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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: And they're off - UK election rant
Spawn
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Humble pie consumption time - I am comforted by the fact that Ken and I are both eating from the same dish having both made the same wrong prediction [Hot and Hormonal]

I predicted wrongly that there would be a wafer-thin Conservative majority.

As for the message from the voters - there isn't one single message. We are a deeply divided society and that is what the election results indicate.

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Yerevan
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Cod, yes apparently.

Three possibilities IMO:

A) A 'rainbow coalition' of the Labour, the Lib Dems, various nationalists and Caroline Lucas (the Greens' have taken Brighton).

B) A Tory/Lib Dem coalition

C) Tory minority government propped up by the DUP.

The likelihood of A is increased by the fact that Labour gets first go at cobbling together a coalition. It would be horribly unwieldy though and would involve buying off lots of small interest groups. B is what we'll probably get. C would be horrible (from my leftish point of view anyway).

The BNP have got nowhere (no surprise). Caroline Lucas wasn't that much of a surprise either, though I don't think its as big a deal as the Greens will make out. Its an unusual constituency and they're still pretty marginal across the UK (admittedly I'm biased...the Greens are powerful on my local city council and haven't exactly been good for the city).

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Spawn
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
Cod, yes apparently.

Three possibilities IMO:

A) A 'rainbow coalition' of the Labour, the Lib Dems, various nationalists and Caroline Lucas (the Greens' have taken Brighton).

B) A Tory/Lib Dem coalition

C) Tory minority government propped up by the DUP.

The likelihood of A is increased by the fact that Labour gets first go at cobbling together a coalition. It would be horribly unwieldy though and would involve buying off lots of small interest groups. B is what we'll probably get. C would be horrible (from my leftish point of view anyway).

The BNP have got nowhere (no surprise). Caroline Lucas wasn't that much of a surprise either, though I don't think its as big a deal as the Greens will make out. Its an unusual constituency and they're still pretty marginal across the UK (admittedly I'm biased...the Greens are powerful on my local city council and haven't exactly been good for the city).

Whatever happens we'll be voting in another General Election in the next few years. My guess and preference is for Conservative minority rule but not with any substantial handouts to Northern Ireland - that would simply be unjust when swingeing cuts of our bloated public sector are in order for the rest of the UK.
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Cod
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I think a) is not made so unlikely, as the parties concerned do have a fair bit in common. Also, the smaller parties would be sensible not to forgo the chance of government simply by riding a hobby horse too hard. I think, however, Clegg has boxed himself in somewhat by saying that he can't work with Gordo.

Perhaps Millipede as PM with Vince Cable as Chancellor?

b) sounds a non-starter, given that the Tories are (predictably enough) not interested in electoral reform.

Perhaps we will have a small dose of c) while Cameron attempts to get his ratings up, whereupon he will call another election to get a working majority.

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Barnabas62
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I think "first past the post" is now a "bust", which is probably the best thing to have come out of last night. I think Cameron will become PM with LibDem acquiescence, provided they find the right form of words and promises re electoral reform. If that can't be done, it's a bit of a mess.

But I reckon it can be. All Cameron has to do is pick up the phone. If Clegg has any sense, he'll resist the "temptation" to go for a LibLab pact, which would probably be seen as a coalition of the night's losers - and cause losses next time. Better to let Cameron pick up the "poisoned chalice". Game on.

I'm also wondering if some of the voting shambles (which seems likely to produce a few re-runs) might be an x-factor in all of this. The numbers are very close, even when one looks at possible coalitions.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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The Exegesis Fairy
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The DUP won 8 seats (Sinn Fein have either 4 or 5, depending on this recount). That's not enough for a Con/DUP majority, unless the Conservatives win all the remaining seats available.

Plus the DUP will wring crippling concessions out of them. Northern Ireland is an expensive proposition.

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Today is not your day.
Tomorrow doesn't look good either.

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Matt Black

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Cameron's problem with Clegg is that he can't carry his party to do a deal on electoral reform, which places him in a weak position re negotiating with the Lib Dems. The alternaive is a 'coalition of the losers' which is more unpalatable morally but I regret to say is the more likely outcome, albeit with Other Dave (Miliband) as PM rather than Gord-help-us.

Worst possible outcome for business and the economy.

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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

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Ender's Shadow
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An Israeli perspective. Note that last paragraph:
quote:
And there is also some agreement that the British system, as Lord Mandelson said on Friday morning, “is on its last legs.” Ironically, he and other political leaders are looking to proportional representation as a panacea. We here, of course, know better.



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Test everything. Hold on to the good.

Please don't refer to me as 'Ender' - the whole point of Ender's Shadow is that he isn't Ender.

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Barnabas62
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I agree with The Exegesis Fairy. I'm not sure Cameron should go courting Welsh, Scottish and/or Irish parties - they'd want economic preference deals which would play very badly for the Tories, given their huge gains in England.

Nope, I reckon it's a "no-brainer" for him to seek some accommodation with the LibDems - and give away as little as possible. Matt, you're right that it might not win, given the constraints on Cameron - but I'm sure he's got to try. Heck, the Tories are huge winners on the popular vote front. The only way to lose next time is to be seen to lack the will to accommodate.

[ 07. May 2010, 08:49: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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The Exegesis Fairy
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Then again, Barnabas, he's going to have to give SOMETHING. It's within the power of the Conservatives to command a majority, but it's in their hands. Don't give the little'uns what they want? Oh...well, sorry. Never mind. Lib/Lab coalition it is...

The question is, how much are the Conservatives prepared to give for a chance at governing? Pretty much any coalition government is going to include the Lib Dems. (Is that electoral reform I hear knocking? Probably not, but I'd like it if it were. More likely it's crazy Aunt Ethel).

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I can only please one person a day.
Today is not your day.
Tomorrow doesn't look good either.

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Yerevan
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quote:
I think a) is not made so unlikely, as the parties concerned do have a fair bit in common. Also, the smaller parties would be sensible not to forgo the chance of government simply by riding a hobby horse too hard. I think, however, Clegg has boxed himself in somewhat by saying that he can't work with Gordo.

Perhaps Millipede as PM with Vince Cable as Chancellor?

I'm not sure the Lib Dems have boxed themselves in. Gordon's Brown's so unpopular that they couldn't possibly be seen to put him back in power anyway. It will be interesting to see if a Lib-Lab pact with Plaid Cymru, Caroline Lucas and suitable Northern Irish MPs (i.e. the SDLP, the one independent liberal unionist MP and the Alliance Party) would give them a majority. It just about might.


quote:
b) sounds a non-starter, given that the Tories are (predictably enough) not interested in electoral reform.

I'm not sure. The Tory alternative would be to govern by the skin of their teeth with DUP support. There's a few problems with this. Firstly, the DUP have already named their price (complete Northern Irish immunity from cuts) which would be very very hard to sell to the rest of the UK. Secondly, a coalition with the party of Paisley would hurt Cameron's attempts to modernise the Tories. Thirdly the Tories are already united to a rival unionist party (the UUP). Clegg and Cameron on the other hand could both sell compromise with each other as necesary for the greater good (they are the only two parties capable of forming a stable coalition). And on certain issues (civil liberties, the enviroment) the Cameron modernisers aren't that far from the Lib Dems anyway.
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Yerevan
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ES, Israel's hardly a typical representative democracy though is it?
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Cod
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
If Clegg has any sense, he'll resist the "temptation" to go for a LibLab pact, which would probably be seen as a coalition of the night's losers - and cause losses next time. Better to let Cameron pick up the "poisoned chalice". Game on.

I think either way there are going to be Lib Dem losses at the next election.

Scenario 1. The Conservatives form a minority government. They go into campaign mode and and insist that the country's finances are in such a mess (which they are) that only their medicine will cure it (I suspect many will swallow this one). Cameron then calls an election. The Conservatives' vote increases and they are re-elected having taken a swathe of seats lost to the Lib Dems in 97, 01 and 05. Other Lib Dem voters swing back to Labour, and leave the Lib Dems were they were in the 1970s - 16% of the vote and about fifteen seats or less. Electoral reform goes off the agenda for the next fifty years.

Scenario 2: Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and possibly Alliance NI cobble together a coalition. The junior partners insist on electoral reform. They all get smashed at the next election in terms of the popular vote, but remain with as many or more seats in Parliament under AV+. In time, their vote share recovers.

Clegg should go with Labour.

[ 07. May 2010, 08:52: Message edited by: Cod ]

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Matt Black

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But, Barnabas, what could Cameron possibly offer Clegg to tempt him except a committment to electoral reform?

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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

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The Exegesis Fairy
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Argh, edit window.

Sorry Barnabas, you made most of my points already, but half your post didn't appear on my screen. Oops.

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I can only please one person a day.
Today is not your day.
Tomorrow doesn't look good either.

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Alwyn
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With 290 Conservative seats, 35 seats left to declare and the need to achieve 326 seats to win, a hung Parliament now seems certain.

In July 2007, there were serious negotiations between the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats about forming a coalition in the Welsh Assembly. But they could not agree on issues such as the introduction of proportional representation (for local elections). Apparently, the Welsh Conservatives and David Cameron were willing to consider this proposal but the Shadow Cabinet wouldn't accept it (source: Vernon Bagdanor, 'The New British Constitution').

I don't think that the Conservatives would accept PR for Westminster elections. Would it be safe to assume that PR would be the price of a formal Conservative-Lib Dem coalition? In the absence of a coalition, will there be an informal understanding between them, or something else?

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Post hoc, ergo propter hoc

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Pottage
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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Reasonable point. Except that a simple mean doesn't really tell you anything. You need much more detailed figures.

Remember, the vast majority of people have an above average number of legs...


Actually, in context a simple mean can tell you plenty. If someone is arguing from a particular instance (the experience of their own employment history or the performance of their own pension for example) on the implicit basis that this is representative of the situation for most people, a mean derived from the circumstances of millions of people might show that this is inaccurate.

Anyway, back to the fallout. If it can be put together, I think the least bad outcome would be a Conservative/LibDem pact. Only two partners' differing aspirations would need to be balanced which is potentially no more fractious than some individual parties with disparate wings and power bases. There's the possibility that such a government might be able to hold itself together for a while before unravelling over their inherent incompatibility and resulting in a further election. A minimum of a full fiscal year before we have to go through another election would be useful in terms of stability.

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Doc Tor
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
ES, Israel's hardly a typical representative democracy though is it?

There's PR and there's PR. I'd be quite happy with single member constituencies elected by transferable vote. I don't want lists, as they disconnect voters from representatives, and favour party patronage.

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Forward the New Republic

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Yerevan
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Doc Tor,
Agreed. Lists etc are horrible. I grew up with the Irish system of PR, which works well (IMO), doesn't involve lists and was (ironically enough) invented for us by the British as part of the settlement leading to Irish independence back in 1922. Maybe you guys could have it back...

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Uriel
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My first post on this thread. I was acting as presiding officer on a polling station all of yesterday. Regarding the queues and people being turned away in a few seats, the law is quite simple - the polling station closes at 10pm, and anyone not issued with a vote at 10pm (even if they are in the polling station) cannot vote. It is not for presiding officers to arbitrarily change the law according to extraordinary local circumstances as and when they see fit - that really would leave the results open to legal challenge.

However, if I had seen a long queue and knew that I couldn't process everyone in time for the 10 o'clock deadline then I would do the following:
- tell everyone in the queue that they will be given a ballot paper and they should come into the polling station.
- Lock the polling station doors at 10 o'clock
- give everyone a voting paper but announce that it may only be cast once they have also been checked on the electoral register
- only let the voters cast their vote after they have been double checked that they are on the electoral register. It is this checking that takes the time, especially if the voter hasn't brought their polling card.
- anyone who isn't on the electoral register for that polling station (e.g. they turned up to the wrong polling station or didn't register in time) will have to return the voting paper issued to them which is then cancelled as a spoilt ballot.
- Everyone else would have to wait patiently while the checking process is gone through, but they will at least have been given their voting paper legally and be able to cast it legally.

I didn't have to resort to this irregular if legal measure as we only had 3 voters in the last half hour, despite a strong turnout overall. No student population surging out of the bars to vote in the last hour...

As for reports that some stations ran out of ballot papers, that is just poor management. I have always had enough ballots in case of 100% turnout, and a few to spare in case of re-issues for spoilt ballots.

Cheers,

Uriel
(Who is knackered after a 16 hour day at the polling station, followed by staying up to watch results come in).

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
But, Barnabas, what could Cameron possibly offer Clegg to tempt him except a committment to electoral reform?

A referendum this year on electoral reform? Even if the Tories said "we'll vote against" (which they probably would), the general "let the people decide" would be a popular line. Clegg might buy that. Maybe with a few sweeteners thrown in?

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Doc Tor
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(to Uriel)

God bless you, sir. [Overused]

Get some kip in, as we may be doing it all again sooner than usual.

[ 07. May 2010, 09:05: Message edited by: Doc Tor ]

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Cod
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
Doc Tor,
Agreed. Lists etc are horrible. I grew up with the Irish system of PR, which works well (IMO), doesn't involve lists and was (ironically enough) invented for us by the British as part of the settlement leading to Irish independence back in 1922. Maybe you guys could have it back...

Actually it was pioneered in Australia in the nineteenth century.

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M Barnier

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Malin

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Do you think they have all their scenarios planned out in the backrooms? Surely they must have seen a hung result as possible/probable? I know they can't choose a path until the final count is in but there must be war games on all this?

Just wondering how long it will be until there is clear leadership and enough stability for the markets.

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'It's a thing that is,' said Granny sharply. 'Don't go spilling allegory all down your shirt.' Terry Pratchett

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North East Quine

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It feels as though I was part of a different election north of the Border. Labour were actually increasing their majority in some Scottish seats, although the oft-predicted scenario of no Scottish Conservative MPs hasn't happened - Mundell remains our single Tory.

Obviously, it's annoying for Scotland to vote for a left wing party and end up with a right wing one, but it must also be annoying for English right wingers that they're stuck with a solid block of Scottish Labour MPs.

Currently the situation in Scotland is: 41 Labour, 10 Lib Dem (expected to be 11 once the Argyll declares), 6 SNP, 1 Conservative. Take Scotland out of the equation, and there would be a clear Conservative majority.

How frustrating is this for English Conservatives?

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Alwyn
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Nick Clegg is saying that the Conservatives deserve the first opportunity to seek a coalition with the Lib Dems (BBC).

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Post hoc, ergo propter hoc

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Rosa Winkel

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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
As someone on Radio 4 said this morning, "The people have spoken. We’re just not sure what they've said."

That was David Milliband. A great quote.
No, it was Ashcroft.

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The Disability and Jesus "Locked out for Lent" project

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Barnabas62
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Smart speech by Clegg. The ball is in Cameron's court. Any "LibLab pact" can only now follow a prior failure of the Tories to get the LibDems onside. A failure by Cameron to have "meaningful negotiations" with the LibDems would probably rebound on the Tories, rather than the LibDems. Clegg got the word out first, and the word confirmed what he said before the results were out.

[ 07. May 2010, 09:52: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Marvin the Martian

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quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
How frustrating is this for English Conservatives?

Hugely. West Lothian rears its head again.

Frankly, I think the best outcome for Britain now would be for Brown to attempt to cling onto power by his grubby little fingertips for as long as he can, and despite the clear statement from the voters that we want him gone. The popular backlash in the inevitable repeat election that would happen no more than a year later would take the Conservatives to a clear victory, and a clear mandate for change.

What a mess though. I can't understand how so many people in this country choose to believe scare stories, spin and propoganda over the actual evidence - lies, corruption, bureaucracy, centralisation and the constant assault on freedoms and liberties - we've all seen in the last 13 years.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Cod
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Or perhaps Ashdown? (I'm sure I saw it attributed to Milliband, but it's more an Ashdown thing to say).

Nice to see, on the same blog, a comment from Ashcroft saying that he will step down from the Tories. Good riddance.

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M Barnier

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The Exegesis Fairy
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My favourite moment (born and bred in Northern Ireland as I am) was when the DUP leader was ousted by the ALLIANCE party, winning their first-ever seat. Brilliant moment, seriously.

(The Alliance party: not unionist or nationalist, more, 'Wouldn't it be nice if everyone was nice'. Basically the LibDems in Northern Ireland.)

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I can only please one person a day.
Today is not your day.
Tomorrow doesn't look good either.

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Matt Black

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
How frustrating is this for English Conservatives?

Hugely. West Lothian rears its head again.

Frankly, I think the best outcome for Britain now would be for Brown to attempt to cling onto power by his grubby little fingertips for as long as he can, and despite the clear statement from the voters that we want him gone. The popular backlash in the inevitable repeat election that would happen no more than a year later would take the Conservatives to a clear victory, and a clear mandate for change.


Much as I'd like to see a Conservative majority, I think the scenario you've outlined will be disastrous for the economy.

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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

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+Chad

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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
(to Uriel)

God bless you, sir. [Overused]

Hear, hear. Common sense and sanity.

quote:
Get some kip in, as we may be doing it all again sooner than usual.
[Eek!] but I fear you are right.

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Chad (The + is silent)

Where there is tea there is hope.

Posts: 2698 | From: The Backbone of England | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Rosa Winkel

Saint Anger round my neck
# 11424

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I think it's worse for the Scottish Tories. They had a very bad night.

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The Disability and Jesus "Locked out for Lent" project

Posts: 3271 | From: Wrocław | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged
Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Much as I'd like to see a Conservative majority, I think the scenario you've outlined will be disastrous for the economy.

Sadly, I don't think there's much that can be done about that now. Whichever coalition ends up running the show, there will be so much horse trading and behind-closed-doors machinations that market confidence may struggle to recover.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Spawn
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# 4867

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Smart speech by Clegg. The ball is in Cameron's court. Any "LibLab pact" can only now follow a prior failure of the Tories to get the LibDems onside. A failure by Cameron to have "meaningful negotiations" with the LibDems would probably rebound on the Tories, rather than the LibDems. Clegg got the word out first, and the word confirmed what he said before the results were out.

It wouldn't necessarily rebound on the Conservatives, if the LibDems insisted on PR (a secondary issue) while the economy (the only thing that really matters) was going down the pan. The markets will punish even a few days inaction.
Posts: 3447 | From: North Devon | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Ender's Shadow
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# 2272

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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
ES, Israel's hardly a typical representative democracy though is it?

No but it's negative experiences with PR have been replicated in both France and Italy which have both moved away it (See here for the Italian History and the French and elsewhere 2 round system).

One scenario for the future:
Brown meets the House and loses a vote of no confidence. Cameron is invited to form a government and fails to gain support, so a Labour minority returns to power, makes serious proposals for cuts and is ejected, leading to a Conservative majority i.e. Cameron should play the long game. The Lib Dems can't support a Labour government headed by Brown, but on his resignation Cameron must have the next try - Labour can't expect to be invited to try for a new government if Brown resigns as leader, which is the minimum Clegg can agree to, having committed himself to wanting change if Labour lost both the popular vote and the number of seats.

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Test everything. Hold on to the good.

Please don't refer to me as 'Ender' - the whole point of Ender's Shadow is that he isn't Ender.

Posts: 5018 | From: Manchester, England | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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Spawn

I've no doubt that calculation is exercising David Cameron and his advisers right now. Alligators and swamps? Of course Clegg and Cameron will find some ways of agreeing on an emergency budget - else they will both lose. But Cameron cannot afford to lose the "meally-mouthed" contest. And being "mean" on electoral reform would, I think, look like that. The promise of a referendum would be a small, swamp-draining, price to pay for tackling the alligators together. Clegg could concede a lot on an emergency budget in exchange for that, and still come out looking good.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Callan
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# 525

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quote:
Originally posted by The Exegesis Fairy:
My favourite moment (born and bred in Northern Ireland as I am) was when the DUP leader was ousted by the ALLIANCE party, winning their first-ever seat. Brilliant moment, seriously.

(The Alliance party: not unionist or nationalist, more, 'Wouldn't it be nice if everyone was nice'. Basically the LibDems in Northern Ireland.)

Hilarious. The Alliance Party for years have been the party of opposition to sectarianism and terrorism and therefore no-one took them seriously. The Tories even introduced PR into Northern Ireland in order to give them a leg up with absolutely no discernable effect whatsoever.

Then the whole coo-coo-ca-choo Mrs Robinson thang kicks in and suddenly they've defenestrated the leader of the DUP.

As the Alliance Party are part of the Liberal International and would, presumably, sit and vote with the Damn Libs there is a distinct possibility that Mrs Robinson's indiscretion has not merely propelled Ms Long into the House of Commons but quite possibly onto the government benches.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Ender's Shadow
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# 2272

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Sorry - should have explained that the French system replaced the PR which was blamed for the weakness of the 3rd and 4th Republic governments from 1870 until 1958

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Test everything. Hold on to the good.

Please don't refer to me as 'Ender' - the whole point of Ender's Shadow is that he isn't Ender.

Posts: 5018 | From: Manchester, England | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
Spawn
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# 4867

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Spawn

I've no doubt that calculation is exercising David Cameron and his advisers right now. Alligators and swamps? Of course Clegg and Cameron will find some ways of agreeing on an emergency budget - else they will both lose. But Cameron cannot afford to lose the "meally-mouthed" contest. And being "mean" on electoral reform would, I think, look like that. The promise of a referendum would be a small, swamp-draining, price to pay for tackling the alligators together. Clegg could concede a lot on an emergency budget in exchange for that, and still come out looking good.

mmm, having lost MPs, I'm not sure that the LibDems are in as strong a negotiating position as people seem to think.
Posts: 3447 | From: North Devon | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Alwyn
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# 4380

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
... market confidence may struggle to recover.

quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
... The markets will punish even a few days inaction.

'The markets'? Are they totally unrelated to the people who crashed our economy into a wall and demanded an £850 billion bailout, leaving us with £799 billion in government debt?

We don't talk about health or education workers as 'the health' or 'the education' and let them dictate how our political leaders should respond to a hung Parliament. Maybe it's time to stop talking about City traders as if they were some sort of natural, neutral and impersonal force? Maybe someone should tell 'the markets' that they had one vote each, the same as everybody else.

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Post hoc, ergo propter hoc

Posts: 849 | From: UK | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
Matt Black

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# 2210

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They're also the engine that may (or may not, depending on what sort of government is formed) create the jobs and business that is so badly needed by the economy.

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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
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# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
mmm, having lost MPs, I'm not sure that the LibDems are in as strong a negotiating position as people seem to think.

Despite gaining votes? No, the paradox of this is that with an increased share of the vote coupled with a loss of seats, Clegg looks to have good case for electoral reform. And I think the TV debates helped him as well. And he did look pretty statesmanlike and grown up this morning.

On BBC TV "Paxo" has just had a hilarious conversation with Boris Johnson, suggesting that some electoral reform concession would be a small price to pay. Boris produced some great metaphors about meccanos and sausages, but in the process produced a comment that the result was the electorate's way of punishing Labour, Tories and LibDems! Not bad. A certain humility is required. And given that, as Boris put it, most of the meat in the government sausage will be Tory meat, they are going to have to give something, however painful they might find that. If Clegg plays his cards right, he'll get something good out of this.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Alwyn
Shipmate
# 4380

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Fair point - yes, what City workers do has great value. I have no problem with listening to them about the economic effects of a delayed process. Their views deserve to be given appropriate (but not excessive) weight.

I do have a problem, with City workers demanding a quick outcome, if that leads to rushed, bad decision-making by party leaders in their current state of crumpledness.

Mr Cameron is bright and energetic, but he just campaigned through the night. I imagine that all the party leaders are totally worn out. Would you want to make vitally important decisions about your own life when you were totally exhausted? What about making decisions that will affect the lives of millions of other people for years to come?

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Post hoc, ergo propter hoc

Posts: 849 | From: UK | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
Yerevan
Shipmate
# 10383

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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Sorry - should have explained that the French system replaced the PR which was blamed for the weakness of the 3rd and 4th Republic governments from 1870 until 1958

To be fair those governments would have been pretty weak for reasons that had nothing to do with PR. For example the 3rd Republic was deeply divided (Catholics/monarchists v republicans plus the rise of socialism and a range of anarchists and nutty rightists) and had just lost a war and two provinces to Berlin. One problem with assessing the impact of PR is separating it out from all the other factors at work. The Irish Republic is an example of a country that has remained remarkably stable under PR, despite the destabilising effects of the Northern Ireland troubles, relative poverty for most of the 20th century and a nasty civil war in the 1920s which divided the country for half a century. Italy is an example of a country that hasn't. In both cases deeper forces were probably at work stabilising or destabilising the situation. The question isn't how PR has worked in country X or Y. Its how it would work in the UK.
Posts: 3758 | From: In the middle | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
Spawn
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# 4867

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Despite gaining votes? No, the paradox of this is that with an increased share of the vote coupled with a loss of seats, Clegg looks to have good case for electoral reform. And I think the TV debates helped him as well. And he did look pretty statesmanlike and grown up this morning.

He hasn't gained many votes. LibDems had about 22 per cent in 2005 and is just shy of 23 per cent on the results so far.
Posts: 3447 | From: North Devon | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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I was (regrettably) right about the Lib Dem vote not holding out at the end of the campaign: I think it got squeezed and some of those who had said "don't know" when polled before the vote may have made their mind up. If Nick Clegg hadn't boosted the vote as a result of the first leaders' debate they could have done worse.

Plenty of good news though: the BNP opposed resolutely on the issues and defeated, Green Party representation, the Alliance win in Northern Ireland and the "Respect" candidates including George Galloway, trailing in third in Bethnal Green & Bow and Poplar & Limehouse.

Meanwhile Jack Dromey MP is being interviewed by Jeremy Paxman and he really is saying that the Conservatives are the "big losers!" Horseshit!

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Yerevan
Shipmate
# 10383

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quote:
Meanwhile Jack Dromey MP is being interviewed by Jeremy Paxman and he really is saying that the Conservatives are the "big losers!" Horseshit!
It is, but the Tories aren't clear winners either. They haven't been able to win a clear majority even when faced with Labour (deeply unpopular & in office since forever) and the Lib Dems (weak) and boosted by a recession. They're only 7% ahead of Labour on the popular vote, which isn't terribly impressive. In fact the popular vote has pretty much gone to the left of centre, which has 52% compared with Cameron's 36%, and thats without counting the nationalist parties and the Greens.
Posts: 3758 | From: In the middle | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
Rosa Winkel

Saint Anger round my neck
# 11424

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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
quote:
Meanwhile Jack Dromey MP is being interviewed by Jeremy Paxman and he really is saying that the Conservatives are the "big losers!" Horseshit!
It is, but the Tories aren't clear winners either. They haven't been able to win a clear majority even when faced with Labour (deeply unpopular & in office since forever) and the Lib Dems (weak) and boosted by a recession. They're only 7% ahead of Labour on the popular vote, which isn't terribly impressive. In fact the popular vote has pretty much gone to the left of centre, which has 52% compared with Cameron's 36%, and thats without counting the nationalist parties and the Greens.
Very good point.

Plus, the racist parties did terribly.

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The Disability and Jesus "Locked out for Lent" project

Posts: 3271 | From: Wrocław | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged



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