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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
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Amazing Grace
High Church Protestant
# 95
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Orb:
Would Richardson's New Mexico history give the Democrats a chance of winning Arizona, the neighbouring home state of John McCain? Or is that hopelessly optimistic?
Yes, that is.
Not only is John McCain personally popular there, Arizona has a rep for being a conservative ("red" if you will, using the post-2000 coloring scheme) state and has reliably gone R in Presidential races since I can remember. (They even voted for their native son Goldwater in 1964, which was the only time my state went Democrat between Truman and Clinton.)
Mind you, I think Gov Bill would be good at schmoozing the Latino voters and small-town folks elsewhere in the West (either for GOTV efforts or swing states - remember that Latinos went overwhelmingly for Clinton in California).
This may be time for the reminder for Our Friends Abroad that the US presidential election is actually 50+ individual ones. ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
Charlotte
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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play
Posts: 6593 | From: Sittin' by the dock of the [SF] bay | Registered: Jul 2003
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by MouseThief:
An interesting quandary: I seem to remember the Connie doesn't deny veeps from being foreign-born, only presidents. So if one has a foreign-born veep and kicks it, who becomes prez?
Speaker of the House?
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
The 12th amendment requires the vice president to meet the same constitutional eligibility requirements as the president.
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Comper's Child:
Wasn't Albright born abroad?
IIRC, she's Czech.
I'd dearly love to have her as president; she'd be awesome. But I think there are good reasons for the bit of the Constitution that prohibits naturalized citizens from being president.
And if we did change that bit...Arnold S. could run. He wants to, and some people have talked about changing it so he can.
![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Joyeux
Ship's Lady of Laughter
# 3851
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
quote:
Originally posted by Comper's Child:
Wasn't Albright born abroad?
IIRC, she's Czech.
I'd dearly love to have her as president; she'd be awesome. But I think there are good reasons for the bit of the Constitution that prohibits naturalized citizens from being president.
And if we did change that bit...Arnold S. could run. He wants to, and some people have talked about changing it so he can.
Since it would require a Constitutional ammendment to make that change, which requires passage of the Senate (and/or House) and then passage by at least two-thirds of the states, and such ammendment would not pass soon enough to allow Ah-nold, Ms Albright, or even Freddy Highmore (just as an example) to run for Prez.
Voted early today (last day in Texas), and was glad to see the turnout. We had a line that had to curve around so everyone would fit into the building, and this was around 12:30. Imagine what it will be like closer to 6, when the polls close at 7! Regardless of the outcome, I am encouraged to see people coming out to vote. Neither the woman in front of me and the woman behind me had ever voted before.
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Float?...Do science too
Posts: 4318 | From: over th... no, there! | Registered: Dec 2002
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Alogon
Cabin boy emeritus
# 5513
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Posted
The issue is not where one was born but whether one was born with U.S. citizenship. McCain was not born in the U.S., but it doesn't matter.
However, Madeleine Albright became a U.S. citizen only in 1957 (according to Wikipedia), so you are right that she would not qualify for President or VP. I had overlooked that little detail.
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Patriarchy (n.): A belief in original sin unaccompanied by a belief in God.
Posts: 7808 | From: West Chester PA | Registered: Feb 2004
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wombat
Shipmate
# 5180
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by MouseThief:
quote:
Originally posted by Comper's Child:
Wasn't Albright born abroad?
An interesting quandary: I seem to remember the Connie doesn't deny veeps from being foreign-born, only presidents. So if one has a foreign-born veep and kicks it, who becomes prez?
Line of Succession:
Vice-President
Speaker of the House of Representatives
President Pro Tempore of the Senate
Secretary of State
Secretary of the Treasury
Secretary of Defense
Then various other cabinet officers; I'm too lazy to type the whole list.
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John Walter Biles
Historian in Training
Posts: 363 | From: Maryland | Registered: Nov 2003
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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28
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Posted
quote:
The issue is not where one was born but whether one was born with U.S. citizenship. McCain was not born in the U.S., but it doesn't matter.
Actually I read something about this last night. He actually was born in the US, in the Panama Canal Zone which was at the time a US Territory. The question of weather being born in a US Territory counted as being a natural-born citizen has already been settled, in that Barry Goldwater was born in Arizona when it was a territory, not a state, and when he ran for president, his eligability was apparently decided by the Supreme Court. At least that's what the article I read said.
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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!
Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001
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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28
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Posted
Addendum to above, just did some quick checking and I think the article that I read about it having been tested by the court was wrong, as I can't find anything else that says it was.
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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!
Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001
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Amazing Grace
High Church Protestant
# 95
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemrw:
quote:
The issue is not where one was born but whether one was born with U.S. citizenship. McCain was not born in the U.S., but it doesn't matter.
Actually I read something about this last night. He actually was born in the US, in the Panama Canal Zone which was at the time a US Territory. The question of weather being born in a US Territory counted as being a natural-born citizen has already been settled, in that Barry Goldwater was born in Arizona when it was a territory, not a state, and when he ran for president, his eligability was apparently decided by the Supreme Court. At least that's what the article I read said.
I didn't know that McCain was born in the Canal Zone. (Learn something new every day.)
I had heard the same thing about Goldwater and the Supreme Court.
If McCain had been born outside US territory, he would of course still be a natural-born citizen (because of his parents' citizenship, unlike La Albright) but the court precedent would not necessarily hold.
Charlotte
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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play
Posts: 6593 | From: Sittin' by the dock of the [SF] bay | Registered: Jul 2003
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
There is a growing interest in Barack Hussein Obama amongst those in the Middle East watching our campaign process. It seems many Muslims are surprised that a man carrying a common Islamic name could have such a strong following in the US. No doubt his success so far is having a profound effect upon our image abroad. I discovered, while reading stories on the blogosphere, that it's not uncommon for Muslims to believe religious heritage naturally decends from the faith of father. Although his son is an avowed Christian, Barack Obama, Sr. was raised Muslim and so, to many of those of Muslim heritage, Barack remains at heart a true Muslim. The simple fact American citizens can claim their own religion and still find political success is not going unnoticed in the Middle East.
All of this provides great hope for Obama's potential on the international scene. Personally, I'm proud that after so many miserable years of loathing our image abroad, the American people can promote such a radically different candidate for President.
Barack Obama is a Hit in the Middle East
A New Face for American Diplomacy
[ 03. March 2008, 04:24: Message edited by: Gort ]
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460
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Posted
Whereas in in Africa Obama is read as an African (which "African Americans" often aren't) and in East Africa as a Luo - which will have an effect on the politics of at least three or for countries, if he gets in. Some people think it already has had an effect in Kenya.
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Ken
L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.
Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002
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Living in Gin
Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572
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Posted
For the first time in years, CNN has given us something useful: The Delegate Counter
Unless something incredibly shocking happens over the next 24 hours, I don't see how Hillary can get the nomination.
My optimistic prediction: Obama does better than expected, and ends Hillary's ambitions for good.
My pessimistic prediction: Nothing really changes, and the show will continue to slog on like a bad SNL skit.
[ 03. March 2008, 21:51: Message edited by: Living in Gin ]
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It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.
Posts: 1893 | From: Cincinnati, USA | Registered: Apr 2002
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Bullfrog.
Prophetic Amphibian
# 11014
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Posted
quote:
Originally Posted by ken:
Some people think it already has had an effect in Kenya.
Really? That's interesting. Which people think this and what sort of effect are they saying? Got a link?
Personally, I see both potential and danger in all of this. If the people in the Middle East are assuming that Obama is a Muslim, presumably there are going to be expectations linked to this belief. I wonder to what extent he will fulfill so many expectations (and this is a concern vis a vis his domestic base as well).
Posts: 7522 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mirrizin:
...If the people in the Middle East are assuming that Obama is a Muslim, presumably there are going to be expectations linked to this belief. I wonder to what extent he will fulfill so many expectations (and this is a concern vis a vis his domestic base as well).
I think "expectations" is reaching a bit. I doubt that many Muslims (or our domestic base) feel Obama is an evangelist for Muhammad. The primary benefit of his name and racial heritage on the world scene will be a reassessment of our social and political system as less threatening and potentially more sympathetic. This can only be a good thing.
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--Formerly: Gort--
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Living in Gin:
My pessimistic prediction: Nothing really changes, and the show will continue to slog on like a bad SNL skit.
This seems the most likely, as Clinton is polling very well in Ohio and Rhode Island; Texas is a toss up but she has had something of a surge in the Texas polls in the few days prior to the Texas primary according to realclearpolitics.com. Looking ahead, Clinton is also polling very well in Pennsylvania at the moment (with a long ways to go).
Not seeing a lot that would make her think she needs to drop out of the race. She could even win all of the contests on Mar 4.
[ 04. March 2008, 02:57: Message edited by: Choirboy ]
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
Correction - she's gonna get hosed in Vermont. So 3/4 on Mar 4 is a possibility.
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Choirboy:
quote:
Originally posted by Living in Gin:
My pessimistic prediction: Nothing really changes, and the show will continue to slog on like a bad SNL skit.
Not seeing a lot that would make her think she needs to drop out of the race. She could even win all of the contests on Mar 4.
The point is the delegate count and Hilary needs to win over 60% in these states.
WHat the Clinton campaign fails to point out now is how Texas and Ohio were supposed to be the "blowout" states. They won't be.
[ 04. March 2008, 03:58: Message edited by: SeraphimSarov ]
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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"
Posts: 2247 | From: Sacramento, California | Registered: Apr 2003
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Living in Gin
Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572
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Posted
I also think the polls are seriously under-representing the opinions and likely turnout of African-Americans and young voters, two of Obama's core demographics.
The weather in Ohio may also turn out to be a factor, as most of the state is being pummeled with a major winter storm today. Hillary's support seems strongest among the elderly and rural voters, two groups most likely to end up staying home when the weather is this rotten. Obama will easily carry the urban areas where his supporters are most concentrated, and where people have an easier time getting to the polls.
Could be interesting... I'm cautiously optimistic that Obama will once again do better than expected.
And SeraphimSarov is right... Despite what Clinton tries to say, it's all about the delegates. Even if she wins a series of narrow victories today, the only thing it will have accomplished is postponing the inevitable.
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It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.
Posts: 1893 | From: Cincinnati, USA | Registered: Apr 2002
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Living in Gin:
And SeraphimSarov is right... Despite what Clinton tries to say, it's all about the delegates. Even if she wins a series of narrow victories today, the only thing it will have accomplished is postponing the inevitable.
I think this is probably true. But I honestly don't understand the outrage that some folks express about a candidate continuing to run -- whether it is Huckabee or Clinton -- after the race is all but mathematically decided. I think that Hillary would be divisive if she tried to get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated. But continuing to run for as long as she is willing to and can afford to is entirely appropriate.
--Tom Clune
[ 04. March 2008, 12:40: Message edited by: tclune ]
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This space left blank intentionally.
Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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Izzybee
Shipmate
# 10931
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Posted
Tclune, thats one of the things I sort of see both sides on.
The aim of the Democrat party is to win the presidential racein November. At some point, in order to do that convincingly, everyone has to throw their support behind one candidate. Right now, Hillary is spending large amounts of her campaign money telling everyone that the man who might end up as candidate is not right for the job. I think there's only so far you can go down that road and still at a later date reverse your public views and get behind your opponent. I also think she's right at that point now.
While it's still tight, she has every right to fight for the nomination with whatever weapons she sees fit. If it gets to the point that she's fighting against someone who for all intents and purposes already the democratic nominee, then really all she's doing is dividing her own party. Negative campaigning is something I can't stand anyway, but it seems to me that negative campaigning against your own party is just flat out stupid (or selfish). The same goes for Obama, although I've seen far less vitriol from his campaign than I've seen from Hillary's.
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Hate filled bitch musings...
Posts: 1336 | From: Baltimore, MD | Registered: Jan 2006
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Bullfrog.
Prophetic Amphibian
# 11014
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Posted
quote:
Originally Posted by Gort:
I think "expectations" is reaching a bit. I doubt that many Muslims (or our domestic base) feel Obama is an evangelist for Muhammad. The primary benefit of his name and racial heritage on the world scene will be a reassessment of our social and political system as less threatening and potentially more sympathetic. This can only be a good thing.
I wouldn't say they expected him to be evangelistic, but even this "sympathy" may be somewhat hampered by his position. How much "sympathy" will he able to actually offer and what will that mean in practical costs, either political or fiscal?
Still, I see you point. It'll probably give him an initial boost in credibility that he could use very well if he played his cards right (and so far, Obama has seemed to be a fairly competent player of cards).
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Some say that man is the root of all evil
Others say God's a drunkard for pain
Me, I believe that the Garden of Eden
Was burned to make way for a train. --Josh Ritter, Harrisburg
Posts: 7522 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mirrizin:
quote:
Originally Posted by ken:
Some people think it already has had an effect in Kenya.
Really? That's interesting. Which people think this
A Kenyan I was talking to in the College bar...
There are occasional comments on the odd East African online group as well.
quote:
and what sort of effect are they saying?
suggestions of a false expectation among Luos that the USA would take their part in the recent disturbances in Kenya, which - according to some people - encouraged some rioters and demonstrators and so on to push things further than they would have otherwise. The recent prominence of Raila Odinga came after Obama was known as a candidate for US President.
quote:
If the people in the Middle East are assuming that Obama is a Muslim
then they would be remarkably stupid. Its hard to imagine that many people think he is a Muslim.
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Ken
L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.
Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002
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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
quote:
Originally posted by Living in Gin:
And SeraphimSarov is right... Despite what Clinton tries to say, it's all about the delegates. Even if she wins a series of narrow victories today, the only thing it will have accomplished is postponing the inevitable.
I think this is probably true. But I honestly don't understand the outrage that some folks express about a candidate continuing to run -- whether it is Huckabee or Clinton -- after the race is all but mathematically decided. I think that Hillary would be divisive if she tried to get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated. But continuing to run for as long as she is willing to and can afford to is entirely appropriate.
--Tom Clune
or counting on a superdelegate stitch-up.
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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"
Posts: 2247 | From: Sacramento, California | Registered: Apr 2003
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Izzybee
Shipmate
# 10931
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
then they would be remarkably stupid. Its hard to imagine that many people think he is a Muslim.
I'd like to think that too, but then I work with people (college educated people, who are voting) who believe he's a muslim. Apparently it's all a huge ploy - he's going to get elected, and then say "ha! fooled you!" and we'll all be forced to be muslim before you know it.
And people wonder why I'd love to be able to drink at lunchtime.
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Hate filled bitch musings...
Posts: 1336 | From: Baltimore, MD | Registered: Jan 2006
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Living in Gin
Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572
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Posted
More good news for Obama?
Tom Brokaw: 50 more superdelegates set to endorse Obama
If true, this means that even if Clinton sweeps all four states today (and picks up maybe 20 pledged delegates at most), she'll still be even further behind in the delegate count.
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It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.
Posts: 1893 | From: Cincinnati, USA | Registered: Apr 2002
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
McCain finally ends that race.
Obama squeeking by in Texas, before the caucases report, winning in Vermont. Clinton winning in Ohio and Rhode Island.
That race keeps going on, it seems.
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
Wow that's a tight race in Texas....
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
NBC is projecting Ohio to Hillary.
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Living in Gin
Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572
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Posted
Looks like the most important state in this whole thing tonight will be: Vermont, of all places. Obama's huge win in Vermont -- assuming close delegate counts in OH and TX -- means that he's even further ahead in the delegate count than he was at the beginning of the week.
Some bloggers are citing (unnamed, of course) high-level sources in the Clinton campaign and among Democratic big-wigs that Clinton will be out of the race by the end of the week. The question becomes whether she bows out of the race gracefully, or is pushed out by party elders who see the writing on the wall and are desperate to avoid a bloody fight in Denver. I hope they're right.
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It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.
Posts: 1893 | From: Cincinnati, USA | Registered: Apr 2002
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Mere Nick
Shipmate
# 11827
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
then they would be remarkably stupid. Its hard to imagine that many people think he is a Muslim. [/QB]
His father was, iiuc, and my concern is that there may be a number of muslims that believe that makes Barack either a muslim or an apostate that needs to be killed. It doesn't take a large number for that belief to matter. I've e-mailed the Secret Service a good while back my concern for his safety because of this. I'm not for him as president, but I'm all for him living.
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"Well that's it, boys. I've been redeemed. The preacher's done warshed away all my sins and transgressions. It's the straight and narrow from here on out, and heaven everlasting's my reward."
Delmar O'Donnell
Posts: 2797 | From: West Carolina | Registered: Sep 2006
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GoodCatholicLad
Shipmate
# 9231
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Mere Nick:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
then they would be remarkably stupid. Its hard to imagine that many people think he is a Muslim.
His father was, iiuc, and my concern is that there may be a number of muslims that believe that makes Barack either a muslim or an apostate that needs to be killed. It doesn't take a large number for that belief to matter. I've e-mailed the Secret Service a good while back my concern for his safety because of this. I'm not for him as president, but I'm all for him living. [/QB]
That is a concern for me also. I was thinking of starting a thread on it. I fear for his life and what would happen to this country if some nut tried something. I've read on a few Muslim blogs that Obama is an apostate and that many Muslim governments would not recognize his presidency, he would be considered anathema.
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All you have is right now.
Posts: 1234 | From: San Francisco California | Registered: Mar 2005
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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by GoodCatholicLad:
quote:
Originally posted by Mere Nick:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
then they would be remarkably stupid. Its hard to imagine that many people think he is a Muslim.
His father was, iiuc, and my concern is that there may be a number of muslims that believe that makes Barack either a muslim or an apostate that needs to be killed. It doesn't take a large number for that belief to matter. I've e-mailed the Secret Service a good while back my concern for his safety because of this. I'm not for him as president, but I'm all for him living.
That is a concern for me also. I was thinking of starting a thread on it. I fear for his life and what would happen to this country if some nut tried something. I've read on a few Muslim blogs that Obama is an apostate and that many Muslim governments would not recognize his presidency, he would be considered anathema. [/QB]
or a homegrown wingnut who believes he's secretly a Muslim and plans something.
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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"
Posts: 2247 | From: Sacramento, California | Registered: Apr 2003
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Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
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Posted
Oh my: I didn't realise the 'Muslim thing' could be such a big issue. My prayers for Mr Obama.
![[Votive]](graemlins/votive.gif)
[ 05. March 2008, 04:22: Message edited by: Ian Climacus ]
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
OK here is a cross-pond question, sorry if it's already been addressed.
If I understand the system correctly, caucuses are open to declared party members only, but primaries are a free-for-all.
Now that McCain has the Republican nomination in the bag, what's to stop Republicans using tactical voting in the remaining primaries and turning out to vote for Clinton on the basis that she is less likely to beat McCain?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Og, King of Bashan
Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Living in Gin:
Looks like the most important state in this whole thing tonight will be: Vermont, of all places. Obama's huge win in Vermont -- assuming close delegate counts in OH and TX -- means that he's even further ahead in the delegate count than he was at the beginning of the week.
You spin it how you want, this is what the Clinton people will say in the morning (I don't have a dog in this fight): Vermont is small, and there is no way that either Clinton or Obama will loose it. What will matter in November is who can win Florida and Ohio, and Clinton has shown that she can win in big states.
quote:
Some bloggers are citing (unnamed, of course) high-level sources in the Clinton campaign and among Democratic big-wigs that Clinton will be out of the race by the end of the week. The question becomes whether she bows out of the race gracefully, or is pushed out by party elders who see the writing on the wall and are desperate to avoid a bloody fight in Denver. I hope they're right.
Texas is still too close to call at this point, but based on a big win in Ohio, favorable endorsements in Pennsylvania, and the fact that a scandal has finally stuck to Obama (the whole NAFTA thing), I don’t see Clinton getting out by the end of the week. I live in Denver, and I am already starting to dread a nasty fight in August. We better sell lots of burgers and beers, because it is going to cost a lot of money to clean up the mess in the streets if Clinton sticks it out and pulls it out in a back room deal.
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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy
Posts: 3259 | From: Denver, Colorado, USA | Registered: May 2005
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
Nothing. Except not all primaries are 'open' - meaning you may need to be a registered democrat to vote in them; the rules vary by state. The next big state to vote, Pennsylvania, has a closed primary.
Before then are two smaller states (or at least with smaller population and fewer delegates) - Wyoming with a caucus with 18 delegates and Mississippi with an open primary and 40 delegates. Because of the strong African American support Obama has received since super tuesday at least, it is unlikely Clinton could gain too much ground even with strong Republican help in Mississippi.
The NY Times has a blurb stating that TV news is projecting Clinton as the winner in Texas. But it has to be so close as to not make much difference given the proportional allocation of delegates.
[crossposted with Matins]
[ 05. March 2008, 05:06: Message edited by: Choirboy ]
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Thanks Choirboy (though confusingly, that was Og King of Bashan and not Matins).
So is there a big state left with an open primary? What about Pennsylvania, for instance?
[ETA: sorry, you've answered my question. My eyes aren't properly open yet this morning. I'll amend this post to pleading for a common system for all states next time...]
[ 05. March 2008, 05:10: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
Arrgh! Sorry - a case of avatar confusion.
Pennsylvania has a closed primary.
On May 6, North Carolina holds an open primary; they have 134 delegates. Indiana has ~80 and Oregon and Kentucky have ~60 each. Indiana's is open but the others are closed.
It is looking a bit tough for Clinton in spite of her new 'momentum'.
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
If I understand the system correctly, caucuses are open to declared party members only, but primaries are a free-for-all...
Anyone can walk into a caucus, declared Democrat or not. You register your name and candidate of preference at the door. Later, when keynote speakers are finished disparaging Republicans and generally raising the rabble, the crowd breaks up into groups according to the precinct of their residence. At no point is ID, proof of voter registration, residence, citizenship or mental capacity required.
This is when the "caucus" begins. There is a "Precinct Organizer" (selected by the County Democratic Party Chair) who sits with the individual precinct groups and explains the process. First a volunteer secretary and tabulator for the group are solicited. The PO announces the number of precinct delegates allotted by total population. Our precinct covered my hometown of Silverdale (with a population of 35,000) and was given 6 delegate positions to elect to the County convention.
I volunteered to be tabulator. Next, a count is taken of how many in the group are supporting which candidate. Then the floor is opened for short speeches by individuals as to why they are supporting their particular candidate. You are given two minutes to make your spiel with the PO controlling who speaks next. Time is given for rebuttal and discussion of points given. When no-one has anything further to add, another head count is taken to see if anyone has changed their candidate affilation.
A percentage of candidate support is worked out amongst the total numbers of attendees. This percentage is applied to the number of delegates allotted the precinct. Our precinct came up with 4 Obama delegates to select and 2 for Clinton.
Next, the precinct group separates into individual groups according to candidate preference and elects delegates for their candidate from those in attendance. This is when I was elected one of four Obama delegates to the County convention - where the whole process begins again with the same procedural rules. At the County convention delegates are chosen to the State convention where delegates are chosen for the National convention. Delegates can switch sides at any point in the process.
Weird, huh?
The only difference I can see at the next convention and beyond is discussion and voting on Party "planks" (special interest positions on national issues) to be presented at the National convention in Denver.
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
NBC projects Clinton won Texas. Whew.
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
Anyone can walk into a caucus, declared Democrat or not.
Gah. Have you guys not heard of tactical voting over there, or is it simply not the American Way&trade?? ![[Confused]](confused.gif)
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
The individual hasn't the wit or will to plan such nefarious schemes. If an organized attempt were made, it would be found out and and the media would have a field day. You can't even generate an interest in the majority of citizens to vote, let alone sabotage any particular party.
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
Posted to add: From a town of 35,000 here, 32 people sat at our precinct table.
[ 05. March 2008, 06:53: Message edited by: Gort ]
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--Formerly: Gort--
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Hmm, I think I can see that in a small-town caucus, tactical voting might be detected, but in larger contexts, I don't see what's to stop anybody going in and voting for any candidate, particularly as it appears to be their constitutional right if the poll is not closed.
Don't McCain's supporters have a real interest in going and voting for Hillary every place they can now (on the basis that she would be easier to beat), and on what grounds could anybody stop them?
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Living in Gin:
Some bloggers are citing (unnamed, of course) high-level sources in the Clinton campaign and among Democratic big-wigs that Clinton will be out of the race by the end of the week. The question becomes whether she bows out of the race gracefully, or is pushed out by party elders who see the writing on the wall and are desperate to avoid a bloody fight in Denver. I hope they're right.
She said tonight that she's not quitting. ![[Smile]](smile.gif) I'm guessing that the Texas win was partly due to supporters of former Gov. Ann Richards.
As to a fight in Denver...when I was growing up, the conventions were televised, and could get pretty intense and wild. People really didn't know what a state was going to declare until the delegates announced it. Nothing was a foregone conclusion.
It should be pretty wild!
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
Is it OK for this Brit to say that he's glad Huckabee won't be running for President? While he may go for VP, is he too vain for that?
As far as McCain (or any other candidate is concerned) so long as they are basically honest, intelligent, and aren't too hard-working or have a sense of destiny then I'll be content.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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PataLeBon
Shipmate
# 5452
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
If I understand the system correctly, caucuses are open to declared party members only, but primaries are a free-for-all...
Anyone can walk into a caucus, declared Democrat or not. You register your name and candidate of preference at the door. Later, when keynote speakers are finished disparaging Republicans and generally raising the rabble, the crowd breaks up into groups according to the precinct of their residence. At no point is ID, proof of voter registration, residence, citizenship or mental capacity required.
This is when the "caucus" begins. There is a "Precinct Organizer" (selected by the County Democratic Party Chair) who sits with the individual precinct groups and explains the process. First a volunteer secretary and tabulator for the group are solicited. The PO announces the number of precinct delegates allotted by total population. Our precinct covered my hometown of Silverdale (with a population of 35,000) and was given 6 delegate positions to elect to the County convention.
I volunteered to be tabulator. Next, a count is taken of how many in the group are supporting which candidate. Then the floor is opened for short speeches by individuals as to why they are supporting their particular candidate. You are given two minutes to make your spiel with the PO controlling who speaks next. Time is given for rebuttal and discussion of points given. When no-one has anything further to add, another head count is taken to see if anyone has changed their candidate affilation.
A percentage of candidate support is worked out amongst the total numbers of attendees. This percentage is applied to the number of delegates allotted the precinct. Our precinct came up with 4 Obama delegates to select and 2 for Clinton.
Next, the precinct group separates into individual groups according to candidate preference and elects delegates for their candidate from those in attendance. This is when I was elected one of four Obama delegates to the County convention - where the whole process begins again with the same procedural rules. At the County convention delegates are chosen to the State convention where delegates are chosen for the National convention. Delegates can switch sides at any point in the process.
Weird, huh?
The only difference I can see at the next convention and beyond is discussion and voting on Party "planks" (special interest positions on national issues) to be presented at the National convention in Denver.
Not quite the same in Texas, but close. In Texas, due to the weird way they do things, you have to vote in the Democratic Primary to go to the caucus. They give out a slip of paper that certifies that you actually voted in the Democratic primary. I assume that's to keep people from voting Republican in the primary and going to the Democratic caucus (as the Republicans don't caucus).
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That's between you and your god. Oh, wait a minute. You are your god. That's a problem. - Jack O'Neill (Stargate SG1)
Posts: 1907 | From: Texas | Registered: Jan 2004
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Alicïa
Shipmate
# 7668
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Posted
Brit question here: Why don't they have a uniform system? why not all Primaries or all Caucuses?
Primaries seem more democratic to me.
Also, does anyone think there will be a revote in Florida and Michigan now? If so will it have much of an effect on the outcome?
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"The tendency to turn human judgments into divine commands makes religion one of the most dangerous forces in the world." Georgia Elma Harkness
Posts: 884 | From: Where the Art is. | Registered: Jun 2004
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Lady Alicia of Scouseland:
Brit question here: Why don't they have a uniform system? why not all Primaries or all Caucuses?
Because, even after the Civil War, it is still the United States (pl.), not like our own United Kingdom (sing.)
quote:
Primaries seem more democratic to me.
Also, does anyone think there will be a revote in Florida and Michigan now? If so will it have much of an effect on the outcome?
ISTM that Caucuses give more room for participation. It depends on your view of democracy.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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