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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Circus: Mafia - the Valley of the Kings
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Arsène had been for a long run along the Rhi..., the Nile ![[Hot and Hormonal]](icon_redface.gif) . All the time an intriguing wee tune was running along in his otherwise empty head ...
Pa! Pa! Pa! Pa!
Pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-paaaaaaa!
Pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-paaaaaaa!
Pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pagena!!
When he was under the shower he let the tune flow from his head to his lips. The camp shuddered.
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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CuppaT
Shipmate
# 10523
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Posted
Y'all keep saying that I am quiet, but if you look, you will find that I speak just as much as most. Only a few campers talk more frequently than I, but many use a lot more words, i.e. longer posts. To be clueless is not a crime. To try to watch everyone, and get lost now and then as to where we are in the process, does not mean I am a murderous cat, merely a fairly simple minded citizen cat of the desert. I do agree that unless the Masons have lied about who they are, there is not much logic in this particular scenario, just blind unluck.
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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony
Posts: 919 | From: the edge of the Ozarks | Registered: Oct 2005
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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894
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Posted
It's like this, Cat. You may be raising a paw or cocking an ear, but saying that you're paying attention doesn't add to the discussion or aid us in catching our cultists; simply listening, though, is what any good infiltrator would do. If I were a Guardian, my first objective in discussion would be to gather as much information as possible about my enemy's plans, then, if at all possible, keep from aiding them with any useful suggestions. At no time should I give advice so bad it drew the ire of my fellows down on my head; were Eli not a Mason, I'm sure we would have lynched him by now, just to be rid of his bad advice!
Come to think of it, that may not be a bad idea. Why didn't I think of it earlier, when we didn't need him and his foolish tongue so badly for the sake of our survival?
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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.
Posts: 6849 | From: The People's Republic of Balcones | Registered: Jan 2006
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Some important points:
First - it wasn't a mistake to lynch Lady Bernardine. Or, rather, it wasn't our mistake. She had nominated a known innocent. Not merely someone who turned out to be innocent, but someone who was obviously innocent. If we weren't going to react to that, what would we react to?
The Name alone knows why she did it. She seemed pretty astute to me. But she did. She did something that only made sense if she was guilty, and we did exactly the right thing on the evidence. Unfortunately, her bad judgement has cost us a day and two lives.
Second, I was right about Tavish. Which means that my analysis of the first day's votes looks sound.
Third, if we have three cultists and a defector, then (unless we are lucky with a veteren or a doctor) we MUST get it right today.
My best guess at this point is Lt Madoc. Two reasons: he dropped a subtle hint to Lady Bernardine that encouraged her in her self destructive mistake, and he nominated Rose Autenrieth on the first day. Now that was a supposed to be a pure guess - but why, for a pure guess, would anyone smart (and Madoc is smart) pick Rose? If she's innocent (as, on the odds, she probably was for all we then knew), she's an asset, because she's a thinker. True, she's also very very hard to read, and the prospect of her being a cultist scares me a lot, but I'd take the chance of having her mind on our side rather than risk killing her off on spec.
I'd also bet (at good odds) a (modest) amount on Arsène being the defector, if there is one.
If there's one more space for the guilty, then it's a coin toss between Andrew Whisker and Papagena. Both have behaved oddly. Deliberately so. Which makes me think that they are trying for some reaction to achieve something. Thus they are either guilty, or (and this is the kicker) they are the doctor and trying to arouse just enough suspicion that the cultists leave them alone, but not so much as to be lynched.
Seth's my outside chance at the moment, if any of those are wrong.
So at this point I'd lynch Madoc. But I'm not going to risk splitting the vote. Whisker or Papagena would be better than no one. If anyone is inclined to share that suspicion, I'll nominate and vote, but not if it'll just put another name up and risk a hung vote.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Rose turned as pink as her name from Eli's unexpected praise.
I'm not inclined to suspect Lt. Madoc. Though my principle of not suspecting those who reason the most could be faulty. (However, I haven't really grappled with the possibility of a defector.)
I suspect Dai Mortal, as someone who has been flying under the radar (to coin a phrase about two as-yet-uninvented technologies). He's someone who by personality I would expect to be in there reasoning it out with the rest of us, but instead he's been quietly inconspicuous. I've suspected him from the first round.
Papagena I could imagine being by nature a watcher, and hence innocent, (but I could also imagine her as a Guardian taking us all in with her innocent "I've had nothing to say yet" act).
Andrew Whisker I think enjoys being erratic, which makes it very hard to decide if he's innocent or guilty!
Like Eli, I'd like to hear others' thoughts on my suspicions before making the plunge of a nomination.
[ 07. November 2010, 01:10: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
...Lt. Madoc. ... (However, I haven't really grappled with the possibility of a defector.)
Oops, it's Arsene whom Eliab suspects of being the defector, not Madoc.
FWIW, I don't find Madoc's nomination of me suspicious. I was the most recent person to have spoken when he made his day 1 nomination, so since the nominations were going to be pretty random, why not pick the first person to come to mind?
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I suspect Dai Mortal, as someone who has been flying under the radar. He's someone who by personality I would expect to be in there reasoning it out with the rest of us, but instead he's been quietly inconspicuous.
I think that's a complement of sorts.
My reasoning hasn't been up to much, and so I've been disinclined to share it with the rest of the group. Example: I deduced from the first round that Eli wasn't a mason - if he were a mason I thought he'd have nominated somebody. I then deduced that if Eli was a mason, the reason he didn't nominate someone must be that either Madoc or Rose was a mason. Wrong again. Given that I'm wrong about the way the masons behave, I'm not entirely confident in my reasoning about the guardians.
BTW - out of curiosity, Eli, why didn't you nominate someone in the first round?
In so far as my reasoning is worth anything I think our current course is as good as we're going to get.
We can group people into four groups:
Eli and Smudgeson: Known innocents.
O) Eli's reasoning is usually sound. I think the lesson to learn from lynching Lady Bernadine is that Eli is too likely to think people guilty if they've disagreed with him or accused him. But otherwise I'd rely on his brains.
A) Madoc and Rose: at most one of these is guilty.
For a guardian to nominate another guardian in the first round is foolish, especially given that there were only two nominations and it could easily have resulted in a guardian being knocked out early on.
B) Seth, Whiskers (and Dai): any or all or none of us could be guardians. Whiskers is a bit of a special case. I'm suspicious of him, but I don't know what to make of that.
C) Papagena and Beauregarde: it's almost certain(*) that at least one of these is a mason and possibly both. We'd already announced our intention to investigate group C when Beauregarde accused Papagena. One of them would almost certainly be lynched anyway; under those circumstances it would be worth trying the take-out nomination.
So our chance of getting a mason by voting for Papagena or Beauregarde is better than 1/2. (11/17 to be precise.)
I certainly wouldn't lynch Madoc or Rose at this point - the chance of each individually being a guardian in group A is less than 1/2. (Actually, 7/17.)
Health warning: if I can't predict what someone as talkative as Eli will do as a mason, my reasoning about what someone quieter will do as a guardians may not be up to much.
(*) Reasons: the guardians would probably have split their vote to avoid appearing as a block. It's slightly more likely that an odd one out would vote late - and we know neither Haji nor Tavish were guardians, so we didn't have two votes for lynching and then one for no lynching. Also, the guardians killed someone who voted for lynching in the first round. Therefore, when they did so they weren't keeping people who'd voted the same way as them around as cover. And so at least one and possibly two must have voted differently from Herrick.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
So our chance of getting a mason by voting for Papagena or Beauregarde is better than 1/2. (11/17 to be precise.)
I certainly wouldn't lynch Madoc or Rose at this point - the chance of each individually being a guardian in group A is less than 1/2. (Actually, 7/17.)
Just realised: these numbers should be 14/23 and 7/23.
[ 07. November 2010, 09:29: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
In your group C, surely you meant "guardian" and not "mason"?
How did you come up with your numerical probabilities?
[ 07. November 2010, 11:37: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
First - it wasn't a mistake to lynch Lady Bernardine. She had nominated a known innocent. Not merely someone who turned out to be innocent, but someone who was obviously innocent. If we weren't going to react to that, what would we react to?
Nonsense.
Nominating a known innocent is such silly thing to do that it is inconceivable a group of Guardians would come up with the idea. Much more likely that an individual was not paying attention or thinking in roundabout ways.
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Some important points:
Second, I was right about Tavish. Which means that my analysis of the first day's votes looks sound.
Seems to me deducing a lot from the one occasion he got it right (as opposed to the many more where he got it wrong) - at a point when most of our assumptions were guesses.
Last time round Eli suspected Papagena as his number two - and now he puts forward yet another name. If it wasn't for the mason thingy I'd have nominated him three times over. With all the harm he has been inflicting we might have been better off lynching him even as a known mason.
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Rose turned as pink as her name from Eli's unexpected praise.
Good grief! Don't tell me you'll fall for that kind of flattery ![[Snore]](graemlins/snore.gif) . Check Eli's reasoning, not your image in the mirror, please!
But if it helps: you are stunningly beautiful, mind-boggingly intelligent and the greatest conversationist since the invention of the tongue ![[Smile]](smile.gif) You really are! Unfortunately this is all irrelevant in assessing the accusations on the table.
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
In your group C, surely you meant "guardian" and not "mason"?
oops, yes. I was possibly confusing the guardians with a criminal organisation based in the Mediterranean (Sicily) that also starts with 'ma'.
quote:
How did you come up with your numerical probabilities?
The number of possibilities in which there are:
i) Two guardians in C; one in B or A: 1*5= 5.
ii) One guardian in C; one in B, one in A: 2*3*2 = 12
iii) One in C; two in B: 2*3= 6
Total: 5 + 12 + 6 = 23.
Total possibilities in which any given member of C is a guardian: 5 from i) + 6 from ii) + 3 from iii) = 14 (out of 23).
Total in which any given member of A is a guardian: 1 + 6 + 0 = 7 (out of 23)
(And for completeness, total for any given member of B = 1 + 4 + 4 = 9.)
I hope that's enough detail to work out the rest?
The above calculations don't take into account my knowledge that I'm innocent, because I'm the only non-guardian that can be sure of that. For anyone who knows that they're innocent, it shifts the probabilities a little but not by a significant amount.
This all assumes that at least one guardian voted for no lynching in the first round, but I think we've good reason to believe that at least one guardian would have.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
oh yeah, thats clear as mud!
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
I nominate Seth. After all, his namesake is supposed to be evil incarnate.
[ 08. November 2010, 11:14: Message edited by: El Greco ]
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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CuppaT
Shipmate
# 10523
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Posted
Seth who? In the Bible Seth was a good little boy.
And after what's-his-name just said about not splitting the vote at this point, too! You make yourself all the more suspicious.
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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony
Posts: 919 | From: the edge of the Ozarks | Registered: Oct 2005
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
Bible? Bible? BIBLE??? This is children's stories compared to the True Religion. May the Gods instill the knowledge of sun in your minds, because we are all going to be doomed. The signs are gloomy.
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Papagena, that's an interesting comment, given that the vote that might be split would be the one that might lynch you. Is that the true mark of an innocent speaking? Could be.
I've been thinking this weekend that Seth is the one camp resident who truly hadn't appeared on my radar at all yet, which by my principles leads me to wonder if he is a Guardian, seeking to avoid notice.
[ 08. November 2010, 13:59: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
quote:
Seth who? In the Bible Seth was a good little boy.
Exactly.
My nominations record speaks for itself. I've trusted Eli (albeit cautiously), but he's certainly led us down a few dead ends of late (if you'll pardon the pun). I've tried to be fairly reasonable about my choices and I've even changed my mind on Hayacinth once it became clear to me that she was a mason; which pretty much proves I'm an innocent (I think).
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
A so-called *spit* Guardian *spit* could do the same to avoid suspicion while helping get innocent people lynched.
Behold! The ugly face of the beast!
[ 08. November 2010, 14:26: Message edited by: El Greco ]
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Ξέρω εγώ κάτι που μπορούσε, Καίσαρ, να σας σώσει.
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Granted there is a slight resemblance, but not such a tiny waist. But I am innocent. A man cannot be judged on the fact he is ugly!
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
Let me recap the reasons Eli gave to support our course so far, since some people seem to be confused about them.
We voted for McBride not because we thought that he was guilty, but because we thought we would learn something either way. We did learn that both Haji and McCallum were innocent. The guardians targeted them both - but that means that they didn't target the doctor and they've only targeted one of the three masons. We still know that there are two innocents. That's quite a strong advantage to have.
We voted for Lady Bernadine because she was in what I called group C earlier - a group that we have strong reason to believe has at least one guardian in it. It maybe that we ought to have gone for Beauregarde or Papagena rather than Bernadine on the evidence. I'm not sure. However, it makes it more likely that we'll catch a guardian this turn.
The question is then whether to go for Beauregarde or Papagena first. At the moment, only Papagena's been nominated, by Beauregarde himself. I'm not sure that we should be making the decision solely on the judgement of one of the targets. Does anyone else have an opinion as to which one seems more suspicious? I'd be particularly interested in Smudgeson's opinion; we know Smudgeson's not guilty and Beauregarde hasn't been criticising her.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
It is Beauregard, hear, not Beauregarde! ![[Mad]](angryfire.gif)
I refuse to be lynched under a false name!
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
OK, it's Bureaucrat, not Avant-garde. Noted. What do you mean I misheard again?
[ 08. November 2010, 15:46: Message edited by: El Greco ]
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Ξέρω εγώ κάτι που μπορούσε, Καίσαρ, να σας σώσει.
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
My sincere apologies to M. Beauregard.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
Andrew had another vision. He was in the Throne Room again, but this time it was empty. And suddenly a voice spoke from the Great Throne That Sparkles Every 7777 Years.
"Come to me..." the dreadful voice whispered.
"Come to me..."
[ 08. November 2010, 19:18: Message edited by: El Greco ]
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
It was not because of his flattery that Rose thought Beauregard to be a Citizen, but because of his reasoning.
I'm inclined to lynch Andrew Whisker. If he's guilty that will be good, plus it will suggest that Seth is innocent. If he's innocent then it will leave the way open to still suspect Seth on a later round.
(crossposted. Of course, if we lynch Whisker we may never find out what his vision of the throne room means.)
[ 08. November 2010, 19:26: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I'm inclined to lynch Andrew Whisker. If he's guilty that will be good, plus it will suggest that Seth is innocent. If he's innocent then it will leave the way open to still suspect Seth on a later round.
How naive of you to assume life will continue if you lynch the high-priest of the Great Ra. How naive... ![[Disappointed]](graemlins/disappointed.gif)
[ETA:] Last time a high priest of the Great One was brutally murdered by the people, Noah was finishing his arc. Just so that you know. It's in every serious textbook of egyptology...
[ 08. November 2010, 19:31: Message edited by: El Greco ]
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Ξέρω εγώ κάτι που μπορούσε, Καίσαρ, να σας σώσει.
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
It was not because of his flattery that Rose thought Beauregard to be a Citizen, but because of his reasoning.
Ah.
Aaaah! I like gals with a sense of humour.
May I take the opportunity to declare that when I said your beauty, intelligence and eloquence were irrelevant for assessing guilt, I ommitted to say that they were by no means wasted on one appreciative French soul ... ![[Overused]](graemlins/notworthy.gif)
Would Mademoiselle be free for a starlight walk in the dunes this evening? I think there are some behind the camp to this side. And that. And that. And that side, too, it would seem. You choose.
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
I think there are some behind the camp to this side. And that. And that. And that side, too, it would seem. You choose.
Hm.... Four sides... This sounds like a secret message.
Now, four sides isn't a masonic symbol. Could it be...? Hm... Yes. I'm sure I have a scroll that speaks about it somewhere. Now, where did I put it?
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Ξέρω εγώ κάτι που μπορούσε, Καίσαρ, να σας σώσει.
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894
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Posted
At this rate, it seems that everyone but Miss Smudgeson has been thought suspicious, if not quite worthy of the firing squad. Which brings up two questions:
1. Miss Smudgeson, I think you're up to something. You may not be in cahoots with evil, murdering, and generally despicable cultists, but I would like to know just what you put in your "special house blend" tea. I'd also like another pot of it, to share with Miss Rose, if you would please. Now that I'm quite awake and up to proper military spec, I think I might just be able to properly apologize to her for my untoward behavior earlier.
As a side note, proper apologies do not preclude the use of imprisonment against formerly tolerated enemies of His Majesty who bother young graduate students. There is supposedly a reason why the regiment is stationed here, beyond the simple inaction of my superior officers.
Really now. So many brave soldiers died in Flanders, but somehow you made it out alive?
2. Is anyone actually going to nominate anyone else, rather than simply casting aspersions? I see that Papagena, Andrew Whiskers and Mr. Seth have all been formally accused; that sounds like a perfectly sound slate to me. Any more, and we risk splitting the vote; any less, and we might end up with a slate without a cultist. At this point, my friends (and I address only you), we cannot afford another misstep, especially if there is a defector in our midst. If another innocent dies at our hands, it will only be luck or errors committed by the Guardians that might save us; right now, I am disinclined to hope that either might work out in our favor.
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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.
Posts: 6849 | From: The People's Republic of Balcones | Registered: Jan 2006
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Midday. Eli Abrahams sits in his tent, still thinking about Lady Bernadine. His lunch – a double helping of whatthefuck with whatthefuck sauce – grows cold as he twirls his fork distractedly. What perplexes the wily Jew is not being wrong. No one can make money in this country of intrigue by being afraid to make mistakes. What baffles and irritates is that he cannot see why it was wrong. What in the name of the Holy One of Israel was she thinking of? And why did no one see it?
Eli shakes his head sadly. Nine residents. Five must be innocent. Two of those are known. Are there three cultists or four? If three, then one mistake is affordable. But if there are four, then a wrong guess today would be fatal. Now is not the time to worry about outside chances. There is no point wondering if those people who look innocent have simply fooled him. If they have, then they win. Concentrate on those who look suspicious. Play the best chance. But which one?
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by AristonAstuanax:
At this point, my friends, we cannot afford another misstep, especially if there is a defector in our midst.
We can afford one. We can't afford two. (Unless there are four mafia members or three mafia members and a defector, but if that's the case we've barely got a hope anyway - so let's assume it isn't so.)
As much as Whiskers is acting suspiciously, I think he may well just be someone who acts suspiciously. I don't think going after Whiskers at this stage would be playing the odds. Nobody else seems to think that Beauregard is suspicious enough to nominate. I don't think Papagena's silence is great grounds for suspicion myself, but of the three nominees I think she's our best chance. And then if it's not her, then Beauregard.
Dai Mortal wandered off wondering whether he could really just have advocated something as medieval as lynching the cat.
OoC: I'm moving house from Thursday. There may be some time over the weekend when I don't have an internet connection. If I start being very quiet, that's why.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
At the moment, I know that Hyacinth and I are innocent, and I'm prepared to trust Dai and Rose. The last two on the basis that they have been more helpful and analytical than they need to be to remain inconspicuous, and I can find no inconsistency in their actions. One or other of them might have fooled me - if so, well done - but I think all of the remaining five are more likely to be guilty.
If, as I fear, four of those five are enemies, then we can't afford to split the innocent vote. I'd vote to lynch any but Seth at this point, rather than risk division.
I can see no one sharing my suspicions of Lt Madoc. So there's no point nominating him. But he needs very careful watching. He's acting just as I would expect him to if he were guilty.
Dai, if you suspect Arsène Beauregard, then I'd vote for him if Miss Smudgeson and Ms Autenrieth concur. Otherwise, Papagena, unless Whisker is the lead candidate. But we can't vote for him unless someone nominates him, so I will.
Anyone whose been nominated - make sure you put your case now. Don't surprise us once the voting has started. Even one wasted innocent vote might well doom us.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
People of the sand!
You should think deeply before you cast your vote.
Take a look at the history of Eli's speeches. Think about it. You will find out what you should do. Since he nominates Arsène Beauregard, the prudent thing to do is to say that Arsène is most definitely innocent. So, don't vote for him! And since Eli doesn't think I'm guilty, I must be a criminal mastermind. Based on Eli's record you'd better vote against me. I think that's the safest choice!
Either that, or Seth. Eli doesn't think Seth is suspicious. That's suspicious enough to me.
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
Nominations over, the polls are now open.
You may vote for:
- Andrew Whisker (El Greco), nominated by Hyacinth Smudgeson (Smudgie)
- Papagena (CuppaT), nominated by Arsène Beauregarde (Sylvander)
- Mr Seth (fletcher christian), nominated by Andrew Whisker (El Greco)
- Arsène Beauregarde (Sylvander), nominated by Eli Abrahams (Eliab)
- no lynching
Five votes are required for a lynching.
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Seth couldn't quite understand Whisker's frankly mad request. If he was innocent, then why was he asking people to vote to lynch him? That didn't make any sense; but then little Whisker's said made much sense of late! Why would someone who claimed to be an innocent put themselves in harms way at such an important juncture in the game? ![[Paranoid]](graemlins/paranoid.gif)
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
Well, if Eli's prepared to back me up, I'll vote for Arsene Beauregard. It's him or Papagena, and I like cats.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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CuppaT
Shipmate
# 10523
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Posted
Maroow. Happily complying, the black cat votes for the false priest Andrew.
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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony
Posts: 919 | From: the edge of the Ozarks | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Rose shakes sand out of her shoes, takes a sip of tea, and votes to lynch Andrew Whisker (El Greco).
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Oh, surprise, a very very late nomination by the one player who always advocates how important it is to get a lynching done!
Eli does not even try to pretend he can substantiate his suspicion of me and point at a single inconsistency in my reasonings. Simple, there are none. It is an easy game to play when you are innocent.
Ah well. Seeing the votes up to now it looks like Eli's simple see-through tactics might work - the vote will be split and no lynching will happen.
Papagena
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Right - Beauregard has just tried to split the vote. Assuming Papagena is guilty, if any two of Madoc, Seth and Andrew are guilty*, we can't get her. And if he believed his nonsense about me trying to hang the vote, he'd know that by voting for a new nominee, he'd just made it more likely that I'd succeed. His vote is plainly a destructive one.
That's good enough for me. I think Arsene is guilty.
The trouble is, if any two of Madoc, Seth or Andrew are guilty, they can save him. Neither Hyacinth or I should vote until they have done so.
Of course, that probably means Andrew is guilty, too, because Arsene's actions do make sense as an attempt to shield him.
So Andrew should vote first (since he's not going to vote for himself). If he's prepared to vote for Arsene (or Papagena), we then have options and can see how the two remaining suspects vote. And the two known innocents should then agree on who we should lynch.
[*editted to add - if Arsene was innocent I think two of them must be guilty]
[ 10. November 2010, 00:07: Message edited by: Eliab ]
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
OK, Eli, you've convinced me, Arsene looks guilty as hell. But his vote only makes sense if Andrew is also guilty. To lynch Andrew, you just need one of Seth or Madoc to vote with you and Miss Smudgeson. But if you hold out to see if you can get two votes out of Seth/Madoc/Andrew for Arsene or Papagena, you give the Guardians (if two out of those three are Guardians) the chance to gang up and ensure the lynching of a potentially innocent Papagena. So I think you should go ahead and vote to lynch Andrew.
I'm not saying this because I voted for Andrew, but because it's what makes sense to me given the votes so far and the potential votes still available. At this point it looks to me like getting either Arsene or Andrew is equally good.
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
That is, getting either Arsene or Andrew would be an equally good outcome. But I think one of those (Andrew) Is a more likely achievable goal.
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
I mostly agree, Rose, but it's Andrew's vote that I want to see: if he is guilty, and either Seth or Madoc do not believe that (or pretend not to believe it) I don't want his vote coming in as an 'unexpected' spoiler. Let's see what he does. Seth and Madoc are both smart enough to count the votes: if either puts a suspect in the clear, we learn something.
I imagine that Hyacinth is going to vote for Andrew if he's lynchable and no one else is. It'll do no harm to have another option, though. A guilty coalition of all three of Andrew, Seth and Madoc could always hang this vote, but to do that, all three need to be blatant about it (if Andrew votes first). I don't think they'll do that - because we might get lucky with the doctor's aid tonight and then we'll have them. So I don't want to give them the opportunity (if they are all guilty) to spoil the vote by anything other than out-and-out combined obstruction.
Let's see Andrew's vote. Then the others. Then the Masons.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Lest others fall for Eli:
I have by no means split the vote but simply voted for whom I nominated - knowing that there are sufficient votes out there to lynch her. We still can achieve this.
I think it is obvious that it's Eli who tries to split the vote by making a fourth(!) nomination at the last minute. On a day with only nine people standing this number of nominees is hugely increasing the likelihood of a hung vote and save Papagena.
This late nomination from someone who always stressed how important it is to lynch and gain information rather than be inactive?!
From someone who only yesterday claimed to suspect Papagena as suspect number 2 himself (we lynched his innocent nominee Lady B. instead)?
But who does not now want to vote for Papagena when he has the chance? Who made no attempt to explain this inconsistency? Who has put forward two people for lynching who turned out to be innocent?
Ok, I'd obviously be willing to die (I am an ordinary citizen, so we could strike at more harmful targets like the doctor) if the information gained would make my team win.
But with so few people left and all Guardians still alive lynching me will probably lose the game for the citizen's camp next day.
There may be a stroke of luck with the doctor protecting the right citizen.
In that lucky case: If I die you can still benefit from the information gained by my death and lynch Eli tomorrow and Papagena the following day.
Better to lynch Papagena today and Eli tomorrow.
It is up to the last voters.
PS: I don't know how to link to individual posts. So here is where Eli said he was suspicious of Papagena (on page 5):
# Papagena, (CuppaT), nominated by Arsène Beauregard (Sylvander)
I'm pretty suspicious of Papagena, ...
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
quote:
That's good enough for me. I think Arsene is guilty.
The trouble is, if any two of Madoc, Seth or Andrew are guilty, they can save him. Neither Hyacinth or I should vote until they have done so.
Right, this is where it starts to get dangerously close to the line.If we vote no lynching, we effectively give this round to the guardians, who will no doubt kill someone else during the night. I can't see any reasons really why Arsene or Papagena is guilty. On the other hand, Eli has been so wrong in the past, that he has to get at least one right....doesn't he? Still, I'm nervous.
Arsene hasn't really featured on my radar I must admit, and I think it's daft to say Papagena is guilty based on her silent watching. I don't like the fact that Eli is implying that if I don't vote with him then I increase my guilt. Knowing I am innocent therefore, I'm not going to play into that game, but I do follow that the two masons should hold out until the votes are cast.
I can't figure out if Whiskers is up to something odd, or just pretending to be odd. Why be deliberately obscure if you are innocent? He's definitely playing a game and I'm left wondering if he is trying to find the defector and is a guardian himself. I can't know for certain, but I just find Whiskers activity really suspicious. I vote to lynch Whiskers
[ 10. November 2010, 08:22: Message edited by: fletcher christian ]
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
quote:
Any of the following may be in play
Could this be the first mafia game with no mafia, leaving us all to kill each other? ![[Ultra confused]](graemlins/confused2.gif)
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Eli has been so wrong in the past, that he has to get at least one right....doesn't he?
If his intentions were good his guesses like anybody's would hit the target sooner or later, that is true. But they are not guesses. ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I think it's daft to say Papagena is guilty based on her silent watching.
Admittedly it was a relatively weak argument based on past experience. For want of any better...
What increased my initial suspicion is that Eli first pretends to suspect her and then inexplicably drops this to protect her instead.
The only person I am sure is guilty is Eli at this stage. [As mason-defector. He is either that or mad].
No mafia and slow mutual suicide instead? Now that sounds like a party! Maybe 'twas the Great Cat that killed people during the night. We are just cute little mice in her paws, doomed!
[ 10. November 2010, 08:43: Message edited by: Sylvander ]
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Which means we can get Papagena or Arsene only if all four people still to vote agree.
The known innocents can only ensure the lynching of Whisker. So if I vote now, I have to vote for him, and then Madoc's vote won't matter (and neither will Andrew's, as he will be dead).
So I'm now definitely going to wait. So should Miss Smudgeson. Let's see which way the last two jump.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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El Greco
Shipmate
# 9313
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Posted
I vote for Papagena. I still think Rose and Seth are guilty though. And their voting in this round confirms my suspicions.
ETA: Is this a false stick? I'm not a false priest. Papagena, you made baby Ra cry. So, there. Die, godless heretic!
[ 10. November 2010, 11:09: Message edited by: El Greco ]
Posts: 11285 | Registered: Apr 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Arsene nominated Papagena last round at the very last minute, rendering his moaning about Eli's last-minute nomination this round a bit suspect.
On the other hand, Arsene is consistent, having voted against Papagena both last round and this round. So his defense that he was just voting for his nominee might hold water.
On the third hand, when Arsene voted, there were only five votes outstanding after him, meaning that he had to garner 4 out of those 5 if Papagena was actually to be lynched. And we want to avoid lynching Papagena if she's actually innocent. So when Arsene voted, he was in effect proposing (or hoping) that out of Seth/Madoc/Andrew/Eli/Smudgeson, only one was a Guardian or Defector. Which means he was in effect proposing/hoping that at least one of either Dai Mortal or me is a Guardian or Defector. If he truly believes there is a Defector, then he's proposing/hoping that both Dai Mortal and me are Guardians or Defectors (along with Papagena).
I know that I'm a Citizen. So either there is no Defector, or Arsene is wrong at least in part about who the guilty are. On the other hand, being wrong in part does not rule out also being right in part. Which could pretty much describe any of us (partly wrong, partly right).
Bah, I thought this reasoning would lead me to some deep insight, but no such luck.
Rose wondered if she dared ask Madoc to take another walk around the dunes/dunes/dunes/dunes again, or if she'd had enough of sand in her shoes.
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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