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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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I predict it will be as boring as their last "debate."
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
New Yorker
Shipmate
# 9898

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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I predict it will be as boring as their last "debate."

I hope not, but fear you're correct. Maybe A&E or PBS has a good film showing just in case?
Posts: 3193 | From: New York City | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28

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McCain doesn't seem to be very good for veterans.

Palin doesn't either

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

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Imaginary Friend

Real to you
# 186

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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I predict it will be as boring as their last "debate."

Might the 'Town Hall' style force them to engage with the questions, each other, and the audience a bit more?

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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

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trouty
Shipmate
# 13497

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But who is going to win? A lot of commenters are partisan one way or the other. Taking a neutral view, who is most likely to win?
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Mother Julian

Ship's librarian
# 11978

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Hi, Trouty

I think just about everyone is partisan - I know I am. I think that Obama may just win it - but I'm worried about the latent racism of many voters which may come out in the polling booth, even though it doesn't in opinion polls. I'm also worried about Obama's personal security - I just hope that he's got a really good security team protecting him.

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The corn was orient and immortal wheat which never should be reaped, nor was ever sown.

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Comper's Child
Shipmate
# 10580

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But really, is winning the point of American presidential debates? I suppose one is supposed to knock out the other, but isn't it rather more helpful to the people in making a proper decision in the voting booth by understanding where each candidate stands rather than seeing it as which one beat the pants off the other.
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Foolhearty
Shipmate
# 6196

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Oh, come now. The only reason the debates seem boring is that no show on earth could compare to the shenanigans of this year's election campaign.

I've been voting for a long time, and this is unquestionably the strangest campaign I've ever seen.

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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443

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I predict that Sen. McCain will walk on stage, hug Sen. Obama, LOOK HIM IN THE EYE, and say, "Can I call you Barry?"

Greta

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Hiro's Leap

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# 12470

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quote:
Originally posted by Foolhearty:
I've been voting for a long time, and this is unquestionably the strangest campaign I've ever seen.

Aside from the ... er ... maverick ... choice of Palin (and I suppose the financial collapse) has this election been all that unusual?
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nickel
Shipmate
# 8363

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quote:
Originally posted by CorgiGreta:
I predict that Sen. McCain will walk on stage, hug Sen. Obama, LOOK HIM IN THE EYE, and say, "Can I call you Barry?"

Greta

[Killing me] actually that's the main reason I'm going to tune in tonight -- to see how the VP's have raised that particular bar.
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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New Yorker, I am interested to know why you think the United States has been targeted ?

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Imaginary Friend

Real to you
# 186

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quote:
Originally posted by trouty:
But who is going to win? A lot of commenters are partisan one way or the other. Taking a neutral view, who is most likely to win?

Is it even possible to define the winner? I don't think I know what winning looks like!

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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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Re McCain's temper and possible implosion:

Since February or so, he's seemed to be on mood meds. Understandable, given his temper*...but they suppressed his likable spark.

Lately, he seems like his meds have been changed, or he's not taking as much. The nastier part of him is peering out over that smile. He seems dangerous and creepy.


*I'd long supposed his temper was partly due to his POW experiences. But there was something in the news, weeks ago, saying that he'd been like that clear back to high school.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Horseman Bree
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# 5290

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Reading The Times today gives a rather alarming picture of frustration and anger during GOP rallies:

quote:
Events this week have been marked by ugly outbursts from crowds. In Clearwater, Florida, shouts of “kill him!” could be heard amid a chorus of boos when Mrs Palin attacked the Democratic nominee over his links with 1960s radical, Bill Ayers.

Journalists were reported to have been taunted with obscenities or racial insults from members of audience when Mrs Palin blamed the “mainstream media” for what she described as her “less-than-successful” - and much-parodied - television interviews.

At a rally on Monday in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Mr McCain asked: “Who is the real Barack Obama?” A man in crowd screamed back the reply: “Terrorist!”


Is this going to grow? Is it going to have any particular effect in the campaign or the aftermath? It doesn't seem to be helpful to the nation.

Or is it just that outside observers don't understand what they are seeing?

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It's Not That Simple

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Zorro
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# 9156

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Anyone up in the UK for this one or just me? [Frown]


Zorro

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It is so hard to believe, because it is so hard to obey. Soren Kierkegaard
Well, churches really should be like sluts; take everyone no matter who they are or whether they can pay. Spiffy da wondersheep

Posts: 2568 | From: Baja California (actually the UK but that's where my fans know me from) | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Zorro
Shipmate
# 9156

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Americans? Didn't mean to be exclusive-I just feel quite chuffed with myself for staying up past my "bed 'n bath by 9" regime!


Zorro.

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It is so hard to believe, because it is so hard to obey. Soren Kierkegaard
Well, churches really should be like sluts; take everyone no matter who they are or whether they can pay. Spiffy da wondersheep

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Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
# 2

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It's on in the background. I got bored and wandered off to play mahjong. However, my first impression is Jesus Christ, Tom, shut the fuck up about the time already! Let them talk.

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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.

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Zorro
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# 9156

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He is a bit authoritarian. That said I guess if he wasn't it'd get stagnant-they're probably worried about it becoming a handbags at 10 paces bitchfest.


Zorro.

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It is so hard to believe, because it is so hard to obey. Soren Kierkegaard
Well, churches really should be like sluts; take everyone no matter who they are or whether they can pay. Spiffy da wondersheep

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Zorro
Shipmate
# 9156

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Watching this really makes me think it's something lacking in the UK election process. It's great seeing 2 candidates in a pressured situation debating policy and leaving the attack-ad mentality at the door. Definetly something we need over here.


Zorro.

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It is so hard to believe, because it is so hard to obey. Soren Kierkegaard
Well, churches really should be like sluts; take everyone no matter who they are or whether they can pay. Spiffy da wondersheep

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PataLeBon
Shipmate
# 5452

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I think that our house has decided that Tom will be the first to lose his temper...

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That's between you and your god. Oh, wait a minute. You are your god. That's a problem. - Jack O'Neill (Stargate SG1)

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Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
# 2

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And I am not John McCain's friend.

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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.

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Zorro
Shipmate
# 9156

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Could be worse. No winks yet.


Zorro.

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It is so hard to believe, because it is so hard to obey. Soren Kierkegaard
Well, churches really should be like sluts; take everyone no matter who they are or whether they can pay. Spiffy da wondersheep

Posts: 2568 | From: Baja California (actually the UK but that's where my fans know me from) | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Zorro
Shipmate
# 9156

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Anyone noticed McCain has a lot of heroes? Reagan, now Roosevelt, in the last minute and a half [Roll Eyes]


£20 says JFK's next [Razz]


Zorro.

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It is so hard to believe, because it is so hard to obey. Soren Kierkegaard
Well, churches really should be like sluts; take everyone no matter who they are or whether they can pay. Spiffy da wondersheep

Posts: 2568 | From: Baja California (actually the UK but that's where my fans know me from) | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335

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quote:
Originally posted by Zorro:
Anyone noticed McCain has a lot of heroes? Reagan, now Roosevelt, in the last minute and a half [Roll Eyes]


£20 says JFK's next [Razz]


Zorro.

Well, he would support Teddy's militaristic streak.. I don't know how big McCain would be about Roosevelt's truly radical view about the harm of big business power.

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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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I can't see McCain starting the National Park system either.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Laura
General nuisance
# 10

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quote:
Originally posted by Erin:
And I am not John McCain's friend.

Thank you! I'm so sick of that!

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Love is the only sane and satisfactory answer to the problem of human existence. - Erich Fromm

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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335

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quote:
Originally posted by Laura:
quote:
Originally posted by Erin:
And I am not John McCain's friend.

Thank you! I'm so sick of that!
AMEN! FDR used "my friends" too but people knew he meant it and it was not just a throwaway line.

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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"

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Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
# 2

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Man, eight years of watching Bush turn the US into a third world country has turned McCain into a bitter jackass. If debating your Democrat counterpart is so far beneath you, just don't show up.

Asshole.

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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by Mother Julian:
I think that Obama may just win it - but I'm worried about the latent racism of many voters which may come out in the polling booth, even though it doesn't in opinion polls.

I may be boring regular readers of this thread, but I won't let that stop me from once again linking to this discussion on fivethirtyeight.com of the Bradley effect. You can read the details there, but the fact is that Obama did better in the polling booths in the primaries than he did in the opinion polls almost everywhere in the country, especially the south.

quote:
I'm also worried about Obama's personal security - I just hope that he's got a really good security team protecting him.
Obama has been under Secret Service protection since May 2007. I think it's safe to assume that they know what they're doing.

quote:
Originally posted by Horseman Bree:
Reading The Times today gives a rather alarming picture of frustration and anger during GOP rallies:

quote:
Events this week have been marked by ugly outbursts from crowds. In Clearwater, Florida, shouts of “kill him!” could be heard amid a chorus of boos when Mrs Palin attacked the Democratic nominee over his links with 1960s radical, Bill Ayers.

Journalists were reported to have been taunted with obscenities or racial insults from members of audience when Mrs Palin blamed the “mainstream media” for what she described as her “less-than-successful” - and much-parodied - television interviews.

At a rally on Monday in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Mr McCain asked: “Who is the real Barack Obama?” A man in crowd screamed back the reply: “Terrorist!”


Is this going to grow? Is it going to have any particular effect in the campaign or the aftermath? It doesn't seem to be helpful to the nation.

Or is it just that outside observers don't understand what they are seeing?

No, you understand it just fine. It's despicable. The Secret Service spokesman has said they're looking into it.

quote:
Originally posted by davelarge:
Is it even possible to define the winner? I don't think I know what winning looks like!

The winner is the one the undecided voters like the best. That seems to be Obama this time.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mamacita

Lakefront liberal
# 3659

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quote:
Originally posted by SeraphimSarov:
quote:
Originally posted by Laura:
quote:
Originally posted by Erin:
And I am not John McCain's friend.

Thank you! I'm so sick of that!
AMEN! FDR used "my friends" too but people knew he meant it and it was not just a throwaway line.
Thank you and another loud Amen! And the other word(s) that makes me want to throw a shoe at the TV is "General Petraeus." All proper respect to the General, but why the hell does McCain have to invoke him at least 3 times per debate? (Rhetorical question.) The man is a military commander, not a prophet, and certainly not the arbiter of our foreign policy. Last time I checked, the civilians were supposed to be in charge of that.

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Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world’s grief. Do justly, now. Love mercy, now. Walk humbly, now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.

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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335

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quote:
Originally posted by Mamacita:
quote:
Originally posted by SeraphimSarov:
quote:
Originally posted by Laura:
quote:
Originally posted by Erin:
And I am not John McCain's friend.

Thank you! I'm so sick of that!
AMEN! FDR used "my friends" too but people knew he meant it and it was not just a throwaway line.
All proper respect to the General, but why the hell does McCain have to invoke him at least 3 times per debate? (Rhetorical question.) The man is a military commander, not a prophet, and certainly not the arbiter of our foreign policy. Last time I checked, the civilians were supposed to be in charge of that.
But McCain still believes that if the Generals had been given their "proper authority" in Vietnam, we would have "won". Generals such as Haig. Yeah right.

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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"

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RooK

1 of 6
# 1852

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It really gets on my nerves how they have to avoid giving direct answers to some questions. I hate politics.
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443

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Two words may have cost McCain at least two percentage points in the polls: "That one". You don't win votes by being an a-hole.

Greta

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Orb

Eye eye Cap'n!
# 3256

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The best thing about that whole debate was when they stood in front of Brokaw's teleprompter right at the end. Hilarious.

The worst thing about that whole debate was John McCain. Who IS he? Who let him be on TV? Why will anyone vote for this man? What is there to like?

I see Obama taking all of Kerry's states and he'll definitely get Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and
New Mexico. That puts him on 278 already and in the White House. I guess Missouri remains the bellwether. He may also add North Carolina, Virginia and (big if) Indiana. Either one (or both?!) of Ohio and Florida would be absolutely sweet, given the history. A proper red state like Montana, Georgia or South Carolina would also be brilliant. Anything else is just wishful thinking.

I'm pretty confident that America's gonna pull through this time. Anyone else confident?

Oh, and here's his first cabinet:

Sufjan Stevens will be secretary of state(s).
Warren Buffet will be secretary of the treasury.
Bill O'Reilly will be defense secretary.

After that, I'm not sure...

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“You cannot buy the revolution. You cannot make the revolution. You can only be the revolution. It is in your spirit, or it is nowhere.” Ursula K. Le Guin, The Dispossessed

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Barnabas62
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# 9110

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Didn't stay up but have watched some highlights. For me from what I've seen, Obama did better by some distance.

This incitement stuff (Horseman Bree's post and links} is a real concern however.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Zorro
Shipmate
# 9156

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From what I can gather the "terrorist" and "kill him" stuff is being seen as a horrifying indictment on a very small number of people rather than showing up a sizeable voting group who stand between Obama and Pennsylvania Ave. It looks now as if Obama is striding ahead in the polls and the "that one," reference has been particularly damaging.


What I wonder now, and as a UKer this isn't something I'm good to answer on-what do US shipmates think will happen? I'd assumed (I pray rightly) that the "He won't win 'cos he's black" mentality was bullshit and was actually out the window-was I being naive, was I right and am I still, or might the trend be reversed in the next few weeks pre-election?


Zorro.

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It is so hard to believe, because it is so hard to obey. Soren Kierkegaard
Well, churches really should be like sluts; take everyone no matter who they are or whether they can pay. Spiffy da wondersheep

Posts: 2568 | From: Baja California (actually the UK but that's where my fans know me from) | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
moron
Shipmate
# 206

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quote:
Originally posted by CorgiGreta:
Two words may have cost McCain at least two percentage points in the polls: "That one". You don't win votes by being an a-hole.

I could only stand to watch a few minutes of the debacle, erm, debate and I missed the comment: what's the context?


And if that's the best McCain can do allow me to introduce President Obama... what was all the hype about how 'town hall' meetings were his strong point?

Plus I imagine Hillary is whimpering softly somewhere right now as she watches her hopes for 2012 fade.

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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460

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I turned on my TV.

And I sat down to watch it.

And I fell asleep.

Blame the G&T is you want.

Two things:

- neither of them come across as amazingly inspiring or charismatic on TV

- is McCain deliberatly trying to imitate Reagan's voice, or is that just the natural combination of a rather dated General-American accent (they both sound like people from the 1950s because they ARE people from the 1950s - well, 1910s and 20s for Reagan but he updated his image due to beignna film star and all that) and a once-deep voice gone whispery with old age and frailty?

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460

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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
You can read the details there, but the fact is that Obama did better in the polling booths in the primaries than he did in the opinion polls almost everywhere in the country, especially the south.

The worry is that the self-selected ten percent or so of the population who vote in Democrat primaries probably doesn't have a big overlaps with the unknown proportion so of the population who might think twice before voting for a black President. Crudely, they are almost certanly likely to be both more interested in politics and more liberal than Americans who don't vote in Dem primaries.

I know that in Britain black parliamentary candidates often get fewer votes than expected (or at least used to - I do not know if the effect still continued in the last general election). And I honestly don't think the average Brit is more racist than the average American. On the other hand I also know that effect here is much larger for Tory candidates here than Labour - large enough that there have been a few high-profile Tory candidates who seem to have lost elections purely because they were black. And opinion polls generally understate Tory votes as well.

On the other other hand there is evidence that women candidates for Parliament get more votes than might be expected. (If I can find a good online source for past election results I think I can do stats on that - but all the websites I've seen have silly chrome all over tham that takes too much trouble to strip off - what I need is plain text...)

The USA, as always might be different.

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

Posts: 39579 | From: London | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
# 2832

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quote:
Originally posted by CorgiGreta:
Two words may have cost McCain at least two percentage points in the polls: "That one". You don't win votes by being an a-hole.

Greta

I hope the pundits really pounce on that today, it made me think of some of the ugliness I've seen on right-wing message boards, where they call Obama, things like "that man who's name I won't say." I keep asking them for specific reasons why they don't like Obama and they keep telling me he's "scary." I guess the spooky music in McCain's campaign ads got to them.

As for Tom and his time limit fixation, I was happy to see the SNL players have something good to work with, but my husband found it so irritating he left the room after about the tenth mention. When he came back I was watching, "The Twenty Top Redneck Moments," on cable.

Posts: 6817 | Registered: May 2002  |  IP: Logged
Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
# 10192

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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
quote:
I'm also worried about Obama's personal security - I just hope that he's got a really good security team protecting him.
Obama has been under Secret Service protection since May 2007. I think it's safe to assume that they know what they're doing.

Three U.S. Presidents have been shot in my life time -- one of them fatally. (It's early here and I haven't had my coffee. Was Ford shot or was it just an attempt?) I hope the Secret Service knows what they're doing, but I wouldn't count on it.

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Sine Nomine

Ship's backstabbing bastard
# 66

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When I was passing Al and Tipper's little cottage last night on my way home from work I notice the gates were open and there were two valet parking types at the bottom of the drive.

Then when I went around the curve past their house there were a zillion motorcycle cops, two police cars and an anonymous looking white van hanging around. My immediate thought was that Senator Obama must be visiting the ex-Veep and selected guests/contributors before the debate.

In any case, if that was the situation he appeared to be well-protected.

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Precious, Precious, Sweet, Sweet Daddy...

Posts: 16639 | From: lat. 36.24/lon. 86.84 | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
New Yorker
Shipmate
# 9898

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quote:
Originally posted by Orb:
The best thing about that whole debate was when they stood in front of Brokaw's teleprompter right at the end. Hilarious.

I agree. Very funny.

The worst thing for me was McCain's answer to the first question. Obama went first and alleged that the current economic mess are the result of eight years of Bush and that McCain would just be another four years of the same. McCain did not respond to that. He should have pointed out that if anyone is to blame for this mess it's the Democrats who sacrificed economic regulation and oversight on the altar of making loans to those who could not afford them. Now many will disagree with this view, but it's the Republican argument and McCain should have made it.

The other worst thing is that some of the questions were just not too good.


quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I'm also worried about Obama's personal security - I just hope that he's got a really good security team protecting him.



While I would not shed a tear if the Good Lord called Obama home soon and very soon through natural causes, I certainly don't want to see him assassainated. No need to make a martyr out of him.

What everyone should worry about is the current President Bush. Federal law was changed at some point to end lifetime Secret Service protection for former presidents starting with Bush. Now they only get ten years after leaving office. That needs to be changed. All former presidents deserve protection for life, but with the kooks out there that have an absolute irrantional hatred for Bush, he especially needs it.

Posts: 3193 | From: New York City | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
Imaginary Friend

Real to you
# 186

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quote:
Originally posted by CorgiGreta:
Two words may have cost McCain at least two percentage points in the polls: "That one". You don't win votes by being an a-hole.

Was it just me who thought that comment had racist overtones?

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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

Posts: 9455 | From: Left a bit... Right a bit... | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
# 2

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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
the kooks out there that have an absolute irrantional hatred for Bush

Do you really think it is irrational? Really? Compare the US now to what it was when he took office. I don't know how anyone can not hate Bush.

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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.

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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335

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quote:
Originally posted by davelarge:
quote:
Originally posted by CorgiGreta:
Two words may have cost McCain at least two percentage points in the polls: "That one". You don't win votes by being an a-hole.

Was it just me who thought that comment had racist overtones?
no, it just showed off McCain's worst qualities: his bitterness and temper. He is no racist.

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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"

Posts: 2247 | From: Sacramento, California | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
Hiro's Leap

Shipmate
# 12470

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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
with the kooks out there that have an absolute irrantional hatred for Bush

True. Only kooks have an irrational hatred of Bush when there are so many rational reasons. Now Bill Clinton, he was a man who inspired irrational hatred.

It amazes me how many Republicans can smoothly transition from supporting Bush to heartily disliking him, yet still refuse to admit "Yeah, maybe those damned anti-Bush lefties had a point, and in hindsight we were wrong to try and shout them down."

Posts: 3418 | From: UK, OK | Registered: Mar 2007  |  IP: Logged
Imaginary Friend

Real to you
# 186

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quote:
Originally posted by SeraphimSarov:
quote:
Originally posted by davelarge:
Was it just me who thought that comment had racist overtones?

no, it just showed off McCain's worst qualities: his bitterness and temper. He is no racist.
Woah, hold on. I don't suggest that the overtones to one comment make him a racist: I'm sure he's not. I was thinking more of misinterpretation (possibly willful) and how that might play in the media.

--------------------
"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I'm also worried about Obama's personal security - I just hope that he's got a really good security team protecting him.


I didn't say that.

quote:
While I would not shed a tear if the Good Lord called Obama home soon and very soon through natural causes, I certainly don't want to see him assassainated. No need to make a martyr out of him.
Wow. Just wow.

quote:
Originally posted by Sine Nomine:
When I was passing Al and Tipper's little cottage last night on my way home from work I notice the gates were open and there were two valet parking types at the bottom of the drive.

Then when I went around the curve past their house there were a zillion motorcycle cops, two police cars and an anonymous looking white van hanging around. My immediate thought was that Senator Obama must be visiting the ex-Veep and selected guests/contributors before the debate.

In any case, if that was the situation he appeared to be well-protected.

Obama was at Gore's place for a fundraiser after the debate. Imagine what it must have looked like then.

quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
You can read the details there, but the fact is that Obama did better in the polling booths in the primaries than he did in the opinion polls almost everywhere in the country, especially the south.

The worry is that the self-selected ten percent or so of the population who vote in Democrat primaries probably doesn't have a big overlaps with the unknown proportion so of the population who might think twice before voting for a black President. Crudely, they are almost certanly likely to be both more interested in politics and more liberal than Americans who don't vote in Dem primaries.
All very true. And the remainder of the American electorate, those who don't vote in Democratic primaries, is more likely to be honest with pollsters about not wanting to vote for a black man. There really is no solid reason at this point to believe that the people who don't want a black man to be president are shy about saying so. There's even a way for them to state it without coming out and saying, "I'm a racist" -- they say "the country is not ready for a black man to be president."
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged



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