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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Circus: Mafia in St. Damian's, Oxford
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
The cat checks in from the middle of some protacted (whatever cats get up to when you're not watching) and is completely perturbed by the qwerty keyboard that has replaced her usual azerty ![[Help]](graemlins/help.gif) This might have to be fairly brief...
My feline intuition is that Mumblebore and Lucy are most likely both innocent. I think that the SCUM would therefore be quite happy to lynch either one. So I am most suspicious of those who voted for a lynching, putting both nominees in equal first place. If they are both innocent then the killers would be happy for either one of them to get lynched, and wouldn't care particularly which one it was.
Mumblebore's random picks are obselete after the first round, ISTM. You only pick randomly when there's nothing to sniff at, which is no longer the case. He is wrong about this game being won by chance. A little close analysis will show that it is usually won by *me* ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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An die Freude
Shipmate
# 14794
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Posted
Whereas I do think you, my dear cat, have a point in that if the pair accused yesterday are innocent then the SCUM should want them out, I'm not sure that this would lead to them voting solely for lynching. The past has shown, I believe, that it's just about as common as not that the SCUM would split their votes to avoid the limelight, or even all vote in one direction opposite to the one they'd prefer. If we look at the votes, we have Archibald St. George voting at a decisive moment for a lynching, and then Professor Heisen Berg at the standing 4-1 in the favour of no lynching, but with one more expected (the necrophilist Eliabach) to the lesser side, bringing it to 4-3. This might look suspicious, that's true, but is it enough? There was a silence on what way the rest of the votes would swing, that's true. This could be proof for their guilt, but is it proof enough?
If it's not those two and only those two, who is it, I suppose I'm asking. If the SCUM split their votes, it might seem likely that at least one of them (are we agreed on that there's probably two of them?) would save their vote until late in the voting, so as to be able to steer the vote only if it's a really tight call*, but most likely just hide in the numbers of a decided vote.
However, as always, this is only theory. People are conniving and rationalising creatures. It may well be that the reasoning is flawed because the SCUM tends to hide in the average and bland. Now, if only we could find someone who fits into all these categories...
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*In which case they'll be able to claim just as well as any of the previous several voters for their side that they were only acting in what they thought to be the best interest of the university.
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"I too am not a bit tamed, I too am untranslatable."
Walt Whitman
Formerly JFH
Posts: 851 | From: Proud Socialist Monarchy of Sweden | Registered: May 2009
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Professor Eliabach wipes away the excess unguent from Mr Meng’s body cavity and begins the painstaking task of clearing away the full specimen jars and stitching up the incisions. On the whole it was very considerate of the man to have expired in the snow. It kept everything nice and fresh.
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
But the good thing was he now had to nominate that annoying Fiend PHB as he is affectionately known: "Prof Heisen Berg, step forward to be nominated. No need to thank me, it's alright, Everybody deserves their place in the limelight now and then. Yours is now."
One hates to acquire a reputation as a pedant, dear boy, but sadly, and once again, I feel honour bound to inform you that if the random number was, as it appears to have been, “6”, then that would imply the nomination of Jeremiah Ferrer-O'Hocher (jfh), because that particular gentleman (and you really must defer to me on these matters, I am after all the expert) is NOT YET DEAD. Therefore you need not select his next neighbour, nor the next neighbour of the unfortunate Mr Meng, whose number was certainly up in the colloquial sense, but not in your convoluted selection process. You can nominate the man himself.
That is the random nomination if we can do no better. I hope we can.
I have considered carefully whether old Mumbledore would be more likely to have proposed is, frankly, quite insane scheme if he were guilty or innocent. On balance I think that, if he were guilty, he would at least have made fewer embarrassing errors in implementing it. On the other hand, it is at least vaguely possible that the Professor took a gamble on the random nomination generator, and is now trying to shield a bad result by (twice) getting the nomination wrong. That doesn’t sound very like Mumbledore to me, it must be said. I think it more likely that the killers simply ignored his nonsense, and he’s innocent.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Imaginary Friend
Real to you
# 186
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
The person acting most like I would expect a member of the mafia to act is Prof Heisen Berg.
"Well now, it's one thing to put forward an unfounded and, frankly, insulting nomination. But to do so without a single scrap of evidence in your favor is really quite obscene. Pray tell: in what way have I been acting as a member of the SCUM might? I would contend that I have only been acting in such a way as to bring those scoundrels out into the light. It may be that you don't agree with my motives, but that does not mean that I am in league with the rogues.
"But perhaps you are? In wishing to implicate an innocent man you are walking a thin line between respectability and notoriety. Perhaps you should also share the stand with me and we can see who survives the harsh light of public scrutiny. I can assure you: my conscience is clear and I am confident that I can take my case to a public vote.
"I therefore nominate Mr. Dai A. Logge for lynching."
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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough
Posts: 9455 | From: Left a bit... Right a bit... | Registered: May 2001
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
A thought occurs - is there really any reason not to nominate everyone?
Normally, that is, in lesser colleges, that would mean a real risk of splitting the vote, but here all in means is more work for Harold organising the results.
It will give us a lot of data to analyse, probably too much for most of us, but if we are (against my advice) considering a 'not lynching' strategy to maximise Morse's viability, then it gives him a easy and inconspicuous way to tell us whom he has cleared: they are the bottom of his preference list. The real risk of not lynching to assist a detective is that he might die before revealing anything at all. This method would avoid that risk. (For clarity, I don't wish to avoid lynching. I would like something to analyse once the detective is dead. But if I am over-ruled, I would want to play the no lynching strategy well rather than poorly).
I can't say I've thought through all the implications. These murders would, of course, have to occur at a pivotal moment of conjunction, and I am necessarily engaged on urgent other business, but I offer it up now for your great minds to consider.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
Pray tell: in what way have I been acting as a member of the SCUM might? I would contend that I have only been acting in such a way as to bring those scoundrels out into the light.
You've been talking about the need to lynch people, but you haven't actually put yourself on the line by making a spontaneous nomination of your own. Trying to get a lynching by piggybacking on other people's nominations seems to me classic SCUM behaviour. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean every one who does it is SCUM.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Poor Hart, now I and Eliabach have put up bold printed nominations which aren't really nominations. Can you cope if I nominate not Chelley but JFH (O'Hocher) in line with the lottery?
Nominating everybody sounds like fun and the kind of absurd intervention I tried to introduce with my random thingy. And indeed allows the detective to easily hide his information.
Apologies all round - it is a bit of a game-spoil if a player visibly pays no attention at all. I am currently rather preoccupied with something else and while the Ship is a welcome distraction my thoughts are constantly elsewhere as I type.
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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Chelley
Ship's Old Boot
# 11322
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Posted
Miss Chelley was feeling rather confused as she sorted out the shelves of poetry in the library... but she smiled all the same as she saw the college cat come padding through the reading tables and find a comfortable spot near one of the stained glass windows. The dim sunlight laid dappled blues across Felis's white coat and the librarian turned back to her tasks and continued musing to herself.
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"I love old things, they make me feel sad."
"What's good about sad?"
"It's happy for deep people!"
Sally Sparrow to Kathy - Doctor Who
Posts: 2870 | From: Wonderland, UK | Registered: Apr 2006
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Poor Hart, now I and Eliabach have put up bold printed nominations which aren't really nominations.
Actually, mine was meant as a nomination. On this voting system, I don't see any harm in over-nominating, and if some people wanted a purely random guess then if you weren't going to put one up, I might as well.
By way of advanced notice, unless I'm persuaded by someone of intellectual stature that nominating everyone would be a mistake, I'm currently thinking of doing just that. I haven't yet had the analytical time to propose a most-likely suspect, and no one has yet made a very persuasive case, and the advantage of having everyone votable-for is that it allows Morse an inconspicuous way of signalling to us (once he's dead) who he investigated last night.
And, on the matter of full disclosure, some joker has filled my stylus with embalming fluid, so it doesn't look like I'll be voting today.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
Reasons for not nominating everybody:
It makes a lot of work for the moderator.
It quietens down the arguments over who got nominated and why.
I think it also makes the voting system less intuitive and transparent.
I don't think that second reason has much going for it: we'd still want to have a phase in which we all announced who we thought should be for it and why we're clearly innocent. And as you say, the chance to send signals using a long slate might be useful. So basically, it's up to Hart to decide what his maximum limit on nominations is.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Gwai
Shipmate
# 11076
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Posted
Lucy bustled in to Professor Eliabach's study with a cupcake and a nice hot cup of tea. "Oh, sir, please still try to vote, even if it won't be effective. You dons are a source of wisdom for servants like me. I would truly appreciate knowing how you want to vote." She curtsied and left shyly.
"Oh, I do hope I didn't overstep myself saying that. I bet I did. Oh my! I wonder if I should apologize. But perhaps that would be overstepping too! Maybe I'm just not wise enough to be here. It's all so much worry. I'd better calm down a bit with a bit of tea myself. I'll save the cakes for the dons though.
"All this murder! It's terrible for the digestion. It seems like we have to catch someone, and I don't see how we'll catch anyone if we don't try. But I haven't a clue who would do such a horrible thing, so I really don't know. I think Professor Mumbledore is a bit odd, but I really doubt he's a murderer. Professor Eliabach is definitely disturbing, but I can't tell much about him. He seems honest enough, but how would a servant like me know! I don't see him relaxed. Felis Rufa has been awfully quite on details for herself, but she has already stated she's a busy cat, so maybe that's all it is. I really can't tell anything, I swear, Professor Eisen Berg and Archibald St. George both seem a bit suspiciously randomly bloodthirsty to me, but then I can't wager that amounts to much either. Who wouldn't want to kill the murderers when death is on the line. Oh my, I just don't know. I guess I should get to washing up, and stop bothering about things I can't change. Oh, but where did I accept the promotion instead of going to work in my home town where I would see my mam!
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A master of men was the Goodly Fere,
A mate of the wind and sea.
If they think they ha’ slain our Goodly Fere
They are fools eternally.
Posts: 11914 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
The cat returns from her absence (no thanks to the *****s at Air France who are on strike and have given her a VERY stressful journey home ![[Mad]](angryfire.gif) ) and feels rather confused. She’s only a cat after all. Could we please have a confirmation of exactly who has been nominated?
I think Mumblebore is a) probably innocent and b) not very bright. “Nominate completely at random without paying any attention to the behaviour of the individual concerned” is, as Eliabach says, an insane strategy. I can’t see how it’s possibly in the interests of the innocent.
The main reason I can see for not nominating everyone is that Harry’s spreadsheet only has four spaces on it and I’m not good enough at maths to work out any more possibilities without it. ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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Chelley
Ship's Old Boot
# 11322
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Posted
Miss Chelley had moved on to the 'Renaissance' shelf after dealing with Poetry but even with time to think there were some rather confusing whispers and accusations going around and she tried to make sense of them...
Mumblebore had leapt to nominate that she be lynched for the killing, but apparently by means of a 'lucky' number, or not so lucky number for her it would seem. But in the same breath he declared he thought her innocent.
And then having been challenged about his random number choice, the Mumbling Professor had decided to also, or perhaps instead (the librarian wasn't quite sure), accuse Prof Heisen Berg because his random number was the 'right' one?
But then Mr. Dai A. Logge wanted to put someone up for lynching to go alongside Mumblebore's random choice... and nominated Prof Heisen Berg who was already the random choice.
And then prof Eliabach came along and accused O'Hocher (apparently also randomly but now the right random choice instead of the wrong random choice?). But then Eliabach was also thinking about nominating everyone else too?
And then Prof Heisen Berg came along and in a seeming retaliation for being accused, nominated his accuser Dai A. Logge!
Miss Chelley wasn't much clearer having turned these things over in her mind, but she had a few more piles of books to get away before she retired to her rooms for the evening and the activity would allow her a bit more time to think.
Though she did just start to wonder if they'd all, in fact, gone mad?!
[ 01. November 2011, 17:21: Message edited by: Chelley ]
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"I love old things, they make me feel sad."
"What's good about sad?"
"It's happy for deep people!"
Sally Sparrow to Kathy - Doctor Who
Posts: 2870 | From: Wonderland, UK | Registered: Apr 2006
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Chelley
Ship's Old Boot
# 11322
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
The cat returns from her absence (no thanks to the *****s at Air France who are on strike and have given her a VERY stressful journey home ) and feels rather confused.
Hmmmm if Felis was just returning from a trip to France (quite impressive for a college cat) then who was the mystery cat that had spent the afternoon curled up under the window in the library??
![[Paranoid]](graemlins/paranoid.gif)
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"I love old things, they make me feel sad."
"What's good about sad?"
"It's happy for deep people!"
Sally Sparrow to Kathy - Doctor Who
Posts: 2870 | From: Wonderland, UK | Registered: Apr 2006
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
There is no limit on the number of people who can be nominated. There is the time limit. However, I am going to set a limit that each resident of the college may only nominate once per day. If there are more than three nominees, a new spreadsheet will be prepared. For the record, the current nominees are:
Dai A. Logge (Dafyd) -- nominated by Prof. Heisen Berg (imaginary Friend)
Prof. Heisen Berg (iF) -- nominated by Dai (Dafyd)
Jeremiah Ferrer-O'Hocher (JFH) -- nominated by Prof. Eliabach.
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Hart:
There is no limit on the number of people who can be nominated. There is the time limit. However, I am going to set a limit that each resident of the college may only nominate once per day.
[OOC] Can I make a request that that be put into effect as from tomorrow? I have been RL busy recently, and have not yet decided if I wanted to accuse anyone. My nomination of JFH was made on the assumption that it wasn't using a limited option - I wouldn't (necessarily) have committed myself to it if it meant I couldn't nominate anyone else. [/OOC]
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
Upon reflection, it doesn't make much sense to allow people to express alternative preferences in voting, but not nominating. No limit on nominations. If people don't like how many people someone's nominating, they're free to kill them. If it takes me a little longer to get the spreadsheet out to people, we'll have correspondingly longer for voting.
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Let’s see if this works for a round, then. I really don’t care about giving Harold extra work, and I think that anyone whose analysis I will be influenced by will be able to cope with it. It makes voting less transparent, but for one turn at least, it eliminates tactical voting and allows everyone to rank everyone else in the true order in which they suspect them. Allowing the detective to signal results swings it for me, because otherwise I doubt he’ll declare himself with only an erratic infirmarian for protection until it is too late.
Therefore, to the extent that they haven’t been nominated already, and in the approximate order that I suspect them, I nominate:
Archibald St. George (Ariston Astuanax) – who has been suspiciously quiet
Dai A. Logge (Dafyd) – who is devious and clever and plausibly guilty
Prof Heisen Berg (Imaginary Friend) – because Dai suspects him, and if Dai is innocent, he’s worth listening to
Jeremiah Ferrer-O'Hocher (JFH) – because Sod’s law might apply and the insane random pick might be correct
Dyllis Smudgetta (Smudgie) - whom I have no real reason to suspect
Lucy (Gwai) - whom I have no real reason to suspect
Felis Rufa (la vie en rouge) - whom I have no real reason to suspect
Miss Chelley (Chelley) - whom I have no real reason to suspect
Mrs Barbara Layman (Banner Lady) - whom I have no real reason to suspect
Professor Mumblebore (Sylvander) – can’t believe he’d make so many mistakes in proposing a scheme if guilty
Ernst Viktor Eliabach (Eliab) – the only one of whose innocence I can be assured.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
Well, now everyone's been nominated, we might as well start voting. Please number your preferences (1 = most like to lynch). You can rank as many or as few members of the college as you like, and you can tie people.
A new spreadsheet will be emailed out 8am Wednesday (EST) and you have until 8am Friday (EST) to vote.
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
it eliminates tactical voting
This it does not. No voting system eliminates tactical voting(*). It is harder to rig the system without understanding it.
(*) not quite true: for example, no tactical voting is required in the Vetinari system (one man, one vote; Vetinari is the man and he has the vote).
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
Right:
1) Prof Heisen Berg (Imaginary Friend) (bloodthirsty without target).
2) Archibald St George (AristonAstuanax) (Eliabach is right: quieter than usual).
3) Ernst Viktor Eliabach (Eliab) (also quieter than usual)
4) Jeremiah Ferrer O'Hocher (JFH)
5) Professor Mumblebore (Sylvander).
6) TESS
7=) Lucy (Gwai); Miss Chelley (Chelley); Dyllis Smudgetta (Smudgie); Felis Rufa (la vie en rouge)
8) Barbara Layman (Banner Lady)
9) Dai A Logge (Dafyd)
Note to other voters: please put in a second last place (in the case above: Banner Lady) - if the detective does so to signal someone's innocent we don't want him or her to stick out like a sore thumb as a result.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894
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Posted
The wine fellow digs himself out of a pile of God-knows-what in the cellar.
"Been busy! Can't lynch! Help! Don't kill anyone without me! Can't talk! Help! HELP!!"
*CRASH*
"Don't worry, nothing important broke, maybe just a bone or two."
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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.
Posts: 6849 | From: The People's Republic of Balcones | Registered: Jan 2006
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Gwai
Shipmate
# 11076
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Posted
Lucy rubs her head and frowns. "If I survive this, I am definitely asking for a temporary leave of absence. Either I am going crazy or this is far past what a poor woman should have to put up with. I cannot believe I am even thinking of making a list of who should be lynched. God have mercy on my soul!"
1) Prof Heisen Berg (Imaginary Friend) (Professor Dai Logge has a point)
2) Felis Rufa (la vie en rouge) (I don't trust people who don't give details)
3) Archibald St George (AristonAstuanax) (Much different than usual, but may well just be real life)
4) Ernst Viktor Eliabach (Eliab) (Though if he doesn't submit votes this round, he will be much higher in my votes in the future.)
5) Barbara Layman (Banner Lady) (Not sure)
6) TESS
7=) Lucy; Miss Chelley (Chelley); Dyllis Smudgetta (Smudgie); Dai Logge (Dafyd)
8) Professor Mumblebore (Sylvander) (Strange, but not guilty, I say)
9) Lucy (Gwai)
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A master of men was the Goodly Fere,
A mate of the wind and sea.
If they think they ha’ slain our Goodly Fere
They are fools eternally.
Posts: 11914 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Lucy rubs her head and frowns. "If I survive this, I am definitely asking for a temporary leave of absence. Either I am going crazy or this is far past what a poor woman should have to put up with. I cannot believe I am even thinking of making a list of who should be lynched. God have mercy on my soul!"
1) Prof Heisen Berg (Imaginary Friend) (Professor Dai Logge has a point)
2) Felis Rufa (la vie en rouge) (I don't trust people who don't give details)
3) Archibald St George (AristonAstuanax) (Much different than usual, but may well just be real life)
4) Ernst Viktor Eliabach (Eliab) (Though if he doesn't submit votes this round, he will be much higher in my votes in the future.)
5) Barbara Layman (Banner Lady) (Not sure)
6) TESS
7=) Lucy; Miss Chelley (Chelley); Dyllis Smudgetta (Smudgie); Dai Logge (Dafyd)
8) Professor Mumblebore (Sylvander) (Strange, but not guilty, I say)
9) Lucy (Gwai)
Did you mean to list JFH instead of Lucy in the 7-block?
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Chelley
Ship's Old Boot
# 11322
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Posted
Miss Chelley had been making lists and rearranging names. It was the suspiciously quiet ones that caused her the most difficulty... first she put them high on her list because that quietness made her suspicious, and then she started again and put them low down because their quietness also made her wonder if they were 'specials' keeping quiet for self-preservation. And then she made another list with the ones she instinctively felt suspicious of at the top, but having done that she crossed them out again as her track record for getting things right by instinct wasn't very high. Oh dear. This might take a while.
Miss Chelley put the kettle on the stove to make some tea...
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"I love old things, they make me feel sad."
"What's good about sad?"
"It's happy for deep people!"
Sally Sparrow to Kathy - Doctor Who
Posts: 2870 | From: Wonderland, UK | Registered: Apr 2006
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Note to other voters: please put in a second last place (in the case above: Banner Lady) - if the detective does so to signal someone's innocent we don't want him or her to stick out like a sore thumb as a result.
Seconded. THIS IS IMPORTANT.
For those that have been paying attention, I have been quite extraordinarily busy with other important matters at present, which would account for my (relative) quiet.
And I will not be voting, because I have been the victim of some idiot's attempt at humour. You may take my list of nominees as indicative of voting preferences, had I been at liberty to express them.
[OOC]For Hart's benefit - this post is a formal 'no vote'[/OOC]
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894
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Posted
"Of course I have a concussion, and a broken finger to boot!"
"Had a concussion, sir."
"No, have. See, I have a bump right here on my head. Don't tell me that's not a sign of having a concussion!"
Archie was back to being his usual hypochondriac self. Any accident always brought out a litany of injuries, but such was the price of having a good wine fellow. The fact that most of the "gushing rivers of blood" turned out to be scratches and spilled wine . . .
"Oh, there's a vote. Dear me, you all do seem eager to cause me injury! A poor working man with an endowed fellowship does attract some enemies, even though he's been stuck in the wine cellar, out of shouting range temporarily—please, take that noose away from my neck! I do fear it would chafe fearfully, so put it away before someone gets hurt!
"Alright, I've looked over the arguments. You're right, some people are acting very suspiciously, or, at the very least, are protesting a tad much.
1. Prof. Heisen Burg—Methinks the lady doth protest too much. We may have a lucky strike here.
1. Mr. Dai A. Logge—Of course, that "random" nomination might not have been so random.
3. Felis Rufa—I'm always suspicious of that one—she hides her guilt so very well. The kitty always seems to have something up her collar—has someone checked for a "made in Cambridgeshire" engraving on her bell?
4. TESS
5. Everyone I haven't mentioned
6. Ernst Eliabach—Yes, he's being strange. E.V.E. is always being strange. Perhaps he's finally learned that spouting "clever plans" is a good way to get yourself lynched.
7. Me, Archibald St. George. I couldn't kill anyone—too much blood, not enough wine, all that struggly bit. Might suffer a grievous flesh wound.
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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.
Posts: 6849 | From: The People's Republic of Balcones | Registered: Jan 2006
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An die Freude
Shipmate
# 14794
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Posted
Let's think this through. I fear we might be missing something. There are two chief suspects, a few supporting suspects and a whole bunch of silent audience that seems to be supposed to do the voting while some of the more active ones fight it out on stage and in discussions. I think we're missing that they are people too, with personal goals and struggles and reasons that we are not aware of.
I'm talking about Dyllis Smudgetta, who has been mostly silent but who voted last of all. Her vote is unintelligible since it was already set. Her silence is sadly not of the speaking variety.
However, I'm also talking about Miss Chelley, Lucy and Mrs Layman, all seemingly confused and who all voted for TESS without stating any major reason to in the first round.
I'm talking about the fact that these are all listed mainly as a mass in the post-TESS stage in the votes so far cast. I'm not trying to bluster it all away by splitting the notion of suspects, but rather I want to point to the fact that these go largely unsuspected - which has usually been where true crooks have been found in the past. Rabbits are as dull as the earth in their plumage. The birds you want in your garden are full of song and colour.
I don't think these people are all guilty, but I do think that they are to prefer before TESS. It's too late for TESS. Someone has to be at the top of the list.
I maintain suspicious of the idea that the SCUM would inherently try to get a lynching from the start. Dai A. Logge immediately stepped up on the no-side, in his first post following the murder of prof. Raphsom. I don't know what to make of this, but I know I sure don't trust him for it. Then he's the first to nominate for the second round, bar Mumblemore's presaged lottery nomination. He does have a point about prof. Heisen Berg, however. Yet I can't tell who I find the most suspicious.
1. Dai A. Logge (Dafyd) and prof. Heisen Berg (iF) (Explanation above.)
2. Barbara Layman (Banner Lady) (delving in shadows and putting forth names without real arguments to back it up - stirring about muck for no visible reason), Felis Rufa (La vie en rouge) (Mysterious. Beware of mysterious cats.*)
3. Archibald St. George (AristonAstuanax) (Silent, different from usual appearance), prof Eliabach (Eliab) (Silent and mysterious. One to watch.).
4. Miss Chelley (Chelley) (Saying things, but not as full of suspicion as usual. Nothing to go on.), Lucy (Gwai) (Voted recently with descriptions of why. Still unclear to me, though.)
5. Mumblemore (Sylvander) (Talkative and crazy, just as usual. Probably innocent or SCUM. Same odds for him as for anyone randomly picked to be guilty, in my view.)
6. TESS.
7. Dellis Smudgetta (Smudgie) (Demure and careful. Just as expected and usual.)
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"I too am not a bit tamed, I too am untranslatable."
Walt Whitman
Formerly JFH
Posts: 851 | From: Proud Socialist Monarchy of Sweden | Registered: May 2009
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Banner Lady
Ship's Ensign
# 10505
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Posted
Mrs Layman heard the letterbox flap clang, and saw that there was another official envelope addressed to her on the mat. With a sinking heart she saw it was yet another voting slip.
It wanted her to check off those she thought might be SCUM.
"I don't know about being SCUM,' she thought; 'but I'm reasonably sure all the professors except mine are rather insane. Why, they are all still arguing about this new-fangled voting system.'
The fact that the college cleaner had been killed, still rankled with Barbara. She worried about her husband's working conditions now, all the more. 'I don't like dirt,' she said to the nightingale. 'And I don't like arguments.' But if a few more professors were voted off the establishment, then perhaps Professor Layman might have a better chance at becoming the new Master.
1.Prof.H.Berg/Mr.D.Logge
2. Prof. Mumblebore/Prof. Eliabach
3. J.F.O'Hocher
4. Felis Rufa/Miss Chelley
5. Archibald St.George
6. Miss Dyllis/ Miss Lucy
7.TESS
'Yes,' she said, looking at it. 'I think in order of importance, this is right. The professors are far less necessary at the moment than those who put food and wine on the table. We could be here for quite some time yet.'
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Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.
Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Vote in the following order:
Smudgie - Dyllis Smudgetta (cook)
a vie en rouge - Felis Rufa (cat!)
Eliab – Prof Eliabach
Ariston Astuanax - Archibald St. George (wine fellow)
Dafyd - Mr. Dai A. Logge (Philosophy scholar)
Chelley - Miss Chelley (Librarian)
JFH - Jeremiah Ferrer-O'Hocher (gardener)
Gwai - Lucy (head cook)
Banner Lady - Mrs Barbara Layman (Prof Layman's wife)
Imaginary Friend - Prof Heisen Berg (Physics lecturer)
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
I don't know what Lucy means about me giving a lack of detail. I thought I'd been explaining myself mostly. And chasing a mouse all the way to France is rather time-consuming, you know.
More importantly, I think Dai is innocent. Here's 'cause why: Dai has provided important and useful advice about how the innocent can/should help the detective. If he was a murderer, I doubt he would have done this, because I can't see any way it would be in his own best interest. He might have noticed, but I think he'd be using this advice against us, not in our favour.
I see the argument for suspecting Heisenberg, but I think the argument for suspecting Archibald is better, and since Archibald voted for Heisenberg in first place, I think they're rather unlikely to be in it together.
Therefore:
1 Archibald St. George - voted in the first round to lynch no matter who, has it in for me for no adequately explained reason. Voted for Dai, who I also believe to be innocent (admittedly, so has just about everyone, which I suppose is the flaw in this argument)
2 Jeremiah Ferrer O'Hocher, Lucy, Dyllis, Miss Chelley, Mrs. Layman - I don't think any of them has done anything particularly incriminating yet, but they're all unknown quantities and one of them might well be guilty
7 Eliabach - for the time being I incline to probably not, but you never know, and Mumblebore - also probably not but a loose cannon and behaving unpredictably
9 Heisen Berg
10 TESS
11 Dai
12 Felis
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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Banner Lady
Ship's Ensign
# 10505
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Posted
'Oh dear,' said Barbara to herself, I appear to have left one name off my voting slip. Carefully she added in next to TESS, her own name.
7. TESS/Mrs.Layman.
Then she put it on the hall table for Pike to take back to the butler.
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Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.
Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005
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Imaginary Friend
Real to you
# 186
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Posted
"Friends, enemies, fellow college members, I see that my protestations have largely been in vain. It may well be that my fate is already sealed, although the intricacies of this voting system make it difficult for me to know for sure.
"Hence, in the pure interests of self-preservation, I shall vote as follows. Please note that these votes do not indicate any specific thoughts or feelings about the individuals involved, they are purely designed to keep neck out of that noose."
1. Archibald St. George.
2. Dai A. Logge (Dafyd).
3. Felis Rufa (la vie en rouge).
4. Ernst Viktor Eliabach (Eliab).
5. Professor Mumblebore (Sylvander).
6. TESS
7 equal. Jeremiah Ferrer-O'Hocher (JFH), Dyllis Smudgetta (Smudgie), Lucy (Gwai), Miss Chelley (Chelley), Mrs Barbara Layman (Banner Lady).
12. Prof Heisen Berg (Imaginary Friend).
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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough
Posts: 9455 | From: Left a bit... Right a bit... | Registered: May 2001
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Chelley
Ship's Old Boot
# 11322
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Posted
1. Archibald St. George
2. Smudgetta
3. Prof Heisen Berg
4. Barbara Layman
5. Mumblebore
6. = Eliabach, Felis Rufa, Lucy, O'Hocher
7. TESS
8. Dai A. Logge
9. Miss Chelley
I had been suspicious of Dai A. Logge (Dafyd) to the point where he was going high on my list but the cat had a very good point here:
More importantly, I think Dai is innocent. Here's 'cause why: Dai has provided important and useful advice about how the innocent can/should help the detective. If he was a murderer, I doubt he would have done this, because I can't see any way it would be in his own best interest. He might have noticed, but I think he'd be using this advice against us, not in our favour.
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"I love old things, they make me feel sad."
"What's good about sad?"
"It's happy for deep people!"
Sally Sparrow to Kathy - Doctor Who
Posts: 2870 | From: Wonderland, UK | Registered: Apr 2006
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
Harold tabulated the votes so far and started analyzing. There is but one person left to vote who can (Ms Smudgetta). Currently, Heisen is winning all of his head-to-head match-ups. However, he is only winning against Archibold 5-4. Hence, a ballot that ranked Archibold equal or lower to Heisen will result in Heisen's death. No ballot being cast would have the same effect. A ballot ranking Archibold higher than Heisen, however, would result in a stalemate (no death today).
The cook has until 8am tomorrow morning (EST) to vote.
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
After running a few more scenarios in his head, Harold realized that the above was not necessarily true. It is possible for Archibold to be ranked higher than Heisen but for them not to tie because Archibold loses his head-to-head matchup with someone else whereas Heisen loses none, even though they would tie with each other.
However, here are what the results would be in two scenarios that Smudgetta can choose between if she wants to be sure of the outcome of her vote (she has no spreadsheet to try this herself):
Option A. For no lynching, rank Archibold first and everyone else second.
Option B. For Heisen to die, rank everyone equally.
If she doesn't vote, Heisen will be lynched.
I give no guarantees as to what other votes might do.
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Imaginary Friend
Real to you
# 186
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Posted
"For the record, the non-SCUM will live to regret it if they allow me to be lynched. Don't say I didn't warn you."
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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough
Posts: 9455 | From: Left a bit... Right a bit... | Registered: May 2001
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
If that's a bluff by Prof Heisen Berg, it's a convincing one. Is there any way in which Dyllis can vote that will result in Archibald St George getting lynched?
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
For that matter, is it possible for me to reverse the order of my top two votes to:
1) Archibald St George
2) Prof Heisen Berg
?
Both Eliabach and Felis Rufa have expressed strong suspicions of St George. At the moment, I'd much rather see what happens if we lynch St George before we lynch Heisen Berg.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894
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Posted
Now wait just a minute here! Again, put away that dreadful rope! First, if that's a convincing bluff, then I'm a no-account drinker of cheap gin, sir! I can very much assure you that my life is of at least as much value as any other Honest Oxonian, and quite possibly more—after all, who will provide you with expert knowledge of wine, and those who drink it, when I'm gone?
Second, I suppose my suspicion of the Kitty is this: she's famously inscrutable. Time and experience have shown that, perhaps more than the rest of us, she's hard to read; her behaviors are so perfectly balanced between the suspicious and the unremarkable as to be the epitome of Felinity. If I thought we should toss her over the college wall to the townies, I would have placed her higher in my rankings; as it is, though, I'm going to be suspicious of her until proven otherwise. She may be innocent, she may be guilty, but we'll never be able to tell based on her behaviors. If our good would-be Inspector is reading this, I'd suggest checking up on her.
Third, this late push to have me raised from my cellar to dangling somewhere above the quad . . . I suspect SCUM influence. While early posts were divided (more or less) between Profs. Berg and Logge, the latest ones have been unanimous in having my name at the top. What's more, I notice that Miss Smudgetta has risen to prominence from the ranks of the unsuspected to topping the list of Mumblebore and coming in #2 for Miss Chelley—with no explanation given at all.
This, ladies, gentlemen, and other assorted beings, is something to watch, methinks.
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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.
Posts: 6849 | From: The People's Republic of Balcones | Registered: Jan 2006
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
For that matter, is it possible for me to reverse the order of my top two votes to:
1) Archibald St George
2) Prof Heisen Berg
?
Both Eliabach and Felis Rufa have expressed strong suspicions of St George. At the moment, I'd much rather see what happens if we lynch St George before we lynch Heisen Berg.
Votes, once cast, cannot be changed.
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Imaginary Friend
Real to you
# 186
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Posted
So, it is down to the cook.
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"We had a good team on paper. Unfortunately, the game was played on grass."
Brian Clough
Posts: 9455 | From: Left a bit... Right a bit... | Registered: May 2001
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Chelley
Ship's Old Boot
# 11322
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Posted
[OOC]: Apologies for the rather stark list, life is a bit mad at the moment and decided that getting a list in quick in the bit of time I had yesterday was better than no list at all! Kitchen and various walls being knocked out at home and trying to get all the usual work stuff done while living on a building site has been first priority! As it's my day off I'll post a bit more. I was going to try and say that in character but tying together being a late 19th century, college dwelling, librarian wasn't easy to link with having a late 20th century kitchen knocked out! [/OOC]
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"I love old things, they make me feel sad."
"What's good about sad?"
"It's happy for deep people!"
Sally Sparrow to Kathy - Doctor Who
Posts: 2870 | From: Wonderland, UK | Registered: Apr 2006
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Chelley
Ship's Old Boot
# 11322
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Posted
AristonAstuanax:
quote:
The wine fellow digs himself out of a pile of God-knows-what in the cellar.
"Been busy! Can't lynch! Help! Don't kill anyone without me! Can't talk! Help! HELP!!"
*CRASH*
"Don't worry, nothing important broke, maybe just a bone or two."
Eliab:
quote:
And I will not be voting, because I have been the victim of some idiot's attempt at humour. You may take my list of nominees as indicative of voting preferences, had I been at liberty to express them.
Both of these would appear to be claims of being silenced by whatever the silencer is called. But AA went on to post votes for lynching. A bit puzzling? I had no problem accepting Eliab's claim as I'm sure he would've voted if he'd been able to having led the way with the nominations. Or was there a disaster in the wine cellar AA, that I missed and it wasn't actually a case of being silenced? ![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
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"I love old things, they make me feel sad."
"What's good about sad?"
"It's happy for deep people!"
Sally Sparrow to Kathy - Doctor Who
Posts: 2870 | From: Wonderland, UK | Registered: Apr 2006
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Chelley
Ship's Old Boot
# 11322
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Hart:
Option A. For no lynching, rank Archibold first and everyone else second.
Option B. For Heisen to die, rank everyone equally.
If she doesn't vote, Heisen will be lynched.
I give no guarantees as to what other votes might do.
Is it fair on those high on the lists (or on earlier voters) to give such a direct indication to the last voter of what their votes may do? Other voters didn't have the knowledge of exactly the outcome of their musings? Just a polite wondering.
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"I love old things, they make me feel sad."
"What's good about sad?"
"It's happy for deep people!"
Sally Sparrow to Kathy - Doctor Who
Posts: 2870 | From: Wonderland, UK | Registered: Apr 2006
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Chelley:
Is it fair on those high on the lists (or on earlier voters) to give such a direct indication to the last voter of what their votes may do? Other voters didn't have the knowledge of exactly the outcome of their musings? Just a polite wondering.
My dear librarian: Since the dawn of time, the butler of St. Damian's has had one role only: to serve the master. In period's such as this, a sad point in our history when there is no master, the role becomes uncharacteristically egalitarian -- when there is no master, the butler is to serve everyone.
When crises such as the current bru-ha-ha have erupted, since the days of the medieval butler Teufelchen, votes have been cast in public. Those voting later have, hence, had the advantage of knowing more precisely what effect their vote would have. If someone wishes to change that custom, it will be a later butler, not I. Under the voting system of our forebears (including our various forebears from the future), calculating what effect a vote would have was very easy. The current voting system makes that a little harder, so it is only fitting for the butler to share the results of his calculations (which anyone can make) with the whole group when available.
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Smudgie
Ship's Barnacle
# 2716
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Posted
A rather dazed Dyllis opens her eyes and gazes through the haze of lack of sleep. It had seemed an unavoidable task, cleaning the pantries so thoroughly after the honey jar had exploded on impact with the shelf she had been reaching to return it to, but it had left her utterly exhausted. (IRL an unplanned but unavoidable waking night shift between two day shifts took its toll on my thinking capacity for playing mafia. Sorry. Hopefully back now in full force)
She was reluctant to vote in any mass attempt to lynch people but had to admit that fear of further insurgence of SCUM was severely hampering her ability to get a good night's sleep.
1 Mumblebore (for his inability to appreciate a good cook when he meets her, for his incredibly weird voting methods, and for his tendency to live up to his name)
2 Eliabach and Archibald St. George who both seem to have been acting in an incredibly suspicious manner, especially the former whose wafflings are occasionally insightful but equally well honed to deceive.
3 Felis She's a cat. 'nuff said.
4 Lucy All that blather is clearly meant to distract us from a guilty conscience. And besides, she didn't offer to help with the honey at all.
5 TESS
6 Jeremiah Ferrer O'Hocher, Miss Chelley, Mrs. Layman, Heisen Berg, Dai (None of whom have given me any true reason to mistrust them... yet)
Dyllis would not be voting for herself. After all, she knew her own innocence. She wiped the last remnants of the honey off her fingers onto the voting paper and made her way back to the sanctuary of the kitchen fire for a snooze. Job well done.
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Miss you, Erin.
Posts: 14382 | From: Under the duvet | Registered: Apr 2002
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
Archibold and Heisen are the two players not to lose any head-to-head competitions (everyone else loses against at least someone). They tied with each other, 5-5. Hence, the vote is tied and no-one is lynched.
Night falls
I know some people aren't regularly on ship over weekends, so I'll give until 8am Monday morning (EST) for night actions. However, if I receive them all earlier, dawn will come earlier. I'll give until 8am Wednesday morning for nominations, or until everyone is nominated, whichever is earlier. Then, there'll be at least 48 hours for voting.
PM me your night actions please!
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Two effective 'no lynchings'.
As of tomorrow they'll be ten of us left alive, unless the infirmarian gets very lucky. If we still have Morse with us, we might be able to clear five of those, which is very close to being a win.
Given that the detective can signal, by placing votes first or last, whom he has exposed or cleared, in a momentous break with tradition (and, incidentally, heaping great clods of suspicion onto my own head, though that cannot be helped) I think we should at least consider no lynching tomorrow, if we don't lose a special. Having missed two lynchings, the odds of taking out the SCUM by deduction diminish, while the odds of lynching people who might be known innocents or specials increase.
I am well aware that I have (I think) never proposed not killing before, but I don't think we have ever had the situation of two missed chances and a living detective before. And certainly not a living detective who (if he or she is doing what I hope) can leave a clear record of investigations to assist us if they are unfortunately murdered. That changes the game considerably, and means that the hitherto unthinkable strategy of not killing anyone suddenly has a real advantage.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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