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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
Scot

Deck hand
# 2095

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That really leaves me wondering who is playing the part of the king?

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“Here, we are not afraid to follow truth wherever it may lead, nor tolerate any error so long as reason is left free to combat it.” - Thomas Jefferson

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Jack the Lass

Ship's airhead
# 3415

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I wish I could remember. It might have been the USA itself. I'll see if I can find it (if you don't hear from me again, send out a search party - I'll be the one buried under a mountain of fruit cake).

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"My body is a temple - it's big and doesn't move." (Jo Brand)
wiblog blipfoto blog

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Jack the Lass

Ship's airhead
# 3415

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Sigh. That's been an instructive half hour or so of searching. In the last couple of weeks there appear to have been about a million new blog posts on the Sarah Palin/Esther thing, and unfortunately I haven't found the particular one I read. It was definitely a wordpress blog, but having done a search within wordpress (as well as google) and not found it I'm guessing it wasn't tagged by the author. And now I'm losing the will to live, having waded through so much nonsense [Frown]

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"My body is a temple - it's big and doesn't move." (Jo Brand)
wiblog blipfoto blog

Posts: 5767 | From: the land of the deep-fried Mars Bar | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Scot

Deck hand
# 2095

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quote:
Originally posted by Jack the Lass:
It might have been the USA itself.

So Palin is going to screw the USA for the sake of the right-wing religious nuts? Sounds possible, actually.

P.S. Glad you weren't crushed by the fruitcake!

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“Here, we are not afraid to follow truth wherever it may lead, nor tolerate any error so long as reason is left free to combat it.” - Thomas Jefferson

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Lyda*Rose

Ship's broken porthole
# 4544

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I'm more concerned that she'll turn out to be Judith, sneaking in and beheading the country. [Eek!]

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"Dear God, whose name I do not know - thank you for my life. I forgot how BIG... thank you. Thank you for my life." ~from Joe Vs the Volcano

Posts: 21377 | From: CA | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478

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quote:
Originally posted by Lyda*Rose:
I'm more concerned that she'll turn out to be Judith...

Or Jael, nailing us to the ground.

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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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I have a moral/ethical question for con-evo McCain supporters: if Obama wins the election, will premarital sex go back to being immoral on November 5?

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New Yorker
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# 9898

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
I have a moral/ethical question for con-evo McCain supporters: if Obama wins the election, will premarital sex go back to being immoral on November 5?

If McCain wins, will infanticide go back to being immoral?
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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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I must have missed where the Democrats were being hypocrites about infanticide due to Biden's daughter having committed infanticide, even though infanticide has long been a Democrat shibboleth. Either that or you missed the point.

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New Yorker
Shipmate
# 9898

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It is often said that we should not blame children for their parents' crimes. But are you saying we should blame parents for the crimes of their children?
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Hiro's Leap

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# 12470

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Psst! New Yorker? You might have had a bit more luck if you'd used this as your counter-example. It's not a perfect fit, but it's better than claims of infanticide.
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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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I don't say that, Republicans said that. Con-evos said that. Until Palin was selected for the GOP ticket, then all of a sudden it was an okay lifestyle choice and nobody's business. I just wonder if it will go back to the way it was once the election is over (should Obama win, I mean)? Or will teen pregnancy no longer be the parents' fault forever and for aye, and nobody's business outside the family?

PS I read in the paper today that Palin was saying on stump that she was found innocent of ethics violations. Isn't lying unethical?

[ 12. October 2008, 14:58: Message edited by: mousethief ]

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Clint Boggis
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# 633

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I heard an extract of a Palin speech a few days ago, where some of the crowd were chanting "USA,USA!" Presumably some of them are simple souls who think the election is an international contest and they're identifying with "their team".

Is there some minimum mental capacity test for voters? No, I thought not. If there was though, I wonder which side would suffer more from lost votes.

[ 12. October 2008, 15:46: Message edited by: Clint Boggis ]

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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Surely not the effete liberal overclass? [Roll Eyes]

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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Ooh, here's a fun fact:

The McCain/Palin ticket is the first in American history in which both candidates were found to have violated ethics standards before a national election.

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New Yorker
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# 9898

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I'm not sure of the details on the ethics violations, but that is certainly better than Obama's record on the issue of life. How much more basic can one get than life itself? (Sorry if this heads to a dead horse, but to many of us that is the fundamental issue.)
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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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Yeah why not start a thread in DH.

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trouty
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# 13497

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Maybe this has already been asked but anyway...
the polls seem to have Obama quite a way in front. How volatile are American polls? How likely is it for anyone to be able to come back from that far behind? Has it been done beofre?

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SeraphimSarov
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# 4335

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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
I'm not sure of the details on the ethics violations, but that is certainly better than Obama's record on the issue of life. How much more basic can one get than life itself? (Sorry if this heads to a dead horse, but to many of us that is the fundamental issue.)

yes but it also points to the bigger question about how consistantly pro-life the Republicans are which is problematic for them as they tend to be anti-abortion but keen on the death penalty and weapons programs which have as much to do with the fundamental issue.

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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"

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Josephine

Orthodox Belle
# 3899

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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
I'm not sure of the details on the ethics violations, but that is certainly better than Obama's record on the issue of life. How much more basic can one get than life itself? (Sorry if this heads to a dead horse, but to many of us that is the fundamental issue.)

Would this thread do, New Yorker? Or do you want a brand-new thread to talk about voting pro-life in the presidential election?

BTW, I don't think it's necessary for someone who is pro-life and anti-abortion to be in favor of overturning Roe v. Wade. Banning abortion is not the only approach to preventing it, and not necessarily the most effective. But if you want to pursue that line of conversation, we can take it to dh, if you'd like.

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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!

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Orb

Eye eye Cap'n!
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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
I'm not sure of the details on the ethics violations, but that is certainly better than Obama's record on the issue of life.

"The issue of life" is surely a lot broader than just "whether someone thinks abortions should be allowed". It's also whether you are providing for the common good, seeking to end poverty and social deprivation, putting enough money into scientific funding to find medicines that help lessen suffering, etc. etc. etc.

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“You cannot buy the revolution. You cannot make the revolution. You can only be the revolution. It is in your spirit, or it is nowhere.” Ursula K. Le Guin, The Dispossessed

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saysay

Ship's Praying Mantis
# 6645

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quote:
Originally posted by Scot:
There's an email making the rounds among the conservative religious types (don't ask why I got it) in which a pastor recounts how God engineered a highly unlikely meeting with Palin so that the pastor could tell her that she's a present day Esther. The entire story is bugshit crazy, as far as I'm concerned, but I've been puzzling over exactly how the Esther parallel is supposed to work.

[Killing me]

No, I shouldn't laugh. These people are serious. Many of them are taking this story seriously. There are probably some people who have actual power in the world who are taking this story seriously. It's not funny. Really, it's not.

I'm sorry, I can't help it. I can't even seem to get annoyed at the lies and blasphemy. It's just so frickin' cute.

Although I'm not looking forward to the temper tantrums when things don't turn out the way they thought...

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"It's been a long day without you, my friend
I'll tell you all about it when I see you again"
"'Oh sweet baby purple Jesus' - that's a direct quote from a 9 year old - shoutout to purple Jesus."

Posts: 2943 | From: The Wire | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
New Yorker
Shipmate
# 9898

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No. Let's not head to Dead Horses. I just don't have the time. Too many New Yorkers to convert to McCain and not enough time to do it!
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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443

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New Yorker,

"Life" is a splendid issue for philosophers and theologins to debate, but the pressing political issue is more basic. It is that of survival, as a nation, as an economy, as a planet, and as individuals, struggling, frightened, and angry.

Greta

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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460

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It looks as if a lot of these people think the real candidate is Palin. Some what she says sounds as if she does too. Maybe she knows more than we do about McCain's poor health, maybe its just wishful thinking.

While we are searching for Biblical paralels, where do we find a political figure who like McCain who married a rich wife and had dozens of houses? Ahab and Jezebel maybe? Or who put away his previous wives to marry a rich powerful woman? Herod perhaps?

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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ken
Ship's Roundhead
# 2460

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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
. How much more basic can one get than life itself? (Sorry if this heads to a dead horse, but to many of us that is the fundamental issue.)

Then how the fuck can you vote for Mr "BOMB IRAN!"

Or is it OK to murder adults?

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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CorgiGreta
Shipmate
# 443

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Does McCain think that it helps his image to say this: "... after I whip his you know what in the dabate..."?

Greta

[ 12. October 2008, 22:55: Message edited by: CorgiGreta ]

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by trouty:
Maybe this has already been asked but anyway...
the polls seem to have Obama quite a way in front. How volatile are American polls? How likely is it for anyone to be able to come back from that far behind? Has it been done beofre?

The thing to keep in mind is that the national polls are interesting in that they tell you how the candidates are doing overall (and when a campaign's candidate is winning, it's nice for them to be able to point to national polls, because Americans like winners), but it's the electoral college vote that determines the election. So what really sucks for McCain is not so much how many overall percentage points Obama is ahead, but that there are tight races in states that were expected to go Republican and in some cases even some solid Obama leads in those states.

The map at 270towin.com shows which states each candidate is expected to win (Obama=blue, McCain=red) and which look like they could go either way (beige). They're showing that Obama can currently count on 264 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, so he only needs to win one of the eight beige states. McCain needs to win them all in order to win the election. So it's extremely likely at this point that Obama will win this election.

The greatest upset in US presidential elections came in 1948, when Dewey was widely expected by pundits and pollsters to win, the pundits because they underestimated the appeal of Truman's fiery populist rhetoric and the pollsters because their heavy reliance on phone polls biassed their samples in favor of people who could afford phones and because some of them simply quit polling a few weeks before the election. Polling is a lot better than it was 60 years ago, fortunately.

You can see from the Gallop Poll archives going back to 1936 that Kerry (2004), Ford (1976), Humphrey (1968), Nixon (1960) and Stevenson (1952) all made substantial gains in the last weeks but still narrowly lost. Reagan came was down by six points and then picked up a lot right at the end to win in 1980. History is on Obama's side in this comparison, though, as he's like Reagan in being a relative outsider that a lot of people just have to get comfortable with before they can vote for him, while McCain is more like Carter in being associated with the many problems we've got. There will probably be some fluctuations in the national polls between now and Nov. 4 -- Obama is currently down a bit from the peak of a few days ago -- and it's not outside the realm of possibility that he will lose, but barring a major unforeseen development, it's rather unlikely. The issue of the economy isn't going to go away in the next few weeks, and McCain's campaign seems to be in turmoil, which is never, ever a good sign for a candidate's chances.

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
No. Let's not head to Dead Horses. I just don't have the time.

So you should probably either defend McSame without the "Obama is worse cos he's not pro-life by my definition" bullshit, or just admit McSleaze is as sleazy as the rest of us can see he is.

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Josephine

Orthodox Belle
# 3899

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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Obama is currently down a bit from the peak of a few days ago -- and it's not outside the realm of possibility that he will lose, but barring a major unforeseen development, it's rather unlikely.

There seems to be at least some speculation that Osama bin Laden might choose to do something dramatic (even launch another attack on US soil) shortly before the election, in order to sway the public to vote for McCain.

The letter bin Laden published right before the 2004 election, denouncing Bush, caused Americans to rally around their president, and even Bush admits it helped him win re-election -- which was exactly what bin Laden wanted. He trusted Bush to keep expanding the war in the Middle East. Gore, not so likely.

It's possible that ObL thinks the same trick could work twice. TBH, I'm not sure it could -- I think McCain/Palin are coming across as such a pair of nutcases that a real international incident might well push even more people toward Obama.

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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!

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saysay

Ship's Praying Mantis
# 6645

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quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
It's possible that ObL thinks the same trick could work twice. TBH, I'm not sure it could -- I think McCain/Palin are coming across as such a pair of nutcases that a real international incident might well push even more people toward Obama.

Especially with Biden and his foreign policy experience on the Obama ticket. That trick won't work again in this election.

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"It's been a long day without you, my friend
I'll tell you all about it when I see you again"
"'Oh sweet baby purple Jesus' - that's a direct quote from a 9 year old - shoutout to purple Jesus."

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Living in Gin

Liturgical Pyromaniac
# 2572

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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Too many New Yorkers to convert to McCain and not enough time to do it!

[Killing me]

Yeah, good luck with that. Let us know how it turns out. [Roll Eyes]

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It's all fun and games until somebody gets burned at the stake.

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SeraphimSarov
Shipmate
# 4335

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quote:
Originally posted by Living in Gin:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Too many New Yorkers to convert to McCain and not enough time to do it!

[Killing me]

Yeah, good luck with that. Let us know how it turns out. [Roll Eyes]

what are the polls in NY? Obama +30 or something??

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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"

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Timothy the Obscure

Mostly Friendly
# 292

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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
I heard an extract of a Palin speech a few days ago, where some of the crowd were chanting "USA,USA!" Presumably some of them are simple souls who think the election is an international contest and they're identifying with "their team".

Is there some minimum mental capacity test for voters? No, I thought not. If there was though, I wonder which side would suffer more from lost votes.

Actually, there is an old law in Ohio (and I wouldn't be surprised if there were similar ones in other states) prohibiting "idiots" from voting. Obviously, it hasn't been enforced for some time.

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When you think of the long and gloomy history of man, you will find more hideous crimes have been committed in the name of obedience than have ever been committed in the name of rebellion.
  - C. P. Snow

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Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
# 10192

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quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:

The letter bin Laden published right before the 2004 election, denouncing Bush, caused Americans to rally around their president, and even Bush admits it helped him win re-election -- which was exactly what bin Laden wanted. He trusted Bush to keep expanding the war in the Middle East. Gore, not so likely.


Wasn't it Kerry in 2004?

It was 2000 when Gore won the election.

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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Well it should have been Gore in 2004. But this is probably not the place to wrangle over whether or not the election for POTUS should be determined by SCOTUS. At least until after this coming election. And hopefully not then either.

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Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
# 10192

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
Well it should have been Gore in 2004. But this is probably not the place to wrangle over whether or not the election for POTUS should be determined by SCOTUS. At least until after this coming election. And hopefully not then either.

2004?

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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RooK

1 of 6
# 1852

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
2004?

I think the extrapolation Mousethief is implying is that Gore should have been in the White House in 2000, and therefore would have also run as the incumbent in 2004.
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Golden Key
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# 1468

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quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
. How much more basic can one get than life itself? (Sorry if this heads to a dead horse, but to many of us that is the fundamental issue.)

Then how the fuck can you vote for Mr "BOMB IRAN!"

Or is it OK to murder adults?

Perhaps it's more ok because McCain sang it?

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
Josephine

Orthodox Belle
# 3899

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
Wasn't it Kerry in 2004?

Yes, you're right. Sorry.

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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!

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New Yorker
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# 9898

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
So you should probably either defend McSame without the "Obama is worse cos he's not pro-life by my definition" bullshit, or just admit McSleaze is as sleazy as the rest of us can see he is.

Here is McCain defending Obama. Not at all like a sleaze ball.

And, here is the Investor's Business Daily saying that Obama may already be destroying the economy even before he's elected!

[ 13. October 2008, 13:38: Message edited by: New Yorker ]

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SeraphimSarov
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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
So you should probably either defend McSame without the "Obama is worse cos he's not pro-life by my definition" bullshit, or just admit McSleaze is as sleazy as the rest of us can see he is.

[URL=http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/MCCAIN_ANGRY_CROWDS?SITE=AP]So here you have McCain saying that Obama is a decent person[/URL,]which is not the trait of a sleaze ball to me.
yes but he did this AFTER his campaign had been heavily criticized for it's inaction about these sort of ignorant comments at his and Palin's rallies. He was fine with this before the backlash.

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
here is the Investor's Business Daily saying that Obama may already be destroying the economy even before he's elected!

Let me get this right. Eight years into Bush's regime, Republicans are still happy to blame his failures on Clinton, but failing that on a Democrat candidate hasn't even been elected yet? How wide is the window where you actually allow your party to take any blame at all? [Eek!]

[ 13. October 2008, 13:54: Message edited by: Hiro's Leap ]

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Josephine

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No, but when the head of the GOP in Virginia told campaign workers to compare Obama to Osama -- after all, the both have friends that bombed the Pentagon -- and McCain was asked about it, he said he didn't have enough information to know whether that was inappropriate.

That, my friend, is the action of a sleazeball.

I mean, seriously. Obama lived in the same neighborhood as Ayers, and worked on some non-profit boards with him. Ayers was a radical back in the 1960s; today he's a respected member of the Chicago education establishment. The "radical" board that he and Obama served on ALSO had McCain supporters on it. It was funded by the Annenberg foundation. It was mainstream, not radical. McCain knows all that.

And he thinks this makes Obama morally equivalent to Osama bin Laden? That's pure, unadulterated sleaze.

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Josephine

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Previous post was addressing New Yorker, and his contention that McCain is not a sleazeball.

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I've written a book! Catherine's Pascha: A celebration of Easter in the Orthodox Church. It's a lovely book for children. Take a look!

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mousethief

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quote:
Originally posted by RooK:
quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
2004?

I think the extrapolation Mousethief is implying is that Gore should have been in the White House in 2000, and therefore would have also run as the incumbent in 2004.
Ah, yes, there is intelligent life down here, Scotty.

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Pigwidgeon

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Yes, Gore SHOULD have been the incumbent in 2004. But my post was questioning what Josephine had said about bin Laden.

I normally don't quibble about dates, but the 2000 debacle will be etched in my brain forever.

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mousethief

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Just so. And I was using what you said to post my own (very brief) bitter reflection on the 2000 debacle. I wasn't answering you, I was furthering what you said.

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New Yorker
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quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
Ayers was a radical back in the 1960s; today he's a respected member of the Chicago education establishment.

Respected by whom? Bin Laden? He's an unrepentant terrorist pure and simple.

McCain's followers may shout slogans at rallies, but Obama's followers are the true thugs.

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cliffdweller
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quote:
New Yorker writes:

I'm not sure of the details on the ethics violations, but that is certainly better than Obama's record on the issue of life. How much more basic can one get than life itself? (Sorry if this heads to a dead horse, but to many of us that is the fundamental issue.)

Don't know if this is Dead Horse territory or not, but... as a pro-life evangelical Democrat, I am of course disappointed (though not surprised) that Obama supports legalized abortion. However, "pro-life" is more than a single issue, it applies not only to the unborn, but also to the born. McCain/Palin pass the pro-life issue on abortion with flying colors, but they fail on every other pro-life issue-- war, poverty, health care. Obama passes all those issues with flying colors.

Couple that with the fact that I have absolutely no reason to believe that a McCain/Palin administration would lead to any change in abortions in the US. The GOP has been "pro-life" for 3 decades and have delivered nothing on their promise in that time, not even attempted to do anything, despite stretches where they controlled both the presidency and both houses of Congress. The only significant decrease in the rate of abortion came under Clinton.

Then there's the Saddleback forum, where McCain gave the right focus group answer on abortion, but then gave not a single thing he would do as president to reduce abortion. Obama's initial response was disappointing from a pro-life perspective, but he went on to give 3 or 4 specific, concrete things he would do to reduce the rate of abortion.

Obama is the true pro-life candidate.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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