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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Circus: Papabile betting pool
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sebby
Shipmate
# 15147
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Posted
Cardinal Scola 5 SoD
Taking name Gregpry XVII a further 5 SoD
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sebhyatt
Posts: 1340 | From: yorks | Registered: Sep 2009
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
sebby, you have to suggest a new papabile, put 5 SoD on him, and then you have 20 SoD to spend on any of the proposed papabiles (including the one you've added). And I'm not doing the papal names here. This time we have had three new contenders added, including the first non-Cardinal and a Mexican whom I almost suggested myself. I may shift some money that way later... Now riddle me how one styles a Christoph Graf von Schönborn, who is also a Cardinal? And what is the correct title to use here for a Prior General? Is it indeed Most Rev. Fr.? (Is there anywhere online a good write-up for the conventions about religious titles?)
- Peter Cardinal Turkson - odds: 11 - 3 (4.64), hedge: 6, leader: 26
- Marc Cardinal Ouellet - odds: 26 - 5 (6.21), hedge: 5, leader: 16
- Angelo Cardinal Scola - odds: 47 - 7 (7.7), hedge: 4, leader: 16
- Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal - odds: 31 - 4 (8.75), hedge: 4, leader: 26
- Leonardo Cardinal Sandri - odds: 71 - 6 (12.83), hedge: 3, leader: 16
- Norberto Rivera Cardinal Carrera - odds: 72 - 5 (15.4), hedge: 2, leader: 26
- Christoph Cardinal Schönborn - odds: 72 - 5 (15.4), hedge: 2, leader: 26
- Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle - odds: 74 - 3 (25.67), hedge: 2, leader: 11
- Péter Cardinal Erdő - odds: 31 - 1 (32.08), hedge: 1, leader: 8
- George Cardinal Pell - odds: 75 - 2 (38.5), hedge: 1, leader: 11
- George Cardinal Alencherry - odds: 376 - 9 (42.78), hedge: 1, leader: 10
- João Cardinal Braz de Aviz - odds: 76 - 1 (77), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley - odds: 76 - 1 (77), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Fr. Robert F. Prevost - odds: 76 - 1 (77), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi - odds: 76 - 1 (77), hedge: 1, leader: 6
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
a Mexican whom I almost suggested myself.
Interesting!
I don't frequent the Circus much -- do I ask you or a host if it's okay for us to discuss the reasoning behind our picks?
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I don't frequent the Circus much -- do I ask you or a host if it's okay for us to discuss the reasoning behind our picks?
The hosts, of course. I'm fine with any (on topic) discussion, but they might not be. I'm also not a regular, so I don't really know the boundaries...
To sneak in a brief comment: I was considering your Cardinal Carrera for combining strong concerns for social justice with complete orthodoxy. But IIRC he was tainted by having supported the Legionaries of Christ, or something like that... I think that makes him too attackable by the media.
[ 03. March 2013, 20:24: Message edited by: IngoB ]
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894
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Posted
Discussing your reasoning is just fine, unless you have some inside information that'll help you win. In that case, discussing your reasoning is fine by us, but probably not with the people who run the conclave and are supposed to make sure you never find out about those things.
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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.
Posts: 6849 | From: The People's Republic of Balcones | Registered: Jan 2006
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
OK - I think I need to seriously hedge my bets - please can I have the hedge stakes on candidates 5 through 14. I believe that means a redistribution of 20 SoDs.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Discussing your reasoning is just fine, unless you have some inside information that'll help you win. In that case, discussing your reasoning is fine by us, but probably not with the people who run the conclave and are supposed to make sure you never find out about those things.
Thanks, Ariston. If I had insider info of that sort, I would be busy gaming the commercial oddsmakers, not running a fun bet on SoF... Actually, I doubt that there is a clear leader at the moment.
Doublethink: First, I count only 16 SoD on the hedges 5-15. Did you want to include number 3 for another 4 SoD? Second, I cannot guarantee that putting in all those hedges will in fact hedge all those papabiles. The number I calculate there is: (overall total + x) / (total for this papabile +x) * x = 25, solved for x and rounded up. The assumption is thus that one extra bid of x is put in, not that money is redistributed widely. You will have to check what you put in against the new odds when the dust settles...
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
I was considering your Cardinal Carrera for combining strong concerns for social justice with complete orthodoxy.
This is exactly what I was thinking. Must be a first.
quote:
But IIRC he was tainted by having supported the Legionaries of Christ, or something like that... I think that makes him too attackable by the media.
And now I've had to look up who Legionaries of Christ are, so I'm feeling better. ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I think I'll take currently stated hedge on 5 to 15 then - thanks.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
I was considering your Cardinal Carrera for combining strong concerns for social justice with complete orthodoxy.
This is exactly what I was thinking. Must be a first.
I think it's the winning combination. For the developing world that's obvious. But even in the West: orthodoxy will dominate in the medium term (even if one does not believe that, it likely will dominate this election!), and a strong social message is the one way with which an orthodox RCC could catch some new, and youngish, converts also here. I think there is ample room for socially radical orthodoxy.
Doublethink: I've put in your hedges. That leaves you with 9 SoD on Baselios Cleemis. Also, at this point in time your hedges in fact all work.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Woohoo !! (Now one of the first three will win ...)
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
I was considering your Cardinal Carrera for combining strong concerns for social justice with complete orthodoxy.
This is exactly what I was thinking. Must be a first.
Not really. One way in which the hierarchy are quite different than the chattering classes (and blogosphere in particular) in Catholicism is that the bishops who are most strident about not deviating from doctrinal formulations tend to be consistent in applying the same strictness to social issues. Think of Bp Olmstead's opposition to Arizona's SB 1070, for instance. Not always true, but much more likely to be true in the hierarchy than the rest of the church.
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
I'm not at all surprised at that, Hart. It has always impressed me that when the Catholic hierarchy in the US applies its pro-life to prisoners on death row as well as unborn children. And Cardinal Mahony here in Los Angeles stood fast with the Justice for Janitors campaign (as did Mayor Richard Riordan, a Republican and a Catholic).
The "first" to which I was referring is that IngoB and I were thinking along the same lines.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
The "first" to which I was referring is that IngoB and I were thinking along the same lines.
Oh, come on. I'm sure you have been reasonable about something sometime before...
Anyway, announcing a further shift of my bets, with the opposite strategy to Doublethink: going for leaders, not hedges. I now lead with 6 on Erdő, 11 on Pell, 6 on Ravasi, 11 on Sandri, 6 on Tagle and I only hedge 5 on Scola. And yes, I have more play money because I donated, see the OP. Do the same and beat me!
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Desert Daughter
Shipmate
# 13635
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Posted
Cardinal Odilo Scherer
gets my five standard SoD's plus ten more -makes fifteen
then
Cardinal Marc Ouellet - ten
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"Prayer is the rejection of concepts." (Evagrius Ponticus)
Posts: 733 | Registered: Apr 2008
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Adam.
Like as the
# 4991
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
The "first" to which I was referring is that IngoB and I were thinking along the same lines.
Ah, I understand now!
I think I should have a touch more hedging, so I'm changing my bet to:
Turkson 8
Scola 8
Ouellet 6
Sandri 3
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Ave Crux, Spes Unica!
Preaching blog
Posts: 8164 | From: Notre Dame, IN | Registered: Sep 2003
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Desert Daughter
Shipmate
# 13635
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Posted
...as a not very serious aside,I'm quite sure we've got God as a lurker on this thread.
As a lurker, He won't post, of course. But if He did, His post would be just this:
![[Killing me]](graemlins/killingme.gif)
[ 04. March 2013, 16:47: Message edited by: Desert Daughter ]
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"Prayer is the rejection of concepts." (Evagrius Ponticus)
Posts: 733 | Registered: Apr 2008
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Inanna
Ship's redhead
# 538
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Posted
Let's increase the US potential: I'll put 5 onto Timothy Cardinal Dolan, just because nobody's mentioned him yet. The other 20 onto Sandri - if there's a fast decision, he's a strong contender, given how much he provides both Italian administration and the South American element. If the conclave goes long ... then I might come back and hedge! ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
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All shall be well
And all shall be well
And all manner of things shall be well.
Posts: 1495 | From: Royal Oak, MI | Registered: Jun 2001
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
Lots of movement, I like it! Inanna is heavying in on my papabile with 20, so I withdraw my hedge on Scola entirely and reduce my leader on Erdő to a hedge of 1 in order to claw back the lead on Sandri with 21. ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
- Peter Cardinal Turkson - odds: 5 - 1 (5.96), hedge: 5, leader: 26
- Marc Cardinal Ouellet - odds: 27 - 5 (6.4), hedge: 5, leader: 16
- Leonardo Cardinal Sandri - odds: 6 - 1 (7.02), hedge: 4, leader: 22
- Angelo Cardinal Scola - odds: 8 - 1 (9.06), hedge: 3, leader: 16
- Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal - odds: 29 - 2 (15.54), hedge: 2, leader: 11
- Norberto Rivera Cardinal Carrera - odds: 136 - 9 (16.11), hedge: 2, leader: 26
- Christoph Cardinal Schönborn - odds: 136 - 9 (16.11), hedge: 2, leader: 26
- George Cardinal Pell - odds: 169 - 9 (19.77), hedge: 2, leader: 12
- Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer - odds: 28 - 1 (29), hedge: 1, leader: 16
- Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle - odds: 65 - 2 (33.46), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi - odds: 141 - 4 (36.25), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- George Cardinal Alencherry - odds: 85 - 2 (43.5), hedge: 1, leader: 10
- Péter Cardinal Erdő - odds: 428 - 7 (62.14), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- João Cardinal Braz de Aviz - odds: 143 - 2 (72.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley - odds: 143 - 2 (72.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Fr. Robert F. Prevost - odds: 143 - 2 (72.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Timothy Cardinal Dolan - odds: 86 - 1 (87), hedge: 1, leader: 6
Reminder: LeRoc and sebby, your bets are not in there because they were invalid, see above. Ricardus, your remaining 10 SoD give my OCD a hard time.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
Lots of movement, I like it! Inanna is heavying in on my papabile with 20, so I withdraw my hedge on Scola entirely and reduce my leader on Erdő to a hedge of 1 in order to claw back the lead on Sandri with 21.
I'll move 3 SoD from Sandri to Tagle, and 5 from Ouellet to Ravasi, leaving me with 10 on Ouellet, 7 on Sandri, 5 on Ravasi and 3 on Tagle. I think it's unlikely that Tagle will be the next Pope, but it might be a rather good thing if he was. Ravasi is my leading contender if the conclave gets scared about how long it's been since an Italian sat on Peter's throne.
For all his popularity in the polls, I don't see Turkson happening. On paper, he has a lot going for him - he's been a cardinal for a while, he's about the right age, and a universal church that trots out an unending line of white Europeans as leaders doesn't necessarily look so universal - but I just don't see it.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Tukai
Shipmate
# 12960
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Posted
More movement ! In light of discussion above, I'll move 5 out of Turkson and onto Carrera
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A government that panders to the worst instincts of its people degrades the whole country for years to come.
Posts: 594 | From: Oz | Registered: Sep 2007
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
I'd like to put my remaining 10 units on Scola and Schönborn - 5 on each, please.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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Hawk
Semi-social raptor
# 14289
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Posted
10 on Cardinal Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga. A spokesman for the Vatican and key player in the global fight against poverty, human rights, and third world debt. A rising star he is probably too moderate for the old guard to elect. But if they have any sense they'll pick him as he'll likely transform the damaged popular image of the papacy into one that isn't a closed-off monolithic institution, but a powerful force for social justice.
I'll stick seven on Schonborn, as the Conclave will be looking for someone to drive them away from the abuse scandals, and he is a powerful voice and a steady hand in that area.
And 4 on Ouellet since his controversial arch-conservatism will probably win out in reality.
And then 4 on Scola, as another top-running conservative.
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“We are to find God in what we know, not in what we don't know." Dietrich Bonhoeffer
See my blog for 'interesting' thoughts
Posts: 1739 | From: Oxford, UK | Registered: Nov 2008
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
10 quid on Reinhard Cardinal Marx because I like the idea of having one Marx as pope.
And I'll back my local boy:
10 quid on Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki, please.
The remaining 5 will go to Cardinal Sandri.
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
I don't understand why Dolan's odds are longer than those in places 14 to 16, unless there has been some behind-the-scenes bet-switching - is IngoB accepting bets by PM?
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Inanna
Ship's redhead
# 538
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Posted
Ooh. Didn't realise that my favouring of Sandri would change things up so much. Let me take 5 back and put 'em on Tagle, in the hopes that it will have some influence back in Rome. And because it's fun.
Will betting be open until the actual "habemus papam" announcement happens?
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All shall be well
And all shall be well
And all manner of things shall be well.
Posts: 1495 | From: Royal Oak, MI | Registered: Jun 2001
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
10 quid on Reinhard Cardinal Marx because I like the idea of having one Marx as pope. And I'll back my local boy:
10 quid on Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki, please. The remaining 5 will go to Cardinal Sandri.
Unfortunately, you can suggest only one new papabile, not two. You can hope, of course, that someone else suggests one of these two. Then your bet would become possible (and you can shift your bet around as much as you like, as long as you keep 5 SoD on your papabile). Le Roc had the same problem above.
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
I don't understand why Dolan's odds are longer than those in places 14 to 16, unless there has been some behind-the-scenes bet-switching - is IngoB accepting bets by PM?
Doublethink hedged on all ranks below 5 here, but Dolan was suggested later. So Dolan does not have a Doublethink hedge on him, the others do. I'm allowing only public bets visible to all here.
quote:
Originally posted by Inanna:
Will betting be open until the actual "habemus papam" announcement happens?
Good question.
Announcement, please take note.
Betting will formally stop at noon (12:00pm GMT) of the official beginning of the conclave, assuming normal proceedings (where the first ballot happens earliest that afternoon). It will do so even if I do not make an explicit announcement stating that it has ended. Bets posted past that point in time, as determined by their time stamp, will be considered invalid.
However, at any time after (until a pope is officially elected), I may post an announcement on this thread that I am accepting as valid all bets before that announcement as well. Yet all bets that come after this announcement are then again invalid. The process can repeat, i.e., these later bets can again become valid if I post another announcement, etc.
Upshot: All bets that are handed in by noon GMT of the day when the conclave starts are guaranteed to count. After that, you can still submit your bets. They are however not guaranteed to count, and will do so only by my later announcement. If that announcement comes, then they are in. All bets between my last announcement on this thread (if there are any, otherwise after noon GMT of the start of the conclave), and the official annoucement of the new pope in Rome, will definitely not count.
The point is that while I would like to extend betting as long as possible and likely will be watching conclave footage live, I do not wish to have some kind of duty to track every plume of smoke in order to close betting in time. Rather I will close the betting when it is safe, and I will retroactively (by posting) extend it longer as I watch the proceedings (if I watch them).
[ 06. March 2013, 15:23: Message edited by: IngoB ]
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Sarasa
Shipmate
# 12271
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Posted
I'm shifting five of my ten on Thottunkal to Carerra.
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'I guess things didn't go so well tonight, but I'm trying. Lord, I'm trying.' Charlie (Harvey Keitel) in Mean Streets.
Posts: 2035 | From: London | Registered: Jan 2007
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
Sorry, IngoB for mishap, I thought I had read Woelki's name higher up the thread. But it was Schoenborn. You can tell I am not a habitual gambler.
It'll be 20 on Woelki, then. And 5 on Sandri.
If someone else fancies Marx in Rome, I'll shift back 10 to him.
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
Hmm, this is really hotting up. I'm moving my 11 from Pell to Rodríguez Maradiaga, and shift 5 from Ravasi to Erdő. Turkson and Ouellet are head to head now, and Scola overtakes Sandri. I have added little arrows to show changes in the ranking.
- Peter Cardinal Turkson → - odds: 44 - 7 (7.28), hedge: 4, leader: 26
- Marc Cardinal Ouellet → - odds: 32 - 5 (7.39), hedge: 4, leader: 11
- Angelo Cardinal Scola ↑ - odds: 23 - 3 (8.68), hedge: 4, leader: 16
- Leonardo Cardinal Sandri ↓ - odds: 49 - 6 (9.17), hedge: 3, leader: 17
- Christoph Cardinal Schönborn ↑ - odds: 35 - 3 (12.69), hedge: 3, leader: 26
- Norberto Rivera Cardinal Carrera → - odds: 99 - 8 (13.38), hedge: 2, leader: 26
- Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal ↓ - odds: 41 - 2 (21.52), hedge: 2, leader: 10
- Óscar Andrés Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga ↑ - odds: 158 - 7 (23.57), hedge: 2, leader: 12
- Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle ↑ - odds: 158 - 7 (23.57), hedge: 2, leader: 7
- Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki ↑ - odds: 95 - 4 (24.75), hedge: 2, leader: 21
- Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi → - odds: 253 - 9 (29.12), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer ↓ - odds: 22 - 1 (33), hedge: 1, leader: 16
- Péter Cardinal Erdő → - odds: 161 - 4 (41.25), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- George Cardinal Pell ↓ - odds: 44 - 1 (45), hedge: 1, leader: 11
- George Cardinal Alencherry ↓ - odds: 97 - 2 (49.5), hedge: 1, leader: 10
- João Cardinal Braz de Aviz ↓ - odds: 163 - 2 (82.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley ↓ - odds: 163 - 2 (82.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Fr. Robert F. Prevost ↓ - odds: 163 - 2 (82.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Timothy Cardinal Dolan ↓ - odds: 98 - 1 (99), hedge: 1, leader: 6
Reminder: LeRoc and sebby, please correct your bets.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Hawk
Semi-social raptor
# 14289
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Posted
I'm changing my vote because I've just read a bit more about Mariaga's sorry handling of the Fr Vasquez case. He seems a pretty sorry handler of abuse and if the Vatican cares about saving the church from being drowned by scandal they'll want someone a bit cleaner.
I'll put 12 on Schönborn since he's looking like the cleanest in this area. Tagle is as well, but as he's so young (and only been appointed a Cardinal in 2012) I don't think they'll go for him.
Mariaga remains with 5, and my other points stay where they are.
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“We are to find God in what we know, not in what we don't know." Dietrich Bonhoeffer
See my blog for 'interesting' thoughts
Posts: 1739 | From: Oxford, UK | Registered: Nov 2008
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Inanna
Ship's redhead
# 538
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Posted
I will remove 4 of my 5 from Dolan to Cardinal O'Malley please. Apparently he's been getting some good press in Rome. And I love the idea of a Capuchin pope.
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All shall be well
And all shall be well
And all manner of things shall be well.
Posts: 1495 | From: Royal Oak, MI | Registered: Jun 2001
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Inanna:
I will remove 4 of my 5 from Dolan to Cardinal O'Malley please. Apparently he's been getting some good press in Rome. And I love the idea of a Capuchin pope.
Inanna, sorry, but you cannot do that. Dolan is the papabile with whom you entered betting here, so you always have to leave at least 5 SoD on him. Your have two choices: you can either move more money from Sandri, or you can donate to the floating fund of the Ship (see OP) to get additional SoDs in hand for betting.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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EtymologicalEvangelical
Shipmate
# 15091
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Posted
5 SoDs on Cardinal Barbarin
20 SoDs on Cardinal Tagle
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You can argue with a man who says, 'Rice is unwholesome': but you neither can nor need argue with a man who says, 'Rice is unwholesome, but I'm not saying this is true'. CS Lewis
Posts: 3625 | From: South Coast of England | Registered: Sep 2009
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Fr Weber
Shipmate
# 13472
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Posted
5 on Scola
5 on Sandri
5 on Ouellet
10 on Francis Cardinal Arinze
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"The Eucharist is not a play, and you're not Jesus."
--Sr Theresa Koernke, IHM
Posts: 2512 | From: Oakland, CA | Registered: Feb 2008
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
I'd like to move 5 from Turkson to Scherer please.
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
The date for the start of the conclave has been announced: Tuesday, 12th of March. As explained above, this means that on that day at noon GMT betting ends. After that time you can still place bets, but whether they will be accepted or not depends on whether I post between then and the election of the new pope. So get your betting in before then to be on the safe side. I'm personally not totally sure that we already have the future pope on our list, so I think newcomers still have every chance to win this... I'm also moving 6 SoD from Tagle to Dolan. Ouellet grabs the first place from Turkson.
- Marc Cardinal Ouellet ↑ odds: 46 - 7 (7.57), hedge: 4, leader: 11
- Peter Cardinal Turkson ↓ odds: 23 - 3 (8.65), hedge: 4, leader: 26
- Angelo Cardinal Scola → odds: 39 - 5 (8.79), hedge: 3, leader: 16
- Leonardo Cardinal Sandri → odds: 33 - 4 (9.24), hedge: 3, leader: 17
- Christoph Cardinal Schönborn → odds: 57 - 5 (12.39), hedge: 3, leader: 26
- Norberto Rivera Cardinal Carrera → odds: 44 - 4 (14.73), hedge: 2, leader: 26
- Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle ↑ odds: 102 - 7 (15.57), hedge: 2, leader: 21
- Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal ↓ odds: 68 - 3 (23.7), hedge: 2, leader: 10
- Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer ↑ - odds: 65 - 4 (27.25), hedge: 1, leader: 16
- Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki → - odds: 65 - 4 (27.25), hedge: 1, leader: 21
- Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi → odds: 31 - 1 (32.06), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- Óscar Andrés Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga ↓ odds: 33 - 1 (34.06), hedge: 1, leader: 12
- Péter Cardinal Erdő → odds: 222 - 5 (45.42), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- Timothy Cardinal Dolan ↑ odds: 437 - 9 (49.55), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- George Cardinal Pell ↓ odds: 437 - 9 (49.55), hedge: 1, leader: 11
- George Cardinal Alencherry ↓ odds: 107 - 2 (54.5), hedge: 1, leader: 10
- Francis Cardinal Arinze ↑ odds: 107 - 2 (54.5), hedge: 1, leader: 11
- João Cardinal Braz de Aviz ↓ odds: 539 - 6 (90.83), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley ↓ odds: 539 - 6 (90.83), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Fr. Robert F. Prevost ↓ odds: 539 - 6 (90.83), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Philippe Cardinal Barbarin ↑ odds: 108 - 1 (109), hedge: 1, leader: 6
Reminder: LeRoc, sebby and Inanna, please correct your bets.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
According to the BBC Turkson has openly talked about the possibility of becoming pope in the past, I think this substantially reduces his chances.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Amazing Grace
High Church Protestant
# 95
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Posted
I've got a little list:
5 SoF Quatloos - Cardinal Ouellet
5 - Cardinal Carrera
5 - Cardinal O'Malley (my dark horse candidate, because I think he is awesome)
5 - Cardinal Turkson (I might change him later)
5 - Cardinal Scola
I hear that the Americans are a bit in the Vatican doghouse right now after *shock horror* having press briefings, but I've gotta put O'Malley in there.
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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play
Posts: 6593 | From: Sittin' by the dock of the [SF] bay | Registered: Jul 2003
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
Amazing Grace, as per the OP, you have to suggest a new papabile and put at least 5 SoD on him in order to enter the betting. All your proposed bets are on papabiles already in the list.
If I may offer some suggestions: Angelo Cardinal Bagnasco, Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith and Raymond Leo Cardinal Burke are some names that I would think are not entirely outlandish.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
A couple of changes, please. 5 to Scherer, 5 to Erdő, leaving 15 on Carrera.
[ 11. March 2013, 20:45: Message edited by: RuthW ]
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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marzipan
Shipmate
# 9442
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Posted
I nominate
Fernando Filoni. Italian but he's wandered about a fair bit so he's not an isolated out of touch guy. Plus anyone who's not scared of explosions should be good for the church...
So I'll put 10 moneys on him.
5 each on Marc Ouellet, Baselios Cleemis and Sean O'Malley as they have nice faces.
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formerly cheesymarzipan.
Now containing 50% less cheese
Posts: 917 | From: nowhere in particular | Registered: May 2005
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
Saw one account of the probables and at least one of their list isn't on here - Bertone. Given he is the "inside" man, surprised he's not on here. Not that I want to put anything on him.
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Pancho
Shipmate
# 13533
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Posted
I nominate:
Jorge Maria Cardinal Bergoglio of Buenos Aires.with 5 SoDs
I also put:
5 SoDs on Cardinal Rivera.
5 SoDs on Cardinal Turkelson.
5 SoDs on Ouellet.
5 SoDs on Arinze.
I might redistribute later if I have time.
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I nominate Bergoglio for the reasons IngoB and RuthW gave for Rivera: complete orthodoxy combined with concern for social justice. Plus, he's Latin America and I believe the Vatican's eyes are turning towards L.Am. starting with Pope Benedicts meetings with the bishops in Brazil, his visits to Cuba and Mexico last year, and now World Youth Day coming up. Plus he's the son of an Italian immigrant which gives him sympathy with the Italians, and he was in the running during the last conclave.
For Rivera: I think he's the dark horse in this race, for the same reasons given before, plus he was mentioned during the last conclave and again, I believe Latin America is going to get a lot of attention in the coming years. Plus, it would put the U.S. on notice on so many levels and make for an ironic twist on the old saying, "Poor Mexico: so far from God, so close to the United States".
p.s. I could be wrong but I believe it might be Norberto Cardinal Rivera Carrera, because Rivera is not a middle name but his paternal surname. For example, a man named Juan Antonio Jimenez Paredes would be addressed as Señor Jimenez.
Ouellet for all the reasons given before, especially for being the head of the Congregation of Bishops as I think the shaping up of bishops is going to continue to be a big task in the next pontificate. Plus, he's looking at you, U.S. and Canada.
Turkson for all the reasons given elsewhere. He's got youth and energy on his side.
Arinze because he's so formidable, he's African, he's no-nonsense. Despite his age he's got the energy and temperament to get things done.
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“But to what shall I compare this generation? It is like children sitting in the market places and calling to their playmates, ‘We piped to you, and you did not dance;
we wailed, and you did not mourn.’"
Posts: 1988 | From: Alta California | Registered: Mar 2008
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Pancho:
For Rivera: I think he's the dark horse in this race, for the same reasons given before, plus he was mentioned during the last conclave and again, I believe Latin America is going to get a lot of attention in the coming years. Plus, it would put the U.S. on notice on so many levels and make for an ironic twist on the old saying, "Poor Mexico: so far from God, so close to the United States".
I'd forgotten about that saying. It would be friggin' awesome if a Mexican were pope.
quote:
p.s. I could be wrong but I believe it might be Norberto Cardinal Rivera Carrera, because Rivera is not a middle name but his paternal surname. For example, a man named Juan Antonio Jimenez Paredes would be addressed as Señor Jimenez.
I wonder -- are there any cardinals with just one name?
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Dogwalker
Shipmate
# 14135
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Posted
I'd like to redistribute my bets on the eve of the Conclave.
5 on Cardinal O'Malley
5 on Cardinal Ouellet
5 on Cardinal Scola
5 on Cardinal Erdo
5 on Cardinal Rivera
Three from the new world, two from Europe, one Italian. And one who's probably a relative, since all of us French-Canadians are related to each other.
And IngoB, thanks for doing this.
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If God had meant for us to fly, he wouldn't have given us the railways. - Unknown
Posts: 155 | From: Milford, MA, USA | Registered: Sep 2008
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
I'm moving my 11 on Rodríguez Maradiaga to 6 on O'Malley and 5 on Scherer. Serious commentators are suggesting that a US pope now is a possibility (Dolan perhaps, but we should really have Burke on our list for his massive canon law cred, given that cleaning up the Curia and the rest of the Church will be a big item on the wish list of many). I also feel that Ranjith is in with a good shot, and hope that someone will put him on the list.
- Marc Cardinal Ouellet → odds: 27 - 4 (7.73), hedge: 4, leader: 11
- Peter Cardinal Turkson → odds: 31 - 4 (8.75), hedge: 3, leader: 26
- Leonardo Cardinal Sandri ↑ odds: 9 - 1 (10.08), hedge: 3, leader: 17
- Angelo Cardinal Scola ↓ odds: 85 - 9 (10.44), hedge: 3, leader: 16
- Christoph Cardinal Schönborn → odds: 25 - 2 (13.52), hedge: 2, leader: 26
- Norberto Cardinal Rivera Carrera → odds: 15 - 1 (16.08), hedge: 2, leader: 16
- Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle → odds: 16 - 1 (17), hedge: 2, leader: 21
- Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer ↑ - odds: 113 - 6 (19.83), hedge: 2, leader: 16
- Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal ↓ odds: 81 - 4 (21.25), hedge: 2, leader: 10
- Péter Cardinal Erdő ↑ odds: 26 - 1 (27.05), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki ↓ - odds: 75 - 4 (29.75), hedge: 1, leader: 21
- Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley ↑ odds: 34 - 1 (35), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi ↓ odds: 34 - 1 (35), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- Francis Cardinal Arinze ↑ odds: 116 - 3 (39.67), hedge: 1, leader: 11
- Timothy Cardinal Dolan ↓ odds: 53 - 1 (54.09), hedge: 1, leader: 7
- George Cardinal Pell ↓ odds: 53 - 1 (54.09), hedge: 1, leader: 11
- George Cardinal Alencherry ↓ odds: 117 - 2 (59.5), hedge: 1, leader: 10
- Fernando Cardinal Filoni ↑ odds: 117 - 2 (59.5), hedge: 1, leader: 11
- João Cardinal Braz de Aviz ↓ odds: 589 - 6 (99.17), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Fr. Robert F. Prevost → odds: 589 - 6 (99.17), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Philippe Cardinal Barbarin → odds: 118 - 1 (119), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Jorge Maria Cardinal Bergoglio ↑ odds: 118 - 1 (119), hedge: 1, leader: 6
- Óscar Andrés Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga ↓ odds: 118 - 1 (119), hedge: 1, leader: 6
Reminder: LeRoc, sebby, Inanna and Amazing Grace, please correct your bets.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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PaulBC
Shipmate
# 13712
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Posted
Marc Cardinal Ouellet 10
Sean Parick Cardinal O'Malley 10
Angelo Cardinal Scala 5 ![[Votive]](graemlins/votive.gif) ![[Angel]](graemlins/angel.gif)
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"He has told you O mortal,what is good;and what does the Lord require of youbut to do justice and to love kindness ,and to walk humbly with your God."Micah 6:8
Posts: 873 | From: Victoria B.C. Canada | Registered: May 2008
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
PaulBC and anybody else who now thinks of joining in:
You need to suggest a new papabile and put 5 SoD on him to enter the betting, see the OP.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I wonder -- are there any cardinals with just one name?
I suspect not - cardinals have to travel, and most of the world's bureaucracies aren't set up to deal with people with one name.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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