|
Source: (consider it)
|
Thread: Purgatory: And they're off - UK election rant
|
FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
...
Say the House of Commons looks like:
Con 310
Lab 230
L.D 75
Oth 35 (o/w DUP 10)
So only real option is Conservative minority government with some sort of DUP support.
...
Let's see how this fares!
Posts: 3588 | Registered: Oct 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ender's Shadow
Shipmate
# 2272
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
...
Say the House of Commons looks like:
Con 310
Lab 230
L.D 75
Oth 35 (o/w DUP 10)
So only real option is Conservative minority government with some sort of DUP support.
...
Let's see how this fares!
Well - the Conservatives in Canada have survived remarkably well as a minority government with a similar sort of distribution of seats, so there's reason to think that that may be the pattern for us too if that arises.
Back from voting and a restaurant meal. Went early to vote - but the queue was so long that I had to bail and go back after the meal. Apparently there had been a queue from 530 till 930 - when I was in it, it seems to be mostly young (20-35) adults, so it does seem that this campaign has caught fire for that age group for the first time; one can only assume that is the impact of the TV debate. My guess is that will swing it towards the Lib Dems...
--------------------
Test everything. Hold on to the good.
Please don't refer to me as 'Ender' - the whole point of Ender's Shadow is that he isn't Ender.
Posts: 5018 | From: Manchester, England | Registered: Feb 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
|
Posted
Excerpted Call from the Palace:
HM The Queen calling the Governor General of Canada.
Brenda: Hello Rideau Hall? Buck House here.
GG: 'Zup Your Majesty?
Brenda: Could you please second an advisor or three ASAP? The Westminster Parliament just hung itself like yours has.
GG: I recommend a stiff drink.
--------------------
NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Hairy Biker
Shipmate
# 12086
|
Posted
quote:
First past the post is on it's last legs
Peter Mandleson on the BBC just now. There's a turn-up for the books!
Given that the Tories have come out against electoral reform, are we going to see a Lib-Lab pact based on achieving the reform the 3rd party have been pushing for since I've been a voter
--------------------
there [are] four important things in life: religion, love, art and science. At their best, they’re all just tools to help you find a path through the darkness. None of them really work that well, but they help.
Damien Hirst
Posts: 683 | From: This Sceptred Isle | Registered: Nov 2006
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sleepwalker
Shipmate
# 15343
|
Posted
My polling station was as deathly quiet as it is every time I darken its doorstep but it's good to hear that elsewhere there has been a healthy turnout. The silence here probably has something to do with the fact that if Labour fielded a monkey most people would vote for it so I'm probably wasting my time voting Tory. Still, it's what I voted and I didn't have a single doubt about doing so.
I hope there isn't a hung parliament. I have no desire for the likes of the SNP holding the balance of power in the UK. I want Labour back in like I want an attack of vomiting but I would rather endure that than a hung parliament.
Posts: 267 | From: somewhere other than here | Registered: Dec 2009
| IP: Logged
|
|
Pottage
Shipmate
# 9529
|
Posted
I don't suggest those figures are the last word on the point obviously, just that statistics based upon the circumstances of many millions of people might be a better basis for discussion than the personal circumstances of one or two individual shipmates. In particular, the assumption that - on average - public sector pensions are more generous than private sector ones IS a valid and accurate assumption, even if there are individuals of whom that might not be true.
It's true of course that the private sector includes many people who have low paid jobs, but it also includes all the fat cats in the City, most of the country's lawyers, accountants and other traditionally well-paid professionals. And it's certainly not true to say that the public sector has entirely stripped itself of people with low skilled and low-earning jobs.
These statistics are from ONS not some dodgy political hack. Surely the fact that they seem counter intuitive is grounds for considering their implications rather than using a few personal anecdotes and gut-instinct assumptions to dismiss them?
Posts: 701 | From: middle England | Registered: May 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
I don't suggest those figures are the last word on the point obviously, just that statistics based upon the circumstances of many millions of people might be a better basis for discussion than the personal circumstances of one or two individual shipmates. In particular, the assumption that - on average - public sector pensions are more generous than private sector ones IS a valid and accurate assumption, even if there are individuals of whom that might not be true.
It's true of course that the private sector includes many people who have low paid jobs, but it also includes all the fat cats in the City, most of the country's lawyers, accountants and other traditionally well-paid professionals. And it's certainly not true to say that the public sector has entirely stripped itself of people with low skilled and low-earning jobs.
These statistics are from ONS not some dodgy political hack. Surely the fact that they seem counter intuitive is grounds for considering their implications rather than using a few personal anecdotes and gut-instinct assumptions to dismiss them?
Reasonable point. Except that a simple mean doesn't really tell you anything. You need much more detailed figures.
Remember, the vast majority of people have an above average number of legs...
AFZ
[ 06. May 2010, 22:44: Message edited by: alienfromzog ]
--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
| IP: Logged
|
|
Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
|
Posted
What are the odds on there being legal challenges to results based on voters being turned away? Are we looking at the UK equivalent of the 2000 US general election? (Never mind about who has the most MPs, who has the most lawyers?)
--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612
|
Posted
Depends on how marginal the constituency and the Commons is at the end.
There was an appeal in Winchester a few elections back. The party that appealed lost even more in the by-election - it can look like sour grapes.
There may be legal challenges, but for them to get anywhere they would have to convince the Commons and the public that there was the 'wrong result' as opposed to a 'mistake' from which lessons must be learned.
Suppose 200 people were turned away due to a returning officer error and the majority was 20 then there is a reasonable probability of a successful appeal and by-election. The other way round - doesn't matter.
Posts: 3588 | Registered: Oct 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
What are the odds on there being legal challenges to results based on voters being turned away? Are we looking at the UK equivalent of the 2000 US general election? (Never mind about who has the most MPs, who has the most lawyers?)
It's a bloody shambles. The Electoral Commission has already issued an apology and has said it will undertake a review but otherwise it is hiding behind the rules - but the action taken by returning officers that administer the rules appears to vary!
It's even worse in City of Chester, where I have heard that a polling station ran out of ballot papers.
I don't think it matters a damn how few voters were deprived of a chance to vote: if you show up on time, you should get a vote.
--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
iGeek
Number of the Feast
# 777
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
And "how can you be a Christian and vote Tory" comments.
Wow. It's like 'mericuhn politics in negative.
"how can you be a Christian and vote Democrat"
Posts: 2150 | From: West End, Gulfopolis | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
|
Posted
Chester's marginal, isn't it? Could make a big difference there...
--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Chester's marginal, isn't it? Could make a big difference there...
If people aren't able to vote, every seat is a marginal.
--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
|
Posted
True. But the challenges are more likely to result from marginals.
Meanwhile, I'm taking Leo's advice and nursing a single malt in front of the telly. ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I don't think it matters a damn how few voters were deprived of a chance to vote: if you show up on time, you should get a vote.
Of course it matters. The hand counting is rarely accurate to the nearest vote, and could be out by as much as 50 votes. If the majority is 10,000+ it doesn't really matter. Even with second recounts in close seats the numbers can move by 5 or 10 votes.
Posts: 3588 | Registered: Oct 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
|
Posted
It looks like the Greens have taken Brighton Pavilion...
--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I don't think it matters a damn how few voters were deprived of a chance to vote: if you show up on time, you should get a vote.
Of course it matters. The hand counting is rarely accurate to the nearest vote, and could be out by as much as 50 votes. If the majority is 10,000+ it doesn't really matter. Even with second recounts in close seats the numbers can move by 5 or 10 votes.
OK then, it might not matter as far as determining the result is concerned but it may well discourage people from voting in the future. All the politicians agree that every vote counts and they want to encourage voting, so it is vital that everyone who wants to cast a vote gets a chance to do so.
--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
birdie
fowl
# 2173
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
There was an appeal in Winchester a few elections back. The party that appealed lost even more in the by-election - it can look like sour grapes.
<snip>
Suppose 200 people were turned away due to a returning officer error and the majority was 20 then there is a reasonable probability of a successful appeal and by-election. The other way round - doesn't matter.
That's pretty much how it happened in Winchester, as I recall. I was a student there at the time. They recounted and recounted, and finally declared, late the following day I think, a Lib Dem victory with a majority of 2.
The Tories (it had previously been considered a safe Tory seat) immediately went round producing little old ladies who would have voted Tory if only they could have got out to vote. So the Tories appealed and then lost spectacularly at the by-election. Lib Dem majority of 21500. It was wonderful.
--------------------
"Gentlemen, I wash my hands of this weirdness."
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 1290 | From: the edge | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612
|
Posted
It looks absolutely third world banana republic. It is unacceptable, and heads must roll at the relevant councils and Electoral Commission.
It would appear that many of the councils who broke the rules and had inadequate resources were run by Labour or the Lib Dems. The central rules and commission were set up by the Labour Government. It is quite likely that a number of the excess votes lost would have been drummed up by Labour canvassers. So at least it is cock-up not conspiracy in terms of political bias.
Posts: 3588 | Registered: Oct 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
|
Posted
It's getting worse. From the BBC election feed:
0043 BBC reporter Danny Carpenter in York says hundreds of postal ballots have gone missing in the city. The problems are being blamed on a printing error and a temporary closure at the local postal sorting office. In York Outer, the Lib Dems had a notional majority of just 203, meaning the missing votes could have a significant impact and pave the way for a losing party to challenge tonight's result in the courts.
What a five-star, ocean-going fuck-up. It reminds me of the "hanging chads" of G W Bush, 2001.
--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
[qb]
When Nick Clegg says that 'it's time for a change', the response is 'well, he would say that, wouldn't he'. To my mind, however, it happens to be true.
But is the change good? for instance they intend to introduce road pricing . This is hugely expensive way to collect tax and control cars (why not increase the price of petrol instead?). It will cause 'Rat runs' down minor roads. Every car in the coutnry will need to be tracked. What does this say about civil liberties?[/qb
I would have thought that economic meltdown and Matrix-like government databases were perhaps more important. But it's good to know that you have your own priorities.
quote:
Not only do they have a mad Transport policy they have a lunatic economic policy.
Yes Nick clegg and Vince Cable are nice people and very bright it's just that the Liberal Democrat party policy will take the country into a left turn onto the road to ruin.
Not a very good point, given the state that the British economy is in. It's actually quite easy to run an economy without letting the banks run away with it. Ask the NZ government.
On reflection, I find this election campaign to have been profoundly depressing. What one might expect to be the most important issues - the economy and Europe - have hardly been debated. All we have learned is that politicians should look straight into the camera if they want to increase their vote.
--------------------
"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
The other thing is 'change to what?'. Lib Dem policy on a lot of things appears to change from week to week and region to region.
Sometimes joining the Euro is a good long-term goal, sometimes it isn't. Sometimes giving an amnesty to 600,000 illegal immigrants is a bold but sound idea, sometimes that figure is denied. Sometimes a coalition with Gordon Brown is out of the question, sometimes it is quite possible.
It would be a start if they could actually be pinned down on some of this stuff before then deciding whether they represent a change for the better.
You've just picked an example of a long-term LD policy. I imagine that, in the long run, Euro entry is still a good idea*, and I have no doubt that the Lib Dems have not made entry a manifesto commitment, because they know that the voters will not want it.
(speaking for myself, I favour it - during the global stockmarket crash, it was interesting to watch sterling slide - it is no longer a major world currency)
--------------------
"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
It's getting worse. From the BBC election feed:
0043 BBC reporter Danny Carpenter in York says hundreds of postal ballots have gone missing in the city. The problems are being blamed on a printing error and a temporary closure at the local postal sorting office. In York Outer, the Lib Dems had a notional majority of just 203, meaning the missing votes could have a significant impact and pave the way for a losing party to challenge tonight's result in the courts.
What a five-star, ocean-going fuck-up. It reminds me of the "hanging chads" of G W Bush, 2001.
Bloody debacle!
--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
|
Posted
So a by-election's pretty mandatory there.
--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
So a by-election's pretty mandatory there.
I think it would be better to wait and see the result and if there is an election petition first. A by-election as a result is still relatively unlikely.
The whole Parliament might have collapsed before there is any time for that!
Posts: 3588 | Registered: Oct 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
|
Posted
Conservatives have 'won' Chester on the face of it.
--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
The Scrumpmeister
Ship’s Taverner
# 5638
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
It's a bloody shambles. The Electoral Commission has already issued an apology and has said it will undertake a review but otherwise it is hiding behind the rules - but the action taken by returning officers that administer the rules appears to vary!
Their spokeswoman on the Beeb certainly appeared to be hiding behind the rules with the strict 10 o' clock closure policy. So it seems that results may be challenged both because people were not allowed to vote in some places and because they were allowed to vote in others, (where objections could be raised that extending the voting time meant that a) rules were broken and b) the voters were potentially exposed to the exit poll result broadcast).
quote:
It's even worse in City of Chester, where I have heard that a polling station ran out of ballot papers.
I think it's Liverpool (among others) that ran out of ballot papers. Chester is, IIRC, where people who had registered to vote were refused their right to do so because nobody had bothered to update the list used at the polling stations. The voters were just turned away.
quote:
I don't think it matters a damn how few voters were deprived of a chance to vote: if you show up on time, you should get a vote.
I agree. There is absolutely no excuse for what has happened.
--------------------
If Christ is not fully human, humankind is not fully saved. - St John of Saint-Denis
Posts: 14741 | From: Greater Manchester, UK | Registered: Mar 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Conservatives have 'won' Chester on the face of it.
There is no 'won' about it.
The Returning Officer declared the result with a majority of 2,583. The second place candidate and agent would have had an immediate opportunity to appeal or ask for a recount, and it would appear that they have not done so if we have a result before 3am.
I would be very surprised if there is a formal petition supported by that candidate which finds 2,584 missing votes. Until and unless that position changes it is an unqualified win.
Posts: 3588 | Registered: Oct 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
Beeswax Altar
Shipmate
# 11644
|
Posted
I have a question. I've seen different bits of information but nothing definite.
It is being reported over here that exit polls indicate the Conservatives will not have a majority. Now, as I understand it, the Queen technically appoints the PM. She has to appoint the person who gains the support of parliament. One source says that the incumbent PM gets the first opportunity to form a government. Another source says the Queen is most likely to ask the leader of the party with the most seats to form a government. In this case, they are two different people. So, which is right? Does the Queen really actually get to decide who has first crack at being PM?
Plus, if the exit polls are correct, Labor and Lib-Dems do not have enough combined seats to reach a majority. The Conservatives only need 20 or so votes. If they are to form a government, where would they get them? I'm not even sure if that's how it works.
--------------------
Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible.
-Og: King of Bashan
Posts: 8411 | From: By a large lake | Registered: Jul 2006
| IP: Logged
|
|
FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612
|
Posted
In the event of a hung parliament, the incumbent Prime Minister stays in office until he resigns or loses a vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
If he goes, then the Queen would invite the person most likely to be able to form a government that could have the vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
Normally that would be the Leader of the largest party, not yet invited, unless it would be clear that he could not. Exceptionally, it might be someone else.
The Queen should not be put in an awkward position of having to make a choice. So the Cabinet Secretary would negotiate with the Privy Councillors involved to try and resolve the issue before that situation arises.
Posts: 3588 | Registered: Oct 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
|
Posted
Strictly speaking, in a minority situation, the sitting Prime Minister can choose to remain Prime Minster. This is known as "Meeting the House". This mean that Gordon Brown expects to assemble a working majority by the time Parliament convenes.
A "Working Majority" can constitute one of two two things. First, it can be a formal coalition where two parties sit as the government, and the Cabinet consists of members from both parties. The Canadian province of British Columbia has had this in the past and the federal Parliament of Australia regularly features this with the the Liberal/National Coalition.
Alternatively Labour can rely on a second party for support during confidence votes, usually by agreeing to a stated legislative agenda, but without being a formal coalition with a coalition cabinet. This happened in Ontario in 1985. The Progressive Conservatives won a minority, met the Legislature, and were forced out by the combined votes of the Liberals and NDP. The Liberals/NDP had an agreement on a legislative agenda but no formal coalition. The Lieutenant Governor allowed the transition without a second election.
Thirdly, Gordon Brown can concede victory to David Cameron and leave all the problems of finding a working majority to him.
Constitutionally, it is Brown's choice as to whether he will resign the Ministry tonight or not. Under normal circumstances this is a no-brainer, but not this time.
If David Cameron is unhappy if Gordon Brown does not resign he can't declare himself Prime Minister (yet), his only recourse is to meet the House of Commons and bring down the Government at the first opportunity. The first Money Bill or Supply Day would provide this opportunity. Money Bills are confidence matter by definition, and Supply Days allow the Opposition to set the agenda and bring forth a Confidence Motion.
--------------------
NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
In the event of a hung parliament, the incumbent Prime Minister stays in office until he resigns or loses a vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
If he goes, then the Queen would invite the person most likely to be able to form a government that could have the vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
Normally that would be the Leader of the largest party, not yet invited, unless it would be clear that he could not. Exceptionally, it might be someone else.
The Queen should not be put in an awkward position of having to make a choice. So the Cabinet Secretary would negotiate with the Privy Councillors involved to try and resolve the issue before that situation arises.
The advice of who to invite is given by the outgoing Prime Minister. The Cabinet Secretary as a Civil Servant should not be involved in such a political decision. That would be a clear breach of Responsible Government.
You are right about the list of usual suspects, but the key question is not really who is to be invited, it is whether that person can form a Government that will survive a Vote of Confidence. Remember every money bill is a Confidence measure. The fate of the Government lies not in Buck House but on the floor of the Commons.
--------------------
NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Rosa Winkel
Saint Anger round my neck
# 11424
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
I know some good Labour people who I've fought on the streets with, people who work hard for their communities. I feel sorry for them.
I expected it, though. The Tories needed a minor swing.
Without sleep and with vodka, I forgot to mention that I was talking about Chester.
--------------------
The Disability and Jesus "Locked out for Lent" project
Posts: 3271 | From: Wrocław | Registered: May 2006
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
|
Posted
BBC talking to Jack Straw right now, apparently Gordon Brown "is the Prime Minister" and will be "talking to advisors" in the morning.
Looks like he's chosen to Meet the House.
--------------------
NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
In the event of a hung parliament, the incumbent Prime Minister stays in office until he resigns or loses a vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
If he goes, then the Queen would invite the person most likely to be able to form a government that could have the vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
Normally that would be the Leader of the largest party, not yet invited, unless it would be clear that he could not. Exceptionally, it might be someone else.
The Queen should not be put in an awkward position of having to make a choice. So the Cabinet Secretary would negotiate with the Privy Councillors involved to try and resolve the issue before that situation arises.
The advice of who to invite is given by the outgoing Prime Minister. The Cabinet Secretary as a Civil Servant should not be involved in such a political decision. That would be a clear breach of Responsible Government.
You are right about the list of usual suspects, but the key question is not really who is to be invited, it is whether that person can form a Government that will survive a Vote of Confidence. Remember every money bill is a Confidence measure. The fate of the Government lies not in Buck House but on the floor of the Commons.
This is the United Kingdom not Canada. The situation is not identical.
The key confidence vote will be on the Queen's Speech debate, which is on 25 May.
The Cabinet Secretary has perfectly properly offered to facilitate the process of negotiation.
Events will take their course over the weekend. Real politics may trump the constitutional niceties.
Posts: 3588 | Registered: Oct 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Duo Seraphim
Ubi caritas et amor
# 256
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
BBC talking to Jack Straw right now, apparently Gordon Brown "is the Prime Minister" and will be "talking to advisors" in the morning.
Looks like he's chosen to Meet the House.
I think that might be a little premature to call that. But it is looking like a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives falling 21 or so seats short of outright majority.
The Lib Dems will play a central role in the next few days and in the lead up to May 25. But they have also lost seats to the Conservatives - including to my surprise my old home of Harrogate and Knaresborough. That's been Lib Dem for some time - indeed IIRC it was lost (deservedly) for the Conservatives by Norman Lamont.
--------------------
Embrace the serious whack. It's the Catholic thing to do. IngoB
The Messiah, Peace be upon him, said to his Apostles: 'Verily, this world is merely a bridge, so cross over it, and do not make it your abode.' (Bihar al-anwar xiv, 319)
Posts: 7952 | From: Sydney Australia | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
|
|
Trisagion
Shipmate
# 5235
|
Posted
It was worth staying up just to see Paxo interview Evan Harris.
--------------------
ceterum autem censeo tabula delenda esse
Posts: 3923 | Registered: Nov 2003
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
|
Posted
I'm up after too little sleep. And I still have no idea what just happened. Or what's happening now.
At least Radio 4 seems to share my confusion. ![[Ultra confused]](graemlins/confused2.gif)
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ariel
Shipmate
# 58
|
Posted
As someone on Radio 4 said this morning, "The people have spoken. We’re just not sure what they've said."
What a night, what a morning - we've had a general election and nobody has won.
Posts: 25445 | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
|
Posted
Safe in the knowledge that my opinoin will make no difference what I think they should do is:
- Labour led lib-lab coalition with a time limited commitment - no longer than 24mths
- Carry out the spending review and pass a budget
- Implement voting reform
- On completeing these tasks, call an election on the basis of the new voting system
The second election will almost certainly lead to a Tory government. But having passed the budget through the house should allow for a consensus - however forced - so that we have the stability of economic planning needed for the financial markets.
Also, these solutions would ultimately favour the conservatives - all parties take responsibility for the cuts and then they get the benefit of the increase in the share of the vote.
--------------------
All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Malin
Shipmate
# 11769
|
Posted
It's not often you wake up and find you haven't missed the end of the election. So close in places.
--------------------
'Is it a true bird or is it something that exists within a-'
'It's a thing that is,' said Granny sharply. 'Don't go spilling allegory all down your shirt.' Terry Pratchett
Posts: 1901 | From: Norwich | Registered: Aug 2006
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
|
Posted
Labour, liberal and the nationalists do we think ? After all, Labour did deliver devolution ...
--------------------
All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ender's Shadow
Shipmate
# 2272
|
Posted
Humble pie consumption time - I am comforted by the fact that Ken and I are both eating from the same dish having both made the same wrong prediction ![[Hot and Hormonal]](icon_redface.gif)
--------------------
Test everything. Hold on to the good.
Please don't refer to me as 'Ender' - the whole point of Ender's Shadow is that he isn't Ender.
Posts: 5018 | From: Manchester, England | Registered: Feb 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Malin
Shipmate
# 11769
|
Posted
Of the remaining seats does anyone know which way they are expected to go? Are they marginals or mostly huge majorities?
--------------------
'Is it a true bird or is it something that exists within a-'
'It's a thing that is,' said Granny sharply. 'Don't go spilling allegory all down your shirt.' Terry Pratchett
Posts: 1901 | From: Norwich | Registered: Aug 2006
| IP: Logged
|
|
Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
As someone on Radio 4 said this morning, "The people have spoken. We’re just not sure what they've said."
That was David Milliband. A great quote.
--------------------
"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
|
Posted
Re forming a government, my understanding that Gordon Brown remains Prime Minister until relieved of office, and so he has first dibs at attempting to form a government.
--------------------
"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Printer-friendly view
