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Source: (consider it) Thread: Circus: Mafia - the Valley of the Kings
Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Of course if Eli could be mason and defector, so could Miss Smudgeson... whom I supected earlier.

I doubt that there's a mason-defector. It makes it pointless to have any masons if one of them could in fact turn guilty. A mason-miller is a combination that might have interesting results. A mason-defector isn't. I think we can rely on Eli and Miss Smudgeson not to go over to the other side.
Besides, if can't rely on them we have a much lower chance of winning than if we can. If you don't know which of two situations is more likely, you should proceed as if you're in the situation that gives you the better chance of winning. So, even if it weren't more likely that they're not defectors, we should proceed as if we're sure that they're not. Second-guessing isn't going to help us.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Eliab
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quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
Let's say I make a public announcement that I am a Mason and Eli isn't. Eli might indeed be a mobster pretending to be a Mason, but it's also possible that I'm a mobster trying to get Eli lynched and win one round in favor of the mafia, especially if you were getting suspicious about my role...

Everyone else decides who they believe (probably me, because Miss Smudgeson vouches for me, so it's two to one). The person not believed is lynched.

If he was lying, he was probably also guilty. We're happy. If he was telling the truth, we realise that we've made a terrible mistake and lynch the other. Who was lying, and therefore is probably guilty.

So if I'm lying about being a Mason, two people know it (Haji says there were three, less him is two). They also know that Smudgeson is lying. One of them speaks up - the worst that can happen is that we trade one innocent life for two cultists. A bargain for us. A bad deal for them.

It doesn't work in reverse. No cultist is going to stand up and claim to be a mason now, because the best they could hope for is to see off one innocent in exchange for one of theirs. More likely (because two voices prevail over one) they lose a cultist for nothing. A bargain for us. A bad deal for them.

So you can be sure that I'm a Mason. The only alternative to the view that I'm innocent is the fantasy that I might be a Masonic defector. I'm not, but you don't need to worry about it, because it is in my interests to be loyal anyway.

--------------------
"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

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Autenrieth Road

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In the case of competing claims to be a Mason, then the problem arises of figuring out who is telling the truth. For the lying Guardian, it only gives them a 50% chance of coming out of the resulting immediate fracas unlynched, plus if the innocent is lynched, then the Guardian will surely be lynched anyway on the next day. If bands of Masons and Guardians emerge from the woodwork supporting the competing claims, then it gives the Citizens a very likely win because we only have to lynch one of those claiming to be a Mason to discover which band is the Guardians.

In point of fact, we haven't had any competing claims to be Masons, which shows either that the real Masons are phenomenally stupid (which I doubt), or that Eli and Smudgie are themselves real Masons (which is what I believe).

[cross-posted with lots of people. That was in reply to Andrew "The Greek" Whisker.]

[ 02. November 2010, 16:14: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

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# 10509

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Looking at the list of nominess (Lady Bernardine (Banner Lady), Eli Abrahams (Eliab), and Andrew Whisker (El Greco)), what we should be debating is whether we should vote to lynch Lady B or young Whisker.

Lady B's vote against Eli and subsequent nomination of him, on the basis of doubting he was a Mason, looks suspect to me.

Whisker initially looked suspect to me, based on his doubting of Eli's Masonic claims, but now it seems just as likely that he hadn't fully thought through the foolishness of a Guardian claiming to be a Mason.

But maybe Lady B has been equally slow on the uptake on this point. McBride certainly was.

So put me in the highly undecided category at the moment, though leaning against Lady B.

[ 02. November 2010, 16:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]

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Truth

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El Greco
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# 9313

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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
[cross-posted with lots of people. That was in reply to Andrew "The Greek" Whisker.]

Egyptian! I'm Egyptian! EGYPTIAN!

See? Here's my family tree: My great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great -great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandfather was a worker in Pharaoh Paf's mines!

I'm as Egyptian as it goes! [Razz]

[ 02. November 2010, 16:47: Message edited by: El Greco ]

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Ξέρω εγώ κάτι που μπορούσε, Καίσαρ, να σας σώσει.

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El Greco
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# 9313

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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Looking at the list of nominess (Lady Bernardine (Banner Lady), Eli Abrahams (Eliab), and Andrew Whisker (El Greco)), what we should be debating is whether we should vote to lynch Lady B or young Whisker.

Well, I know I'm innocent. I also know that Lady B looks suspicious to me. I agree that it might be a good idea to leave out Eli. After all, he worked hard to publish all those pamphlets [Razz]

If only me and Lady B appear to you to be the only viable candidates, then a) either Lady B is also innocent, in which case we will be voting against an innocent, or b) Lady B is mafia, in which case the other mobsters might help her by voting and spilling bile against me, which will result in another innocent getting lynched without fully exposing a mobster. After all the mafia could make it appear as if Lady B is guilty so that the community lynch two innocents in two subsequent rounds!

I think it's prudent to have more candidates to choose from. And because I find Seth's (christian fletcher) silence suspicious, I nominate him. At least we won't have too narrow a selection of choices to choose from!

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Ξέρω εγώ κάτι που μπορούσε, Καίσαρ, να σας σώσει.

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Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
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Rose looked up in shock from her calculations. A Guardian must be found today! If another innocent were lynched, and the Guardians killed someone again tonight, the camp would be down to six people tomorrow. If three of those were Guardians, the innocents would not be able to muster the requisite majority to ever lynch a Guardian.

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Truth

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Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
# 10509

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Rose's shriek had brought the camp running. She looked down at her calculations again, and turned bright red. "Sorry, I was all wrong. We'll still have 9 alive in the camp tomorrow."

She ducked quickly back through the flap of her tent and drew her most dogeared textbook out from under her bed: Remedial Counting.

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Truth

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CuppaT
Shipmate
# 10523

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Rraaw. Would it not be 10 still alive, if one is lynched?

EG Andrew
CT Papagena
AA Lt. Madoc
D Dai
E Eli Abrams
FC Seth
WK Tavish
BL Lady Bernadine
AR Rose A
Sy Arsene
Sm Ms. Smudgeson

--------------------
Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony

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Autenrieth Road

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# 10509

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10 alive this evening after our daily round of lynching, but I assume the Guardians will succeed in killing an innocent tonight, leaving 9 alive for the next round of nominations and voting.

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Truth

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Sylvander
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I suggest we indicate our most urgent suspicions here. A sort of dry run for the real vote.
Why?
Since for technical reasons we have to vote in succession the guardians could, by voting early, steer us in one direction which might force the late voters to follow the trend rather than go by their conviction. It is vital that we lynch someone as the Guardians are unlikely to commit suicide.

Andrew Whisker's (El Greco) nomination of Seth could be just a means of saving his own skin - the more nominees the hihger the likelihood of a no-lynch vote. It could also make sense - silence looks suspicious, I agree. But McBride was nominated (partly) for being silent, too. Silence alone is not enough if we have better reasons for suspicion.

Let's go back to nominations. Eli took the trouble of counting votes on day 1.

quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Seven people voted not to lynch on the first day. McBride and Haji are dead, and innocent. McCallum (almost certainly) and Smudgeson (certainly) are also innocent. If (as I think likely) at least one cultist is amonst the remainder, we have Lady Bernardine, Papagena, and Arsène Beauregard as lead suspects.

I have not checked these voting patterns but I hope if Eli had presented the facts wrongly, someone would have noticed and said so (of course if we all are lazy like that ...)

Now, I agree that some mobsters will have voted "no-lynching", hence Eli's suggestion is sound. He reduces the list to three suspects - as I am one of them, the list for me is down to two, only one of whom is nominated (Lady B). What I do not follow is: why does Eli think that McCallum is "almost certainly not guilty". I missed the reason for that. Can you explain (repeat) please?

Assuming Eli can come up (repeat) the reason why he excluded McCallum from the list, I see two people:

Lady Bernardino and Papagena.

Of these two he nominates the Lady because of ... I'm not sure. Her aggressive defense?

As I said above, silence to me is more suspicious and Papagena is very silent indeed. It gives one no handle for analysis. So out of the two people Eli chose I nominate
Papagena. Hoping her silence has no other motives, like medical duties. But that cannot be helped.

I admit that too many nominees is risky for the camp. We kind of need to agree beforehand what we'll do.
I therefore will vote late but publicly declare my voting intentions.
I would not advocate a vote for Seth (unless I am too late to drive us in any other direction).
Reason: suspicion against him rests solely on his silence. My suspicion against Papagena rests on her silence AND the exclusion process Eli outlined above. That is one more reason than for Seth.

So my preferences are
1. Papagena
2. Lady Bernardino
3. Andrew Whisker (El Greco)

Reason for 3: I find his late nomination of someone not in the debate so far looks like it could be a strategy to split votes.

(Admittedly I now could be accused of the very same thing. But I hope that laying all my little thoughts out in the open as I do will somehow betray my innocence. The amount of my talking should assure that were I a Guardian at some point I make a mistake that is not attributable to stupidity or lazy reading. And unlike Eli the Jew Arsène is a good Huguenot who does not believe in reincarnation and thus has no thoughts about his reputation and the next life).

--------------------
A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

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Grrrrr. The Red cat goddess has been trying to open the vote for about the last 45 minutes and her internet connection is playing up…

Nominations closed; voting opens.

You may vote for:
  • Eli Abrahams (Eliab), nominated by Lady Bernadine (Banner Lady)
  • Lady Bernadine (Banner Lady), nominated by Eli Abrahams (Eliab)
  • Andrew (El Greco), nominated by Hyacinth Smudgeson (Smudgie)
  • Mr Seth (fletcher christian), nominated by Andrew (El Greco)
  • No lynching
  • ETA x-posted - since I'm feeling generous, Papagena, (CuppaT), nominated by Arsène Beauregard (Sylvander)

With 11 people still alive, 6 votes are required to secure a lynching.

Time for the oracle to go to bed [Biased]

[ 02. November 2010, 22:51: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]

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Rent my holiday home in the South of France

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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894

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Lieutenant Madoc passed a note to the private outside his tent; ever since the incident with Rose in the tea tent, he'd been too ashamed to be seen in public.
" Oh Wise Red Cat Oracle, one of us, your humble supplicants, has been insufficiently clear in our nominations for the firing squad; M. Beauregard nominated Miss Smudgeson in an earlier speech."

--------------------
“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.

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CuppaT
Shipmate
# 10523

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Papagena figures she has probably been inspected early on, and found to be a lowly citizen worth ignoring for the time being. Bigger fish to catch, so to speak. But she has her suspicions about the guilty ones. As to silence, that is not the case; she has spoken fairly often. Just because one does not speak volumes, does not mean one is guilty.

--------------------
Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony

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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

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quote:
Originally posted by AristonAstuanax:
Lieutenant Madoc passed a note to the private outside his tent; ever since the incident with Rose in the tea tent, he'd been too ashamed to be seen in public.
" Oh Wise Red Cat Oracle, one of us, your humble supplicants, has been insufficiently clear in our nominations for the firing squad; M. Beauregard nominated Miss Smudgeson in an earlier speech."

Err no he didn't.

He thought about it but didn't actually make a formal nomination in the end.

Anyway, Papagena has offered her defence, so no more wrangling please. Please cast your votes without any more deliberations.

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Rent my holiday home in the South of France

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Seth woke early in the morning after a full week of camel trading at another market out of town. He was tired, had been neglectful of his other duties and now found himself in the firing line, accused by a mad wannabe priest who made little sense even at the best of times. Seth had as many thoughts as there were grains of sand at his feet. Like the sand, every time he thought he had a grasp on a good solid argument, it would all slip away through his fingers and leave him at square one.

Seth needed time to think <and to read over Eli notes....again>

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153

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No one wants to open the voting then?

quote:
  • Eli Abrahams (Eliab), nominated by Lady Bernardine (Banner Lady)
A confirmed innocent nominated by someone suspicious. So, no. Also, I'm hardly likely to vote for myself.

quote:
  • Lady Bernardine (Banner Lady), nominated by Eli Abrahams (Eliab)
  • One of my pool of suspects. Acting most suspiciously in accusing me even after it was obvous that I was a mason. Nominated by a known innocent. Probably the best choice.

    quote:
  • Andrew (El Greco), nominated by Hyacinth Smudgeson (Smudgie)
  • I change my mind about Andrew Whisker every time he opens his mouth. I think he's being deliberately obscure, and doing it well. There could be an innocent or a guilty motivation. His accuser is innocent. I'd be inclined to watch what he does and see how consistent that is with his words. I'm not confident enough to lynch him yet.

    quote:
  • Mr Seth (fletcher christian), nominated by Andrew (El Greco)
  • I can't see any real reason to suspect Seth (or to acquit him, for that matter). Seeing whether he's guilty might tell us something about his accuser, of course, but nothing conclusive. It's not a good enough bargain, in my view, given the other options.

    quote:
  • Papagena, (CuppaT), nominated by Arsène Beauregard (Sylvander)

  • I'm pretty suspicious of Papagena, I have to say. Guilt isn't the only reason for stealth, but it's a pretty good one. That said, I'm coming to the conclusion that her accuser, Arsène, might be the defector - he's too lazy even to count votes, but he's thought carefully about the details of the defector's abilities? Who's the one person who doesn't have a serious stake in who gets lynched in the first couple of days, but who definitely wants to know what the defector can do?

    Now if I'm right, and Arsène has already switched, he knows if Papagena is guilty or not. And in a vote like this one, if she is guilty he could nominate her for cover, or even with the intent of sacrificing her to prove his good faith with us. If he hasn't switched (or I'm wrong and he's a simple innocent) then he would nominate her regardless, because if either or both of Bernardine and Papagena are guilty, there's no reason to think that the last member of my suspect pool is too. So lynching Papagena wouldn't tell me much about Arsène.


    I can't see any good reason to vote for anyone other than Lady Bernardine.

    --------------------
    "Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

    Richard Dawkins

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    fletcher christian

    Mutinous Seadog
    # 13919

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    Seth had given it a bit of thought, and although he was still slightly uneasy, he felt there was still a good chance that Eli was actually telling the truth and that this whole thing wasn't an elaborate charade. He examined Eli's reasoning carefully, but felt there was still a definite risk; however, that risk was probably still worth taking even if it resulted in the death of an innocent, as their sacrificial death would still (hopefully) give us more information and still leave enough innocents to win the day.

    Knowing that it might be the blind leading the blind, Seth votes to lynch Lady B

    --------------------
    'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
    Staretz Silouan

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    CuppaT
    Shipmate
    # 10523

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    Papagena hangs around the camp to hear the defenses of the others before voting.

    --------------------
    Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
    ~Elder Sophrony

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    Autenrieth Road

    Shipmate
    # 10509

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    "Defense time is over," murmured Rose to the shy cat which seemed to be hanging around the camp a tiny bit more than usual, looking inscrutable as always.

    "I vote to lynch Lady Bernardine Haighton-Chatworthy, mostly because her strident accusations of A Nother seem completely baseless."

    --------------------
    Truth

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    Dafyd
    Shipmate
    # 5549

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    Time to stop dithering.
    I'm most suspicious of Whiskers, but I don't know that my suspicions are worth much.
    We at least know Lady Bernadine was nominated by an innocent.

    --------------------
    we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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    El Greco
    Shipmate
    # 9313

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    Lady B. it is.
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    Wet Kipper
    Circus Runaway
    # 1654

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    Tavish was tired, hot, and bored of all the toing and froing and people dying whom it seemed didn't deserve it.
    All he wanted to do was find something shiny which was worth a few bob, plus something for his mantlepiece at home, and then head off.
    He voted for Lady B as it seemed most everyone else wanted her gone. Okay, so she was a lady, but with all the menfolk who had been killed recently, perhaps it was time for some of that new-fangled "equality" nonsense to be applied.

    --------------------
    - insert randomly chosen, potentially Deep and Meaningful™ song lyrics here -

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    Ariston
    Insane Unicorn
    # 10894

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    Alright. Let's get this over with.
    I don't trust the kitty one bit. What are you up to at night, Papagena? I know it's nothing good--you are a cat, after all--but do you have murderous intentions? Well. You'll still get your scraps as protection bribes, but I'm keeping my pistol close by at night.
    Andrew. So erratic. First one thing, then another. I think you're hiding something, but what that is, I can't be sure. And thus, I can't be sure I want you gone.
    Eli . . . meh, you can stay, I guess. I'm still not convinced you can't be a potential turncoat, but I'm also not convinced that you'd defect on us even if you were. So you get to live.
    Seth? Yes, you're quiet. Perhaps too quiet. But, of course, you're not protesting too much when someone randomly accuses you; I can't see suspicion in your silence.
    This leaves Lady B. Silent in the face of argument and strategizing, speaking only to protest her unproven innocence . . . while some here are questionable, looking both innocent and potentially guilty, you seem to be the only party whose behavior fits with an accused Guardian. Thus, I bid you a not-so-fond farewell.

    --------------------
    “Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.

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    Sylvander
    Shipmate
    # 12857

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    At 5-1 it hardly matters any more, Arsène trusts the sixth vote will be forthcoming. Always slightly inclined to stubbornness this time round he wants to stick by his own nominee and votes for Papagena.

    He thinks that her delaying of her vote in order "to hear the defenses of the others" is very very weak. She must know by now that at this stage it is too late for defenses. All she wants to do is vote late without telling us why.

    [Code tweak, iF]

    [ 04. November 2010, 09:51: Message edited by: Imaginary Friend ]

    --------------------
    A martyr is someone living with a saint.
    2509

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    Sylvander
    Shipmate
    # 12857

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    Arsène meant Papagena. He is just too daft to use the preview button.
    He also sees that in the meantime it has indeed become irrelevant.

    --------------------
    A martyr is someone living with a saint.
    2509

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    CuppaT
    Shipmate
    # 10523

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    Well, I think it will have to be Lady Bernadine, then. Hope it is right.

    Papagena

    --------------------
    Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
    ~Elder Sophrony

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    Smudgie

    Ship's Barnacle
    # 2716

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    Well, we are at that point where the Smudgeson vote will have no effect on the outcome. (She was delayed from voting earlier due to a long camel-train ride to a distant camp to meet a young relative returning from his half-term holidays!)

    A vote which makes no difference. I still believe Andrew Whisker to be in cahoots with the Guardians, but subsequent events have made me even more convinced that my fellow Mason is right to suspect Lady B. So I will add my vote to the majority. Lady B, farewell.

    Right, anyone for a nice cup of tea?

    --------------------
    Miss you, Erin.

    Posts: 14382 | From: Under the duvet | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
    Wet Kipper
    Circus Runaway
    # 1654

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    quote:
    Originally posted by Sylvander:
    At 5-1 it hardly matters any more, Arsène trusts the sixth vote will be forthcoming. .

    thanks to (almost) simultaneous posting, there were 7 votes for Lady B by the time you voted.

    --------------------
    - insert randomly chosen, potentially Deep and Meaningful™ song lyrics here -

    Posts: 9841 | From: further up the Hill | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
    Banner Lady
    Ship's Ensign
    # 10505

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    "Dear Madeleine,
    By the time you get this, I will be no more. There is no doubt who is in charge of Camp Sarastro. Mr. Abrahams has
    taken over, and it is quite clear he has no interest in preserving innocent lives. He has even commandeered the services of some shadowy doctor for his sole personal protection, so he says. I fear the rest of the camp will soon be in the grip of such ancient evil forces, that all I can hope for now is a quick death. From now on, my dearest, I shall pray for you, from amongst the company of saints.
    With all my love,
    Lady Bernardine Haighton-Chatsworthy."

    --------------------
    Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.

    Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
    la vie en rouge
    Parisienne
    # 10688

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    The twist of Lady B's voting for herself wraps it up at

    Lady Bernadine (Banner Lady) 10 votes
    Papagena (CuppaT) 1 vote.

    Lady Bernadine is lynched. She was a citizen.

    Once she's posted a death scene, night will fall.

    --------------------
    Rent my holiday home in the South of France

    Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
    Eliab
    Shipmate
    # 9153

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    quote:
    Originally posted by Eli Abrahams:
    3. Be alert. (Camp Sarastro, as your English humour charmingly puts it, has a requirement for lerts)

    We’ll spot the Cultists best when their interests diverge from ours. When they do something irrational, foolish and inexplicable on any hypothesis but guilt, we’ll have them. Of course, this presupposes that it isn’t just a simple innocent being thoughtless. So don’t be thoughtless. Consider your actions carefully, Otherwise, you’ll get lynched for making a silly mistake, and it’ll be your own fault, but that won’t make the rest of us feel a great deal better.

    Only 55 piastre for that advice, and it would have saved her. What on earth was she thinking of, nominating a confirmed Mason?

    Still, it cuts the likely pool of suspects to Papagena and Arsène - are you going to admit to being the defector, M. Beauregard?

    For what it's worth (just in case I don't survive the night), Lt Madoc seems to me to be worth watching since Lady Bernardine was innocent. It was him who dropped the hint about the defector that made her press her accusation against me. Now that would have meant nothing if she had turned out to be guilty (because the Cultists can doubtless communicate by secret signs and private channels, so no Cultist needs to hint anything to another) but as she was innocent, it could be a clue. Not a compelling case, but worth noting.

    --------------------
    "Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

    Richard Dawkins

    Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
    Wet Kipper
    Circus Runaway
    # 1654

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    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    (just in case I don't survive the night

    well, given that you have a good track record of nominating innocent people who then go on to be lynched, I'd say you're doing such a good job for the Cultists they'll probably let you live.

    --------------------
    - insert randomly chosen, potentially Deep and Meaningful™ song lyrics here -

    Posts: 9841 | From: further up the Hill | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
    CuppaT
    Shipmate
    # 10523

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    And what about the wacky Andrew? He's the one that ought to be top on the list. Anyone want to stop listening to Eli? Sorry BL/LB.

    --------------------
    Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
    ~Elder Sophrony

    Posts: 919 | From: the edge of the Ozarks | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
    fletcher christian

    Mutinous Seadog
    # 13919

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    Seth was no longer sure Eli was who he said he was

    --------------------
    'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
    Staretz Silouan

    Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
    fletcher christian

    Mutinous Seadog
    # 13919

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    a post out of character......
    <can someone point out where on this thread smudgie has said her character is also a mason? I might be missing it, but I've scrolled through and can't find anything to indicate that>

    --------------------
    'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
    Staretz Silouan

    Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
    Eliab
    Shipmate
    # 9153

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    quote:
    Originally posted by fletcher christian:
    Seth was no longer sure Eli was who he said he was

    Then you aren't thinking carefully enough. The innocent need to think carefully and act in their own best interests for the guilty to stand out. That was Lady Bernardine's mistake - acting in a way which made no sense at all.
    quote:
    can someone point out where on this thread smudgie has said her character is also a mason?
    Here.

    --------------------
    "Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

    Richard Dawkins

    Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
    Banner Lady
    Ship's Ensign
    # 10505

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    Lady Bernardine lay on her cot in the hot afternoon, drifting in and out of anxious sleep. The camp had become a hostile place, and her hand often strayed to the comfort of the pistol under her pillow.

    She was dreaming a terrible dream: that she was being forced to belly dance in a seedy opium den while leering faces made cruel jibes and hands pawed at her flimsy costume.

    She woke to find hands WERE pulling at her body, and tried to employ her pistol in defence. But it was snatched from her hand and she was swiftly knocked unconscious by it. Her large limp body was dragged from the tent and quickly strung up next to the flyblown remains of Professor McBride.

    Death was quick, but by the end of the afternoon the carcass of Lady B seemed to have doubled in size with the heat. The seams of her suit and underpinnings began to give way; and as dusk fell, a few last letters fluttered from her bosom to be carried away through the desert by the evening breeze.

    And had anyone with eyes keen enough to notice been watching, they would have seen a beetle drop from her skirts in the last light of day. Flexing it's beautiful iridescent wings, it scuttled off through the sand towards the tombs, buzzing as it went.

    --------------------
    Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.

    Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
    la vie en rouge
    Parisienne
    # 10688

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    Night falls.

    Please PM me with your night actions now.

    --------------------
    Rent my holiday home in the South of France

    Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
    fletcher christian

    Mutinous Seadog
    # 13919

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    Seth thanked Eli for his kind advice. Clearly, clear thinking and careful reading was required. It was all getting a little fraught, but he felt he was now following the arguments more clearly. He settled down into his tent to set his mind at rest and his body too, hoping he would wake to see the dawn.

    --------------------
    'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
    Staretz Silouan

    Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
    El Greco
    Shipmate
    # 9313

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    Andrew was being restless on his bed. How could so many innocent people look guilty? And how could the killers look innocent? This was quite a puzzle.

    And then it occurred to him that it has to be demigod Wath's work. He is notorious for putting masks on people and altering the way they are perceived by others. The dark forces are at work here. Gods save us!

    Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
    la vie en rouge
    Parisienne
    # 10688

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    Ahem. Go to sleep please people.

    --------------------
    Rent my holiday home in the South of France

    Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
    Wet Kipper
    Circus Runaway
    # 1654

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    Tavish couldn't sleep. He couldn't work out if it was greed or guilt that kept him awake, and led him to the entrance of the excavations.
    By the light of a flickering torch , he dug and dug, pent up frustrations at having to watch other innocent people being killed off by angry mobs and shadowy figures fuelling his crazed digging.
    His fingers grasped something hard. Hard and shiny.
    He pulled it free from the sand, some sort of cup or goblet, and lifted it up to get a better look in the torchlight.
    His eye caught the sparkle of a jewelled beetle and the reflection of a flicker of the torch. Or had it been a shadow passing in front of the light?
    he turned, and was met with nothing.
    nothing.
    nothing.
    but darkness.

    --------------------
    - insert randomly chosen, potentially Deep and Meaningful™ song lyrics here -

    Posts: 9841 | From: further up the Hill | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
    la vie en rouge
    Parisienne
    # 10688

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    Tavish McCallum (Wet Kipper) has been murdered. He was a citizen.

    Nominations/defence are now open (probably until Tuesday evening).

    A quick reminder of who's still alive:

    Andrew (El Greco)
    Eli Abrahams (Eliab)
    Papagena (CuppaT)
    Lt Madoc (AristonAstuanax)
    Dai Mortal (Dafyd)
    Mr Seth (fletcher christian)
    Rose Autenrieth(Autenrieth Road)
    Arsène Beauregard(Sylvander)
    Hyacinth Smudgeson(Smudgie)

    (9 players)

    --------------------
    Rent my holiday home in the South of France

    Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
    El Greco
    Shipmate
    # 9313

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    Why Tavish?

    Because he was a known innocent. That way, they could play on the uncertainty, and use it against the rest of us innocent citizens. By dividing and conquering, the mafia wants to turn us against each other.

    The way I read it, they want to get either me (a known innocent to me) or Eli (a known innocent to the masons) lynched, so that they can overcome us and take over the city, the sand, and the glittering yellow substance that has been cursed 7000 years ago.

    I bet you didn't know about the curse, did you? That's right, it says so on this piece of rock. See the hieroglyphics? "Whoever gets this gold will be thrice cursed, and their colon will violently descend through their rectum."

    It's all here.

    So, the ignorant and uneducated members of the mafia want to destroy us all only to get to their own destruction.

    But we must act before we let them destroy us. Although, I must say, that at this point having them reap what they sowed is very tempting.

    My list of suspects contains Rose, Papagena and Seth. I think there are at least two mobsters in there. I only hope we will be lucky this time, because our time, and the time of this beautiful, and boiling place, is running up!

    Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
    Sylvander
    Shipmate
    # 12857

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    Arsène pondered the camp's bad luck. Another dead - the guardians never seem to strike at whoever the doctor (if there is one) protects.
    And to boot everybody in terms of lynchings seems to be following the lead of one talkative fool over another even more talkative one. Maybe this time round they'll follow the second one?

    Eli, you have proven an uncanny ability to nominate innocent people and talking everybody into lynching them. Not entirely your fault I admit, it is bound to happen and it is better than inaction.
    But you are about to do it again, by suspecting me. Twice I pointed out that I found your reasoning unconvincing (and others independently made the same observation). This time your argument is utter nonsense. Let me explain why. (Of course my certitude is helped by the fact that I know it is not just illogical but also wrong – the two are not synonymous, after all by sheer luck you might one day make an unconvincing case against a culprit).
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    That said, I'm coming to the conclusion that […] Arsène might be the defector - he's too lazy even to count votes, but he's thought carefully about the details of the defector's abilities? Who's the one person who doesn't have a serious stake in who gets lynched in the first couple of days, but who definitely wants to know what the defector can do?

    Yep, I am lazy re counting of votes and stuff, at least as long as others are alive who will do it and others again who make tables of past behavioral patterns. That is why we are a team. Surely one does not get lynched for laziness [Biased]
    Let us assume I am the defector and were unclear about the rules (e.g. whether he retains his spying eye by night once he found a crook but decided to stick with the camp), why on earth would I ask in public?
    a) A public question might lead to an answer from the Gods. But a simple PM to the Divine Cat would surely give me one - after all she may like being foggy in public, but a player needs to have clarity about his role.
    b) A public answer would give everybody incl. Guardians the knowledge whereas it would be much more advantageous for the defector to have it to himself. So long as he hasn’t decided which side he is on he is not going to be very team-oriented, is he?
    So: I cannot see any reason why the defector would ask rule clarifications in public. This is so obvious that I am sure you have thought of it, too. I am led conclude that you consciously made a claim that does not add up.
    Let me look at your other arguments.
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    Now if I'm right, and Arsène has already switched, he knows if Papagena is guilty or not. And in a vote like this one, if she is guilty he could nominate her for cover, or even with the intent of sacrificing her to prove his good faith with us.

    Nominating someone for cover is possible but very risky. And it only works once the player in question is lynched. It would be utter nonsense for the baddies to sacrifice a Guardian at this stage if the player in question has so far hardly come into the limelight of suspicion at all. I would not advocate suicide as a winning strategy (oops, did I give away something important to the Guardians here?).

    You really sound like a prosecutor for whom the witch is proven innocent if she drowns in the water and guilty if she floats. What you effectively say is: If player A nominates player B, irrespective of whether B turns out to be innocent or guilty player A can be guilty and should be lynched.
    A Guardian would talk like that.
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    If he hasn't switched (or I'm wrong and he's a simple innocent) then he would nominate her regardless, because if either or both of Bernardine and Papagena are guilty, there's no reason to think that the last member of my suspect pool is too.

    If I remember correctly you made a list of no-lynching voters on day one and reduced it to a group of three suspects, me included. That makes and made sense to me, but do not forget that I voted by proxy before anything was discussed – I was in a feverish state in my tent, full of dreams of running about IRL. Do not overstretch conclusions from this no-lynching vote (but then we all guess on day one).
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    So lynching Papagena wouldn't tell me much about Arsène.

    Uh? Your “logic” is weird [Eek!] I cannot follow it. Only if one follows your first unconvincing argument that I could nominate her for cover or even as a sacrifice would lynnching her not tell you much. As just explained I do not think such action would be good strategy for the Guardians.

    Summing up: Eli makes more unconvincing claims and suggestions. These are dangerous for the camp. Should I nominate him for lynching? Yep, I could guess he does so for sinister motives, i.e. he is a) Guardian or b) defector. But

    a) Presupposes that he and Smudgeson both impersonate a mason AND the real masons shut up about it. Unthinkable.

    b) Presupposes

    b 1: that there is a defector – which we don’t know, and

    b 2: That mason and defector can go together. As I said before this would be a silly design. I therefore stick by my decision to discard the notion.

    So I think Eli is not guilty, only illogical. Do not assume a conspiracy where simple human mistakes suffice to explain (I think Churchill said this more elegantly). And of course he suggested early on that Tavish (Wet Kipper) was innocent, so he got that one right.

    Who might be guilty then?
    Does Tavish’s death tell us something? He spoke little and I can’t see much info in it (others might read more carefully). We know that his brain hurt, he was after the lassies and did not have a Scottish accent.
    With nothing new emerging I repeat that I am suspicious of Papagena. For the same reasons I gave before.
    Unfortunately Eli suspects or suspected her, too, which makes her look a bit more innocent again.

    --------------------
    A martyr is someone living with a saint.
    2509

    Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007  |  IP: Logged
    Smudgie

    Ship's Barnacle
    # 2716

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    Miss Smudgeson curses herself for having disregarded her own gut instincts (surely a woman of her standing should not admit to having such things) and followed the trend in voting for Lady B, though she had to admit that the poor old lady who suffered such an undignified death had indeed acted extremely suspiciously. Still, one should not condemn someone purely because their brain was addled. No, she should have stuck with her instinct and voted for Andrew Whisker. She had her suspicions about several of the camp - one other in particular - but knowing two people to be innocent did help her deliberations considerably.

    --------------------
    Miss you, Erin.

    Posts: 14382 | From: Under the duvet | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
    El Greco
    Shipmate
    # 9313

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    quote:
    Originally posted by Smudgie:
    She had her suspicions about several of the camp - one other in particular - but knowing two people to be innocent did help her deliberations considerably.

    Care to share those suspicions with the rest of us? This will be especially useful if you manage to murder yet another innocent. i.e. me.
    Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
    Autenrieth Road

    Shipmate
    # 10509

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    quote:
    Originally posted by El Greco:


    My list of suspects contains Rose, Papagena and Seth. I think there are at least two mobsters in there.

    Why me? Why Seth? Why do you think at least two of us three are Guardians? I agree that Papagena by her quietness is suspicious.

    --------------------
    Truth

    Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
    El Greco
    Shipmate
    # 9313

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    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    Why me? Why Seth? Why do you think at least two of us three are Guardians? I agree that Papagena by her quietness is suspicious.

    That's what the Oracle said. R, S, P. But I didn't hear well one letter, so I got at least two right.

    What, you don't like my reason for thinking you are suspicious? Well, it's as good a reason as any other. Being a member of the mafia is not an issue of logic and argumentation. If you think it is, just take a look at all those innocent we lynched, thinking we were following reasonable arguments against them.

    The arguments that have been made, or the ones that can be made, for that matter, might all be plausible, but there is no logic behind them dictating they are actually true.

    In times of distress, such as these, you might choose to follow words that sound nice to the ear, but lack the irrefutable logic that dictates what's true and what's not, but I choose to pay heed to the dreadful words of the Oracle. And She has spoken. R, S, and P, or something like that!

    [ 06. November 2010, 13:25: Message edited by: El Greco ]

    Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged



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