouldn't get Boris.

Boris said he joined the Leave campaign because Cameron's deal with the EU was not strong enough. He said he aimed to go back to the EU if we voted leave to get a better deal.

If you want to remain in the EU, Johnson could be your best bet.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
Much as I'd vote again in such a referendum like a shot, I can't see the rest of the EU wanting to put up with the UK doing the hokey-cokey.

And the Daily Wail would be livid. We'd need at least two of the Leave-supporting papers to recant I think before a new referendum stood a chance.

Maybe if a period of economic chaos gets blamed on the Leave Campaigners lying through their teeth we might get a change of mind in the UK that looks lasting enough for the EU to accept a second referendum. Though by then they'd probably insist we take the Euro and give up the rebate and so on (not something I'd especially object to myself).
 
Posted by Moo (# 107) on :
 
As an American, I don't have a dog in this fight.

However, it would set an extremely bad precedent if people could keep demanding new referendums whenever they didn't like the vote on the last one.

Moo
 
Posted by Alan Cresswell (# 31) on :
 
Well, Farage did say that a 48-52 vote should lead to a re-run. Admittedly, he was talking about a narrow win by Remain and doesn't have the moral fibre to realise his argument is equally valid with a narrow win by Leave.

Another referendum with the same question would be meaningless. Letting the Leavers to form a government and produce a White Paper for a Brexit and then having a referendum on that question is meaningful (also what should have been done in the first place - at least to the point of having the Leavers produce an equivalent to a White Paper).
 
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on :
 
I am hoping that cool heads will prevail, and that there will be negotiation between the UK gvt and the rest of the EU, with a second referendum on the terms. In reality, for this to happen would require the UK government to hold off on invoking Article 50 for goodness knows how long. Furthermore, it requires an awful lot of goodwill from the remaining EU. Now, I am a thoroughgoing Eurosceptic and have been ever since the Lisbon Treaty, and I think the portrayal of the UK as a troublemaker is unfair. But I also think that there comes a point when one has to part ways, and that time has probably arrived.

I agree that a second referendum purely on the same question would pointless and inflammatory.
 
Posted by Mark Wuntoo (# 5673) on :
 
The wording of the petition ....

“We the undersigned call upon HM government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based on a turnout less than 75%, there should be another referendum.”

Now, this uses the future tense so I presume that there was/is a rule somewhere that could be invoked.
Thus, surely a reasoned argument could be made (with appropriate heavy spin!) for a re-run, with both sides promising to be calm and honest (well, one can hope) in their campaigning after appropriate talks with the EU (as per Boris).

Perhaps I misunderstand ... if this is a petition about future referenda, then the cause is lost for the recent one. Anyone clarify?
 
Posted by Gramps49 (# 16378) on :
 
Moo

You said as and American, you don't have a dog in this fight. Have you checked your 401k this morning. You probably took a very big hit.

Americans are very much involved. Britain will now have to renegotiate new trade deals with us. Many American companies with European offices in London will be moving out of GB in the very near future.

Frankly, I can understand why Wales and the other outlanders voted overwhelmingly to exit the EU. They saw no returns for them staying in. Their wages have been stagnant of as long as American wages. There is a lot of anger out there on both sides of the pond. We are in this together.
 
Posted by Kittyville (# 16106) on :
 
Thing is, Gramps49, a lot of the areas that voted to Leave are significant beneficiaries of EU funding (see elsewhere a Shipmate linking to Cornwall asking after voting Leave whether that funding would be matched by the newly-independent [WTF does that even mean? - Ed] govt). So to paraphrase Thunderbunk elsewhere on the Ship - that resounding crack you hear is England and Wales shooting themselves in the foot.

[ 25. June 2016, 13:30: Message edited by: Kittyville ]
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Well, Farage did say that a 48-52 vote should lead to a re-run. Admittedly, he was talking about a narrow win by Remain and doesn't have the moral fibre to realise his argument is equally valid with a narrow win by Leave.

Indeed - plus I do recall this government introducing minimum thresholds for trades unions to vote for strike action, with the enthusiastic support of Mr Johnson.
 
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mark Wuntoo:
Perhaps I misunderstand ... if this is a petition about future referenda, then the cause is lost for the recent one. Anyone clarify?

Ifs and buts, as per the Telegraph.
 
Posted by Augustine the Aleut (# 1472) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Moo:
As an American, I don't have a dog in this fight.

However, it would set an extremely bad precedent if people could keep demanding new referendums whenever they didn't like the vote on the last one.

Moo

In Canada, we're sort of used to it.
 
Posted by rolyn (# 16840) on :
 
It would cause deeper division and more bitterness. It's a done deal, we had long enough to make up are minds.

Maybe if there are a million and a half folks out there who voted Leave as a protest, and under no circumstances wanted Leave to win, then we could be asked to all queue outside Westminster and beg for our vote to be withdrawn.
The queue may number a few hundred regretful souls who didn't mean for the house to fall in, no more I wouldn't think.

[ 25. June 2016, 14:38: Message edited by: rolyn ]
 
Posted by Doublethink. (# 1984) on :
 
I haven't signed it, because I think a vote should be respected. But, if it turns out the leave campaign comitted significant misconduct - then I think it would be legitmate to allow mps a free vote on brexit.
 
Posted by Mark Wuntoo (# 5673) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
I haven't signed it, because I think a vote should be respected. But, if it turns out the leave campaign comitted significant misconduct - then I think it would be legitmate to allow mps a free vote on brexit.

Is telling and repeating lies sufficiently misconductly? But then both sides did that.
 
Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
There is one slight chance.

It's possible, given that Mr Cameron is going to spend the next three months in Downing Street drowning his sorrows, whilst Mr Johnson goes off on his coronation tour that Article 50 won't be invoked until Mr Johnson's accession. Whilst this happens the demerits of the vote become more apparent as 'Project Fear' turns into 'Project I Told You So You Fucking Fools'. It's also possible that Mr Corbyn will be replaced by someone who bears some resemblance to a credible PM. Mr Johnson then repeals the Fixed Term Parliament Act and goes for a snap election to give him a mandate for his specific leave proposals. UKIP run on a platform of 'Leave Means Leave' on the grounds that these give too much power to the EU. Meanwhile Mr or Ms Credible announces that a vote for the Labour Party will be taken as a vote to repudiate the referendum and that a Labour Party with a viable majority will have a Parliamentary mandate to do so. Mr Farron chips in to say the same about the Lib Dem Parliamentary contingent. The 48% vote, augmented by the worst case of buyers remorse since the 1992 General Election, get Mr or Ms Credible (and the Lib Dems) elected with a thumping parliamentary majority whilst Johnson and Farage have an unedifying scrap about immigration and get hammered.

It's not a terribly plausible scenario, mainly because I can't see the EU waiting patiently for the UK to invoke Article 50 for all that time whilst the European economy takes a hammering. But a government that got elected between now and the invocation of Article 50, which stated on page one of its manifesto that, if elected, they would set aside the referendum result would have both a mandate and the legal authority to do so.

St Jude, ora pro nobis!
 
Posted by Enoch (# 14322) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
... I think the portrayal of the UK as a troublemaker is unfair. ...

It is entirely fair. I don't see how anyone can argue with that.

Our politicians have played this appallingly for years, and now we poor infantry have to reap the whirlwind of their uselessness. It doesn't feel fair, but perhaps it's our fair punishment for tolerating both them and our own unreformed political system for so long and not even voting for a partial reform in the referendum on that five years ago.
 
Posted by Curiosity killed ... (# 11770) on :
 
I spoke to someone this afternoon who voted Leave as a protest against increasing power in Brussels and is now slightly stunned, and concerned by the result. It's affecting his business, people not buying things when they are uncertain about the future.
 
Posted by Al Eluia (# 864) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Kittyville:
Thing is, Gramps49, a lot of the areas that voted to Leave are significant beneficiaries of EU funding . . .

That reminds me of how, in this country, we're constantly hearing of secessionist grumblings in Texas, which is one of the biggest net beneficiaries of federal spending. Sure, Texas, leave. We'll just take back all our tax money that goes to you along with the military bases that help keep many communities in your "country" afloat.
 
Posted by Augustine the Aleut (# 1472) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
I spoke to someone this afternoon who voted Leave as a protest against increasing power in Brussels and is now slightly stunned, and concerned by the result. It's affecting his business, people not buying things when they are uncertain about the future.

This is not rare. As I mentioned above, Canadians are experienced with referenda. In both the 1980 and 1995 referenda, I have Québecois non-nationalist friends votre for the Yes, on the grounds that Québec needed to: a) make a statement that it could control its destiny if it chose to do so, b) let other provinces know that Québécois needed to be respected more, c) renegotiate some aspects of the Constitution (no specifics in mind, however), and d) make a self-affirmative statement. None of them thought that a Yes vote would result in departure and I was variously told that I was silly, a scaremonger, and a puppet of corporate imperialism.

I sat through many many many inter-departmental meetings preparing and meandering over the second referendum (as well as during the Charlottetown Accord referendum of 1992), and in the corridors and anterooms of Exalted Spaces for the first one, and can assure shipmates that it seems to be a really inane way to make decisions-- votes are often on the basis of general political feeling at the time and (may I emphasize this?) almost never on the question asked.

Even with the Canadian approach of Yes and No committees, with information sessions and buckets of useful information online and in the papers, with both public and private networks holding town halls and Q&A sessions, very little discussion took place on the essence of the question. Most of it focussed on general frustration with a range of issues, or on red herrings spouted forth (apologies for the mixed metaphor) by one side or the other.

Callan's vision, while on the surface quite bizarre, may well be the only practical way forward. The Somali barista yesterday suggested that perhaps the Queen should step in because does she not have many loyal tribesmen from the Highlands?
 
Posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider (# 76) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
There is one slight chance.

It's possible, given that Mr Cameron is going to spend the next three months in Downing Street drowning his sorrows, whilst Mr Johnson goes off on his coronation tour that Article 50 won't be invoked until Mr Johnson's accession. Whilst this happens the demerits of the vote become more apparent as 'Project Fear' turns into 'Project I Told You So You Fucking Fools'. It's also possible that Mr Corbyn will be replaced by someone who bears some resemblance to a credible PM. Mr Johnson then repeals the Fixed Term Parliament Act and goes for a snap election to give him a mandate for his specific leave proposals. UKIP run on a platform of 'Leave Means Leave' on the grounds that these give too much power to the EU. Meanwhile Mr or Ms Credible announces that a vote for the Labour Party will be taken as a vote to repudiate the referendum and that a Labour Party with a viable majority will have a Parliamentary mandate to do so. Mr Farron chips in to say the same about the Lib Dem Parliamentary contingent. The 48% vote, augmented by the worst case of buyers remorse since the 1992 General Election, get Mr or Ms Credible (and the Lib Dems) elected with a thumping parliamentary majority whilst Johnson and Farage have an unedifying scrap about immigration and get hammered.

That's the bit that won't work, because a sizeable proportion of the Remain vote and probably an even higher proportion of the buyer's remorse Leave vote will be made up of tribal voters who always vote for whoever is wearing the right colour rosette and would no more dream of doing otherwise than they would of eating their steak blue/well done* (delete as applicable)
 
Posted by Joesaphat (# 18493) on :
 
I signed it just to have the pleasure of hearing Gove and Johnson defend themselves in parliament. Above 100,000, they'll have to debate it. Brett leadership are utterly, utterly clueless. They have no plan at all.
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
... I think the portrayal of the UK as a troublemaker is unfair. ...

It is entirely fair. I don't see how anyone can argue with that.
I agree, more or less.

But I don't think the British public (or their representatives) have ever really bought in to the "ever closer union" part of the deal, whereas the leadership of the rest of Europe mostly has.

Which means that the UK isn't going into the various European negotiations with quite the same assumptions as everyone else. Which is, I think the cause of much of the "troublemaking".
 
Posted by Jengie jon (# 273) on :
 
My feeling.

There will be a period of upset while politics reforms itself. If I had the energy I would be looking for a campaign for a stronger civil society to join. We need a change that sets parameters of what is acceptable and that means we need to talk about respect for those that differ.

Secondly, there will be a whole lot of politics about the departure treaty. Not prejudging that but I am quite sure when leaving becomes more concrete it will not be as readily pleasing to so many different factions.

Thirdly I then expect in two years a second referendum on whether to accept the package. The cynic in me suggests that then people will reject that too.

So in two years time, we will have a vote to leave and a vote not to accept the conditions of leaving.

Jengie
 
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on :
 
Pause for thought.
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:

Frankly, I can understand why Wales and the other outlanders voted overwhelmingly to exit the EU. They saw no returns for them staying in. Their wages have been stagnant of as long as American wages. There is a lot of anger out there on both sides of the pond. We are in this together.

Wales voted Leave by a small but clear margin (a little smaller than the margin in England). The only "overwhelming" votes were to remain in Scotland, and obviously in Gibraltar.
 
Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
There is one slight chance.

It's possible, given that Mr Cameron is going to spend the next three months in Downing Street drowning his sorrows, whilst Mr Johnson goes off on his coronation tour that Article 50 won't be invoked until Mr Johnson's accession. Whilst this happens the demerits of the vote become more apparent as 'Project Fear' turns into 'Project I Told You So You Fucking Fools'. It's also possible that Mr Corbyn will be replaced by someone who bears some resemblance to a credible PM. Mr Johnson then repeals the Fixed Term Parliament Act and goes for a snap election to give him a mandate for his specific leave proposals. UKIP run on a platform of 'Leave Means Leave' on the grounds that these give too much power to the EU. Meanwhile Mr or Ms Credible announces that a vote for the Labour Party will be taken as a vote to repudiate the referendum and that a Labour Party with a viable majority will have a Parliamentary mandate to do so. Mr Farron chips in to say the same about the Lib Dem Parliamentary contingent. The 48% vote, augmented by the worst case of buyers remorse since the 1992 General Election, get Mr or Ms Credible (and the Lib Dems) elected with a thumping parliamentary majority whilst Johnson and Farage have an unedifying scrap about immigration and get hammered.

That's the bit that won't work, because a sizeable proportion of the Remain vote and probably an even higher proportion of the buyer's remorse Leave vote will be made up of tribal voters who always vote for whoever is wearing the right colour rosette and would no more dream of doing otherwise than they would of eating their steak blue/well done* (delete as applicable)
To quote Roj Blake: "It's our best chance, I did not say that it was a good one".

But there are a large number of people in Tory/ Lib Dem marginals who voted for that nice Mr Cameron and economic stability and are now, one imagines, thinking that this is not the pig in a poke, they had in mind. And, if I am right about the economic costs of Brexit, this could well make Black Wednesday and the subsequent defection from the Tories look like a vicarage tea sale. And, of course, it cuts both ways 37% of tribal voters for Labour voted for leave and some of them, at least, would vote for a pig in a red rosette at a General Election.

To be honest I think that there are probably too many variables to click into place for it to work. But if the stars are right...
 
Posted by Jack the Lass (# 3415) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:

Frankly, I can understand why Wales and the other outlanders voted overwhelmingly to exit the EU. They saw no returns for them staying in. Their wages have been stagnant of as long as American wages. There is a lot of anger out there on both sides of the pond. We are in this together.

Wales voted Leave by a small but clear margin (a little smaller than the margin in England). The only "overwhelming" votes were to remain in Scotland, and obviously in Gibraltar.
And London.

Wales' result surprised me. I can't find it now, but did see an article recently with a map indicating that Wales (particularly the west coast) was one of the highest beneficiaries of EU funding in the whole of the UK.
 
Posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider (# 76) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:

Frankly, I can understand why Wales and the other outlanders voted overwhelmingly to exit the EU. They saw no returns for them staying in. Their wages have been stagnant of as long as American wages. There is a lot of anger out there on both sides of the pond. We are in this together.

Wales voted Leave by a small but clear margin (a little smaller than the margin in England). The only "overwhelming" votes were to remain in Scotland, and obviously in Gibraltar.
Indeed. We had the edifying spectacle yesterday of Cornwall CC pleading that it's not going to lose its (currently EU) financial input which is funding infrastructure developments in what is, despite how it looks to holidaying English, actually a deprived area with terrible average wages. Having voted as a region to leave.

Similarly I don't know what the Welsh Valleys thought they had to gain. All the Welsh people I actually know are horrified; as with Scotland, they are seriously considering whether to push for Welsh independence and rejoining the EU as Wales. They certainly don't trust an essentially English government in London to give a monkeys' - they haven't for centuries, so why'd they start now?

Is this the chance Mebyon Kernow have been waiting for all these years?

[ 25. June 2016, 19:00: Message edited by: Karl: Liberal Backslider ]
 
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
All the Welsh people I actually know are horrified; as with Scotland, they are seriously considering whether to push for Welsh independence and rejoining the EU as Wales.

And how are they going to manage meanwhile, while they wait to have their application assessed, and will they be able to meet all the criteria for membership?
 
Posted by leo (# 1458) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
Pause for thought.

Best thing I've read today.
 
Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :
 
Not necessarily endorsing the petition. Though who was it who said "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way"?. If it had gone the other way, I doubt Farage would have shut up - how many times has he failed to be elected?
 
Posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider (# 76) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
All the Welsh people I actually know are horrified; as with Scotland, they are seriously considering whether to push for Welsh independence and rejoining the EU as Wales.

And how are they going to manage meanwhile, while they wait to have their application assessed, and will they be able to meet all the criteria for membership?
I think they'd hope to get things moving during the 2+ years before the UK exits. Do you have a better plan for them?
 
Posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider (# 76) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
Not necessarily endorsing the petition. Though who was it who said "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way"?. If it had gone the other way, I doubt Farage would have shut up - how many times has he failed to be elected?

Oh hush. This is a man who told us we'd have another £350m a week for the NHS, then said that was a silly idea once he'd had enough people say "hey, that's a good idea, go on then, do it". He's hardly going to be consistent enough to realise the implication of something he said, is he?
 
Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
All the Welsh people I actually know are horrified; as with Scotland, they are seriously considering whether to push for Welsh independence and rejoining the EU as Wales.

And how are they going to manage meanwhile, while they wait to have their application assessed, and will they be able to meet all the criteria for membership?
I think they'd hope to get things moving during the 2+ years before the UK exits. Do you have a better plan for them?
I must say that I have no sympathy.

I dislike all nationalist parties on principle. If they get their way they will have us all throwing nuts at one another from separate trees. But If I were a Scot I would be throwing in my lot with Nicola Sturgeon at the moment.

The Welsh, on the other hand, along with a number of the regions of England have voted to leave the EU and whilst bleating that they want to keep the EU funding they were happy to trouser before the wicked day of destiny.

Fuck 'em. They voted to impoverish themselves. They have their reward.
 
Posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider (# 76) on :
 
Bit of a blanket condemnation there really, Callan - the Welsh people I know didn't vote for this.
 
Posted by Gamaliel (# 812) on :
 
If you look at the map of the in/out results then the North West of Wales - Gwynedd - voted to remain. I was surprised at Ceredigion and Powys ... but, sadly, not at the results in South Wales where, apart from the coastal areas/the Vale of Glamorgan, the vote was overwhelmingly to leave.

The reason for this is that it's a traditional Labour heartland and traditional Labour voters - like it or not - are alarmed by fear of immigration. Blaenau Gwent was solidly for leaving despite having the lowest proportion of non-UK born residents anywhere in the UK.

I'm afraid those of us on the liberal left, The Guardian reading chattering classes, are going to have to ask and answer some hard-questions.

We have let down the working class.

Big time.

Consequently, the siren-songs of Brexit have wide appeal.

[Waterworks]

There's a different dynamic operating in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Hence the way things worked out differently than they did in Wales and in the old industrial areas of the Midlands and the North.

On the idea of a second referendum. Even though I voted Remain I think it would be counter-productive and only fuel the paranoia of sections of the Brexit block.

Don't get me wrong, I respect those on the left who voted Brexit and would be the first to acknowledge that they raised some genuine concerns about Brussels, accountability and democracy etc.

However, what swung it, in my view, was a sense of abandonment and despair in the old industrial heartlands which all too easily translates into, 'We don't want foreigners coming here and taking our jobs ...'

This is an unpalatable pill to swallow for those, like me, who are on the liberal left. But swallow it we must.
 
Posted by Gamaliel (# 812) on :
 
I've just spotted your post Callan.

I can't let that pass. Even though I'm living in England. I must ask you to step outside. Join me in Hell.
 
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Jack the Lass:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:

Frankly, I can understand why Wales and the other outlanders voted overwhelmingly to exit the EU. They saw no returns for them staying in. Their wages have been stagnant of as long as American wages. There is a lot of anger out there on both sides of the pond. We are in this together.

Wales voted Leave by a small but clear margin (a little smaller than the margin in England). The only "overwhelming" votes were to remain in Scotland, and obviously in Gibraltar.
And London.

Wales' result surprised me. I can't find it now, but did see an article recently with a map indicating that Wales (particularly the west coast) was one of the highest beneficiaries of EU funding in the whole of the UK.

The two large, sparsely-populated and poor constituencies running down the west coast voted Remain. As did Cardiff, Newport and the Vale of Glamorgan (the rich bit that sticks out near Cardiff). The rest, including all those valleys that depended on EU regional funding, voted out.
 
Posted by Mark Wuntoo (# 5673) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
Pause for thought.

Best thing I've read today.
Here, here.
 
Posted by rufiki (# 11165) on :
 
My favourite theory of the day is that Scotland and Northern Ireland might have a technical veto on Brexit (twitter link).
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
Pause for thought.

Best thing I've read today.
Well there was a Leave MP on Channel 4 News today. When the interviewer asked him: "So did Boris not really want the vote to be Leave?" he wouldn't answer the question! When asked when Article 50 would be activated he carefully left the "never" option open!

How weaselly.

I voted "Remain" and wish the vote had gone that way, but it would now be even worse to say "stuff you" to those who voted "Leave". It would reinforce the narrative "nobody actually cares what we think". We should just get on with leaving now.
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
A lecturer in law at John Moore's has suggested that Liverpool should apply to secede and join the Republic of Ireland ...
 
Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Gamaliel:

I'm afraid those of us on the liberal left, The Guardian reading chattering classes, are going to have to ask and answer some hard-questions.

We have let down the working class.

The mess we are in is a product of the toxic media environment we have in this country, where the various organs of the press serve only as producers of manufactured outrage.

So no, I reject this characterization (or at least would only accept it heavily qualified). The way to solve the problems of depressed industrial areas would be to move in the direction of social democracy and proper regional development policies and bodies with powers to carry them out.

When Milliband made tiny steps in this direction he was branded a communist firebrand.

What we don't need is more neoliberalism (of whatever stripe) with an injection of racism. That is what I fear we'll get though.
 
Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
He's hardly going to be consistent enough to realise the implication of something he said, is he?

I don't credit him with being self-aware enough to realise it. I'll keep pointing it out to his supporters though.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
Pause for thought.

Best thing I've read today.
This piece, like so much I've read on this thread so far, is so utterly utterly UK-centric.

It creates the impression that the EU-27 is simply going to put the rest of the business of the EU on further hold (lots was already on hold pending the UK referendum) while politicians of the country that's clearly voted to leave the club act out their own psychodrama.

However bad for the EU the UK leaving might be, dithering about the result would be worse for the EU (let alone the UK). I don't think there's any question at all this side of the Channel that the only question about invoking article 50 is when, not if. The EU repeatedly warned UK voters that this was a one-shot decision.

And should the UK somehow decide otherwise, it will discredit just about every current aspect of the democratic process. The best thing for everyone is to accept the result, translate it into the proper political form (invoking article 50) and move forward.
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
The whole campaign, on both sides, was utterly UK-centric!

Everything was about Britain's national interest.

What about everybody else's interests?

Get on with triggering Article 50. Cameron should do it now while he still has the chance.

[ 25. June 2016, 21:42: Message edited by: TurquoiseTastic ]
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
I spoke to someone this afternoon who voted Leave as a protest against increasing power in Brussels and is now slightly stunned, and concerned by the result. It's affecting his business, people not buying things when they are uncertain about the future.

This is not rare. As I mentioned above, Canadians are experienced with referenda. In both the 1980 and 1995 referenda, I have Québecois non-nationalist friends votre for the Yes, on the grounds that Québec needed to: a) make a statement that it could control its destiny if it chose to do so, b) let other provinces know that Québécois needed to be respected more, c) renegotiate some aspects of the Constitution (no specifics in mind, however), and d) make a self-affirmative statement. None of them thought that a Yes vote would result in departure and I was variously told that I was silly, a scaremonger, and a puppet of corporate imperialism.


I believe Newfoundland held a second referendum on joining Canada, only weeks after "Join" was voted down in the first one. Never quite understood how that could be seen as legitimate, though I guess since Canada wanted them to join, it was easy to convince Ottawa to go along with it.

I'd be interested in hearing anyone else's take on that.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Get on with triggering Article 50. Cameron should do it now while he still has the chance.

If he dithers too much, I think it not unlikely that the EU Council of Ministers will soon take Article 50 as invoked de facto by the referendum.

Before anyone laughs that idea off, it seems (again, from this side of the Channel) at least as plausible than pretending the referendum wasn't supposed to lead directly to Article 50. If not more so.

[ 25. June 2016, 21:46: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:

And should the UK somehow decide otherwise, it will discredit just about every current aspect of the democratic process. The best thing for everyone is to accept the result, translate it into the proper political form (invoking article 50) and move forward.

This is quite true, but to argue the other side of what I said earlier, leaving the EU isn't exactly a clear cut process. The EU bods seem to be suggesting that the referendum itself was the note of intention needed to leave the EU, but that seems a debatable point.

If Cameron refuses to give the "official" notice to the other EU leaders, the question remains whether there is anything they can do to hasten things along. On the one hand, I think it is quite possible that the majority of EU countries would want the thing begun as quickly as possible, but constitutionally, it appears that the Prime Minster cannot do it unilaterally and refuses to anyway.

If it is true that the Scottish parliament could on some level have a veto on leaving (which would be hilarious if it turned out to be true) or if there was a rapid GE where pro-EU parties were elected, then it is tough to see what the EU could do about it.

Conversely if the EU states acted together to give the UK the boot before they'd actually officially given the notice, then that leaves open all sort of nasty options relating to other states they might not really want in the club.

Interesting times. Almost the prisoner's dilemma whichever way you look at the problem.
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The whole campaign, on both sides, was utterly UK-centric!

Everything was about Britain's national interest.

What about everybody else's interests?


Again, I don't quite see why voters in the UK were obligated to take the welfare of other nations into account.

Norway is currently sitting out the EU. If it were determined that their joining the EU would somehow benefit the rest of Europe, should their electorate be urged to vote for that?
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
The EU bods seem to be suggesting that the referendum itself was the note of intention needed to leave the EU, but that seems a debatable point.

Again: it clearly wasn't the actual "note of intention", but as far as I'm concerned, the consequences of pretending it was anything other than something that would automatically trigger Article 50 are far, far worse than the alternative. All of them.
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The whole campaign, on both sides, was utterly UK-centric!

Everything was about Britain's national interest.

What about everybody else's interests?


Again, I don't quite see why voters in the UK were obligated to take the welfare of other nations into account.

Norway is currently sitting out the EU. If it were determined that their joining the EU would somehow benefit the rest of Europe, should their electorate be urged to vote for that?

Duh, yes. You ought to do good things. That's the definition of "good".

They're not obligated to do them, of course. We've just witnessed that.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The whole campaign, on both sides, was utterly UK-centric!

Everything was about Britain's national interest.

What about everybody else's interests?


Again, I don't quite see why voters in the UK were obligated to take the welfare of other nations into account.
Because unlike Norway, they were members. And to ignore the other nations' welfare is to take a position of supreme arrogance when they are the same people you hope are going to give you a nice trade deal quite soon.
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The whole campaign, on both sides, was utterly UK-centric!

Everything was about Britain's national interest.

What about everybody else's interests?


Again, I don't quite see why voters in the UK were obligated to take the welfare of other nations into account.

Norway is currently sitting out the EU. If it were determined that their joining the EU would somehow benefit the rest of Europe, should their electorate be urged to vote for that?

Duh, yes. You ought to do good things. That's the definition of "good".

They're not obligated to do them, of course. We've just witnessed that.

Well, I don't think we should confuse trade-agreements with foreign-aid here.

It can be argued that the UK "ought to do good things" for poor nations in Africa by sending them foreign-aid. I don't think that's the same thing as saying that the UK ought to join the African Economic Community, even if it could be shown that joining the AEC would be to the bebefit of poor nations in Africa.
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The whole campaign, on both sides, was utterly UK-centric!

Everything was about Britain's national interest.

What about everybody else's interests?


Again, I don't quite see why voters in the UK were obligated to take the welfare of other nations into account.
Because unlike Norway, they were members. And to ignore the other nations' welfare is to take a position of supreme arrogance when they are the same people you hope are going to give you a nice trade deal quite soon.
Well, since when is membership in an organization supposed to last forever? I can think of all sorts of instances where people or groups have withdrawn from mutual-benefit organizations, after determining that they're not getting enough benefits for themselves.
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
It would, however, be transparently selfish to argue along the lines of "Let's stop sending foreign aid to Africa! It's clear that this aid doesn't benefit Britain at all - in fact, it's costing us money!"

Some people do argue along these lines, of course.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Well, since when is membership in an organization supposed to last forever? I can think of all sorts of instances where people or groups have withdrawn from mutual-benefit organizations, after determining that they're not getting enough benefits for themselves.

That argument works fine - provided you want to walk away and never have anything at all to do with them again, ever. The latter is simply not an option when you are neighbours and destined to remain neighbours.

Whatever the terms, the UK now has to deal with the EU. It has every interest in not antagonising it by factoring in the EU's interests, in order to get the best possible deal in the circumstances. Every day of uncertainty that passes decreases the leverage for favourable terms.

[ 25. June 2016, 22:14: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Well, since when is membership in an organization supposed to last forever? I can think of all sorts of instances where people or groups have withdrawn from mutual-benefit organizations, after determining that they're not getting enough benefits for themselves.

That argument works fine - provided you want to walk away and never have anything at all to do with them again, ever. The latter is simply not an option when you are neighbours and destined to remain neighbours.

Whatever the terms, the UK now has to deal with the EU. It has every interest in not antagonising it by factoring in the EU's interests, in order to get the best possible deal in the circumstances. Every day of uncertainty that passes decreases the leverage for favourable terms.

I agree with this. But it IS an appeal to self-interest.
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
It would, however, be transparently selfish to argue along the lines of "Let's stop sending foreign aid to Africa! It's clear that this aid doesn't benefit Britain at all - in fact, it's costing us money!"

Some people do argue along these lines, of course.

Well, like I said, I think there is a difference between the acceptable motivations for foreign-aid, and the acceptable motivations for staying in a trading-bloc.

I might, for altrusitic reasons, send money to an organization that helps the homeless. However, if I'm shopping around for a new car, I don't think I'm morally obligated to buy it from the car-dealer who is the most hard-up for cash, because he really needs the money to keep his mortgage payments going.
 
Posted by PaulTH* (# 320) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I don't think there's any question at all this side of the Channel that the only question about invoking article 50 is when, not if. The EU repeatedly warned UK voters that this was a one-shot decision.

Yes but reading the link by Ariel, perhaps BoJo and Gove are hoping that informal talks could lead to a position in which another referendum could be called. Article 50 is irreversible. Much as I disliked the result, it can't be reversed or negated unless a serious change in circumstances warrants asking the question again. When Cameron found himself in the position of having to honour his ill advised promise to hold the referendum, instead of kicking it into the long grass as he'd hoped, the EU leaders could have given him a bigger fig leaf. Perhaps if they'd known how seriously the British public take the question of immigration, right or wrong, they would have tried harder.
 
Posted by Kaplan Corday (# 16119) on :
 
For some reason I am reminded of the famous lines by Bertolt Brecht:

....the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
 
Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Yes but reading the link by Ariel, perhaps BoJo and Gove are hoping that informal talks could lead to a position in which another referendum could be called.

Months ago that was Boris' suggested position - at least initially, of course when challenged on this (that we could vote leave and enter a further period of negotiation), he did his normal act of denial with bluster.

If you are supportive of this - however - I fail to see why this is different from re-visiting the decision as a whole anyway.
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
If someone walks away from an organisation which they could benefit, simply because of lack of benefit to themselves, they are acting in a selfish and wrong fashion.

OF COURSE people do this all the time. This is simply to say that people are imperfect.

As the Bible puts it "Anyone who knows the good he ought to do and doesn't do it, sins".

And nations do this all the time. This is simply to say that people are imperfect.

To return to an example similar to your "African Economic Union", I would argue it was historically selfish and disastrous that the USA did not join the inter-war League of Nations - whereas it was selfless and vital that the USA supported liberal democracy worldwide against first Fascism and then Communism.

[Cross-post - reply to Stetson's earlier post]

[ 25. June 2016, 22:47: Message edited by: TurquoiseTastic ]
 
Posted by PaulTH* (# 320) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by chris styles:
[B]If you are supportive of this - however - I fail to see why this is different from re-visiting the decision as a whole anyway.{/B]

I'm not against revisiting the decision if new proposals were to be put. I'm against saying that it's the wrong decision so it isn't binding. That's profoundly undemocratic.
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
It would, however, be transparently selfish to argue along the lines of "Let's stop sending foreign aid to Africa! It's clear that this aid doesn't benefit Britain at all - in fact, it's costing us money!"

Some people do argue along these lines, of course.

Well, like I said, I think there is a difference between the acceptable motivations for foreign-aid, and the acceptable motivations for staying in a trading-bloc.

I might, for altrusitic reasons, send money to an organization that helps the homeless. However, if I'm shopping around for a new car, I don't think I'm morally obligated to buy it from the car-dealer who is the most hard-up for cash, because he really needs the money to keep his mortgage payments going.

First, if you are a big regular customer of that car dealer and you know that cancelling your own company's order will have a huge impact on that car dealer's business, I would say you most definitely do have a moral obligation to at least factor the impact on the other guy into your own business decision.

Secondly, at international level the geopolitical implications of these decisions are so much greater that the moral obligation to consider the impact on others is greater as well. The EU is more than just a trading bloc - it is the effective post-war settlement for Europe. This should not have been put at risk because we British think we might be able to get a better used-car deal elsewhere.
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
To return to an example similar to your "African Economic Union", I would argue it was historically selfish and disastrous that the USA did not join the inter-war League of Nations - whereas it was selfless and vital that the USA supported liberal democracy worldwide against first Fascism and then Communism.

Well, the League Of Nations is a complicated example, because US non-involvement allegedly led to World War II, which the US then entered. So, assuming that the US joining the League would have prevented World War II, then entering the organization would have been in US interests.

And, for the record, I don't think either the US fight against fascism nor against Communism were undertaken for altruistic reasons. Nor do I think that countries which stayed out of either fight were neccessarily doing anything wrong.
 
Posted by PaulTH* (# 320) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Turqoise Tastic:
The EU is more than just a trading bloc - it is the effective post-war settlement for Europe. This should not have been put at risk because we British think we might be able to get a better used-car deal elsewhere.

So are you saying that nobody is entitled to challenge the vision of the Euro federalists? Personally I think that successive British governments have negotiated enough opt outs for the UK, that I wouldn't have voted for Brexit, but I would never have accepted being forced to take the Euro or be part of Schengen, and I agreed with Cameron's most recent opt out from "ever closer political integration." It's not only about getting a better deal. The British view of the future of Europe has been at odds with the French and German view from the get go.

When John Major ousted Thatcher he promised a less confrontational approach to Europe, but ended up getting serious opt outs at Maastricht. Tony Blair promised to put Britain "at the heart of Europe." But they all came up against the same problem. We don't see Europe the same way this side of the Channel. So while I think we have put a lot at risk in this vote, I've always supported our less integrated position within the EU.
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
First, if you are a big regular customer of that car dealer and you know that cancelling your own company's order will have a huge impact on that car dealer's business, I would say you most definitely do have a moral obligation to at least factor the impact on the other guy into your own business decision.

I think it would depend on how much I personally regard that car-dealer as a friend. If I just know the company by name, no idea who the personnel are, I don't think I need to worry about whether or not changing my supplier is gonna have a negative effect on anyone's well-being. I mean, really, there is always someone who is gonna get the short end of the stick, no matter what decision I make.

quote:
The EU is more than just a trading bloc - it is the effective post-war settlement for Europe.
I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean, though I suspect it's meant to be scored to Ode To Joy?

Seriously, though, if you mean that the EU is what's kept Europe out of war since 1945, well, I personally have never bought that theory(I'm pretty sure it was the stalemate of the Cold War that kept everyone from going off the rails). And anyway, was Europe at more risk of Bad Things happening when the UK wasn't in?
 
Posted by Kittyville (# 16106) on :
 
According to Der Spiegel, the EU's own lawyers have advised that the referendum result is not a de facto declaration in terms of Article 50. The UK government has to make a formal declaration of its intention to leave the EU.
 
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
I spoke to someone this afternoon who voted Leave as a protest against increasing power in Brussels and is now slightly stunned, and concerned by the result. It's affecting his business, people not buying things when they are uncertain about the future.

This is not rare. As I mentioned above, Canadians are experienced with referenda. In both the 1980 and 1995 referenda, I have Québecois non-nationalist friends votre for the Yes, on the grounds that Québec needed to: a) make a statement that it could control its destiny if it chose to do so, b) let other provinces know that Québécois needed to be respected more, c) renegotiate some aspects of the Constitution (no specifics in mind, however), and d) make a self-affirmative statement. None of them thought that a Yes vote would result in departure and I was variously told that I was silly, a scaremonger, and a puppet of corporate imperialism.


I believe Newfoundland held a second referendum on joining Canada, only weeks after "Join" was voted down in the first one. Never quite understood how that could be seen as legitimate, though I guess since Canada wanted them to join, it was easy to convince Ottawa to go along with it.

I'd be interested in hearing anyone else's take on that.

On paper, it was legitimate because there was no absolute majority for any option on the first referendum, the Commission of Government (status quo) option got a significant margin of votes on the first round.

In practice, Canada had made a deal with the UK that Newfoundland would be pushed into Canada's arms, to which end Mackenzie-King turned over to Joey Smallwood a 'hit list' of the Liberal Party's top donors, who wrote generous cheques for Newfoundland's Confederation cause. Which was legal, as there were no electoral financing laws of any kind in Newfoundland at the time.

There have also been persistent rumours that the second vote was 'canted'; that the actual result was against Confederation but the Returning Officer falsified the result, on London's orders.

Strong-arm tactics in Confederation Elections/Referendums are nothing new in Canada. When the country is at stake, no expense is spared.
 
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
The EU bods seem to be suggesting that the referendum itself was the note of intention needed to leave the EU, but that seems a debatable point.

It's not even debatable. It's flat wrong.

quote:
If Cameron refuses to give the "official" notice to the other EU leaders, the question remains whether there is anything they can do to hasten things along.


Diplomatic pressure and, I expect, undiplomatic pressure.

quote:
On the one hand, I think it is quite possible that the majority of EU countries would want the thing begun as quickly as possible, but constitutionally, it appears that the Prime Minster cannot do it unilaterally and refuses to anyway.


Notification from a member state obviously means a request by that state, not its public. For the UK this means the Queen acting through her ministers in power at the time being. So the PM could not do it unilaterally but the current government could.

quote:
If it is true that the Scottish parliament could on some level have a veto on leaving (which would be hilarious if it turned out to be true)


It isn't. The Scottish Parliament's powers entirely derive from Westminster. I have often heard it stated that under Scots law "the people are sovereign", not Parliament. I've yet to hear an explanation or this and think it's probably a myth.

quote:
or if there was a rapid GE where pro-EU parties were elected, then it is tough to see what the EU could do about it.


The only way I could see to stop Article 50 being triggered is by Bremainers petitioning their MPs to pass a vote of no confidence in the current government and forcing a general election - and hoping that the MPs elected in that Parliament form a government that refuses to notify under Article 50.

God knows what the markets would make of that.

quote:
Conversely if the EU states acted together to give the UK the boot before they'd actually officially given the notice, then that leaves open all sort of nasty options relating to other states they might not really want in the club.


There is no mechanism that I'm aware of for the expulsion of a member.

quote:
Interesting times. Almost the prisoner's dilemma whichever way you look at the problem.
My prayers are with you all [Votive]
 
Posted by Augustine the Aleut (# 1472) on :
 
Cod posts:

quote:
The only way I could see to stop Article 50 being triggered is by Bremainers petitioning their MPs to pass a vote of no confidence in the current government and forcing a general election - and hoping that the MPs elected in that Parliament form a government that refuses to notify under Article 50.
There is another (even more unlikely) alternative. That the House withdraw its confidence from the Government, and a new government intending to not-article-50, with then receives a vote of confidence (part Con, with Lib Dem participation, with Labour support???). Now the new government would be in for a lot of barracking from the popular press, and would be very challenged at election time, but it is possible. Just not likely.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The only way I could see to stop Article 50 being triggered is by Bremainers petitioning their MPs to pass a vote of no confidence in the current government and forcing a general election - and hoping that the MPs elected in that Parliament form a government that refuses to notify under Article 50.

God knows what the markets would make of that.

I agree with this - both parts of it.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Kittyville:
According to Der Spiegel, the EU's own lawyers have advised that the referendum result is not a de facto declaration in terms of Article 50. The UK government has to make a formal declaration of its intention to leave the EU.

This BBC article doesn't seem to be quite so sure.

The most hilarious part of it, however, is the suggestion that the Brexiters could challenge any tacit recognition of Article 50 having been invoked - before the European Court of Justice.
 
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 
The result will not be set aside. The referendum does not notify the EU under Article 50. There is at present no coherent negotiating strategy and no negotiating team or leader in place to conduct the settlement of the U.K. exit terms.

In short it is a bugger's muddle. I suspect there will be a compromise between the Cameron 3 months and the E.U. 27 more immediate needs. I suspect such a deal is already being worked on behind the scenes. The U.K. needs to preserve some level of goodwill before the exit discussions begin. So it needs to trigger Article 50 as early as is practically possible. Practicailities include agreeing to the form and order of exit discussion. Officials will be working on that behind the scenes to produce a preliminary formula to be ratified at the first official meeting post Article 50 triggering. Something like that will need to be done anyway.
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
edit: this is a response to Euty

I don't think anyone really knows because the Article wasn't written clearly enough for them to know.

I think the referendum probably isn't notice as per the Article simply on the basis that this has no precedent - referenda in other countries have not been treated like this, ie final decisions. But I also think that Brexiters who are suggesting that Article 50 is only invoked when the British government say it is are stretching credibility.

It would be interesting how the European Court of Justice work this one out, but my guess is that it'd rule in favour of the wishes of the majority of countries and the views of the European Commission. Because it'd be ridiculous to rule that the country wishing to leave holds the rest to ransom until it is convenient to it.

Ultimately, I suspect the EU position will be determined by France and Germany. And that'll come down to a determination of the economic impacts.

[ 26. June 2016, 06:57: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
I think the Scottish issue is actually really interesting.

As I understand it, the Westminster legislation which delegates powers the Scottish Parliament and executive says that it must act in accordance with EU law. Clearly that'd need to be changed for Brexit, however who now hold the power to change that legislation?

If the power is reserved for the Scottish Parliament, then they're clearly not going to vote to change it. If Westminster retains the power to unilaterally change it, then boom, bye bye Scottish parliament.

I don't know whether similar wording exists in other British legislation, but presumably there would need to be debate in the HoC to substantially change significant pieces of legislation.

So... good luck with trying to do anything else in Parliament for the next x years.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I'm just speculating really. I agree with B62's analysis above.

As I've already posted on the other thread, I'd be astonished if Article 50 isn't formally invoked (in a manner recognised by both sides) before October.

Even if UK politicians haven't got their act together, informal discussions between officials on both sides will have already commenced to thrash out how a suitable compromise (somewhere between tomorrow and October) can be reached. As I say, the question is not "if" but "when".

That is reflected in the subtly shifting public declarations of the politicians on both sides.

(Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Cameron was careful not to mention a date in his original speech; he said it should be "by the time of the Conservative Party conference in October").

[ 26. June 2016, 07:06: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on :
 
Originally posted by Cod:

quote:
I have often heard it stated that under Scots law "the people are sovereign", not Parliament. I've yet to hear an explanation or this and think it's probably a myth.

This claim originates in the Declaration of Arbroath, which includes the words "we have been set free... by our most tireless prince, King and lord, the lord Robert... Yet if he should give up what he has begun, seeking to make us or our kingdom subject to the King of England or the English, we should exert ourselves at once to drive him out as our enemy... and make some other man who was well able to defend us our King" i.e. the King reigns only for so long as the people (or more historically accurately, the landed nobility) want him to.

This is the reason that Scottish sovereigns are designated King / Queen "of Scots" rather than "of Scotland" - they are rulers of a people, not a country.

It is, as you say, a myth; but myths have a function. This myth helps illustrate an understanding of our national identity.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I've just listened to Cameron's speech again. He described the vote as "an instruction that must be delivered". He expressed a preference for his successor, three months on, to be the one who phase "steers our country to the next destination", but left unsaid exactly what that meant.

It strikes me that invoking Article 50 could be more rightly seen as a preliminary to that "steering" than doing the steering itself.

So his speech leaves no question as to Article 50 being the next step ("delivering the instruction"), but leaves the precise question of when - and by whom - entirely open.

[ 26. June 2016, 08:04: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:

It strikes me that invoking Article 50 could be more rightly seen as a preliminary to that "steering" than doing the steering itself.

True. I think the UK wants to keep the full period of 2 years after triggering Article 50 for substantive negotiations (rather than having some it wasted over procedural wranglings). I think the hardliners in the EU are saying, in effect, "bugger that, you're going to get gruel anyway AND you deserve it".

Angela Merkel is sounding quite moderate at present! If I were the UK government I would be doing my level best to keep her in that frame of mind. That would be a free and prudent choice by a sovereign nation enjoying its new independence.

The BS rhetoric about "taking our country back" is going to have worse decisions to face than a bit of give and take over when the negotiations start in earnest.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
If there is any justice through it all then it will be for a coalition of UKIP and the Conservatives with Boris at the helm to take everyone through the new dream they so espoused. Their slow motion car crash would be the lancing of the boil of xenophobia and racism, of the 'triumph' of ignorance about how political debates are conducted and the sort of international politics that only ever thinks in terms of money and what one country can grab for themselves. But I really do wonder if Britain is actually able to do that now. The country is divided, there's a rot set in in politics, there's the strong chance that union will crumble, the presence on the international stage is already very seriously diminished and the looming spectre of a long winter of recession. All of this is happening too with the backdrop of complete denial and a kind of collective blindness that still claims the whole campaign wasn't about racism and xenophobia and that 'leavers' should not be in any way way vilified. After it was all done I asked myself if I really did hear any good, sound, clear and strong arguments about leaving Europe that were not about immigration and fear of Germany (or France or both) and all those mixed up weird hangovers from a pre-EU Europe and I think the honest answer is, no. It is one hell of a price to pay to lance a boil. The alternative is just too dreadful to even contemplate - and I never, ever thought that I would ever say such a thing in my lifetime!
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
It's time for strong benevolence.

That would have reassured the non-metropolitan working class whose identity was overwhelmed by Polish cake shops.
 
Posted by Alex Cockell (# 7487) on :
 
I voted Remain- and seeing the bullying from Farage types took me right back to how afraid I felt in school when I was constantly bullied...
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
It's time for strong benevolence.

That would have reassured the non-metropolitan working class whose identity was overwhelmed by Polish cake shops.
 
Posted by Beenster (# 242) on :
 
I don't know how useful the petition is. But it goes up and up by the minute by a considerable degree. It's up to nearly 3.1m names.
 
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on :
 
If it can get into double figures it will be something that can't be ignored. I doubt it will get that far though.
 
Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :
 
Amusingly, it appears it was started by a Leave voter who thought that Remain might win:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/william-oliver-healey-referendum-petition_uk_576f8b28e4b0232d331e1b39
 
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on :
 
There have now been petitions launched to re-run last Friday's Euromillions lottery because the wrong numbers were drawn and to replay the forthcoming England v Iceland football match if England loses. I think they have just as much legitimacy as this one.
 
Posted by Huia (# 3473) on :
 
How embarrassing for the poor chap
[Killing me]

Huia

Crossposted with Anglican't

[ 26. June 2016, 11:10: Message edited by: Huia ]
 
Posted by Beenster (# 242) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
If it can get into double figures it will be something that can't be ignored. I doubt it will get that far though.

No, I doubt it will get to double figures either. I believe 3m or even 5m smacks of disappointed voters, 10m would indicate a flurry of people who didn't know what they were voting about. i hope Farage signed it tho as it aligned with what he said ahead of the vote.
 
Posted by Beenster (# 242) on :
 
Is this accurate?

http://keithharris.org/petition/

it appears to align with the official site?
 
Posted by Russ (# 120) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
quote:
Originally posted by Moo:
it would set an extremely bad precedent if people could keep demanding new referendums whenever they didn't like the vote on the last one.

Moo

In Canada, we're sort of used to it.
It's a deplorable attitude - that we who know what's best for the country can keep on asking the question until we get the answer we want. And then the people will have spoken and everyone should respect that.

The Irish govt did it on the Treaty of Nice referendum. The Scottish nationalists are arguing for it.

On both sides of the Atlantic we're seeing disillusionment with politics - is it any wonder ?

David Cameron seems a beacon of integrity by contrast. Perhaps the art of losing gracefully is not yet entirely dead...
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
Referendums are one step from mob rule. General election NOW on stay or go.

[ 26. June 2016, 11:31: Message edited by: Martin60 ]
 
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Beenster:
Is this accurate?

http://keithharris.org/petition/

it appears to align with the official site?

It seems to be keeping time with it all right.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Martin60:
quote:

It's time for strong benevolence.

Benevolence for what and to what is the question. It would be very difficult to now act all benevolent to one 'winner' of a campaign who conducted that campaign in veil of racism dressed up as normal politics and yet I think that is the very real danger that Britain is facing; the very real possibility that these ideas become somehow acceptable in mainstream politics.
 
Posted by Joesaphat (# 18493) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Martin60:
quote:

It's time for strong benevolence.

Benevolence for what and to what is the question. It would be very difficult to now act all benevolent to one 'winner' of a campaign who conducted that campaign in veil of racism dressed up as normal politics and yet I think that is the very real danger that Britain is facing; the very real possibility that these ideas become somehow acceptable in mainstream politics.
I'm sick to the back teeth of being told by people who have been campaigning against a much greater referendum majority for forty odd years that I should really chew up and swallow their victory without complaining.
 
Posted by rolyn (# 16840) on :
 
Not sure if this has already been mentioned but the influence of Sun newspaper was very noticeable with the result in Liverpool bucking the National trend, (Liverpudlians don't read it).

If the sun changed it's stance then a second Referendum would no doubt produce a Remain victory. Maybe grievances in the Remain camp need to focus on who, or what controls the bias of our Country's best selling newspaper.
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
Surely the reason Liverpool went Remain was because of its Irish Catholic links rather than anything to do with Mr. Murdoch's publication.
 
Posted by Jengie jon (# 273) on :
 
Not sure those things are entirely unrelated. Jengie
 
Posted by leo (# 1458) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Referendums are one step from mob rule. General election NOW on stay or go.

Which could be forced by the Scottish nationalists in alliance with some from other parties if they voted down the triggering of article 50
 
Posted by Doublethink. (# 1984) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by Beenster:
Is this accurate?

http://keithharris.org/petition/

it appears to align with the official site?

It seems to be keeping time with it all right.
The problem with that petition is that it doesn't specify how many times yoi have an inconclusive referendum before giving up in despair.
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
I spoke to someone this afternoon who voted Leave as a protest against increasing power in Brussels and is now slightly stunned, and concerned by the result. It's affecting his business, people not buying things when they are uncertain about the future.

This is not rare. As I mentioned above, Canadians are experienced with referenda. In both the 1980 and 1995 referenda, I have Québecois non-nationalist friends votre for the Yes, on the grounds that Québec needed to: a) make a statement that it could control its destiny if it chose to do so, b) let other provinces know that Québécois needed to be respected more, c) renegotiate some aspects of the Constitution (no specifics in mind, however), and d) make a self-affirmative statement. None of them thought that a Yes vote would result in departure and I was variously told that I was silly, a scaremonger, and a puppet of corporate imperialism.


I believe Newfoundland held a second referendum on joining Canada, only weeks after "Join" was voted down in the first one. Never quite understood how that could be seen as legitimate, though I guess since Canada wanted them to join, it was easy to convince Ottawa to go along with it.

I'd be interested in hearing anyone else's take on that.

On paper, it was legitimate because there was no absolute majority for any option on the first referendum, the Commission of Government (status quo) option got a significant margin of votes on the first round.

In practice, Canada had made a deal with the UK that Newfoundland would be pushed into Canada's arms, to which end Mackenzie-King turned over to Joey Smallwood a 'hit list' of the Liberal Party's top donors, who wrote generous cheques for Newfoundland's Confederation cause. Which was legal, as there were no electoral financing laws of any kind in Newfoundland at the time.

There have also been persistent rumours that the second vote was 'canted'; that the actual result was against Confederation but the Returning Officer falsified the result, on London's orders.

Strong-arm tactics in Confederation Elections/Referendums are nothing new in Canada. When the country is at stake, no expense is spared.

Thank you, SPK. I suspected that my query might have you along in short order with an answer.

I wasn't aware of the plurality as the rationale for the second referendum, but it makes sense. Also hadn't heard the stories about possible fakery.
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Joesaphat:
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Martin60:
quote:

It's time for strong benevolence.

Benevolence for what and to what is the question. It would be very difficult to now act all benevolent to one 'winner' of a campaign who conducted that campaign in veil of racism dressed up as normal politics and yet I think that is the very real danger that Britain is facing; the very real possibility that these ideas become somehow acceptable in mainstream politics.
I'm sick to the back teeth of being told by people who have been campaigning against a much greater referendum majority for forty odd years that I should really chew up and swallow their victory without complaining.
Most understandable, 2/3rds of 2/3rds who voted. I can understand the need for that referendum when the main parties weren't differentiated by the issue. How could Cameron have avoided the gamble? I imagine he assumed there wasn't one and was he just grandstanding at a non-event.
 
Posted by Augustine the Aleut (# 1472) on :
 
With respect to the Newfoundland referenda, the British government's decision to let the province go to Canada was determined well before the questions were asked. Britain was unable and unwilling to continue to support Newfoundland until it was able to go on its own, and Canada was the least problematic place to put it. While there was some chicanery (in Canada! no!), most Newfoundlanders knew what the eventual result would be. I remember a dinner where Roger Simmons (once an MP from Burin Saint George) saying that, if it had been left up to the Newfoundlanders, they really would have preferred continuing government by the appointed Commission, as it was the most effective and honest that they had ever seen. I asked what would have been the upshot had the voters chosen another option, and I was told that they would have been asked again until they came up with the right answer.
 
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 
The petition tally is increasing at that rate of about 10 a second and is now over 3.4 million. But there has been fraudulent voting as well.

[ 26. June 2016, 18:45: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
 
Posted by Doublethink. (# 1984) on :
 
Well there have been people listing their area as Vatican city and Korea, that is either fraud, confusion or sarcasm
 
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think the Scottish issue is actually really interesting.

As I understand it, the Westminster legislation which delegates powers the Scottish Parliament and executive says that it must act in accordance with EU law. Clearly that'd need to be changed for Brexit, however who now hold the power to change that legislation?

All the legislation does is clarify that Holyrood is bound to act according to EU law and can't pass laws that, for example, contradict regulations made by the EU. Brussels' power to make law for the UK is granted it under Westminster legislation. The obligation is probably there to ensure there is no inconsistency between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

In any event, notifying under Article 50 wouldn't be by Holyrood or in fact by Westminster but the Government.

This is what Adam Tomkins, professor of law at Glasgow University has to say

quote:
“Holyrood has no power to block Brexit. It is not clear that a legislative consent motion would be triggered by Brexit, but withholding consent [NB from Cod: a power Holyrood does have] is not the same as having the power to block. The Scottish parliament does not hold the legal power to block [the UK exiting the EU].”
Pretty clear from Prof Tomkins.

quote:
Mr Cheesy If the power is reserved for the Scottish Parliament, then they're clearly not going to vote to change it. If Westminster retains the power to unilaterally change it, then boom, bye bye Scottish parliament.
The Scottish Parliament has no power at all other than what is granted it under the Westminster legislation that created it. It's a statutory creation with limited power, and not a re-creation of the pre-1707 Scottish Parliament. If the UK did exit the EU the Scottish Parliament would carry on doing what it was designed to do - passing legislation for Scotland. The EU law clause would become otiose as there would be no EU law having force in the UK for it to take note of.

If Scotland was granted independence then a) it would have unlimited powers (subject to whatever the Scottish constitution says) and b) Westminster would surrender power to legislate for Scotland. The same procedure has has happened probably dozens of times since WW2 as various colonies became independent.

quote:
I don't know whether similar wording exists in other British legislation, but presumably there would need to be debate in the HoC to substantially change significant pieces of legislation.
I haven't looked but I expect the same rule applies to the Welsh and NI Assemblies too.

quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Originally posted by Cod:

quote:
I have often heard it stated that under Scots law "the people are sovereign", not Parliament. I've yet to hear an explanation or this and think it's probably a myth.

This claim originates in the Declaration of Arbroath, which includes the words "we have been set free... by our most tireless prince, King and lord, the lord Robert... Yet if he should give up what he has begun, seeking to make us or our kingdom subject to the King of England or the English, we should exert ourselves at once to drive him out as our enemy... and make some other man who was well able to defend us our King" i.e. the King reigns only for so long as the people (or more historically accurately, the landed nobility) want him to.

This is the reason that Scottish sovereigns are designated King / Queen "of Scots" rather than "of Scotland" - they are rulers of a people, not a country.

It is, as you say, a myth; but myths have a function. This myth helps illustrate an understanding of our national identity.

Thanks - the best explanation that I have had, but on what you say it is not something that limits the powers of the Westminster Parliament.
 
Posted by Doublethink. (# 1984) on :
 
Pratically, if Holyrood decided to unilateratelly organise an independence referendum - how exactly would we stop them ? Invade ? If they want to hold a plebicite they will, but the SNP won't want it unless they can get a clear win.

If they hold a vote and get a 60% independence vote - politically, what could the UK do ?
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The Scottish Parliament has no power at all other than what is granted it under the Westminster legislation that created it. It's a statutory creation with limited power, and not a re-creation of the pre-1707 Scottish Parliament. If the UK did exit the EU the Scottish Parliament would carry on doing what it was designed to do - passing legislation for Scotland. The EU law clause would become otiose as there would be no EU law having force in the UK for it to take note of.

Yes. I think that is most likely how it will be resolved, but I don't think it is quite as straightforward as you suggest above.

It is obviously true that the Scottish Parliament has powers which are delegated from Westminster under a specific Act which gave it those powers. And it seems obvious that the delegated power doesn't have a direct say in the Act of Parliament which gave them those powers.

On the other hand, Westminster changing the Act is to change the rules of the game under which Holyrood was set up. So one might think (for politeness if for nothing else), it would require the consent of Holyrood to agree to change the rules.

Even if that isn't the case and that any Holyrood vote wasn't binding on Westminster, clearly the vast majority of Scottish MPs wouldn't vote to change the deal because they're mostly SNP.

So you'd have a situation whereby English MPs would be forcing through a change unwanted by the majority of MPs, MSPs and the popular vote in Scotland. To force things through over the heads of those combined objections is to render the Scottish Parliament a pointless institution - because any other legislation that MSPs decide upon can, under that precedent, be overruled by Westminster.

I think it is very unlikely that powers that are legally delegated to the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh and NI Assemblies and the London Assembly can be so hastily recalled whenever Westminster feels like it.

I also see your expert and I raise this one:

Sir David Edward KCMG, QC, PC, FRSE, Former Judge
of the Court of Justice of the European Union

In evidence to the House of Lords on "the process of withdrawing from the European Union" he said

quote:
We asked Sir David whether he thought the Scottish Parliament would have to give its consent to measures extinguishing the application of EU law in Scotland. He noted that such measures would entail amendment of section 29 of the Scotland Act 1998, which binds the Scottish Parliament to act in a manner compatible with EU law, and he therefore believed that the Scottish Parliament’s consent would be required. He could envisage certain political
advantages being drawn from not giving consent.

It isn't clear who is right. But suggesting that the opinion of a law professor means that the whole notion is dead in the water is clearly just an opinion.

Other opinions are available and it looks likely that it will require a fight in court to see who is correct.
 
Posted by mark_in_manchester (# 15978) on :
 
Reply to Doublethink -

Work out where the unionists live and offer them devo-max, with the rest of Scotland forming a defacto free-state, perhaps having a civil war, and regularising things with England 10-15 years after that?

Well, that's the traditional approach.

[ 26. June 2016, 20:40: Message edited by: mark_in_manchester ]
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
So the UK is an EU member. At the time of the Scottish referendum, the consensus opinion was that if Scotland left the UK, it would leave the EU and would have to be readmitted as a new country.

England and Wales have voted to leave the EU. Scotland (and NI, just) voted to remain.

So in principle, couldn't England and Wales leave the UK? That would leave "the UK" (Scotland and NI) as an EU member with all the UK's exemptions from Schengen, the Euro and so on. It would have to move its capital, or course, although given that London voted to Remain too...

And "England and Wales" can leave the UK, and so in the process leave the EU, and make their own way...
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
And "England and Wales" can leave the UK, and so in the process leave the EU, and make their own way...

This is sort-of what happened when the British government "sold off" British Waterways.

In England and Wales the powers which were previously in the hands of the BW, an arms-length government agency, were delegated to a charity set up for the purpose.

In Scotland they just continued with having British Waterways as part of the government.

A similar situation I think happened with the water supply system in Scotland when England privatised it.
 
Posted by Doublethink. (# 1984) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
So the UK is an EU member. At the time of the Scottish referendum, the consensus opinion was that if Scotland left the UK, it would leave the EU and would have to be readmitted as a new country.

England and Wales have voted to leave the EU. Scotland (and NI, just) voted to remain.

So in principle, couldn't England and Wales leave the UK? That would leave "the UK" (Scotland and NI) as an EU member with all the UK's exemptions from Schengen, the Euro and so on. It would have to move its capital, or course, although given that London voted to Remain too...

And "England and Wales" can leave the UK, and so in the process leave the EU, and make their own way...

It would be interesting to see what UKIP would campaign for. What this would lay bare, is that the English think they rum the UK and would be horrified at the possibility. More practically states with gaps in are very difficult to defend. However, I may try and tweet someone who might know.
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Get on with triggering Article 50. Cameron should do it now while he still has the chance.

If he dithers too much, I think it not unlikely that the EU Council of Ministers will soon take Article 50 as invoked de facto by the referendum.

Before anyone laughs that idea off, it seems (again, from this side of the Channel) at least as plausible than pretending the referendum wasn't supposed to lead directly to Article 50. If not more so.

I don't really think that many people in the UK (and particularly on the Brexit side) give too much of a shit how it looks from that side of the channel. The rules are quite clear. Article 50 may be invoked by a country following its normal procedures. I'm not entirely sure whether the power to invoke article 50 rests with the Queen-in-Parliament or the Queen-in-Council, but it's clear that the recent referendum was not set up as formally binding anyone, so functions as a mere indication of the opinion of the British public.

There is no mechanism for the EU to expel a member state, although there are procedures for various kinds of sanction. Presumably it must be possible for the EU to invent a way of expelling a particularly uncooperative member - if by no other mechanism than by dissolving the EU and forming a new EU with a member missing.

Now, the UK government organizing a referendum on EU membership and then refusing to follow it does have slightly awkward democratic implications, but there's a built-in democratic resolution provided by the election process.

(I agree, of course, that jerking around people you're about to try and make a deal with is usually not a terribly smart move.)
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
I'm not entirely sure whether the power to invoke article 50 rests with the Queen-in-Parliament or the Queen-in-Council,

Of course, if we are drifting in the realms of fantasy, there is always the possibility of the Queen saying 'If I can't do this at 90, when can I do it?' and feeding whatever she is given to sign to the corgis ...
 
Posted by Augustine the Aleut (# 1472) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
I'm not entirely sure whether the power to invoke article 50 rests with the Queen-in-Parliament or the Queen-in-Council,

Of course, if we are drifting in the realms of fantasy, there is always the possibility of the Queen saying 'If I can't do this at 90, when can I do it?' and feeding whatever she is given to sign to the corgis ...
Queen-in-Parliament is legislation, no? And Queen-in-Council the usual executive powers, either by prerogative or by legislation. If she did that, she has to have a PM handy willing to take responsibility-- mind you, that might not be as hard as would have been the case a week ago, when it would have been unimaginable. We have moved into science-fiction and alternate history territory of late.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
I don't really think that many people in the UK (and particularly on the Brexit side) give too much of a shit how it looks from that side of the channel.

That is precisely the thinking that delivered the Leave vote, in that it utterly fails to take into account the neighbouring realities.

It's the UK's prerogative to ignore how dithering will go down with the EU-27, but it's madness to think that dithering will be without its consequences; I can't see any that are good (with the possible exception that seeing how much of a mess the UK is in might just reduce the risk of contagion to other member states).

As to science fiction, it makes House of Cards look even more like a boring documentary than the current US presidential race.
 
Posted by Gee D (# 13815) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
I'm not entirely sure whether the power to invoke article 50 rests with the Queen-in-Parliament or the Queen-in-Council,

Of course, if we are drifting in the realms of fantasy, there is always the possibility of the Queen saying 'If I can't do this at 90, when can I do it?' and feeding whatever she is given to sign to the corgis ...
.
I am a republican, always have been and always will be, but as far as anyone know publicly, HM has acted with perfect propriety throughout her reign. When told to, she'd smile at the Ceacescus. She followed tradition and invited the Thatchers to Balmoral for a fortnight every August. The only brief break has been not by her but by the likes of Cameron. Remember his post-Scottish referendum phone call?
 
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Gee D:
I am a republican, always have been and always will be, but as far as anyone know publicly, HM has acted with perfect propriety throughout her reign. When told to, she'd smile at the Ceacescus. She followed tradition and invited the Thatchers to Balmoral for a fortnight every August.

Quite. I wonder if there will be any calls to restore the monarchy, in the days to come?
 
Posted by David Goode (# 9224) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
I spoke to someone this afternoon who voted Leave as a protest against increasing power in Brussels and is now slightly stunned, and concerned by the result. It's affecting his business, people not buying things when they are uncertain about the future.

As a former boss of mine used to say: "There's only one thing worse than being shot up the ringpiece, and that's shooting yourself up the ringpiece".
 
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on :
 
Leorning Cniht:
quote:
So in principle, couldn't England and Wales leave the UK? That would leave "the UK" (Scotland and NI) as an EU member with all the UK's exemptions from Schengen, the Euro and so on. It would have to move its capital, or course, although given that London voted to Remain too...

So did a few other regions of England and Wales. York voted nearly 2 to 1 to Remain. So did Manchester and Leeds.

In fact you can pretty well see where most of the universities in the country are by looking at the BBC map that shows the referendum results by region: here. See that tiny yellow dot in the middle of East Anglia? That's Norwich (with two universities).
 
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on :
 
Ariel:
quote:
I wonder if there will be any calls to restore the monarchy, in the days to come?
Assuming you mean 'restore the historic powers of the monarchy'... only if Charles agrees to take himself out of the line of succession. She is 90, after all, and he's not as popular.
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
The more I think about it, the more I like this idea.

Scenario:

1. Scotland blocks implementation of Brexit in the HoCs
2. UK government takes Scottish government to court
3. Deadlock because this is an unexpected situation which nobody is sure of how to determine the constitutional ground
4. Meanwhile the uncertainty is causing the economy to tank big time
5. Pressure is pit to bear by UKIP to leave and by the EU to get the hell on with doing something
6. It is determined that the legal process is going to be inconclusive and divisive and the economy can't take it much longer

Then
7. The compromise is suggested that the UK remains but England leaves
8. Referenda in Scotland Wales and NI as to whether to stay in the UK or leave with England.

Benefits to NI are that they can continue with building the economy of the whole island of Ireland and the Unionists can tell themselves they're still in the UK. Benefits to Scotland are that they can tell voters it isn't another Independence vote and that they can set terms of what the UK looks like after England leaves.

The UK then negotiates terms of trading with England as a bilateral agreement. Trading between NI Wales and Scotland continues as they're part of the EU.

The rUK possibly devalues, but England is freed of the costs of the other countries. Everyone gets to decide which side of the partition they want to live in once they understand the costs and benefits.

London becomes a free trade zone like Hong Kong. The rest of England, which voted more than 55% to leave then leaves. Wales too if they want to.

Everyone gets what they wanted.

[ 27. June 2016, 08:59: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
What is far more likely is that ECB simply stops propping up the pound. The EU might start to withdraw certain agreements in a 'sanctions' style if it goes on and on without being addressed, essentially giving the British public what they voted for while their elected leaders continue to sit on their hands. Whatever way it pans out the whole thing is currently extremely volatile and if there is no action soon - as in really very soon - I think peoples' patience will be put to the test.

Britain needs to leave; and soon. Trying to sort through it's own political mess at the same time (or before) as exiting Europe is an insanity that could well poison politics and social cohesion for many decades to come.

[ 27. June 2016, 09:10: Message edited by: fletcher christian ]
 
Posted by Alex Cockell (# 7487) on :
 
I feel sick.

I wanted to stay.

I don't trust BoJo etc AT ALL.

But - I'm not in a position to move and was born in Bromley - so I'm stuck.

I hope the Thames Valley is added to London in that zone... reading voted heavily to remain.

[ 27. June 2016, 09:31: Message edited by: Alex Cockell ]
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:

Britain needs to leave; and soon. Trying to sort through it's own political mess at the same time (or before) as exiting Europe is an insanity that could well poison politics and social cohesion for many decades to come.

I'm not sure anything is going to happen any time soon. Even a GE is looking less likely if both parties are without leaders.
 
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on :
 
quote:
London becomes a free trade zone like Hong Kong. The rest of England, which voted more than 55% to leave then leaves. Wales too if they want to.

Everyone gets what they wanted.

...except the other regions of England and Wales that voted to stay in.

Restore the ancient Viking kingdom of Jorvik!
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:


Restore the ancient Viking kingdom of Jorvik!

True but tough. Wales, Scotland and NI are distinct devolved parts of the UK and Yorkshire isn't. You're part of England so either suck it up or move.
 
Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
Apparently Kelvin McKenzie, former editor of the Sun, unreconstructed bigot and lying scumbag, is now wondering if voting to Leave was such a good idea.

Early days, but one more data point to suggest that buyers remorse is going to kick in over the next few weeks.
 
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on :
 
mr cheesy:
quote:
You're part of England so either suck it up or move.
Funny, that's what the Brexiteers are saying.
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
Funny, that's what the Brexiteers are saying.

OK so how are you suggesting the situation is resolved?
 
Posted by Mark Wuntoo (# 5673) on :
 
Seems increasingly possible that the brexiteers will not be able (with the support of the remainers not being willing to try very hard) to produce acceptable terms: thus a referendum to vote on the terms and, hey presto, the brexiteer public who woke up to find they had made a mistake will be able to vote with the remainers (who always knew they were right) to stay… hope so, anyway.

I do wonder what is really going on in Europe (given that politicians never tell us the background to their statements, making it impossible for us to know what is spin and what is not).
 
Posted by Alan Cresswell (# 31) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mark Wuntoo:
Seems increasingly possible that the brexiteers will not be able (with the support of the remainers not being willing to try very hard) to produce acceptable terms: thus a referendum to vote on the terms and, hey presto, the brexiteer public who woke up to find they had made a mistake will be able to vote with the remainers (who always knew they were right) to stay… hope so, anyway.

Though, once the wheels start turning how easy would it be to stop the juggernaut to exit? If in two years time there is no deal on the table acceptable to the UK, would the EU accept a "Ooops, sorry. We were wrong to vote to leave the EU. Please, let us stay"? Or, rather, on what terms would the other nations in the EU accept that apology? If in two years the UK is faced with an unacceptable trade deal with the EU, and the options are leave the EU and trade with the EU under WTO terms or come back into the EU fold without any of the special terms successive UK governments had negotiated (no rebate, no automatic exemption from Schegen or the Euro, no additional limits on migration from new member states ...) does that qualify as a choice between a rock and a hard place?
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Though, once the wheels start turning how easy would it be to stop the juggernaut to exit? If in two years time there is no deal on the table acceptable to the UK, would the EU accept a "Ooops, sorry. We were wrong to vote to leave the EU. Please, let us stay"? Or, rather, on what terms would the other nations in the EU accept that apology? If in two years the UK is faced with an unacceptable trade deal with the EU, and the options are leave the EU and trade with the EU under WTO terms or come back into the EU fold without any of the special terms successive UK governments had negotiated (no rebate, no automatic exemption from Schegen or the Euro, no additional limits on migration from new member states ...) does that qualify as a choice between a rock and a hard place?

Well one thing we do appear to have clarity on today is that the EU leaders are not taking that the Article has been invoked until it officially has been by the UK government.

So, presumably, if they never invoke the article then the UK continues as an EU country as before. Unless the other EU countries somehow manufacture a way to force it out.

To me the whole "have they invoked or not" question is less important than the home question of what the hell happens if the country does not now leave the EU having had a single referendum that voted in favour of it.

I haven't done the exact numbers yet, but it appears that in England more than 55% of people voted Leave, which is a fairly comfortable and sizeable majority.

To now not leave by some kind of slight of hand would look like treason/betrayal.

Yet another reason why this fucking referendum was the stupidest thing that anyone has ever thought of. Whoever won, we were screwed. As Leave won - and as they've got various bullyboys on their team who might well be looking to disrupt things in undemocratic ways - we'd be looking for double-trouble if there we no signs that it was ever going to happen.

At times like these we need one of those face-in-hands emoticons.
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
Correction, it was 53.4% in England, although I'm not sure if that includes Gibraltar.
 
Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
Originally posted by Mr Cheesy:

quote:
To now not leave by some kind of slight of hand would look like treason/betrayal.
Yeah. But we ain't leaving now. We're leaving at some point within two years of the activation of Article 50. Let's see how enthusiastic everyone when the recession begins to bite.
 
Posted by Mark Wuntoo (# 5673) on :
 
Alan Cresswell: which is why I hope that everyone in the EU knows that we don't really want to leave and will let us play games until we have another referendum ( [Biased] ).
 
Posted by Mark Wuntoo (# 5673) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Originally posted by Mr Cheesy:

quote:
To now not leave by some kind of slight of hand would look like treason/betrayal.
Yeah. But we ain't leaving now. We're leaving at some point within two years of the activation of Article 50. Let's see how enthusiastic everyone when the recession begins to bite.
Yep, that too. A week is a long time, let alone two leadership elections and a General Election and people finding their pockets are empty.
 
Posted by Crœsos (# 238) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Early days, but one more data point to suggest that buyers remorse is going to kick in over the next few weeks.

Bregret?
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mark Wuntoo:
Seems increasingly possible that the brexiteers will not be able (with the support of the remainers not being willing to try very hard) to produce acceptable terms: thus a referendum to vote on the terms and, hey presto, the brexiteer public who woke up to find they had made a mistake will be able to vote with the remainers (who always knew they were right) to stay… hope so, anyway.

There is no "thus".

Again, from this side of the Channel, any suggestion that Brexit isn't going to happen (indeed has already started to happen in every respect bar Article 50), appears delusional.

The question is not "if" but "when" - and tied up with the "when" is the "how", in other words, on what terms. As Alan hints, any idea of "unbrexit" would be on very different terms to the situation on June 22.

[ 27. June 2016, 15:58: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:

Again, from this side of the Channel, any suggestion that Brexit isn't going to happen (indeed has already started to happen in every respect bar Article 50), appears delusional.

Until article 50 is triggered, there is no Brexit, whatever anyone thinks. Until that happens, all we have is a bunch of politicians playing bullshit games.

Bullshit games matter. Let's suppose the UK has enough of a political "oh, shit" moment to not trigger article 50 - then what happens?

First is that there's no Brexit - the UK remains in the EU, on its existing terms. Second is that the UK has pissed away all of its negotiating power on acting like a dick. It does indeed remain in the EU, but its ability to persuade other nations to accommodate its preferences will have been significantly reduced. Third, it's possible that the EU will notice a wider disgruntlement and engage in some reform (but I wouldn't hold my breath). Even if that happens, the UK will have little hope of directing that reform - everyone else will ignore it.

Once the UK triggers article 50, there really is no turning back. Article 50 starts the 2-year clock, and the UK is out of the EU when (or before) the clock runs out. If at any point in that two year negotiation, the UK decides that it doesn't like the deal it's being offered, and would like back in to the EU, there's no chance at all that it would be allowed back in on the old terms.

You might be able to negotiate not joining Schengen (the reality of being islands means that the UK being out of Schengen isn't a big deal), but you can say goodbye to Maggie's rebate, to the various derogations that the UK has negotiated, and to the pound.

The latter is guaranteed, I think. If the UK wanted back in, the EU is going to require a demonstration of commitment, and the Euro is pretty symbolic.

[ 27. June 2016, 16:18: Message edited by: Leorning Cniht ]
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Until article 50 is triggered, there is no Brexit, whatever anyone thinks. Until that happens, all we have is a bunch of politicians playing bullshit games.

I really don't think we do.

Any company with a significant share of business in the EU is, I'm persuaded, either putting any decision to invest in the UK on hold or choosing to invest in a EU-27 country. EU-27 students considering Erasmus are crossing the UK off their list of potential destinations because there's absolutely no guarantee their tuition fees will be met. And so on and so forth.

It's unrealistic to expect everyone in the EU-27 to work on the hypothesis that the UK will somehow trample all over the expressed wish of its people, however much the referendum, question and campaigns sucked, or wait until the politicians have done all the paperwork.
 
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 
And Angela Merkel has upped the ante on delay. Which I am sure has been noted in No 10 and Whitehall.

Meanwhile the number of petitioners keeps rising, looks like topping 4 million. As Croesos said, Bregret.

The pound and the stock market both had bad days. The lack of confidence and the uncertainty are have created an ideal playground for Big Bears and I doubt very much whether we've seen the last of the turbulence.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
And Angela Merkel has upped the ante on delay.

AIUI there was a statement by France, Germany and Italy, and the content of the statement was "no informal negotiations prior to invoking Article 50".

That doesn't look like upping the ante to me; it seems entirely reasonable. Cameron had previously assured everyone that article 50 would happen immediately after a Leave vote.
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:

Any company with a significant share of business in the EU is, I'm persuaded, either putting any decision to invest in the UK on hold or choosing to invest in a EU-27 country. EU-27 students considering Erasmus are crossing the UK off their list of potential destinations because there's absolutely no guarantee their tuition fees will be met. And so on and so forth.

Of course you're right. In the current uncertain conditions, anyone who is wanting the benefits of an EU country or EU market access is unlikely to make new investment in the UK until the situation is clearer. In some cases, that might mean wait and see, and in others, it will mean going elsewhere.

Uncertainty has consequences, and the UK has to face them. That's different from "Brexit is happening", though. If the UK were to have an about-face, and confirm that about-face with a convincing democratic action (such as a snap General Election with a large majority for pro-Remain parties) then I think all this would go back to normal in a year. The UK would have taken a one-time punishment for causing uncertainty, and then everyone would move on.

Now, I don't think that will happen. I don't think many Brexit politicians are about to change their minds, and I am not persuaded that the numbers of remorseful Brexiters are high enough to make a difference (and re-running the vote and getting 52-48 in the other direction wouldn't help. To restore confidence, you'd need a much clearer indication that this wasn't all going to start up again in a couple of years.)

So I think at this point the only game in town is to proceed with Brexit in an orderly fashion. I don't think this requires the triggering of article 50 immediately, though. I think it's entirely rational for the formal notification to come from whoever is picked to replace Mr. Cameron, so the invocation of article 50 can start the actual negotiations (it makes no sense at all to have a lame duck Cameron administration begin negotiations.)

From the EU side of things, "no informal negotiations" is completely rational. The EU doesn't benefit from a drawn-out process, or from hints that maybe the UK will stay if it gets a better deal, or if the deal to leave looks too bad.

If it takes months of negotiations before the shape of the UK's future relationship with the EU becomes clear (and another year after that to tie down the details) then I don't know that waiting a few weeks to start the clock makes any long-term difference.
 
Posted by Crœsos (# 238) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
So I think at this point the only game in town is to proceed with Brexit in an orderly fashion. I don't think this requires the triggering of article 50 immediately, though. I think it's entirely rational for the formal notification to come from whoever is picked to replace Mr. Cameron, so the invocation of article 50 can start the actual negotiations (it makes no sense at all to have a lame duck Cameron administration begin negotiations.)

The question is who gets that short straw. From a commenter on the Guardian's website:

quote:
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

<snip>

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

<snip>

If [Boris Johnson] runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

Nations and governments are built on credibility. I'm not seeing a way to say "we were just playing 'Referendum' for pretend" that doesn't damage the UK, possibly as badly as a withdrawal from the EU would. But this problem runs smack into the difficulty of finding someone willing to be the actual person pulling that trigger. The UK is the dog that caught the Vauxhall.

[ 27. June 2016, 18:09: Message edited by: Crœsos ]
 
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
And Angela Merkel has upped the ante on delay.

AIUI there was a statement by France, Germany and Italy, and the content of the statement was "no informal negotiations prior to invoking Article 50".

That doesn't look like upping the ante to me; it seems entirely reasonable. Cameron had previously assured everyone that article 50 would happen immediately after a Leave vote.

Officials normally have "talks about talks" to set up formal negotiations. They clear protocols, set up agenda. If these preliminaries have been ruled out, which seems possible, then her position has hardened. The ground clearing will need to take place within the two year period.

And, as you know, the two year timetable works in favour of the EU. They can wait out serious disagreements.

[ 27. June 2016, 18:15: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
Someone just uploaded this flowchart allegedly by Credit Suisse to twitter.

I can't vouch for the authenticity, but it does show quite neatly the apparent options available and it wouldn't surprise me if the banks had not been contemplating the likely outcomes of the referendum vote like this.

It is interesting that they seem to think that negotiated terms of Brexit might be sent to a second referendum..
 
Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
And Angela Merkel has upped the ante on delay.

AIUI there was a statement by France, Germany and Italy, and the content of the statement was "no informal negotiations prior to invoking Article 50".

That doesn't look like upping the ante to me; it seems entirely reasonable. Cameron had previously assured everyone that article 50 would happen immediately after a Leave vote.

Officials normally have "talks about talks" to set up formal negotiations. They clear protocols, set up agenda. If these preliminaries have been ruled out, which seems possible, then her position has hardened. The ground clearing will need to take place within the two year period.

And, as you know, the two year timetable works in favour of the EU. They can wait out serious disagreements.

From what I can make out this seems to be a consensus across the chancelleries of Europe. Merkel strikes me as being comparatively dovish and conciliatory, as these things go, but she is one of 27, albeit one of the more powerful leaders. The thing to watch will be the Eastern Europeans who are probably going to take a certain amount of offence on behalf of their nationals given the "If you want a Romanian for a neighbour, vote remain" tone of the Leave campaign. So, yes, no negotiations until Article 50 is activated and then two years to sort things out with 27 governments who are as pissed as hell and not minded to be obliging.

Bear in mind that we handed the business of trade negotiations to the EU when we joined so there is no-one with the relevant skill set in the DTI and any trade negotiators we once had are probably charming matron in a care home somewhere with anecdotes about their memories of Valery Giscard D'Estaing and Ted Heath and the chaps in charge of the UK effort will be Incitatus and Michael Gove who struggled to make an impression negotiating with the Tube Unions and primary school teachers. The whole thing is going to resemble the Mitchell and Webb sketch with David Mitchell as Admiral Doenitz. "Here's General Eisenhower's telephone number, here's the English for "we surrender" and here's a summary of our military position in one rude word".
 
Posted by ThunderBunk (# 15579) on :
 
Presumably, there are some EU trade commissioners who are about to be short of work.

Do I detect a minor irony?
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
Sorry - just to continue thinking about that flow chart - another interesting thing is that it seems to have a "spanner in the works" box for "swing in public opinion caused by austerity" which could have unpredictable effects in all directions.

Even if this thing is a total fake, someone has gone to some effort thinking this through. I only hope someone in government is thinking along these lines...
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Someone just uploaded this flowchart allegedly by Credit Suisse to twitter.

Spot what's missing? Article 50.

B62, I very much doubt that a public announcement of "no talks about talks" means there are none, even if only back-channel talks. But it is reasonable for call in public for the formal process to move forward. Weeks or months, perhaps, but I still can't see everyone waiting until September 2 for Article 50.

Croesos, I think a really good leader could take the job nobody wants and turn it into a truly great achievement. The problem is finding a candidate with the available calibre.
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Spot what's missing? Article 50.

B62, I very much doubt that a public announcement of "no talks about talks" means there are none, even if only back-channel talks. But it is reasonable for call in public for the formal process to move forward. Weeks or months, perhaps, but I still can't see everyone waiting until September 2 for Article 50.

The more I think about this, the more I'm wondering if actually the British are playing a stronger hand than it appears at first. Yes, there are economic ruptures in the UK, but these are being felt in the EU, in Japan and the USA and everywhere else.

If it is true that the EU economy is inherently unstable then the British might actually be well to bide their time and see how much pain the EU can take because there is nothing anyone else can do about Article 50.

Which is a dangerous strategy, but I suppose it is possible that in time the markets would recognise a decisive British position (even if the decision was not to decide until they're damn well ready to decide) and stabilise.

I don't know enough about economics to know if that's true or whether the British economy would survive longer than the Eurozone economy given that the latter has some countries which are very near to being broke to deal with. I wonder how well Greece is coping with the extra shocks of Brexit, for example.
 
Posted by Humble Servant (# 18391) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mark Wuntoo:
Seems increasingly possible that the brexiteers will not be able (with the support of the remainers not being willing to try very hard) to produce acceptable terms: thus a referendum to vote on the terms and, hey presto, the brexiteer public who woke up to find they had made a mistake will be able to vote with the remainers (who always knew they were right) to stay… hope so, anyway.


Yep, that's the way to go - at least if you believe what you read in the papers:
fightback-against-brexit-on-cards
stop brexit
I've written to my MP urging him to support a general election or 2nd referendum based on a coherent plan.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Just how do you think that will play

a) with the Leave voters (yes I know everyone's been posting comments from the Bregretters, but that's not all 17 million of them)

b) with the EU-27?

Whatever happens now, the UK is already in a far worse bargaining position with the (rest of the) EU than it was before Thursday. Telling the (rest of the) EU that it's basically been having a domestic identity crisis at the EU's expense these past few days is not going to go down well.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
the Leave voters (yes I know everyone's been posting comments from the Bregretters, but that's not all 17 million of them)

Idle Googling led me here, which suggests that when you take into account people changing their minds on both sides, Leave still comes out ahead.
 
Posted by Crœsos (# 238) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Telling the (rest of the) EU that it's basically been having a domestic identity crisis at the EU's expense these past few days is not going to go down well.

It's also not likely to resolve the crisis of confidence investors are already feeling towards future dealings in the UK. Suddenly switching back to "Remain" will not be regarded as credible since in implies an equal ease with which switching back once again to "Leave" could be accomplished. Investors may be willing to do business with a UK outside the EU, but what they really hate is uncertainty.
 
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Until article 50 is triggered, there is no Brexit, whatever anyone thinks. Until that happens, all we have is a bunch of politicians playing bullshit games.

I really don't think we do.

...

It's unrealistic to expect everyone in the EU-27 to work on the hypothesis that the UK will somehow trample all over the expressed wish of its people, however much the referendum, question and campaigns sucked, or wait until the politicians have done all the paperwork.

And yet even if all those people give up on the UK, if the UK doesn't pull out, in a couple years they'll be back or people like them. New students new, or the same companies, etc. If the UK does pull back then none of those people come back at all. That doesn't make hurrying up and leaving an obviously better proposition for the UK in my eyes.
 
Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
It wouldn't be the first time that the EU has accepted a re-run of a referendum would it? And I think that give that the UK is a net contributor and the world's sixth biggest economy might incline people to be a little bit forgiving.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Note the date: I agree with Croesos [Big Grin]
 
Posted by PaulTH* (# 320) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Humble Servant:
I've written to my MP urging him to support a general election or 2nd referendum based on a coherent plan.

Although the referendum result isn't binding on parliament, I couldn't accept parliament just setting it aside, with or without a general election. That shows utter contempt for democracy. Another example of the political elite thinking they know better than the people. I would be perfectly happy in trying to reverse the vote in a new referendum, but it would have to be based on what HS has called a coherent plan. I don't think it's worth doing unless there is something new to offer, otherwise it's by no means certain that it would produce a different result.

Misguided though many us us feel it to be, it was fear of uncontrollable immigration, often in Labour heartlands, which tipped the vote in favour of Brexit. But it is absolutely clear that in any future negotiations with the EU, access to the single market can't be achieved without the acceptance of free movement. We could probably get a deal as good as Norway, but they still pay into the EU budget and accept free movement. Although this was always obvious, the Remain campaign should have stressed this point rather than talking in apocalyptic terms about a third world war.
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:

a) with the Leave voters (yes I know everyone's been posting comments from the Bregretters, but that's not all 17 million of them)

If a clear majority of the country (not another 52-48 split) were to switch allegiance, it doesn't matter how it would go down with the Leave voters.

Of course they'd be angry, and would feel that they almost had their way and were robbed at the last minute. But if there was a convincing majority in favour of remain, then it doesn't matter what the Leavers think. This isn't a game - it's real life, and people are allowed to change their minds. There's no rule that says you have to play a piece just because you touched it.

But it would have to be a convincing majority, and I don't expect that to happen.

quote:

b) with the EU-27?

Badly.

If the UK changes its mind before invoking article 50, it remains in the EU and there's nothing the EU can do about it. But the influence of the UK in the EU will now be basically zero (well, maybe the Polish might still talk to us every now and then).

quote:
Whatever happens now, the UK is already in a far worse bargaining position with the (rest of the) EU than it was before Thursday.
I think if you're a Brexit believer, this isn't true in a meaningful sense. Before the referendum, Cameron went to the EU, laid his cards on the table and basically said "I need something to convince my country to stay in the EU", and what he got was basically meaningless platitudes.

The rational part of Brexitland thinks that it an get a trade deal that is better for the UK than being an EU member. This isn't impossible, depending on your point of view.

It is clear that the EU isn't going to offer the UK more benefits for less cost. The question is whether some kind of partial agreement would suit both parties better, and the answer could well be yes.
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
I think we might need a total political realignment.

In the General Election which I expect to see quite soon, I would like there to be parties (which might not be the same parties that we have at the moment) which express a clear view on what direction we should take now:

* Brexit-lite (Norway option)
* Brexit-medium (maybe like Switzerland)
* Brexit-plus (as separate as USA)
 
Posted by Mark Wuntoo (# 5673) on :
 
Talks are taking place behind closed doors and we have absolutely no idea who is saying what to whom. Is it not conceivable that Cameron et al are making it clear to EU leaders that they have a cunning plan to remain?
The UK has been guilty of messing with the EU. But in spite of this, to some it might appear to be a failure of the EU as an organisation if a member wishes to leave. So perhaps there might be more tolerance by the EU towards UK than we might think (or deserve).
Just a thought - wishful thinking probably. [Waterworks]
 
Posted by Humble Servant (# 18391) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
quote:
Originally posted by Humble Servant:
I've written to my MP urging him to support a general election or 2nd referendum based on a coherent plan.

Although the referendum result isn't binding on parliament, I couldn't accept parliament just setting it aside, with or without a general election. That shows utter contempt for democracy.
But it wouldn't mean setting aside the vote - that's the beauty. Take seriously the fact that the people have voted against the EU. Build a plan for what the exit deal could look like. Will it include zero immigration? (no). Will it include 350 million a week for our NHS? (no). Will it include continued subsidies for farmers? (perhaps). Will it include continued support for disadvantaged communities? (it needs to). Will it involve free access to the European market? (no). Etc.

Once we know what we voting for, not what we're voting against, then we should be asked to vote.

The people have not spoken yet. They have simply blown a raspberry.
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Perhaps you should first seek a referendum on whether the campaign arguments and promises on both sides prior to the real, actual, honest-to-goodness-this-one-counts second referendum* are "legal, decent, honest, and truthful". [Roll Eyes]

*Errors, omissions, and unfavourable results excepted.
 
Posted by Alan Cresswell (# 31) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
I think we might need a total political realignment.

In the General Election which I expect to see quite soon, I would like there to be parties (which might not be the same parties that we have at the moment) which express a clear view on what direction we should take now:

* Brexit-lite (Norway option)
* Brexit-medium (maybe like Switzerland)
* Brexit-plus (as separate as USA)

Such a party political realignment would, of course, be a total disaster. Yes, EU-UK relations and the form that takes is a vital issue that needs to be resolved. But, it is just one issue. Parties based around different forms of that relationship are unlikely to have much else in common, so one of them is going to form a totally useless government with no agreement on domestic policies - and, for many people, how the NHS is run is probably more important for many. As is the state of our schools, being able to walk the streets safe etc.
 
Posted by Crœsos (# 238) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Perhaps you should first seek a referendum on whether the campaign arguments and promises on both sides prior to the real, actual, honest-to-goodness-this-one-counts second referendum* are "legal, decent, honest, and truthful". [Roll Eyes]

*Errors, omissions, and unfavourable results excepted.

But you'd have to have a referendum on that referendum concerning the new referendum first, surely?
 
Posted by Stetson (# 9597) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Humble Servant:
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
quote:
Originally posted by Humble Servant:
I've written to my MP urging him to support a general election or 2nd referendum based on a coherent plan.

Although the referendum result isn't binding on parliament, I couldn't accept parliament just setting it aside, with or without a general election. That shows utter contempt for democracy.
But it wouldn't mean setting aside the vote - that's the beauty. Take seriously the fact that the people have voted against the EU. Build a plan for what the exit deal could look like. Will it include zero immigration? (no). Will it include 350 million a week for our NHS? (no). Will it include continued subsidies for farmers? (perhaps). Will it include continued support for disadvantaged communities? (it needs to). Will it involve free access to the European market? (no). Etc.

Once we know what we voting for, not what we're voting against, then we should be asked to vote.


And if, during the second Referendum, one or both of the sides puts forth further false claims or inapplicable promises that don't get properly refuted(by someone's standards, anyway), are you going to set aside THOSE results as well, on the grounds that the public once again wasn't making an informed decision?

The Second Referendum crowd make it sound as if the Brexit vote was unique in terms of dodgy statements being made to mislead the public. It wasn't. That happens in almost every election or referendum that takes place, and it's considered the duty of voters to use discernment in evaluating the various platforms. If they don't do that, well, that's unfortunate, but it's usually not considered sufficient grounds for re-holding the vote.
 
Posted by Crœsos (# 238) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Although the referendum result isn't binding on parliament, I couldn't accept parliament just setting it aside, with or without a general election. That shows utter contempt for democracy. Another example of the political elite thinking they know better than the people.

It's debatable as to whether a 52-48 result gives a clear indication of the will of the people in any unambiguous way. For a sudden, disruptive, and irreversible change to a longstanding status quo (like the Brexit) I'd personally prefer some kind of supermajority standard (>60%, for instance) so that the result is definitive, rather than subject to schizophrenic wobbling back and forth due to the shifting opinion of a public largely in equipoise.

Or a supermajority requirement could be approached from a practical standpoint. Noting that an important issue in the recent Scottish independence referendum was retaining EU membership and proceeding from the premise that maintaining the integrity of the UK is more important than either leaving or remaining in the EU, a standard could have been adopted that Leave wins only by carrying majorities in each of the four constituent members of the UK. Given the UK's largely unwritten constitution all kinds of options were available.

But the most destructive choice would be to change the standard post facto to achieve a predetermined preferred result. There was nothing that said Cameron had to use a simple majority vote of 50% + 1 for the Brexit (or hold a referendum on the subject at all!) but having made that decision the UK is stuck with it and all its attendant consequences.
 
Posted by Curiosity killed ... (# 11770) on :
 
It's another example of the stupidity of the whole damn thing that it wasn't set up in an unambiguous way. Most constitutional changes to charities and businesses require a 2/3 vote and a quorum to pass, maybe over two successive meetings. Cameron continues to shine as a beacon of chutzpah and a demonstration of how not to do things. And having got us into this mess his solution is to resign and wash his hands of any consequences.

Please can we just accept we're in this mess and rather than concentrate on ways of undoing what is done, use that energy to focus on how to move forward?

[ 28. June 2016, 05:27: Message edited by: Curiosity killed ... ]
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:

Please can we just accept we're in this mess and rather than concentrate on ways of undoing what is done, use that energy to focus on how to move forward?

I have sympathy with this, however I think it is important to try exhaust all legal ways to prevent it. Moving forward is a tricky concept when the only way Scotland could be Brexited would be by the will of the English over-and-above the will of the Scottish people.

Hence there needs to be some kind of resolution.
 
Posted by Alan Cresswell (# 31) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
Please can we just accept we're in this mess and rather than concentrate on ways of undoing what is done, use that energy to focus on how to move forward?

It still begs the question, "move onto where?" If there had been a defined description of what position relative to the EU the Leave campaign wanted to try to obtain then wed simply get on with moving towards it. But, there wasn't. We still need to find out who from the Leave campaign will be leading us forward, and where they want to lead us. At that point we will know what question we were asked on Thursday, and where we are going. Until then we're just milling around with no where to go.
 
Posted by Curiosity killed ... (# 11770) on :
 
That was pretty much implicit in my desire to focus on going forward, a plan for how we exit, rather than trying to find ways to negate the vote.
 
Posted by Alan Cresswell (# 31) on :
 
The question is, to what extent can we contribute to defining that way forward? Especially those of us who chose to Remain, for whom any option other than staying in the EU is a disaster, what can we contribute when we're now faced with a range of options we don't want, all of which are hugely problematic.

Get specific, how do I contribute to that debate when what I want to say is that any solution should include free movement of labour and unlimited migration between the UK and the EU? Or, that we need a central bureaucratic structure to coordinate standards, a central policy and administration on fisheries, environment, and a host of other trans-national issues. And, a central fund for research and development across Europe. Where does a Europhile who would have prefered to be in a situation where the UK is in the Eurozone and Schengen ahead of where we were at the start of last week fit into a national debate to take the country in what to the depth of my bones is the wrong direction?
 
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I'm very out of touch with UK party politics, but I think this makes Theresa May a good candidate to replace Cameron. Wikipedia tells me she's "a Eurosceptic but campaigned for the Remain campaign in the 2016 EU referendum". That puts her in a position to take Remain's lumps and work in line with her ideals to lead a position outside the EU.
 
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 
I think the two short listed candidates are likely to be May and Bojo. And May may attract grassroots support because of her loyalty, despite her Euroscepticism. Boris as a party unifier is a bit of a joke, really. Very different circumstances, but post-Thatcher, the party didn't go for Hezza, despite his barnstorming. Maybe they would have, if the election rules had been different?

We live in surprising times, so I'm prepared to hear that a wild card turns up. I'm Labour, as is well known, but given the current shambles in my party, I'm more than a little interested in who the Tory Party chooses.

Anyone, but Bojo, PLEASE! I think he'd be a complete disaster.

On the thread topic (!), I think opinion is shifting rapidly as the real consequences unfold. Anything that looks like a "fiddle" isn't going to run. But a General Election which showed public regret and a change of heart would not be a fiddle. Particularly if it happened in the early stages of Brexit negotations.

A genuine national repentance might make a difference. Things cannot be the same, there has been too much damage for that. But it might be possible to repair and restore relationships, recover some good will. It's a very long shot, but I guess under those circumstances the exit process could be abandoned.
 
Posted by Beenster (# 242) on :
 
Just watching Jeremy Kyle. Sad to say that he models reconciliation but happily I don't think he is a contender.
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Beenster:
Just watching Jeremy Kyle. Sad to say that he models reconciliation but happily I don't think he is a contender.

Jeremy Kyle for PM. That'd be something.
 
Posted by Hiro's Leap (# 12470) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
On the thread topic (!), I think opinion is shifting rapidly as the real consequences unfold.

Maybe, but I'm wary of confirmation bias.

From the 24-25th June Post-Brexit Poll Eutychus mentioned earlier, with a sample of 1033 people:

 
Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
That was pretty much implicit in my desire to focus on going forward, a plan for how we exit, rather than trying to find ways to negate the vote.

The thing is how we exit is going to be as divisive as whether we exit Broadly speaking supporters of Leave, like Gaul, can be divided into three parts.

The first part are those who supported Lexit, the people who opposed the EU on allegedly left-wing grounds. We can disregard them on the grounds that their opinions are neither salient or relevant. People who voted a coalition of turbo-capitalists and angry nativists as a road to socialism score ten out of ten for boldness, from which, I fear, we must subtract several million for good judgement. Whilst we, on the remain side, peer at our enemies through a fog of mutual suspicion and distrust we can, like Tommiy and Fritz on Christmas Day 1914 come together in the shared appreciation of the fact that Giles Fraser is a bit of a pratt.

Our serious enemies are the angry nativists for whom this was a vote to reduced immigration to the 10s of thousands and the turbo-capitalists for whom this was a vote to make Britain a kind of libertarian tax haven off the coast of Europe. If you think of this as a kind of peasants revolt led by romantic aristocrats then the guys on horseback with the flowing locks are Boris, Gove and co. and the guys with pitchforks and torches are the people who want to get rid of the ethnics. Like many peasant revolts they have scored a striking early success. They have decapitated a royal official (Mr Cameron) and scattered the loyalist garrison (The rest of us) and they are now marching on the Keep of Queen Angela to present their demands. Unfortunately for them, wicked Queen Angela has the economic equivalent of cannon. They have two choices. They can have access to the single market and accept the principle of free movement whilst being outside the juridical structure of the EU in part or they can have restrictions on freedom of movement and trade with the EU on WTO terms. This presents the turbo-capitalists with a dilemma. Do they say "fie upon thee, base Queen, we have pledged our word to these good men and true and will stand by them no matter the costs. We shall have no ethnics in our free realm". Or do they say "sorry chaps, whilst we might have given you the impression that we would end free movement there was nothing about it on the ballot paper Caveat Emptor as we say at Eton. When I say this is a dilemma, I exaggerate somewhat. There is very little in the career of Boris Johnson that indicates that he would have scruples about betraying working class voters in order to keep the City of London in the style to which they have become accustomed. So frankly the vox populi is going to be set aside one way or another, anyway. Those of us who want to see it put aside by remain merely have the virtue of greater candour.
 
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:

The Second Referendum crowd make it sound as if the Brexit vote was unique in terms of dodgy statements being made to mislead the public. It wasn't. That happens in almost every election or referendum that takes place, and it's considered the duty of voters to use discernment in evaluating the various platforms. If they don't do that, well, that's unfortunate, but it's usually not considered sufficient grounds for re-holding the vote.

Except, unlike in an election, there isn't a chance to have another go in 4-5 years time...
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
Maybe in 40 or 50 years' time.

[ 28. June 2016, 12:06: Message edited by: TurquoiseTastic ]
 
Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
I exaggerate somewhat. There is very little in the career of Boris Johnson that indicates that he would have scruples about betraying working class voters in order to keep the City of London in the style to which they have become accustomed. So frankly the vox populi is going to be set aside one way or another, anyway. Those of us who want to see it put aside by remain merely have the virtue of greater candour.

Except it looks like Johnson is back-peddling furiously with various Leave MPs in order to pick up support for his leadership bid.
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
I like it Callan, but, are you, chris stiles, inferring that BoJo will go with politics rather than economics? I thought so initially. The marginal people that will keep him in power are those against the EU free mobility of labour. But 'ang on, they've got what they want. Why should Boris take any notice of them? He MUST let the City let rip. Introduce an Australian points based immigration system. The leavers will pay ANY price, so membership of the Single Market is irrelevant. They've wiped over a trillion dollars off world markets. The value of the pound and our credit rating are nowt to them. Food price inflation? Dah. It's win-win for Boris. Ignore the adoring multi-racial working class, while in their magnanimous victory they persecute Poles, Balts and Romanians, and make money for the elite. London can have its cosmopolitan cake AND eat it. What a wonderful world. You know it makes sense.

Who needs Satan?

[ 28. June 2016, 15:05: Message edited by: Martin60 ]
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
Wee...ee..ee..ll, what if Labour & LDs completely self-destruct (looking quite likely ATM) and UKIP (or worse) become the opposition? Then PM Boris might feel compelled to pull up the drawbridge in order to avoid future PM Farage (or worse).
 
Posted by PaulTH* (# 320) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
He MUST let the City let rip. Introduce an Australian points based immigration system. The leavers will pay ANY price, so membership of the Single Market is irrelevant.

But yesterday Boris was suggesting that preserving access to the single market was a higher priority than controlling immigration. I've always believed that fear of immigration from the EU is misguided, but it was the single biggest factor in the Leave vote. Besides if we accept a Norwegian model, why did we have a referendum? They pay into the EU budget and accept free movement. The long term possibility of securing better trade deals unfettered by EU regulations still exists, but nothing will be materially different between the Norwegian model and what we have now, except that we won't have a seat at any of the tables where the rules are made.
 
Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :
 
OK. He's actually got more economic than political sense. Which is good! Bugger.
 
Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Wee...ee..ee..ll, what if Labour & LDs completely self-destruct (looking quite likely ATM) and UKIP (or worse) become the opposition? Then PM Boris might feel compelled to pull up the drawbridge in order to avoid future PM Farage (or worse).

Ye Gads, don't even think that.
 
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The Scottish Parliament has no power at all other than what is granted it under the Westminster legislation that created it. It's a statutory creation with limited power, and not a re-creation of the pre-1707 Scottish Parliament. If the UK did exit the EU the Scottish Parliament would carry on doing what it was designed to do - passing legislation for Scotland. The EU law clause would become otiose as there would be no EU law having force in the UK for it to take note of.

Yes. I think that is most likely how it will be resolved, but I don't think it is quite as straightforward as you suggest above.

It is obviously true that the Scottish Parliament has powers which are delegated from Westminster under a specific Act which gave it those powers. And it seems obvious that the delegated power doesn't have a direct say in the Act of Parliament which gave them those powers.

On the other hand, Westminster changing the Act is to change the rules of the game under which Holyrood was set up. So one might think (for politeness if for nothing else), it would require the consent of Holyrood to agree to change the rules.

You are right - and accordingly there is a convention (which in legal terms is rather like a gentleman's agreement) that Westminster will seek Holyrood's consent before legislating in an area that falls within its delegated powers.

quote:
Even if that isn't the case and that any Holyrood vote wasn't binding on Westminster, clearly the vast majority of Scottish MPs wouldn't vote to change the deal because they're mostly SNP.

So you'd have a situation whereby English MPs would be forcing through a change unwanted by the majority of MPs, MSPs and the popular vote in Scotland. To force things through over the heads of those combined objections is to render the Scottish Parliament a pointless institution - because any other legislation that MSPs decide upon can, under that precedent, be overruled by Westminster.

This is a political issue rather than a legal one, and of course it might be just as much of an obstacle. However, politics tends to change far more quickly than the law does. And in any event, for present purposes it can't mean that the Scottish Government can legally prevent the Prime Minister from notifying under Article 50.

quote:
I think it is very unlikely that powers that are legally delegated to the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh and NI Assemblies and the London Assembly can be so hastily recalled whenever Westminster feels like it.
Constitutionally speaking (notwithstanding the convention above) that is the position. The British constitution (and the NZ one for that matter) are both very simple indeed on this point) - the Westminster Parliament has the power to legislate in whatever area it chooses (although of course judges get the final say on how it is interpreted - and they are going to make life difficult for bad law).

quote:
I also see your expert and I raise this one:

Sir David Edward KCMG, QC, PC, FRSE, Former Judge
of the Court of Justice of the European Union

In evidence to the House of Lords on "the process of withdrawing from the European Union" he said

quote:
We asked Sir David whether he thought the Scottish Parliament would have to give its consent to measures extinguishing the application of EU law in Scotland. He noted that such measures would entail amendment of section 29 of the Scotland Act 1998, which binds the Scottish Parliament to act in a manner compatible with EU law, and he therefore believed that the Scottish Parliament’s consent would be required. He could envisage certain political
advantages being drawn from not giving consent.

It isn't clear who is right. But suggesting that the opinion of a law professor means that the whole notion is dead in the water is clearly just an opinion.

Other opinions are available and it looks likely that it will require a fight in court to see who is correct.

True, and I haven't had the time to read the paper (sorry for delay in replying btw), but I think what Sir David Edward says is only relevant to the process of removing EU law from the UK statute book, not the triggering of Article 50. Removing UK law from the EU statute book could only happen after the Article 50 negotiation is complete. This is because in the meantime the UK remains a member of the EU, and accordingly repealing the legislation that gives EU law force would be a gross treaty breach. It is possible that Westminster should, under the convention, ask Holyrood its consent to legislate on the basis that once the Article 50 process is complete Westminster will need to legislate to remove EU law from the Scottish statute book. Or possibly the convention should simply give way in the fact of a UK-wide majority leave vote.

Once again, it's amazing no one thought about this until the last minute. I note this report wasn't published until June. I am dismayed.

I did see an article by Geoffrey Robertson QC saying Scotland did have the legal right to block. It's somewhere on the Guardian website. I haven't time to find it now, but I do remember that he didn't give his reasons for this view. I prefer Tomkins' view myself.

quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
So the UK is an EU member. At the time of the Scottish referendum, the consensus opinion was that if Scotland left the UK, it would leave the EU and would have to be readmitted as a new country.

England and Wales have voted to leave the EU. Scotland (and NI, just) voted to remain.

So in principle, couldn't England and Wales leave the UK? That would leave "the UK" (Scotland and NI) as an EU member with all the UK's exemptions from Schengen, the Euro and so on. It would have to move its capital, or course, although given that London voted to Remain too...

And "England and Wales" can leave the UK, and so in the process leave the EU, and make their own way...

Possibly. It would depend which was the genuine "successor state" at international law. The successor state gets to keep the rights and obligations (ie, membership of treaties, the currency, debts, investments and so on). Had Scotland broken away from the UK its argument to be a successor state would have been very weak. Given the sheer comparative size of England and Wales I don't think they would have the same problem.

I think overall there are two conclusions to bear in mind.

1. The Government, as the Queen's currently appointed representatives ("state" ultimately means "the Queen" in UK constitutional law) can notify under Article 50 right now. If they break a convention in the process, that's tough, but it can't impeach the process. The only way to prevent this is for Parliament to bring a no-confidence vote and force their resignation and replacement with a government who won't exercise it.

2. There is no legal way the EU can force the UK government to exercise Article 50. This is really, really very clear, and any politician who says otherwise is just talking guff. The UK Gvt can twiddle their thumbs and wait.
 
Posted by Doublethink. (# 1984) on :
 
Currently unofficial pro-eu demonstration outside the Houses of Parliament.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The UK Gvt can twiddle their thumbs and wait.

It can. I do not think that when the 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU they meant twiddle your thumbs and wait. Wait for what? Till everyone has forgotten about it?
It's pretty obvious that nobody has a clue what the 52% did mean, but indefinitely twiddling thumbs is not a candidate. The campaign for a second referendum shows more respect for the result than that.
 
Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
I exaggerate somewhat. There is very little in the career of Boris Johnson that indicates that he would have scruples about betraying working class voters in order to keep the City of London in the style to which they have become accustomed. So frankly the vox populi is going to be set aside one way or another, anyway. Those of us who want to see it put aside by remain merely have the virtue of greater candour.

Except it looks like Johnson is back-peddling furiously with various Leave MPs in order to pick up support for his leadership bid.
This is a bloke who spent the last month driving up and down the country on a bus emblazoned with the claim that leaving the EU would lead to £350m per week extra spending on the National Health Service, so I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that he might not be the most honest man in British public life, at the moment.
 
Posted by Russ (# 120) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:

Please can we just accept we're in this mess and rather than concentrate on ways of undoing what is done, use that energy to focus on how to move forward?

When a relationship dies, you can't move forward until you've worked through the shock, denial, and anger.

Seems like this is the denial phase...
 
Posted by quetzalcoatl (# 16740) on :
 
Yes, it seems like classic mourning, can't remember all the stages, but certainly, rage, denial, bargaining, depression and acceptance. But crucially, they are not linear. People don't move through them in neat stages at all.
 
Posted by quetzalcoatl (# 16740) on :
 
Oops, I forgot guilt. How could I?
 
Posted by Curiosity killed ... (# 11770) on :
 
It isn't that I don't recognise the grief, but there's all those recommendations that people don't do things they will later regret when in the first 6 - 12 months after the event?

(Which is why we should have had a plan for what we did in the event of a Brexit before we went into the referendum.)
 
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The UK Gvt can twiddle their thumbs and wait.

It can. I do not think that when the 52% of the UK voted to leave the EU they meant twiddle your thumbs and wait. Wait for what? Till everyone has forgotten about it?
It's pretty obvious that nobody has a clue what the 52% did mean, but indefinitely twiddling thumbs is not a candidate. The campaign for a second referendum shows more respect for the result than that.

It's been pointed out (I forget where I read it - I think in a paper published in a journal on constitutional law) that 2 years is a hopelessly short time to amend the statute book, let alone negotiate brexit. Plus, the Guardian reports today that the Civil Service are insufficiently staffed to take on the extra burden of amending the laws, and amending their own operations so that the amended laws can be administered. That being so, I don't think anyone is going to want to press the button in a hurry.
 
Posted by Russ (# 120) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
we should have had a plan for what we did in the event of a Brexit before we went into the referendum.

Undoubtedly. This referendum has been on the cards for how long ? UKIP has existed for how long ?

It seems unbelievable that no-one has put together a roadmap of what the Brexit future looks like.

How could so many words have been written and spoken on this topic without clarifying what people were actually voting for or against ?

Once upon a time Britain was a serious country with a professional approach to international relations. Now we ignite this bombshell under the current world order and then say we'll elect someone to sort out the mess in three months time ??!!
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Russ:

It seems unbelievable that no-one has put together a roadmap of what the Brexit future looks like.

As noted elsewhere, the leave vote is a coalition of people with basically opposite interests. Putting together a roadmap would imply picking some of those interests, which means that the disfavoured Leave voters probably wouldn't vote Leave.

So it's in the interests of the people who think they hold the dominant Brexit opinion to string the others along until after the referendum, and then dump them.

Guess what happened?

quote:

How could so many words have been written and spoken on this topic without clarifying what people were actually voting for or against ?

Almost nobody was voting for anything. People were either voting against not being in the EU, or against the EU. Apparently, half the country thinks the EU is worse than not-the-EU. Probably more than half the remainder would go as far as "the EU is a bit shit, but leaving would be worse." Having an actual positive opinion about the EU is very much a minority sport in the UK.

On another note, I note that Geraint Davies MP and others have tabled an EDM proposing a second referendum on the terms of a Brexit deal, with the option of remaining in the EU if the terms aren't popular. That's a nice idea that makes no sense at all from the EU's point of view.

The EU has made it clear that they won't begin negotiations until after article 50. Once article 50 has been invoked, the UK has lost its right to remain in the EU - it's on the exit train, and has left the station. It can, I suppose, remain in the EU after invoking article 50, but that would require the agreement of all the other EU members as if the UK was a new country, and there's certainly no guarantee that the UK would be able to remain on its old terms. In fact, it's likely that the EU will require something fairly big to consider re-admitting the UK in those circumstances (perhaps the Euro, which would be nicely symbolic).

Before it invokes article 50, the UK can change its mind and remain in the EU at any point, at the cost of being EU pariah with no friends and no influence for a while. But the EU's not going to negotiate with it until article 50, otherwise "threatening to leave the EU" becomes a sensible negotiating tactic for a member state wanting a better deal, and the EU has good reason not to want that...
 
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Russ:
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:

Please can we just accept we're in this mess and rather than concentrate on ways of undoing what is done, use that energy to focus on how to move forward?

When a relationship dies, you can't move forward until you've worked through the shock, denial, and anger.

Seems like this is the denial phase...

The relationship isn't actually dead. One party has, to use the popular analogy, decided that aren't in love with the other party any more. There are to be negotiations about the use of and access to the formerly shared home.

Because the relationship isn't dead, I think we are in the anger stage, but then anger got Britain into this mess in the first place.
 


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