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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
ToujoursDan

Ship's prole
# 10578

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Crazy Canadian question here. I know there is a pretty active chapter of Democrats Abroad in Canada.

How are overseas US votes counted in the electoral college? Do they go by last residence in the US?

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Facebook link: http://www.facebook.com/toujoursdan

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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Yeah, pretty much. They're included in the count for whichever state in which they're registered to vote, which is typically the last state they lived in.
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TheEzrahite17
Apprentice
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It looks like the post-debate spin has started before the debate. According to an ad in the Wall street Journal, McCain's already won the debate:

WSJ Ad

"Another ad spotted by our eagle-eyed observer featured a quote from McCain campaign manager Rick Davis declaring: "McCain won the debate-- hands down."

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Nicolemr
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Ah shoot, I was just gonna' post that about McCain claiming he won the debate already.

Some interesting information anyway.

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Josephine

Orthodox Belle
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A handy source of info on Palin, courtesy The Daily Source.

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The Atheist
Arrogant Bastard
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quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
Time zones have nothing to do with it. You're guilty of not reading the thread.

Mea culpa. Sometimes I miss a whole page of this thread.

quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemrw:
I'm sort of sort of surprised that the British folks on this thread haven't said anything about this:

Team Obama flies to the UK in pursuit of crucial votes
Anyone have any thoughts?

Wiki claims that there are a couple of hundred thousand. Not very many in a vote of 100m?
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Golden Key
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Re McCain's pre-"win" ad:

If the ad was created when he planned to skip the debate, then he was following a strategy from the movie "War Games": "The only winning move is not to play".
[Biased]

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Pigwidgeon

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quote:
Originally posted by TheEzrahite17:
It looks like the post-debate spin has started before the debate. According to an ad in the Wall street Journal, McCain's already won the debate:
WSJ Ad

Why doesn't he just announce that he's won the election?

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
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Alfred E. Neuman

What? Me worry?
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Break out the funny hats and party favors! 15 minutes to "debate" time! Someone pass me a cold one.

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--Formerly: Gort--

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moron
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Burp.

McCain is hopping around grimacing behind a forced smile and Obama is edging toward the kind of 'sigh' that arguably cost Gore the election.

And WHY isn't Jim Lehrer debating instead of moderating.

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chukovsky

Ship's toddler
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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
And WHY isn't Jim Lehrer debating instead of moderating.

We're wondering that, too. the BBC website is suggesting two of its more bulldogish interviewers.

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This space left intentionally blank. Do not write on both sides of the paper at once.

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Alfred E. Neuman

What? Me worry?
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Obama snapping his fingers twice:
"Drop the third person references and look me in the eye, you coward!"

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--Formerly: Gort--

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mousethief

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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
And WHY isn't Jim Lehrer debating instead of moderating.

Because he's not one of the debaters, he's the moderator? What am I missing here?

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
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So, who won?

I think Obama passed the "Commander in Chief test," which was probably the main thing he had to do. I don't think there were any good quotes for the media, though, and that's what usually really matters in these things. So I'd call it a draw.

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basso

Ship’s Crypt Keeper
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Yeah, I'd agree that it was a draw.

No memorable lines at all. It was weird watching McCain there for 90 minutes without looking at his opponent once that I noticed.

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Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
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Not that I like him anyway, though eight years ago I would have voted for him over anyone, but McCain kinda came off as a jerk.

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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.

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Alfred E. Neuman

What? Me worry?
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Exactly, Basso. The arrogant bastard completely ignored Obama's presence in spite of Lehrer's attempts to make him engage directly. I could have reached through the screen and slapped McCain silly. He even avoided looking at Obama when the two of them and their wives were shaking hands. Total disrespect for his opponent. Obama missed his first chance to expose McCain for the bloated gasbag he is.

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--Formerly: Gort--

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
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quote:
Originally posted by Erin:
Not that I like him anyway, though eight years ago I would have voted for him over anyone, but McCain kinda came off as a jerk.

If the independents see it this way, then Obama won.

ETA: Just found this on mediacurves.com: independents think Obama won every segment of the debate. [Smile]

[ 27. September 2008, 03:37: Message edited by: RuthW ]

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Mamacita

Lakefront liberal
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quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
Someone pass me a cold one.

[Tangent alert] Idea for a new drinking game which occured to me during the debate: You get to chug whenever a Republican invokes General Petraeus. I swear, Petraeus is Bush's mantra and has completely become McCain's as well. Memo to civilian leaders: military leaders do not make foreign policy, or at least they aren't supposed to.

I liked the "bracelet wars" section of the debate. After McCain related his familiar story about wearing a bracelet for a dead soldier whose mother begged that her son "not die in vain," Obama said that he wore a bracelet for a mother who asked him to ensure that no other mother should have to grieve as she did -- and that no soldier's sacrifice is in vain. I'm really sick of the argument that we have to keep prolonging this war in order to avenge our already-dead. So, points to Obama on that one.

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Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world’s grief. Do justly, now. Love mercy, now. Walk humbly, now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.

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Joykins
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# 5820

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quote:
Originally posted by Mamacita:
quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
Someone pass me a cold one.

[Tangent alert] Idea for a new drinking game which occured to me during the debate: You get to chug whenever a Republican invokes General Petraeus.
I drank every time McCain said "my friends" and "have no doubt."

I was out cold about 20 minutes in.

Tequila will do that though.

[ 27. September 2008, 05:59: Message edited by: Joykins ]

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Anglican_Brat
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quote:
Originally posted by Mamacita:
quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
Someone pass me a cold one.

[Tangent alert] Idea for a new drinking game which occured to me during the debate: You get to chug whenever a Republican invokes General Petraeus. I swear, Petraeus is Bush's mantra and has completely become McCain's as well. Memo to civilian leaders: military leaders do not make foreign policy, or at least they aren't supposed to.

I liked the "bracelet wars" section of the debate. After McCain related his familiar story about wearing a bracelet for a dead soldier whose mother begged that her son "not die in vain," Obama said that he wore a bracelet for a mother who asked him to ensure that no other mother should have to grieve as she did -- and that no soldier's sacrifice is in vain. I'm really sick of the argument that we have to keep prolonging this war in order to avenge our already-dead. So, points to Obama on that one.

I actually thought that was a dirty trick on both sides. I guess McCain should get most of the blame for at least starting it. No one wants their dead children to be a political prop. A pox on both their houses.

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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Are there any UK accessible options to view the debate ?

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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Here is a fact check on the debate from the BBC.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
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Found it !

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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moron
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The older I get the more I think I understand McCain's attitude toward Obama. Here you've lived through some ugly stuff and spent all these years in government service developing at least something of a deserved reputation for crossing party lines to build consensus, then all of a sudden there's this glib young upstart who is comparably very limited in experience who has managed to get real traction in the presidential race.

So I can understand if McCain is tense and terse towards Obama. I feel the same way when someone with a comparable age and experience differential presumes to tell me how to do things: I'm willing to listen but they better defer a bit to my experience.

Anyway, IMO Obama scored some points when right at the end he decided to stop wrangling and asked Lehrer to ask his last question: intangibly, something about the way he handled that resonated.

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
all of a sudden there's this glib young upstart

It says something about the way politicians are viewed in the US versus the UK that a 47-year old can be described as a "young upstart".

We don't seem to care nearly as much about experience as you - Palin's lack of it is barely an issue here, and few people would worry if Obama's experience is legislative rather than executive. Perhaps it's down to having a permanent civil service in the UK? We're OK with politicians learning on the job - at least until we're sick of them, then they get blamed for everything.

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Nicolemr
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# 28

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Sadly I was unable to watch the debate, for reasons of technology. But the vibe I've been picking up, here and other places in print and on-line, is that it was close to a tie, with a slight edge to Obama.

btw, here's something I thought people in an international site like the ship would appreciate:

If the world could vote

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Hiro's Leap

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# 12470

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quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemrw:
If the world could vote

There's definitely a biased sample here since it gives Obama 81.8% of the US vote. The Daily Telegraph did a similar poll, and the results showed:
quote:
Mr Obama, the only consistent opponent of the Iraq war in the race for the presidency, commands a clear lead. He is especially popular in Italy, where a remarkable 70 per cent would vote for him if they could.

In France, historically the European country with the strongest anti-American sentiment, 65 per cent would back Mr Obama. In Germany, the Democratic Senator would get 67 per cent of the vote - while Mr McCain would receive a derisory six per cent.

Mr Obama appears to have made less of an impact in Britain than elsewhere in Europe. A relatively modest 49 per cent of Britons would vote for him, while 14 per cent would back Mr McCain - twice the totals favouring the Republican candidate in Germany or France.


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tclune
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quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemrw:
Sadly I was unable to watch the debate, for reasons of technology. But the vibe I've been picking up, here and other places in print and on-line, is that it was close to a tie, with a slight edge to Obama.

I thought that, on the issues, it was a dead heat. I like Obama better, but I did before the debate. My guess is that folks who favored McCain before the debate were happy with his performance, too.

On the intangibles, I felt that McCain performed better than I thought that he would. He's really not at home in these kinds of exchanges, and he did a very polished job on the facts.

Like mjg, there were a couple of places where I thought that Obama hit just the right tone. Mjg mentioned when Obama said, "OK, let's move on to the last question" (or some such), and it seemed like a natural thing for him to have said, and it seemed like he was the one who was the leader.

I also was struck by, when McCain was making some snarky comment about Obama, Obama laughed. McCain heard him, and was briefly pulled up short. McCain appeared to appreciate the ability of Obama to laugh at the characterization of himself, but didn't want to acknowledge the whole dynamic. It made an impression because it demonstrated Obama being able to rise above a situation in a way that took his opponent with him, instead of by vanquishing him. It was kind of a grace note in the debate.

Other than those small things, I thought it was a pretty even event.

--Tom Clune

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This space left blank intentionally.

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Nicolemr
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# 28

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Hiro's Leap, well of course it's biased. It's totally self-selected for one thing. But I still think people will find it interesting, which was all I said.

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemrw:
Hiro's Leap, well of course it's biased. It's totally self-selected for one thing. But I still think people will find it interesting, which was all I said.

It was certainly interesting - for one thing, I hadn't realised that Russians are relatively keen on McCain. I was just suggesting a healthy pinch of salt with the exact results, that's all.
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Josephine

Orthodox Belle
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quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
Other than those small things, I thought it was a pretty even event.

I think that, for Obama, the small things were huge.

The elephant in the room with Obama, always, is his race. There are still a lot of people who aren't totally comfortable voting for a black man -- and I suspect that the number who admit it is a fraction of the real number.

I think that Obama hit exactly the right note for those people. Not the out-and-out racists who would never vote for a black under any circumstances. But the ones who know what's right, and maybe feel a little bit of shame about their own residual racism, and need someone to appeal to their better selves -- but who just might grab a non-racist excuse to go with their racist impulses, if one were offered to them ....

I think there are a lot of folks in that position, and I think to win, Obama has to appeal to them.

The folks who are complaining that they didn't see enough passion from him, that he didn't go on the attack, don't understand how an Angry Black Man would come across to these voters and potential voters. He can't scare them off. He needs to reassure them that he's not one of "those" blacks.

I think he did it.

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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!

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New Yorker
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I was on a plane and the tv reception was iffy. So I only saw the news summaries. It seems to me that the Obama supporters think he won and the McCain supporters thought he won. I don't know that the debate changed anything. Of course, in this race even a slight change could mean a good deal!
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HenryT

Canadian Anglican
# 3722

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I thought McCain looked tired by the end.

ABC aired an interesting double bio/interview just before, showing a fair bit of historical Obama footage (he looked just like Clarence Williams in "The Mod Squad", at one time.) For example, he was the guy in the back of the room as the mothers from South Side Chicago made their demands.

No earthshattering revelations for either one.

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"Perhaps an invincible attachment to the dearest rights of man may, in these refined, enlightened days, be deemed old-fashioned" P. Henry, 1788

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
I was on a plane and the tv reception was iffy. So I only saw the news summaries. It seems to me that the Obama supporters think he won and the McCain supporters thought he won.

Of course who the debate matters for are the independents, undecideds or could-still-change-their-mindses.

Happy to see you landed safely. [Smile]

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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moron
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# 206

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quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
There are still a lot of people who aren't totally comfortable voting for a black man -- and I suspect that the number who admit it is a fraction of the real number.

I've heard it suggested by some pundits this variable will require Obama to be up by several polling points on election day in order to win: apparently repubs don't have a lock on racism. But I still think it's going to come down to his comparative 'leftism' and inexperience.

Like I said earlier, there's a part of me that wants to see him win just to see if he can do half the stuff he believes he can. I hate to sell anyone short and IMNSHO he does demonstrate a maturity beyond his years, and some ability to elevate the political debate.


If he just weren't the Anti-Christ. [Razz]

Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Alfred E. Neuman

What? Me worry?
# 6855

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quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
I think that, for Obama, the small things were huge...

Yes, as always, engaging, intelligent, alert, friendly and (unlike McCain) was able to "reach across the aisle" and announce agreement with several of his opponent's positions. I've watched a split-screen compilation of both candidates as Obama mentioned each subject and McCain remained consistently stoney-faced, eyes flicking left, right, down -- left, right, down. Only once, when Obama, facing McCain, began a statement with "John..." did McCain glance sideways at Obama for a split second then quickly return to staring at his notes.

I can't help the suspicion McCain is a creeping psychotic who's been sedated. The clinched jaw, twitching shifty eyes, barely concealed anger disguised with his grimace of a smile. He reminds me of Nixon under fire. McCain's demeanor during the debate suggests he must demonize his opponent and treat them as an enemy. This man is still at War and sees all conflict in terms of winning or losing.

And what's with the McCain's circus in Washington this week? A bald-faced, attention-getting waste of time. A few of his fellow Republicans mentioned he wasn't helping the financial bail-out discussions but distracting everyone from serious talks. McCain's comically dramatic "suspension" of his campaign and suggestion the debate would be canceled only added to the charade.

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--Formerly: Gort--

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RooK

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In terms of a "debate", I'd agree that there was no victory to be claimed.

However, as a re-introduction of the candidates, I think it did help remind us of who these two people are now.

McCain was a great senator, and is probably one of the reasons why he focused on his past reputation so much. But his stances in the debate mostly just highlighted that the things that made him a great senator are the same ones that prevented him from being a successful Republican candidate - and that's all over now. Now he toes the military/oil-backed line. I think he is indeed ready to be President today - pretty much exactly filling the hole Dubya would leave. He would undoubtedly be more articulate, knowledgeable, and likable - but the overall direction of the US would be the same.

Obama is a smart and considered representative of American innovation. Basically, I agree with him that the United States need a change of direction, and I think that he would attempt it with the sort of care and thoughtfulness that would be needed. His method of starting from basic principles and extrapolating to specific actions is very appealing to me, and a desperately welcomed change from message-focused catch-phrases that dumb down everything to a polarized assertion.

It seems clear to me that on of these options is far more advantageous to the United States, both in terms of economic health and moral direction. But, since Americans tend to vote more for personal affiliation than group benefit, it will be interesting to see which candidate better represents the majority of Americans. Are they more like an out-of-date corpse-like puppet, or are they forward-thinking half-breed dreamers?

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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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I’m the “friend” Nicolemrw mentioned in her earlier post. The FBI did indeed raid my house recently. I wasn’t home at the time so the account that follows comes with the proviso that all information provided is second-hand, coming from either my housemate’s account or the FBI affidavit.

My housemate, xxxx, is a freelance photographer who specializes in photographing demonstrations and activists. She covers a wide variety of subjects, from Neo-Nazis and Freepers to environmentalists and anti-globalization activists. At any rate, I recently got a call from xxxx’s teenaged son, yyyy, saying that the FBI was at the house and that his mother had been taken away. Naturally I absented myself from work and hurried home to ascertain what was going on. The house had, of course, been ransacked and there was no sign of xxxx. There was, however, a copy of the search warrant, an affidavit justifying said warrant, and a list of things that had been confiscated. The affidavit asserted that she was present at an action where a hotel was smoke-bombed (which she was) and that she had information that could identify the masked perpetrators (which she doesn’t). Both of her computers were missing, as was yyyy’s, as well as several cameras, most data recording devices, and xxxx’s boots. Interestingly they didn't take MY computer, which is how I'm able to post this. While I was paging through the affidavit and trying to figure out how to track down xxxx the FBI returned with her. She had been interrogate with such questions as “what kind of American are you?” and “what do you think of this country?”, as well as getting a lecture on capitalism from one of the agents. They seemed convinced that she knew the identities of the smoke-bombers and threatened her with arrest unless she cooperated. She was also told that the whole matter would be cleared up right away if she would act as an informant in the future. The idea of the Feds paging through her photos trying to identify activists just reminded me of The Unbearable Lightness of Being, where Tereza’s photos are minutely examined by Soviet officials after the Prague Spring has been crushed. I’m not saying this is anything like a similar scale, but the imagery struck me.

There seems to be a serious, coordinated effort going on right now by Federal law enforcement to “crack down” on independent media, especially anyone considered “leftist”. A lot of xxxx’s friends in independent media have been scrutinized by law enforcement at various levels lately, mostly starting around the time of the Republican National Convention, though the affidavit asserts that xxxx (and I) have been under surveillance since at least May.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
She had been interrogate with such questions as “what kind of American are you?” and “what do you think of this country?”, as well as getting a lecture on capitalism from one of the agents. They seemed convinced that she knew the identities of the smoke-bombers and threatened her with arrest unless she cooperated. She was also told that the whole matter would be cleared up right away if she would act as an informant in the future.

So the funeral mass for the Fourth Amendment is scheduled for when?
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
So the funeral mass for the Fourth Amendment is scheduled for when?

The Fourth Amendment was a lifelong secularist. It requested no mass.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28

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Cro, you forgot to mention that they asked her how she could have both che shirts and Ayn Rand books. I thought that was amusing. In a horrific way.

BTW, check out my post on the prayer thread in All Saints, then drop me a line. I need sympathy, and I've forgotten what your home addy is now.

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
So the funeral mass for the Fourth Amendment is scheduled for when?

The Fourth Amendment was a lifelong secularist. It requested no mass.
Okay, but we should at least send flowers.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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Sounds like the same school of political thought that led the security forces to bug Quaker meetings cos they were anti-war - apparently having not processed that the objections were on the grounds of pacifism ...

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
moron
Shipmate
# 206

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As an aside, one of the things that's gratifying to me about this thread is how many relatively low post count low sign up number individuals have contributed.

I'm honoured.

Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Alfred E. Neuman

What? Me worry?
# 6855

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Crœsos, was your housemate informed of her Miranda rights and given an opportunity to call a lawyer? You mentioned the house was "ransacked". Do you mean it was made a complete mess as often happens in police searches? Do you have photos you could share?

Also, has all of the equipment confiscated been returned? If so, is it unharmed? Is your roommate required to return for further questioning? What information has the FBI supplied regarding resolution of her case? Are any charges forthcoming?

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--Formerly: Gort--

Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28

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Ruth, sending flowers or paying any attention at all will just get you put up against the wall with the rest of the unAmericans when the crackdown comes.

And after all, only bad people are ever investigated by the FBI, right? [Roll Eyes]

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Alfred E. Neuman

What? Me worry?
# 6855

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quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
...I'm honoured.

This isn't YOUR thread, mjg. Get off your high horse.

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--Formerly: Gort--

Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemrw:
And after all, only bad people are ever investigated by the FBI, right? [Roll Eyes]

Hey, don't be such a smartass. It's kept us safe since 9/11 hasn't it?

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
Crœsos, was your housemate informed of her Miranda rights and given an opportunity to call a lawyer? You mentioned the house was "ransacked". Do you mean it was made a complete mess as often happens in police searches? Do you have photos you could share?

Also, has all of the equipment confiscated been returned? If so, is it unharmed? Is your roommate required to return for further questioning? What information has the FBI supplied regarding resolution of her case? Are any charges forthcoming?

Since xxxx was not arrested and only wanted for questioning she wasn't Mirandized and didn't have a lawyer. Since none of her stuff has been returned yet, she's got a lawyer now to hopefully expedite the process. Considering that they've got her external hard drive and all back-ups of over three years of work (7,000+ photos) she considers this her first priority.

As for the quality of the ransacking, I'm afraid I don't have much of a basis of comparison. I guess I'd characterize it as more "excessively messied" than "trashed". Closets were emptied, boxes of childhood photographs were spilled on the floor, etc., but nothing was broken.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged



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