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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
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saysay
Ship's Praying Mantis
# 6645
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Posted
Being a former Delawarean, I adore Joe. If I were voting for chief-policy-wonk, Biden would have been my first choice for a nominee, so I'm happy to see him get the VP slot.
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Providing he doesn't put his foot in it, and yes, St. Punk, I'll be praying that he doesn't. ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
I'm afraid this is a bit optimistic. With only a few months of campaigning, and a good team to keep him on-message, he might avoid saying anything too bad. But I'll mostly be praying that when the inevitable verbal gaffes happen, either the media are distracted by something else or the campaign manages to point out the absurdity of people criticizing Obama for being all style and no substance while criticizing Biden for being all substance and no style.
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"It's been a long day without you, my friend
I'll tell you all about it when I see you again"
"'Oh sweet baby purple Jesus' - that's a direct quote from a 9 year old - shoutout to purple Jesus."
Posts: 2943 | From: The Wire | Registered: May 2004
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Just watched the whole of Michelle Obama's speech (CSPAN being re-run on the BBC Parliamentary Channel - so we're going to be able to hear the lot this side of the pond).
She's a brilliant communicator and spoke with great power and passion. I liked what I heard. But I'm a novice when it comes to reading the signs in US politics. What did you all make of it?
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Just watched the whole of Michelle Obama's speech (CSPAN being re-run on the BBC Parliamentary Channel - so we're going to be able to hear the lot this side of the pond).
She's a brilliant communicator and spoke with great power and passion. I liked what I heard. But I'm a novice when it comes to reading the signs in US politics. What did you all make of it?
I will be voting for Obama. My response to his wife is pretty much the same as my response to him as a speaker. I like the content, but I don't much care for either of them as speakers. There is something intangible about a great speech-maker that transcends the content of the speech. I was never a great fan of JFK, but he was definitely a great speech-maker. You felt that he was fully-engaged in the speech, and was trying to connect with the audience personally.
I don't know what that thing is that makes for a great orator, but neither of the Obamas quite have it. Of course, there haven't been many great orators who have run for president in my lifetime. And I rather suspect that the decline of importance in public appearances -- it's all television ads now -- is keeping many talented people from fully developing that performance skill.
--Tom Clune
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Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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Grits
Compassionate fundamentalist
# 4169
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Posted
As a rule, I don't care for women speakers. Most of them are just not very genuine. But I will never forget Elizabeth Dole at the '96 RNC. I thought she was amazing.
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Lord, fill my mouth with worthwhile stuff, and shut it when I've said enough. Amen.
Posts: 8419 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Feb 2003
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
Sounds like you're saying you make exceptions for Republicans. ![[Paranoid]](graemlins/paranoid.gif)
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Grits
Compassionate fundamentalist
# 4169
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Posted
Who, moi? ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
No, I just thought it was an exciting, bold presentation, especially being it was 12 years ago. She was just so poised. Her words were all about her husband, but it was just... effortless. She was engaging, whereas I find Hillary's speaking style offputting, for example.
I thought Mrs. Obama did a fine job. Let's face it -- there's a lot riding on this, and you know she had to be feeling some pressure.
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Lord, fill my mouth with worthwhile stuff, and shut it when I've said enough. Amen.
Posts: 8419 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Feb 2003
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
You're certainly not the only person who finds Hillary's speaking style offputting. Her speaking style and a great deal else. I was deathly afraid she'd be the Dem nominee and I might have to vote for her -- or (shudder) a Republican.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28
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Posted
First assasination attempt
Though they don't seem to be the brightest crayons in the box. Which in a way scares me because they're the ones who might actually be able to pull it off. No elaborate plot or anything that would arouse suspicion, just go and do it. This only got caught cause the guy was driving erratically. They'd get caught after of course, but that would be too late.
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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!
Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
Yeah, Hillary Clinton grates. I think Michelle Obama did a very nice job, though I agreed with whatever pundit on PBS who said there should have been a bit more detail about the man himself.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
I suspect we will get our fill on the man himself soon enough. ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
I can't stand Ted Kennedy (no tears here for him buying the farm shortly), but I have to admit he did pretty good last night. Bastard.
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Grits
Compassionate fundamentalist
# 4169
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Posted
Perhaps a close brush with one's own mortality can make even the most obtuse a bit more humane.
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Lord, fill my mouth with worthwhile stuff, and shut it when I've said enough. Amen.
Posts: 8419 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Feb 2003
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Grits
Compassionate fundamentalist
# 4169
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I think Michelle Obama did a very nice job, though I agreed with whatever pundit on PBS who said there should have been a bit more detail about the man himself.
Maybe someone decided this would be a good time for her to work on her own public image, reassuring the country that she is patriotic, proud to be an American, etc.
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Lord, fill my mouth with worthwhile stuff, and shut it when I've said enough. Amen.
Posts: 8419 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Feb 2003
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
Just goes to show, once again, how low the political rhetoric has sunk when someone like Michelle Obama has to go on national TV to say she loves this country. Can't we just assume that Americans are patriotic and love their country? [/dreamworld]
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Mere Nick
Shipmate
# 11827
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Just goes to show, once again, how low the political rhetoric has sunk when someone like Michelle Obama has to go on national TV to say she loves this country. Can't we just assume that Americans are patriotic and love their country?
Not when you have someone saying something like "For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of my country".
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"Well that's it, boys. I've been redeemed. The preacher's done warshed away all my sins and transgressions. It's the straight and narrow from here on out, and heaven everlasting's my reward."
Delmar O'Donnell
Posts: 2797 | From: West Carolina | Registered: Sep 2006
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
See, that's the problem. Patriotism doesn't mean being proud of your country when it's done so little to be proud of. Michelle Obama and I are about the same age, and US history in my adult life looks pretty bad to me. Our foreign policy has been marked by incompetence and ignorance in both Republican and Democratic administrations, and at home we've let the poor and the nearly poor get further and further behind while the rich just get richer and richer and the middle class gets squeezed. The opportunities after the Soviet bloc broke up were wasted. The goodwill of the world after 9/11 was squandered. We're the richest country in the world, but homeless people wander our city streets and millions of us don't have access to basic health care. We've sold our civil liberties for the illusion of security.
I love our ideals, but it's hard to be proud of the country when we aren't even trying to live up to them.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Campbellite
Ut unum sint
# 1202
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Posted
This is what Laura Bush had to say about Michelle Obama's pride in our country.
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I upped mine. Up yours.
Suffering for Jesus since 1966.
WTFWED?
Posts: 12001 | From: between keyboard and chair | Registered: Aug 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Good for Laura Bush. A gracious act in the midst of the politically-motivated nitpicking.
Basically I'm with RuthW on this "proud to be American" issue.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443
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Posted
Good grief! I agree with Grits that Elizabeth Dole's speech was brilliant. However, I think that Michelle Obama did a spectacular job, and the two beautiful little girls almost almost stole the show. David Brooks said that they delivered four million votes.
I think that all the speakers, of various oratorical abilities, were wonderful. Now, if the Clintons don't rain on the parade.....
Greta
Posts: 3677 | Registered: Jun 2001
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
From this side of the pond I do find it odd that the wives are expected to give speeches at conventions when they are not up for election.
I do also find the pride thing a bit odd - but then generally when British leaders start wrapping themselves in the flag it is to distract you from something dreadful they've done or are about to do (or be held responsible for).
As in: we have an institutionally racist immigration system - but don't worry if we grant leave to stay we'll make them take a Britishness test. Our schools are a mess, but don't worry we've introduced citizenship classes. Oh look a credit crunch - but how about we introduce a graduating to citizenship ceremony for our 18 year olds - and lets have a national debate on what it means to be British ! How excited are you, look at the brightly coloured things - not the interest rate - brightly coloured things, red, white, blue, red, white, blue, but don't think too hard about the red ...
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
Damn, democrats can be their own worst enemies.
Our government may suck at times, but then she didn't specify, and the American public often doesn't seperate "Americans" from "America". What she said was stupid for a presidential hopefuls spouse, maybe not for an average citizen, but certainly for an Obama.
Democrats seem to have a serious obsession with changing shit while failing to notice what has changed, and often for the better. If she thinks that race-relations hasn't improved in her lifetime, she's high.
Our economy is and has been the largest on earth. We have the largest industrial output, services output, manufacturing output, innovation index, etc.
Unemployment has been rock bottom for most of her life.
We are still a (relatively) free country.
Our inbox overfloweth with immigrants. Let me know when our outbox starts growing. I've not seen it in my (slightly shorter) lifetime.
We have the best universities in the world.
We give more aid (and soldiers for that matter) than any other country on earth.
On and on.
Democrats need to stop grousing so damn much and get their shit together enough to vote their boy in. Especially one's with Obama as a last name.
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443
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Posted
The Republicans can also do some rather stupid things. In 2000, they brushed McCain aside and told us that Bush was the man. BIG MISTAKE! Now we are supposed to believe them when they tell us that McCain's the man after all.
Greta
Posts: 3677 | Registered: Jun 2001
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by CorgiGreta:
The Republicans can also do some rather stupid things. In 2000, they brushed McCain aside and told us that Bush was the man. BIG MISTAKE! Now we are supposed to believe them when they tell us that McCain's the man after all.
To be fair, they can argue that at the time Bush was the best and McCain was 2nd best, and now that the best has served his two terms, the second best ratchets up a notch and becomes the best. No?
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
Oh don't get me wrong, the Republicans are stone cold stupid on some things too (mostly policy). Bush has been an utter disaster.
The thing that consistently drives me batshit with the dems is that they can't focus on the positives and that they regularly can't agree to compromise enough to elect someone. They seem to get stuck on stupid ideas like "Because my girl didn't get elected this time, I'm not going to vote for the black guy that trounced her ass in a fair fight". Or similar.
I don't see McCains people en masse saying "I wanted Romney and screw McCain". I also don't see Republican politicians (or their spouses) saying "America has sucked for the last 43 years". Sure there are exceptions but they are exceptions.
Really really dumb politics.
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Presleyterian
Shipmate
# 1915
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Posted
quote:
Grits wrote: As a rule, I don't care for women speakers. Most of them are just not very genuine.
This doesn't come as a surprise, given that Grits has said it before. But when does an innocuous expression of personal opinion cross the line into a malignant expression of personal prejudice?
"As a rule, I don't care for African-American speakers. Most of them are just not very sincere"?
"As a rule, I don't care for Jewish speakers. Most of them are just not very honest"?
"As a rule, I don't care for Southern speakers. Most of them are just not very trustworthy"?
Just asking.
Posts: 2450 | From: US | Registered: Dec 2001
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
If she thinks that race-relations hasn't improved in her lifetime, she's high.
She said her adult lifetime. She's just a few months younger than me, and race relations have not changed significantly since I turned 18 in 1980.
quote:
Our economy is and has been the largest on earth. We have the largest industrial output, services output, manufacturing output, innovation index, etc.
But we're not all benefitting from that. Real wages are going down.
quote:
Unemployment has been rock bottom for most of her life.
There was a serious recession in 1982, and there's another one now. The unemployment figures only measure the numbers of people looking unsuccessfully for work. They don't measure the ones who have given up. And a lot of good jobs have been replaced by crap jobs. Michelle Obama's father supported his family of four with a working-class municipal job cleaning boilers and her mother stayed home; now there are a lot of people supposedly in the same economic class who need both parents to be employed to stay above water.
quote:
We are still a (relatively) free country.
We'll be a free country when we get habeus corpus back.
quote:
Our inbox overfloweth with immigrants. Let me know when our outbox starts growing. I've not seen it in my (slightly shorter) lifetime.
Things suck worse elsewhere. That doesn't mean we're okay.
quote:
We have the best universities in the world.
Which the middle class can no longer afford to go to, and the school system below the university level is circling the drain in a lot of places, especially in urban areas.
quote:
We give more aid (and soldiers for that matter) than any other country on earth.
Other countries don't always want our soldiers, and we don't give the most foreign aid per capita.
quote:
Democrats need to stop grousing so damn much and get their shit together enough to vote their boy in. Especially one's with Obama as a last name.
The Democrats' organizational skills traditionally suck harder than a Hoover. But Obama's team has done a masterful job, and I hope to God they don't fuck it up in the next 10 weeks.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
Classic. Case study in why you LOSE. "You" being democrats.
Republicans almost NEVER say such things on the stump and we the people don't want to hear negative bullshit like that about our country. Hell even I don't want to hear it, and I'm voting for your boy!
You've been warned!
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
I'm not advising that the Democrats hire me as a speechwriter!
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
...we the people don't want to hear negative bullshit like that about our country.
"We the people"? *snort* We the people sit and watch TV and grouse about shit on forums, have absolutely no effect on the political process and mostly don't even bother to vote. (who cares? it doesn't make any difference)
My people get off their asses, attend caucuses, become elected delegates, volunteer at fundraisers, work phone lines and care enough to DO something more than shoot their faces off.
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--Formerly: Gort--
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
Speak for yourself. There are 120 million reasons you are wrong (2004 numbers of voters).
And....
I was one of them.
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I'm not advising that the Democrats hire me as a speechwriter!
Good thing.
But that really is a cop out. Isn't it?
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Grits
Compassionate fundamentalist
# 4169
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Presleyterian:
quote:
Grits wrote: As a rule, I don't care for women speakers. Most of them are just not very genuine.
This doesn't come as a surprise, given that Grits has said it before. But when does an innocuous expression of personal opinion cross the line into a malignant expression of personal prejudice?
Number one, I hardly think my opinions could ever be considered "malignant", especially here on the Ship, where I have about zero influence.
Secondly, it really isn't personal prejudice. For me and my experience, it's fact. I think many women who find themselves in positions that require public speaking are just not suited to it and are not self-confident and self-aware enough to be as effective and persuasive as they want to be. No amount of education can make you a charismatic speaker.
As I have also said before (for those who are keeping track), the Democrats may have the best product for the country, but they've got to be able to sell it.
Now... let's talk about Hillary. I actually didn't mind her speech tonight, and I loved the "Sisterhood of the Traveling Pantsuits". Tres clever and oh, so au courant. For the most part, I think she really meant what she said. I would have liked more about Barack and less about Hillary, and some might read something into that. It's like she couldn't really refer to much as a recommendation for him, other than the fact that he's a Democrat. Oh, well, if she convinced some of her disgruntled supporters to vote for Obama, she did her job.
And I agree that the Obama girls seem to be very special young ladies. They are at the perfect age to really be enjoying all this.
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Lord, fill my mouth with worthwhile stuff, and shut it when I've said enough. Amen.
Posts: 8419 | From: Nashville, TN | Registered: Feb 2003
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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
O
I don't see McCains people en masse saying "I wanted Romney and screw McCain". .
My God (pun intended), how could they get so worked about someone like Romney??? He is not someone who stirs passion in people.
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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"
Posts: 2247 | From: Sacramento, California | Registered: Apr 2003
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443
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Posted
Pastor Huckabee, for one, seems to to be very passionate about Mr. Romney - passionate, that is, in his dislike of the man. I suppose the good reverend would never allow it to turn into passionate hatred however.
Greta
Posts: 3677 | Registered: Jun 2001
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by SeraphimSarov:
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
O
I don't see McCains people en masse saying "I wanted Romney and screw McCain". .
My God (pun intended), how could they get so worked about someone like Romney??? He is not someone who stirs passion in people.
I could say much the same for Hillary actually. I get why they got worked up over her husband, but not really her.
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Hillary was magnificent tonight! One of the pundits said that Eleanor Roosevelt would be proud--pretty cool, because H took ER as a role model during rough times in the White House.
![[Overused]](graemlins/notworthy.gif)
Michelle was great Monday night--did a good job of changing her image, too. The kids were wonderful. Barack showed great patience with his younger daughter, and her sister was smart enough to grab the microphone away!
As to Republicans not ever saying the kinds of things the Dems do...that's because it's openly the party of the rich and powerful, who have a vested interest in the status quo. Unfortunately, both parties are infected by greed and power-grabbing. We need to find a way to at least restrain some of that. The Dems generally have the right goals, the Greens moreso...but the two-party system is too entrenched for the Greens or any other minor party to get very far.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
Speak for yourself. There are 120 million reasons you are wrong (2004 numbers of voters).
And....
I was one of them.
Well, bully for you. What else have you done for "We the people" besides advocate for top cynic award?
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--Formerly: Gort--
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Unfortunately, both parties are infected by greed and power-grabbing. We need to find a way to at least restrain some of that. The Dems generally have the right goals, the Greens moreso...but the two-party system is too entrenched for the Greens or any other minor party to get very far.
I gotta say that both parties have me thoroughly fed up. I just can't deal with the Republicans having more years of the same shit.
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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Mad Geo
Ship's navel gazer
# 2939
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
quote:
Originally posted by Mad Geo:
Speak for yourself. There are 120 million reasons you are wrong (2004 numbers of voters).
And....
I was one of them.
Well, bully for you. What else have you done for "We the people" besides advocate for top cynic award?
Not that it is your business, but I have worked in (mostly local) elections, written my congress people over various issues, support three different lobbyists the NRA, ACLU, and the EFF. Oh and I vote, like 120 million other people.
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Diax's Rake - "Never believe a thing simply because you want it to be true"
Posts: 11730 | From: People's Republic of SoCal | Registered: Jun 2002
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Grits:
quote:
Originally posted by Presleyterian:
quote:
Grits wrote: As a rule, I don't care for women speakers. Most of them are just not very genuine.
This doesn't come as a surprise, given that Grits has said it before. But when does an innocuous expression of personal opinion cross the line into a malignant expression of personal prejudice?
Number one, I hardly think my opinions could ever be considered "malignant", especially here on the Ship, where I have about zero influence.
Whether or not someone has influence has no bearing on whether an opinion they hold is malignant. Outside of cancer wards, "malignant" is simply a very strong way to say "bad."
quote:
Secondly, it really isn't personal prejudice. For me and my experience, it's fact. I think many women who find themselves in positions that require public speaking are just not suited to it and are not self-confident and self-aware enough to be as effective and persuasive as they want to be. No amount of education can make you a charismatic speaker.
The thing is, you present no facts, just another unsupported claim. So it still sounds like nothing but prejudice.
quote:
Now... let's talk about Hillary. I actually didn't mind her speech tonight, and I loved the "Sisterhood of the Traveling Pantsuits". Tres clever and oh, so au courant. For the most part, I think she really meant what she said. I would have liked more about Barack and less about Hillary, and some might read something into that. It's like she couldn't really refer to much as a recommendation for him, other than the fact that he's a Democrat. Oh, well, if she convinced some of her disgruntled supporters to vote for Obama, she did her job.
I think the best part was when she asked her supporters, "Were you in this just for me? Or were you in it for ..." that Marine, the woman with cancer, etc. Because that really is the point, and because it was remarkably self-less (by Clintonian standards, at any rate). A couple of the PBS pundits wanted her to somehow take back the things she said during the primary campaign, but I think that would have been false and disingenuous. She said what she said, and she can't go back now and say she didn't mean it. She made the case for seeing the big picture, and she did it in what was probably the best speech she ever gave.
And I loved the bright orange pantsuit. Sometimes I envy men the bland non-choices of clothing they have, but not last night. That electric orange up against the blue backdrop was fabulous.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Outside of cancer wards, "malignant" is simply a very strong way to say "bad."
Sorry to pick nits, but it says a lot more than bad. M-W says "b*: evil in nature, influence, or effect : injurious c: passionately and relentlessly malevolent : aggressively malicious".
*(I started with "b" because the "a" definition was marked as "obsolete")
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I think the best part was when she asked her supporters, "Were you in this just for me? Or were you in it for ..." that Marine, the woman with cancer, etc. Because that really is the point, and because it was remarkably self-less (by Clintonian standards, at any rate). A couple of the PBS pundits wanted her to somehow take back the things she said during the primary campaign, but I think that would have been false and disingenuous. She said what she said, and she can't go back now and say she didn't mean it. She made the case for seeing the big picture, and she did it in what was probably the best speech she ever gave.
In the end, she did give concrete reasons to elect Barack Obama, but not necessarily because he is Barack Obama. Which is fair enough, I suppose. She believes she would be the better candidate; she hasn't changed her mind. She did mention Obama's community organizing and some other things he has done, but, as was remarked, she could almost have said a lot of the same things about any of the other Democratic candidates in this or any other year.
I agree a teensy-weensy bit with the commentator you site if only for the reason he gave. Probably starting today, McCain is going to start running ads with Hilary Clinton up there saying 'I have the experience, John McCain has the experience....' etc. It would be nice to have a sound bite to put in an ad directly rebutting that.
But in the end, Clinton's job was not to win over the general voter, but to win over her supporters - who McCain is aggressively courting. In that, she appears to have done extremely well among the convention goers. How it will play out amongst her core supporters nationally remains to be seen, but as an Obama supporter, I'm hopeful.
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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The Atheist
Arrogant Bastard
# 12067
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Posted
Pigeons come home to roost.
Far too late for the Dems.
Even from this far away, it seems clear that USA will not vote a black man to the White House.
Congress polls, a straight R vs D race, shows a whopping 10% lead for the Dems, largely unchanged during the past six months, while Obama vs McCain is a statistical dead heat, with all the momentum on McCain, who looks as though he's due to take the lead sometime next month.
I seriously advise any punters wanting to make a quid of the US election to get on McCain now, as the odds are totally out of touch with reality.
Given that I publicly stated in many places a year ago that a black man would not win the presidency, I have a great case of the "I told you sos", but it's more than mildly tempered by the expectation that McCain will start new war/s, probably against the Russkies, if his comments on Georgia are anything to go by.
How fuckin' stoopid are the Democrats?
The thought of having a black or woman candidate was brilliant from a liberal perspective, but a good dose of reality should have carried the day, saving the liberal favourite for Veep. I swear the Dems don't really want the presidency.
Posts: 2044 | From: Auckland | Registered: Nov 2006
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
Who the hell is Tracey Barnett and what exactly qualifies her to opine about Americans' racism?
What she's talking about is actually called the Bradley Effect, and the myth that it's in operation in this campaign has been nicely debunked by someone who's done more than taken a quick glance at the national polls (which mean precisely squat).
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Barnabas62
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# 9110
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Posted
I guess we'll see. If Hillary had won, no doubt some would be arguing that there would be a "Bradley effect" there. Just a different one.
With RuthW on the polling evidence. FWIW.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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saysay
Ship's Praying Mantis
# 6645
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by The Atheist:
How fuckin' stoopid are the Democrats?
The thought of having a black or woman candidate was brilliant from a liberal perspective, but a good dose of reality should have carried the day, saving the liberal favourite for Veep. I swear the Dems don't really want the presidency.
The election is still a ways off so I wouldn't count your money yet.
But I'm curious who you, in your infinite wisdom and understanding of American society, would have chosen as the nominee.
The man who was having an adulterous affair?
The woman who stirs up blind irrational hatred in a not insignificant number of people?
The one prone to uber-liberal rants who also happens to have seen a UFO?
I'm actually pro-Obama and don't mean to imply that he got the nomination because he was the least bad candidate, but if you're going to berate us for being stupid, at least tell us what the smart move would have been.
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I'll tell you all about it when I see you again"
"'Oh sweet baby purple Jesus' - that's a direct quote from a 9 year old - shoutout to purple Jesus."
Posts: 2943 | From: The Wire | Registered: May 2004
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The Atheist
Arrogant Bastard
# 12067
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Who the hell is Tracey Barnett and what exactly qualifies her to opine about Americans' racism?
Dunno about her qualifications, but she's a fairly good journalist with an ability to get to the seat of the matter quite nicely.
More here from her
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
What she's talking about is actually called the Bradley Effect, and the myth that it's in operation in this campaign has been nicely debunked by someone who's done more than taken a quick glance at the national polls (which mean precisely squat).
From your own link:
exit polls conducted on the day of the election did substantially overstate Barack Obama's margins throughout the primaries
That seemed to be far more the actual point made than the Bradley effect.
quote:
Originally posted by saysay:
But I'm curious who you, in your infinite wisdom and understanding of American society, would have chosen as the nominee.
Al Gore, Wesley Clark... several others. The main point was to pick a winner, rather than a loser. Why have the Dems not been grooming/searching for someone for four years?
quote:
Originally posted by saysay:
The one prone to uber-liberal rants who also happens to have seen a UFO?
You've picked the wrong guy here. While I think people who have seen UFOs need a reality check, I understand both current presidential candidates believe the entire universe is run by some dead Jew and his father, the ghost-thing, all for the benefit of his chosen people - humans. I lay a lot bigger odds on us finding aliens before the sky-daddy.
quote:
Originally posted by saysay:
I'm actually pro-Obama and don't mean to imply that he got the nomination because he was the least bad candidate, but if you're going to berate us for being stupid, at least tell us what the smart move would have been.
I'm one of the other problems Obama has; non-voting, international fans. Quite why some Americans choose to be anti-Obama simply because he appeals to the international community as someone who isn't a rabid warmongering imbecile completely escapes me. I also wonder whether the celebrity endorsements don't play into McCain's hands a little - that numb slut Madonna a case in point.
I hope it's just my cynicism which makes me think he's a sure loser, because I do think this next election will be an important one. We sit in the midst of a "war on terror", twin wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, an array of people queueing up to have the next crack at Uncle Sam - Iran, Russia, North Korea (not so much lately) - and Pakistan about to get a total brain-fart as President.
At least I guess Mac's answer might just be to nuke the fuckin' lot of them (the Onion has some great McCain stuff!) and solve the problem once and for all. Darwin's ultimate resolution? Maybe I should be happy about it.
Maybe I'm seeing it all wrong, but beating McCain should have been as easy as ABC - he's another idiot, for chrissake! His gaffes are even Bush-like in their frequency and scope, he's older than dirt and his party has taken USA to the brink of ruin. Beating him was as hard as picking a credible candidate.
By making a choice come down to a woman or a black bloke, I think the Dems loaded their own dice to lose. Did they think it was such a dead cert that they let their liberality overrule reality?
Posts: 2044 | From: Auckland | Registered: Nov 2006
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Swish
Shipmate
# 8566
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Posted
Bill's doing a nice line in attack dog at the moment - making me look forward to Biden. Actually, despite really supporting Obama, Bill definitely sounded more enthusiastic talking about Biden. Not too surprising I guess.
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Sorry Ted. I was concentrating too hard on looking holy.
Posts: 114 | From: Sheffield | Registered: Sep 2004
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by The Atheist:
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
What she's talking about is actually called the Bradley Effect, and the myth that it's in operation in this campaign has been nicely debunked by someone who's done more than taken a quick glance at the national polls (which mean precisely squat).
From your own link:
exit polls conducted on the day of the election did substantially overstate Barack Obama's margins throughout the primaries
That seemed to be far more the actual point made than the Bradley effect.
Nope, it's not. Please read the info at that link more carefully:
quote:
3. Confusing Exit Polls with pre-Election Polls. Unlike the normal, pre-election polls, exit polls conducted on the day of the election did substantially overstate Barack Obama's margins throughout the primaries. This is something to keep in mind at about 5 PM on November 4, when Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty begin to leak exit poll results. It is not anything to worry about now, when we are trying to forecast the outcome from pre-election polling.
Exit polls are indeed not very reliable for all sorts of reasons, but when we're trying to figure out who will win the presidential election, we're not talking about exit polls now, obviously, as they can't be done until people start voting. What we're talking about now is polls of registered voters and polls of likely voters, which fivethirtyeight.com studies and weights according to reliability and averages, state by state. Their current reading of tne polls says that we were voting today, Obama would take 286.5 electoral votes and McCain 251.5 (270 are needed to win).
quote:
Originally posted by saysay:
Al Gore, Wesley Clark... several others. The main point was to pick a winner, rather than a loser. Why have the Dems not been grooming/searching for someone for four years?
Al Gore is a proven loser. Wesley Clark has never been elected to public office. So how exactly are they winners?
And about grooming ... it's a contested election, not something you get groomed for and appointed to. The party can push resources at people they like -- and they do that a lot -- but it comes down to who can appeal to the voters.
quote:
You've picked the wrong guy here. While I think people who have seen UFOs need a reality check, I understand both current presidential candidates believe the entire universe is run by some dead Jew and his father, the ghost-thing, all for the benefit of his chosen people - humans. I lay a lot bigger odds on us finding aliens before the sky-daddy.
Leaving aside the gratuitous insults...
The American electorate is mostly Christian, so they don't really have a problem with the candidates being Christians.
quote:
By making a choice come down to a woman or a black bloke, I think the Dems loaded their own dice to lose. Did they think it was such a dead cert that they let their liberality overrule reality?
Why are you so sure that the American electorate is so chauvinist and racist?
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
Swish: Are you watching the Democratic Convention from Sheffield? Seriously? I tip my political junkie hat to you!
Bill did a good job, I think, and he came right out and said Obama is ready to be POTUS. And he didn't spend the whole time tooting his own horn, which has to have been a huge temptation.
ETA: And Kerry comes out hitting! Why couldn't he have done that four years ago???
[ 28. August 2008, 01:47: Message edited by: RuthW ]
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Al Gore is a proven loser....
Hope this isn't DH territory, but Al Gore did not lose the 2000 election. All he lost was the Supreme Court election.
![[Mad]](angryfire.gif)
Not to mention winning a Nobel Peace Prize and an Oscar. I don't think I'd call him a proven loser.
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
OK, yeah, and God knows I've spent enough time ranting about that. But he didn't win his own state! He wuz robbed in 2000, no doubt about it, but if he could have taken Tennessee, we wouldn't have had the election debacle (not to mention the nightmare of the Bush administration that followed).
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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