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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Circus: Mafia - the Valley of the Kings
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Here's why I voted against Professor McBride. I think claiming to be a Mason is a claim that would be highly risky to fake. So I believe Eliab. Therefore I don't want to lynch him. And there aren't enough votes left to lynch Miss Smudgeson, even if I wanted to leave our teatent proprietorless..
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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CuppaT
Shipmate
# 10523
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Posted
Papagena wandered back out into the deserted desert to look for some beetles, or perhaps a mouse of some sort, maybe even a snake, if she were so lucky. There seemed no point to staying around Camp Sarastro any longer this day; she had stalked around the professor's tent and he had a death smell about him already.
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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony
Posts: 919 | From: the edge of the Ozarks | Registered: Oct 2005
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Smudgie
Ship's Barnacle
# 2716
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Posted
I too am beginning to become increasingly suspicious of Professor McBride.
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Miss you, Erin.
Posts: 14382 | From: Under the duvet | Registered: Apr 2002
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Arsène Beauregard had wearily trodden from his sleeping tent to his desk in the desert to resume his interrupted slumber.
First, however, he checked the desktop papyrus for new inscriptions and found that much had been scribbled there during the night. All was over, a sufficiently large mob had gathered to throw another professor into the quicksand by the oasis.
The masons were not allowed to out themselves at the current time of day (he still thought it wise if they did so the morrow) and thus Eli should have a chance to have his claim substantiated.
But anyways, he counted a score of 7-2 (one of which in self-defense). His vote was irrelevant.
But he had said he'd vote with the majority. Professor McBride, this way please ...
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Here's why I voted against Professor McBride. I think claiming to be a Mason is a claim that would be highly risky to fake. So I believe Eliab.
The only problem is that he made that claim just before the time to defend oneself was over, so Professor McBride could not give an adequate defense against Eli's Masonic claim.
Of course, Professor MacBride's question to the lesser feline deity might not be so naive either, as he could have asked for an opportunity not to make a defense, thus mudding the waters further.
Anyway, I waited long enough for the other Masons to contradict Eli's claim by voting against him without revealing their identities. Therefore I think it's plausible at this stage that Eli is indeed a Mason, even though there were problems in his reasoning.
So, I will vote for Professor McBride. One warning though: If the Professor is innocent, then, Eli, you will not get away with it!
[ 28. October 2010, 09:58: Message edited by: El Greco ]
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Imaginary Friend
Real to you
# 186
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Posted
"For the record, we don't know for sure that there are any Masons" pointed out the Dead Man Walking.
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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough
Posts: 9455 | From: Left a bit... Right a bit... | Registered: May 2001
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
"For the record, we don't know for sure that there are any Masons" pointed out the Dead Man Walking.
True, but it would be quite a bluff for Eli to wager on that!
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
The votes are in -
Professor McBride - 10 votes
Eli Abrahams - 2 votes.
(Papagena/CuppaT has disappeared off into the desert - just this once I'll let it pass, especially since her PM box is full.)
Camp Sarastro is a dangerous place for academics. The Professor is well and truly lynched. He was a citizen.
Once Imaginary Friend has posted a death scene, night will fall.
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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CuppaT
Shipmate
# 10523
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Posted
Having had her fill of the wildlife in the sands, Papagena returns to the wildlife of the camp. Never being one to simply follow the crowd, she points her nose toward the tea shop of Miss Smudgeson, knowing that it will do neither harm nor good.
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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony
Posts: 919 | From: the edge of the Ozarks | Registered: Oct 2005
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
bugger
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Imaginary Friend
Real to you
# 186
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Posted
The professor mounted the platform which had been erected for his hanging. As the noose was placed over his head, he demanded a final word to his accusers:
"Now you have significant evidence that Mr Abrahams is not as innocent as he appears. Look at what he has said carefully: examine it for unsubstantiated assumptions; look for who is vocal in agreeing with him; think carefully about the opportunities for deception that present themselves when someone with a forceful personality and a penchant for verbosity grabs the attention of the crowd. In short: look at the actual evidence, think for yourselves, and don't ever rely on the rabble-rouser to make decisions for you."
With that, the masked executioner pulled the noose tight, motioned that the professor should stand on a tall stool, and put a sackcloth bag over his head. The prisoner did as he was told, and a moment later the stool was kicked from under his feet.
The longest drop...
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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough
Posts: 9455 | From: Left a bit... Right a bit... | Registered: May 2001
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
I'm sorry, Professor. You might have been my father's arch-nemesis, but you didn't deserve such an end.
It seems that we have been fooled by Eli's cunning plan. Although I did suspect him for the silliness he tried to pass as reasonable thinking, and I did try to warn others about him, it seems that most were just deaf to the oracles of the Gods.
But you should rest in peace, Professor, because the Great Vultures will tear your soul apart, for not believing in the Gods. It sounds painful, and it is, but it's also a great honor, because you will be able to see the Vultures themselves, even for a brief moment, as they tear you apart in the Underworld. According to the most holy religion of the Egyptians, you will be granted this honor because you were a great scholar. Not bad for an unbeliever!
You should rest assured that Eli will get no such honor as the Worms With No Heads devour the intestines of his soul once he gets lynched for the injustice brought to you.
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
Night falls, lights out everyone.
And go to sleep this time. Or at least pretend to (reading a book under your bedcovers with a torch is allowable).
If you have a night action, please PM me now. Some of you were a bit slow last time - I may chivy you along a bit tonight if you don't make up your minds a bit quicker ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
Haji awoke during the night to find a scarab beetle crawling over his forehead. Flicking it off, he noticed a menacing figure lurking in the shadows. This guardian was the last thing he would notice until on the last day he was awakened from his grave for the judgment. In his deathly sleep he dreamt, and was surprised at just how like Osiris Allah looked in his dreams...
[ 29. October 2010, 15:47: Message edited by: Hart ]
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Banner Lady
Ship's Ensign
# 10505
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Posted
Lady Bernardine awoke to....no sound at all. It was very strange, for usually the first thing to be heard in the morning was the monotonous drone of the Imam Haji at prayer. She put her head out of the tent, but the only thing stirring was the pathetic figure of Professor McBride swinging limply from the yard-arm.
She shuddered. Had something happened to Haji? Lord, how she needed a cup of tea; but even the tea tent was closed. She sat down at her folding table and began composing another letter home.
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Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.
Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
Apologies for the delay, the cat goddess was at her birthday party ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
Haji (Hart) has been most foully murdered. He was both a mason and the miller.
Nominations open.
Since we've now hit the weekend, nominations/defence will probably run until about Tuesday night.
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
Does this mean Eli is both a Mason and stupid? ![[Paranoid]](graemlins/paranoid.gif)
It wouldn't be a surprise of course. The Masons admit just anyone in their ranks these days. That's why nobody takes them seriously at the gatherings of our Cult.
Was Eli extremely unlucky in his choice of McBride, or is he really guilty and the local imam didn't bother to say?
Pff.... Imams, Masons, a curse to both their houses!
[ 30. October 2010, 09:04: Message edited by: El Greco ]
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Banner Lady
Ship's Ensign
# 10505
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Posted
"Eli Abrahams" wrote Lady Bernardine, "is no doubt quite capable of explaining away everything in his favour; but actions speak louder than words, and his actions have been destructive. I am resolute in my nomination."
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Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.
Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Seth felt dupped. Eli had a captive audience and now two innocent people were dead. He had better show up soon for some kind of explanation. Were the guardians sacrificing one of their own? What the hell was going on? Did a miller look at another miller and see a guilty person? Seth sat and waited as his camels groans travelled out over the desert sands.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
I think now might be the right time for the Masons to speak.
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Warning: longest post of my life.
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
"Eli Abrahams" wrote Lady Bernardine, "is no doubt quite capable of explaining away everything in his favour; but actions speak louder than words, and his actions have been destructive. I am resolute in my nomination."
Steady!
What action precisely, thought Arsène? Nominating an innocent? Anybody who is active (e.g. nominates) runs that risk. We'd be ill-advised to punish activity on no other ground than that.
My original nomination (and McBride had made the same reasoning independently at almost the same time) was based on Eli's weak exoneration of Haji and Tavish.
That was yesterday. Today we know more.
We know that Haji was a mason and Eli claims to be one. If that was true his standing up for Haji even with relatively weak arguments would become very explicable, would it not?
Please explain: What other bad actions from Eli do you have in mind?
quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
Does this mean Eli is both a Mason and stupid?
Arsène is not sure why the killing of Hajj meant Eli should be stupid. And, as he just said, proposing an innocent for lynching is not stupid or suspicious in itself either, so long as there good arguments are brought forth. The more arguments someone brings the more information can be found about that someone as the days go by. Good for innocents, bad for guardians.
So what information have we gained ?
We now know there was a mason. The nature of the role requires there must be at least one more.
Hajj did not declare himself a mason and substantiate Eliab's claim.
This may be bc he felt his team would gain less by that information than the Guardians would.
Or it may be bc he thought the rules forbade it.
Or bc it was not true.
BUT he also did not contradict Eli's claim - the greatest risk for anyone making a false "I am a mason" claim.
Haji undoubtedly would have denounced a false mason claim (says Arsène hoping that it was not just a matter of not logging into the camp in time before nightfall (Eli's claim came very late in the day - suspiciously late? Not necessarily).
I quickly skimmed through the last pages. I had a wrong recollection in one of my earlier posts.
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Hart seemed independently have come to a similar conclusion re Eli Abrahams as he had
But it was not Haji (Hart) who had suggested nominating Eli but McBride (Imag. Fiend. His post had been written simultaneouisly with mine, posted just above).
By contrast Haji far from nominating him once spoke up for Eli!
quote:
Originally posted by Hart:
Given the choice between McBride, Eli and no lynching and no additional arguments beyond what have already been offered, I'd vote McBride.
And incidentally another player supported his accusation in a situation where Eli himself was already nominated:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I am persuaded by Eli Abraham's (Eliab's) reasoning nominating Professor McBride (Imaginary Friend),
Supporting his accusation is one way of helping a player who is accused. And speaking up briefly for one another is a safe strategy for masons. At least until the first of them dies when earlier posts will reveal these connections. But remember: we win or lose as a team.
Unless he overlooked something, all this imho points towards an innocent Eli. Yep, Arsène changed his mind in the light of new information.
And now another question. What can we conclude from last night's choice of victim? Why did the guardians pick Haji? What, if anything made him stand out from the crowd? I don't have the time now to re-read all he said but a clue might be there (or they know his character as a player and found him dangerous solely on that basis) - either he was saying, proposing something dangerous to them. Or they wanted to make it look that way so that we would be pointed in a wrong direction.
Arsène is lazy, he has to return to his desk sleep again. If they had time, let one of those Brits check through Haji's contributions.
Just one last thing: Arsène was approaching the conclusion that he preferred Beaujolais to tea. Also the memories of an earlier encounter in that wee village called IRL had become blurred by nasty suspicions.
He increasingly disliked Miss Smudgeson's behaviour. Twice cast very late and non-decisive votes. Inconspicuous. And her postings were solely musings on the nature of tea and declarations on the harmlessness of a tea-lady. No reflections that one day could be found to be incriminating in the Light Of Hindsight - it all looked like someone attempting to be invisible while still showing up in public (since absence was often regarded as suspicious in this camp).
As it happens, Ms Rose had seemingly had similar thoughts (in the same post supporting Eli Abrahams quoted above) .
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
the nomination of Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson (Smudgie) is an interesting one. Is voting last an inconspicuous enough place for the Mafia to hide out?
Arsène Beauregard will therefore nominate Miss Smudgeson unless some other contribution to this debate either shows his a flaw in his thinking above or looks like a much better and coherent suggestion.
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
Dai Mortal had been puzzled by the suspicions cast upon Eli Abrahams. Dai could see no good reason for someone to lie about being a mason. It didn't make sense for a mafia member to claim to be a mason; the risk of contradiction was too high.
Dai had a lot more confidence in Abrahams' reasoning than he did in magic glasses supposedly hidden in the tomb. Logic and sanity are good. Dai liked logic and sanity. He didn't like magic artifacts hidden in ancient tombs. They just led to tentacles and other bad things.
[ 30. October 2010, 18:38: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Smudgie
Ship's Barnacle
# 2716
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Posted
Miss Smudgeson decided that today the people in the camp needs must go without their refreshing cuppa. She was too shocked at the death of her fellow mason, Haji. With the Imam dead and herself and Eli Abrahams accused of his murder, the lodge was looking decidedly at risk, and the demise of the lodge could well lead to the demise of all good citizens in the neighbourhood and a victory for evil.
It appeared that one person in particular appeared to have it in for the brotherhood, and that person was Andrew Whiskers. Thinking about it, she realised that he also had most to gain from his father's death, living in the great man's shadow as he had and his clear intent of discrediting the masons and casting blame in their direction had to be pure bluff. Never trust a blustering archaeologist.
Miss Smudgeson shook the sand out of her handkerchief, wiped away a tear for the Imam and, with a deep breath, accused Andrew Whiskers (a.k.a El Greco).
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Miss you, Erin.
Posts: 14382 | From: Under the duvet | Registered: Apr 2002
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Eli mutters a hurried prayer to the Red Cat Goddess, declares the opinion that there was no God but God, and that Mohammed is his prophet, and reverently says the Shema Yisrael. He briefly considers crossing himself, but decides that things are not quite desperate enough to merit that. Not just yet.
He is surprised how acutely the death of Haji has affected him. That it was, statistically, quite likely that one of his fellow Masons would be killed, and that this might also be useful in establishing his own credentials, is something that he had already contemplated, but it had not occurred to him that he would actually miss them when they were gone. He shakes his head to clear the melancholy thoughts that threaten to fill his mind. Time enough for them later, HaShem (or the Goddess) willing. First catch the killers.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Very well. I have two things to convince you all of. Most importantly, that I have a sound plan for finding the killers. Also that I am innocent.
I'll start with the second, since it can only help the first.
I claimed to be a Mason. There were three possibilities - (1) I was lying, and there were no real Masons to contradict me. (2) I was lying, but there were real Masons. (3) I was telling the truth.
We now know that (1) cannot be. Haji was Mason.
We also know that (2) cannot be. Because if it were, Haji would have known that I was guilty, and he would both have said so and voted to lynch me. You can also see (with hindsight) that he said (and I confirmed) at the start that there were THREE Masons. So even if Haji had some obscure reason not to call me on a lie, there'd still be two others out there who can. And now that Miss Smudgeson has declared herself, too (she's telling the truth, by the way) one of them could score two for one if we were lying. No one will contradict us, of course, because we are the real Masons, and if a Guardian claims to be a Mason to speak against us, it's suicide for them as soon as one of us dies.
Convinced? I hope so.
So, my plan. I never claimed that Professor McBride was guilty. I hoped he would be. It would have been a nice bonus. But that wasn't why I nominated him. I nominated him because I had no idea who was guilty, and I could see no evidence of anyone else having a better plan, and I thought that if we had to guess, it would be best to guess at someone whose death would tell us something if we were wrong.
Now let's test that. Seven people voted not to lynch on the first day. McBride and Haji are dead, and innocent. McCallum (almost certainly) and Smudgeson (certainly) are also innocent. If (as I think likely) at least one cultist is amonst the remainder, we have Lady Bernardine, Papagena, and Arsène Beauregard as lead suspects.
I don't claim to know for sure that any of them are guilty. But Papagena and Lady Bernardine have both acted as an intelligent cultist might. Papagena has kept her head firmly down. Lady Bernardine chose an aggressive defence and voted to lynch me. If she was indeed guilty, she would have known that McBride was going to be proved innocent, so might have expected that to support her accusation of me. It was her bad luck that last night's victim proves that there are real Masons who can expose me if I'm lying.
I'm not certain that M. Beauregard is innocent, but I'll look at the other two first.
Andrew Whisker looks pretty suspicious to me, as well. I can see why my fellow Mason suspects him. But then again, he is quite palpably mad, and I hesitate to form any firm conclusion.
To summarise. We lynched McBride, not because we were convinced of his guilt, but because we were buying something with his life. Let's not squander it. We've got a pool of three suspects, two of whom are worth a close look, and one loon who wants me dead (which would make sense if I'm on the right trail).
So my advice is, Lady Bernardine, Papagena, Whisker. In that order. I can't guarantee that they are all guilty. I'd be astonished if they are all innocent.
[ 31. October 2010, 21:21: Message edited by: Eliab ]
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894
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Posted
A late night on guard once again kept the lieutenant sleeping until the heat of the day was unbearable; in this desert, though, that left him but little time to rest. He staggered in to the tea tent, his uniform in a state unbefiting a commissioned officer, and his rifle not in its usual place on his back. He blinked a few times, then asked Rose for some tea.
Needless to say, he was slightly embarrassed when he found out she wasn't Miss Smudgeson-rather than being mortified, as he would have been if awake.
He soon found himself with enough strong tea in front of him (the proprietress knew well enough not to waste the mild imported tea on half-awake soldiers who would have appreciated only the kindness, but not the tea) to bring him closer to life. He had mulled over many things during the night, especially once Papagena left him to...well, do whatever cats do in the night. He poured himself another cup of the ever-strengthening brew, then stopped, as if struck.
One of his ideas from the night, once hazy and indistinct, had come into sharp focus.
"Rose?"
"Yes Mr. Madoc?"
"I think I have an idea. There may just be a flaw in our strategy."
Owain laid out, mostly coherently, a thought he had pursued while he had once believed Eli to be a friend of the Guardians. Once, he had believed his advice to be self-serving; now, he thought it simply misguided.
According to Eli, the best thing for the potential turncoat to do was simply to wait as long as possible before deciding whether or not to defect; Lieutenant Madoc saw that this was perhaps the worst strategy for him or her to pursue. He also believed that Eli not only saw this, but was spreading disinformation for his own sake.
Each night this turncoat spent as a camp member was another night spent risking assassination by the Guardians. To join with them would only lower his or her risk of death; a lynching could kill them just as well if innocent as guilty, while the Guardians would never waste a night on one of their own. Once he or she had defected, however, the consequences for the camp would be disastrous.
First, the numbers would tip heavily in favor of the Guardians. Not only would they be gaining a member-going from what common agreement held to be three to four-but the camp would be losing one at the same time. In addition, the number of camp members who would need to survive to defeat the Guardians would increase by one as well. Thus, simply by switching sides in the night, the foes who dwelt in the shadow of noonday would be given the same advantage that the deaths of three innocents would have given them.
From here, however, it grew only more grim. A voting bloc of four in a camp of twelve was not something that could be ignored. One the one hand, the extra member would allow the same effectiveness in voting, while allowing the group as a whole to camouflage their patterns better; on the other, comprising a third, rather than a fourth, of the camp would mean only two innocent votes were needed to kill a camp member, rather than three-the assassins could comprise the majority of a vote to convict. Just as disturbingly, four Guardians could nominate four innocents-a full slate, giving a virtual certainty of an innocent's death. The Guardians, if quick enough, would be assured of victory; even if the camp caught on to these tactics and resolutely voted against lynching any citizen suggested by the overtly-operating Guardians, an assasination in the night would still happen...before another rigged voting session.
Most terrifying of all, however, was the knowledge possessed by the turncoat from his or her investigations. The cultists operated in the dark; the Veteran could give his or her life to take one of theirs, the Doctor foil one of their strikes, the Whore block the Doctor... If the cultists knew who to kill, who to preserve, and who to lynch, however, any advantage the camp had in virtue of the talents of its members would be lost. The turncoat had every reason to defect, for once he or she did, the camp was almost certainly doomed.
Lieutenant Madoc certainly hoped there was a flaw in his reasoning. Otherwise, hope seemed foolish indeed. Granted, if one of the Guardians was among the four nominated for lynching-and, by nominating a third part of the camp, it seemed probable that one of the three cultists had been fingered-the spectre of the enemy nominating a full slate of innocents could never come to pass. Still, Owain hoped he was in error somehow. He had no idea how to find this turncoat, especially if Eli were a Mason. True enough, Haji (peace be upon his spirit) was more than just a Mason-but Owain thought it unlikely that a member of a benign brotherhood could betray his Masonic oaths to join an altogether darker one.
He hoped he was right.
"So Rose, did I forget anything?"
"As a matter of fact you did, sir-about three buttons, your rifle, and your left boot."
Lieutenant Madoc's jaw dropped, then he rushed out of the teatent.
"Back in my day, dearie," said Miss Smudgeson, "it was only their uniforms that were that color."
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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.
Posts: 6849 | From: The People's Republic of Balcones | Registered: Jan 2006
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Banner Lady
Ship's Ensign
# 10505
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Posted
" Dear Madeleine,
Well, it seems that not content with leading the push to lynch an innocent citizen (poor Professor McBride), Eli Abrahams now wants to lynch another innocent citizen in me. I do not know whether I will survive the next 24 hours, but I fear that this man could not lie straight in bed. He will go wherever he thinks it most lucrative; and I strongly suspect that he is a defector as well as a mason, IF you can trust anything he says. And I simply don't.
However I do fear for those left, for if I am sacrificed then the Guardians will have taken three innocent lives, and surely will commandeer the site and all that it contains.
Should any foul thing happen to me, please know that you, my dearest, will be the sole beneficiary of all I possess. I will always remember our times together as
the happiest of my life. Pray for me, for I am in need.
Y____rs etc,
L____y Bernardine H_____-C_______ y.
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Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.
Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
I strongly suspect that he is a defector as well as a mason,
Arsène originally had thought that such cumulative identities were not possible but Haji's being miller and mason proved otherwise.
Eli's new reasonings for lynchings are unconvincing.
But killing a certified mason on the pure suspicion of double identity as defector?
Arsène makes his way to the worship tent and appeals to the Divine Cat for a rule clarification. A combination of miller and mason is one thing but a combination of mason (defined as innocent) and defector (defined as either innocent or guilty) seems somewhat self-contradictory. The other mason(s) could not fully i.e. always be assured of their comrade's innocence, rendering the notion of masonic lodges meaningless.
So: Do the rules even allow such a combination of mason and defector?
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Gentlemen and Lady,
If I were a Masonic defector, at this point I'd play for the Camp for a clear win.
I would know for certain that three people are innocent (myself, Smudgeson, and whoever I'd investigated on the first night). I think I can clear Tavish as well. I would know whether the person I'd investigated last night were innocent or guilty. Say, five known or likely innocents. If the rest of you manage not to murder anyone I can vouch for, then the cultists can kill at most one of my team per night. If the doctor keeps doing his job, it won't be me. And each night, I either clear someone else or expose a cultist. As long as I'm exposing cultists, we're happy. As soon as I clear another innocent, we're ecstatic, because then we're the majority, and we can't fail.
Essentially, I'd be a detective who can't be fooled by the miller (not being a real cultist the miller gives me no option to join them) or the defector (because it would be me) and who starts with two 'free' checks on innocents. Madoc is quite right that, if I were to switch sides, the odds are still good that I could win it for the cultists, but I'll take 'certain' over 'probable' any day.
Unfortunately, and to my lasting regret, I'm not a defector. None of you need worry about the possibility, though, because if I were I'd still be on the right side.
It should be worth noting, of course, that if someone else is the defector, and they haven't switched yet, they could still do exactly what I've said that I would do in their shoes, and (depending on who precisely they've checked out and whether the known innocents are still alive) either present us with a victory now or the certain prospect of one very soon. As soon as they can say for sure that any two of Dai, Arsene, Papagena, Andrew, Rose, Seth, Madoc or Bernardine are innocent, plus themseles, of course, we have this tent well and truly pegged. If they can clear even one other person, we would have to work very hard indeed to lose.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Smudgie:
Thinking about it, she realised that he also had most to gain from his father's death
Madame, have you no decency?
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Would it be too much to ask for those of you who haven't said much to let us have your thoughts about the situation?
I'm pretty certain about what we should do in the next day or so. But that (unless we are lucky enough to have a loyalist 'defector' - which I'm not about to bank my savings on) won't get us home. We will get some of the cult, but very likely not all.
We then need to find the remaining murderers. We can't count on there being a veteren to do the job, and it would be nice to close the account sooner rather than later. That means that we need to hear from everyone - especially those who voted for McBride first time around - with their absolutely best analysis of who they think is guilty and why. It's from that that we will be able to spot the killers.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
I voted for McBride first round because (a) I was sure I wasn't a Guardian (so wasn't going to vote for myself) and (b) I felt that we gained more information by trying for a lynching than by voting "no lynching." I nominated him on the basis that he hadn't said anything yet, and that it might be possible to find the Guardians among those especially quiet people.
I voted for him again second round following Eliab's theory that by having a second round of voting including him, we would find out more information than if we tried to lynch a new random person.
What we found out is that Lady B looks suspicious by her refusal to believe that Eli Abrahams is a Mason, to the point of voting to lynch him last round, and nominating him on this round. On the other hand, the innocent citizen Professor McBride also didn't believe that Eli Abrahams is a Mason, so disbelief of the obvious doesn't seem to be limited to Guardians.
[ 01. November 2010, 21:23: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
The problem with Eli is that he used what seemed as faulty logic at the time and we got to suffer because of this.
First, he incriminates Haji and Tavish only to exonerate them in the next sentence, which looks bloody suspicious. Why explain why they look guilty, only to say they aren't guilty?
And now Haji is dead, we find out that he was a mason, but he died before he could confirm Eli's claims that he is a mason too, or before we could find out whether Tavish is a mason too.
Eli could have been just unlucky, in his insistence that we lynch the professor, or he could have been plotting, being either a member of the mob or a mason that defected to the mob.
However, the way things evolved, we can read Eli's statement again, and see that he has been meaning to let us know who the masons are all along.
quote:
My observation is this. When Haji and Tavish voted, McBride had six votes. Rose was already safe, so it was him or no one. Voting for him was inconspicuous - there would be nothing suspicious in following a lead of six others, most of whom would be innocent. So if Haji or Tavish were cultists, and McBride not, they'd have sunk him. Or tried to. Much much better for them to see him dead than risk a vigilante taking a shot in the dark.
So it seems to be that if we lynch McBride AND he's guilty, we will have done well.
But if we lynch him and he's innocent, what we get in exchange for him is a pretty good indication that Haji and Tavish are innocent too, and (less certainly, but worth thinking about) we get a good lead on where the guilty ‘no lynchers' are. We slice the pool from seven to four. That's worth doing. It's a good deal. It's certainly better than any other random guess.
Essentially, he suggested we lynch an innocent person in order to learn that Tavish, Haji and himself are innocent. He sacrificed one possible innocent for three definitively innocents. And it would have worked, had the mob not murdered Haji.
So, I don't think we have time to make second thoughts about Eli or Tavish. They are masons. Period. We should proceed from here.
[ 01. November 2010, 21:39: Message edited by: El Greco ]
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
Dai thought about Eli Abrahams' request. He had been wrong about the reasons for people's behaviour often enough in the past to think that his suspicions were unlikely to be worth much.
For what they were worth, he agreed that both young Whiskers and Lady Bernadine were behaving suspiciously. Also Papagena the cat was keeping very quiet. But Dai hadn't lost his marbles to the point of suspecting a cat of bumping people off. People might say he was crazed but he knew better than that.
On a strategic level Dai thought that the strategy of isolating a group of people likely to contain one or more Guardians was sound.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Andrew has hold of the wrong end of the stick but is at least pointing it in vaguely the right direction.
Tavish isn't a mason. He's innocent (I think) because I can't easily see a cultist in his position voting as he did. That's what we got as compensation for guessing at McBride.
It wasn't really a ‘sacrifice'. We had to guess at someone. We might have been right or wrong. The point was that whereas all correct guesses were about equal, all incorrect guesses were not. An incorrect guess about McBride told us more than an incorrect guess about anyone else. That's why it was the right decision.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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CuppaT
Shipmate
# 10523
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Posted
Papagena speaks when she has a question or knows what to say. Otherwise, she keeps quiet and is suspicious of nearly everyone. The desert was never a friendly place.
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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony
Posts: 919 | From: the edge of the Ozarks | Registered: Oct 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Arsène finds Eli's far-reaching conclusions from people's voting behaviour on a single occasion unconvincing. Tavish is not cleared at all, we simply don't know.
A Guardian called upon on day 1 to cast a late, hence (near-)decisive vote to lynch or not lynch is faced with two equally good options: he can a) lynch or b) look innocent. He has no particularly strong reason to go for a). It is not very important for the Guardians to lynch on the first day, Far more important to build a reputation of harmlessness, e.g. examples of innocent behaviour in order to quote them later. Not necessarily to quote them oneself, mind.
Any Guardian makes reflections along the lines of "what will it look like if I behave in this way" that lead to a "what will they think that I think that they think" spiral, since of course all guardians either do what is advantageous for murder or the opposite of it, for the benefit of disguise.
Clever players could even revert to tossing a coin or die in order to guarantee themselves a humanly impossible random element in their voting pattern in such a situation.
Especially with the detective gone the only way to get Guardians to behave revealingly is when one of them is suspected or accused. Hence it must be better to accuse different people rather than completely clearing any of them so early in the game on the grounds of speculation.
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Gentlemen and Lady,
If I were a Masonic defector, at this point I'd play for the Camp for a clear win.
Really? Not for a second does Arsène believe you're that boring!
Even if the odds where better for the camp (as you claim on the basis of shaky mathsematical constructions). The fun of playing Guardian is superior to the alternative and increased by having defected. It would allow one to switch sides and see with just how much deception one can get away with.
And joining this expedition is about fun even more than about winning, innit?
Of course if Eli could be mason and defector, so could Miss Smudgeson... whom I supected earlier.
The problem with nominating either of them is that we know already for sure that they're masons and there is only a 1 in [how many players are actually still alive?] chance of either of them being the defector as well (plus the rules are unclear whether this is even possible). That is just guesswork.
If they turn out to be just masons we have not gained any additional information.
It is no good lynching a certified mason. Our leaving them alone is the only benefit we have from their existence.
And if there is indeed a combined mason-defector (and other combined roles) in the camp we'll have to accept this as tough luck. For it would mean we are thrown back to mostly guessing anyway.
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
I agree with Arsène. If Tavish isn't a Mason, I don't think we can clear him just because Eli says so. Eli's reasoning is far from being flawless.
And why on earth didn't Haji confirm Eli was a Mason before he died??? Haji, may the Great Ra puke your intestines! ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Especially with the detective gone the only way to get Guardians to behave revealingly is when one of them is suspected or accused. Hence it must be better to accuse different people rather than completely clearing any of them so early in the game on the grounds of speculation.
Drat. Now I'm questioning my agreement with Eli's nomination of McBride.
The depth of his reasoning has me suspecting Sylvander (along with Eliab and Smudgie) is an innocent citizen (though not a Mason like them).
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
And why on earth didn't Haji confirm Eli was a Mason before he died???
Perhaps because he felt it should be clear that falsely claiming to be a Mason is too high risk a strategy for a Guardian, and that letting the Guardians know that Haji was a Mason too would be giving them too much information, not worth the slight advantage of supporting Eli's statement publicly. (The slight advantage consists in winning over inveterate doubters like Lady B and McBride.)
Also Haji didn't know he was about to be murdered and that his own Masonic status would therefore be confirmed. If he hadn't been murdered, someone might be incorrectly arguing even now that actually Haji and Eli are both Guardians, colluding in a gamble that there are no real Masons to deny their false claims.
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
I meant in his death scene. Couldn't he have said he, eli and someone else were masons?
And why do you think Smudgie is innocent?
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Ξέρω εγώ κάτι που μπορούσε, Καίσαρ, να σας σώσει.
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Wet Kipper
Circus Runaway
# 1654
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Smudgie:
.... She was too shocked at the death of her fellow mason, Haji. With the Imam dead and herself and Eli Abrahams accused of his murder, the lodge was looking decidedly at risk,
Either she, Haji and Eli are the 3 masons which Eli and Haji "guessed" at there being (as Eli pointed out earlier) ,
or she and Eli are in this together, pretending to be masons, and none of the other masons are backing them up.
[ 02. November 2010, 14:51: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
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- insert randomly chosen, potentially Deep and Meaningful™ song lyrics here -
Posts: 9841 | From: further up the Hill | Registered: Nov 2001
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Gentlemen and Lady,
If I were a Masonic defector, at this point I'd play for the Camp for a clear win.
Really? Not for a second does Arsène believe you're that boring!
Even if the odds where better for the camp (as you claim on the basis of shaky mathsematical constructions). The fun of playing Guardian is superior to the alternative and increased by having defected. It would allow one to switch sides and see with just how much deception one can get away with.
And joining this expedition is about fun even more than about winning, innit?
I'm a religious man, M. Beauregard, and the Jewish faith certainly does not exclude the prospect of reincarnation.
If winning chances were the same or better, I would not defect, even if I could. A reputation for tactical thought and perceptiveness would serve me better in my next life than a reputation for outright duplicity.
Indeed, if I am not mistaken, something of that may be at work here. Quite possibly, in a previous existence, I did something terrible.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
I meant in his death scene. Couldn't he have said he, eli and someone else were masons?
No:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge, Amun-Rouge-Ra, Most Illustrious And Revered Red Cat Goddess, Ruler Of Our Fates, Guider Of Our Destinies, All Hail!:
Also no revealing of information in death scenes. If you are among the unlucky ones who don’t survive the duration, whatever you know will have to go with you to the grave, I’m afraid.
quote:
And why do you think Smudgie is innocent?
For the same reason I think Eliab is: because falsely claiming to be a Mason is too high risk a strategy for a Guardian, and too stupid a strategy for a Citizen.
I suppose somebody could be a Defector as well, but I'm not sure we have much defense against that.
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Come on. Guardians pretending to be masons would be suicide. Especially since we know there are real masons (as I said, the role would not make sense if there had only been the one). The real masons would already have made that public.
Btw. if Miss Smudgeson had the bad luck to be mason *and* defector (I'd venture to conject it is unlikely that this silly combination is allowed by the rules of our Inscrutable Divine Cat who, alas, is a silent non-oracle on this matter) we need not worry. I know her, Miss Smudgeson is a sweet-souled tea lady. If she had the bad luck of being a defector she'll die or give herself up from sheer terror.
Btw: This is a public message to the defector.
If you decide to stick with us - this being by definition the moment when you have discovered a Guardian (i.e. when you have to decide), by all means make the information public and let us lynch the rascal (is there also a feminine form of rascal? A rascaless perhaps) !
As I understand (or rather guess) it you are not another detective, i.e. after you found the first Guardian you lose the right to check one player per night. Hence make the information public asap! It may not even mean sacrificing yourself, since afterwards you are just an ordinary citizen and the Mafia have no special reason to go after you.
Should you by contrast NOT lose the right to investigate by night, we could check your accusation and then call on the doctor to protect you the following night.
All this of course only if you are not a scheming, devious, treachourous bit of a bad person who will defect just because defecting is more fun than winning. ![[Mad]](angryfire.gif)
Someone correct me if that piece of unrequested advice is not as obviously good as I think.
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Gentlemen and Lady,
Why ![[Confused]](confused.gif) If you are only talking to Lady Bernardine, why the "gentlemen"? If you mean to address us all, why only one "Lady"?
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
If you are only talking to Lady Bernardine, why the "gentlemen"? If you mean to address us all, why only one "Lady"?
Lt Madoc, yourself, Lady Bernardine.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Sylvander:
[qb] [QUOTE]Originally posted by Eliab:
[qb] Gentlemen and Lady,
A reputation for tactical thought and perceptiveness would serve me better in my next life than a reputation for outright duplicity.
Good heavens! You think about the next life already. I dearly hope reputations do not survive beyond the day.
I have a faint recollection that after my former lives here the reputation among the ladies is also not entirely up to scratch. I am very gracious they do not seem to translate that into lynchings.
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Come on. Guardians pretending to be masons would be suicide. Especially since we know there are real masons (as I said, the role would not make sense if there had only been the one). The real masons would already have made that public.
Could you tell who the real Masons are?
Let's say I make a public announcement that I am a Mason and Eli isn't. Eli might indeed be a mobster pretending to be a Mason, but it's also possible that I'm a mobster trying to get Eli lynched and win one round in favor of the mafia, especially if you were getting suspicious about my role...
Or the Masons could wait and let the Mobsters expose themselves, and then it might be easier for them to vote all together in order to have a mobster lynched. When we find out that he/she was a mobster, then the Masons could identify themselves and tell us who the other mobsters are.
I don't think it's very likely that Eli and Smudgie are mafia, but it's possible, and I'm unhappy by the way the lodge decided to handle this.
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Ξέρω εγώ κάτι που μπορούσε, Καίσαρ, να σας σώσει.
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