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» Ship of Fools   » Ship's Locker   » Limbo   » Purgatory: Is "climate change" being used to bring in a global Govenment? (Page 19)

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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: Is "climate change" being used to bring in a global Govenment?
MerlintheMad
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# 12279

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It seems obvious and inevitable, at this point, that both sides are not going to convince each other that the data they believe in is whacked.

This thread is entering the same circular arguments, resorting to the same sources, as the other recent threads on AGCC; with the same personal attacks being leveled.

But the OP question looms larger if what Myrrh says, about Ireland levying gasoline and oil taxes to "pay for" CO2 consumption, is true. It seems that the "danger" of Carbon Credits as a new currency is no longer a danger but a growing reality: a whole new scam for those who have positioned themselves to get rich off the developed nations.

Is there any way to stop this and reverse the damage already done?...

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Imaginary Friend

Real to you
# 186

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quote:
Originally posted by MerlintheMad:
It seems that the "danger" of Carbon Credits as a new currency is no longer a danger but a growing reality: a whole new scam for those who have positioned themselves to get rich off the developed nations.

That's a typo, surely?

quote:
Originally posted by MerlintheMad:
Is there any way to stop this and reverse the damage already done?...

What damage do you mean? If you're talking about the damage done to the climate system, then no I don't think there is a way to repair it.

--------------------
"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

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MerlintheMad
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# 12279

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What typo? The developed nations are being milked for Carbon Credit's turned into cash.

And this can and ought to be exposed for what it is: political brigandage. The rich in the world (like Gore) can pay for their CO2 footy-prints without noticing a thing; whereas peons like Myrrh and myself who live miles away from the amenities, on limited or even fixed incomes, will surely notice any added tax (extortion) and feel the pinch palpably.

The Earth will do what she will do: man can adapt or perish.

Our so-called (asserted) destruction of the planet is far more serious and real in the areas of over-population, killing forests and dumping real pollutants everywhere.

CO2 "poisoning" is a hyped-up scam....

[ 27. December 2009, 16:57: Message edited by: MerlintheMad ]

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QLib

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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
And there's still zilch understanding about computer models.

I don't know much about computer modelling of climate change, it's true. I taught GCSE Computer Studies for a few years way back in the previous millennium - but it's quite clear that even that small smattering place me several leagues in front of you on that score. Your apparent assumption that the GIGO rule is going to come as a revelation to the rest of us shows how you constantly underestimate the people with whom you are supposed to be trying to engage.

As for Thatcher - her position on climate change was and is irrelevant - but. for all her faults (and God knows there were plenty), she was a scientist, so she was at least capable of understanding the arguments.

--------------------
Tradition is the handing down of the flame, not the worship of the ashes Gustav Mahler.

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Buzz Lightyear
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As a newby, I'm a bit hesitant about engaging with Myrrh, but I followed her link to the AIRS Satellite data on CO2 and was a bit confused. If correct - and this is still being checked - AIRS does show that CO2 mixing is not complete. However, it does show 365 - 380 ppm of CO2 in the Troposphere. That's 8km above sea level. That's a long way up for such a high concentration of CO2? Why didn't it all sink below the 8km level, being heavier than air?
Another small thing to correct: I start running out of Oxygen if I climb Mount Everest not because the ratio of O2 is any less, but because the air itself is thinner: there's less of all the gases. O2 is still nearly 20% of the air. (By the way, jets fly a lot higher, and their engines need Oxygen to burn their fuel...)

Yours in haste

Buzz

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Coming soon...

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Imaginary Friend

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# 186

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quote:
Originally posted by Buzz Lightyear:
If correct - and this is still being checked - AIRS does show that CO2 mixing is not complete.

However, it does show (when you look at the scale) that the maximum variation in concentration is less than 5% of the minimum value. That's not a huge difference.

--------------------
"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by MerlintheMad:
It seems that the "danger" of Carbon Credits as a new currency is no longer a danger but a growing reality

Well, it seems odd to call something that has existed for half a decade as "a growing reality".

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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MerlintheMad
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"Existing", as in defined; and "existing", as in implemented and becoming a growing concern, are two different things. I know that I hear of things often after "everyone" else knows about them: but I hadn't actually heard that it was becoming a commonplace for nations of the "West" to apply "carbon debt" taxation already: I thot it was still in the talking stages. Isn't that one of the main things that Copenhagen was supposed to do? (increase/implement that sort of "taxation" among all the developed nations)....
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pjkirk
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I saw this from Rook in the 2006 thread where Myrrh called Marvin to Hell:
quote:
1. Say stupid shit about a divisive topic.
2. Ignore any real attempt at conversation.
3. Deliberately misinterpret what anyone else says, vilifying everyone with shotgun comments.
4. Say stupid shit about specific people, and emulate steps 2 and 3.
5. Go to 1.

And it keeps going round and round because there's always some dumbass who is momentarily blinded to the utter predictability of the cycle.

http://forum.ship-of-fools.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=70;t=001366;p=11#000543

This seems a very good summation.

Myrrh,

You have progressed from eccentric to stubborn to rude to very insulting in this thread.

Your sources are shite.
Your arguments are shite.
Your conclusions are shite.

You have created arguments that require more suspension of disbelief than most sci-fi movies, and in doing so seem to have exhausted the patience of some of the smartest members of the boards. You have also then unjustly impugned their credentials. I'd like to invite you to the hell-call thread currently starring you.

This seems to be par for the course for your history here though - I just wasn't aware of any history when this thread started.

Sadly, I posted in it, and I may not have the self-control to avoid such in the future again.

[ 28. December 2009, 05:15: Message edited by: pjkirk ]

--------------------
Dear God, I would like to file a bug report -- Randall Munroe (http://xkcd.com/258/)

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by MerlintheMad:
"Existing", as in defined; and "existing", as in implemented and becoming a growing concern, are two different things.

"Emissions Trading" has been in existance within Europe since 2005. We're currently half way through the second cycle of the scheme, with plans to advance the scheme (to include additional sectors of the economy including aviation, and reduce the free allowance emitters get) developing for the third cycle starting in 2011. It's a key part of the European strategy to reduce carbon emissions. There are some significant questions about how effective it's been, and whether the implementation could have been handled better. But, it exists and presumably those who are considering similar schemes will have looked at the European model in some detail.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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Clint Boggis
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quote:
Originally posted by pjkirk:

Myrrh,

Your sources are shite.
Your arguments are shite.
Your conclusions are shite.

You have created arguments that require more suspension of disbelief than most sci-fi movies...

Yep, all true and that's one of the problems of allowing free speech: people can say what they like, within the rules even when it's worthless verbiage with almost no basis in reality and no discrimination between good and bad sources.

It seems to me that this discussion is a microcosm of the wider pro/anti-AGW debate: everyone's got an opinion; some are better-informed than others and some are louder than others but the 'antis' make a quantity of noise quite out of proportion to their numbers or the weight of their argument.

The danger is that observers may believe the two sides should be accorded something like equal validity based on the 'noise levels' rather than the arguments and the evidence. I suggested a parallel with a medical conference being disrupted by a gatecrasher ranting that they've all got it wrong and should give homeopathy a chance.

But I don't want to be accused of stifling debate or gagging those who want to tell us we're being duped for the purposes of bringing a global government - so do carry on Myrrh and others. I can't imagine you're holding back some killer piece of information so presumably you've given us your best, most persuasive material already.

I'm just glad of the (carbon-)free entertainment.
.

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
Stop pretending you're a scientist.

This happened during my Christmas break and initially I missed the significance of it on my return. In view of the temperature of this thread, I'm going to give rather more explanation than usual in this Host post.

Host Hat On

Any Shipmate can criticise posts as much as they like and expect to receive reciprocal treatment. Any Shipmate can hand out general broadsides about any particular category of employment or vocation. In general, neither of these constitutes a rule violation in Purgatory.

But the above crosses the line into personal abuse. It is a Commandment 3 violation. Don't do that again in Purg, Myrrh. You are accusing a specific Shipmate of pretence. Whether you intended it or not, that is the same as saying "you are a liar". It is no defence to argue that you have produced your own definition of a "real scientist". You did not use the word "real". It is also a matter of public record that you are wrong. Alan Cresswell is a very well qualified scientist (a first class honours degree and a PhD in Physics) and is employed in scientific research.

You have the option of taking any personal issues to Hell. You have the option of taking any complaint about this post to the Styx. Do not post about either of these options in Purgatory. Take action on the other Boards if you wish.

Any repetition of personal insult, or any ignoring of the above directions will earn you a Commandment 6 violation report from me to the Admin.

Barnabas62
Purgatory Host

Host Hat Off


--------------------
Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Sleepwalker
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# 15343

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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
I'm just glad of the (carbon-)free entertainment.

Are you running your computer/phone/whatever gadget on wind power or something? If so, I'd like to know how to do it, please!
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Clint Boggis
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# 633

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Welcome to the Ship, Sleepwalker.

No,nothing fancy or particularly green - though obviously that would be better. If I wasn't here on this thread being entertained, I might be elsewhere online or getting on with other activities needing my computer.

All the energy used by my PC ends up as heat, which as it's winter is not wasted but heats the room slightly. Since the electricity does come largely from fossil fuel (except the nuclear power component) which is bad and adds CO2, but so does my gas central heating. If the PC was turned off and I did nothing else, I'd need (guessing) 120W more heating, so I'm saying my use of it makes no difference in winter and is therefore carbon-free.

In the summer any excess heat is a waste and my rationalisation is not valid.
.

[ 28. December 2009, 11:21: Message edited by: Clint Boggis ]

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Saul the Apostle
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Given the original title of this thread, that is, climate change and world government, I thought this short clip by Dr. William Happer of Princeton University USA, was telling....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg-frkJBxm4

The parallels, IMO, to George Orwell's works (Animal Farm and Nineteen eighty four)are fascinating to behold.

Whatever ones ''side'' in this debate, it has now a momentum all of its own. I am a sceptic and have made my ideological refutations clear.

Saul

--------------------
"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."

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tclune
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quote:
Originally posted by pjkirk:
I saw this from Rook in the 2006 thread where Myrrh called Marvin to Hell:

Hostly Hat ON
Hellish behavior is not allowed in Purgatory. Quoting from an old Hell thread is not an acceptable way of weaseling out of that proscription. Do not do this kind of thing again.

--Tom Clune, Purgatory Host
Hostly Hat OFF

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This space left blank intentionally.

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pjkirk
Shipmate
# 10997

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quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
quote:
Originally posted by pjkirk:
I saw this from Rook in the 2006 thread where Myrrh called Marvin to Hell:

Hostly Hat ON
Hellish behavior is not allowed in Purgatory. Quoting from an old Hell thread is not an acceptable way of weaseling out of that proscription. Do not do this kind of thing again.

--Tom Clune, Purgatory Host
Hostly Hat OFF

Apologies.

--------------------
Dear God, I would like to file a bug report -- Randall Munroe (http://xkcd.com/258/)

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Myrrh
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# 11483

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:

And by questioning the claim that CO2 is 'well mixed' in the atmosphere, because of such things as its weight relative to oxygen and nitrogen which make up practically 100% of the atmosphere, and, as obvious to every mountain climber and I thought well known generally, even oxygen isn't 'well mixed' the higher one goes..

[Killing me]


After such an obvious "clunker", why should anyone take these posts seriously?

Why is this a "clunker"? I hope you're not thinking of taking up mountaineering, you'd be in for a shock, if not death. The world is not as modelled by these game boys, clouds exist, the atmosphere is not well mixed.

This is the problem, as the Transtronics URL noted, that the models miss out on the basics like, duh, it gets colder at higher elevations.

"None of the models I've read about can explain the lack of elevated temperatures at higher elevation."

And then they show surprise that they have to junk 30 years of modeling ...

..and in these 30 years there hasn't been one bright spark among them to even question why their models could never match the past and have never predicted the future?

Well Barnabas, that may well impress you as science, but you have ended up believing in an earth's climate that does not exist in our physical reality.

I find myself increasingly baffled by the mindless stupidity of the models which throw out basic principles and well known properties for this strange reality, which now for so many is whatever the models say it is. Be sure to tune into your control stations every morning to be told what your new physical reality is for the day, and who your new enemy is.

It's as if the basic well known principles in cookery have been junked by some calling themselves expert chefs, say by throwing out the rising properties of eggs or bicarb and deciding that salt has this property and replaces them. How so many have become convinced that doubling the quantity of salt will create a cake that will expand to fill the whole oven and even burst the door open, is beyond my wildest imagination.

The AGW hypothesis is falsified before it even begins to be modelled. The models have confirmed this falsification for thirty years, never having even approximated real climate.

If anyone here seriously thinks we need these models to understand our climate or that further tweaking in AGW maths physics and biology will improve our understanding of climate, they have it the wrong way round.

Garbage in will always result in garbage out.

A scientist who accepts models created out of the garbage of the imagined AGW physics is not a scientist, and as before, any scientist who thinks it reasonable and valid to use deliberately manipulated data to establish a hypothesis, as here with the rewritten temperature history, is not a scientist.

Regardless how high he has got in his profession or how many honours he's acquired. This coterie of non-scientists promoting the idiocy of AGW hypothesis goes all the way up to the top.


Myrrh

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Crœsos
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# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:

And by questioning the claim that CO2 is 'well mixed' in the atmosphere, because of such things as its weight relative to oxygen and nitrogen which make up practically 100% of the atmosphere, and, as obvious to every mountain climber and I thought well known generally, even oxygen isn't 'well mixed' the higher one goes..

[Killing me]


After such an obvious "clunker", why should anyone take these posts seriously?

Why is this a "clunker"? I hope you're not thinking of taking up mountaineering, you'd be in for a shock, if not death. The world is not as modelled by these game boys, clouds exist, the atmosphere is not well mixed.


Myrrh

It's a clunker because you have confused a decrease total atmospheric density with a decrease in oxygen proportion. There is less oxygen at higher altitude because the air is less dense, not because the mix of oxygen to nitrogen is different.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:

And by questioning the claim that CO2 is 'well mixed' in the atmosphere, because of such things as its weight relative to oxygen and nitrogen which make up practically 100% of the atmosphere, and, as obvious to every mountain climber and I thought well known generally, even oxygen isn't 'well mixed' the higher one goes..

[Killing me]


After such an obvious "clunker", why should anyone take these posts seriously?

Why is this a "clunker"? I hope you're not thinking of taking up mountaineering, you'd be in for a shock, if not death.

Myrrh

This is my last try on issues of elementary science. Read Buzz Lightyear above. Here's the quote.

quote:
I start running out of Oxygen if I climb Mount Everest not because the ratio of O2 is any less, but because the air itself is thinner: there's less of all the gases. O2 is still nearly 20% of the air. (By the way, jets fly a lot higher, and their engines need Oxygen to burn their fuel...)
On the basis of the extract I quoted from you above, you don't understand the elementary difference between atmospheric pressure and atmospheric composition. That is your "clunker", your failure, your flop. That is what is so laughable about that quote.

Your lack of understanding needs correcting. Along with a very large number of other misconceptions, as demonstrated by your posts.

--------------------
Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Myrrh
Shipmate
# 11483

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Shrug. You can lead a horse to water..

The Atmosphere is not Standard Dry Air.

Myrrh

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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Continuing on the subject of climate models, here's an information sheet about the Hadley models (I'm not sure why it hasn't been updated in almost 10 years though). It should be simple enough for most people to understand. As you can see, the models (even a decade ago) include such factors as clouds, heat transfer in the atmosphere columns and between columns, the oceans and biosphere ... in fact, basically everything you need to model the climate from first principles. Unlike earlier models that were severely limited due to computational resource, the latest models don't need artificially introduced fluxes to maintain stability. They aren't perfect, of course, but predict the major features of the climate with a decent degree of accuracy. Despite what some cranks may want to say to the contrary.

--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
Shrug. You can lead a horse to water..

You can say that again.

quote:


The Atmosphere is not Standard Dry Air.


We agree. It is proper to draw that distinction. But the percentage of oxygen in the real atmosphere remains pretty constant in the troposphere, and that is the only point that matters when considering altitude hypoxia. It is the reduction in pressure (at the top of Everest it is down to about 30% of sea level) which is the root cause of altitude hypoxia, not any marginal variation in the percentage of oxygen at different atmospheric heights.

Here is an article on high altitude sickness. And here is a nice one-sentence quote from it.
quote:
As one ascends through the atmosphere, barometric pressure decreases (though the air still contains 21% oxygen) and thus every breath contains fewer and fewer molecules of oxygen.


--------------------
Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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sanityman
Shipmate
# 11598

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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
Welcome to the Ship, Sleepwalker.

No,nothing fancy or particularly green - though obviously that would be better. If I wasn't here on this thread being entertained, I might be elsewhere online or getting on with other activities needing my computer.

All the energy used by my PC ends up as heat, which as it's winter is not wasted but heats the room slightly. Since the electricity does come largely from fossil fuel (except the nuclear power component) which is bad and adds CO2, but so does my gas central heating. If the PC was turned off and I did nothing else, I'd need (guessing) 120W more heating, so I'm saying my use of it makes no difference in winter and is therefore carbon-free.

In the summer any excess heat is a waste and my rationalisation is not valid.
.

Hi Clint,

I was hoping to cook up some numbers on carbon costs, but in the absence of time, a bit of handwaving: your boiler (if a modern condensing type) is about 90% efficient in converting fossil fuel to heat. Unfortunately, your electricity is made up of approximately 40% coal (about 35% generation efficiency) and 40% natural gas (about 50% efficient). The remaining 20% is nuclear, with a bit of renewables - negligible carbon cost compared with fossil fuels. You then have around 7% transmission losses to get the juice to your computer. All in all, it takes about 2 units of fossil fuel to give you one unit of heat from your PC, compared to 1.1 from your boiler. This is ignoring the fact that the carbon footprint from coal is substantially more than that from natural gas, which makes it worse.

Of course, my office is heated in the same way, (I currently have a power meter on my PC: it's eating 130W as I type this, not counting the screen). It works, it's just inefficient. I'm assuming you've turned your thermostat down to compensate, of course, and aren't just being a bit warmer [Biased] .

Enviro-fact of the day: putting your PC on "low power" standby mode reduces power consumption by something like 7% (being generous - not counting switching the screen off). If you want to save electricity, you have to turn it off. Sorry!

Question (to anyone, not just Clint!): The UK's make-up of power stations doesn't change if I switch to a "100% renewables" tariff - my supply is still generated 40% from coal! Should changing my billing provider give me a license to leave bar fires on all day without worrying about the carbon cost, or should it make no difference? In short, is changing to a "green" tariff anything more than accounting?

- Chris.

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Prophesy to the wind, to the wind only for only the wind will listen - TS Eliot

Posts: 1453 | From: London, UK | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged
QLib

Bad Example
# 43

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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
Garbage in will always result in garbage out.

Yes. You say it, but you don't (evidently) hear it. You should be more careful about what you read on the internet. And then try doing the processing bit with an open mind. Or change the program, because a faulty algorithm will also result in garbage out.

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Tradition is the handing down of the flame, not the worship of the ashes Gustav Mahler.

Posts: 8913 | From: Page 28 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Myrrh
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# 11483

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As I said, the Atmosphere is not equal to standard dry air. At 10,000 ft the atmosphere is 50% of that found at sea level. (http://www.outdoorplaces.com/Features/Mountain/altitude/page1.htm)


quote:
“At oxygen concentrations [in air] of 4 to 6%, there is loss of consciousness in 40 seconds and death within a few minutes” (DiMaio & DiMaio 2001:231). As this procedure provides an atmosphere completely devoid of oxygen, the sequence of effects should be expected to occur even more quickly. At an altitude greater than 43,000 ft (13,000 m), where the ambient oxygen concentration is equivalent to 3.6% at sea level, an average individual is able to perform flying duties efficiently for only 9 to 12 seconds without oxygen supplementation (Fisher n.d.). The US Air Force trains air crews to recognize their individual subjective signs of approaching hypoxia. Nitrogen Asphyxiation
I'll leave you to work out what that does to planes.

My point, through all of this, is that the scenarios created by the models do not reflect reality, not in any way. They are imaginary worlds made up of imaginary physics, chemistry and biology. They are falsified in all the range of their claims. The scope of these claims takes us into various and disparate areas of life, and so the examples of how the AGW hypothesis is falsified are therefore varied.

When I first began exploring this, being somewhat familiar with graphs, my bullshit warning sounded the moment I saw a graph from the 1800's which claimed this period was what 'constituted our normal global temperature'. It is dishonest to take the temperature of the LIA as 'our norm'. Of course, the more I explored the more I found that this is what the Hockey Stick was designed to promote, with the expressed intent of wiping out other recent high global temperatures such as the MIA. It was downhill from there on, the higher the bullshit level the more I descended to reality.

Here's a problem from the real world of ambient air:

quote:
Mexico City’s air has gone from among the world’s cleanest to among the dirtiest in the span of a generation. Novelist Carlos Fuentes first novel took place here in 1959 and was entitled "Where the air is clear" - a title he has said is ironic considering the city’s now –soupy environment.
The average visibility of some 100 km in 1940s is down to about 1.5 km. Snow-capped volcanoes (Popocatepetl, Ixtacihuatl, and Paricutin) that were once parts of the landscape are now visible only rarely (fig.1.2). And levels of almost any pollutant like nitrogen dioxide (NO2) now regularly break international standards by two to three times. Levels of ozone (O3), a pollutant that protects us from solar radiation in the upper atmosphere but is dangerous to breathe, are twice as high here as the maximum allowed limit for one hour a year and this occurs several hours per day every day ..

..
The most important air pollutant of Mexico City are ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), precursors like nitrogen oxides (NOX), hydrocarbons (HC), and carbon monoxide (CO), that originate from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels. At these altitudes, the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2) is far lower than at sea level, thus combustion is far from ideal. Most of the energy consumed in this city is related to urban transportation. A very important source of air pollution is gas exhaust from private vehicles.
The image on the right shows drastically how the prevailing atmospheric conditions affect Mexico City. A change in the temperature stratification within higher altitudes of the atmosphere hinders exhaust gases to escape the valley. Such situations and the massive generation of toxic gases can alter the trapped air into a harmful cocktail...

In the atmosphere, nitric oxide is oxidized to nitrogen dioxide, which is a major constituent of smog:


N2 + O2 → 2NO
(w/n the combustion engine)
Smog appears brown partly because it absorbs sunlight at wavelengths less than 400 nm.


Mexico Air

All to say that any idea of CO2 being well mixed in the atmosphere is loony, nothing is well mixed. Climate is dynamic and AGW reduces this to at best a two dimensional reality.

And that AGW ignores the actual role of water vapour, which is lighter than air and can trap heat, is added insult. The real flat-earthers.

Anyway, I'm getting extremely bored with this AGW fantasy science and if I post again it will be re the OP.


Myrrh

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and thanks for all the fish

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Myrrh
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agghh, for MIA read MWP..

M

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and thanks for all the fish

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:

Anyway, I'm getting extremely bored with this AGW fantasy science and if I post again it will be re the OP.

[Draws a veil over what preceded this quote]

Well, that's good news! A New Year's resolution we hope you can keep.

--------------------
Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Continuing on the subject of climate models, here's an information sheet about the Hadley models (I'm not sure why it hasn't been updated in almost 10 years though). It should be simple enough for most people to understand. As you can see, the models (even a decade ago) include such factors as clouds, heat transfer in the atmosphere columns and between columns, the oceans and biosphere ... in fact, basically everything you need to model the climate from first principles. Unlike earlier models that were severely limited due to computational resource, the latest models don't need artificially introduced fluxes to maintain stability. They aren't perfect, of course, but predict the major features of the climate with a decent degree of accuracy. Despite what some cranks may want to say to the contrary.

That's very helpful, Alan, and quite timely for me. In my working life I spent a fair bit of time developing and using (obviously much simpler) models for operational research purposes and got some idea thereby of the general principles and practices involved in such model building. (I remember one I was involved with which was very helpful in optimising the siting of warehouses.)

So I'd been looking into climate change models out of general curiosity, and had found this link on the BBC Website which seems, at least to this layman, to cover similar ground in a pretty accessible way. Being visual, I liked the graphics in the link.

It seems pretty clear that development and verification of these models is ongoing (as it always is), so I guess that the link you quote is probably in need of an update. But of course they have bigger fish to fry. Plus the usual resource challenges which face a smallish unit.

No doubt the published results of model useage include various levels of sensitivity testing - indeed there may already be some info about that on this thread? (Apologies in advance to those who may have already posted such info).

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
So I'd been looking into climate change models out of general curiosity, and had found this link on the BBC Website

I've plugged it already, but IMO Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming is a must-read for us non-experts who are seriously interested in climate. Relevant chapters in this case are:It's fascinating seeing the theory of AGW develop over the decades, and gives a much broader understanding than just reading a book about the current science.
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Barnabas62
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Many thanks, Hiro.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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sanityman
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Many thanks, Hiro.

Seconded. Incidentally, following your recommendation, I've just got Greg Craven's book for Christmas! Haven't read it yet though...

- Chris.

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Prophesy to the wind, to the wind only for only the wind will listen - TS Eliot

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Clint Boggis
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quote:
Originally posted by sanityman:
Hi Clint,

I was hoping to cook up some numbers on carbon costs, but in the absence of time, a bit of handwaving: your boiler (if a modern condensing type) is about 90% efficient in converting fossil fuel to heat. Unfortunately, your electricity is made up of approximately 40% coal (about 35% generation efficiency) and 40% natural gas (about 50% efficient). The remaining 20% is nuclear, with a bit of renewables - negligible carbon cost compared with fossil fuels. You then have around 7% transmission losses to get the juice to your computer. All in all, it takes about 2 units of fossil fuel to give you one unit of heat from your PC, compared to 1.1 from your boiler. This is ignoring the fact that the carbon footprint from coal is substantially more than that from natural gas, which makes it worse.

Thanks for the figures Chris. I was aware that generation of electricity from fossil fuels is rather inefficient and therefore not the best thing if you just want heat. I didn't know we still generate 40% from coal. (I've just heard on the radio that nuclear power is ~50% efficient, though it doesn't affect CO2.)

You're right - using my PC is not carbon-free, but the 'waste' energy saves some carbon as my heating is used a bit less (in winter but not summer). I need solar panels, I think.

quote:
I'm assuming you've turned your thermostat down to compensate, of course, and aren't just being a bit warmer. [Biased]
In return for your correction, let me offer you one. It's often suggested that if you make some change, such as better insulation, you can turn your thermostat down. While this would be a positive step, it just means choosing to live in a cooler house. I assume you don't fiddle with your thermostat depending on the weather - you just let it keep your house at the temperature you choose.

I turn my PC off at the wall. Since measuring the power consumption of various equipment, I'm suspicious of 'standby'. My PVR uses almost the same power in 'standby' but I couldn't turn it off as it wouldn't get software updates or update the EPG. Stupid system!
.

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QLib

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And, if she bothers to follow the links, I'm sure Myrrh will be relieved, as well as (no doubt) incredibly surprised, to learn that these expert climatologists do have some understanding of the importance of water vapor or 'cloud'* as they like to call it. Whether their depth of understanding is equal to hers is another matter,

*arrogant bastards - trying to blind us to the Real Truth™ with their quasi-religious scientific terminology.

--------------------
Tradition is the handing down of the flame, not the worship of the ashes Gustav Mahler.

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Myrrh
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
Shrug. You can lead a horse to water..

You can say that again.

quote:


The Atmosphere is not Standard Dry Air.


We agree. It is proper to draw that distinction. But the percentage of oxygen in the real atmosphere remains pretty constant in the troposphere, and that is the only point that matters when considering altitude hypoxia. It is the reduction in pressure (at the top of Everest it is down to about 30% of sea level) which is the root cause of altitude hypoxia, not any marginal variation in the percentage of oxygen at different atmospheric heights.

Here is an article on high altitude sickness. And here is a nice one-sentence quote from it.
quote:
As one ascends through the atmosphere, barometric pressure decreases (though the air still contains 21% oxygen) and thus every breath contains fewer and fewer molecules of oxygen.

Not the new year yet, so let's try and clear this point up. Who here can tell us how far apart the molecules are at the different altitudes so we can work out when we'd stop having any oxygen molecule within breathable distance around us?

I've seen a few examples of this kind of presentation as you've written. One was describing the need for oxygen supplementation at a particular altitude and saying an extra 1% needed and adding, as you have in brackets, that oxygen is 21%. If oxygen is already at 21%, why the need for the extra which would bring it to 22%?

Myrrh

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Imaginary Friend

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Myrrh, can you tell us what the word 'concentration' means and define the concept of percentage for us, so that we are all on the same page as each other. Thanks.

--------------------
"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

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Myrrh
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What does Barnabas mean by 21% in his statement?

Myrrh

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Imaginary Friend

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That molecular oxygen comprises 21 parts in every 100 of tropospheric air.

Would you care to answer my question now?

--------------------
"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

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Myrrh
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And how much air is there at different altitudes?

Myrrh

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Imaginary Friend

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No, Myrrh, I'm not going to play your games. If you actually knew what words like 'concentration' and 'pressure' meant, and understood the concept of a percentage, then you would see why the concentration of oxygen has to be increased to create a breathable atmosphere at high altitude.

However, you seem not to have any understanding of these (incredibly basic) concepts, and your refusal to answer my direct question only highlights that. So come on, prove me wrong. Do some thinking and tell me "why the need for the extra which would bring it to 22%". It's really not that hard.

--------------------
"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough

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Christian Agnostic
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I know that I'm stating the obvious [Snore] , but what's charming and maddening about web debates is they don't happen in "real time" and tend toward intellectual "mudwrestling". On the subject of AGW, I would like to see a more structured point/counterpoint debate than a free-for-all. But I know it ain't gonna happen here. [Biased]

I've already had a run-in with NJA, and pretty much know what his agenda is. He's just a premillenarian pentacostal who wants to convince us heathens that we are in the "end times" (NJA, we've been in the end times for a couple of thousand years [brick wall] )And, of course, this distracts folks from looking for the anti-christs who are already on the ground.

Myrrh I'm not to sure of. [Confused] So,for the sake of clarity, Myrrh would you answer the following question:

What are your thoughts and feelings about Objectivism and its' author Ayn Rand? [Confused]

--------------------
Words to the wise: Don't read Kierkegaard when you're 16, and always set B.S. detectors to 11. "How can I sing a strange song in the Lord's land?"

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Christian Agnostic:
Myrrh I'm not to sure of. [Confused] So,for the sake of clarity, Myrrh would you answer the following question:

What are your thoughts and feelings about Objectivism and its' author Ayn Rand? [Confused]

I'd be very surprised if Myrrh was a fan of Ayn Rand. Myrrh genuinely seems to want to advocate for the victims and the disposed; she sees AGW as a myth created by the powerful to oppress the powerless.

The irony is that these sorts of fears make it less likely we'll reduce carbon, and so we'll be in for some really big shocks a bit further down the road - exactly the sort of circumstances which will create social disorder and hence tyranny.

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Barnabas62
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Wait. A penny may be about to drop ....

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Wait. A penny may be about to drop ....

If only we could harvest your optimism as a fuel source. [Big Grin]

sanityman - I'd be interested to hear what you think of Greg Craven's book, and if it's as engaging as his video.

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by sanityman:
Question (to anyone, not just Clint!): The UK's make-up of power stations doesn't change if I switch to a "100% renewables" tariff - my supply is still generated 40% from coal! Should changing my billing provider give me a license to leave bar fires on all day without worrying about the carbon cost, or should it make no difference? In short, is changing to a "green" tariff anything more than accounting?

AIUI, a "100% renewables" tariff should mean that for every kWh you use your provider will by 1kWh from a renewable source. In practice there's likely to be some get out clause in the event of renewable generation being insufficient to meet the demand of all those on such a tariff.

The effect of such tariffs is to increase the demand for renewable generation. Which, in simple market economy terms, should encourage investment in the construction of additional renewable generation capacity, and reduce the pressure on the construction of additional non-renewable capacity. Of course, in the UK at least, the market is already slightly skewed by government policy which dictates that power companies should provide a minimum percentage of electricity from renewable sources, and imposes some additional charges on fossil fuels to subsidise nuclear and renewable generation.

So, yes your "100% renewables" tariff should be making a small difference to the future proportion of renewal:non-renewable generation, even if the current ratio is largely fixed by what we currently have built.

--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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sanityman
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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
quote:
I'm assuming you've turned your thermostat down to compensate, of course, and aren't just being a bit warmer. [Biased]
In return for your correction, let me offer you one. It's often suggested that if you make some change, such as better insulation, you can turn your thermostat down. While this would be a positive step, it just means choosing to live in a cooler house. I assume you don't fiddle with your thermostat depending on the weather - you just let it keep your house at the temperature you choose.
Good point. I realised after I posted that I didn't mean "turn thermostat down" - and you're quite right about the "cooler house" bit, of course. Good insulation just slows the rate at which your house equilibrates to the new temperature. I'm lucky to have a modern boiler (lucky = had to replace the old one a couple of years ago), and consequently have a whizzy radio-controlled wireless thermostat thingy. What I keep forgetting to do is to take the thermostat into the room that's being heated by the PC!

My %age coal I think is a reasonable approximation, but if anyone could find accurate figures I'd be obliged. I was surprised it was still so big. From confused.com I get nPower's standard tariff mix as
  • Coal: 42.0%
  • Natural Gas: 42.0%
  • Nuclear: 8.0%
  • Renewables: 6.0%
  • Other: 2.0%
quote:
I turn my PC off at the wall. Since measuring the power consumption of various equipment, I'm suspicious of 'standby'. My PVR uses almost the same power in 'standby' but I couldn't turn it off as it wouldn't get software updates or update the EPG. Stupid system!
.

Too right! My PC measures at 8W when off, and 122W-ish when on standby. 8W 24/7/365 translates to 70kWh per year, so not totally negligible! (a modern small freezer does about 200 kWh/year).

Cheers,

- Chris.

--------------------
Prophesy to the wind, to the wind only for only the wind will listen - TS Eliot

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pjkirk
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A couple side points for Myrrh about pressure and altitude.

Air pressure decreases about 1 inch mercury per 1000 feet (100 hectopascals per 800 meters). Because of this, the primary means an aircraft has of determining their altitude is with an altimeter that works off of air pressure ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altimeter )

U2 aircraft pilots wear pressurized space suits in order to deal with the very low pressures at the altitudes they maintain (classified, but ~70,000 feet). Their cabin is partially pressurized, but only to 29,000 feet equivalent. The U2 pilots I knew said they would be pretty much instantly dead if they lost pressurization at that altitude - all the fluids in their bodies would boil away.

This, incidentally, is why boiling temperatures differ at different altitudes as well ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_altitude_cooking ).

--------------------
Dear God, I would like to file a bug report -- Randall Munroe (http://xkcd.com/258/)

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Hiro's Leap

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As I understand it, some green tariffs are entirely pointless. UK energy suppliers are legally obliged to source a proportion of their energy from renewables, and some of the 'green' tariffs simply allocate this energy to your bill. It was going to be done regardless, and hence makes no difference whatsoever.

Other energy companies do a lot better. Good Energy and Ecotricity used to be regarded as two of the best, although that was a year or two ago so the situation may have changed. Here is a more recent report.

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pjkirk
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quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
As I understand it, some green tariffs are entirely pointless. UK energy suppliers are legally obliged to source a proportion of their energy from renewables, and some of the 'green' tariffs simply allocate this energy to your bill. It was going to be done regardless, and hence makes no difference whatsoever.

That's pretty sad if it's the case.

I like how one supplier in my state does it - they set up methane generators on farms in the area based upon how many people enroll in the program. http://www.cvps.com/cowpower/

--------------------
Dear God, I would like to file a bug report -- Randall Munroe (http://xkcd.com/258/)

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by pjkirk:
That's pretty sad if it's the case.

It does seem to be the case though. By Fred Pearce last year:
quote:
In fact, we are usually subsidising the power companies to do what they are required by law to do already. Worse, despite us paying through our green noses, they still can't meet their targets. Then they rub our noses in it by selling what "green electricity" they do produce over and over again.

This is all within the law, of course. But that is because the government's green laws are a mess. In many cases, buying green electricity is not so much greenwash as a full-scale green con.

Certainly, that's the view of Virginia Graham, who six years ago drew up the first set of guidelines on green tariffs, for the industry regulator Ofgem. She is now wiser and more cynical. "It suits the companies for people to think they are getting green electricity if they sign up to green tariffs," she says. "But in most cases they are not, and people are being misled."


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