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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28
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Posted
quote:
Hey, don't be such a smartass. It's kept us safe since 9/11 hasn't it?
So New Yorker tells us.
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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!
Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemrw:
quote:
Hey, don't be such a smartass. It's kept us safe since 9/11 hasn't it?
So New Yorker tells us.
Unless you count the Anthrax Attacks (which seem to have vanished down the memory hole) or anytime some yahoo tries to torch a Women's Clinic. But of course domestic terrorism isn't real terrorism.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
What happened to Senator John McCarthy in the end ?
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
What happened to Senator John McCarthy in the end ?
After being censured by his fellow Senators he became a pariah, ignored by colleagues and press alike. He eventually drank himself in to an early grave after having gambled away at the track most of the money sent to him by private contributors to "fight communism".
A true role-model for modern conservatives.
[ 27. September 2008, 20:43: Message edited by: Crœsos ]
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28
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Posted
quote:
What happened to Senator John McCarthy in the end ?
At long last, he had no sense of decency.
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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!
Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
He eventually drank himself in to an early grave after having gambled away at the track most of the money sent to him by private contributors to "fight communism".
You say that like it's a bad thing.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
I've just been listening to Joe Biden's little post-debate interview with Keith Olbermann on Countdown last night, and I have to say, dude knows how to spin! Honestly, it was a pleasure to see someone who knows his job do it so well. Thursday should be fun.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
Since xxxx was not arrested and only wanted for questioning she wasn't Mirandized and didn't have a lawyer. Since none of her stuff has been returned yet, she's got a lawyer now to hopefully expedite the process. Considering that they've got her external hard drive and all back-ups of over three years of work (7,000+ photos) she considers this her first priority.
As for the quality of the ransacking, I'm afraid I don't have much of a basis of comparison. I guess I'd characterize it as more "excessively messied" than "trashed". Closets were emptied, boxes of childhood photographs were spilled on the floor, etc., but nothing was broken.
So an innocent citizen's livelihood has been highjacked by thugs who left your home a mess and now she has to pay a lawyer to recover her possessions. And all this in a pursuit to prosecute smoke-bombers she took pictures of? Fucking thugs in jackboots. Why not just approach her in a civil manner and request any help she could provide? These gungho bastards don't give a flip about the democratic rights they're supposedly hired to protect. They are obviously more interested in practicing their 'smash and dash' skills.
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--Formerly: Gort--
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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Foolhearty
Shipmate
# 6196
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Posted
Home of the formerly free. Land of the no-need-to-be brave, provided you have a badge and a set of official suspicions you can talk a judge into signing.
Hell, where is Dietrich Bonhoeffer when you need him?
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Fear doesn't empty tomorrow of its perils; it empties today of its power.
Posts: 2301 | From: Upper right-hand corner | Registered: May 2004
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Myrrh
Shipmate
# 11483
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Posted
ACLU has challenged the Patriot Act, and the Centre for Constitutional Rights specialise in this. http://ccrjustice.org/
Going in this direction of course will entangle the lawyers in the act they'd been defending you against, ACLU's began in 2003 and doesn't look much further on. You could of course get Alan Shore and actually sue the FBI and the judge for violating your rights...
Was reading a page with a link to 'more people can name characters in the Simpsons than give four of the constitutional rights granted them' - even the lawyers think about this in terms of government granting the oiks a few rights instead of it being a limit on government by the people.
Good luck.
Myrrh
(Some links on the Patriot Act)
Posts: 4467 | Registered: Jun 2006
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Just saw the opening skit of tonight's "Saturday Night Live". A reprise of Katie Couric's interview of Sarah Palin. Track it down online--hilarious!
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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comet
Snowball in Hell
# 10353
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
What happened to Senator John McCarthy in the end ?
After being censured by his fellow Senators he became a pariah, ignored by colleagues and press alike. He eventually drank himself in to an early grave after having gambled away at the track most of the money sent to him by private contributors to "fight communism".
far too good for the bastard.
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Evil Dragon Lady, Breaker of Men's Constitutions
"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning.” -Calvin
Posts: 17024 | From: halfway between Seduction and Peril | Registered: Sep 2005
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
<pedant alert>
It bugged me for a little until I realised why. The boozy anti-communist senator was Joe McCarthy. I'm not sure there's ever been a Senator John McCarthy.
</pedant alert>
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Clint Boggis
Shipmate
# 633
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
He eventually drank himself in to an early grave after having gambled away at the track most of the money sent to him by private contributors to "fight communism".
You say that like it's a bad thing.
Too right mjg, a much better use of the money than wasting it on some pointless campaign trying to restrict other political views.
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Posts: 1505 | From: south coast | Registered: Jun 2001
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eeGAD
Wandering Stowaway
# 4675
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I've just been listening to Joe Biden's little post-debate interview with Keith Olbermann on Countdown last night, and I have to say, dude knows how to spin! Honestly, it was a pleasure to see someone who knows his job do it so well. Thursday should be fun.
. . . but Gov Palin couldn't be bothered with any post-debate comment or spin, she was at a party. Am I the only person on the planet who thinks this is a very lame excuse. I mean, can't girlfriend drop the apple-tini for 5 minutes to talk to a camera? Didn't ANYONE think that McCain's running mate should make a comment on his debate? The whole idea that a person who is potentially one heart-attack away from the Oval Office is too busy at a party to comment on the Presidential Debate makes me nauseous.
Right now the biggest problem McCain has for me is that I think his running mate is a bigger joke that Dan Quayle. I simply cannot cast a vote that includes voting for her.
eeG
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You don't fix faith. It fixes you. - Shepherd Book
Posts: 976 | From: The Land of Mary | Registered: Jun 2003
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Mamacita
Lakefront liberal
# 3659
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Posted
quote:
Didn't ANYONE think that McCain's running mate should make a comment on his debate?
Among McCain's people, the present strategy regarding Palin is to keep her away from any situation where she might get off-script. And they've found that sticking to the script isn't good enough; even the two interviews on overtly neutral territory (Charles Gibson and Katie Couric) got Palin in trouble because she couldn't handle the follow-up questions. Even Fox News has been complaining about the "protect Palin from the press" tactic. (And I love Keith Olberman, but if I were McCain's people, I wouldn't let Palin in the same room with him and a microphone.)
Afterthought re Sen. Joe McCarthy: The town of Appleton, WI is McCarthy's birthplace, and at the time when I was attending a nearby college, the post office had a lovely sculpted bust of him placed prominently, labeled "A Great American."
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Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world’s grief. Do justly, now. Love mercy, now. Walk humbly, now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.
Posts: 20761 | From: where the purple line ends | Registered: Dec 2002
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Comper's Child
Shipmate
# 10580
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
He eventually drank himself in to an early grave after having gambled away at the track most of the money sent to him by private contributors to "fight communism".
You say that like it's a bad thing.
![[Killing me]](graemlins/killingme.gif)
Posts: 2509 | From: Penn's Greene Countrie Towne | Registered: Oct 2005
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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28
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Posted
An observation, btw, on the premise that we're safer from terrorist attacks now than ew were. I suppose that it depends on who's doing the terrorizing and who's being terrorized.
Muslim Children Gassed at Dayton Mosque
I guess none of these people feel particularly safe now.
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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!
Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
Michelle Obama spoke too soon.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
# 2
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Posted
The reports I read said that the paramedics and hazmat units found absolutely no chemicals whatsoever. Granted, that doesn't excuse the pieces of shit who did it, but at least they didn't really poison anyone.
I got one of those DVDs in the mail. I was wondering where the hell it came from.
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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.
Posts: 17140 | From: 330 miles north of paradise | Registered: Mar 2001
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Erin:
The reports I read said that the paramedics and hazmat units found absolutely no chemicals whatsoever.
Which of course (not impugning your motives, Erin) doesn't really say anything unless we have benchmarks for diffusion and dispersion to compare against.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
# 2
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Posted
Since 9/11 and the anthrax scare, I will bet any amount of money that hazmat teams have studied exactly that.
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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.
Posts: 17140 | From: 330 miles north of paradise | Registered: Mar 2001
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Josephine
Orthodox Belle
# 3899
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Posted
So the question is, what on earth did the attackers use that would cause the symptoms the people in the mosque suffered and that the hazmat folks wouldn't be able to detect a few hours later?
And did the people who did it know that it wouldn't be detectable, or did they just get lucky?
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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!
Posts: 10273 | From: Pacific Northwest, USA | Registered: Jan 2003
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Soror Magna
Shipmate
# 9881
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
A question about polls: I've been watching www.fivethirtyeight.com, and I don't understand one of the pie charts on the left.
I understand electoral vote and popular vote -- but what's the win percentage?
I pulled this from their FAQ:
quote:
Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952.
So maybe it's the level of confidence in the prediction which takes into account the margin of error in each of the polls counted towards the aggregage result. OliviaG
Posts: 5430 | From: Caprica City | Registered: Jul 2005
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Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
# 2
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Posted
It looks like it's just the number of times a candidate won in each simulation.
Re: the mosque... again, the reports I've read haven't been quite so... dramatic. The reports I have read seem to indicate that a few people suffered from minor symptoms and that hazmat was on the scene fairly quickly.
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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.
Posts: 17140 | From: 330 miles north of paradise | Registered: Mar 2001
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
Erin is most likely right. The idea in simulation is that you run things a billion times and look at the distribution of results. If X% of the simulated results have Obama winning, then they take this as the probability of an Obama win.
Whether or not this reflects any kind of reality depends heavily on how you are constructing your simulation. One widely known technique, known as 'bootstrapping' involves resampling data from existing results (e.g. polls). I could bore you to death with the details, but it is a standard methodology in a lot of areas (not just opinion polling).
You can get a confidence interval around this 'win percent' by using the overall variability of the simulated results as an estimate of the variance of the estimator.
I haven't read these guys methodology yet, but in my semi-professional opinion, he sure seems to know a lot about what he is doing judging by what I've seen so far.
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460
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Posted
Yeah, he's bootstrapping.
If those opinion polls in Ohio and Florida are any indiction of reality then - bearing in mind that the swing seems to be going towards Obama yet he was already polling ahead in Michigan and Colorado last week - the Republicans are in for their worst defeat since FDR.
And in the Senate, and the House.
Hard to believe to be honest - it looks TOO good for Obama.
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Ken
L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.
Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460
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Posted
Sorry, not FDR. I forgot about 1964 - LBJ had a huge electoral college majority.
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Ken
L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.
Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
There's still time left. There is a big effect because of the financial markets and bailout, which does seem to be hurting McCain. However, after a solution is through this will diminish. It is hard to separate this effect from the effect of the debate, although the debate is probably too recent for most of the polls. The effect of the market uproar could be diminished if a bailout goes through this week and the financial world settles down.
If things look the same in polls conducted between the 15th and 20th of October, then it is going to be very bad for Republicans.
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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Imaginary Friend
Real to you
# 186
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Posted
Let's wait and see what happens on (and post) Thursday night, too...
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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough
Posts: 9455 | From: Left a bit... Right a bit... | Registered: May 2001
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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659
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Posted
Well, yes, that and two further presidential debates. Polling will get a lot more common in the coming days, but I'm not sure we'll have decent polling results following Thursday's VP debate until about a week after. There will be some small polls available Friday or Saturday, but they will be a bit soon and a bit small. The impact of the debates will actually be larger through news coverage of them than the actual debate itself, sadly enough.
Posts: 2994 | From: Minneapolis, Minnesota USA | Registered: Jun 2005
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Oscar the Grouch
Adopted Cascadian
# 1916
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Posted
Re Sarah Palin....
It seems to me (from across the Pond) that "conservative" commentators are tending to talk her down quite forcibly. So much so that I can't help but wonder whether it is a rather sneaky ploy to boost her chances of looking good.
Scenario 1
Palin and Biden go in to their debate with the public awareness focussing heavily upon Palin's youthfulness and energy.
Biden edges the debate.
End result - Biden (and Obama) end up looking better and they get a "bounce" in the polls
Scenario 2
Palin and Biden go in to their debate with the public awareness focussing heavily upon Palin's supposed weaknesses.
Biden edges the debate.
End result - Palin (and McCain) end up looking better and they get a "bounce" in the polls
What happens in the debate is the same, but the net result is vastly different because of the changed expectations beforehand. In this second scenario, Palin can appear to look good if she just avoids a total wipeout and anything less than a wipeout makes Biden look bad. If I were a scheming, amoral political fixer, right now I would be doing all I could to make sure that the public's expectations of Palin were as low as possible. The lower the expectations, the better she'll look if she isn't that bad.
Much as I dislike Palin and almost all she stands for, I can't help thinking that if she were as bad as some conservative commentators are claiming, she would never have made it past being Mayor of Wasilla.
Methinks that they doth protest a bit too much!
ETA
And if I were REALLY devious, I would make sure that all her major TV interviews before hand were deliberately poor....
[ 01. October 2008, 17:20: Message edited by: Oscar the Grouch ]
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Faradiu, dundeibáwa weyu lárigi weyu
Posts: 3871 | From: Gamma Quadrant, just to the left of Galifrey | Registered: Dec 2001
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Josephine
Orthodox Belle
# 3899
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Oscar the Grouch:
And if I were REALLY devious, I would make sure that all her major TV interviews before hand were deliberately poor....
That would suggest that you believe her performance in the debate will have a stronger effect on voters than Tina Fey's performance on SNL.
I'm not so sure that's true.
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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!
Posts: 10273 | From: Pacific Northwest, USA | Registered: Jan 2003
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Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Oscar the Grouch:
Re Sarah Palin....
What you describe is part of "managing expectations". It is done so much that the efficacy (or lack thereof) is also discussed by pundits. You can bet money that both sides are doing it.
The interviews, however, were bad because they were bad--you want the candidate to look good, but you point out that the form of debate is more cultivated and useful for legislators blah blah blah...
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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson
Posts: 3337 | From: ...somewhere in between 40 and death... | Registered: Mar 2007
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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460
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Posted
How Jewish is Sarah Palin from that excellent newspaper, the Jewish Chronicle.
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Ken
L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.
Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002
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moron
Shipmate
# 206
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
That would suggest that you believe her performance in the debate will have a stronger effect on voters than Tina Fey's performance on SNL.
I'm not so sure that's true.
IMO you are forgetting how many 'heartland' types there are in the US.
For good or bad they don't have much use for SNL, and the 'media elite' and what McCain recently called the 'Georgetown cocktail party' circuit.
Posts: 4236 | From: Bentonville | Registered: May 2001
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Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mjg:
...For good or bad they don't have much use for SNL, and the 'media elite' and what McCain recently called the 'Georgetown cocktail party' circuit.
My suspicion, though, would be that this in not the crowd McCain and Palin need to convince in order to win.
A candidate doesn't usually need to impress supporters in a debate--Palin will need to impress the undecided, who are a much smaller group.
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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson
Posts: 3337 | From: ...somewhere in between 40 and death... | Registered: Mar 2007
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Imaginary Friend
Real to you
# 186
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Organ Builder:
A candidate doesn't usually need to impress supporters in a debate--Palin will need to impress the undecided, who are a much smaller group.
Surely the debate has an effect on how many of the core voters will bother to go to the polls on election day. If the Republican base is sketchy on McCain, then a good performance by Palin (reinforcing her family values credentials, for example) could help there.
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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough
Posts: 9455 | From: Left a bit... Right a bit... | Registered: May 2001
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Josephine
Orthodox Belle
# 3899
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Posted
Do you think, in her most recent interview with Couric, she was strong enough on social/moral issues for "the base"?
She admitted that she wants abortion to be illegal in all cases (even in a pregnancy resulting from incestuous rape), but wouldn't want anyone to go to jail for it.
She said she wants there to be fewer abortions, and doesn't know anyone who disagrees with that position.
She wouldn't say she opposes the morning after pill, only that she wouldn't use it herself.
She said she wouldn't choose to be gay, like her very best friend who is gay, but that she would never, ever judge another American for being gay.
Are those statements strong enough for the "religious right"? Or are they going to feel like she's waffling, and selling out?
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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!
Posts: 10273 | From: Pacific Northwest, USA | Registered: Jan 2003
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Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by davelarge:
Surely the debate has an effect on how many of the core voters will bother to go to the polls on election day...
I'm not really sure the debate WILL have that effect--debates tend not to move things much in American politics, barring some really big gaffe.
I think the core voters who needed a reason probably got it from her convention speech--a format which let her shine and speak to their concerns much more precisely than the debate format will.
Still, I've been voting in Presidential elections since 1976 and I don't have the best record for reading the tea leaves.
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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson
Posts: 3337 | From: ...somewhere in between 40 and death... | Registered: Mar 2007
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
After the Doonsbury cartoons about him faking a foreclosure, won't people get fact and fiction mixed up and think it ain't exactly genuine?
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Foolhearty
Shipmate
# 6196
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
McCain is selling one of his houses.. It's 15,000 square feet (yes, that's fifteen thousand), 13 bedrooms, 14.5 baths, 7-car garage. Video footage here.
Does the timing of this seem really odd to anyone else?
Why would he have this auction less than two weeks before the election? It seems like a stupid thing to do.
Maybe he needs more money for his anti-Obama ads.
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Fear doesn't empty tomorrow of its perils; it empties today of its power.
Posts: 2301 | From: Upper right-hand corner | Registered: May 2004
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The Bede's American Successor
Curmudgeon-in-Training
# 5042
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Posted
5 Friends (uncensored) (non-work safe language, YouTube video)
From the link:
quote:
Leonardo DiCaprio, will i. am, Tobey Maguire, and Forest Whitaker have created public service announcements to encourage American youth to register to vote. The non-partisan PSAs, produced by DiCaprios Appian Way, were created to engage and inspire young people to register and vote and participate in the upcoming election. Celebrities appearing in the PSAs include: Amy Adams, will.i.am, Jennifer Aniston, Kevin Bacon, Halle Berry, Kate Bosworth, Kevin Connolly, Courteney Cox, Ellen DeGeneres, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jamie Foxx, Jonah Hill, Dustin Hoffman, Anthony Kiedis, Ashton Kutcher, Adam Levine, Laura Linney, Eva Longoria, Tobey Maguire, Demi Moore, Natalie Portman, Giovanni Ribisi, Ethan Suplee, Kyra Sedgwick, Michelle Trachtenberg, Usher, and Forest Whitaker.
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This was the iniquity of your sister Sodom: she and her daughters had pride of wealth and food in plenty, comfort and ease, and yet she never helped the poor and the wretched.
—Ezekiel 16.49
Posts: 6079 | From: The banks of Possession Sound | Registered: Oct 2003
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
Why would he have this auction less than two weeks before the election? It seems like a stupid thing to do.
Maybe the interest on his ARM is going off scale and he's trying to avoid foreclosure.
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--Formerly: Gort--
Posts: 12954 | Registered: May 2004
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
I wonder if she doesn't have some form of mild aphasia. Not being able to drum up the name of a newsmagazine is nearly impossible to believe for a standing governor.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Alfred E. Neuman
What? Me worry?
# 6855
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Posted
It wasn't that she couldn't come up with magazine names - the problem was no one outside of Alaska has heard of Tundra Times, Moose Butcher's Digest or the Aerial Wolf-Hunter's Guide.
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--Formerly: Gort--
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