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Source: (consider it) Thread: Circus: Mafia - the Valley of the Kings
Autenrieth Road

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Fresh air never hurt anyone, plus there were some things she wanted to be sure Madoc knew. She'd risk promenading with a possible Guardian in order to prevent him from claiming ignorance later.

Lieutenant Madoc, note the votes so far.

Arsene Beauregard, 1 vote. He can't be lynched this round. A vote for him is in effect a vote to lynch Andrew Whisker.

Andrew Whisker, 3 votes. A vote for him means that he's the only one who can be lynched, and presumably will then be lynched since our two Masons will I expect go for a lynching rather than no lynching.

Papagena, 2 votes. A vote for the kitty cat leaves the final decision of who to lynch (Whisker the man, or the whiskered beastie) up to the two Masons.

Seth, no votes. He also can't be lynched, and a vote for him is in effect a vote to lynch Andrew Whisker.

Mission accomplished, Rose indicated that they should turn back to the tea tent. The Lieutenant escorted her to the door, uh, flap, then bowed and withdrew. Inside, everyone who had voted so far was sitting as far from each other as possible, glowering in suspicion. Rose gingerly took a seat between Mr Seth and the cat, and waved for a cup of tea.

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Truth

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Autenrieth Road

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No tea was forthcoming. Miss Smudgeson seemed to be away often, presumably carrying out important Masonic rituals, rather than showing her cheery face behind the tea counter. Rose took advantage of the quiet in the tent to commit the faux pas of triple-posting.

quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I know that I'm a Citizen. So either there is no Defector, or Arsene is wrong at least in part about who the guilty are.

Or Arsene is guilty, and probably seeking to protect a guilty Andrew. (Any other possibilities for Arsene?)

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Truth

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Eliab
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Or Arsene is guilty, and probably seeking to protect a guilty Andrew. (Any other possibilities for Arsene?)

He genuinely doesn't trust me. It seems bizarre, because if we start lynching people on the basis of things like the masonic defector fantasy, we are effectively bargaining blind refusing to trust anything but unobtainable certitude.

But it must be possible because Lady Bernardine nominated me even after I'd claimed to be a mason, and even after she knew that there must have been two masons who would have exposed a false claim. And, to my astonishment, she was innocent.

If that's the case, though, I can't see why he's blowing so much smoke in my direction, and still (incredibly) agreeing with me. Because I'd said, coming into this vote, that while I suspected Madoc and Beauregard, if it came down to a coin-toss between Whisker and Papagena, I'd pick Papagena*. And Papagena is Arsene's nominee, and he voted for her when (as you say) it made little sense to do so unless he was pretty sure about it.


We can over-analyse, but it seems to me that we have to lynch people who look guilty. Arsene looks guilty. We have no defence against innocents who act as if they were cultists because they haven't thought things through, or counted the votes, or listened to who nominated whom and why. That's why "Be Alert" was in my guidance notes. It's important. Unless every innocent acts rationally, it is impossible to distinguish thoughtlessness from enemy action. Because anyone, no matter how suspicious their behaviour, might be innocent if we posit enough stupidity.

[*edited to say - I'm not saying now whether I still would - I want to see what Madoc does now)

[ 10. November 2010, 15:05: Message edited by: Eliab ]

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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

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CuppaT
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I had been assuming that Arsene was merely a bothersome fly buzzing around me, ignoring everyone else. It seems to me now, though, that a logical explanation is that he is the defector, and had earlier inspected me and found me to be a citizen, and that now he has inspected a Guardian and has gone over, going after the one person whom he knows to be a safe one to get. His new cronies will (seemingly) reluctantly agree with him. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't stop Andrew this time. We can get Arse next time around.

I think BL just made a mistake by nominating a Mason. That early on some of us didn't fully understand the roles as much as we do when it is being played out. We still have the vigilante and the veteran to worry about, too. Look out for who wants a hung vote because that may be the vigilante wanting to get a chance to play his role.

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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony

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Eliab
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quote:
Originally posted by CuppaT:
I think BL just made a mistake by nominating a Mason. That early on some of us didn't fully understand the roles as much as we do when it is being played out. We still have the vigilante and the veteran to worry about, too. Look out for who wants a hung vote because that may be the vigilante wanting to get a chance to play his role.

I'm not sure that there even is a vigilante. And the less we say about the veteren, the better. That is the one role that we do not want revealed - if there is a veteren, we want him to surprise someone.

I'm certainly not going to hang the vote in the hope that the vigilante exists and agrees with me. If Madoc votes for you, I'll think very carefully about what to do, but otherwise it'll be Whisker.

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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

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Autenrieth Road

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It hadn't occurred to me that the Defector wouldn't learn who the Guardians are upon defection. Yikes!

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Truth

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El Greco
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Bah, I thought this reasoning would lead me to some deep insight, but no such luck.

Reasoning is overrated, dear Guardian.
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Ariston
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His duties as a soldier had detained Lt. Madoc for longer then anticipated; an opportunity for a walk with Rose, well...
He wasn't convinced that she wasn't a Guardian-in fact, he rather liked the idea that she was one-but, with all this finger-pointing and suspicion, only Guardians would emerge unscathed. These divisions and allegations had only broken the camp's ability to fight back; without even a small amount of trust and cooperation, everyone would wake up with their throats slit.
Andrew Whiskers would not be the first man driven to insanity as a consequence of his heinous deeds-nor would he be the first lunatic to kill because of his fractured mind. Papagena...well, she was a cat. Enough said. Then again, there were plenty of people who became a mite strange after exposure to the desert sun and the vast sandy wastes-and Owain rather wanted to believe the best about his companion during the long night watches. Either of them could be guilty, or even both of them. At this point, though, every innocent life mattered.
Which made him consider his own. He would be a far more valuable asset to the camp as a living innocent than as a guiltless corpse. Eli, for whatever reason (Madoc suspected he was trying to form a voting bloc via blackmail) was casting his typical aspersions on innocents; Owain took this suspicion as public evidence of his own innocence. But-how to keep from voting in a way that Was Exactly What Eli Would Expect A Guardian To Do?
Vote for Andrew, we get an almost-certain death of a likely Guardian; of course, making it so that he is the only person who could be lynched WEWEWEAGTD.
Papagena? A tie vote, to be decided by the Masons. An absolution from personal responsibility, fits in with Eli's suspicions, and, because it's inconspicuous, WEWEWEAGTD.
Arsene or Seth? As good as deliberately splitting the vote, and indirectly forcing one for Andrew. Clever, covert, and WEWEWEAGTD.
No lynching? Unexpected. Stelthy. A shock to all, an attempt to keep from killing an innocent to buy more time-but, as it would do nothing about our cultist infestation, WEWEWEAGTD.
So no matter what I do, I get nominated by Eli for acting exactly as a cultist would (like being silent). A great attempt to blackmail me into voting your way, if I do say so myself!
Your suggestions are worthless, your advice worth still less. You suspect the kitty? I do too, but Andrew just as much-and, based on your track record, I'm going against you. Had you kept your damn mouth shut, I might not have forced your hand; as it happened, though, we're all quite glad that we've figured out how to interpret your "advice."

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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.

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El Greco
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The thunderous voice insisted.

"Come to me..."

"Yes, Master", Andrew dared to whisper. The high priest was shocked that the Great One offered him a private audience in the Sparkling Throne Room.

The high priest became white, as his heart rate started to decrease. His heart beat grew slower and slower. Until everything became full of deep blue light. Ra's eyes were fixed on Andrew's face. "I have work for you to do in my Chambers", the Great One said.

Andrew suddenly became calm and forgot all that was troubling him. The masonic mafia was a dim memory. Andrew's heart stopped. Ra was very pleased with his servant.

Andrew's body was found a couple of hours later by an Egyptian worker. He was holding his stuff firmly and he was wearing the precious diadem. The sacred scarabs were dead in his pocket.

[ 10. November 2010, 17:17: Message edited by: El Greco ]

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Ξέρω εγώ κάτι που μπορούσε, Καίσαρ, να σας σώσει.

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Autenrieth Road

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Good gracious, Andrew Whisker seems to have died of fright before the two Masons could show up to finish lynching him!

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Truth

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El Greco
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In Andrew Whisker's pocket was found a small piece of paper. It was sealed and at the front it read: "IN CASE OF VIOLENT DEATH. TO BE READ THREE DAYS AFTER I GET MURDERED. ANDREW WHISKERS, SERVANT OF THE OLD GODS". The workers had broken the seal, and the content was open for all to read.

[ 10. November 2010, 19:40: Message edited by: El Greco ]

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Eliab
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Though it seems rather superfluous at this point, we are in a tight enough corner without angering the Red Cat Goddess. So, in the manner of your Christian Saul, I record my consent to the death of Andrew Whisker.

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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

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Dafyd
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Dai was finding the tension of waiting to see whether Whisker was or was not a guardian hard to bear. He went to the bar to get a drink. Where he may be subsequently found slumped drunk and muttering incoherently about calamari.

OoC: I shall have irregular internet access for maybe a week.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Sylvander
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
So when Arsene voted, he was in effect proposing (or hoping) that out of Seth/Madoc/Andrew/Eli/Smudgeson, only one was a Guardian or Defector. Which means he was in effect proposing/hoping that at least one of either Dai Mortal or me is a Guardian or Defector. If he truly believes there is a Defector, then he's proposing/hoping that both Dai Mortal and me are Guardians or Defectors (along with Papagena).[/i]

Will you think very badly of me if I say that I do not generally approach games with such academic rigour [Hot and Hormonal] ? I would not speculate like that as I do not think it works that way.
Why? Partly because such speculation rests on too many unknowns - and if one followed the reasoning then the first one or two voters (Guardian?) would effectively determine the outcome. The longer the game lasts the likelier a Guardian or other will be forced to lynch one of their own if voting differently would look too suspicious. So the identity of the late birds is not so important.

And now I am holding my breath for the revelation who Andrew really was. The Divine Cat is still sleeping it appears.
His letter was not helpful. As far as I could make out it said that he wishes as his gravestone engraving:

Here rest in peace I do
I'd rather it were you!

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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

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El Greco
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quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
As far as I could make out it said that he wishes as his gravestone engraving:

Here rest in peace I do
I'd rather it were you!

[Killing me]

This is hilarious!

+++++ Doctor Andrew Whisker was a Citizen.

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Autenrieth Road

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Oh hell. Rose burst out with a stream of four-letter words.: Pear. Lime. Blue. Grey. Pink. Road.

OK, I retract my suspicion of you, Arsene. So that puts the Guardians as at least three of Dai, Seth, Papagena, and Madoc. If there's a defected defector, we're doomed. So let's hope there's not a defector. So it illustrates that I was right in my suspicions that the Guardians are the quiet ones. On that basis I'd guess Madoc to be the innocent odd man out.

Drat, darn, piss, and tarnation. I should have voted for Papagena. I was taken in by her oh-so-innocent manner.

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Truth

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Autenrieth Road

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quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
and if one followed the reasoning then the first one or two voters (Guardian?) would effectively determine the outcome.

And that's exactly what they did do. Dai and Papagena diverted attention by splitting their vote, but by not voting for Papagena they lured me into also not voting for Papagena, and the subtle tilt away from Papagena eventually led to Citizen Whisker's demise.

Bah, blast, and blivet.

Well, kudos to you for sticking to your Papagena-guns.

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Truth

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Eliab
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
OK, I retract my suspicion of you, Arsene.

Why?

I don't know for sure if Papagena is guilty or innocent. And if Arsene isn't a cultist, and we believe his own words, neither did he.

Voting for her, when Arsene did it, was a bad vote. There was next to no chance of getting her. Andrew was the lead candidate from our discussions. For all the innocent voters knew, he could have been a cultist. A spoiler vote was still a spoiler even though he turned out to be guiltless.

If there's four Guardians left, they've now won.

If there are three, then Arsene and Madoc are two of them. The third, I'm guessing at. Maybe Papagena, and Arsene was playing a double bluff. But I also can't shake the suspicion that Rose, who prepared to sacrifice Arsene if necessary, has now seen the chance of a perfect win. Frankly, if she is guilty, she deserves it because she's as sly a snake as it has ever been my pleausre to meet, but I'll deny it to her if I can.

My advice: Arsene first. Then Madoc. Then? Well, three more of us will be dead by then, and that may limit our options. Let's see how it goes.

--------------------
"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

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Sylvander
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I hope this lynching increased my credibility. Just in case night falls and the Guardians get me, my suspicions for the record:

1. Eli - as close to "absolutely sure" as a citizen can get. (Why? His many illogical reasonings, as stated many times above. Andrew is the third innocent we lynched on Eli's advice ... I hope that now at last certain people will cease being awed by him. And of course Lady B., the first who ever nominated him paid with her life – what a coincidence [Biased] )
Yep, I hate playing on the basis of a flaw in the rules, but nothing explains his behaviour unless he is mason-defector).

2. Papagena - reasonably sure (Why? As stated above)

3. Rose - not sure
Why? She did not answer my invitation for a moonlight walk, grrrr! AND Andrew suspected her AND she was convinced by Eli at a point when I think he was all too obviously off the mark. I suspect she is too intelligent to do so by mistake (seriously, for a change). On the other hand she seemed to be genuinely thinking aloud (much like I do) and correcting herself. Thinking aloud a lot is good for the citizens' camp and risky for Guardians.
But then - I could be absolutely wrong in all my reasonings and what a fool I'd look later.

or
Dafyd - not sure.
Why?
He repeatedly mispelt my name as Beauregarde [Mad]
He also agrees with Eli often. And because of this pseudo-maths post

quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
In your group C, surely you meant "guardian" and not "mason"?

oops, yes. I was possibly confusing the guardians with a criminal organisation based in the Mediterranean (Sicily) that also starts with 'ma'.

The number of possibilities in which there are:
i) Two guardians in C; one in B or A: 1*5= 5.
ii) One guardian in C; one in B, one in A: 2*3*2 = 12
iii) One in C; two in
[...] etc.

A) A Guardian would know that there is a mason in his own camp and might accidentally make the mistake above. (Could be genuine error, though).

B) These pseudo-maths are usually useless because you don't gain much from (even exact) maths based on very inaccurate figures (i.e. speculative guesses) to start from. But this kind of post, so confusing that nobody checks the details but looking impressive is much in Eli's style when he tries to stun people into believing him while talking rubbish. Why does Dafyd go for this game, now?

That is my little wisdom at this point. Have not thought about Madoc, Seth, Dai much. Why does Rose not mention Dafyd?
We might gain better insights from analysing past voting and arguing patterns based on Andrews' innocence. I don't have time to re-read the thread. I trust Eli the Serpent will come up with something incomprehensible, though. Other contributors welcome!

The most important thing imho now is to get rid of Eli! If he is innocent I advocate running amok randomly as our best option. I at least would feel absolutely clueless.
(Relatively) luckily Andrew was nothing more valuable than a citizen (sorry, old man). That is relatively good for us: If we are lucky the Guardians will hit a wrong target tonight [Smile]

If there are three Guardians plus a defector then the game is over anyway, innit?

On the other hand, there are five fingers, too.

PS: Arsène won't have internet access from Fri noon to Sunday. The Guardians can't murder people in Nuremberg, can they?

PPS: If the Guardians strike at the veteran – who gets to choose which Guardian dies with him? And what happens if the veteran happens to be protected by the doctor? Does his attacker still die?

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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

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Autenrieth Road

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Eli, I return to you the compliment of sly as a snake. I'm hoping that just as I am innocent, you are innocent. But it does not escape my attention that you are now advocating killing off exactly the people I believe are innocent, and you have abandoned your original position that one of Lady B, Whisker, and Papagena were guilty. We've discovered Lady B and Whisker to be Citizens, so why abandon your convictions now? Why not believe Papagena to be guilty?

I'm more convinced by my "the quiet ones are guilty" principle than by your position against talkative Arsene and Madoc.

[cross-posted]

[ 11. November 2010, 14:17: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]

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Truth

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Sylvander
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Rose, I just notice Eli is not just a serpent but a X-poster. And he is throwing suspicion upon you. This in my eyes indicates you are probably innocent.

If I were Eli I'd now try to manipulate you by saying you can "prove" (=increase likelihood) your innocence by voting with me to lynch him tomorrow. But I don't like these manipulative ways - yet still hope you'd be willing to be persuaded that he is the most likely candidate.
If you are not convinced (please explain why, whether there is more in it than his mason status) and nor are the others then I'd go with you for Papagena.

But you just discovered yet another blatant inconsistency in Eli's reasoning (thanks for spotting that one) - how much more proof will you need? He is a player who in the past was known for focussing on a suspect and consistently going after them with all his might. This time he is constantly swaying hither and thither like a drunken monkey.

Main thing is that we all agree on the same candidate tomorrow - because if the game continues at all then we can only have a 1-vote majority left. How does one technically make sure of such an agreement when not everybody is trustworthy and we can only vote one after the other? Sigh.

(There is of course the possibility that Eli and Rose enact a great theatre for our benefit to make sure Rose survives for the Guardians till the end! But I would at present not lynch Rose on that basis. Only draw my hat).

--------------------
A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

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Autenrieth Road

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quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
If there's four Guardians left, they've now won.

Actually, not quite. It just occurred to me: if the Defector doesn't get told who the three Guardians are, and/or if the three Guardians don't get told that someone has defected, then a Defector might accidentally help us lynch a Guardian, or a Guardian help us lynch a Defector.

Red Cat Goddess, would you be willing to clarify for us who gets told what?

Rose appealed, desperately, to the inscrutable oracle.

Arsene, I like your story of sticking to your Papagena-guns as a Citizen and trying to foil possible early Guardian voters; over Eli's story that it was obviously a bad move -- Eli's story doesn't give us any chance to foil early Guardian voters throwing us off the scent of an effecive lynching.

I haven't said much about Dafyd/Dai becuase there isn't much to say: he's been playing an effective Guardian strategy of lying low, and it makes it mentally very hard to say anything about him because there are so many other talkative players speaking to my gut-instinct-lizard-brain saying "pay attention to us." Same with Seth/fletcher christian. Same with CuppaT/Papagena. That's what makes Guardians-staying-quiet such an effective strategy. We have to overcome our gut instincts enough to bring them up to consciousness. It's part of what schnookered me into voting against Whisker instead of Papagena: Whisker was behaving so very oddly I thought there must be something there, and I was extremely curious to find out what it was. The inoffensive kitty cat just slipped right on by. It's like a cloak of invisibility "nothing to see here, folks, just walk on by."

[cross-posted again! Arsene, give me some time to now read and digest your latest post.]

[ 11. November 2010, 14:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]

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Truth

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Autenrieth Road

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You know, technically Andrew Whisker hasn't been lynched yet. So Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson could help us out by voting for No Lynching, or for Arsene or Papagena (in effect a no lynching). Then it will be discovered that Andrew hasn't died, merely fainted, and we'll be one stronger to hold off the Guardians' onslaught in the next round.

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Truth

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Sylvander
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
You know, technically Andrew Whisker hasn't been lynched yet.

Brilliant! You are even more cunning than I suspected! [Killing me] Vicious even. Go, show 'em baddies that we can play dirty, too [Big Grin]

Who came up with the idea that the defector does not get told who the others are? Would not make sense to me - in what way would he part of their team? He could not deliberate on nightly killings, he would be effectively powerless. He could vaguely feel he won if the Guardians do, but it is not much of a game for him is it?

It is not quite irrelevant in what order we lynch. IF the Guardians hit a veteran and they (rather than the veteran or the Divine Cat) get to choose who in their team ought to die, they'd choose the one whom we most suspected anyway. Personally I'd say that was Eli, so they'd give him up first, I expect.
But we do not need to discuss this now - let's see whom they kill overnight and if they hit the veteran.

quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
[cross-posted again! Arsene, give me some time to now read and digest your latest post.]

Apologies. I never wrote so much on an internet thread in my life. But I'll mostly be away this weekend and next week, so I have to share all my tuppence' worth with my team now.

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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
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El Greco
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
You know, technically Andrew Whisker hasn't been lynched yet. So Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson could help us out by voting for No Lynching, or for Arsene or Papagena (in effect a no lynching). Then it will be discovered that Andrew hasn't died, merely fainted, and we'll be one stronger to hold off the Guardians' onslaught in the next round.

I'm sure that Eli would then argue that it was all a cunning plan, and he would convince someone to nominate me for next round.
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Smudgie

Ship's Barnacle
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Hmmm...

Hyacynth mused over her strong cup of tea. Her customers - a rather depleted group - all seemed deep in thought too. Things were getting increasingly tense.

She was not sure precisely what had happened with Andrew Whisker. Was he dead? Was he innocent? Rumours abounded but there seemed little clarity. Still convinced of his guilt, she was unsure of the direction her vote should take (and the fuzzy headed sensation coming from forgetting to take her tablets that morning didn't help!). But it seems to her that a vote for papagena might at least help rid the camp of fleas.

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Autenrieth Road

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Dear Red Cat Goddess,

Given that Dai (Dafyd) and Arsene (Sylvander) will not have reliable internet access for the next week, could we have a week's break in action? That would give them a chance to join in nominations, discussions, and defenses. That is, if the other players are amenable to biting their fingernails for another week. It would be a pity for the end-game of this down-to-the-wire contest to be vitiated by lack of all the interested parties.

Very Sincerely,
Rose Autenrieth

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Truth

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CuppaT
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Black Cat Questions:

Who ever said that Andrew was innocent? I don't see it anywhere and the Red one has not come yet. We all act like a bunch of lemmings most of the time.

Why does a dead man keep on talking so much?

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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
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what the hell is goin on? Hehe...I feel like it's suddenly swung towards an episode of the twilight zone here.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Sylvander
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quote:
Originally posted by CuppaT:
Who ever said that Andrew was innocent?

He did himself in a premature death scene.

quote:
Originally posted by CuppaT:
We all act like a bunch of lemmings most of the time.

Oh, so you Guardians want to throw your hands up and commit group suicide? That would be a pity now that we almost gotcha!

quote:
Originally posted by CuppaT:
Why does a dead man keep on talking so much?

Says the talking cat... [Biased]

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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
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Autenrieth Road

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(cross-posted)

Papagena, Andrew himself said he is a Citizen, after his declaration of apparent death.

As for a hiatus, on second thought, it does risk losing momentum, so maybe it's not a good idea. Dear Red Cat Goddess, do as you think best. Well, of course you'd do that anyway.

Arsene, I'll be rereading the thread with an eye to considering Eli as a Defector-Mason. Are we agreed on going after one of Papagena or Eli? I'm still unsure about changing my trust of Eli. For the record, what has swayed me towards trusting him was his explanation about why he wouldn't defect even if he were a Defector, so I'll be reexamining that too.

[ 11. November 2010, 18:12: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]

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Truth

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Sylvander
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Are we agreed on going after one of Papagena or Eli?

For my part, yes.
Hee hee, I can almost see the Guardians hectically working out a strategy behind the scenes, cold sweat on their fronts. (Or is that a self-satisfied grin and a rubbing of hands?)

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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
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la vie en rouge
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So now that we have Hyacinth’s vote :

  • Andrew Whisker (El Greco) 5 votes
  • Papagena (CuppaT) 3 votes
  • Arsène Beauregarde 1 vote.

You naughty, naughty archaeological camp. As Andrew truthfully said, you’ve once again offed a citizen.

Since Andrew has apparently already achieved communion with Ra, night falls directly.

Please PM your night actions now.

I think we should probably be ok without the hiatus in the game, since things always slow down over the weekend anyway. I shall be a little indulgent with the timings (and don’t forget that the Red Cat is also available as a proxy if need be).

(Oh, and the rules clarification – if a defector finds one of the Guardians, they find them all.)

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Eliab
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Eli Abrahams retires to his tent, but cannot sleep. For the first time since Lord Whisker died, he is deeply unsure whether he will survive these Guardians. He lights one small hooded lantern, and checks, for the last time, the maze of trip-wires, alarm bells and booby traps that festoon the sides of the tent.

Except, that is, for the small flap of canvas that has been deftly cut with a razor and secured in place. Eli’s heart misses a beat, and he turns back to his bed, already knowing what he will see.

The masked figure sits, relaxed against Eli’s richly embroidered pillows. His – or her – hand rests on a small steel cross-bow. An unimpressive device, looking more like a toy than a serious weapon, but Abrahams has seen such a thing before. The winch-drawn, sprung steel arm is more than capable of punching an iron bolt through a human body. And such bolts are commonly poisoned.


“You could scream, of course. And, perhaps, someone would come rushing in to save you. It’s a shame that you trapped the entrance, isn’t it?”

Eli shakes his head, sadly. “You know that I can’t do that. That would be one more life you need to take, wouldn’t it? Otherwise you’d have shot before I knew you were here.”

“I could have done.”

“But you want something from me, perhaps? Can we do a deal?” The Jew’s cheeks flush as the blood returns. Perhaps there is still hope.

“Assuredly we can do a deal. To expiate your violation of his tomb, your soul can serve great Senkhet.”

“I have money. Your brotherhood must need that. I have information, contacts... there must be something you need.”

“We have no use for anything else of yours. Except, perhaps, your voice. You can scream, leap aside, go for the pistol in your coat pocket. It’s just behind you. Your friends may come. They may step past the bear trap. I might miss. It’s your last chance. Will you take it?”

Eli stands in thought for a moment, staring at the impassive figure. At last he turns around slowly, wraps his prayer-shawl around his shoulders, and bows his head. The bed creaks softly, and there are footsteps drawing close. He feel the assassin’s breath, and sense the tip of the crossbow bolt barely touching the back of his shirt. He opens his mouth, which is as dry as the desert sands, willing the words out in a rasping, hesitant voice: “Shema Yisral, Adonai Eloheinu Ad...”

The bolt takes Eli Abrahams cleanly through the heart. The assassin in supports the body as it falls, laying it soundlessly onto the carpeted floor, before stepping over the concealed trap and departing into the cool night.


Eli Abrahams is dead. He was a Mason and (most unfortunately) not any sort of defector.

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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

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Autenrieth Road

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Ah, fuck. That is an extremely odd choice. Why kill Eli, when by leaving him alive the Guardians could continue to leave us Citizens roiling in dissension and possibly lynching him, an innocent, rather than finding a Guardian to lynch?

I have to say, except for Hart's murder, the Guardians have surprised me at every turn with their murders. (I didn't predict Hart's murder, but it wasn't surprising after the fact.)

I suppose it could be because he was suspicious of Arsene and Madoc, but surely his suspicions were carrying less and less weight, with Arsene and me declared as not going to go along with Eli.

I nominate Papagena.

(Incidentally, when I proposed that Miss Smudgeson vote for a No Lynching and we could have Andrew Whisker back alive, I had miscounted the votes and didn't realize that Eliab's vote had been sufficient to lynch already.)

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Truth

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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

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Eli Abrahams (Eliab) is dead. He was a mason.

Nominations are now open - in view of the weekend and people not getting on line as often as usual, probably until about Wednesday night.

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Rent my holiday home in the South of France

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
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Seth felt disappointed......again. How could it be that we have lynched so many people who turned out to be innocent? The guardians were obviously playing a very clever game. He took some coffee out of his flask and sat in the sand to be consoled by his camels. Not one person had made an approach to him to hire a camel and get out of this dump. Business was slow and with less and less people it was going to get slower. Seth began to think about the possibility of packing everything up and leaving for a new dessert before he too ended up buried in the sand

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Autenrieth Road

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Rose repeated her nomination of Papagena, just in case the first one had been too early.

Then she ducked into the teatent's deserted kitchen (where was Miss Smudgeson hiding herself these days?) and whipped up a batch of lemon squares. Wrapping them in a napkin, she put them in a basket and headed out to the camel string.

"Mr Seth, you were wanting a new dessert?"

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Truth

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CuppaT
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Ok, that was pretty clever, even if you did nominate me.

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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:

Dafyd - not sure.
Why?
He repeatedly mispelt my name as Beauregarde [Mad]
He also agrees with Eli often. And because of this pseudo-maths post
A) A Guardian would know that there is a mason in his own camp and might accidentally make the mistake above. (Could be genuine error, though).

B) These pseudo-maths are usually useless because you don't gain much from (even exact) maths based on very inaccurate figures (i.e. speculative guesses) to start from. But this kind of post, so confusing that nobody checks the details but looking impressive is much in Eli's style when he tries to stun people into believing him while talking rubbish. Why does Dafyd go for this game, now?

Dai woke up briefly from alcoholic slumbers briefly to answer the allegations.
Dai apologises again for the misspelling. He would like to point out that the Great Red Cat goddess is also doing it. (Although he thinks it may be he who confused her, so he's doubly apologetic.)
Eli clearly was innocent even before the guardians offed him. And although he'd been unlucky with his votes so far, I still maintain he was basing his reasoning on sound principles.
The confusion of masons and guardians was indeed a mistake.
I came out with that maths post above because Rose asked me to clarify my pedantic comments. I agree that the maths is only as good as the underlying assumptions. The underlying assumptions in this case are that either you or Papagena are guilty. I notice that by your repeated accusations of Papagena you are agreeing with them. So why are you questioning assumptions that you agree with? Hmm?
As for Rose's assertion that I'm too quiet, I've looked back over the history and I have been not been as quiet as she's making out, even before she accused me.

Why was Eli killed by the guardians? We knew he was innocent, but if enough people accused him of being the defector he could have been lynched. If Rose and Beauregard had nominated him, three guardians could have joined them and they'd have lynched him. So why kill him first? An obvious answer: the guardians weren't sure of having three additional votes on top of Rose and Beauregard. At least one of Beauregard and Rose is a guardian.

Other reasons the guardians might have wanted Eli dead?
1) He had accused Beauregard or Madoc, or;
2) The guardians wanted us to think it was because he had accused Beauregard and Madoc, or;
3) The guardians wanted us to think they wanted us to think it was because he'd accused Beauregard and Madoc. etc.
In other words, we can't say whether the guardians are bluffing or double-bluffing. I suspect the double-bluff myself - although that's because I already suspect Beauregard.

Anyway, we need to get it right this time. I still think our best bet is to go for Papagena or Beauregard. And as is probably obvious I think Beauregard is more suspicious.

[ 12. November 2010, 20:21: Message edited by: Dafyd ]

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
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Eli? They'd knocked off Eli???
Lt. Madoc really didn't understand this one; surely the Guardians should have left Eli alive to divide the camp and gone for Miss Smudgeson. Having a Mason with little credibility would be an asset to the cultists; if it weren't an insane proposition, Owain would have thought suicide more likely than assassination.
Well, this about cleared his name-the lieutenant would have never allowed one of his men to act in such a way-especially when that action pointed at their officer! Plus, having Eli pointing fingers at him was something of a proof of innocence; if anything, recent events seemed to be an attempt to frame Madoc more than anything else.
Pity, really; it wasn't a very good attempt. Why, if he'd been in charge of the cultists, the camp would have been dead for some time! The fact that this would mean he would be dead as well (along with, presumably, Rose) was tempered consideribly by the thought of the Captain being dead as well. Despite all the chaos in the camp, his commander was exhibiting a perfectly typical response by an English army officer to wholesale slaughter: sitting in his tent and ignoring it. Lieutenant Madoc wondered if he was planning on doing anything about the potential Guardian victory...
Perish the thought. Madoc and his men were ready, but he wasn't so sure about the other companies.
As for the recent ad hoc judicial proceedings...well, Papagena has been on the ballot a few times already. Let's hope that this hunch, at long last, pays off in our eleventh hour.

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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.

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Dafyd
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It occurs to me after some thought that another reason that the guardians might have gone after Eli is that he was sufficiently unpopular that the guardians thought that the doctor wouldn't protect him. That makes some of my reasoning about Beauregard even more flawed than it was anyway. I call it reasoning; I suppose it's really just rationalised guesswork. Aaargh...

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Sylvander
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Arsène is flabbergasted. [Eek!]
Even if few people will believe it.
At least the Guardians will [Smile]

I am flabbergasted by Eli's often irrational game which persuaded me of the "mason-defector fantasy" (his words). No doubt he will think the same about me. I was the more convinced of his his guilt because I know (and you will, too, if you lynch me today) that after I accused him I became the fourth innocent whom he put forward for lynching.

I am flabbergasted by the Guardians' killing Eli when it looked pretty much like we were going to lynch him tomorrow.

I find only few rational explanations for this murder:

a) The Guardians thought Eli was the one innocent least likely to be protected by the doctor (because many people - possibly incl.the doctor? - suspected him by now).

b) The Guardians knew that I was wrong in my suspicion of Eli (i.e. not dangerous for them) but some innocents seemed to trust me - possibly this meant the doctor protected me.

c) As a mason Eli (like Smudgeson) was unlikely to be the veteran, too.

d) Eli's death totally incriminates me. (If I wasn't me, I'd suspect me now).
So by killing Eli and getting me lynched they'd get two-for-the-price-of-one.

e) They are so secure by now that they enjoy a little game of cat and mice by killing our prime suspect.

I cannot blame anyone who wants to lynch me. All I do is ask you to consider how likely the reflection outlined under a) to (especially) d) is. If you were Guardian would you consider acting this way?

I am at present totally clueless and obviously doubt everything I said earlier. Papagena? Why Papagena?
I am surprised that Rose still trusts me. Why? I probably wouldn't.
She puts forward Papagena, sticking by our previous plan. Why? Even as an arch-Guardian she could have turned round and blamed me without arousing any suspicion.

Miss Mason Smudgeson - can I have a strong cup of tea, please? You are the only soul here whom one can trust absolutely.

Dai, I agreed with your findings above (and you agreed with my initial assumption of a mason-defector being nonsense) - but can't I still suspect you on the basis of something else? In this game some Guardian is bound to agree with some of the goodies some of the time. I look for arguments that confuse by pretending to prove more than they can and treat them as suspicious. Eli's death shows how much of our "analysis and reflections" are glorified guesswork... [Frown]

Papagena is the only player whom many here suspected at various points. I did, Dai did, Rose did and Eli+ did.
I'd go for her again. Mind you, it would still leave me clueless about the other Guardian(s) the following day (if there is one).

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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

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Sylvander
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Sorry, I only see now that Dai already made my point a) about the doctor not protecting Eli.

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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

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Autenrieth Road

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I think Seth is probably a Guardian too, along with Papagena. Then I'm left with a tossup between Madoc, Dai, and possibly Arsene for the third Guardian. But I'm still inclined to trust Arsene, because of how he reasons out loud.

On rereading the thread I see that Dai has not been as quiet as I thought. I'm still undecided on him though.

Madoc's lengthy reasoning had me thinking he was innocent, but maybe he is a Guardian and his schtick of "how would I think if I were a Guardian" is cleverly designed to allow him to post at length using the reasoning he is most familiar with.

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Truth

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Autenrieth Road

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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Why was Eli killed by the guardians?  We knew he was innocent, but if enough people accused him of being the defector he could have been lynched.  If Rose and Beauregard had nominated him, three guardians could have joined them and they'd have lynched him.  So why kill him first?  An obvious answer: the guardians weren't sure of having three additional votes on top of Rose and Beauregard.  At least one of Beauregard and Rose is a guardian.

You're counting wrong.  There are only seven of us left in camp, so only four votes are required for a lynching.  So the Guardians would only need to count on one of the remaining four innocents to join them in hypothetically lynching Eli this round.

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Truth

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CuppaT
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But Eli is dead, so how can we be hypothetical about lynching him?

I am defenseless. I have stated my innocence before and need not keep reiterating it.

I am back to suspecting Arsene as a bothersome fly, though, and will nominate Rose Autenrieth as worthy of lynching. To me, she is suspicious. And, as it is attested that cats have nine lives, I seem to recall in a previous one that she was quite the friendly killer, whom I trusted to my demise. I am beginning to be more wary of her as this desert life plays on.

Y'all can vote for whom you please. But I think the ones who are acting nice are in cahoots with one another, Lt. Maddoc and Rose. The vocally vicious ones are more likely innocent.

[This poor post took more than an hour to do till I learned how to link, and so was mostly written before the last couple posts.]

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Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony

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Sylvander
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quote:
Originally posted by CuppaT:
I am back to suspecting Arsene as a bothersome fly, though, and will nominate Rose Autenrieth as worthy of lynching.

While it is not nice to compare Arsène to a bothersome fly (he is touchy, don't you know) I am going to forgive you on account of your youth and catness.
Maybe you are right and we need to think along entirely new lines. It is our last chance - why not take desperate measures?
My problem is - I cannot decide how to (dis)trust folk who hardly speak.

quote:
Originally posted by CuppaT:
[This poor post took more than an hour to do till I learned how to link, and so was mostly written before the last couple posts.]

I am rather impressed (also by the effort you put into finding a thread four years old!). I still do not know how to link to an individual post anywhere. Can you tell me, please? (In a strictly technical PM perhaps?) Or let me know where to find the information?

quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Dai apologises again for the misspelling. He would like to point out that the Great Red Cat goddess is also doing it.

Yes indeed. Can we lynch her afterwards perhaps?

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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

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Dafyd
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As Rose has pointed out, I was miscounting the number of people that the Guardians would have needed to lynch Eli. And I'm pretty certain that at least one of Rose or Madoc must be innocent, and they've both expressed criticisms of Eli. So the Guardians could have been near certain of getting four people to lynch him. There goes that theory.

Quick review of what I think we know.
1) Smudgeson is innocent.
2) At least one of Rose and Madoc is innocent. Possibly both are innocent, but they can't both be guardians.
3) At least one of Papagena and Beauregard is guilty. Possibly both. (In fact, quite apart from my previous reasoning, given that I'm innocent and given that at least one of Rose or Madoc must be innocent this must be true.)

Papagena's nomination of Rose must I think be viewed as a mistake. Going after Rose or Madoc at this stage is not playing the odds.
The odds strongly favour going after Beauregard or Papagena.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

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# 10509

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(crossposted)

quote:
Originally posted by CuppaT:
But Eli is dead, so how can we be hypothetical about lynching him?

What I meant was, Dai was proposing that the Guardians couldn't be sure of lynching Eli during the day, hence had to murder him at night.  And his reason was that the Guardians must be unsure of assembling 5 votes, and finally that must be because one of Beauregard or I is (am?) a Guardian.  I'm pointing out that the Guardians would have needed only 4 votes to lynch Eli if they'd murdered someone else and tried to lynch Eli today.  So, given that Dai was wrong in his count, it also destroys this particular argument that one of Arsene or I is a Guardian.

I'm not saying Arsene isn't a Guardian, but on balance I believe he's not.  And I'm sorry that by saying that I'll probably only confirm you in your belief that the two of us are in cahoots.  Not true.

Thanks for digging up that thread.  That was a work of art. [Big Grin]   It was also very hard because I was perpetually thinking very carefully:  have I posted too much?  Have I posted too little?  Have I said something to inadvertently cast suspicion where I don't want to?  It's much easier to be a Citizen, as I am this time, and just post as I wish.

[ 14. November 2010, 21:26: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged



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