Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
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agrgurich
Shipmate
# 5724
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Posted
I"ll make my prediction now.
The ticket of McCain/Thompson will beat Clinton/Obama. It will be a close election though.
-------------------- Life is a comedy to those who think & a tragedy to those who feel.-Horace Walpole
AJG
Posts: 4478 | From: Michigan's Copper Country | Registered: Apr 2004
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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Mad Geo: quote: Originally posted by Mary the M: quote: Originally posted by Mad Geo: so did Reagan and he was the best president in the last 40 years.
One word - Reaganomics.
Two words: Soviet Union.
Another two words: Berlin Wall.
More seriously, Look at this. Reagonomics looks like a recovery plan from all four presidents before him!
He doesn't look as good as Clinton does, but then Clinton was benefitting from the Cold War being removed under Reagan's watch....I believe they called it "The Peace Dividend" at the time....
it has to be the silliest myth in history that Reagan somehow "won" the Cold War.
The Pope and Gorbachev and the internal contradictions of the Soviet Union (pace Marx) played overwhelmingly the greatest role in ending the Soviet system. [ 22. January 2008, 01:08: Message edited by: SeraphimSarov ]
-------------------- "For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"
Posts: 2247 | From: Sacramento, California | Registered: Apr 2003
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Lietuvos Sv. Kazimieras: Reagan would have made a nice ceremonial president in a parliamentary system.
Earlier in the thread, someone remarked that "most countries" have 2 leaders--one ceremonial, one working.
Is that true? I've never heard that before. That seems to be a common way for parliamentary systems, but do they all work that way? Do most countries have parliaments? I thought that types of government varied greatly around the world.
Thanks!
-------------------- Blessed Gator, pray for us! --"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon") --"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Mad Geo
 Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by SeraphimSarov: it has to be the silliest myth in history that Reagan somehow "won" the Cold War.
The Pope and Gorbachev and the internal contradictions of the Soviet Union (pace Marx) played overwhelmingly the greatest role in ending the Soviet system.
And like many myths, there's enough truth in it to be relevant in some cases. Reagan wasn't the only role, granted. But he was a major one. Gorbachev et al were responding to many things that Reagan did (and did not do). Including huge amounts of money on military spending that they couldn't begin to keep up with.
Also, it has to be one of the silliest revisionist tendencies in history to think that he and his actions didn't matter.
Anyway, we digress. I knew I'd cause a stir with that. ![[Biased]](wink.gif) [ 22. January 2008, 01:51: Message edited by: Mad Geo ]
-------------------- Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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RuthW
 liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
On the factors of race and gender: a friend made what I thought was an interesting observation the other day -- he said that in the year when we have our first viable female candidate and our first viable black candidate, he feels the white guy has to be pretty special to deserve his vote, and Edwards is just not that special.
However, if I were going just on what they say, their positions, I'd go for Edwards. And if his campaign survives South Carolina, I may vote for him simply because he seems like he's most likely to do something for poor people.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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New Yorker
Shipmate
# 9898
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Golden Key: quote: Originally posted by New Yorker: Maybe we'll have a hung convention and convince Cheney to run. That would be fun!
That would make baby Jesus cry.
Well, he's "no longer a baby, no longer a child." So I doubt he'd be crying, but - perhaps reluctantly I give you - casting his vote.
Posts: 3193 | From: New York City | Registered: Jul 2005
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Mamacita
 Lakefront liberal
# 3659
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Posted
Newt was on TV tonight flogging his latest book. What role is Gingrich going to have in this -- especially if the GOP goes into the convention without a clear front runner?
-------------------- Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world’s grief. Do justly, now. Love mercy, now. Walk humbly, now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.
Posts: 20761 | From: where the purple line ends | Registered: Dec 2002
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Anglican_Brat
Shipmate
# 12349
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Posted
I will definitely give the edge to the Democrat no matter who the GOP picks. It is awful to be the party in power when you have a failing economy, an unpopular war, and scandal after scandal.
But if the GOP picks McCain, the presidential election will be more competitive than not. I'm betting that Obama will be the Dem nominee, and McCain will be the GOP nominee.
-------------------- It's Reformation Day! Do your part to promote Christian unity and brotherly love and hug a schismatic.
Posts: 4332 | From: Vancouver | Registered: Feb 2007
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Re Gingrich:
I think he likes the power of being a spoiler. Remember when he set up the government to get shut down?
There were rumors that he was going to run for president, but he seems to have nixed that. If the Republicans have any sense at all, they'll send him on a nice, long, *quiet* vacation in Bermuda...say, the Triangle.
(No, I don't like him.)
-------------------- Blessed Gator, pray for us! --"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon") --"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by RuthW: he feels the white guy has to be pretty special to deserve his vote, and Edwards is just not that special.
It's funny he'd say that.
In the interest of abusing all candidates equally: do you reckon Edwards knows who, with no negotiation or inspection, paid the full asking price of 1.6 million for his 'slummy' neighbor's property with a tax value of $570,623 and a gross cash flow of $4200 monthly? Whoever it was had about a million bucks to burn.
And there seems to be some element of deception in this very curious real estate transaction (it's unclear if it's the buyer or seller) but one thing's nearly certain: that 'rabid, rabid Republican' found hisself someone ignorant enough to pay him a HELLUVA lot more than the property is worth...
quote: Griffin, who ultimately bought the property, told Johnson he was paying for the land with family money, but records show that Griffin signed two separate deeds of trust, or mortgages, totaling $1.1 million to Richard I. Levin of Chapel Hill, a retired UNC business professor. Public records indicate that Griffin has none of his own funds involved in the purchase.
On Friday, Levin acknowledged making loans of more than $1 million to Griffin for the purchase of the Johnson property. He said he has no idea what Griffin plans to do with the property, and has no information that he is buying the land for someone else.
He said his loan was secured by the value of the land, but would not say whether he’d had the land appraised. “I am a lender, that is what I do to make money," he said.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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Living in Gin
 Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572
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Posted
I don't know if this has been discussed already, but how do people feel about Mike Bloomberg making a run as an independent? I personally love the guy and I think he's done a lot for NYC, but I fear that he'd only be a spoiler in the general election a la Ross Perot or Ralph Nader.
My general election dream ticket would be Obama/Bloomberg. Obama would be the charismatic statesman who can inspire the masses, and Bloomberg would be the hard-nosed pragmatist who gets stuff done.
I suspect that has about a snowball's chance in hell of actually happening, though, but I'd be delighted if somebody proved me wrong.
-------------------- It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.
Posts: 1893 | From: Cincinnati, USA | Registered: Apr 2002
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Living in Gin: I don't know if this has been discussed already, but how do people feel about Mike Bloomberg making a run as an independent?
At the least he seems to have a good shot at transforming the way third parties influence our elections and that IMO is a very good thing. What no one seems to have a feel for is if he'd take more votes from the dems or the repubs, although the more I think about it his 'pro-business' stance might make him more favored by repubs.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by RuthW: However, if I were going just on what they say, their positions, I'd go for Edwards. And if his campaign survives South Carolina, I may vote for him simply because he seems like he's most likely to do something for poor people.
Edwards certainly came off the best in the SC debate last night. I thought the debate was classic Clintonia -- who but the Clintons could turn the fact that they are widely seen as liars and cheats into a political advantage? Since her negatives can't possibly get any higher, drag Obama into the mud with her, and he'll fall closer to her level. A clear win for the sleeze! Amazing...
--Tom Clune
-------------------- This space left blank intentionally.
Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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Living in Gin
 Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572
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Posted
206: What I like most about Bloomberg is that he demonstrates that being pro-business isn't incompatible with being a progressive. While he's maintained a very favorable business climate in NYC, he has also made great strides in public healthcare, education, infrastructure, and environmental needs.
He's also managed to mostly stay above the whole partisan fray... I guess one of the advantages of being a self-made billionaire is that he can't be bought off very easily. [ 22. January 2008, 17:12: Message edited by: Living in Gin ]
-------------------- It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.
Posts: 1893 | From: Cincinnati, USA | Registered: Apr 2002
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Littlelady
Shipmate
# 9616
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Golden Key: quote: Originally posted by Lietuvos Sv. Kazimieras: Reagan would have made a nice ceremonial president in a parliamentary system.
Earlier in the thread, someone remarked that "most countries" have 2 leaders--one ceremonial, one working.
Is that true? I've never heard that before. That seems to be a common way for parliamentary systems, but do they all work that way? Do most countries have parliaments? I thought that types of government varied greatly around the world.
I thought this article from Wiki was interesting. It seems to offer some useful general information about the parliamentary system (see 'List of Parliaments' for a more discussion on what you were thinking about).
-------------------- 'When ideas fail, words come in very handy' ~ Goethe
Posts: 3737 | From: home of the best Rugby League team in the universe | Registered: Jun 2005
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Comper's Child
Shipmate
# 10580
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by agrgurich: I"ll make my prediction now.
The ticket of McCain/Thompson will beat Clinton/Obama. It will be a close election though.
Thompson just pulled out...
Posts: 2509 | From: Penn's Greene Countrie Towne | Registered: Oct 2005
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Living in Gin: He's also managed to mostly stay above the whole partisan fray... I guess one of the advantages of being a self-made billionaire is that he can't be bought off very easily.
I can't help but think he couldn't be any worse than the inbred pandering politicos leading both parties... ANYTHING to break the stranglehold they have on our system...
so here you go: http://draftmichaelbloomberg.com/
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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Mere Nick
Shipmate
# 11827
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Posted
Hey, the dude likes sardines. He could be a kindred spirit.
-------------------- "Well that's it, boys. I've been redeemed. The preacher's done warshed away all my sins and transgressions. It's the straight and narrow from here on out, and heaven everlasting's my reward." Delmar O'Donnell
Posts: 2797 | From: West Carolina | Registered: Sep 2006
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Grits
Compassionate fundamentalist
# 4169
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Posted
Did anyone see this quote from Edwards regarding the Hillary/Obama smackdown: quote: Between all the allegations for Hillary serving on the Wal-Mart board, and Sen. Obama working for a slumlord, I was proud to represent the grown-up wing of the Democratic Party last night.
Pretty funny.
-------------------- Lord, fill my mouth with worthwhile stuff, and shut it when I've said enough. Amen.
Posts: 8419 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Feb 2003
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agrgurich
Shipmate
# 5724
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Comper's Child: quote: Originally posted by agrgurich: I"ll make my prediction now.
The ticket of McCain/Thompson will beat Clinton/Obama. It will be a close election though.
Thompson just pulled out...
I expected Thompson to pull out of the presidential race. He could still be the Vice-Presidential candidate as I expect him to be.
-------------------- Life is a comedy to those who think & a tragedy to those who feel.-Horace Walpole
AJG
Posts: 4478 | From: Michigan's Copper Country | Registered: Apr 2004
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
Sharpton on Bloomberg
quote: The Reverend Al Sharpton, who has not endorsed a candidate for president, is heaping praise on Mayor Bloomberg and, in turn, criticizing the legacy of Mayor Giuliani.
Mr. Bloomberg changed the "tone of ugliness" in the city, Rev. Sharpton said, so that even when there is disagreement, those on conflicting sides still speak to each other.
"It is important that even when we disagree that we not have a climate of disagreeability," Rev. Sharpton said yesterday at an annual rally held in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. at the headquarters of Rev. Sharpton's National Action Network in Harlem.
"Michael Bloomberg has torn down the curtain of polarized dialogue in the city and he has done it in an effective way," he said.
Wowser. Maybe Mike could win this thing.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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Mere Nick
Shipmate
# 11827
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Posted
One of the things Bloomberg would have going for him is that most folks don't know who he is.
-------------------- "Well that's it, boys. I've been redeemed. The preacher's done warshed away all my sins and transgressions. It's the straight and narrow from here on out, and heaven everlasting's my reward." Delmar O'Donnell
Posts: 2797 | From: West Carolina | Registered: Sep 2006
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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Mere Nick: One of the things Bloomberg would have going for him is that most folks don't know who he is.
The press would dig it out though ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
-------------------- "For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"
Posts: 2247 | From: Sacramento, California | Registered: Apr 2003
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by 206: Wowser. Maybe Mike could win this thing.
I wonder how many white Republican voters would look on an endorsement by Al Sharpton as a good reason for voting for a candidate?
-------------------- Ken
L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.
Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by ken: I wonder how many white Republican voters would look on an endorsement by Al Sharpton as a good reason for voting for a candidate?
Probably about the same number as those who consider Sharpton qualified to objectively critique 'polarized dialogue'.
But I think the point is Sharpton's endorsement could influence quite a few voters who would otherwise be hardline democrats; IMO he's considered something of a 'conscience', or at least an elder statesman type, for many in the dem party.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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Living in Gin
 Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572
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Posted
I'm generally not a big fan of Sharpton, but I do think he's right about the change of tone in city politics. NYC's politics have traditionally been very combative and adversarial, but nowadays there seems to be very much of a pragmatic "can-do" vibe, and there seems to be much more accountability among city agencies such as the police department. It also helps that several major infrastructure projects are finally moving forward, after years (sometimes decades) of delays and political infighting.
-------------------- It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.
Posts: 1893 | From: Cincinnati, USA | Registered: Apr 2002
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by beza: And in 1994 “White folks was in caves while we was building empires ... We taught philosophy and astrology and mathematics before Socrates and them Greek homos ever got around to it.”
Well, that might be literally true, if by "white" you mean people who look like us northern Europeans.
Of course the Iraqis got civilized before any of the rest of us.
-------------------- Ken
L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.
Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002
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beza
Shipmate
# 10581
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Posted
Indeed, though I don't think the Middle East and North Africa were populated by West Africans, unless people subscribe to the views propagated by the likes of Louis Farrakhan.
Besides, I think it was the phrase "them homos" that people took exception to.
Come to think of it, I wonder who that bastion of tolerance and common sense Mr Farrakhan is endorsing? Now there's an endorsement the candidates must be crossing their fingers for.
Posts: 510 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2005
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Living in Gin
 Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572
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Posted
Is Farrakhan even still alive? Last I heard (a couple years ago) he had cancer and was in very poor health.
-------------------- It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.
Posts: 1893 | From: Cincinnati, USA | Registered: Apr 2002
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beza
Shipmate
# 10581
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Posted
Yeah he's still with us, not been beamed up to the Mothership yet.
Posts: 510 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2005
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RuthW
 liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by ken: quote: Originally posted by 206: Wowser. Maybe Mike could win this thing.
I wonder how many white Republican voters would look on an endorsement by Al Sharpton as a good reason for voting for a candidate?
As Sharpton is a self-promoting charlatan, this white Democrat sees his endorsement as a reason to vote against a candidate.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Pigwidgeon
 Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by beza: Besides, I think it was the phrase "them homos" that people took exception to.
Well, of course -- "those homos" would be more grammatically correct.
![[Biased]](wink.gif)
-------------------- "...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe." ~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Mad Geo
 Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by beza: Yeah he's still with us, not been beamed up to the Mothership yet.
I didn't realize the mothership went to Hell. Good to know.
Gin:
I was thinking the other day that if the economy keeps going to shit (and I think it will, somewhat) Bloomberg could run on a "I am THE businessman here and I can fix it better than these establishment morons" platform.
I think it might work.
-------------------- Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Mad Geo: I was thinking the other day that if the economy keeps going to shit (and I think it will, somewhat) Bloomberg could run on a "I am THE businessman here and I can fix it better than these establishment morons" platform.
I think it might work.
It's not working too well for Romney.
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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Living in Gin
 Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572
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Posted
If Bloomberg started going around the red states bragging about how he's always been anti-abortion, anti-gay, and pro-gun, he'd probably be taken about as seriously as Romney is now.
-------------------- It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.
Posts: 1893 | From: Cincinnati, USA | Registered: Apr 2002
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Mad Geo
 Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
You forgot to mention that post-it note with "I'm Mormon, kick me" written on it that's been stuck to ass for the whole election....
![[Biased]](wink.gif)
-------------------- Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Amazing Grace
 High Church Protestant
# 95
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by RuthW: quote: Originally posted by ken: quote: Originally posted by 206: Wowser. Maybe Mike could win this thing.
I wonder how many white Republican voters would look on an endorsement by Al Sharpton as a good reason for voting for a candidate?
As Sharpton is a self-promoting charlatan, this white Democrat sees his endorsement as a reason to vote against a candidate.
I'm with you.
I also think that Sharpton was influential in getting Bush elected twice, much in the same way that Robertson helped get Bill Clinton elected twice.
Charlotte
-------------------- WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play
Posts: 6593 | From: Sittin' by the dock of the [SF] bay | Registered: Jul 2003
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beza
Shipmate
# 10581
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Pigwidgeon: quote: Originally posted by beza: Besides, I think it was the phrase "them homos" that people took exception to.
Well, of course -- "those homos" would be more grammatically correct.
Yes, any endorsement from Al would lose the vote amongst English teachers.
Posts: 510 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2005
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RuthW
 liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
So -- Obama takes South Carolina by a mile, and the Clintons try to act as if it's no big deal. Really, I like Hillary Clinton less and less every day, and I had no fondness for her to start with. This last week has been disgraceful.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Alfred E. Neuman
 What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
Time to climb on the Soul Train, Ruth!
-------------------- --Formerly: Gort--
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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by RuthW: So -- Obama takes South Carolina by a mile, and the Clintons try to act as if it's no big deal. Really, I like Hillary Clinton less and less every day, and I had no fondness for her to start with. This last week has been disgraceful.
I agree. The race baiting and her disgusting performance in the "debate" (and I know Barack gave as good as he got) but Hillary has more of a machine behind her for those kind of tactics.
-------------------- "For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"
Posts: 2247 | From: Sacramento, California | Registered: Apr 2003
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RuthW
 liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
My favorite line from this week came from Romney: "the idea of Bill Clinton back in the White House with nothing to do is something I just can't imagine."
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by RuthW: My favorite line from this week came from Romney: "the idea of Bill Clinton back in the White House with nothing to do is something I just can't imagine."
Ain't that the truth. I predict Hillary will appoint him 'Ambassador To The World' and keep him busy jetting around gladhanding.
Now I'm wondering about Edwards: does he want to be 'King/Queenmaker'? Would it make sense for anyone to choose him as veep?
quote: Birth State Loss: What's Next?
The string of losses begs a reality check for his campaign. How long will it last? Beyond tonight, Edwards' campaign sources assure ABC News.
In an interview with ABC News' David Muir before the vote in South Carolina, Edwards was asked if there was a point at which he would debate the rationale for continuing the campaign.
"No, because the rationale for this campaign has nothing to do with me. It's for the people I speak for," Edwards said.
Political observers have already been debating Edwards' strategy. Some have speculated he may want to stay in the race even if he has little chance at the nomination. Others believe he could play the role of kingmaker -- or queenmaker -- closer to the convention by endorsing one candidate or another.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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wombat
Shipmate
# 5180
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Posted
Comments on a few earlier issues brought up:
The role Reagan played in successfully ending the Cold War was not his military buildup or his aggressive rhethoric of his first term.
It was his willingness to work with Gorbachev and to visibly be the man's friend which was crucial to ending the Cold War. This gave Gorbachev a stronger position at home, enabling him to carry out his policies of perestroika and glasnost which ultimately led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire. (Ironic, really, since Gorb. had hoped to strengthen the Soviet Union by relaxing controls.)
For all that I mostly despise Reagan, I give him credit for being flexible enough to change his position when the opportunity for friendlier relations opened up and I give him credit for what that led to.
Bloomsberg: Bloomsberg basically has been fanatically pro-war from square one and quite willing to justify the various tramplings Bush has made on the Constitution. For me, that means I'd rather be dragged down the Grand Canyon by my tongue than see him as president. The man's a tremendous opportunist who has betrayed both parties he's belonged to, so I hope he stays home.
-------------------- John Walter Biles Historian in Training
Posts: 363 | From: Maryland | Registered: Nov 2003
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Bullfrog.
 Prophetic Amphibian
# 11014
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Posted
quote: Originally Posted by wombat: The role Reagan played in successfully ending the Cold War was not his military buildup or his aggressive rhethoric of his first term.
It was his willingness to work with Gorbachev and to visibly be the man's friend which was crucial to ending the Cold War. This gave Gorbachev a stronger position at home, enabling him to carry out his policies of perestroika and glasnost which ultimately led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire. (Ironic, really, since Gorb. had hoped to strengthen the Soviet Union by relaxing controls.)
I'm not sure that it would be useful to try to separate hard and soft diplomacy, as if either could function effectively without the other. If Reagan hadn't had the arms to back up what he was trying to say, I'm not sure he'd be taken seriously. To negotiate with any power at all, he had to have something to give away first.
And I would also give Reagan credit for knowing very well when to play the lion and when to play the fox (thank Machiavelli for that one), at least until his mind starting failing due to Altzheimer's.
ETA:
And of course, I think what Obama said about Reagan and the GOP was generally accurate. They have had the vision that has defined politics for the past 20 years or so. That's reality.
Personally, I think the Tony "The Real Estate Fairy"* Rezko connection is going to be trouble for him, though he's done a pretty good job at damage control so far.
*Nickname borrowed from a Tribune Editorialist by the name of Kass [ 28. January 2008, 03:36: Message edited by: mirrizin ]
-------------------- Some say that man is the root of all evil Others say God's a drunkard for pain Me, I believe that the Garden of Eden Was burned to make way for a train. --Josh Ritter, Harrisburg
Posts: 7522 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006
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Beeswax Altar
Shipmate
# 11644
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Posted
I'm not sure the Rezko thing can hurt Obama. During the 1996 election, some pundents predicted that Bob Dole would select John McCain as his running mate. At a lecture series, Sam Donaldson was doing commentary on the presidential race. I asked Sam if Bob Dole selected McCain would the Keating Five scandal cause him problems. He figured the Democrats would bring it up but it wouldn't hurt the campaign. His reasoning was that it happened in the past and it was complicated. In order to hurt McCain, his opponents would have to remind everybody what it was and then explain it. As far as I know, Obabma's firm did some legal work for Rezko. So, his opponents have to explain who Rezko is and what he did. Then, they have to explain the connection in a way that it matters. Hillary Clinto raised the issue. The media ran the clip and talked about Rezko. Obama still won South Carolina handily. Besides, if I were the Clintons, I wouldn't want to spend much time talking about shady real estate deals.
Second, Obama was correct in his statement about the Republicans being the party of ideas. Thinking back on the Clinton administration, I remember two things Bill did that wasn't a priority of the Republicans: FMLA and gays in the military. The rest of his administration was a compromise with the Republicans where Clinton would give the Republicans enough of what they wanted to get a majority vote and take the credit for it happening while pretending it was his idea in the first place.
Its really hard for me to see why Democrats are supporting Hillary Clinton. They have a very strong chance of regaining the White House. However, the Dems. seem determined to help the Republicans rally the demoralized base by nominating a candidate the base hates. She may still win but its going to be much closer than if the Democrats nominate Obama. I don't get it. Who looks at Obama and then Clinton and thinks Hillary really excites me? I could understand women. But...who else?
-------------------- Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible. -Og: King of Bashan
Posts: 8411 | From: By a large lake | Registered: Jul 2006
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Matins: Who looks at Obama and then Clinton and thinks Hillary really excites me? I could understand women. But...who else?
Women are a majority of the electorate. Who else do you need?
Anyway, maybe some people don't want to be excited by the government. Maybe some people think that there has been too much excitement and shouting and want a government that manages to manage the post office and social security and medical funding and all the other boring things it seems to have to manage without breaking anything important or blowing anybody up.
If someone thought that way then "I'm pretty clever and I'm a good lawyer who can pick up a complex brief quickly and I know lots of important phone numbers and I'm a decent manager and I've seen it done before" might attract their vote.
-------------------- Ken
L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.
Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Matins: Its really hard for me to see why Democrats are supporting Hillary Clinton. They have a very strong chance of regaining the White House. However, the Dems. seem determined to help the Republicans rally the demoralized base by nominating a candidate the base hates.
I think Ted Kennedy might agree with your analysis.
quote: The coveted endorsement is a huge blow to Clinton, who is both a senatorial colleague and a friend of the Kennedy family. In a campaign where Clinton has trumpeted her experience over Obama's call for hope and change, the endorsement by one of the most experienced and respected Democrats in the Senate is a particularly dramatic coup for Obama.
For all his rhetoric, if Obama manages to capture the nomination it will signify huge change in the democratic machine and more power to him. Now if someone could shake up the repubs... and who better than Bloomberg.
What a great race this is turning out to be.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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