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Source: (consider it) Thread: Circus: Mafia - the Valley of the Kings
Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
2) At least one of Rose and Madoc is innocent. Possibly both are innocent, but they can't both be guardians.

Why do you say this? (You happen to be right, in that I am a Citizen, but I wonder how you reached this conclusion.)

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
CuppaT
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[I knew that Mafia was in Limbo. (I hang out there a lot.) And the way to do it is in the recent Styx practice thread.]

CuppaT

--------------------
Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony

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Autenrieth Road

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I've been rereading Teufelchen's suggestions about Mafia, and he suggests that there be at least one more Mason than Mafia. So maybe there are only 2 Guardians here in Camp Sarastro. That would be nice! But I don't know if our benevolent Red Cat Goddess arranged things that way or not.

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Truth

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Sylvander
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:

I'm not saying Arsene isn't a Guardian, but on balance I believe he's not. And I'm sorry that by saying that I'll probably only confirm you in your belief that the two of us are in cahoots. Not true.

This I can confirm :-), alas. [Apart from the PM re linking to individual posts she kindly sent me. Ta muchly. Thx also to you, CuppaT!]

quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
As Rose has pointed out, I was miscounting the number of people that the Guardians would have needed to lynch Eli. And I'm pretty certain that at least one of Rose or Madoc must be innocent, and they've both expressed criticisms of Eli. So the Guardians could have been near certain of getting four people to lynch him. There goes that theory.

Quick review of what I think we know.
1) Smudgeson is innocent.
2) At least one of Rose and Madoc is innocent. Possibly both are innocent, but they can't both be guardians.
3) At least one of Papagena and Beauregard is guilty. Possibly both. (In fact, quite apart from my previous reasoning, given that I'm innocent and given that at least one of Rose or Madoc must be innocent this must be true.)

Papagena's nomination of Rose must I think be viewed as a mistake. Going after Rose or Madoc at this stage is not playing the odds.
The odds strongly favour going after Beauregard or Papagena.

As I said I am so confused I can no longer follow these reasonings. I suspected Rose earlier a little bit – but the basis of that broke away with Eli's innocence. I suspected Papagena – but on account of her silence which is weak. And Madoc and Seth are just as quiet.

All I can manage is a list of survivors (in the order they creep to mind):

Rose (Autenteith Rd)
Dai (Dafyd)
Papagena (CuppaT)
Arsène Beauregard [sic!] (Sylvander)
Lt Madoc (Ariston Astuanax)
Seth (fletcher Christian)
Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson (Smudgie)

quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Papagena's nomination of Rose must I think be viewed as a mistake. Going after Rose or Madoc at this stage is not playing the odds.
The odds strongly favour going after Beauregard or Papagena.

If that reasoning is sound I'd agree – but only because I know I am innocent. That does not help anyone else much, though [Smile]

I could stick with my ongoing suspicion of Papagena and vote to lynch her but if silence incriminates, can someone remind me why Madoc and Seth are not treated as more suspicious?

--------------------
A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
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Seth was quiet because he was thinking. Whoever the Guardians were, they had been quite happy to let Eli work away at pointing the finger at various citizens and letting us lynch them. Then all of a sudden he starts to point a finger at Arsene and the very same night he ends up dead.

I reckon that Eli was guessing just as much as any of us citizens were guessing, and we were happy to go along with his stabs in the dark. Unfortunately he did the Guardians a huge favour, but just before he copped it, he begins to point the finger of suspicion at Arsene, who then starts filling his boots before they have even grown cold after his death.He's doing the same thing, hoping we will all be stupid enough to go, 'oh yeah, let's do that' in the same way we have before and then end up killing yet another innocent. I nominate Arsene

*The real reason I have been quiet is cos I may have to go into hospital later this afternoon. So if I grow even more quiet it'll be cos I'm under the knife, but while I dream in anasthesia I shall think of this thread and hope I live and hope I have nominated a Guardian.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Eliab
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Overheard on the desert breezes:

"Let me get this straight - you're claiming to be one of mine and you still don't want to come with me to await the fulfillment of the Promise?"

"Not exactly, father, just not yet. I told the angel to wait..."

"It seems that you told the angel to ‘bugger off'..."

"Bugger off and wait. I want to see what happens."

"Listen, Eli, my son, don't mess me about. You're in on the absolute narrowest of margins. You spent your life accumulating money by lies and exploitation..."

"I was not lucky enough to be able to get rich by pimping my sister..."

"Point. Taken."

"I just want to see if I was right or wrong."

"You were wrong about many things - the recording angel has quite the list. And you were right - in the end and only just - about the one thing that matters: YHWH is God and He alone ... oh enough with the surprise, already. Of course I can say it. He calls Himself by my name, I call Him by His."

"But was I right or wrong about the Guardians?"

"Does it matter?"

"Does it matter whether it matters?"

"Oh have it your own way then! See it out to the end. We'll bag up the lot of you when it's all over. My life, what did I do to deserve such bloody stubborn descendants?"

[softly] "I'm sure the recording angel has quite the list."

--------------------
"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

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Dafyd
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Rose and Beauregard have both asked me about my three things I think we know.

1) Smudgeson is a mason:

She outed herself as one; Eli outed her as one. Eli was definitely a mason.
I don't believe that there are any mason-defectors.

2) At least one of Rose and Madoc is innocent (and maybe both):

Madoc nominated Rose in the first round. If they were both guardians, that would have been a huge risk to take. If Eli had voted for Rose rather than for McBride Rose would almost certainly now be dead. I don't think it makes sense for the guardians to risk lynching each other unless they're under pressure in some way. (If a guardian thinks that he or she is likely to be lynched in the next couple of turns anyway, then it does become worthwhile for them to try nominating another guardian to put people off the scent.)

3) At least one of Beauregard and Papagena is guilty (and maybe both):

If they're not guilty then this means that all the guardians voted as a block in the first round. It's much more likely that they would have split their votes. In addition, the first person they killed off - Champion - had voted the same way, so they would have been killing off their cover. I don't think the guardians would have left themselves exposed like that. The guardians want, as far as possible, to hide themselves among innocents.
(Also, if you accept my innocence, and I'm right about 1 and 2, then there aren't enough innocents left for both Papagena and Beauregard to be innocent.)
I don't think Beauregard's accusations of Papagena show that they're not both guilty: it was likely when he did that that at least one might be lynched within a couple of turns.

--------------------
we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Sylvander
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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I nominate Arsene

Not many people have the honour of being nominated twice in the same round [Smile]
I feel very dangerous. Unfortunately I am not. [Frown]

quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Madoc nominated Rose in the first round. If they were both guardians, that would have been a huge risk to take.

Sound convincing to me. But I do not know how to decide on which of these two it is.

quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
3) At least one of Beauregard and Papagena is guilty (and maybe both): If they're not guilty then this means that all the guardians voted as a block in the first round. It's much more likely that they would have split their votes.

Thanks for checking back on this. I cannot remember who voted what in round 1.
But it sounds right and convinces me that Papagena is guilty - and simply sticking to her strategy of maximum taciturnity.
But I have to say that I was absent with sunstroke in week 1. I voted "no lynching" by proxy before I even knew the nominees.

quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
I don't think Beauregard's accusations of Papagena show that they're not both guilty: it was likely when he did that that at least one might be lynched within a couple of turns.

That is not so convincing - when I first nominated her, neither of us was being suspected much. And neither of us came even close to being lynched in the next two days, so the likelihood you mention was not so great. If we were both Guardians it would have been an unnecesary risk to nominate her and to do so twice, don't you think?
Sorry to be pedantic, Dai, but I need to be (i.e. save myself) if we want to win. I have written so much here. Talking a lot is very hard for a Guardian who at least sometimes needs to say what he does not think and do so convincingly.
Apart from my being wrong in some votes, do you discover any inconsistencies, self-contradictions, undisclosed patterns of agreement with others in what I have been saying?

--------------------
A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

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tangent/

Hope your surgery went well (and wasn't anything horribly scarily major), fc.

/tangent

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Rent my holiday home in the South of France

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Hope your surgery went well (and wasn't anything horribly scarily major), fc.

Seconded.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
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All grand, back now. Thanks

--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894

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Well, now that one of us has officially dodged a bullet, I think it's time for another to face one. I'm not sure there's much left for me to say right now, as anyone I might possibly suspect has been nominated; though I've been absent for a bit longer than I'd like (the Captain always has Yet Another Urgent Task), I'm pretty sure that, come lynching time, I'll be a bit more vocal. No need to talk out of turn or at bad times, you know...

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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.

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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

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Time's up

Please cast your votes. You may vote for:

  • Papagena (CuppaT), nominated by Rose Autenrieth (Autenrieth Road)
  • Arsène Beauregard (Sylvander), nominated by Dai Mortal (Dafyd)
  • Rose Autenrieth (Autenrieth Road), nominated by Papagena (CuppaT)
  • no lynching

4 votes are required to secure a lynching.

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Rent my holiday home in the South of France

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Autenrieth Road

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I vote for Papagena, and I hope the other Citizens will join me.

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Ariston
Insane Unicorn
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Alright. I hate to do this, but Papagena? Your time's up. Part of this is because we can't afford a split vote at this hour, but also because, out of the candidates left alive, I think you to be the most likely to be out for my blood.
Most of this, I'll admit, is based on hunches. Yes, you've been accused of silence, but you're a cat-it's to be expected. What gives me pause about your paws, though, is how you've used your chances to defend yourself or accuse others. I'm assuming your Special Cat Powers give you insight into the minds of men and the hearts of ladies, but, by and large, we've never heard your thoughts about our fellow camp members, but rather simple protestations of innocence. This leads me to believe that you're afraid of making a revealing slip of the sandpaper tongue, thus revealing your true allegiance-or, since you already know who is innocent and who is guilty, there's no reason for you to try and decipher clues with us, nor search for patterns and odd behaviors! Those who already possess knowledge have no reason to seek it; those who want this answer to remain hidden should never aid those who search.

Thus, since you only began to help us once fingers started to point your way, I think you have something to hide. Though I'm sad it has to end this way for us, dear kitty, the truth of the matter is that I can't let any more throats be slit.

Goodbye.

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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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I'm afraid I'm still suspicious of Arsene

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Dafyd
Shipmate
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I think Beauregard has been acting less suspiciously in the last couple of rounds than Papagena; at least one innocent must have voted for Papagena already while Seth is pretty suspicious as well.
Papagena it is. Sorry kitty.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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CuppaT
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# 10523

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quote:
Originally posted by AristonAstuanax:
but, by and large, we've never heard your thoughts about our fellow camp members, but rather simple protestations of innocence. This leads me to believe that you're afraid of making a revealing slip of the sandpaper tongue, thus revealing your true allegiance-or, since you already know who is innocent and who is guilty, there's no reason for you to try and decipher clues with us, nor search for patterns and odd behaviors! Those who already possess knowledge have no reason to seek it; those who want this answer to remain hidden should never aid those who search.

The flaw here, of course, is that sometimes people (and cats) have no clue and nothing to say, and so say nothing. Most of you are good at bluffing. I am not, nor am I able to pull logical answers out of thin air. Hence, I am wary of everyone and have held my sweet little sandpapery tongue when I wanted, and talked also when I wanted. Hrumph.

I would dearly love to vote for Rose, but at this point it would kill me. I have also felt the urge, like BL, to vote for myself and be done with it. But sense prevails, as it usually does, and I cast my vote for Arsene, in hopes that the other few will, too.

[edited for boldness]

[ 18. November 2010, 20:29: Message edited by: CuppaT ]

--------------------
Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony

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Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
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Given that Arsene is one of the two left to vote (along with Miss Smudgeson), it is unlikely that he will be lynched.

Papagena, may I say that if you turn out to be innocent I will be very disappointed because it will mean that I am surrounded by Guardians whom I have no ability whatsoever to detect.

--------------------
Truth

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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153

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A chilling presence drifts over the sand seeking out M. Beauregard and Miss Smudgeson. Finding first one target, then the other, Eli pokes each hard in the spine with an insubstantial finger, and in a soundless voice hisses: "Go on - vote!"


The unwritten laws of the spirit world do not allow the shade to do more. Certainly Eli is powerless even to try to influence the way they should vote, and after a moment's thought, he finds that even if it were permitted, he would not wish to. If the Guardians are clever enough to succeed, then such is life. Eli has no thought of vengeance. He is, however, utterly consumed with a burning curiosity to see how this important, and final, chapter in his life will end.

--------------------
"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549

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Dai Mortal went back to the bar to drown his worries.
He decided to name the time at which he would pass out 'Friday afternoon'. The time at which he would wake up and find out what was happening he would designate 'Sunday evening'. In between he would be in a state he called 'away from keyboard'.

Knawing his knuckles.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153

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Eli Abrahams' ghost gives up on the futile attempt to poke Beauregard into action with his icy fingers, and sits, melancholy, on a low dune whiling away the interminable hours by constructing a clanking and highly fashionable tangle of iron chains out of ectoplasm. After painstakingly fitting the last link, he finds the Frenchman and lifts the whole mass to smite him mightily, but ineffectually, over the head.

Then he wanders off to Hyacinth's tea tent to curdle the milk.


[ 19. November 2010, 14:03: Message edited by: Eliab ]

--------------------
"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
# 10509

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Brrr, it's awfully cold out here. Is there a ghost walking or something? Has it kidnapped Arsene and Miss Smudgeson?

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Smudgie

Ship's Barnacle
# 2716

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Miss Smudgeson (slightly shocked that a fellow mason would curdle the milk) poured herself a refreshing cuppa.
Truth be told, she felt suspicious of both Arsene and Papagena.... and wasn't totally convinced of Rose's innocence either. But it was the cat who most concerned her. Far too quiet and devious, slipping unnoticed into dark corners and, it had to be said, stealing the best seats too.
Her vote would only have any value if she were to cast it for the cat anyway. Can you lynch a cat?
Hyacinth votes for Papagena

--------------------
Miss you, Erin.

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Sylvander
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# 12857

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Arsene dreamt he was in a hostel in Sutherland with a few minutes' access to the papyrus-less communication realm. And at just the right time to vote ,too!
He had left detailed instructions with the Great Cat to vote by proxy (thx for your assistance) which coincide directly with what he does now, i.e. follow Miss Smudgeson, the mason's vote (in time and in content).
So
PAPAGENA
it is. (Sorry, cannot find how to operate the rectangular brackets on this papyrus).
Fingers crossed it is the right thing to do.

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CuppaT
Shipmate
# 10523

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Poison. It was poison.
Someone, supposedly kindly, set out a bit of food in a low dish for the cat. One by one some folks slipped by and sprinkled something on the food. No one saw. Papagena ate it and died near the dish.
Poor cat. She truly was a citizen.

--------------------
Stand at the brink of the abyss of despair, and when you see that you cannot bear it any longer, draw back a little and have a cup of tea.
~Elder Sophrony

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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153

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Eli's ghost watches the camp carefully. Is that it? Are the Guardians now a majority? Did they win? Might there be a doctor and veteren still alive to give the camp a slender chance? And what manner of deity is going to come to collect the last essence of an innocent murdered cat?

The spirit gathers up the chains and drifts over to the small, furry body, and waits.


--------------------
"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
# 10509

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Arrrrrggggghhhhhhh!

Sorry Papagena.

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894

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Lieutenant Madoc had been drilling a picked contingent of his men. While the rest of the company waited in idleness, he had been preparing for this contingency—it would be a very determined Guardian indeed who could deal with the crack force he had assembled! Even if the Guardians and camp members were now equal, there was still some sliver of hope for tomorrow—and, failing that, the army would do its best to stave off any possible massacre.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Tonight's watch is going to be a lonely one without Papagena for company.

--------------------
“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.

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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

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You all seem to be getting on very nicely without me, but anyway -

Papagena 5 votes
Arsène Beauregard 2 votes.

The cat is lynched. She was, as she says, a citizen.

Night falls.

--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France

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Leetle Masha

Cantankerous Anchoress
# 8209

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From a fan:


[Tear] Papagena, R.I.P.

Posts: 6351 | From: Hesychia, in Hyperdulia | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
Smudgie

Ship's Barnacle
# 2716

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[tangent][i]Interestingly I find myself feeling really awful for being "virtually" responsible for the lynching of an innocent cat. With the innocent humans who died I felt far less guilt. Not sure what this says about me. [Hot and Hormonal] Must get a grip, Smudgie, must get a grip. It's all pretend really! [/tangent]

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Miss you, Erin.

Posts: 14382 | From: Under the duvet | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
# 10509

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[losing grip tangent, continued]
I dreamed last night that Smudgie was hosting the game and she sent me by accident an email identifying who the Guardians are. I wish!
[/losing grip tangent]

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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This is like waiting on a killer appearing in a horror film. Aggghhh....the tension is killing me.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

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Morning everyone.

The sun's up, it's getting hot already, and you are all alive and well (apart from the people who were already dead, obviously).

Nominations open.

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Rent my holiday home in the South of France

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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153

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Eli's shade hovers over the camp, rattling his chains omninously in the pale dawn. He tries a piercing howl for effect, and decides that that's more 'Banshee' than 'ghost-with-unfinished-business'. A low, anguished, moan would seem more in keeping. He tries one, and is quite pleased with the result.

Unsurprisingly, there seems to be no new addition to the spirit world, so he drifts off to see whether the Red Cat Goddess has collected the soul of Papagena.


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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"

Richard Dawkins

Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857

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Seems like the doctor did the right thing and the Guardians made their first mistake or rather we were lucky for the very first time in this darned game.
After the Papagena lynching I thought if this were chess anything other than resigning would be regarded as bad sport.

As it is we have a new lease of live and I have no clue what to do now, whom ot suspect. I felt rather sure about Eliab - and a little less about Papagena and both times got it wrong.

I trust you'll want to lynch me. But unfortunately this will still be a mistake.

I have an idea:
There are now six of us left (is it theoretically possible that there are more than two Guardians among the six?).

There must be one doctor, one mason (Smudgeson) and one innocent whom the doctor protected last night (the doctor knows who it is and that s/he is innocent as the Guardians tried to strike at him.

So are there three innocents out of six whom we could identify by giving away information about ourselves, mainly the doctor (saying who he is and whom he protected)? Unless the doctor protected Mason Smudgie in which case we and s/he would be none the wiser.

Can anyone think of a good way to use this knowledge so that it helps us to secure a 4-2 lynching vote rather than a hung vote?

I think if there are three Guardians we are doomed but if there are only two then an unmasking of ourselves would help us win even if the doctor gets killed the following night. Or am I making a mistake (I'm in haste here).

Let us discuss this before the doctor declares anyhting.

Ok, my time on internet is up.

Tata!

Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
# 10509

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Interesting thought. The 4th vote would come from the 4th innocent who would see the 3 declared innocents and know to go along with them.

Even if the Doctor protected Miss Smudgeson, would it be advantageous for the Doctor to declare himself? Then we would at least know 2 innocents.

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549

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Blast. Should have gone for my first instincts on Papagena/Beauregard.
On the other hand, well done the doctor.

Could Beauregard say why he's maintaining that there are only two guardians? That seems unlikely to me.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
# 10509

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There are six of us left. If there are three Guardians, they've won already. So we have to proceed as if there were two. Also, Teufelchen's 2006 recommendations for Mafia suggested at least one more Mason than Mafia, which is another argument in favor of two Guardians.

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549

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We could still win with three guardians assuming we have a veteran or vigilante and the doctor keeps lucky. That would require the doctor not to identify himself or herself, of course.
I'd be more enthusiastic about the two guardians idea if it didn't originate with Beauregard, about whom, for previously stated reasons, I am deeply suspicious.

I wish Smudgie would speak up. Talk about guardians keeping quiet - the person keeping the quietest is the known innocent.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
# 10509

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I had thought of the two Guardians idea earlier (about when Eli was murdered) -- I can't remember if I said anything at the time. Why are you suspicious of Arsene? And is there anyone else you suspect?

I suspect Madoc, and Seth (but not so much after Papagena turned out to be innocent). I could perhaps be persuaded to suspect Arsene, but if he's guilty then I stand in awe at his pyrotechnics of verbiage.

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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I suspect Arsene, because he tried to pick up the role of Eli pretty quickly after he died and then he immediately nominated an innocent. Like, that would have to involve serious bad luck if he was an innocent.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
# 10509

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I nominate Madoc . This is because, based on posting style, I think Madoc's "what would a Guardian think" pose would be easier for a Guardian to carry off than Arsene's "I'm thinking out loud."

At any rate, if Arsene is a Guardian, he must have an accomplice (I can't believe there's just one Guardian), and it seems as likely to be Madoc as anyone.

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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I don't follow your reasoning there. Can you expand?

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Why are you suspicious of Arsene? And is there anyone else you suspect?

As before, I think at least one guardian must have voted no lynching in the first round. And Arsene is the only one left. (I'd be more impressed by the torrent of verbiage argument if Smudgie weren't keeping so quiet.)
By process of elimination, the others must be Seth and either you (Rose) or Madoc.
Anyway, I strongly doubt that there's only two guardians. And if there's three of them they only need one innocent to vote for an innocent. Of course, if you and Beauregard are right about there being only two guardians I'd be making the wrong choice. Even so, I think the only way I'd consider voting for anyone other than no lynching this round is if Smudgie votes for someone and at least one person votes for someone else.

[ 25. November 2010, 11:04: Message edited by: Dafyd ]

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Autenrieth Road

Shipmate
# 10509

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Seth, I'm not sure what else to say about my reasoning.

Dai, I see what you're saying about Arsene. But I don't follow your "no lynching this round" argument. If there are three Guardians, and we don't lynch anyone, the most likely result is that the Guardians kill someone tonight. Then there are only five of us tomorrow, and the hypothetical three Guardians can lynch whomever they please, and kill the remaining innocent tomorrow night. Are you trusting in the existence of a Vigilante to happen to hit on a Guardian tonight?

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Truth

Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Yep, I feel it's too risky to have a 'no lynching' at this stage. If there are three guardians then we have lost if they get to kill someone in the night, haven't we?

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

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Whoops. I've realised I never set a time limit on this round. Call it tomorrow evening my time.

So far we have a nomination for Madoc from Rose - I am not sure if anyone has made a formal nomination against Arsène?

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Rent my holiday home in the South of France

Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857

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Three Guardians would simply make sure of a no-lynching by hung vote and then kill someone the following night. They can once more get unlucky but at the third attempt at the latest they'll hit the doctor who cannot protect himself.
So with 3 Guardians the game would already be over.
As it is I think we have lost in any case as I would lynch myself if I did not know better. I think I'll get lynched this round and then we've lost.
I have no idea who the two guardians might be. It might be possible to find clues in analysing past voting patterns. But like all others I am too lazy to do that.
I suspect I'll soon have to draw my hat to Rose, though [Biased] .

[ 25. November 2010, 19:26: Message edited by: Sylvander ]

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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509

Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007  |  IP: Logged



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