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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
New Yorker
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# 9898

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quote:
Originally posted by Living in Gin:
The one unique thing about voting in NY is the use of these huge, refrigerator-sized voting machines that were built of cast iron sometime during the Millard Filmore administration.

I feel cheated! Our machines in Midtown East have to date from before the Revolution. You Upper West Siders get all the city largesse!
Posts: 3193 | From: New York City | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
cliffdweller
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In answer to the previous question, here in Calif. the polls close at 8:00 PST. Of course, the polls in Hawaii and Alaska will close much later.

I just got back from voting-- got there right when they opened at 7 am, about 25 people in line, took me about 30 min. Not bad. The line was shorter at 7:30.

Interestingly, this morning here in LA power mysteriously went out in two polling locations-- both heavily African American. Merely a coincidence??? (my little bid for the tinfoil hat brigade).

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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The Atheist
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Sorry to spoil everyone's fun, but it's already morning of 5th November and we're toasting the new president, Barack Obama after his 378-160 victory!
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moron
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quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
So come on then mjg, fess up - after all this debating, which way did you eventually swing? [Big Grin]

Rather personal...

perhaps presumptuous.

But in the spirit of full disclosure I admit it wasn't a mainstream candidate.

(Until I got there I didn't know the Socialist Party was on my state ballot!)

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tclune
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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
(Until I got there I didn't know the Socialist Party was on my state ballot!)

Were they running Obama? [Big Grin]

--Tom Clune

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This space left blank intentionally.

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RadicalWhig
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I've held back from posting on this thread, although I've followed it with great interest. It seems that the ultimate question is not, "Will Obama win? (in a fair contest)" but "Will Obama win by enough of a margin to stop the Republicans from stealing the election?"

There must be a better way of running elections than this.

It seems that part of the problem in the USA is the heavy involvement of elected local and State officials who are themselves partisan, so that the process lacks independence. But do independent, supposedly non-partisan, electoral commissions like this or this do a better job, or are they still subject to undue influence by the parties in government (in the appointment of commissioners, for example)?

How do the French do it? The Germans? The Canadians? The Spanish? The Swedes? Is there any comparative research on the integrity of different voting mechanisms?

I'd like to do some reading on this. Any recommendations?

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Radical Whiggery for Beginners: "Trampling on the Common Prayer Book, talking against the Scriptures, commending Commonwealths, justifying the murder of King Charles I, railing against priests in general." (Sir Arthur Charlett on John Toland, 1695)

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Nicolemr
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New Yorker and Living in Gin, you may laugh all you want at our old NY voting machines, but be grateful for them. I have read that they are the most accurate, difficult to tamper with type of voting machine there is. The main drawback to them is, as you noted, their size, which means they require a huuge amount of space to store.

My daughter is almost here. Can't wait to go out and vote as a family!

(btw, just to mention, for some reason I can't get into page 102 of this thread.)

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
So come on then mjg, fess up - after all this debating, which way did you eventually swing? [Big Grin]

Rather personal...

perhaps presumptuous.

Erm, are you serious? You started a (perhaps) record-breaking thread of 5,000+ posts on the election, you've stayed actively involved all the way, and you're upset at being asked how you voted?
[Confused]
Well, apologies. Maybe it's a culture thing - no disrespect was intended.
quote:
But in the spirit of full disclosure I admit it wasn't a mainstream candidate
Ah! I knew you'd go Green in the end.
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moron
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quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
Erm, are you serious? You started a (perhaps) record-breaking thread of 5,000+ posts on the election, you've stayed actively involved all the way, and you're upset at being asked how you voted?
[Confused]

Real junkies will note Mad Geo dredged this thread up sometime in December 2007 and I abstained for six weeks beginning February 2008.

Whatever: I have gone green occasionally.

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Organ Builder
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quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemrw:
... for some reason I can't get into page 102 of this thread.)

It must say something about our interest in the subject that there are very few places on the ship where this line wouldn't be a typo.

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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson

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Foolhearty
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I voted as soon as my 8-10 class ended. No lines, no waiting; a little worrisome, as this city usually goes overwhelmingly Democratic. I hope people aren't excusing themselves from voting on the basis of the double-digit lead predicted for Obama in this state.

As to the Dixville Notch vote (also from my state), I don't trust those Northerners not to use their ballots to mess with our heads. Now I have to go see how Hart's Location voted . . .

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Fear doesn't empty tomorrow of its perils; it empties today of its power.

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Mamacita

Lakefront liberal
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I was working at the polls for the Dems this morning from 6 AM till around 11. And boy, are the Republicans in a lousy mood today. (One of them even called me "Comrade," which I found a little over the top.)

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Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world’s grief. Do justly, now. Love mercy, now. Walk humbly, now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.

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Ronist
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To which you replied "running dog imperialist lackey!" If you are going to be a comrade you might as well get the patter down.

If someone doesn't know the difference between a democrat and a communist, just pat them on the head and tell them to run along. This includes Sarah Palin.

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Zwingli
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I'm always amazed when I hear of Americans waiting half an hour, or four hours, to vote. I think the longest I've ever waited is about 5 minutes, and usually it's straight in, straight out. If voting in Australia was made voluntary, and you had to wait half an hour to vote, we'd have a turnout well below 5%.
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Scot

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quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
Well, apologies. Maybe it's a culture thing - no disrespect was intended.

I learned recently that this is, indeed, an odd transatlantic cultural difference. Among many in the US, it is considered rude to ask someone how they voted. I understand that in Europe that is a standard piece of social small talk. On the other hand, a common opener in the US is to ask someone what they do for a living. I read that question is considered quite inappropriate in France.

Personally, I wish more people would ask me how I voted. That would give me more opportunities to tell them how they should vote, and why. [Big Grin] For the record, I'm planning on voting third-party, since the outcome here in California isn't even remotely in question. All of my really strong opinions this time around are about our even dozen propositions. Let me know if you need to know which ones you should vote for!

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“Here, we are not afraid to follow truth wherever it may lead, nor tolerate any error so long as reason is left free to combat it.” - Thomas Jefferson

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Presleyterian
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In my neighborhood, there were no binding propositions were on the ballot. Congress won't let us have them.

No Senate or House races. We don't have representation.

Our electoral outcome is a foregone conclusion. Citizens have had the vote only since 1964 and have always gone for the same party.

There's intermittent rain.

And yet people were genially -- even jovially -- waiting in line for two hours to cast their ballots. Eighteen-year-olds. Ninety-year-olds from the nearby nursing home. New citizens voting for the first time. A lady on oxygen who refused the offer to jump to the head of the line. It was right out of a freakin' Frank Capra movie.

I passed the time singing a little Phil Ochs song under my breath.

[ 04. November 2008, 16:54: Message edited by: Presleyterian ]

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ken
Ship's Roundhead
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quote:
Originally posted by Rev per Minute:
In the UK the usual thing is to wait until the votes are counted (all the votes, Florida!) before a constituency is declared,

Before its declared, yes. But there will be guesses from the time polling closes. There are exit polls taken by journalists, and the parties keep their own figures - what we call "number snatching" (the hours I have spent outside polling stations or running up and down to the local committee rooms with pads of paper - I first did that in the 1964 general election...) And rumours come out from the count - the candidates and their agents are allowed to be present at the count, and usually to bring another representative with them (husbands and wives typically) so they often get a good early idea how its going. Its good fun, especially when there are disputed ballots [Smile]

quote:
Originally posted by Living in Gin:
Also, ballots in urban areas typically take longer to count simply because there's more people, so expect the cities to lag behind the rest of the states in reporting the results. Given that much Obama's support comes from urban areas, these late results could potentially make or break the statewide vote.

Oddly, its the other way round here. Urban areas declare first, simply because the paper votes get to the count quicker. There are always a few towns that compete to be first - the ballot boxes are picked up by police car and they sometimes drive very fast. So Labour often seems to be doing better than it really is at about midnigth or 1am, and the Tories catch up by 2am or 3. Except in 1997 of course. In rural areas the distances are longer and there may not be that many police cars anyway do it can be a few hours before the count starts. Some Scottish constituences traditionly didn't start counting till the next day. As do Northern Irish ones, but there the reason was different - it was thought unsafe to do it in the dark. I hope the days of polling places guarded by police armed with machine guns are over, but that's how it was there until very recently. "Vote early, vote often!" wasn't always a joke.

I can't help it, I'm a hack. So, prediction. Obama to win, but by a smaller majority than expected by opinion polls or most online pundits. My guess is 298-306 Electoral College votes for Obama. There, I said it. I exposed my psephological whatsit. Now chop it off.

(In detail - Obama wins Pennsylvania, but he might lose Ohio. Though if he does lose in Ohio it will be at least partly due to deliberate electoral fraud perpetrated by corrupt officials on voters in low-income urban areas - send in the UN observers! Florida too close to call again (polls suggest Obama - I wish, but I hardly hope, they are right) Obama will however win Virginia and may well win North Carolina - which will make up for Ohio and maybe Florida and give him the electoral college. McCain will pick up at least one, probably two, possibly three states we don't expect. If they small states in the north my conjecture of two pages ago might be true. Obama will pick up at least one state no-one rationally expects him to win. It is likely to be in the old south or in the mountain region. & I mean in addition to Colorado and Nevada where he is now the front runner. In fact there have been so many advance or absentee votes cast in Colorado that some people are saying he has already won the state, which is why the Republicans abandoned the campaign there)

Things can change quickly. People sometimes forget how close most US elections are. Nationally of course, but also in many states. Quite small swings can produce big changes.

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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Imaginary Friend

Real to you
# 186

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quote:
Originally posted by Scot:
I learned recently that this is, indeed, an odd transatlantic cultural difference. Among many in the US, it is considered rude to ask someone how they voted. I understand that in Europe that is a standard piece of social small talk.

I wouldn't go that far when describing my experience growing up in Britain. It's commonly understood that religion and politics (including party preferences) are not polite dinner conversation, but it's certainly normal for friends to talk about how they vote.

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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

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kentishmaid
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quote:
Originally posted by davelarge:
quote:
Originally posted by Scot:
I learned recently that this is, indeed, an odd transatlantic cultural difference. Among many in the US, it is considered rude to ask someone how they voted. I understand that in Europe that is a standard piece of social small talk.

I wouldn't go that far when describing my experience growing up in Britain. It's commonly understood that religion and politics (including party preferences) are not polite dinner conversation, but it's certainly normal for friends to talk about how they vote.
It may also be a generational thing, though. Neither of my parents knew exactly how the other voted and they both refused to tell us when we asked, since it is a secret ballot. (The fact that we could quite reasonably guess from the sorts of political statements they made is beside the point.)

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"Who'll be the lady, who'll be the lord, when we are ruled by the love of one another?"

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FreeJack
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Don't we need to close this thread now (at 103 pages!) Isn't it time for a results thread? Or do we have to wait for the Supreme Court in January for that? And then the will Obama be assassinated or McCain have a coronary first thread?
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
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quote:
Originally posted by kentishmaid:
Neither of my parents knew exactly how the other voted and they both refused to tell us when we asked, since it is a secret ballot.

I kind of guessed how my parents voted from the way they kept on going to Party meetings.

Though my Dad had a sort of superstition that you should never vote for yourself, so when he stood for the council for a ward we lived in he voted for the other guy. In fact I think there was one time the two candidates went to the polling station together and agreed to vote for each other. Or so they said...

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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Hiro's Leap

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How you vote isn't small talk where I'm from, but it'd be entirely acceptable to be asked at the end of a very long (and generally friendly) conversation about an election. The other person might not answer, but would be highly unlikely to take offence.
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Sober Preacher's Kid

Presbymethegationalist
# 12699

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quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
I've held back from posting on this thread, although I've followed it with great interest. It seems that the ultimate question is not, "Will Obama win? (in a fair contest)" but "Will Obama win by enough of a margin to stop the Republicans from stealing the election?"

There must be a better way of running elections than this.

It seems that part of the problem in the USA is the heavy involvement of elected local and State officials who are themselves partisan, so that the process lacks independence. But do independent, supposedly non-partisan, electoral commissions like this or this do a better job, or are they still subject to undue influence by the parties in government (in the appointment of commissioners, for example)?

How do the French do it? The Germans? The Canadians? The Spanish? The Swedes? Is there any comparative research on the integrity of different voting mechanisms?

I'd like to do some reading on this. Any recommendations?

Check out the Elections Canada website

Unlike the US, Canadian elections are under the jurisdiction of the government being elected. Thus the federal government runs its own elections.

A poll consists of 300-400 voters. There is one polling station per poll. A poll is staffed by a Deputy Returning Officer and a Poll Clerk. I was a Poll Clerk during the last Canadian federal election on October 14. Everything is done by paper. The same standards apply across the country.

Since Canada spans 5 and a half time zones (Newfoundland is 30 minutes ahead of Atlantic Time), polling hours are staged so that the Maritimes close one hour ahead of the Eastern, Central, and Mountain time zones, which vote using the same hours. The Pacific Time zone closes one hour behind Eastern. This is because BC residents felt that the election was already decided before their votes were counted when we voted in hour increments by time zone.

There are so many audit checks in place that a poll clerk should know what exactly has happened to a ballot within 30 minutes of something going wrong. There are many checks, counterchecks and running balances so that everything can be ordered properly.

The ballots are counted after the polls close by the DRO and Poll Clerk. We fill out a balance form and sign off on the results. This is a preliminary count, but it's reliable. These results are then phoned in to the Riding Office, and then forwarded to the TV networks. That's how they get their results, and everything winds up by midnight.

Most polls are grouped in a Central Polling Station, with around five polls per station, with a supervisor and registration clerks. The candidates appoint Scrutineers to oversee each poll. They have the right to examine the voters list, and they do this to keep their own running tally of who has voted. They can also challenge a voters right to vote. This means the voter has to take an oath as to their qualification to vote (ID checks make this mostly unnecessary, and it didn't happen at my poll).

During the day the Scrutineers' main focus is mustering the vote of their supporters. If a person inadvertently goes to the wrong station, they can often be counted on to arrange a ride. This is really helpful for confused, elderly voters who don't drive.

The DRO has the right and responsibility to disqualify any Scrutineer who is systematically challenging voters. They have to right to oversee the process, but not to interfere with the vote. The DRO is responsible for everything, and that is very clear to everyone.

The official, legal count is done once the ballot boxes are returned to the Elections Canada Riding Office. The Poll Supervisor for a Central Poll, or the DRO does this. I accompanied the POll Supervisor and our ballot boxes to the Riding Office as ballot boxes must never be left alone, and two people should always be with them. The Electoral Officer for the riding does another count (essentially auditing the DRO's results), and this is the legal result. A judicial recount may be ordered if the top two candidates are separated by less then 100 votes.

Overall its a very civil process. We're all in one room for 14 hours, and we're friendly. The Scrutineers are usually genial. They have their limits, but everyone gets along and we're all polite and friendly.

Hope that helps. [Smile]

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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.

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Pigwidgeon

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# 10192

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quote:
Originally posted by Zwingli:
I'm always amazed when I hear of Americans waiting half an hour, or four hours, to vote. I think the longest I've ever waited is about 5 minutes, and usually it's straight in, straight out. If voting in Australia was made voluntary, and you had to wait half an hour to vote, we'd have a turnout well below 5%.

Friends of mine waited nine hours last Friday, the last day of Early Voting.

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
# 2832

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Some thoughts:

I'm watching FOX just to see 'em squirm.

Scrutineer would be a good message board nic.

I'm green with New Yorker envy over those big bully levers you get to pull. We have to fill in a prissy oval, reminiscent of SAT tests, fraught with anxiety over whether it counts if we don't stay inside the lines.

Waiting for the fam to get home so we can all vote together.

If Obama loses by one it will all be Scot's fault.
[Biased]

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agrgurich
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# 5724

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
The cult of Kennedy worship among journalists pretty much started after his assassination if my memory is at all accurate.

--Tom Clune

Your memory is not at all accurate. Kennedy was enormously popular throughout his presidency with most Americans, journalists included. Using Gallup poll data (the only polling data set going back that far), Kennedy still has the highest term-length net approval rating (percent approve minus percent disapprove) of any U.S. President in the Gallup data set. Here's a list of U.S. Presidents, ranked by popularity while in office (according to Gallup).

1) Kennedy +54.0
2) Eisenhower +44.0
3) G. H. W. Bush +31.1
4) Johnson +24.4
5) Clinton +17.2
6) Reagan +15.8
7) Nixon +14.6
8) Ford +9.7
9) Carter +6.2
10) Truman +4.95
11) G. W. Bush +4.86

Bush Jr.'s net approval ratings only go as far as the most recent Gallup poll (10/10-12/08), obviously, but it would take a pretty hefty post-election "nostalgia bump" to move him past Truman at this point.

Thank you for confirming what I recall very well.

JFK was very popular & much of his press coverage
was gushing. I still recall a story that claimed JFK read 2000 words a minute (or some such number).

Enjoy the election coverage. I'm not watching any of it. I'll read the bad news tomorrow.

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Life is a comedy to those who think & a tragedy to those who feel.-Horace Walpole

AJG

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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460

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Oh and one bit of psephoplogical trivia that I hope won't be important.

There are circumstances in which Electoral College votes from a state can split. But it rarely happens because the EC delegation is chosen by the party that won the populat vote in the state. BUT Maine and Nebraska allow split delegations.

Maine delegations are unlikely to split. But in Nebraska it goes by district, and one district - the one with Omaha in it - is much more urban and liberal than the rest of the state so in effect Omaha is its own little state for the purposes of the Presidential election. Apparently Obama has been campaining hard in Omaha.

(Even less relevantly, as well as the States, DC gets 3 EC votes. They always vote Democrat - being wealthier, blacker and better educated than average and all three of those demographics tend towards Democrat)

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
# 95

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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
Don't we need to close this thread now (at 103 pages!) Isn't it time for a results thread? Or do we have to wait for the Supreme Court in January for that? And then the will Obama be assassinated or McCain have a coronary first thread?

No, "we" don't, but nobody's stopping you from starting any of those threads. [Biased]

But the first polls won't close till 6 pm Eastern (3 hours from when I type) and then have various closing times till the bulk of them are done at 11 pm Eastern with California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. Alaska closes most of its polls at midnight Eastern and the western Aleautians at 1 am.

I'm not listening to results (la la la la la) until the polls close in my state.

Charlotte

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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

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comet

Snowball in Hell
# 10353

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quote:
Originally posted by Amazing Grace:
and the western Aleutians at 1 am.

... there's a major chunk of voters. yep yep.

*nods*

combining the populations of Adak, Attu, and Atka, I'm guessing maybe 100 registered voters. assuming 100% turn out.

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Evil Dragon Lady, Breaker of Men's Constitutions

"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning.” -Calvin

Posts: 17024 | From: halfway between Seduction and Peril | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
Josephine

Orthodox Belle
# 3899

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quote:
Originally posted by ken:
Those exit polls will almost certainly tell us who wins unless the race is very close.

The poll geeks at fivethirtyeight.com say you should ignore exit polls.

Easier said than done, of course. But don't open the champagne until you've got something more reliable.

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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!

Posts: 10273 | From: Pacific Northwest, USA | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
# 95

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quote:
Originally posted by comet:
quote:
Originally posted by Amazing Grace:
and the western Aleutians at 1 am.

... there's a major chunk of voters. yep yep.

*nods*

combining the populations of Adak, Attu, and Atka, I'm guessing maybe 100 registered voters. assuming 100% turn out.

[Biased]

Yeah, we're not talking Jimmy Carter in 1980 here but I wanted to make sure that I covered the bases. Anyway, I am watching your races.

(eta: thanks for fixing my typing error)

Charlotte

[ 04. November 2008, 19:27: Message edited by: Amazing Grace ]

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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

Posts: 6593 | From: Sittin' by the dock of the [SF] bay | Registered: Jul 2003  |  IP: Logged
Presleyterian
Shipmate
# 1915

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quote:
Ken wrote:(Even less relevantly, as well as the States, DC gets 3 EC votes. They always vote Democrat - being wealthier, blacker and better educated than average and all three of those demographics tend towards Democrat)
Far be it from me to engage in a statistical throw down with Ken, but I believe averages can be very deceiving in the District of Columbia. The District is about 75% African-American and 25% Caucasian, which makes it and the state of Hawaii the only "majority minority" independent voting jurisdictions in the United States. But by no means is it wealthier and better educated. Yes, the Caucasian population in the District is well-educated and well-off. But once you factor them out of the average, my guess is the District may well have one of the lowest education levels and highest poverty rates in the country. The difference between the haves and the have-nots is shocking.
Posts: 2450 | From: US | Registered: Dec 2001  |  IP: Logged
The5thMary
Shipmate
# 12953

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
quote:
Originally posted by Zwingli:
I'm always amazed when I hear of Americans waiting half an hour, or four hours, to vote. I think the longest I've ever waited is about 5 minutes, and usually it's straight in, straight out. If voting in Australia was made voluntary, and you had to wait half an hour to vote, we'd have a turnout well below 5%.

Friends of mine waited nine hours last Friday, the last day of Early Voting.
I voted today and waited all of three minutes to get to a voting machine. There were two people ahead of me and at least eight voting machines open. I just had some weird thing with my name that they had to straighten out. I couldn't believe there were so few people at my polling place. Apparently, there had been 800 folks earlier today... thank God I waited! I didn't have to use my "I'm a diabetic/have scoliosis/arthritis and can't stand for long periods of time" line. I was so ready to use it too! Anyway, I'm glad it's over and just want to know if my candidate won.

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God gave me my face but She let me pick my nose.

Posts: 3451 | From: Tacoma, WA USA | Registered: Aug 2007  |  IP: Logged
pete173
Shipmate
# 4622

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Well, we're all staying up here, with the champagne in the fridge. Obama by 3.00 am GMT, I hope... There will be a certain amount of dancing in the London streets.

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Pete

Posts: 1653 | From: Kilburn, London NW6 | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
comet

Snowball in Hell
# 10353

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there's a tentatively scheduled "take back the country" party tomorrow, here. we have a "take back the town" party every fall after the last tourist train leaves.

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Evil Dragon Lady, Breaker of Men's Constitutions

"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning.” -Calvin

Posts: 17024 | From: halfway between Seduction and Peril | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28

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Well, my daughter arrived from college and th three of us went down and voted (and then had some family time before she had to go back, but that's besides the point.)In this section of Queens I think most people are a bit more conservative than the city as a whole (my daughter once called it "the little red dot in the big blue city) but from what I've been picking up from people I know who normally vote Republican I think this year may be different.

Anyway, there was certainly a bigger voter turnout than usual, for the first time that I've voted here there was actually a line. There were a good number of obvious first time voters, and not just ones who had just turned 18 like my daughter, but older as well. Some I'm pretty sure were new citizens.

No snags, no problems. Civic duty done, and...

*sniffle* My baby voted for the first time! *bursts with pride*

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
RadicalWhig
Shipmate
# 13190

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Sober Preacher's Kid - Thank you for the information. Once again, it seems, "Canadians do it better".

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Radical Whiggery for Beginners: "Trampling on the Common Prayer Book, talking against the Scriptures, commending Commonwealths, justifying the murder of King Charles I, railing against priests in general." (Sir Arthur Charlett on John Toland, 1695)

Posts: 3193 | From: Scotland | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
Orb

Eye eye Cap'n!
# 3256

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quote:
Originally posted by ken:
Though my Dad had a sort of superstition that you should never vote for yourself, so when he stood for the council for a ward we lived in he voted for the other guy. In fact I think there was one time the two candidates went to the polling station together and agreed to vote for each other. Or so they said...

If you've seen the near-perfect Alexander Payne film Election, you will know that this kind of philosophy can potentially have disastrous results...

quote:
Originally posted by Scot:
For the record, I'm planning on voting third-party, since the outcome here in California isn't even remotely in question.

Taking a leaf out of Kant's book for a moment...what if EVERYONE thinks that?

And don't reply "they won't". I know they won't, but humour me!

At election time, I'd like to move to Missouri or one of the other "bellwether" states. It's horrible to feel like your vote doesn't count - it's a lot of the reason why people don't vote in the first place.

I'm going to suggest that Obama will take these Bush 04 states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. I also think he has a fighting chance in Missouri, and that its bellwether status is going to happen again, so I'll go for that one too.

Obama 364. McCain 174.

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“You cannot buy the revolution. You cannot make the revolution. You can only be the revolution. It is in your spirit, or it is nowhere.” Ursula K. Le Guin, The Dispossessed

Posts: 5032 | From: Easton, Bristol | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
LeRoc

Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216

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I don't have cable tv here in Brazil, so to be able to watch live coverage I rented a room here. Oh, the sacrifices that I make...

BTW, Brazil's number of voters is roughly in the same order of that of the US, which a much more difficult logistical and economical situation. There was an election here in the last month. No voting machine or ballot problems, no ballots lost, no overly long lines and all the results were in at 6pm. It makes you think: what is going on in the US?

My prediction: Obama 311. I'll be here in the hotel watching live coverage, together with my girlfriend who is Afro-Brazilian. At every state that Obama wins, I'll receive a kiss [Biased]

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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There were five people in line at my polling station at 6 am, an hour before the polls opened, and by 7 am the wait at all the polling places where I had No on Prop 8 people to look after was an hour. By a little after 2 pm, when I voted, there was no wait at all. There will probably be a post-work flurry, though; the next shift of propagandizing voters starts at 4:30 pm.

We've had one volunteer threatened with bodily harm by a precinct worker, and apparently the LA County Sheriffs are threatening to arrest No on 8 volunteers in one area if they set foot on church premises that are polling places, despite the fact that the law says we only have to be 100 feet away from the door to the room where the voting booths are. Fuckers. [Mad]

Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
TonyK

Host Emeritus
# 35

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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
Don't we need to close this thread now (at 103 pages!) Isn't it time for a results thread? Or do we have to wait for the Supreme Court in January for that? And then the will Obama be assassinated or McCain have a coronary first thread?

Well, just in case the thread does die, and while we all wait impatiently for the result, can I express my gratitude to all our trans-Atlantic cousins who have taken time and effort to explain some of the more obscure nuances of the USA voting system, and the implications of some of the activities.

I have followed the thread with great interest from the beginning...

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Yours aye ... TonyK

Posts: 2717 | From: Gloucestershire | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Scot

Deck hand
# 2095

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If you get arrested for legal political speech, I'll bail you out.

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“Here, we are not afraid to follow truth wherever it may lead, nor tolerate any error so long as reason is left free to combat it.” - Thomas Jefferson

Posts: 9515 | From: Southern California | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Rat
Ship's Rat
# 3373

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Alas, I'm going to have to go to bed. 2 states declared (according to BBC coverage, seems very early) but I can't keep my eyes open a moment longer.

Enjoy, all who are staying up or in a more congenial timezone.

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It's a matter of food and available blood. If motherhood is sacred, put your money where your mouth is. Only then can you expect the coming down to the wrecked & shimmering earth of that miracle you sing about. [Margaret Atwood]

Posts: 5285 | From: A dour region for dour folk | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
tclune
Shipmate
# 7959

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Back when Clinton was first elected POTUS, and before he took office, Dave Barry did a running bit about "Clinton's failed Presidency." In that spirit, and anxious to avoid being pre-empted by Fox News, allow me to be the first to declare Obama's Presidency a failure...

--Tom Clune

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This space left blank intentionally.

Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460

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quote:
Originally posted by Presleyterian:
quote:
Ken wrote:(Even less relevantly, as well as the States, DC gets 3 EC votes. They always vote Democrat - being wealthier, blacker and better educated than average and all three of those demographics tend towards Democrat)
Far be it from me to engage in a statistical throw down with Ken, but I believe averages can be very deceiving in the District of Columbia. The District is about 75% African-American and 25% Caucasian, which makes it and the state of Hawaii the only "majority minority" independent voting jurisdictions in the United States. But by no means is it wealthier and better educated. Yes, the Caucasian population in the District is well-educated and well-off. But once you factor them out of the average, my guess is the District may well have one of the lowest education levels and highest poverty rates in the country. The difference between the haves and the have-nots is shocking.
Total agreement. The district is wealthier, blacker and better educated than the US average - but the wealthy, the black, and the educated are not neccessarily the same people.

--------------------
Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
# 95

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quote:
Originally posted by Scot:
If you get arrested for legal political speech, I'll bail you out.

Right behind you, Scot!

Charlotte

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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

Posts: 6593 | From: Sittin' by the dock of the [SF] bay | Registered: Jul 2003  |  IP: Logged
Dee.
Ship's Theological Acrobat
# 5681

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Well Whadaya know,

Its US election day and I have a nasty head cold so I am tucked up on the couch with my Orange Juice and Tissues watching the TV New Zealand special on the US election.

I too have lurked on this thread, thanks all for the commentary

OOOh I love a good election. Ours is 3 days away but is nowhere near as interesting as yours.

Go Obama

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Jesus - nice bloke, bit religious

Posts: 2679 | From: Under Downunder | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Josephine

Orthodox Belle
# 3899

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The young woman who was Littlest One's nanny for a year is soon to be married. There's a bridal shower for her tonight, that I must attend.

Of all nights! I'd really, truly rather be home watching the election results come in than attend the party.

<sigh>

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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!

Posts: 10273 | From: Pacific Northwest, USA | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
The Bede's American Successor

Curmudgeon-in-Training
# 5042

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quote:
Originally posted by comet:
there's a tentatively scheduled "take back the country" party tomorrow, here. we have a "take back the town" party every fall after the last tourist train leaves.

But. But. But.

You get her back tomorrow.

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This was the iniquity of your sister Sodom: she and her daughters had pride of wealth and food in plenty, comfort and ease, and yet she never helped the poor and the wretched.

—Ezekiel 16.49

Posts: 6079 | From: The banks of Possession Sound | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
The Bede's American Successor

Curmudgeon-in-Training
# 5042

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quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
Sober Preacher's Kid - Thank you for the information. Once again, it seems, "Canadians do it better".

You spent how much money for what type of results this last time?

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This was the iniquity of your sister Sodom: she and her daughters had pride of wealth and food in plenty, comfort and ease, and yet she never helped the poor and the wretched.

—Ezekiel 16.49

Posts: 6079 | From: The banks of Possession Sound | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged



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