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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IconiumBound:
The banter between Ruth and Grits has got me to thinking that Grits is closer to the mood of the electorate.
Based on what, exactly? While I don't expect much from the public at large, it astonishes me that people post opinions on a forum for serious debate without any apparent grounds for them.
So again, I will present actual facts. Have a look at this lovely little website, fivethirtyeight.com (538 is the total number of electoral votes), which in a nutshell averages polls, assigning more weight to those polls which have in the past proved more accurate. You'll see that Obama is narrowly ahead in the popular vote, but comfortably ahead in projections of the electoral college vote (which is of course the one that counts). Also have a look, if you will, at the post titled "Force Multiplier," which discusses the impact of get-out-the-vote organizing, which largely goes unmeasured by polls, and you'll see that Obama has the edge here. So -- he's ahead in the polls, and he's ahead at the organizing of potential voters that aren't being measured in the polls.
When Virginia -- Virginia! -- is a toss-up state, the electorate is ready for change. (See, support for my claims, not just bare claims, naked and cold.)
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Jason I. Am:
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
The way to ensure Obama's election may be to bring back thuggery...
Bring it back?
Of course, I meant for the Democrats to bring it back. Republicans have never turned their backs on such things, as all right-thinking Democrats know...
--Tom Clune
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Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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Zwingli
Shipmate
# 4438
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by Timothy the Obscure:
Try this: Bush implemented Republican policies; Bush is a bad president; therefore a president who implements Republican policies is a bad president.
As a syllogism it's valid.
No it's not. Consider:
John has a wife named Zelda.
John has false teeth.
Therefore anybody with a wife named Zelda has false teeth.
Your argument is of the form: A is B. A is C. Therefore all B are C. It is not a valid syllogism.
Let's break this down a little.
How about:
1) All Republican Presidents implement Republican policies.
2) Bush is a Republican.
3) Bush was a bad President.
4) Bush implemented Republican policies.
5) Bush was a bad President because he implemented Republican policies.
6) All Presidents who implement Republican policies are bad Presidents.
1) + 6) -> 7) McCain will implement Republican policies and thus will be a bad President.
8) McCain will implement the same policies as Bush, and will thus be a bad President.
2 and 3 are correct. 4 is partially correct. 1 is more correct than 4, that is, Bush implemented Republican policies less than most Republican Presidents do, especially when it is considered that he had a Republican House and Senate for some of his term, rare for a Republican. 5 really isn't true; most of Bush's screwups aren't really Republican, in any traditional sense. 6 may or may not hold, depending on your point of view, but there is very little evidence to support it from the presidency of GWB. 7 is mostly wrong. 8 could be correct, though I expect McCain (should he win) to be a little less bad than Bush. I'm not sure who I would vote for between McCain and Obama.
Posts: 4283 | Registered: Apr 2003
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Hiro's Leap
Shipmate
# 12470
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Grits:
[qb]I don't know if I can really say. It's just a very confident feeling, similar to the one I experience when I think about the longshot of death by global warning. ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
Would you have had a similar confident feeling about no U.S. city being reduced to the state New Orleans was in after Katrina? Or about oil prices not hitting $140 this year? Or even that aircraft would never be aimed at the Twin Towers, demolishing them both?
No one can imagine bad shit happening, but as soon as it has we think it was inevitable. It seems wiser to rely on expert advice and risk assessments than instinct.
[ 08. August 2008, 16:39: Message edited by: Hiro's Leap ]
Posts: 3418 | From: UK, OK | Registered: Mar 2007
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Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IconiumBound:
The banter between Ruth and Grits has got me to thinking that Grits is closer to the mood of the electorate.
I have no doubt Grits is closer to the mood of the part of the electorate with which she discusses things in Nashville. I'm assuming (perhaps unfairly) that many of those hundreds of people with whom she discusses politics who agree with her share her interests and viewpoints, whether by upbringing, social class, or shared faith.
We have two Shipmates from Nashville commenting on this thread, however, and they don't seem to have the same outlook...
I have little doubt that Georgia (where I live) will go Republican. I am equally aware that the Republican party in the state expects it won't be quite the knock-out that it was four years ago.
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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson
Posts: 3337 | From: ...somewhere in between 40 and death... | Registered: Mar 2007
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chadevan
Apprentice
# 12786
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Grits:
quote:
Originally posted by chadevan:
I'm not trying to be smart, but how is that not blind faith? Is it a religious conviction? If so, on what do you base it?
I don't know if I can really say. It's just a very confident feeling, similar to the one I experience when I think about the longshot of death by global warning. I just don't think the downfall of the U.S. is in the universal cards, so to speak.
(Faulkner Country? Mississippi?)
Yep, Mississippi. But don't be too jealous: Tennessee is the home state of Faulkner's greatest disciple, the hugely talented Cormac McCarthy (although the traitorous rogue has since relocated to Texas.)
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Cast a cold eye
on life, on death.
Horseman, pass by!
--W.B. Yeats
Posts: 41 | From: Faulkner Country | Registered: Jul 2007
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Grits
Compassionate fundamentalist
# 4169
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
No one can imagine bad shit happening, but as soon as it has we think it was inevitable. It seems wiser to rely on expert advice and risk assessments than instinct.
There's a big difference between "bad shit happening" and Ruth's "deep-seated conviction that this country is fucked up, perhaps beyond repair, because our international reputation is in the toilet, the economy is circling the drain, etc." I would never contest the reality of the bad stuff, just the conviction that it's beyond repair.
Organ Builder, I'm surprised at you. Can you not see that Sine is saying basically the same things as I? But he actually called L.A. "La La Land", and I would never even do that.
Ruth, I appreciated your post on the electoral votes, although it did start to make my eyes roll back in my head... ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
BTW, I am sincerely crushed about John Edwards. And, as usual, my problem is not even so much the affair as it is that he LIED about it and that he even entertained the thought that he'd get away with it! High-profile people have just got to smarten up.
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Lord, fill my mouth with worthwhile stuff, and shut it when I've said enough. Amen.
Posts: 8419 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Feb 2003
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Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Grits:
Organ Builder, I'm surprised at you. Can you not see that Sine is saying basically the same things as I? But he actually called L.A. "La La Land", and I would never even do that.
I also see that Sine seems to have a slightly different take on Senator McCain, however.
He may have called it La-La land, but I know from another thread that he frequents Starbucks, and I'll bet he's had a latte or two in his time...
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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson
Posts: 3337 | From: ...somewhere in between 40 and death... | Registered: Mar 2007
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Grits:
There's a big difference between "bad shit happening" and Ruth's "deep-seated conviction that this country is fucked up, perhaps beyond repair, because our international reputation is in the toilet, the economy is circling the drain, etc." I would never contest the reality of the bad stuff, just the conviction that it's beyond repair.
I did say perhaps beyond repair. And I hope you're right. But people aren't marching in the streets demanding their 4th amendment rights back, so I'm not optimistic.
quote:
Ruth, I appreciated your post on the electoral votes, although it did start to make my eyes roll back in my head...
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
quote:
BTW, I am sincerely crushed about John Edwards. And, as usual, my problem is not even so much the affair as it is that he LIED about it and that he even entertained the thought that he'd get away with it! High-profile people have just got to smarten up.
On this we are of one mind. I really don't care about the mistress or the kid, but I do care that he's so bone-headed. Imagine if he were going to be the nominee ... the Dems really dodged a bullet there.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443
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Posted
Surely Sine prepares his coffee with one of these, perhaps in silver to match his ice cream forks.
Greta
Posts: 3677 | Registered: Jun 2001
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443
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Posted
I don't think that Sen. McCain will want to talk much about womanizing nor will Cindy McCain want to bash drug addicts.
Greta
Posts: 3677 | Registered: Jun 2001
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Grits
Compassionate fundamentalist
# 4169
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
On this we are of one mind. I really don't care about the mistress or the kid, but I do care that he's so bone-headed. Imagine if he were going to be the nominee ... the Dems really dodged a bullet there.
I'm assuming this may have had something to do with him not wanting the VP nomination. I am thankful he had the foresight to at least consider the more widespread damage that would have done, or maybe he was just scared for himself. Like you said -- what a bonehead.
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Lord, fill my mouth with worthwhile stuff, and shut it when I've said enough. Amen.
Posts: 8419 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Feb 2003
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Foolhearty
Shipmate
# 6196
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Posted
While I was watching his Nightline interview, it occurred to me that Edwards was getting it all out in the open now because maybe he is going to be the VP nominee . . .
BTW, I heard a woman calling in to an NPR show earlier today, going on about how important it was to have an open roll call vote at the Dem convention so we could all notice how many delegates Hillary still has.
Will somebody please explain to me how Sen. Clinton comes off looking like anything but a sore loser from this process? Is there some positive value to be gained from this? Am I missing something?
Why can't she just acknowledge Obama's win and release her delegates and get on with getting him elected?
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Fear doesn't empty tomorrow of its perils; it empties today of its power.
Posts: 2301 | From: Upper right-hand corner | Registered: May 2004
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Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by CorgiGreta:
Surely Sine prepares his coffee with one of these, perhaps in silver to match his ice cream forks.
Greta
I think there were other motivations.
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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson
Posts: 3337 | From: ...somewhere in between 40 and death... | Registered: Mar 2007
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Foolhearty:
While I was watching his Nightline interview, it occurred to me that Edwards was getting it all out in the open now because maybe he is going to be the VP nominee . . .
Nope, I think his political career, if it isn't over, is at least stalled for a few years.
quote:
Will somebody please explain to me how Sen. Clinton comes off looking like anything but a sore loser from this process? Is there some positive value to be gained from this? Am I missing something?
You're rational, sane, and don't have an ego the size of all outdoors -- you'll never understand it.
Is anyone else struck by the difference in tone between McCain's ad on the Olympics and Obama's? I think McCain is making a mistake; his ad is really out of place among the Visa and Bank of America ads trying to be uplifting, not to mention the Olympic coverage itself. Whereas Obama's ad is positive and has a feeling of forward striving that fits with the Olympics.
I don't know what the heck he's doing with offshore drilling, though.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
Truly an entertaining ad! "Behold His mighty hand!" The slacktivist neatly concludes with a point missed by the McCain hacks - that those apocalyptic Left Behinders most sensitive to these scare tactics won't be around to vote. quote:
The problem for the McCain campaign, of course, is that [they] may not stick around to vote in November, having instead headed for the hills with the rest of the local Tribulation Force militia and their stockpile of canned goods, ammunition and krugerrands.
VOTE CARPATHIA NOW! You wouldn't want to delay the Lord's return, would you?
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--Formerly: Gort--
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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Hiro's Leap
Shipmate
# 12470
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
The slacktivist neatly concludes with a point missed by the McCain hacks - that those apocalyptic Left Behinders most sensitive to these scare tactics won't be around to vote.
No, because they'll be raptured any second.
I'm not sure what the etiquette is about linking to other forums and hopefully I'm not overstepping that (boards wars and all), but this ad is mentioned in the Rapture Ready forums, e.g.:
quote:
Wow that video was scary!! I have been reading on this board about Obama possibly being the Antichrist or close to it??? or maybe a precurser to the Antichrist?? I was going to vote for him, but I am now having second thoughts. Everytime I see him on TV or read or see a video on him I get a icky twinge in my stomach!!
[...]
Yea, just a really cweepy dude. I can not listen to him anymore, he just sounds like a dictator to me
[...]
Maybe Obama does get elected and pulls the troops from Iraq. This opens the door for the "tourism" that they seek, and an opportunity to beautify Babylon into the great city it once was.
I know these guys aren't a majority, but even as a significant minority in the world's most powerful nation they scare the crap out of me.
[ 12. August 2008, 07:12: Message edited by: Hiro's Leap ]
Posts: 3418 | From: UK, OK | Registered: Mar 2007
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
I know these guys aren't a majority, but even as a significant minority in the world's most powerful nation they scare the crap out of me.
It's funny what scares people: I read that stuff and think 'better than average trolling'.
I'm more unnerved by people who think they know how to solve the world's problems and won't hesitate to use the power of the state to implement their fixes.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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Campbellite
Ut unum sint
# 1202
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
When Virginia -- Virginia! -- is a toss-up state, the electorate is ready for change.
It is nice to know that my vote will actually matter this time.
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I upped mine. Up yours.
Suffering for Jesus since 1966.
WTFWED?
Posts: 12001 | From: between keyboard and chair | Registered: Aug 2001
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Justinian
Shipmate
# 5357
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Jason I. Am:
I think part of the attraction in voting for McCain comes from people who still feel genuinely hurt by the thrashings they received for their support of Bush over the last 8 years, especially around the 2004 election time.
Um... no. The invasion of Iraq produced a lot of deep wounds. The thrashings people received for their support of Bush have at worst produced a bunch of prima donnas with bruised egos and chips on their shoulders. If you want to talk about deep wounds, go to Iraq. That is a deeply wounded country.
Although I suppose that in terms of wounds you could always look at New Orleans, an increase in the National Debt of around $10,000 per person ($3 trillion, 300m Americans), a $10,000 cost to the economy per American of the War in Iraq and numerous other things. But when it comes to Bush Bashing as a source of wounding America, cry me a river.
quote:
They see all of the Bush-haters crowding around Obama and they don't want to align themselves with that person, even if he would make a great candidate.
So you are saying that their chips are big enough to make them cut off their noses to spite their faces? And you seem to be claiming that the Democratic party was the only one going negative. Have you forgotten the Whitewater nonsense? Or even the Swift Boat Liars?
And Grits, you made one good point to Ruth. No one is in a position to get the pulse of 300 million people. However those in metropolitan areas are in a better position than those in the "heartland" - there are more of them, and they meet more individuals due to population density. This is no reason for the "heartland" to try to patronise them.
Posts: 3926 | From: The Sea Coast of Bohemia | Registered: Dec 2003
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
The Purpose Driven Campaign Event.
quote:
Obama said America's greatest moral failure is its insufficient help to the disadvantaged. He noted that the Bible quotes Jesus as saying "whatever you do for the least of my brothers, you do for me." He said the maxim should apply to victims of poverty, sexism and racism.
McCain said the nation's greatest moral shortcoming is its failure to "devote ourselves to causes greater than our self-interests."
snip
Asked why they want to be president, Obama said the United States should be an empathetic power for good in the world, a mission he fears is slipping away.
McCain said, "I want to inspire a generation of Americans to serve a cause greater than its self interest. . But I also believe we face enormous challenges, both of national security and domestic."
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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Mamacita
Lakefront liberal
# 3659
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Posted
(from link posted above): quote:
McCain tended to give shorter, less complex answers, winning somewhat more applause than Obama from the large, evangelical church's audience.
That's it in a nutshell. Where Obama seemed to give consideration to each of Warren's questions and give a thoughtful answer on the spot, McCain pulled out slogans and anecdotes from his stump speeches. It was "preaching to the choir" at its most insidiously effective. McCain clearly went in with the 5 or 6 talking points that he wanted to hammer home, e.g. "liberal" judges and radical Islam, and he sought opportunities to work these in even if they weren't direct answers to Warren's questions. (BTW, I think I counted no less than three references to his having been a POW.) I'm sure that many people saw McCain's performance as stronger, more decisive, just because of that. And for me, that raises concerns about Obama's electability. After last night, I thought, "Brilliant performance Barack, but you've got to start kicking ass." Perhaps that's falling into the same trap.
And McCain's "pursue Bin Laden to the gates of Hell" mini-tirade, which drew great roars from the crowd, was but one of several references to imminent danger in the world. Remind them to be afraid. That's the way to win votes. (Sigh.)
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Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world’s grief. Do justly, now. Love mercy, now. Walk humbly, now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.
Posts: 20761 | From: where the purple line ends | Registered: Dec 2002
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443
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Posted
Interesting photo in the NPR site! Sen. McCain looks like a dotty octogenarian held upright by Rick Warren, who, otherwise ignores him, due to being utterly enraptured by Sen. Obama.
I think the photo might be fun as a caption competition.
Greta
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Mamacita:
(from link posted above): quote:
McCain tended to give shorter, less complex answers, winning somewhat more applause than Obama from the large, evangelical church's audience.
That's it in a nutshell. Where Obama seemed to give consideration to each of Warren's questions and give a thoughtful answer on the spot, McCain pulled out slogans and anecdotes from his stump speeches.
I must confess that I thought the whole thing was excellent. I thought both Obama and McCain acquitted themselves very well. In truth, that makes McCain the bigger surprise for me, as I usually find him rather wooden in these contexts. If he can maintain that level of poise and coherence during the face-to-face debates, I think Obama will have his hands full.
Anyway, I thought that Rev. Warren did a fine job moderating, and was very careful to phrase the questions just the same for both men. The qustions themselves were appropriate and had some real substance to them, allowing both candidates to express substantive points.
All in all, it was a very respectable kick-off to the election season.
--Tom Clune
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Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
If he can maintain that level of poise and coherence during the face-to-face debates, I think Obama will have his hands full.
There are good reasons Obama refused McCain's request for ten 'town hall' style debates where unscripted questions from citizens are fielded.
NPR said this morning he's going to announce his veep soon and Biden is on the short list: I confess I see more considerably more downside that upside for Obama with that choice. I zoned out listening due to traffic but didn't hear Richardson who I still think would be good mentioned.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
NPR said this morning he's going to announce his veep soon and Biden is on the short list: I confess I see more considerably more downside that upside for Obama with that choice. I zoned out listening due to traffic but didn't hear Richardson who I still think would be good mentioned.
Well, Biden was my first choice from the start, so I would be delighted with that choice. As to Richardson, I was interested in him as a resume, but whenever I saw him campaign, he was really, really awful. I don't think Obama should risk such a bad campaigner, even though I think he has a lot to offer in government. I would suggest that it would make more sense to appoint him to the cabinet than to try to run with him.
--Tom Clune
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Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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Grits
Compassionate fundamentalist
# 4169
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Posted
I guess I thought Obama might pick someone a little -- I don't know... younger than Biden. He's only 6-7 years younger than McCain, and that's been such an issue, I thought Obama would really cling to the "youth" factor.
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Lord, fill my mouth with worthwhile stuff, and shut it when I've said enough. Amen.
Posts: 8419 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Feb 2003
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
McCain might have stolen his cross in the dirt story from Solzhenitsyn. ![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
If history teaches us anything, it is that the opposition will move heaven and earth to make this election about the truth of this anecdote instead of about the real and vast policy differences between the two candidates. I hated it when Republicans debased the process in such a way, and I sincerely hope (although do not expect) that Dems can restrain themselves from committing the same abomination.
--Tom Clune
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Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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Nightlamp
Shipmate
# 266
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Posted
As a person from across the pond I think McCain is the only Republican who could possibly win the election. Yet this gaff might well kill him off.
I expect there to be a congress completely dominated by the Democrats. Still despite this gaff I think in the quiet of the polling booth a lot of people might just vote McCain for president and democrat everything else and so McCain might just squeak in. So we can look forward to Clinton in 2012.
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I don't know what you are talking about so it couldn't have been that important- Nightlamp
Posts: 8442 | From: Midlands | Registered: May 2001
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
If history teaches us anything, it is that the opposition will move heaven and earth to make this election about the truth of this anecdote instead of about the real and vast policy differences between the two candidates. I hated it when Republicans debased the process in such a way, and I sincerely hope (although do not expect) that Dems can restrain themselves from committing the same abomination.
They do it because it works, like negative advertising. I blame the public at large who would rather latch on to such things than educate themselves about the candidates.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
As a person from across the pond I think McCain is the only Republican who could possibly win the election. Yet this gaff might well kill him off.
I expect there to be a congress completely dominated by the Democrats. Still despite this gaff I think in the quiet of the polling booth a lot of people might just vote McCain for president and democrat everything else and so McCain might just squeak in. So we can look forward to Clinton in 2012.
Actually, the press is trying to make it look like more of a horse race by concentrating on the popular vote. In reality, it is not particularly close in the only sense that actually matters, the electoral college If McCain ends up squeeking this out, it will be truly stunning.
--Tom Clune
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Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
The tendency to merge the anecdotes of others into ones personal experience seems to become easier with age. McCain's possible error speaks more to his advanced decrepitude than intentional deceit.
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--Formerly: Gort--
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
The tendency to merge the anecdotes of others into ones personal experience seems to become easier with age.
Certainly true--I saw this in my parents before they died.
Which may incline one to be charitable to an aging war hero, but wouldn't incline one to vote for him. It isn't the way his campaign probably wants us to see it.
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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson
Posts: 3337 | From: ...somewhere in between 40 and death... | Registered: Mar 2007
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Bullfrog.
Prophetic Amphibian
# 11014
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Grits:
I guess I thought Obama might pick someone a little -- I don't know... younger than Biden. He's only 6-7 years younger than McCain, and that's been such an issue, I thought Obama would really cling to the "youth" factor.
Perhaps, though he might also be going for the classic "balancing" VP. If Barack is too young, find a VP that is old. If he's too liberal, find someone more conservative. If he's too anti-establishment, find a reasonably respectable establishment person, etc. Picking an older VP could make a lot of sense, to me at least.
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Some say that man is the root of all evil
Others say God's a drunkard for pain
Me, I believe that the Garden of Eden
Was burned to make way for a train. --Josh Ritter, Harrisburg
Posts: 7522 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443
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Posted
I doubt that Sen. McCain is guilty of deliberate plagarism. He does, however, seem to sufer from episodes of long term memory confusiion.
Greta
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Gwai
Shipmate
# 11076
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
As a person from across the pond I think McCain is the only Republican who could possibly win the election. Yet this gaff might well kill him off.
I expect there to be a congress completely dominated by the Democrats. Still despite this gaff I think in the quiet of the polling booth a lot of people might just vote McCain for president and democrat everything else and so McCain might just squeak in. So we can look forward to Clinton in 2012.
Actually, the press is trying to make it look like more of a horse race by concentrating on the popular vote. In reality, it is not particularly close in the only sense that actually matters, the electoral college If McCain ends up squeeking this out, it will be truly stunning.
--Tom Clune
Looking at that link... They have Texas as a place that is only leaning a bit towards McCain. I consider that ridiculous. If McCain loses Texas, I'll give everyone here an orangutan!
Lodging my opinion that the VP canidates will be Tim Kaine (Obama is going to Virginia this week, after all) and Tom Ridge.
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A master of men was the Goodly Fere,
A mate of the wind and sea.
If they think they ha’ slain our Goodly Fere
They are fools eternally.
Posts: 11914 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
Fivethirtyeight.com says Texas will go to McCain. And gives a lot of numbers to back up its projections.
It doesn't matter that Obama's schedule says he's going to Virginia -- they can change that:
quote:
Mr. Obama’s schedule calls for him to awaken on Tuesday in Orlando, Fla., and by the end of the day be in Raleigh, N.C. By Wednesday, he is scheduled to be in Virginia. The Obama campaign has cautioned against reading anything into his schedule, saying it could be changed in an instant to accommodate the plan to introduce the running mate. NY Times
I doubt Obama would tip his hand like that, after taking such care not to let news about his VP decision leak.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Nightlamp
Shipmate
# 266
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
If McCain ends up squeeking this out, it will be truly stunning.
--Tom Clune
Still, I think he will do so, since history has shown that the American public do not like all the levers of government to be dominated by one party for very long.
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I don't know what you are talking about so it couldn't have been that important- Nightlamp
Posts: 8442 | From: Midlands | Registered: May 2001
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
McCain's possible error speaks more to his advanced decrepitude than intentional deceit.
I think Gort's pinned him down: just another old fart who's never done jackshit wannabee.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
McCain's possible error speaks more to his advanced decrepitude than intentional deceit.
I think Gort's pinned him down: just another old fart who's never done jackshit wannabee.
I don't think that was what Gort was saying. Certainly, McCain is getting old. I would grant that he may be too old to be POTUS. But it strikes me as over the top to describe McCain as an old fart "who's never done jackshit." May we all be as "unproductive" with our lives...
--Tom Clune
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Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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Campbellite
Ut unum sint
# 1202
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Fivethirtyeight.com says Texas will go to McCain. And gives a lot of numbers to back up its projections.
It doesn't matter that Obama's schedule says he's going to Virginia -- they can change that:
The news reports last night said that Obama had made his choice, and that he would be making an announcement within 24 hours, pending notification of his VP candidate. At almost the same time, he announced that he would be holding a "town hall meeting" here in Lynchburg, VA. By the time I heard the news, the local Obama headquarters were out of tickets. <damn!>
The meeting will be at a high school right across the street from my church.
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I upped mine. Up yours.
Suffering for Jesus since 1966.
WTFWED?
Posts: 12001 | From: between keyboard and chair | Registered: Aug 2001
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Campbellite:
The news reports last night said that Obama had made his choice, and that he would be making an announcement within 24 hours, pending notification of his VP candidate. At almost the same time, he announced that he would be holding a "town hall meeting" here in Lynchburg, VA.
Where did you see this? It wasn't in anything I read.
His campaign has said it will be announced first via email (or text? I'm not sure) to his supporters. That message would almost certainly be sent first thing in the morning in order to take hold a one complete 24-hour news cycle. So it's not happening today. Saturday is a lot of people's bet; he'll be back in Illinois then.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
Still way too early to conclude anything much except Obama is not participating in a cakewalk.
quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.
The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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Campbellite
Ut unum sint
# 1202
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Where did you see this? It wasn't in anything I read.
His campaign has said it will be announced first via email (or text? I'm not sure) to his supporters. That message would almost certainly be sent first thing in the morning in order to take hold a one complete 24-hour news cycle. So it's not happening today. Saturday is a lot of people's bet; he'll be back in Illinois then.
It was speculation (we now know) in the local news. I was able to watch the live feed on our local TV station website (www.wset.com).
At this point, I would guess that the announcement will be made in Springfield, IL on Saturday. [I am on that email list.]
[ 21. August 2008, 04:01: Message edited by: Campbellite ]
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I upped mine. Up yours.
Suffering for Jesus since 1966.
WTFWED?
Posts: 12001 | From: between keyboard and chair | Registered: Aug 2001
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Campbellite:
It was speculation (we now know)
Sorry, but we always knew it was speculation! As is every "news" story about the VP announcement until they finally make it.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443
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Posted
I am probably reading way too much into Sen. Obama's statements regarding his choice for running mate, which may not be hints at all, but the words 'independent' and 'strengthening the economy' seem to suggest...
Greta
Posts: 3677 | Registered: Jun 2001
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