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» Ship of Fools   » Ship's Locker   » Limbo   » Purgatory: Is "climate change" being used to bring in a global Govenment? (Page 20)

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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: Is "climate change" being used to bring in a global Govenment?
Inger
Shipmate
# 15285

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quote:
My PC measures at 8W when off, and 122W-ish when on standby.
Does anyone know how a Mac in sleep mode compares? The friend who talked me into switching to a Mac claims they use almost no electricity when put in sleep mode, and I have rather been relying on its being true.
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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Wait. A penny may be about to drop ....

If only we could harvest your optimism as a fuel source. [Big Grin]


[Big Grin] Hope springs eternal ....

--------------------
Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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ken
Ship's Roundhead
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Once the electricity is on the wires you can't really tell where the individual electrons get their oomph from!

Its all mixed together. A bit like air [Biased]

--------------------
Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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sanityman
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Hiro, thanks for those links. One quote from the Buyer's Guide to Green Electricity:
quote:
Neither DEFRA nor the Carbon Trust consider green tariffs as ‘zero carbon’ at present and advise organisations to calculate emissions from renewable tariffs using the average electricity emissions factor for the UK.
I think that answers my question, unfortunately. It also gave a figure for the UK average fuel mix as:
  • Coal: 29.36
  • Natural Gas: 38.3
  • Nuclear 11.29
  • Renewable 19.27
  • Other 1.77
So a bit less coal-heavy than I assumed, and more renewables.

- Chris.

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Prophesy to the wind, to the wind only for only the wind will listen - TS Eliot

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Myrrh
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# 11483

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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
No, Myrrh, I'm not going to play your games. If you actually knew what words like 'concentration' and 'pressure' meant, and understood the concept of a percentage, then you would see why the concentration of oxygen has to be increased to create a breathable atmosphere at high altitude.

To 22%?! Why?

What's standard dry air?

quote:
However, you seem not to have any understanding of these (incredibly basic) concepts, and your refusal to answer my direct question only highlights that. So come on, prove me wrong. Do some thinking and tell me "why the need for the extra which would bring it to 22%". It's really not that hard.
Go on, explain it.

This is on par with the earlier 'sea levels are different at different places in the world, even around the same coastline, say Britain. So unable to appreciate the ridiculousness of the claim that it's sea level rise causing the swamping of some coral islands, when islands adjacent show no rise..



Myrrh

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Christian Agnostic
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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
No, Myrrh, I'm not going to play your games. If you actually knew what words like 'concentration' and 'pressure' meant, and understood the concept of a percentage, then you would see why the concentration of oxygen has to be increased to create a breathable atmosphere at high altitude.

To 22%?! Why?

What's standard dry air?

quote:
However, you seem not to have any understanding of these (incredibly basic) concepts, and your refusal to answer my direct question only highlights that. So come on, prove me wrong. Do some thinking and tell me "why the need for the extra which would bring it to 22%". It's really not that hard.
Go on, explain it.

This is on par with the earlier 'sea levels are different at different places in the world, even around the same coastline, say Britain. So unable to appreciate the ridiculousness of the claim that it's sea level rise causing the swamping of some coral islands, when islands adjacent show no rise..



Myrrh

Myrrh, are you an Objectivist or not? [Confused]

--------------------
Words to the wise: Don't read Kierkegaard when you're 16, and always set B.S. detectors to 11. "How can I sing a strange song in the Lord's land?"

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
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quote:
Originally posted by pjkirk:
U2 aircraft pilots wear pressurized space suits in order to deal with the very low pressures at the altitudes they maintain (classified, but ~70,000 feet). Their cabin is partially pressurized, but only to 29,000 feet equivalent. The U2 pilots I knew said they would be pretty much instantly dead if they lost pressurization at that altitude - all the fluids in their bodies would boil away

Is this the moment to point out that Apollo astronauts breathed pure O2, albeit at 5psi?

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Forward the New Republic

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Myrrh
Shipmate
# 11483

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Martin - for interest Maximum 'Residence' Time CO2 in Air

And as I posted earlier from IPCC, their claims extend to thousands of years, but this enough to show that their ideas about this are from imagination.


Myrrh

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
...

A scientist who accepts models created out of the garbage of the imagined AGW physics is not a scientist, and as before, any scientist who thinks it reasonable and valid to use deliberately manipulated data to establish a hypothesis, as here with the rewritten temperature history, is not a scientist.

Regardless how high he has got in his profession or how many honours he's acquired. This coterie of non-scientists promoting the idiocy of AGW hypothesis goes all the way up to the top.


Myrrh

Member Admin Tiara On

You were warned by Barnabas62 that such comments counted as personal attacks against a specific shipmate and were unacceptable in Purgatory. This post continues the same theme. You will not import Hell into Purgatory. See you in a week.

Member Admin Tiara Off

Tubbs
Member Admin

[ 29. December 2009, 21:50: Message edited by: Tubbs ]

--------------------
"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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Christian Agnostic
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# 14912

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Myrrh,
Will you answer my question? [Confused]

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Words to the wise: Don't read Kierkegaard when you're 16, and always set B.S. detectors to 11. "How can I sing a strange song in the Lord's land?"

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Hiro's Leap

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Not until 2010. Look at Tubbs' post.
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Clint Boggis
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quote:
Originally posted by Myrrh:
Martin - for interest Maximum 'Residence' Time CO2 in Air

And as I posted earlier from IPCC, their claims extend to thousands of years, but this enough to show that their ideas about this are from imagination.


Myrrh

That looks like a very convincing graph Myrrh. Someone with the appropriate knowledge would need to know rather more about the basis of all the studies (comparing like with like) before concluding that the IPCC one is the glaring odd one out it appears to be.

One comment I'd make is that as the IPCC doesn't do research but summarises research from a number of reputable sources, it makes me wonder why those sources have been omitted. If they'd been included I expect it would have shown a number of values scattered around the IPCC 'summary value'.

Could this graph possibly be deliberately misleading? Perish the thought!

[Yes, I know you can't respond.]
.

[ 29. December 2009, 22:34: Message edited by: Clint Boggis ]

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
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Residence time of fossil-fuel CO2 is in the order of "300 years plus the 25% that lasts forever" (Archer 2005, JGR - pdf )

--------------------
Forward the New Republic

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Residence time of fossil-fuel CO2 is in the order of "300 years plus the 25% that lasts forever" (Archer 2005, JGR - pdf )

Archer makes that argument partly from computer models (boo! hiss!) but also from the geological record where you can find a CO2 spike that took c.150,000 years to return to earlier levels. For simplicity, he refers to 100,000+ years as "forever", which it is in terms of human civilisation.

Any individual molecule gets circulated fairly rapidly, but the oceans are a buffered solution so when one molecule is absorbed, another is expelled.

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
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If true, it puts the IPCC's 100 years almost (considering Archer suggests ~25% of a CO2 'spike' remains after 1000y) an order of magnitude too small.

Bugger.

--------------------
Forward the New Republic

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Clint Boggis
Shipmate
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Are you comparing with what Myrrh's C3 site says the IPCC says? Do you think they're reliable?
.

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Barnabas62
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Christian Agnostic

Read Tubbs' post. Try again in a week.

All others

Ah me. The axe fell before the penny had a chance to drop.

Now how old was I when I learned the gas laws at school? 12 I think. Hands up all those who think our Shipmate-on-shore doesn't get the relationship between pressure, mass and volume of gas? O level school physics (or at least it was for me well over 50 years ago). You'd think Boyle's and Charles's laws must ring some bells?

But apparently not. Very sad.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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pjkirk
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# 10997

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Hands up all those who think our Shipmate-on-shore doesn't get the relationship between pressure, mass and volume of gas?

Hands up.

I was hoping there'd be an entertaining reply to my post about altimeters and space suits...maybe in a week.

--------------------
Dear God, I would like to file a bug report -- Randall Munroe (http://xkcd.com/258/)

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
Are you comparing with what Myrrh's C3 site says the IPCC says? Do you think they're reliable?
.

On this topic, did you see Alan Cresswell's post?

--------------------
Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
Are you comparing with what Myrrh's C3 site says the IPCC says?

After the first 20 or 30 times of following Myrrh's links and discovering what rubbish they were, I stopped clicking. Now I only read them under duress.

I'm wary of trusting David Archer's account too much because I don't know how widely accepted it is. Also, I'm not sure if the duration of atmospheric CO2 really matters - 5000 or 100,000 years is still forever. If we get through the next few hundred years without a major collapse, we'll probably be quite capable of bio-engineering something to absorb all the excess CO2 and stabilise temperature at a suitable level.

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sanityman
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# 11598

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I don't know why I have this morbid curiosity, but I've been trying to chase the references in Myrrh's graph (here).

It's interesting to note that a lot of the studies are quite old: the IPCC one is the only one from the 00s, then a couple from the 90s, several from the 80s, and quite a few from as far back as the 1950s. One of which is Suess and Revelle (1957), which is important enough to get mentioned in Spencer Weart's "Discovery of Global Warming"
quote:
As Revelle and Suess put it, "the average lifetime of a CO2 molecule in the atmosphere before it is dissolved into the sea is of the order of 10 years."
I suppose this is where they are getting the figure from.

The trouble comes if you read on:
quote:
the crucial question for global warming was a transient effect, the net flux of new CO2 into the water... In technical terms, sea water is a "buffered" solution, resisting the change in acidity that an increase of carbonates would involve. When some CO2 molecules were absorbed, their presence would alter the balance through a chain of reactions, and in the end some CO2 molecules would be expelled back into the atmosphere... While it was true that most of the CO2 molecules added to the atmosphere would wind up in the oceans within a few years, most of these molecules (or others already in the oceans) would promptly be evaporated out.
So, the 5-10 year figure quoted was thought initially to be true by its author in 1957 - when the science was in its infancy - until he discovered how other processes drastically lengthened it.

Revelle and Suess did some important work on carbon-14 depleted CO2 which is strong evidence for the fossil fuel origin of the CO2 increase. Therefore the figure is not only out of date, but the authors of those papers (Suess is quoted 4 times) do not agree with the point being made.

It seems that the graph was compiled by someone with enough time on their hands to do a substantial review of the literature, but either no idea of what was appropriate to include, or an agenda to quote the lowest figures they could find, regardless of relevance.

I think I'll skip the rest of the references.

- Chris.

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Prophesy to the wind, to the wind only for only the wind will listen - TS Eliot

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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748

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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
Are you comparing with what Myrrh's C3 site says the IPCC says? Do you think they're reliable?

Whoever made (up) that graph Myrrh linked to has no idea how to distinguish 'maximum residency' from 'mean residency'. And that's just looking at the Suess and Lal 1983 paper.

--------------------
Forward the New Republic

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sanityman
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# 11598

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re: the IPCC's "lifetime of CO2" figure - the AR4 technical summary says this
quote:
Long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs), for example, CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), are chemically stable and persist in the atmosphere over time scales of a decade to centuries or longer, so that their emission has a long-term influence on climate. Because these gases are long lived, they become well mixed throughout the atmosphere much faster than they are removed and their global concentrations can be accurately estimated from data at a few locations. Carbon dioxide does not have a specific lifetime because it is continuously cycled between the atmosphere, oceans and land biosphere and its net removal from the atmosphere involves a range of processes with different time scales.
(my emphasis) Which is a lot like what Alan said, and nothing at all like "It's 100 years and everyone else says 10 years." To say nothing of the question: if the carbon sinks are so efficient at removing CO2 from the atmosphere, why is the CO2 level still rising?

- Chris.

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Prophesy to the wind, to the wind only for only the wind will listen - TS Eliot

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by sanityman:
Hiro, thanks for those links. One quote from the Buyer's Guide to Green Electricity:
quote:
Neither DEFRA nor the Carbon Trust consider green tariffs as ‘zero carbon’ at present and advise organisations to calculate emissions from renewable tariffs using the average electricity emissions factor for the UK.
I think that answers my question, unfortunately. It also gave a figure for the UK average fuel mix as:
  • Coal: 29.36
  • Natural Gas: 38.3
  • Nuclear 11.29
  • Renewable 19.27
  • Other 1.77
So a bit less coal-heavy than I assumed, and more renewables.

That's more renewables, and less nuclear, that I'd have guessed at as well. I wonder what the other 1.77% is?

So, it seems the only way for a renewables tariff to actually make any difference is if a) the existing requirements for renewables are more vigorously pursued and b) if a renewables tariff doesn't count towards that renewable requirement (ie: the renewables requirement applies to all tariffs except any specific renewables only tariffs). At the moment, ISTM, the power companies are struggling to meet the existing renewables requirements ... I wonder if they'll be amenable to a change in regulations such that the targets aren't increased further, but that the power they supply via renewables only tariffs doesn't count in the calculation?

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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QLib

Bad Example
# 43

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I wonder what the other 1.77% is?

Burning household waste? And perhaps generation from a pumped storage scheme would not strictly count as 'renewable'?

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Tradition is the handing down of the flame, not the worship of the ashes Gustav Mahler.

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sanityman
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# 11598

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quote:
Originally posted by QLib:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I wonder what the other 1.77% is?

Burning household waste? And perhaps generation from a pumped storage scheme would not strictly count as 'renewable'?
Unfortunately, it also doesn't count as generation [Big Grin] - it's more of a big rechargeable battery. Waste would fit the bill though - I wonder how much of it we do? Don't know if geothermal counts as renewable, but this isn't Iceland so doubt it figures.

Embarassing admission: I've just checked the fuel mix figures I quoted in the cold light of day, and found that I had been misled by the phrase "UK average." It was actually the average fuel mix of the companies covered in this report - the report being on green energy tariffs. It's not 100% renewable because some of them "green up" by retiring ROCs. My bad, sorry for the misinformation [Hot and Hormonal] . Does explain the high % of renewables, though!

As penance, I've just found the Office for National Statistics figures for 2001, which are
  • Nuclear 23%
  • Coal and lignite 34%
  • Petroleum products 2%
  • Natural and derived gases 37%
  • Hydro and wind 2%
  • Biomass and geothermal 1%
  • Other fuels 0%
  • Rounding errors or not being able to add up 1%
I can believe it's changed since 2001, though.

- Chris.

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Prophesy to the wind, to the wind only for only the wind will listen - TS Eliot

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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The Association of Electricity Producers give these figures for 2004.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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sanityman
Shipmate
# 11598

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Thanks, Alan. Those seem a lot more reasonable, and compatible with the ONS figures. I was hoping the renewables had grown more, but I suppose 4.5% is better than 3%. At that rate of increase, we'll be 100% renewable in 2272 [Big Grin] .

- Chris.

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Prophesy to the wind, to the wind only for only the wind will listen - TS Eliot

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Saul the Apostle
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Clint Boggis said:

quote:
One comment I'd make is that as the IPCC doesn't do research but summarises research from a number of reputable sources, it makes me wonder why those sources have been omitted. If they'd been included I expect it would have shown a number of values scattered around the IPCC 'summary value'.
The IPCC is a UN 'thinkspeak' organisations with its selected apparatchiks, some of these folk promote unproven science IMO. Like the discredited hockey stick curve idea.

This is the Orwellian nightmare coming true.... IMO.

Saul the unbeliever [Biased]


''IPCC’s claim is there is little doubt that human CO2 has caused the warming of the last approximately 60 years. They point to the increase of CO2 from 6.5 GtC (gigatons of carbon) human sources in their 2001 Report to 7.5 GtC in the 2007 report. The difficulty is the IPCC are the source of these numbers. In a segment titled, “Source of National Inventories” they write, “Utilizing IPCC procedures, nominated experts from around the world draft the reports that are then extensively reviewed twice before approval by the IPCC.”

So they define the rules determine who the “nominated experts “ are and have the final say in the numbers used. This is in keeping with their process of control and determination to prove their dictated goal of finding a human source of global warming. But how reliable is the data of the nominated experts. We already have cases of countries doctoring their numbers in order to gain greater benefits from the carbon credit fiasco.''

The article concludes...

''The IPCC mandate is to examine human causes of climate change. However, you cannot determine the human effect if you do not know the cause and extent of natural climate change. You cannot determine the effect if you leave out major components of the climate system and make assumptions that contradict natural evidence. As a result they have publicly determined with a 90% certainty that human CO2 is the cause of temperature change. Now events have caught up with them - their sins have found them out. My Grandmother wouldn’t be surprised nor should the public once they understand what is going on behind the so—called science. ''


NOTE: Link to full article (written back in 2007) from a Canadian site.

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/4511

[ 30. December 2009, 12:56: Message edited by: Saul the Apostle ]

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"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."

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Inger
Shipmate
# 15285

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Saul,

For a rather more realistic picture of what goes on in the IPCC, you should read this article in the New Scientist:

Climate change: What the IPCC didn't tell us

Far from being anxious to promote the case for AGW, the IPCC has consistently downplayed and even excluded from its reports the most serious and alarming predictions from climate scientists. Below a few extracts:

quote:


This is the untold story of the report, uncovered in interviews with many of the scientists involved, the story of how a complex mixture of scientific rigour and political expediency resulted in many of the scientists' more scary scenarios for climate change - those they constantly discuss among themselves - being left on the cutting room floor.

..the IPCC's review process was so rigorous that research deemed controversial, not fully quantified or not yet incorporated into climate models was excluded.

Dozens of climate scientists, including many of the leading lights of the IPCC study, came together two years ago this month to discuss "dangerous" climate change at a conference organised by the UK government in Exeter. They identified a series of potential positive feedbacks and "tipping points" not included in current models of the Earth's climate system that could accelerate global warming or sea-level rise. These included the physical collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, rapid melting in Antarctica, a shut-down of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic, and the release of carbon dioxide and methane from soil, the ocean bed and melting permafrost.

Yet last week's summary report virtually ignored most of the Exeter findings.

--
The IPCC team also sidelined findings from the British Antarctic Survey. BAS researchers say that the Antarctic Peninsula is warming faster than almost anywhere on the planet.

I think this article is open to public viewing.
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Clint Boggis
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# 633

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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
Clint Boggis said:

quote:
One comment I'd make is that as the IPCC doesn't do research but summarises research from a number of reputable sources, it makes me wonder why those sources have been omitted. If they'd been included I expect it would have shown a number of values scattered around the IPCC 'summary value'.
The IPCC is a UN 'thinkspeak' organisations with its selected apparatchiks, some of these folk promote unproven science IMO. Like the discredited hockey stick curve idea.
What the hell's "thinkspeak"? And what difference does mentioning the UN make to whether AGW is true? Or are you giving up any pretence and admitting that you're primarily influenced (distracted) by a personal dislike of the UN rather than the important matter of whether AGW holds up unuder scientific scrutiny?

And putting 'IMO' after something stupid and ill-informed doesn't make one appear open-minded.

How many times do you, Myrrh and others need reminding about the 'Hockey stick'? It was originally a flawed analysis which was rightly criticised and pro-AGW scientists accepted the errors. It was then revisited, the problems addressed and published with corrections. If you bring this up again (as a lazy reference assuming it to be a killer argument) it will just show that you haven't been paying attention.

If you are genuinely interested in finding out the truth, just search this thread for the previous reminders the the Hockey stick is not an outstanding issue. Pushing dead issues makes you look like you can't be bothered to marshal a proper argument.

I'm glad you're not a science teacher but I think we'd all worked it out.

I didn't bother to read the rest of your post.

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sanityman
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On preview, this looks a bit like a pile-on - sorry, I started writing a bit ago, and may have thought better of it if I'd seen you'd already garnered two replies. I do hope you read Inger's article for a look at the real shortcomings of the IPCC report. Anyway, I've written it now, so here it is.
quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
Clint Boggis said:

quote:
One comment I'd make is that as the IPCC doesn't do research but summarises research from a number of reputable sources, it makes me wonder why those sources have been omitted. If they'd been included I expect it would have shown a number of values scattered around the IPCC 'summary value'.
The IPCC is a UN 'thinkspeak' organisations with its selected apparatchiks, some of these folk promote unproven science IMO.
As we're casting aspersions on bodies here, lets have a look at the author of your article. That's Dr Tim Ball, the retired professor of Geography who now heads up the Natural Resources Stewardship Project. Yes, the "proactive grassroots campaign to counter the Kyoto Protocol and other greenhouse gas reduction schemes," which is set up and run by energy lobbyists, who use a legal loophole to avoid disclosing their sources of funding.

Given that he's the head of an astroturfing, disingenuous PR organisation with a stated aim to fight any and all global warming legislation, I'm not sure that I'm willing to trust him weighing in about the IPCC's science. In fact, I'm sure that I'm not. If I want an opinion on the science, I'll ask a scientist (non-retired, relevant area of expertise, not in the pay of an industry lobbying group), not a PR shill. Finding a political lobbyist accusing a group of scientists of having a political agenda is like the pot calling the fridge black, never mind the kettle.

I was going to look at the actual claims in the article in more detail, but I stopped reading when I found that the author thought the "cooling" since 2000 was in some way significant. If he makes errors like that (you can argue about whether it's deliberate misrepresentation or not) then I can't trust anything else he might say. He also states the the IPCC have a "dictated goal of finding a human source of global warming," without a shred of evidence to back up that paranoid statement.

The article is propaganda with a thin coating of science-speak, put out by an industry lobbying group who oppose climate change legislation. If you can find someone without such a huge vested interest to criticise the workings of the IPCC I'd be interested. In the meantime, I'm very curious as to why you or anyone else would give Dr Ball the time of day on this subject.

- Chris.

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pjkirk
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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
What the hell's "thinkspeak"? And what difference does mentioning the UN make to whether AGW is true?

Dontcha know? The UN is a freemason front-group for world domination headed by Comte de Saint Germain using AGW to ready the world for when they seize all the thrones of the world using the power of the Holy Grail. It's what I heard anyways, and explains why the UN can't be trusted.

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Saul the Apostle
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quote:
Originally posted by pjkirk:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
What the hell's "thinkspeak"? And what difference does mentioning the UN make to whether AGW is true?

Dontcha know? The UN is a freemason front-group for world domination headed by Comte de Saint Germain using AGW to ready the world for when they seize all the thrones of the world using the power of the Holy Grail. It's what I heard anyways, and explains why the UN can't be trusted.
Theres nothing like a bit of ridicule is there to diminish people who won't agree with you or express opinions you can't stomach, eh?

Simply when said ''IMO'', it is 'in my opinion', its a personal view, not a scientific one; of course you and your ilk can criticise all you like, not everyone agrees with you, so don't stoop to personal abuse. There is a lot we all don't know; just don't state that its proven, like a lot of these areas they are highly disputed.

The article was from a chap called Dr. Tim Ball, a renowned environmental consultant and former climatology Professor at the University of Winnipeg. He has a background in climatology and other fields snd is an advisor to the International Climate Science Coalition, Friends of Science and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

I suppose he doesn't count, for some obscure reason or other? Maybe he's left handed?

I don't hold to the bizarre conspiracy theories held by some, but any organisation, UN, or whatever, can become a vehicle for untruth if it only refers to a limited coterie of advisors, like the IPCC appears to do?

'Thinkspeak' is part of the Orwellian nightmare system that the IPCC seems to have become or is becoming, a political roadshow that seems intent on scaring people shitless, by disputed and unproven scientific opinion, see clip below for a perspective on this...but I suppose HE doesn't count either 'cos he's only a Princeton Professor of Physics or whatever, whatever and so on ad nauseam?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg-frkJBxm4


Saul

PS those who wish may want to look at Tim Ball's recent article: ''Time to Revisit Falsified Science of CO2'', the link is
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/18343

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Saul the Apostle
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Sorry, I waqs going to post this on my las thread, its a You Tube clip of Prof. Tim Bell talking about Climategate.

Here is it if anyone wants to see it. It's part of a short 2 video clip....


http://www.youtube.com/taxpayerdotcom#p/a/u/2/Vlnm3IvisPU

Saul [Biased]

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Luigi
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Saul - if you put forward, let's be generous, 20 scientists to validate your point of view, and I put up say 980 against them why should we pay more attention to your 20 than all the others? You try to remind us of 'your' scientists credentials even though the vast majority of them would find your Yeccie beliefs laughable. (Of course none of the scientists you obviously dismiss, have impressive credentials, do they?)

I'm close to giving up with your debating style. You never seem to engage with any of the details, the issues, the science. You just write year 9 type disparaging comments that mostly attack various people rather than the ideas - see your frequent comments on Al Gore etc. (By the way assertions are not arguments.) You then endlessly recycle these comments as if none of us understood them in the first place.

Do you find this type of arguement convincing when it comes from your students?

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quote:
Originally posted by Luigi:
(By the way assertions are not arguments.)

Yes they are! [Big Grin]

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Clint Boggis
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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
quote:
Originally posted by pjkirk:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
What the hell's "thinkspeak"? And what difference does mentioning the UN make to whether AGW is true?

Dontcha know? The UN is a freemason front-group for world domination headed by Comte de Saint Germain using AGW to ready the world for when they seize all the thrones of the world using the power of the Holy Grail. It's what I heard anyways, and explains why the UN can't be trusted.
Theres nothing like a bit of ridicule is there to diminish people who won't agree with you or express opinions you can't stomach, eh?

Simply when said ''IMO'', it is 'in my opinion', its a personal view, not a scientific one; of course you and your ilk can criticise all you like, not everyone agrees with you, so don't stoop to personal abuse. There is a lot we all don't know; just don't state that its proven, like a lot of these areas they are highly disputed.

No abuse to you intended Saul. Apologies if that's how it appeared.

Re: Dr Tim Ball: To mis-quote what Michael Hesletine said in another context: "what he says is not an honest unbiased attempt to get at the truth about AGW - It's Ball's!"

See what sanityman said about Ball's background - he's a retired Geography professor, not a working climate scientist. When what he says is in direct opposition to what those at the top of their field, who actually made a life's work of studying the climate say, it's enough to make me doubt him. He wants to appear to present an honest case but actually he's an unqualified advocate funded by the energy lobby. Don't be taken it Saul!

Using 'IMO' was understood but it doesn't mean much when 'a man in the street' (you or me) believes their own opinion is just as valid as someone who actually knows about a subject. Does a school cleaner have an opinion on a complex issue in education policy? Possibly. Does it carry the same weight as that of someone with a great deal of expertise? Of course not. (IMO!)

Mockery can certainly help (it's entertaining and fun) but the real point is not who can get a laugh but who's telling the truth?

Scaring people shitless is not the point either. We need to decide whether AGW is true and if it is, to agree some action. If the fear results in some action from humanity, maybe it's worhtwhile.
.

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Barnabas62
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And here's the video, to prove it!

[xpost with Clint [Hot and Hormonal] ]

[ 30. December 2009, 16:36: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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pjkirk
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quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
Theres nothing like a bit of ridicule is there to diminish people who won't agree with you or express opinions you can't stomach, eh?

Simply when said ''IMO'', it is 'in my opinion', its a personal view, not a scientific one; of course you and your ilk can criticise all you like, not everyone agrees with you, so don't stoop to personal abuse. There is a lot we all don't know; just don't state that its proven, like a lot of these areas they are highly disputed.

As has been stated before, I think you overrate the dispute greatly, underrate the proof greatly, and hide behind "imo", [Big Grin] , [Yipee] , rumblings of conspiracy, etc.

It's very hard to get you to engage on an argument.

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aggg
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I've been thinking about this notion that science is 'scaring people shitless'.

Presumably the implication is that if AGW is not actually true then the predictions will not happen.

Let us, for a second, assume it is not true. We have a few possible alternatives:

1) The elevated CO2 in the atmosphere is not caused by human activity but by some other method we're not sure of.

2) The CO2 level has no impact on the global temperature.

If 1) is true, there is no problem with being scared shitless because we're going to see the effects of a warmed climate whether or not it was caused by humans. And it strikes me that any trigger that causes us to be more efficient and less dependent on things we dig out of the ground and burn has got to be a good thing - right?

If 2) is true then we still get the benefits from behaving as if AGW is true (ie more efficiency and less reliance on fossil fuels) but have the downside of having spent money on making the changes. Which must, at this point, be next to nothing (compared to bank bailouts, etc etc etc).

So even if you (for what I would think were very irrational reasons) chose not to believe in AGW - you'd be better off shutting-the-fuck-up about it and spending your mental energy on something else because the only effects would be positive.

It is a completely stupid response IMO to try to stop people doing the right thing from wrong motives.

Indeed, you'd be far better off worrying about the poorest and most vulnerable people - who if there is no climate change remain in a shockingly disastrous position but if the predictions are correct face utter devastation. Otherwise it just sounds like you're complaining because it might mean there is an impact on the cost of filling your pickup with gas.

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sanityman
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aggg, your post made me think of this cartoon. I'm surprised we haven't heard more about energy security and efficiency saving in the public debate. Perhaps that shows who's dictating the agenda?

- Chris.

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Barnabas62
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I was chatting to my younger son over Christmas. His uni quals are on a par with Alan Cresswell's, he is sky-high bright and he's both an an eco-believer and practiser. Was pretty incandescent about Copenhagen and what he sees as the irrationality of the sceptic position. I told him a bit about the arguments on board here and he roared! Particularly enjoyed "heat rises CO2 falls".

We spent a bit of time discussing aggg's line as well - he's not too keen on that, he gives a high value to proceeding on accurate analysis. But he did say one thing which made me think about conspiracy theories (which he has zero time for). "Cherchez l'argent", he said. "Which big players in the world have most to gain from delayed implementation of a greener global agenda? Pretty obvious really. Who's profits might shrink by up to a trillion dollars a year short term? Lots of global outfits need much more time to reposition themselves, get the best out of their asset investment. Even if that means some measure of planet-damaging. It pays them and their shareholders to be sceptical for as long as possible. Like tobacco companies in the 70's and 80's - only much more so".

[ 30. December 2009, 21:33: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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aggg
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which line of mine in particular?

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Barnabas62
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Sorry, the second of your two options. If indeed it were true that CO2 levels have minimal impact on GW, the balance between the cost of change and the benefit of change would be very different. The cost of change is far from trivial. And on general grounds, it is not a good idea to make public policy on the basis of "let's pretend".

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Saul the Apostle
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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
quote:
Originally posted by Saul the Apostle:
quote:
Originally posted by pjkirk:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
What the hell's "thinkspeak"? And what difference does mentioning the UN make to whether AGW is true?

Dontcha know? The UN is a freemason front-group for world domination headed by Comte de Saint Germain using AGW to ready the world for when they seize all the thrones of the world using the power of the Holy Grail. It's what I heard anyways, and explains why the UN can't be trusted.
Theres nothing like a bit of ridicule is there to diminish people who won't agree with you or express opinions you can't stomach, eh?

Simply when said ''IMO'', it is 'in my opinion', its a personal view, not a scientific one; of course you and your ilk can criticise all you like, not everyone agrees with you, so don't stoop to personal abuse. There is a lot we all don't know; just don't state that its proven, like a lot of these areas they are highly disputed.

No abuse to you intended Saul. Apologies if that's how it appeared.

Re: Dr Tim Ball: To mis-quote what Michael Hesletine said in another context: "what he says is not an honest unbiased attempt to get at the truth about AGW - It's Ball's!"

See what sanityman said about Ball's background - he's a retired Geography professor, not a working climate scientist. When what he says is in direct opposition to what those at the top of their field, who actually made a life's work of studying the climate say, it's enough to make me doubt him. He wants to appear to present an honest case but actually he's an unqualified advocate funded by the energy lobby. Don't be taken it Saul!

Using 'IMO' was understood but it doesn't mean much when 'a man in the street' (you or me) believes their own opinion is just as valid as someone who actually knows about a subject. Does a school cleaner have an opinion on a complex issue in education policy? Possibly. Does it carry the same weight as that of someone with a great deal of expertise? Of course not. (IMO!)

Mockery can certainly help (it's entertaining and fun) but the real point is not who can get a laugh but who's telling the truth?

Scaring people shitless is not the point either. We need to decide whether AGW is true and if it is, to agree some action. If the fear results in some action from humanity, maybe it's worhtwhile.
.

Clint Boggis,

fair point mate. I accept all you've said. Agreed.

Personally, I confess (Father forgive me I have sinned [Biased] ) not as an excuse but more of an explanation, my own church background/ upbringing, was Plymouth Brethren and we were a seriously bloody minded lot! Add to that my own personal bloody mindedness. Mind you the PBs produced some fine people too (recently remembering that fine theologian FF Bruce, plus many many others too in all sorts of fields).

Barnabas - sorry bit off topic here!


Anyway, as stated, I take on your board your comments and I am sure the debate will go on...and on...and on.... [Smile] I am sure of that both on S of F and the wider world.

Happy New year to all,

Saul the Apostle....with feet of clay!

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Barnabas62
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Happy New Year, Saul. No need for an apology, personal asides are fine. But thanks anyway. [On a part of the tangent, I agree with you about F F Bruce.]

I found this quote from Isaac David on another Purg thread which I wouldn't want the regulars on this thread to miss.
quote:
Climate Change, on the other hand, is, in the end, about the science. The difficulty in that debate comes from scientific illiteracy. There, that's my two sentence summary of 20 pages of debate! [Big Grin]
I might add "vested interest", so far as the politics goes (this thread is about both the science and the politics), but he's bang on the money about scientific illiteracy. To quote Elizabeth Bennet (Pride and Prejudice) "As we have daily proof".

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aggg
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Sorry, the second of your two options. If indeed it were true that CO2 levels have minimal impact on GW, the balance between the cost of change and the benefit of change would be very different. The cost of change is far from trivial. And on general grounds, it is not a good idea to make public policy on the basis of "let's pretend".

In the scheme of things, I believe it is trivial.

I'd be interested to see figures to show that taking action was more expensive than doing nothing (or fighting a war, flying to Mars etc).

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Luigi
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Barnabus - I agree with your son in that I think if we tackle climate change, even the 2% CO2 target, it takes us all into new territory. Economically the underlying belief has always been that as long as we can grow, we can get out of this mess (whatever it is). Now that China and India are showing us what happens when the less developed parts of the world start growing the myth of this all is obvious. I believe it is obvious just how finite the resources of this planet are.

I guess this puts me in the alarmist camp (if I remember the four categories from earlier in the thread) - though personally I think it puts me in the pessimists camp. I can't see how we can carry on running so much of our economy off waste and still tackle the problem. But for many the dictum - I consume therefore I am - is the only one they know.

Yes I personally believe that we could have a richer and more fulfilled lives even if governments and inidividuals do what is necessary, but it scares too many people.

An example, increasingly I come across people for whom flying 3x this year, 4x next year and so on is not just desirable but in their opinion necessary. The only way that they can get through their life is to have these perks where they spend winter where it isn't too cold and summer where it isn't too hot. The fact that most of them endlessly complain about normal life, everyday weather, suggests in my not at all scientific survey, that something they believe makes them happier actually makes them feel more miserable most of the time. (How many climate deniers are grumpy old men?)

So whilst I actually believe that the cost is very small (in terms of true fulfillment), I think that those who buy into materialisms near ubiquitous myth of 'I can never be content / happy with what I have', we are talking blasphemy.

Also I think it is easy to underestimate ideology. The power of libertarianism as an ideology is every bit as powerful as the money of the energy lobby. BTW totally agree with comments about vested interests.

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Barnabas62
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I gave that point some thought myself. Costs of change relate to both necessity and urgency. I can redecorate the whole of our house over a period of time, but if I try to do it all in one month I'll exhaust myself and bust the family budget. Besides, I can live with the scruffiness, can't I? A crude analogy of course, just to picture the point.

I think the short to medium term economic arguments, risk analyses and "DCF-type" effects have probably been looked at by somebody, so I'll have a poke around to see what I can find online to illustrate the point. In my present relatively ignorant state on this point, I'm pretty sure on general grounds that the short to medium term global economic effects are not trivial, regardless of the long term benefits (on which I suspect you and I both agree). But I could be wrong about that.

[xpost with Luigi]

[ 31. December 2009, 09:41: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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