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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: A 2012 US election thread
LeRoc

Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216

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It's kind of funny: I've been reading Silver's blog late 2007, and now suddenly everyone talks about him.

It feels a bit like when I was in college and everyone suddenly started to like The Red Hot Chili Peppers, while I already knew them for aaages.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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Dark Knight

Super Zero
# 9415

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How proud you must feel. Being into things before they are famous is a thing white people like.

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So don't ever call me lucky
You don't know what I done, what it was, who I lost, or what it cost me
- A B Original: I C U

----
Love is as strong as death (Song of Solomon 8:6).

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cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338

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It is indeed. I still cherish the memory of when I was teaching a class in leadership back in '06, and was asked by my students who on the contemporary political scene might encompass some of the qualities we were discussing. I told them about the young new Senator from Illinois, and remarked, "I hope some day to have the opportunity to vote for him-- maybe even for President".

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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Lothiriel
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# 15561

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quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
It's kind of funny: I've been reading Silver's blog late 2007, and now suddenly everyone talks about him.


It's possibly due to increased exposure on the New York Times website since 2010. I followed him fanatically leading up to the 2008 election too -- and his accuracy in calling that one is no doubt what attracted the NYT.

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If you want to build a ship, don't drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work and give orders. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea. St-Exupery

my blog

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by Dark Knight:
How proud you must feel. Being into things before they are famous is a thing white people like.

Where I live it's a hipster thing.

I listened to Obama's speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention and thought, "Wow, this guy should run for president." But I've only been reading Nate Silver since spring of 2008 -- kinda messes with my [Cool] cred.

Someone up the freeway from me left a dead pig wrapped in a Romney t-shirt on the step of a GOP office. Asshole. Get off my team.

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Choirboy
Shipmate
# 9659

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quote:
Originally posted by Hawk:
Latinos, in fact new immigrants in general, are probably more likely to vote Republican, being largely in it for the American Dream of self-achievement, and coming to America because they are escaping repressive/corrupt governments.

Since the Latino vote went something like 70-75% for Obama, I think your hypothesis needs some fine tuning. Or perhaps with the current choke hold on immigration, there are significantly more Latino voters who are not new immigrants than there are Latino voters who are new immigrants. Being able to register to vote is a bit of an additional screen there.

It is true that Latino voters as a group (keeping in mind there is healthy variation) tend demographically to be the sort of voter the GOP says it wants: family oriented, largely traditional on social values, hard working, etc. But perhaps the GOP is not perceived by Latinos as the party of opportunity for the hard working working class, and this is compounded by their stance on immigration, the plight of undocumented children, etc.

It is reasonable to expect that hard work equates with a rising wage, but this economic thinking has not been a priority for the GOP.

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art dunce
Shipmate
# 9258

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Matt Taibbi on why Mitt lost:


Modern Republicans "have so much of their own collective identity wrapped up in the belief that they're surrounded by free-loading, job-averse parasites who not only want to smoke weed and have recreational abortions all day long, but want hardworking white Christians like them to pay the tab," Taibbi wrote. "Their whole belief system...is inherently insulting to everyone outside the tent – and you can't win votes when you're calling people lazy, stoned moochers."

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Ego is not your amigo.

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Crœsos
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# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by art dunce:
Matt Taibbi on why Mitt lost:

Modern Republicans "have so much of their own collective identity wrapped up in the belief that they're surrounded by free-loading, job-averse parasites who not only want to smoke weed and have recreational abortions all day long, but want hardworking white Christians like them to pay the tab," Taibbi wrote. "Their whole belief system...is inherently insulting to everyone outside the tent – and you can't win votes when you're calling people lazy, stoned moochers."

In a lot of ways the Republicans have redefined themselves as the "angry asshole" party. People will sometimes vote for angry assholes if they think the angry assholes will direct their anger at (other) people who need to have their asses kicked. If it becomes obvious that the angry asshole will be fairly indiscriminate in his/her asskicking (because, you know, angry asshole) that usually kills off any interest voters might have.

So in this past election cycle the American public has seen Republican crowds cheering the idea of letting someone die if they don't have health insurance, booing a gay soldier, various Republican candidates dog-whistling as hard as possible, and a whole bunch of rape apologism. In other words, they cast way too wide a net in directing their angry assholishness. (Assholish anger?)

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Mr. Rob
Shipmate
# 5823

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quote:
Originally posted by art dunce:

Matt Taibbi on why Mitt lost:

Modern Republicans "have so much of their own collective identity wrapped up in the belief that they're surrounded by free-loading, job-averse parasites who not only want to smoke weed ...


Hey, we do want to smoke weed!

That's why we changed the law in Colorado and Washington State, so that we can do just that.

Excellent! [Overused]
*

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Mr. Rob
Shipmate
# 5823

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:

So in this past election cycle the American public has seen Republican crowds cheering the idea of letting someone die if they don't have health insurance, booing a gay soldier, various Republican candidates dog-whistling as hard as possible, and a whole bunch of rape apologism. In other words, they cast way too wide a net in directing their angry assholishness. (Assholish anger?)

Barnyard breeding tells doesn't it?
*

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malik3000
Shipmate
# 11437

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quote:
Originally posted by Porridge:
Meanwhile, I can't help but notice that in at least one collection of projections, Mitt-the-white-guy seems to be collecting the South, while Barack-the-Kenyan seems to be carrying the North. Has nothing whatever to do with race, though.

Right?

Perhaps a tangent at this point, but, speaking as one who thinks that racism is very much alive and well, and who has lived in both North and South, racism is most definitely not limited to the South. In my personal experience, the most violently expressed anti-Black vitriol I ever heard with my own ears was in Port Jefferson Station NY (Suffolk County Long Island) and in my beloved borough of Brooklyn. The North has no grounds to feel smug on this issue.

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God = love.
Otherwise, things are not just black or white.

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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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How Mitt Romney thanked his hardworking staff.

quote:
BOSTON -- From the moment Mitt Romney stepped off stage Tuesday night, having just delivered a brief concession speech he wrote only that evening, the massive infrastructure surrounding his campaign quickly began to disassemble itself.

Aides taking cabs home late that night got rude awakenings when they found the credit cards linked to the campaign no longer worked.

"Fiscally conservative," sighed one aide the next day.

I'd always suspected that 'fiscally conservative' was just a euphemism for 'screwing over the little guy'.

[ 09. November 2012, 19:31: Message edited by: Crœsos ]

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478

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One of the more interesting protest votes.

What can I say? We like voting for dead people in Georgia. This wasn't my district, or there would have been one more vote.

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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson

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Alogon
Cabin boy emeritus
# 5513

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quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Rob:
Hey, we do want to smoke weed!

I don't know whether I want to smoke weed-- maybe once in a great while on a weekend, but certainly not like when I was in my late 20s.

Yet in any case, I'd suggest that the GOP has a winning issue if they at least take the position that it should be up to the States.

(1) Bill Buckley thought that the war on drugs, at least re marijuana, is silly and insidious.

(2) They have here an issue on which to stand up for States' Rights that only a lunatic could mistake as code for racism.

(3) A sumptuary tax on the sale of marijuana similarly to tobacco and alcohol would be a voluntary "revenue enhancement" that could reduce the level of other taxes. Granted, raising money by pandering to (putative) bad habits is not the most honorable policy in a benevolent authority. But many of us have already sold our souls in this regard by putting out the welcome mat to gambling casinos, which probably do much more harm to the public than any psychological addiction to weed that we're likely to see.

(4) The Obama administration has been so mealy-mouthed (at best) in this area that the GOP has a chance to get into the lead. The feds on his watch have gone out of their way to make life difficult for both providers and consumers of medical marijuana in California.

(5) Here comes a reason-- and the only one I can see-- why it won't be a winning issue for the Republicans: I suspect that the greatest and most well-heeled friends of the status quo are the drug lords themselves. They have more to lose than to gain by going legit. Marijuana might not be a gateway drug for users, but it is certainly one for dealers under current conditions. That is how they are recruited, trained, and networked in preparation for handling the harder stuff. The drug lords not only run big businesses of a sort and get rich, but are important customers of the gun industry. This combination might be altogether too appealing to GOP candidates and their sponsors for them to want to rock the boat.

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Patriarchy (n.): A belief in original sin unaccompanied by a belief in God.

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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Hopefully, a last word on Florida.

(Note that the links will update and therefore my description of current content will become out of date. The description is of contents at 23.00 GMT on 9 November.)

1. The County Reporting Status. At the time of posting this link, Palm Beach has still not completed its count of absentee ballots and only a few counties are "green-ticked" across the board - presumably this means completion of all actions required.

2. The Presidential Vote tally. At the time of posting this link, Barack Obama leads by over 60,000 votes and by 0.7%, and is closing in on 50% of the vote. For the past two days, the Obama lead in both votes and percentage terms has been increasing as the remaining ballots are counted.

Recalling a phrase from the past, the responsible officials appear to be moving "with all deliberate speed" before declaring a result which now looks to be incontrovertible. It's hard to believe there are sufficient outstanding ballots to overturn an Obama majority of more than 0.5%, even if every single one of them went to Romney.

Perhaps it will be over tomorrow as promised? Perhaps not? This process seems to be taking place in a little world of its own.

The post election inquiry seems likely to be bloody.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
# 95

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Here in California, some of our House races are still in play.

I mentioned over in the Electoral College thread how California (which was swing-tending-Republican in Presidential races for my first thirty years) is now solidly Democratic in the presidential elections now. I see a lot of the same dynamics playing out nationally.

Here's a good article about the process. I will note, for completeness, that the Recall election of 2003 only required a plurality for the winning candidate, so it was doubly unlike a regular election. (It was crazy, that's what it was. I hope to never see anything like it again.)

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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

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Gramps49
Shipmate
# 16378

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My son, the Geographer sent me this article on election maps: Interesting.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2012/

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Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
# 95

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quote:
Originally posted by Dark Knight:
How proud you must feel. Being into things before they are famous is a thing white people like.

Nate Silver was certainly a well-known name (at least in circles I traveled in) back in 2008. I had the original FiveThirtyEight on my "daily sites" favorites.

But now it seems like he's famous-famous, not Internet-famous.

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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

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Photo Geek
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# 9757

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This map in the WSJ is my favorite

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"Liberal Christian" is not an oxymoron.

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Freddy
Shipmate
# 365

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quote:
Originally posted by Amazing Grace:
quote:
Originally posted by Dark Knight:
How proud you must feel. Being into things before they are famous is a thing white people like.

Nate Silver was certainly a well-known name (at least in circles I traveled in) back in 2008. I had the original FiveThirtyEight on my "daily sites" favorites.

But now it seems like he's famous-famous, not Internet-famous.

I was also quite impressed that Leroc's constant flouting of Nate Silver's opinons, or statistical observations, turned out to be almost exactly right.

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"Consequently nothing is of greater importance to a person than knowing what the truth is." Swedenborg

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moron
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# 206

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
In other words, voters are not sufficiently stupid to say "things are bad, and it's all one person's fault".

Early exit polls released on Tuesday evening show that about half of voters still blame President George W. Bush more than President Barack Obama for the country’s economic problems and most cite the economy as their top issue in the election.
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Freddy
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# 365

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quote:
Originally posted by art dunce:
Matt Taibbi on why Mitt lost:
Modern Republicans "have so much of their own collective identity wrapped up in the belief that they're surrounded by free-loading, job-averse parasites who not only want to smoke weed and have recreational abortions all day long, but want hardworking white Christians like them to pay the tab," Taibbi wrote. "Their whole belief system...is inherently insulting to everyone outside the tent – and you can't win votes when you're calling people lazy, stoned moochers."

I love this. So true.

Of course there is an implied inverse statement as well, since the Democrats also came within a hair's breadth of losing.

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"Consequently nothing is of greater importance to a person than knowing what the truth is." Swedenborg

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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959

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quote:
Originally posted by Freddy:
Of course there is an implied inverse statement as well, since the Democrats also came within a hair's breadth of losing.

Many a man would kill to have that much hair...

--Tom Clune

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This space left blank intentionally.

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Freddy
Shipmate
# 365

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quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
quote:
Originally posted by Freddy:
Of course there is an implied inverse statement as well, since the Democrats also came within a hair's breadth of losing.

Many a man would kill to have that much hair...

Yes, 2% as has been noted. I realize that in the rare air of presidential elections that is substantial. It's still not very large.

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"Consequently nothing is of greater importance to a person than knowing what the truth is." Swedenborg

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Carex
Shipmate
# 9643

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A 120+ vote margin in the Electoral College is not exactly a hair's breadth.

Nate Silver's estimate is that even with a 2% majority in the popular vote Romney still wouldn't have won. Romney never led in the popular vote at any point (the closest they got was 49.8% to 49.1% on 12 October.) At that lowest point, Obama still had over a 60% chance of winning, and it just kept growing from there.


Of course it would have seemed a lot closer if one were to cherry-pick the polls that gave the results you wanted to hear, or listened to Faux News (which is the same thing.)

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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On the BBC Website, Obama is shown at 50.5% of the popular vote (61.7 million votes) and has a 2.6% lead over Romney (3.2 million votes).

It's not wafer thin. It's a respectable majority on popular vote as well as a sizeable win in the EC.

[Florida is still counting/adjusting/finalising/buggering about (you choose the word you like). Obama is now 74 thousand ahead on votes (almost 0.9%) and has more that 50% of the votes cast. The absentee ballots have been strongly in his favour. No possible chance of a recount under the 0.5% rule, no reason not to call it unless they want to dot all the "i"s and cross all the "t"s i.e. complete the official process. I suppose that would be tidy, even if 4 days late. The track record of the Sunshine State continues to fascinate/perplex/nauseate (you choose the word you like)]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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Here is the news.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
# 2522

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Tell 'em Romney's percentage in Florida. Go on, tell' em, tell 'em.

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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And much more do we think he would have won by if the ballot hadn't been rigged ?

[ETA I felt the need to repost this [Big Grin] ]

[ 10. November 2012, 17:47: Message edited by: Doublethink ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
no reason not to call it unless they want to dot all the "i"s and cross all the "t"s i.e. complete the official process.

I'm not even going to check before I say that I'm sure they're supposed to count each and every ballot. They don't just report who won, they report the actual results -- how many votes there were for each candidate. Moreover, there were a lot of other things on the ballot, and all the results for those things also have to be tabulated.
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Curiosity killed ...

Ship's Mug
# 11770

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Well, there was also that voting machine on HIGNFY which wouldn't let the person vote for Obama ...

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Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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RuthW

It's not true that all of the Florida ballots have been counted even now. That's clear from the NBC report. What seems to be clear is that the election officials had to call totals today because of what Florida State law says about recounts.

Here's the NBC quote

quote:
The Florida Secretary of State's Office said that with almost 100 percent of the vote counted, Obama led Romney 50 percent to 49.1 percent, a difference of about 74,000 votes. That was over the half-percent margin where a computer recount would have been automatically ordered unless Romney had waived it.

There is a Nov. 16 deadline for overseas and military ballots, but under Florida law, recounts are based on Saturday's results. Only a handful of overseas and military ballots are believed to remain outstanding.

It's normal for election supervisors in Florida and other states to spend days after any election counting absentee, provisional, military and overseas ballots. Usually, though, the election has already been called on election night or soon after because the winner's margin is beyond reach.

But on election night this year, it was difficult for officials —and the media — to call the presidential race here, in part because the margin was so close and the voting stretched into the evening.

So the way I read it is this. State officials call an election, not when the count is complete, but when they are sure that the remaining ballots to be counted won't make any difference i.e. the candidate is beyond reach. They'll keep on counting after the call to ensure that every vote is counted in the final tally.

In order to avoid a recount under the 0.5% Florida rule, Obama had to have a little less than a 43,000 vote advantage over Romney. It's a matter of record that his advantage over Romney was over 50,000 from Day 1 after the election, and increased every day thereafter.

The counties in receipt of most of the large number of absentee ballots and last to finish counting absentee ballots were Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. All three had already voted strongly for Obama. The late count of the absentee ballots (c50,000) has led to an increase of over 20,000 in Obama's majority (it looks like he scored better than 2-1 on absentee ballots).

The Romney camp conceded Florida on Thursday (or at the very least sent a strong "we know we lost" signal). Obama's majority was about 60,000 by the end of Thursday. So it was a safe "out of reach" call for the officials by then.

By normal standards, that is. However, my guess is that previous experiences have made the officials very cautious about making a call until they absolutely had to. That's understandable. Doesn't make Florida look any better at these things.

And that's more than enough of the geek from me!

[ 10. November 2012, 20:58: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Palimpsest
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# 16772

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quote:
Originally posted by Carex:
A 120+ vote margin in the Electoral College is not exactly a hair's breadth.

[...]
Of course it would have seemed a lot closer if one were to cherry-pick the polls that gave the results you wanted to hear, or listened to Faux News (which is the same thing.)

Who are you going to believe, Rasmussen or your own lying eyes? :-)
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Timothy the Obscure

Mostly Friendly
# 292

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quote:
Originally posted by Freddy:
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
quote:
Originally posted by Freddy:
Of course there is an implied inverse statement as well, since the Democrats also came within a hair's breadth of losing.

Many a man would kill to have that much hair...

Yes, 2% as has been noted. I realize that in the rare air of presidential elections that is substantial. It's still not very large.
It's larger than quite a few elections in relatively recent history (1960, 1968, 2000, 2004).

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When you think of the long and gloomy history of man, you will find more hideous crimes have been committed in the name of obedience than have ever been committed in the name of rebellion.
  - C. P. Snow

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Barnabas62
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Comparison with the 2004 election is informative. (Source: Wiki article.)

Popular Vote: Bush 62,040,610(50.7%) Kerry 59,028,444 (48.3%)
Electoral College: Bush 286 Kerry 251

(2004 depended in the end on Ohio, which was a closish call, not made until the day after.)

2012 as it stands (Source: BBC News)

Popular Vote: Obama 62,088,847 (50.6%) Romney 58,783,137 (47.9%)

Electoral College: Obama 332 Romney 206

It does seem clear that the EC system is, currently, giving the Democratic candidate a significant advantage. Obama did marginally better than Bush on the popular vote. His very comfortable EC win looks also to have been based on good Democratic voting support (probably helped by good organisation) in the battleground states.

So far as "popular vote mandate" is concerned Obama (2012) has a somewhat better claim than Bush (2004). Obama won comfortably in the end, however you look at it.

So far as mandate questions are concerned, the composition of the House of Representatives following the 2012 elections raises much bigger questions this time than the result of the Presidential election.

But from this side of the pond, it looks as though democracy in the US would benefit from reform (or replacement) of both the EC and the House of Representatives' Districts.

[ 12. November 2012, 07:48: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Basilica
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
So far as mandate questions are concerned, the composition of the House of Representatives following the 2012 elections raises much bigger questions this time than the result of the Presidential election.

Yes: the fact that Democratic candidates won half a million votes more than their Republican counterparts suggests that not all is as it seems when it comes to the Republican congressional majority. Especially when you consider the absurd gerrymandering that goes on, e.g. North Carolina's 12th district.
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Barnabas62
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Think I'll start a new thread, given this one is closing shortly.

So done. Please take any further discussion on that issue to the new thread.

Barnabas62
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[ 12. November 2012, 08:44: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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moron
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I dread having the last post on a thread I started but will risk it to say, again, I wish Obama and his family the best (which of course includes being surrounded by more than sycophants [Smile] ).

And thanks to all!


Plus: 141% IS impressive. [Razz]

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Barnabas62
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With two post-election threads already, and scope for many a more, I think we'll close this at midnight tonight GMT. (The St Lucie County story - and any other political matters Floridian - might become a third thread if anyone has the energy or interest.)

Time to say goodbye. And if you get the last goodbye in, moron, you can have the last word. Other Shipmates. Please PM me if you have sufficient interest in the smoldering flax for it not to be quenched.

Barnabas62
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[ 12. November 2012, 16:31: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Carex
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As we wind down, it is interesting to look at the results of the various polls to see how well they forecast the result in the last few weeks.

According to Nate Silver, out of 23 polling organizations that released 5 or more polls of likely voters in the last 3 weeks of the campaign, only 4 showed a bias in favor of the Democrats, with half of those less than half a point. Meanwhile, 14 of the polls showed a Republican bias of over half a point. So it isn't surprising that the end result came as a surprise to those who weren't paying attention.

The polling firms with the most consistent Republican bias were:

Rasumssen 3.7 points
American Research Group 4.5 points
Gallup 7.2 points


There are a number of causes for the differences. Telephone polls that did not call mobile phones significantly under-reported the expected turnout from young and minority voters among the 1/3 of Americans who only have a mobile phone, compared to older voters who also have a wired phone. (There are laws against automated calling of mobile phones in many states.) Internet polls tended to do reasonably well at reaching a broad demographic, although ones that rely on voluntary participation have to monitor the response.

Many polling firms have a "likely voter demographic" model that they use to select a "representative" sample of the population, and apparently some of these are no longer accurate, especially with regards to young and minority voters.

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Alogon
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This article ponders the fact that Asian-Americans voted for Obama at a higher rate than in 2008 and now at an even higher rate than Latinos. Once again they are the "invisible minority:" this voting trend has gone largely unnoticed by pundits. It is also rather ironic because they have done so well economically, work predominantly in the private sector, own many businesses, and many of them or their parents have had painful brushes with Communism. One would assume that these characteristics would make them natural Republicans.

The only explanation the author finds is that Asian young people are highly educated and often work in high-tech industries in the brainiest communities of the country, e.g. Silicon Valley or the North Carolina "research triangle." Hence they have no interest in Republican negativism about immigrants and gays. (A follower of Richard Florida would be reminded of his three T's: Talent, Technology, and Tolerance; how creative people are found where all three are fostered; and how Republican policies since 9/11 have compromised them almost to a point that jeopardizes national security long-term).

Asians, of course, are a diverse group. The author notes that Korean-Americans do tend to vote Republican, but didn't speculate as to why. Comments from readers noted that he neglected to consider religion in his analysis. A political party comprising people who treat non-Christians as traitors is not going to appeal to a minority comprising non-Christians. Of Asian-Americans, Koreans are the most likely to be Christians.

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Patriarchy (n.): A belief in original sin unaccompanied by a belief in God.

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Barnabas62
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Well, OK! The Asian Community dimension and the three Ts justify leaving the thread open a little longer. Interesting points, Alogon. Good timing, too.

Sword of Damocles sheathed for a little.

B62 Purg Host

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Carex
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quote:
Originally posted by Alogon:
...The only explanation the author finds is that Asian young people are highly educated and often work in high-tech industries in the brainiest communities of the country, e.g. Silicon Valley or the North Carolina "research triangle." Hence they have no interest in Republican negativism about immigrants and gays...

That certainly is my experience working in a high-tech industry with a large percentage of Asians (often here on H-1 visas, so not eligible to vote). But what I remember from the election-night discussions of the vote in North Carolina was that the "research triangle" there was more Republican than the state as a whole.
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tclune
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quote:
Originally posted by Alogon:
The only explanation the author finds is that Asian young people are highly educated and often work in high-tech industries in the brainiest communities of the country, e.g. Silicon Valley or the North Carolina "research triangle." Hence they have no interest in Republican negativism about immigrants and gays.

David Brooks has discussed the Chinese and Indian communities' rejection of Republican candidates, and suggests that the real basis -- beyond the fascist tendencies of red-neck Republicans scaring the bejesus out of them -- is that these groups are culturally much more attuned to collective concerns. The bedrock of Republican fantasies is that whatever they got they got by themselves alone and to Hell with the rest of the country. Absolutely no civilized person could sign onto that nonsense.

Brooks suggests that the way forward for Republicans is to concentrate on ways that the government can offer help to people wanting to move up the social ladder. Of course, that would make them Democrats by today's jack-booted Republican standards. My fantasy is that Republican stupidity has reached the tipping point, where these foul troglodytes will finally cease to be a significant part of our political landscape. But, as HL Mencken noted, "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

--Tom Clune

[ 13. November 2012, 13:23: Message edited by: tclune ]

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Antisocial Alto
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quote:
Originally posted by Carex:
But what I remember from the election-night discussions of the vote in North Carolina was that the "research triangle" there was more Republican than the state as a whole.

That would surprise the heck out of me, considering that the Triangle area contains my hometown of Chapel Hill (aka a mess of godless commie freaks, according to the rest of the state).

The I-40 corridor of North Carolina has been getting steadily more liberal over the past twenty years, not necessarily because the natives have changed their opinions but because there has been a huge influx of Yankees and other furriners. If you had told me 15 years ago that North Carolina would go for Obama in 2008, I would have laughed at you. We were still electing Jesse Helms by huge margins until he retired in 2002.

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Barnabas62
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From a kind of mirror image situation in the UK (what happened to "Old Labour").

If a political party becomes dominated by its ideologists, its desire to remain "true to its ideals" will take a long time to get modified, despite the evidence that it is precisely its current ideology which makes it unelectable.

There is a kind of tragedy in it. The party activist, the loyalists, are very often idealists; profoundly committed to the party for precisely that reason. And of course you cannot expect folks to ditch their ideals purely for the sake of electability.

So the party goes through phases or seeking both to "purify" its ideals (which can even lead to them becoming more extreme) and also looks for means of "getting our message across more clearly and convincingly".

It takes a while for the penny to drop that the problem is the ideology itself. An issue discussed in part in this thread.

Then folks divide. The purist say, in effect, "even if the result is unelectability, we won't sell out". The pragmatists say "let's get in first. That may mean "spinning" the message". The realists say "Maybe there really is something wrong with both our values and the way we express them? There's work to be done both on philosophy and policy. Maybe the world has changed? Maybe we need to revisit these things we cherish so much?"

The GOP is in for a period of soul-searching. It needs more than just another "Game Change".

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Antisocial Alto:
quote:
Originally posted by Carex:
But what I remember from the election-night discussions of the vote in North Carolina was that the "research triangle" there was more Republican than the state as a whole.

That would surprise the heck out of me, considering that the Triangle area contains my hometown of Chapel Hill (aka a mess of godless commie freaks, according to the rest of the state).
If only there were some kind of world-wide information network that could answer this question!

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Choirboy
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It also depends on your definition of the Research Triangle.

The three core counties with the bulk of the population went heavily Democratic, as did several other counties that could be possibly included. Other such counties did not.

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mousethief

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The election, although over, is still throwing up new things to talk about (pun intended).

The Republican "blame anything but our choice of candidate" reaction to the election has vacillating between disgusting, humorous, and frightening. The latter are comments on blogs/news articles implying potential misdeeds. E.g. "Well the ballot didn't work...", ellipsis in the original, harkening back to somebody's quip (Bachmann?) about using the bullet if the ballot didn't work.

Lots of people on the right seem to think the election was "stolen" -- by voter fraud or vote-counting fraud, or whatever. Which is a grand case of projection since all the fraud discovered over the course of the last year has been perpetrated by Republicans.

The denial is thicker than flies on shit. I'm not sure Karl Rove believes Romney lost even now.

The hyperconservatives who think Romney lost because he wasn't conservative enough also seem to have their heads in the clouds. Hwut?

Oh well. Some estimates say by 2024 Texas will be a swing state. Not many years after that it will be solid blue. If the GOP doesn't find some way of appealing to people outside their angry old white guy demographic, they're toast.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Timothy the Obscure

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Paul Ryan blames the loss on the high turnout of "urban" voters. Presumably the same people who listen to "urban" radio stations. Wonder what they look like?

In another article, he was quoted as denying that they lost on the issues... it's just that "urban" thing, I guess.

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When you think of the long and gloomy history of man, you will find more hideous crimes have been committed in the name of obedience than have ever been committed in the name of rebellion.
  - C. P. Snow

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