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» Ship of Fools   » Ship's Locker   » Limbo   » Purgatory: Is "climate change" being used to bring in a global Govenment? (Page 17)

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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: Is "climate change" being used to bring in a global Govenment?
Mr Clingford
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quote:
Originally posted by brackenrigg:
Why have the Norwich academics carried on with their deception for decades?
Why does the Met Office only quote data over the last 150 years?
Why aren't 1000 year-old trees or ice-cores used to exterpolate climate data?.

If you can invade an oil-rich country over non-existant WMD, you can also put heavy sanctions on a coal-burning country.

I'm really not sure what you are saying here. [Confused]

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The Power of Christ compels you.

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ken
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quote:
Originally posted by brackenrigg:
Why have the Norwich academics carried on with their deception for decades?
Why does the Met Office only quote data over the last 150 years?

[Killing me]

quote:

Why aren't 1000 year-old trees or ice-cores used to exterpolate climate data?.

Well they are actually, lots and lots and lots. l

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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Barnabas62
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[Big Grin] ... Just placing on record that although I live in Norfolk, I do not work for the CRU.

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BroJames
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quote:
Originally posted by brackenrigg:
Why does the Met Office only quote data over the last 150 years?

What makes you think that they do? Can you give us a link, please? My impression is that they use as large as possible datasets, so, for example, central England temperature records based on daily observations go back to 1772 and monthly observations go back to 1659. (20 pages or so of technical discussion here (PDF) If you want to combine datasets - e.g. temperature and rainfall, then they are smaller because they are dependent on what information was recorded historically.
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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Just placing on record that although I live in Norfolk, I do not work for the CRU.

Technically that's true, but ultimately you both have the same paymasters.
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Barnabas62
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[Big Grin] Merry Christmas, Hiro! [And thanks for all the fish(ing).]

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rufiki

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Perhaps brackenrigg was thinking of this press release? It's based on the instrumental record, which is more accurate than estimates from tree-ring and ice-core proxy data. Presumably pre-1850 weather reports were too sparse to make a reasonable estimate of the global average.
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BroJames
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Global average temperatures. That explains it. These are from the instrumental record, and I suspect 1850 or thereabouts is the earliest period when you get instrumental measurement across a wide enough geographic spread.
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Dal Segno

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quote:
Originally posted by brackenrigg:
Why does the Met Office only quote data over the last 150 years?

That would be because that's how long they've been collecting it. Their earliest measurements come from 1853

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Amorya

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What do you guys think of this diagram?
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Alan Cresswell

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It is, evidently, a very brief summary. I'm aware that some of the arguments from the skeptics are missing (no mention of CO2 being heavier than air ... but that does seem to be a minority skeptic view), and that the diagram only counters skeptic arguments without presenting all the evidence supporting anthropogenic influences on the climate that the skeptics don't (usually) object to.

About the only thing I'd change is on the 'hockey stick' section. He put in a graph of his own creation of different paleoclimate reconstructions showing the persistence of the 'hockey stick' without the disputed original Mann work. I'd have just put in the (basically identical) version from the 2007 IPCC report - the report that his skeptic claim says didn't include it!

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I'm not mad. Just slightly annoyed.

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Dal Segno

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What do you make of David McCandless' comment about how difficult it is for a non-expert to understand expert opinion on climate change? Does this throw any light on this thread's problems?
quote:
I researched this subject in a very particular way. I deliberately chose not speak directly to any climate experts or leading scientists in the field. I used only publicly available web sources.

Why? Because I wanted to simulate what it’s like for people trying to learn about climate change online.

My conclusion is “what a nightmare”. I was generally shocked and appalled by how difficult it was to source counter arguments. The data was often tucked away on extremely ancient or byzantine websites. The key counter arguments I often found, 16 scrolls down, on comment 342 on a far flung realclimate.org post from three years ago. And even when I found an answer, the answers were excessively jargonized or technical.

Most of the info for this image is sourced from Realclimate.org. It’s an amazing blog staffed tirelessly by some of the world’s leading climatologists.

Unfortunately, the majority of the writing on there is so scientific and so technical, it makes the website nigh on useless to the casual, curious reader.



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Barnabas62
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It's a wider issue, Dal Segno, this issue of accessibility. Here are a few personal views. I'm sure some bias is showing!

* The willingness to be educated includes the willingness to do work, to take on board the humility required in learning.

* The study of science has never been all that popular. So it's basic ethos and principles are not that well understood.

* Some scientific understandings are intrinsically high abstract and abstruse. It's not being too intellectually elitist (I hope) to observe that "in order to ride on this roller-coaster, you need to be more than a certain height". By which I mean, have demonstrated a good capacity for abstract thought in learning. I remember my excellent physics teacher advising me that the concept of pressure and its effects defeats a significant proportion of students.

* The notion I grew up with - that the discoveries of science and their application had much to say about the benefits of civilisation - improved health and living conditions, transportation, etc - is largely discounted or taken for granted.

* On the other hand, some of the big fears (e.g. nuclear warfare) are seen as resulting from the discoveries of science (rather than their application.

* Then there is the ongoing pomo effect - "this is my truth, tell me yours" - which tends to make truth a matter of opinion. Which opens the question "why should opinion A be more significant, or more correct, than opinion B - doesn't everyone have an axe to grind?"

* And there is the "instant news" effect which conveys to "the man on the Clapham omnibus" the impression that any of us can catch the gist of anything through the way information is presented via the media.

Mix them all up together and one arrives at the current somewhat "noisy" situation. I don't believe human beings have lost any of their individual and corporate capacity to learn and understand. But the noise gets in the way a lot.

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Saul the Apostle
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quote:
Barnabas said: ''Mix them all up together and one arrives at the current somewhat "noisy" situation. I don't believe human beings have lost any of their individual and corporate capacity to learn and understand. But the noise gets in the way a lot.''
I think my concerns about the CC/GW area is that the bandwagon seems to have grown and changed into something far beyond what our understanding is of climate change and even if GW/CC is as serious as they say, our responses seem disproportianate and the analogy, for me, of 'The Emperors New Clothes'' seems apposite.

So you have Al Gore pontificating and making unproven statements ; he might as well be selling ''miracle cure for mens hair loss'' as far as I can see. He makes whopper statements that bear little relation to the facts.

When solid scientists who are sceptical say anything they are pooh poohed and written off as 'retired., 'crank' or 'unqualified'.

The whole climate change thing is like evolutionary theory...say something loud and long enough and people start to believe it.

I am a YEC and I have never believed evolution , once I realised that scientists (just like GPs were given ''god like'' deference 40 years ago) are not 'of one mind' and we need to see science as fallible, in some cases corrupt, in some cases full of a lot of hot air and pomposity.

Having said all of that, the initial thread was about global governance and no one has really commented on the wider implications of Ban Ki Moon's own words about...''global governance''.

I am not sure what to make of it all. Gordon Brown talks about ''saving the planet'', well that does get me worried, especially as I think of his predecessor Tony Blair and his ill conceived foreign jaunt to Iraq.

I like Barnanbas' approach though in the last posting. I guess I need to show sufficient humility to realise I don't have all the answers and.....god forbid...I may be wrong on a few things too!!!

Saul

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A fronte praecipitium a tergo lupi

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:

Having said all of that, the initial thread was about global governance and no one has really commented on the wider implications of Ban Ki Moon's own words about...''global governance''.

Saul

ken did.

If I may put in my own twopennorth, monitoring of international treaties is miles away from global government. Ask yourself what penalties may be enforced on sovereign states.

I think you may be confusing specific governance and general government.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
ken did.

So did I.
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Alan Cresswell

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Ban Ki Moon made his comment, as has been said, in the context of a suggestion that control of funds to aid developing nations cope with the impact of climate change and adopt low-carbon technology be placed in the hands of developed nations. He's basically making a bid for the UN to have that role. Which is in reality an attempt to maintain what little power and authority the UN currently has rather than to increase it.

Also, there's a difference between "goverance" and "government". He seems to be talking about a very limited administrative function defined by treaty. That, whenever a treaty on limiting carbon emissions and giving aid to developing nations is agreed, that would include well defined agreements of how much money will be in the pot and what that can be spent on. That will be defined by the nations who are signatories to the treaty. Ban Ki Moon basically wants that money funneled through the UN, either through a dedicated programme or one or more of the existing UN aid programmes. The UN would thus be given an administrative role (which seems to be what he's talking about with the word "goverance") but the actual "government" would still be the individual nations negotiating the treaty.

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I'm not mad. Just slightly annoyed.

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Dal Segno

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
* Then there is the ongoing pomo effect - "this is my truth, tell me yours" - which tends to make truth a matter of opinion. Which opens the question "why should opinion A be more significant, or more correct, than opinion B - doesn't everyone have an axe to grind?"

This one has always struck me as a load of tripe. In philosophy or history you can have alternative putative truths. But you cannot willy-nilly transfer that post-modern view to mathematics and science. But it seems that non-scientists try to do so without any understanding of what science is or how it works.

There are truths that can only be denied if one is willing to ignore the facts.

If I jump off a 50 storey building, I will fall to the ground. You cannot philosophise away gravity.

Regardless of your philosophy, 1+1=2. You can do some deep theorising as to why it might be so and how you can prove it true, but it is still true. If you create a mathematics where 1+1=3, then you are either a crackpot or a pure mathematician setting up an alternative system to see what happens (or both, of course). In any case, for the rest of us one plus one still makes two.

If you create a physics where the kinetic theory of gases doesn't work, then it does not line up with the experimental evidence nor with the theories of the underlying mechanism of action.

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Saul the Apostle
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quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
ken did.

So did I.
OK fair point chaps you did answer it.

Just a little point though, I don't hold to the ''iluminati' world conspiracy theories, personally. But, if you were a last days freak/guru to see Ban Ki Moon's comments below, would send you into paroxysms of ''I told you so'' and ''there it is from the horses mouth''. Ban Ki Moon said:

''We will establish a global governance structure to monitor and manage the implementation of this. Experts from both worlds should participate.''

I tend to see history and even the ''last days'' as being more prosaic and pedestrian than some grand conspiracy by say ''skull and boness'' groups that Bush Snr. & Jnr. belonged to.

But you'll admit surely, the above statement would have conspiracy theorists rubbing their hands with a perverse glee, yes?

saul

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A fronte praecipitium a tergo lupi

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
But you'll admit surely, the above statement would have conspiracy theorists rubbing their hands with a perverse glee, yes?

Absolutely. I think it's an unwise choice of words.

I suspect this century will supply much to keep End Times people and conspiracy theorists excited.

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Dal Segno:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
* Then there is the ongoing pomo effect - "this is my truth, tell me yours" - which tends to make truth a matter of opinion. Which opens the question "why should opinion A be more significant, or more correct, than opinion B - doesn't everyone have an axe to grind?"

This one has always struck me as a load of tripe. In philosophy or history you can have alternative putative truths. But you cannot willy-nilly transfer that post-modern view to mathematics and science. But it seems that non-scientists try to do so without any understanding of what science is or how it works.


Yes-ish. I'm not much of a fan of the Pomo view (or constellation if views if one wants to be accurate). My point was its influence, not its validity.

On the other hand, scientists are human beings, factoring in their desires to do good science with the normal range of human ambitions and the need to survive. I think the history of scientific enquiry does indeed justify the view that it is self-correcting through time. But that doesn't preclude a certain amount of self-interested messing about from time to time, which may distort the journey from time to time.

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Dal Segno:
What do you make of David McCandless' comment about how difficult it is for a non-expert to understand expert opinion on climate change? Does this throw any light on this thread's problems?
quote:
I wanted to simulate what it’s like for people trying to learn about climate change online.

My conclusion is “what a nightmare”. I was generally shocked and appalled by how difficult it was to source counter arguments.
[...]
the majority of the writing on [Real Climate] is so scientific and so technical, it makes the website nigh on useless to the casual, curious reader.


I think he's absolutely spot on. The case for AGW is presented very badly online, the scientists come across as arrogant, and Real Climate is totally inaccessible for most people. Books are much more useful, but most people aren't going to buy a climate change book.

The skeptic sites are more friendly, more appealing, and superficially present a better argument. They also have the advantage that it's much easier to poke holes somewhere in a complex theory than explain it - evolutionary biologists have the same problem.

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Clint Boggis
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Hang on Saul.... rewind

quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
I think my concerns about the CC/GW area is that the bandwagon seems to have grown and changed into something far beyond what our understanding is of climate change and even if GW/CC is as serious as they say, our responses seem disproportianate and the analogy, for me, of 'The Emperors New Clothes'' seems apposite.

So you have Al Gore pontificating and making unproven statements ; he might as well be selling ''miracle cure for mens hair loss'' as far as I can see. He makes whopper statements that bear little relation to the facts.

When solid scientists who are sceptical say anything they are pooh poohed and written off as 'retired., 'crank' or 'unqualified'.

The whole climate change thing is like evolutionary theory...say something loud and long enough and people start to believe it.

Saul

So you're discounting it as a "bandwagon" purely on the basis that almost all scientists in the field accept AGW? That's ridiculous - is gravity a bandwagon?

Re: Al Gore on "unproven" statements and telling "whoppers"; you'll need to provide something rather more convincing than your assertion. AIUI, Gore made some minor errors in the film but the basics are in line with the scientific consensus. If you know better please show us where he was proven materially wrong.

Where did you hear that scientists are discounted if they are sceptical? Examples please.

The repetition of the AGW case is because the experts are very concerned about the climate. They have convinced government leaders of many nations but there are still large numbers of ordinary people who don't accept AGW. If it's true, OF COURSE they're going to keep mentioning it until it's been drummed into the thick skull of every truth-denying, knuckle-dragging US senator.
.

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Doc Tor
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Someone (Alan?) was asking about the frequency of white Christmases.

The BBC obviously read the Ship, and have posted this page as a response.

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This time it’s not a city of twenty-five million that needs rescuing: it’s the world ....

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Saul the Apostle
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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
Hang on Saul.... rewind

quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
I think my concerns about the CC/GW area is that the bandwagon seems to have grown and changed into something far beyond what our understanding is of climate change and even if GW/CC is as serious as they say, our responses seem disproportianate and the analogy, for me, of 'The Emperors New Clothes'' seems apposite.

So you have Al Gore pontificating and making unproven statements ; he might as well be selling ''miracle cure for mens hair loss'' as far as I can see. He makes whopper statements that bear little relation to the facts.

When solid scientists who are sceptical say anything they are pooh poohed and written off as 'retired., 'crank' or 'unqualified'.

The whole climate change thing is like evolutionary theory...say something loud and long enough and people start to believe it.

Saul

So you're discounting it as a "bandwagon" purely on the basis that almost all scientists in the field accept AGW? That's ridiculous - is gravity a bandwagon?

Re: Al Gore on "unproven" statements and telling "whoppers"; you'll need to provide something rather more convincing than your assertion. AIUI, Gore made some minor errors in the film but the basics are in line with the scientific consensus. If you know better please show us where he was proven materially wrong.

Where did you hear that scientists are discounted if they are sceptical? Examples please.

The repetition of the AGW case is because the experts are very concerned about the climate. They have convinced government leaders of many nations but there are still large numbers of ordinary people who don't accept AGW. If it's true, OF COURSE they're going to keep mentioning it until it's been drummed into the thick skull of every truth-denying, knuckle-dragging US senator.
.

Even the true climate change believer is a little sceptical about the Al Gore roadshow surely?

Try this one for starters...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-5XwlcBqF0&feature=player_embedded#

Then this one...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fooYtalS9Gc&feature=player_embedded#

His 'Inconvenient Truth' film makes great scaremongering hyperbole and the hockey stick curve has been discounted many many times by other folk far more qualified than I (just google 'hockey stick curve controversy') .

Like I said the whole thing is a ''bandwagon'' now and Gordon Brown ''we need to save the planet'', come on Gordon, he'll be wearing his underpants outside his trousers next...more Flash Gordon than Prime Minister Gordon.

Saul

PS enjoy the big freeze here in the UK and mainland Europe, all part of the 'global warming' [Biased] [Biased] [Biased]

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A fronte praecipitium a tergo lupi

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Mr Clingford
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Saul - who would have expected snow and ice in winter? Stop the press!

If you're interested in something with a bit more credibility in regard to An Inconvenient Truth, would a court case do and the judge's decision? He ruled that the film "is substantially founded upon scientific research and fact".

The ruling

[ 23. December 2009, 15:00: Message edited by: Mr Clingford ]

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The Power of Christ compels you.

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Hiro's Leap

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I'd say the only major flaw in An Inconvenient Truth is that it talked about massive sea level rise without explaining that this was likely to take many centuries - possibly millenia. That was seriously misleading, and if you're going to claim you're representing mainstream opinion you have to do so scrupulously.

His presentation of the ice core CO2-temperature graph wasn't wrong, it's just that by not explaining the initial lag more carefully it gave skeptics an easy attack.

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Inger
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With regard to Gore's film, the best critique I've come across is this.

The author points out that several of the 'errors' in the film would be better regarded as points where there is genuine scientific dispute. For instance with regard to Kilimanjaro, while some scientists maintain that the melting of glaciers is unconnected with AGW, others have written convincingly (IMO) that there is a connection. The same could be said about Lake Chad. Basically, they are both ill-chosen examples; there are others Gore could have used where there isn't the same element of doubt.

On the other hand, he picks up on some errors that the judge missed.

He compares the film with Lomborg's book, The Skeptical Environmentalist, and finds many more errors in Lomborg. Altogether he finds 2 errors and 8 flaws in Gore's film - which I've still not got round to seeing...

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Saul the Apostle
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quote:
Originally posted by Mr Clingford:
Saul - who would have expected snow and ice in winter? Stop the press!

If you're interested in something with a bit more credibility in regard to An Inconvenient Truth, would a court case do and the judge's decision? He ruled that the film "is substantially founded upon scientific research and fact".

The ruling

I thought the court ruled that his ''Inconvenient Truth'' could be used...but with careful handling in schools as part of a wider more balanced curriculum?

Also see this (but it is a sceptical aside) ...


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100019320/climategate-met-office-leads-the-way-in-recycling-in-this-instance-d iscredited-climate-data/

Then there are the Al Gore series of whoppers (nine in all)...here is a report from ''The Times''...

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/law/article2633838.ece

Gore tried to tell a really big porky (lie) in Copehagen about the receding ice, misquoting a well known scientist called Dr. Maslowski, who wondered if Al Gore had been drinking too much Danish Carlsberg Lager on his latest jolly.

Maslowski refuted Gore's whopper and the discredited chap (Gore that is) had to eat humble pie (yet again).

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6956783.ece

It is an inconvenient truth that a lot of what Gore put forward as fact is (certainly in the nine examples just given) no more than a lot of hot air and fiction with a few strands of fact woven in to give it credibility.

Saul

[ 23. December 2009, 15:35: Message edited by: Saul the Apostle ]

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Inger
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Saul,

With regard to the ice: this graph will show you the way the Arctic ice is going, in terms of ice cover. It is clearly decreasing steadily.

What it won't show is the fact that more and more of the ice is thin, one-year ice, which can melt much more rapidly than old thick ice.

And to say that there is a 75% chance that all sea ice will have gone in summer in 5 years' time is not a lie. It may be mistaken, but that's another matter altogether.

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Mr Clingford
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Saul, I beginning to think that dialogue is not possible with you. I have provided a link to the actual court ruling and a quote from it in which the judge found the science in the film to be accurate. Look at the ruling. Not what a newspaper will try and say to you.

What's a main point of AIT - that AGW is happening; the judge ruled that 9 of the many smaller points of the film could not be supported by the science but that on the big picture of AGW the film was balanced.

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Hiro's Leap

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Real story: "Al Gore slightly misquotes a scientist and is corrected by him. Scientist had been making similar predictions in 2007 though, so Gore is probably remembering a previous conversation fairly accurately. Gore says OK, fair enough gov."

Times spun story: "sums don't add up ... Al Gore was poleaxed ... [insert photo of Gore looking tired]... dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast ... The embarrassing error cast another shadow over the conference"

Internet skeptic version: "Gore's whopper ... Really big porkie ... wondered if Al Gore had been drinking too much Danish Carlsberg Lager on his latest jolly"

Three cheers for the echo chamber. [Roll Eyes]

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Clint Boggis
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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
Even the true climate change believer is a little sceptical about the Al Gore roadshow surely?

I've seen the film - I'll accept the climate scientists' view and the court ruling (some errors but otherwise sound). You stick with the what selected journalists (eg "Gerald Warner is an author, broadcaster, columnist and polemical commentator who writes about politics, religion, history, culture and society in general") write if you like. That man's got opinions on everything!

quote:
His 'Inconvenient Truth' film makes great scaremongering hyperbole and the hockey stick curve has been discounted many many times by other folk far more qualified than I (just google 'hockey stick curve controversy') .

Like I said the whole thing is a ''bandwagon'' now and Gordon Brown ''we need to save the planet'', come on Gordon, he'll be wearing his underpants outside his trousers next...more Flash Gordon than Prime Minister Gordon.

Saul

PS enjoy the big freeze here in the UK and mainland Europe, all part of the 'global warming' [Biased] [Biased] [Biased]

Poppycock. To my mind saying Gore is "scaremongering" puts you definitely in the denier class, not the sceptic. It shifts my view of you from being an honest seeker of the genuine truth to someone who's accepted the denier argument and is fighting against the acceptance of AGW.

If your politics lead you to automatically discount anything from Gore or Brown, just admit it.

Your very basic objections have already been covered earlier in this thread. I do note that holding your views do get one a lot attention here!

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Saul the Apostle
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quote:
Originally posted by Mr Clingford:
Saul, I beginning to think that dialogue is not possible with you. I have provided a link to the actual court ruling and a quote from it in which the judge found the science in the film to be accurate. Look at the ruling. Not what a newspaper will try and say to you.

What's a main point of AIT - that AGW is happening; the judge ruled that 9 of the many smaller points of the film could not be supported by the science but that on the big picture of AGW the film was balanced.

Mr Clingford,

whether you have a dialogue with me or not is not important; I have put a counter to the generally accepted point of view, it is a respected and growing perspective.

Whether you choose to acknowledge this other viewpoint, well thats up to you isn't it? This is Purgatory after all.

The judge notes:


''Teaching staff will be aware that a minority of scientists disagree with the central thesis that climate change over the past half-century is mainly attributable to man-made greenhouse gases. However, the High Court has made clear the law does not require teaching staff to adopt a position of neutrality between views which accord with the great majority of scientific opinion and those which do not.''

I actually teach in a UK secondary school, what i do try and do is to put both sides of an argument or perspective (I don't push one side against another and vice versa..... in the classroom on SOF its a different story eh!).

I do try not to ''rubbish'' the other side, so we'll just have to agree on some things & disagree on others, but in this instance I feel Al Gore's treatment in ''The Inconvenient Truth'' is both partisan and inaccurate. See the attached:

http://www.lomborg-errors.dk./Goreacknowledgederrors.htm

This was posted by another shipmate earlier, but worth a look at.

Saul

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A fronte praecipitium a tergo lupi

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
I actually teach in a UK secondary school

What do you teach?
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Saul the Apostle
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ClintBoggis said:
quote:
Poppycock. To my mind saying Gore is "scaremongering" puts you definitely in the denier class, not the sceptic. It shifts my view of you from being an honest seeker of the genuine truth to someone who's accepted the denier argument and is fighting against the acceptance of AGW.

If your politics lead you to automatically discount anything from Gore or Brown, just admit it.

Your very basic objections have already been covered earlier in this thread. I do note that holding your views do get one a lot attention here!

I have replied in the last post. But this is Purgatory and people DO hold different points of view to yourself....shock horror gasp.

As a ''denier'' should I be put in the stocks, thumbscrews, or hung drawn and quartered? Is being a 'denier' such a terrible thing then? Anyway I say to you: ''Honi soit qui mal y pense'' .

On a less flippant note, I thought this chart was a good one:

http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/climate-change-deniers-vs-the-consensus/

Saul the denier and heretic off to the stocks....maybe? [Yipee] [Yipee] [Yipee]

[ 23. December 2009, 16:27: Message edited by: Saul the Apostle ]

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A fronte praecipitium a tergo lupi

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Mr Clingford
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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
...I do try not to ''rubbish'' the other side, so we'll just have to agree on some things & disagree on others, but in this instance I feel Al Gore's treatment in ''The Inconvenient Truth'' is both partisan and inaccurate. See the attached:

http://www.lomborg-errors.dk./Goreacknowledgederrors.htm

This was posted by another shipmate earlier, but worth a look at.

Saul

I had a look at the link. This is its conclusion:
"In the film, there is on average one flaw or error every 9th minute. Even if you watch the whole film, you do not meet as many distortions as there are in 10 pages of one of Lomborg´s books."

AIT makes errors in its details. But much less than the opposition, Lomborg in that link. You appeared to cite the page as evidence that AIT and AGW is weak. In fact, the site shows the opposite; that the opposition to AGW is much weaker.

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Inger
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Saul,

Did you actually read my link? He finds a total of TWO errors in the film: one relating to the spread of disease, (which says nothing at all about the science of AGW); one relating to the evacuation of people from low-lying islands, where he states as already having taken place something that is being planned for the near future.

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Luigi
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Saul - I like Hiro would like to know what you teach.

Perhaps if two of us ask the same question we may have a chance of getting an answer

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mousethief

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Count me in too. What do you teach, Saul?

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Luigi:
Saul - I like Hiro would like to know what you teach.

Perhaps if two of us ask the same question we may have a chance of getting an answer

Well, to be fair there's no reason he should answer. My question was more brusque than it ought to have been, and his private life is none of my business. However, since he's now dropped into the conversation that's he's a teacher, I'm certainly curious which subject.
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Barnabas62
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I suppose the latest exchanges highlight the issues of a) necessary background and b) the ability to evaluate conflicting information.

I said earlier that I haven't seen AIT yet and my views on climate change (there is a human contribution to the trends) have been formed over many years and by lots of multiple information sources. I would have been surprised if AIT was free from error or some degree of approximation. It was hardly a paper for peer review.

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Dal Segno

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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
PS enjoy the big freeze here in the UK and mainland Europe, all part of the 'global warming' [Biased] [Biased] [Biased]

As discussed earlier on this thread. The current big freeze could be owing to:

(a) random fluctuations in weather - just noise in the system.

(b) global warming - the Gulf Stream starting to shut down, which is one of the predicted outcomes of global warming, and which would makes this little corner of the world colder as the warm water from the tropics stops flowing north past us. The Gulf Stream makes our weather rather warmer than it should be for our latitude.

(c) global cooling - caused by ???

The consensus was on (a).

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mousethief

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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
I actually teach in a UK secondary school, what i do try and do is to put both sides of an argument or perspective (I don't push one side against another and vice versa..... in the classroom on SOF its a different story eh!).

There are still people who believe the earth is flat. So do you treat both sides of the "is the earth flat or a sphere?" controversy equally?

How about heliocentrism? Surely you treat the two hypotheses as being equally valid?

Now that you know the controversy exists, you will be teaching that an equally valid belief to the mixing of gases in the atmosphere is the belief that CO2 always falls to the bottom and doesn't mix?

You can't treat two rival hypotheses equally if they are not really equal. You have to point out that the vast majority of the scientific community finds the evidence for the one compelling, and a small handful of cranks, crackpots, and malcontents believe the other. Otherwise you're not really reporting the truth.

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Luigi
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Hiro - yes he (?) doesn't have to answer. My frustration with Saul is that when you ask him a question or put a number of problematic issues to him he just comes back with another jokey put down of Al Gore or Prince Charles or some other 'tree hugger', ignores the post and just restates what he has said a hundred times. He appears totally unwilling to engage with the details and logic of his position.

I am almost tempted to take Saul to the main library of any university in the UK, clear off the shelves of all the science books and papers that his position totally writes off (as a YECie and Climate Change Denier). Then take a match to this pile and burn all the books that 'Saul the heretic' [Yipee] [Confused] [Biased] [Yipee] [Snore] [Confused] believes are wrong.

He could then take home the science books that he hasn't written off. They should fit in the average ruck sack.

I really don't think he realises just how many scientists he is implying (by his position) are stupid, deluded, corrupt or a mixture of all three.

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Saul the Apostle
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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
I actually teach in a UK secondary school, what i do try and do is to put both sides of an argument or perspective (I don't push one side against another and vice versa..... in the classroom on SOF its a different story eh!).

There are still people who believe the earth is flat. So do you treat both sides of the "is the earth flat or a sphere?" controversy equally?

How about heliocentrism? Surely you treat the two hypotheses as being equally valid?

Now that you know the controversy exists, you will be teaching that an equally valid belief to the mixing of gases in the atmosphere is the belief that CO2 always falls to the bottom and doesn't mix?

You can't treat two rival hypotheses equally if they are not really equal. You have to point out that the vast majority of the scientific community finds the evidence for the one compelling, and a small handful of cranks, crackpots, and malcontents believe the other. Otherwise you're not really reporting the truth.

Like the judge said (as quoted previously) :

quote:
''Teaching staff will be aware that a minority of scientists disagree with the central thesis that climate change over the past half-century is mainly attributable to man-made greenhouse gases. However, the High Court has made clear the law does not require teaching staff to adopt a position of neutrality between views which accord with the great majority of scientific opinion and those which do not.''
You can understand another persons point of view and also not neccesarily accept it. What a few readers of this thread don't seem to understand is that there is a growing number of people who are questioning the orthodoxy and veracity of CC/GW.

Those who do not accept the status quo may do so for a number of reasons, there will be scientific ones, philosphical ones and a mix of the two and yes plain good old ''flat earthers'' too. [Yipee] [Yipee] [Yipee]

The original thread referred to Lord Monkton and whilst I am unsure whether the 'bandwagon' of eco-fascism will usher in a 'new world order' and a global government; it is right to question and to challenge said bandwagon IMO.

Personally I am not a scientist, but as a young man I instinctively felt uncomfortable with evolution and the social and human consequences that its views elicited. So I have a sceptical predisposition anyway. My feeling is that mans influence on the planet whilst significant, is not as large as the Goreites would have us believe; but like I said much of my reactionary attitude is instinctive and ''knee jerk'' to a degree. I feel Gore et al are not the 'holders of truth' and Gore and his chums could well be causing people to go on an uneccesary guilt trip.

I am clear that we should be good stewards of God's creation and the traditional western capitalist (should I say protestant work ethic)view has often disregarded the planet as a throwaway exploitable commodity. We must look after God's gift to us, but equally we mustn't be running around scared sh**less, accepting IMO unproven science and also accepting the social programmes and legislation that seem to follow on from the GW/CC bandwagon.

As i said previously, I don't see an Illuminati conspiracies under every bed; but equally, I am aware that unbelieving man needs a 'cause' and a 'belief' and if that cause or belief is not divine, well, it can then be based on man and man alone (secular humanism). I would argue that say fascism and Marxism are examples of where God was put out of the equation so to speak and you can see the results in the 20th century.

Thus I am just adding a note of caution to the bandwagon as it rolls onward and upward. Thats all. I feel uncomfortable with it all and I lodge a personal note of caution to Gore and his ilk. I respect others views, but don't necessarily accept them.

Saul [Biased]

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Luigi:
I am almost tempted to take Saul to the main library of any university in the UK, clear off the shelves of all the science books and papers that his position totally writes off (as a YECie and Climate Change Denier).

There's a quite staggering amount of data to support an old Earth, a lot of it is quite comprehensible for non-scientists, and virtually all of it fits together beautifully. There's nothing to support it being 6000 years old.

AGW is far less certain, and the evidence is much harder for us lay people to make sense of. We can't prove climate change in the way we can prove an old Earth - we have to trust the experts. That's becoming very unpopular.

If someone writes off the whole of geology, biology and cosmology since the 19th century because of religious preconceptions, it's hard to see what evidence would persuade them of climate change.

My guess is that for most of the world, nothing will be persuasive until rising temperatures make life very nasty. That's how human tick: we don't react until a problem is obvious. Then we'll have another 60-ish years of warming locked into the system, plus whatever feedbacks are kicking in.

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Buzz Lightyear
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Hi folks

I've lurked on this board for long enough. Saul has finally got me going, where even Myrrh's posts couldn't.

First of all, to Alan C, Hiro, Sanityman, and many others. It has not been a waste of time engaging with the arguments of those who don't seem to be willing to deal with the science: I'm sure I'm not the only lurker who has gained immensely from the sensible and patient way you have dealt with the debates, and the links you have provided have really helped me to understand things more clearly.

And so, to Saul. In the 1980s I was a member of the Biblical Creation Society. Since then, I have not lessened my view on the authority of Scripture, but I cannot hold to a Young Earth. Living and walking in Scotland makes this particularly difficult - I don't think God lies, and the rocks show his handiwork. Modern geology owes a great deal to committed Christians in Scotland, like Miller from Cromarty.

Anyway, there are two different approaches you need to be aware of for a conservative evangangelical understanding of science. Reading the past is not as straightforward as interpreting the present. We cannot (yet, anyway) repeat the large-scale conditions of the past in order to demonstrate the mechanisms of, say, evolution; however, we can demonstrate the mechanisms of greenhouse gases, we can measure what is happening in our atmosphere, we can test computer models against reality.

This puts AGW on a different footing from evolutionary theory. Sadly, across the pond many of our colleagues assume that it's all part of the same liberal conspiracy.

As a pretty conservative Christian with some scientific understanding, I cannot see any room to reject the reality of climate change caused by vastly increased greenhouse gases, produced by human interference - mainly fossil fuels and cement manufacture.

It's time for us all to do something about it - this is the Biblical response to the reality we face.

Sorry for a long first post, but I want to try to engage with Saul. I guess there will be more to follow.

Yours

Buzz

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Coming soon...

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Mr Clingford
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Welcome, Buzz, and thank you for an excellent first post.

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Hiro's Leap

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Welcome the Ship Buzz Lghtyear, and nice screen name!

I'm delighted you've found the posts here helpful. Quite often I wonder if anyone's reading still, or if it's just us regulars going round and round. It's very encouraging to think discussion can make a difference.

Hope you enjoy your stay here. Climate change arguments got me to register too, but I soon got hooked into a load of other endless but fun debates too.

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