Ship of Fools: Weather Weirding

Thread: Weather Weirding Board: Oblivion / Ship of Fools.

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Posted by Gramps49 (# 16378) on :

Several years ago, in an online discussion on climate change, I remember one participant commenting that while it would be hard to point to different climate changes, the first thing people will notice will be weather weirding.

Here in the US we are certainly seeing weird things happening. California has been very dry for nearly 10 years now. There are reports of new fires every day. Then too, there are now the reports of extensive flooding in Louisiana.

I know in my region we have noticed less snow, and longer droughts over the last few years. This summer, though, we have had a rather cool summer. Long range projections for this winter indicates it will be mild and wet.

I am wondering what weather changes have you noticed in your area. What are the long range weather projections for your region?

Posted by keibat (# 5287) on :

In the UK: warmer winters, stormier summers; a very significantly increased risk of flooding, from a) heavy rainfall overflowing on saturated ground and exceeding the capacity of rivers, drains and other watercourses; b) rising sea levels combined with storms meaning a heightened risk of coastal flooding.

Posted by Pigwidgeon (# 10192) on :

Central Arizona (Phoenix metropolitan area) has certainly gotten hotter in the summer than it was when I moved here many years ago. The evenings don't cool off. However, that is mostly because we have built up so much and have few plants, less grass, and more paved roads and buildings.

But, in addition to that (and I don't think related) the summer storms have gotten worse. We used to have evening dust storms which would swirl around for a while followed by rain, along with thunder and lightning. How we have haboobs that look like this.

Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :

I don't know if others have noticed but the weather can change very rapidly. Does it do this more often?

Here's a very recent instance with tragic consequences.

Posted by cliffdweller (# 13338) on :

The drought and fires in California aren't what is weird-- our very wet winter was the weird thing. And the seasons seem to be shifting-- we usually get rain earlier in the year than we did this year, and fire season isn't usually until Sept. or Oct, when the santa ana winds pick up.

Posted by no prophet's flag is set so... (# 15560) on :

Cdn prairies should be dry and low humidity this time of year. But it is raining every afternoon after a morning of sun. Harvest (wheat, lentils, canola, field peas mainly) should be end of Aug. Some harvest started 3 weeks early. With the low spots full of water and dead. Mosquito season is usually tailing off by end of July. It isnt this year. Or the previous half dozen.

The effect on wild life is dramatic in 3 decades. We went from 250k whitetailed deer in the province of Saskatchewan to 2 million in 30 years. Also rabbits, coyotes are appearing in cities. With so wet, moose are also being seen much further south, lots of green to eat. And killing people on highways. Hit a 2000 lb moose, you die. Finally Canada geese are destroying some large areas. They kill all the plant by eating them and the goose poop is too much nitrogen for anything to grow. Don't know the numbers but must be lots more.

Posted by Penny S (# 14768) on :

Glad to hear that all the Canada geese aren't over here. It does seem like it at times. They do awfully well for beasts with such an inefficient digestive system.

Posted by rolyn (# 16840) on :

Winters have become abnormally kind for some years now, barring the odd exception.
Some days the sun feels uncommonly hot and scolding on the skin and overly bright to the eyes. Other than that the actual weather has been unusually clement to farmers and growers where I live. That is in terms of the proportion of wet to dry. Traditionally too much rain used to be the problem near the Moor.

Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on :

My village flooded in January. It has flooded before, in 1829 and 1873 and I think sometime in the 1920s, but this was the worst in living memory. I did not think I would ever see flood water approaching my house. Fortunately for us it stopped short of our home; our street was six inches deep in water but our garden slopes just enough to mean that our house was safe. The worst affected homes were four feet deep and some families have only recently returned home. There are a lot of worried people here.

Posted by cornflower (# 13349) on :

It seems to me that the weather has been gradually getting weirder for years...of course some of that could just be natural variations. I'd be intrerested to know if the weather patterns have changed at all in Luxembourg and Belgium. We lived over their for a few years, twenty-odd years ago, and, unlike England, the weather seemed pretty consistent. From what I remember, the summers weren't that rainy and just a nice warmth, then there was a definite autumn, followed by fog in November (in Luxembourg at any rate), then in winter, snow, which started thawing about Feb/March time. It wasn't as unpredictable as Britain's always been...but even Britain is getting more unpredictable, it would seem.

Posted by Alan Cresswell (# 31) on :

The weirding of weather has several contributing factors. Actual changing of weather patterns and averages (aka climate) are certainly one of them.

But, there are also other environmental changes. Certainly in relation to floods, in the UK at least, almost everything we've done to our environment of the last 50 years or more has had the effect of reducing water retention in catchments. We've "improved" upland areas to increase agricultural output, increasing drainage to more quickly flush heavy rain from the soils, or done the same for heathland to improve conditions for grouse. And, more and more of the flood plains that should slow water further downstream have been covered in concrete, homes and businesses. This has all put much greater pressure on flood defenses further downstream, and then even what would be fairly regular weather results in higher flood levels in those lower lying locations. There are almost certainly other things that affect frequency and severity of wild fires. Urban areas create micro-climates, local conditions that are almost always hotter and more humid than they would otherwise be, so as more of us live in cities it will seem to be getting warmer.

Another factor is reporting, the TV and internet effect. Even without any change of frequency of extreme events, we see much more of it on the TV than would have been the case 50 years ago. If in a country like the UK we have locations with very high rainfall and record reaching (or exceeding) flood levels every five years it would still be the case that most flood prone areas wouldn't see extreme flooding each time - and probably have more than 50 years between such events. When flooding elsewhere in the country was a part of a page in the newspapers you wouldn't be that aware of flooding, and you would just have the local community memory of where you live. Now, every time there's a flood somewhere it's on our TVs endlessly, with pictures all over our Facebook etc. Which makes it appear to be an increasingly frequent event, the perception being greater than the actual increase in frequency.

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :

Another problem is our selective memories. When we were children winters were proper winters, summers were proper summers, and so on. My children seem to think this just as much as I did.

There has been a French expression il n'y a plus de saisons (there are no longer any seasons) for decades at least.

And yet another problem is our short lifetimes. These are hardly a representative sample, for even a couple of centuries.

I'm not a climate change denialist, but it seems to me that a lot of the attempts to link perceived changes in weather to what the scientists are on about are highly fallacious.

Posted by rolyn (# 16840) on :

I accept everything AC has said above, and that much personal testimony is antidotal.
There is though the matter of increased incidents of skin cancer which, if being caused by more intense sunshine, isn't a product of our imagination.

As a footnote, don't plants perform better with increased ultraviolet light? I have definitely noticed growth rates, and the general health of deciduous trees to have been exceptional around here of late.

Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on :

I agree with Alan. I can't compare January's flood to earlier ones, because the whole structure of the land / drainage etc here has been transformed since 1829 / 1873 / the 1920s.

It'll take a few years before people stop worrying about it happening again. We're sufficiently concerned that we've now got a flood action plan for our house and we're building up supplies so that we are prepared for a repeat.

Even though I know there have been previous floods, it's hard not to see this one as "weird weather" when people who have lived for eighty years here state that they have seen nothing like it. In terms of the area covered and number of towns, villages and Aberdeen itself, this was the worst since the "Muckle Spate" of 1829.

[ 21. August 2016, 08:26: Message edited by: North East Quine ]

Posted by Baptist Trainfan (# 15128) on :

I think a major problem is that wide random variations will always occur on a year-by-year basis, so one can never say that "this" flood or heatwave is caused by climate change. There are also short-term changes, such as the "little ice age" which hit British winters hard in around the 1850s. I also think Alan's points about the way we have changed the environment are significant.

The only real way to monitor what's going on is by looking at trends over the long term - 50, 100 or even more years. That's difficult as we simply don't have statistics that far back for many places in the world, and possibly inaccurate or anecdotal ones for others. Nevertheless I think that definite trends can be discerned.

[ 21. August 2016, 08:25: Message edited by: Baptist Trainfan ]

Posted by Penny S (# 14768) on :

Rolyn, I don't think there is an increase in insolation over our lifetimes. Here's a paper refuting the idea, with graphs. (What I call insolation, it calls solar irradiance.) Why the Sun doesn't account for recent climate changes. And that would mean no increase in UV.

On the other hand, your observation of the light scolding the skin rings a bell, from August 4th 1972, when an unexpected proton storm hit Earth, and my exposed skin, bringing up a rash as the ionosphere was disturbed. I haven't sunbathed since. I didn't notice a visible change in the light, I think, but certainly in the feel. It prickled, fiercely. I would suggest that you check out the Space Weather sites when you notice things, and also have your eyes tested - just in case, and use very good quality sunglasses that block the whole UV spectrum. And not expose the skin at risky times.

Plant response to UV is complex. It seems UV-B and plants that the defences that plants raise against UV-B also defend against pests. And defences are important, as UV can damage the genes of plants as it can ours - I haven't found anything directly positive. Though I do recall that a student at college was using UV to synthesis gibberellins (plant growth hormones) in glassware.

Plant response to increased CO2 is much better understood, and as there has been a plotted increase over recent decades, is more likely to be the agent for changes in growth than any hypothesised and unrecorded UV change.

But do slip, slop, slap Aussie advice if you feel the insolation is different, or you live under the ozone hole.

Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I'm not a climate change denialist, but it seems to me that a lot of the attempts to link perceived changes in weather to what the scientists are on about are highly fallacious.

Yes, anecdotal level accounts of such things are highly suspect. There is evidence that points to increasing occurences of extreme weather events though.

Posted by Baptist Trainfan (# 15128) on :

quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:

quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I'm not a climate change denialist, but it seems to me that a lot of the attempts to link perceived changes in weather to what the scientists are on about are highly fallacious.
Yes, anecdotal level accounts of such things are highly suspect. There is evidence that points to increasing occurences of extreme weather events though.

While I agree, I must ask: is it increasing occurences, or merely increased reporting of them?

Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:

quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
Yes, anecdotal level accounts of such things are highly suspect. There is evidence that points to increasing occurences of extreme weather events though.
While I agree, I must ask: is it increasing occurences, or merely increased reporting of them?

There is an increased occurrence of extreme weather events even after correcting for various biases, included biases in reporting.

Posted by Chorister (# 473) on :

It's still wet in Creamtealand. All the year round. This is quite normal and has always been the case. Unfortunately.

Posted by Gramps49 (# 16378) on :

Early this spring a forest fire came within just a few yards from a house we lived in in California. Two thirds of the community was completely wiped out.

Am wondering if the rain in the Deep South (US) has affected a house we used to have in Mississippi. When we lived there the houses at the end of the block would often be flooded during heavy rains, but we were a little higher and did not have to have flood insurance. I wonder what it would be like if we owned the house now.

Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Chorister:
It's still wet in Creamtealand. All the year round. This is quite normal and has always been the case. Unfortunately.

There's a causal link here:

Rain => grass => cows => milk => cream => cream teas!

Posted by jacobsen (# 14998) on :

On the other hand, correlation is not causation -much as I adore cream teas.

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