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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Circus: Mafia on the Planet Dimthing Tourist Bus
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
Hophtrig really likes your thinking, Ios.
Choey is a good friend, even though we do fight a bit, Hophtrig would like to believe we're both innocent.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
I said earlier that I agreed with Choey. But now I don't know what I think. I wouldn't know if I agreed with anyone.
I think it would be good if we could have several lines of reasoning and evidence that would point towards who to nominate tomorrow. If we get convergence from several different ways of approaching the problem, that might increase our likelihood of success.
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
Hophtrig really doesn't know what to think, either. Hophtrig likes everyone on this bus. What Hophtrig thinks is: Hophtrig knows he can trust John, Hophtrig suspects he can trust Zapaterietxe, Ios, Otto and Choey. Hophtrig hopes he can trust The Graffin and Codine.
Hophtrig is confused. The beings in Hophtrig's suspects and hopes groups keep dancing about and changing places. Hophtrig knows he can't trust all the beings in his list, there are naughty ones in there.
Sorry naughty beings, Hophtrig doesn't trust you. Please tell Hophtrig who you are.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Gwai
Shipmate
# 11076
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
What if Ja'ayem's goal was not to sacrifice himself for Choey and/or Hophtrig, but to be sure he was found out as the Sympathiser? Instead of trying to protect one or both of Choey or Hophtrig, what if he is trying to frame them? This could be a plot set in motion well before Choey or Hophtrig were even nominated, indeed before this Dimthing Day.
But we were quite likely going to lynch Choey anyway. (Zapa's suspicions, questions and all) If Ja'ayem wanted her lynched, all he had to do was sit down, shut up, and not nominate Ios.
[ 30. March 2014, 02:01: Message edited by: Gwai ]
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A master of men was the Goodly Fere,
A mate of the wind and sea.
If they think they ha’ slain our Goodly Fere
They are fools eternally.
Posts: 11914 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
Nothing was black and white before Ja'ayem threw Ios in the mix and clarified things so beautifully for us. It could've been Choey. It could've been Hophtrig. Then Ja'ayem played on our comfort with the idea that it wasn't Ios and left.
By Ja'ayem's action, we have been left with the feeling that either Hophtrig or Choey is guilty, and the likely course of action would be throw one, and if that friend is innocent, throw the other. If both Choey and Hophtrig are both good, that course would be perfect for the naughty beings. Not to say Choey and Hophtrig are definitely both good, but Ios' warning is a wise one.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
But to get two thrown off, maybe we needed more confidence that one of these two was naughty. If we follow the theory, if Hophtrig got thrown off and was good, then Choey would mourn and say how wrong she was. And because she had no special knowledge unless she was naughty, she might be believed and someone really naughty have been chosen by a process of logic instead. But with what Ja'ayem did, if she convinces people that Hophtrig is naughty and goes off today, and it is proven that Hophtrig is good, weep as she may, Choey would have more evidence against her than what could have been a mistake. "Surely", the friends are supposed to think "Ja'ayem died saving someone, if it wasn't Hophtrig, then..."
Much more certain and less dangerous for the naughties.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Barefoot Friar
Ship's Shoeless Brother
# 13100
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Posted
So it seems we've narrowed it down to Hophtrig, Otto, Cho Bacca, and Codine.
All have good arguments for and against, which makes deciding harder.
The best case has been built against Cho Bacca, although much of what causes her to be accused could be read as an innocent along the lines of Lesley.
Hophtrig seems to be in the most unstable position, due to the various ways people have implicated him. Whether it is a frame or not, I do not know.
Otto hasn't looked really great since Reppik ham-fistedly tried to save him on Day Two. However, that particular event could have been an attempt to get an innocent lynched, and in general a case can be made for Otto's innocence.
Codine claims innocence, and I still think the body of evidence points in that direction. However, a sneaky Possessed would love to be in the spot Codine is in at the moment, and getting there isn't terribly hard.
As a bonus, I think I heard a few rumblings of -- not outright suspicion, but an unsure feeling -- of the Grafinn. However, I believe that has now been put to rest, even for me.
Zapaterietxe, got any thoughts? Ios? Grafinn?
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Do your little bit of good where you are; its those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world. -- Desmond Tutu
Posts: 1621 | From: Warrior Mountains | Registered: Oct 2007
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Thanks for the summary, John The Less. Unfortunately, I have no idea what I think right now.
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Barefoot Friar
Ship's Shoeless Brother
# 13100
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Posted
We may just have to pick one and hope for the best.
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Do your little bit of good where you are; its those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world. -- Desmond Tutu
Posts: 1621 | From: Warrior Mountains | Registered: Oct 2007
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
John, you may be a very clever being and a good friend, but Hophtrig doesn't much like the idea of throwing something at an imaginary dartboard to find the naughty person. Hophtrig is keen on the idea of grouping behind a clever, innocent person (like you, John) but not quite so keen on the idea of following someone's random selection. Please talk with a little more certainty.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Barefoot Friar
Ship's Shoeless Brother
# 13100
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
John, you may be a very clever being and a good friend, but Hophtrig doesn't much like the idea of throwing something at an imaginary dartboard to find the naughty person. Hophtrig is keen on the idea of grouping behind a clever, innocent person (like you, John) but not quite so keen on the idea of following someone's random selection. Please talk with a little more certainty.
I know exactly what you mean. At the moment I have a few clues. They seem to point more to Cho Bacca than to anyone else, but I am not convinced enough to nominate her and push for lynching. This applies to all four of the suspects.
So I see what you mean about not wanting to play darts, as it were, with our nominations. I assure you if I nominate someone it will be because I am convinced that one is guilty and needs to be pushed off the bus now. Until then, I'm leaving myself free to speculate and even to change my mind several times.
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Do your little bit of good where you are; its those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world. -- Desmond Tutu
Posts: 1621 | From: Warrior Mountains | Registered: Oct 2007
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
I have now read every vord of ze transcipts from Ja'ayem.
He vas never very talkative, und vat he said vas mostly sound but non-commital analysis. I could see nothing at all zat looked like a hint of his sympathies vith ze killers. Ze method I used vas, venever he mentioned somevun who is still alive, or Reppik (because ve know he vas guilty) to ask myself "If I vere zat person, und zey vere guilty, vould I think zat zis vas a message to me?" Und in every case, I could see no reason for thinking zat it vas.
I did not alvays agree vith him, but, apart from ze failure to vote for Reppik, zere vas very little zat did not seem consistent vith innocence. Vith hindsight (but not at ze time) I see somevun keeping a low profile, involving himself in discussion enough to seem useful, but no more. He did not push hard for anyvun's guilt or innocence. Und he said, at ze start, zat ze sympathiser meant zat ze killers "get an extra vote at the crucial end game". I think zat zis must have been his plan - to stay in ze game vithout firm commitment, until vun vote vould make a difference to his allies.
Ze vun comment zat struck me as out of ze ordinary vas zis:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Fourthly, if you are innocent and female, be very very scared. Looking at who we have lost, the odds are not in your favour. This suggests to me an aggressive male trio of baddies. And if that trio includes Zapaterietxe and the Grafinn we are in trouble. Best case scenario is that it includes only one of those two. Who survives the next black out will tell us much.
That is a very interesting observation. I don't know if correlation means causation in this case or not... worth a thought, anyway.
Seconded. Definitely worth a very long discussion afterwards.
It is a sample of 2 (3 if the mafia can reach out in RL) so it's not impossible to be chance.
And thinking of real life could be consistent with an all female mafia.
And of course the mafia are trying to be deceitful, which may be enough to make a stronger dent in casual sexism than the rest of us.
But it is interesting... (although now the mafia will definitely be aware of what signals they send-and we're back in quad bluff zone)
It seemed to be zat zis vas not a discussion vorth having at all. Ve had, at zis point, lost Crimson (physically incorporeal und grammatically neuter) und Lady Celandine (physically and grammatically feminine). Zey vere both investigators, though vether zis vas reasoning or luck ve do not know. Und, as Ja'ayem himself pointed out, even if ze killers vere targetting ze non-masculine passengers (und zere is no reason to think zey vere), zat vould not prove zat zey zemselves vere male or female.
Saying zat zis vas a discussion he vanted to have somehow does not fit ze pattern. But, of course, he did not zen initiate zat discussion, vich suggests he did not actually vant to have it, but zat it vas, from his point of view, a promising dead end to vich he could lead us.
Vich, very veakly, suggests zat ze killers are of different genders, if either of ze possible (und illogical) conclusions of zis misconceived discussion vere not a threat to Ja'ayem's allies. But only veakly. It may be he vas intending to steer ze discussion more positively vun vay or anozer.
Vich is a long vay of saying zat Ja'ayem's contributions up to yesterday tell me very little.
Zat said, since Ja'ayem is ze vun guilty person vith a distinct interest in communicating vith ze killers, I think zat it is vorth looking at his vords closely. Somevun else may see something zat I have missed.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
Vat else can ve learn from Ja'ayem?
Ze first (und obviously I vill put it first) is zat it supports my innocence. I argued very strongly zat ze sympathiser vas in ze Ja'ayem/Choey/Hophtrig group, und zat as ve vere two votes from defeat unless ze had a success, ve should go zere to find vun.
I did not know for certain vere ze sympathiser vas. No vun did - possibly not even ze killers. So ze fact zat Ja'ayem vas guilty is not in itself proof zat I am innocent. But vat it does show is zat I vas arguing zat ve should look to zis group, und to Ja'ayem und Choey especially, in good faith, und using my best judgement. Ze fact zat I vas right shows zat I vas not trying to mislead vith plausible lies, but vorking out a conclusion vich had a genuinely high chance of being right.
Vat else? Vell zat depends, I think, on ven Ja'ayem gave up hope. I think zat ven he first tried to focus our attention on ze 'Reppik group' (Otto, Codine, Ios und me) he vas still trying to survive. I think zat his record shows zat survival to ze endgame vas his strategy, so I think zat his first reaction vas "How can I avoid being killed?". As he vould not have tried to have a killer evicted as an alternative to himself, ve must conclude zat had ve listened to him, he vould have steered us to an innocent victim. So vy not concentrate on Choey as ze plausible alternative? She vas, as ozers have said, ze plausible alternative to him. If she is innocent, vy not endorse Zapaterietxe's suspicions und try to target her?
Instead he nominated Ios. Ze qvestion for me is vether, at zis point, Ja'ayem had given up hope? Did he think ve might lynch Ios? Zat seems unlikely - neither of ze known innocents looked as if ze vould evict her, und ve (ze innocents) vould never have ignored both Zapaterietxe und John, because mathematically ve could not have won any vote against united guilty opposition vith two innocents in disagreement. So I am thinking zat Ios vas not a nomination vith any prospect of leading to her death, und Ja'ayem knew zis. It does not mean zat she is definitely innocent, if I am right. If zere vas no real risk of Ja'ayem's accusation leading to her death, zere is no reason vy he should not have nominated somevun he knew vas guilty.
Vell, zere vas vun, vich is zat if ve suppose Ios to be guilty, ze killers, not knowing zat Ja'ayem vas ze sympathiser, vould certainly have voted to lynch him, vunce he accused her. So naming a guilty person as his suspect increases ze risk to Ja'ayem. But if he had entirely abandoned hope of survival, zen zat risk could be discounted. Und ve know he gave up hope at ze end.
But I am not sure he vas not still struggling ven he nominated her. In vich case, ze nomination suggest zat she is innocent. If so, zat brings me back to ze thought zat if he vas struggling against fate, vy not attack Choey? Zat vas a better play zan Ios, unless Choey is guilty. So nominating Ios could have been a bluff. I do not think zis is more likely zan Ios being innocent, by any means (und in her position, I vould argue ze nomination as evidence of innocence) but I could not discount ze possibility zat it vas done to mislead. Ze practice of 'misleading', of course, includes ze double bluff as vell as ze bluff.
Ze only ozer thing is ze reason for Ja'ayem's confession. Vy? Zapaterietxe vas still to vote, und favoured Choey, und ze could still have had ze votes to evict her if he could be persvaded to argue for it. Ze chance vas slim, but it vas zere, vereas confessing gave him no chance at all. Vas Ja'ayem vorried zat ze killers vould give zemselves avay by not voting for him, und his suicidal vote vas a vay of making zeirs unnecessary? But if so, zat vould assume zat he thought zey knew who he vas, und zere is no evidence of zat.
Overall, I think zat Ja'ayem steering us avay from Choey und Hophtrig (mostly Choey) is ze best lead ve have for vat to do next.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
The leads Hophtrig can see.
Hophtrig chose not to vote for someone we found was guilty. Hophtrig was also saved by the suicide of a naughty.
Otto seemed to be cleared by someone we found was naughty.
Choey seemed to be saved by the sacrifice of a naughty.
Hophtrig could have been a mistake on Hophtrig's part, that and the clearing by a naughty could have been saving someone else, or a bluff.
Otto could have been a bluff.
Choey could have been saving another or a bluff.
This is a challenge. Hophtrig is having trouble getting his brain round this. Hophtrig thinks he will try and find the question for 42 again, far easier.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Partridge pretends to have a broken wing. Limps along, leading fox away from nest.
Second partridge, second fox. Second Partridge pretends to have broken wing. Limps away. Second Fox has become wise to Partridge ways, and instead of following partridge looks in spot that partridge seems to be trying to decoy fox from. Discovers that Second Partridge has double bluffed Second Fox, and left a nuclear bomb in nest. Eggs are elsewhere.
Which Partridge is Ja'ayem?
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
More explicitly, and in answer to Codine, what if Ja'ayem's main goal is not so much to get Choey lynched, as to decoy our attention? Choey (and/or Hophtrig) getting lynched would be a consequence, but if Ja'ayem's running the deceit I'm wondering about, that's not the core of the scheme.
Suppose Ja'ayem gets killed (lynched is OK, murdered is even better). We will all go rushing to see who he cleared vs. who he mistrusted in John's Game of Name Three Suspects. Oh look, he says he trusts Choey and Hophtrig. We all go haring off after Choey and Hophtrig, when what we should be doing is saying this: "we found the Sympathizer among the three where Eliabulon suggested we would find the Sympathizer. Let's consider all the candidates equally again, and figure out where to hunt next."
In this deceit, it's perfectly fine for the Sympathiser is not recognized by the murderous Possessed. The Sympathizer's role here would not be to survive to the end and provide an extra vote. The role would be to provide a cast-iron cover for the Possessed, and that cover depends on the Sympathiser being found out.
Or is it just me who thinks this?
[ 31. March 2014, 03:05: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Sorry, should be "Or is it just me who thinks like this?"
[ 31. March 2014, 03:15: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Banner Lady
Ship's Ensign
# 10505
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Posted
As I am innocent, this brings me back to looking hard at Hophtrig again. One or both of us are being thoroughly set up, and we will not know exactly who until the morning. There is little else to do but wait for the next victim to be revealed, and hope the innocents can vote effectively once more.
Choey shuddered and shut her eyes again. She really hoped the majority would get it right tomorrow.
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Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.
Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
It looks like a real setup to Hophtrig, too. Hophtrig seriously hopes it's both of us being set up, not just one, for if it is just one either Hophtrig or Hophtrig's first good friend on this bus is naughty. But if we've both been set up, and one of us gets thrown and proven innocent, none of our friends will know whether both were set up, or just the one of us who got thrown.
Hophtrig's brain is sore from all this thinking, can Hophtrig hug Choey instead, Hophtrig is scared for us both.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
Can Choey and Hophtrig be innocent without implicating the innocent Otto? And Ios as well? The FBC and Otto want to know. They are frightened also.
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
Hophtrig does not want to implicate Otto, either. Nor Ios, John or Zapaterietxe, who Hophtrig thinks have been certainly cleared. Hophtrig is not that keen on implicating Codine or the Graffin, Ekaterina either. And Choey, Hophtrig doesn't want to implicate Choey either.
Hophtrig feels like Hophtrig is stuck between a rock and a place which isn't all that soft. Hophtrig thinks Hophtrig's fellow good passengers are not in a much nicer situation either. Otto is welcome to a Hophtrig hug, too, as is Squeezy.
[ETA a forgotten Choey, very sorry, Choey]
[ 31. March 2014, 04:56: Message edited by: Alban ]
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
[cross posted with Hophtrig]
From Ios' point of view (*), if Ja'ayem is Second Partridge, then the eggs are hidden among Eliabulon, Codine, and Otto. Sorry, Otto. If you know you're Innocent, than it's just Ekiabulon and Codine, or add Ios to those two for consideration, not that adding me in will get you very far in explaining anything, since I'm Innocent.
Or maybe Ja'ayem is First Partridge, and at least one of Choey and/or Hophtrig is Possessed.
The problem I have with Otto being Possessed is that means the Reppik Tew vote had at least two nominees out of three who were Possessed. The Possessed must have been either shitting bricks, or cackling with glee over their fiendish plot to completely mess with the minds of the bus passengers.
Actually, so far it's just the non-murderous Possessed who we know have been messing with our minds: Innocent Joostein, and Sympathiser Ja'ayem. Do we have any indications of anyone else on this bus trying to mess with our minds?
(*) Innocent, but I would say that in any case of course.
[ 31. March 2014, 05:06: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Can Choey and Hophtrig be innocent without implicating the innocent Otto? And Ios as well? The FBC and Otto want to know. They are frightened also.
Otto, why did you not even mention two key possibilities here?
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Ios is going in circles. Nothing makes sense. Or rather, nothing leads to any certain, or even moderately sure, conclusions. Ios decides to give up trying to make any sense of anything for the next two hours. She expects that in two hours the voice of the Absolute will speak to the Assembled Beings and Dimthing Day Five will begin with the revelation of the currently missing scrap of information: who the Possessed have targeted on Dimthing Night Four.
[ 31. March 2014, 06:18: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Ariston
Insane Unicorn
# 10894
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Posted
Alright, back from reconsidering some ancient vehicular engineering; primitive though it may be now, there were some interesting things done with carbon fibers in the days of yore. They've been a bit all-consuming, but here are a few minor thoughts:
1. Everything I've ever said about Choey during the past few days still holds.
2. Everything I've never said about Hophtrig the past few days does as well. Pointing out how guilty you look is an interesting defense, one that did, as best I can tell, kick off a main branch of Terran philosophy, but I'm not sure how well it works here.
3. Everything I've thought about Codine, summarized: if he's guilty, we'd never know until it's too late. Subtle, not especially suspicious looking, and effective.
4. Everything seems to be looking better for Otto, though I do still have my doubts.
Current most likely scenario: Choey and Hophtrig, with Choey playing a sacrifice game, Hophtrig playing along by making himself look guilty; we lynch H, C points to this as "proof" of the innocence she's been claiming all along, we then lynch the innocent Codine, then the Grafinn, she gets off free.
Playing the odds: We have a pool of 4 suspects, 2 of whom are guilty. Even shooting blindly, we have a 50/50 shot of getting one tomorrow. If we miss, it turns to 2 out of 3; a hit, 1 in 3, but information enough to (hopefully) let us take out the next one, along with a chance to get it right at 1 in 2. Still scary, but increasingly in our favor.
Most suspicious of: odd conspiracy theories (the Possessed hate females?), odd defense strategies, odd evasions of repeated questions, odd requests that we follow anyone who's not actively accusing the requester, odd beings acting oddly.
Perfectly normal: nothing.
In need of: a conscious being who reveals our own consciousnesses to each other fully and equally, with each actively for themselves, the other likewise—thus negating the fact of the Possessed's self-certainty realized and made actual in the seemingly non-essential and insignificant selves of the innocent, who are bound through their fear, not just of this or that particular thing or at odd moments, but a dread that seizes the whole being—for it is the fear of death, the Absolute Lord, shaking everything solid and stable to its foundations. Or something like that.
[ 31. March 2014, 06:41: Message edited by: Ariston ]
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“Therefore, let it be explained that nowhere are the proprieties quite so strictly enforced as in men’s colleges that invite young women guests, especially over-night visitors in the fraternity houses.” Emily Post, 1937.
Posts: 6849 | From: The People's Republic of Balcones | Registered: Jan 2006
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
However guilty Hophtrig might look...
However much Hophtrig tries to be objective when making his assessments, Hophtrig would like this to be perfectly clear...
Hophtrig is good!
However much things might look bad for Hophtrig...
Hophtrig is not naughty!
Hophtrig only wants to solve this dilemma.
Hophtrig has not been taken over by a naughty entity, Hophtrig is, plain and simple, innocent.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
Dimthing Tours are pleased to announce that nobody has died in the night. Have a Nice Day. Nominations please.
[ 31. March 2014, 07:15: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
Hophtrig is both pleased and distressed at this news.
Hophtrig is glad none of Hophtrig's friends have died tonight.
Hophtrig is distressed that most of us, apart from Doctor John and the naughties have learnt nothing. Hophtrig will be listening hard to Doctor John, who will have learnt something.
This gets no easier.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Banner Lady
Ship's Ensign
# 10505
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Posted
I am extremely glad we have not lost another innocent overnight.
So either the possessed targeted the doctor in the hope he was protecting someone else, or the doctor DID protect another innocent person, and chose wisely.
If the doctor managed to choose and protect another innocent, then it would be beneficial to the rest of the innocent passengers on board to know who that is, so we don't nominate them for engine retrieval.
The only other way we might not have lost anyone is if the mafia failed to agree on a target, or chose not to pick one in order to maximise the mayhem today. So I am hoping John can enlighten us.
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Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.
Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
Hophtrig is not clever enough to suggest what Doctor John should, or should not do.
If Doctor John wants to tell us what Doctor John is doing at night, it is Doctor John's choice.
Doctor John knows how much help it will be to his friends, and how much danger it will put Doctor John in.
Hophtrig thinks Doctor John can decide to do whatever Doctor John thinks is the best thing to do. Hophtrig does not want to give instructions to any of Hophtrig's friends (even the instruction "give no instructions"), Hophtrig is not the cleverest of beings.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Barefoot Friar
Ship's Shoeless Brother
# 13100
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Posted
My gut feeling is that talking about it will a) not tell us anything of value, and b) get someone innocent killed tonight. Because it will c) hamper my abilities tonight.
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Do your little bit of good where you are; its those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world. -- Desmond Tutu
Posts: 1621 | From: Warrior Mountains | Registered: Oct 2007
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Banner Lady
Ship's Ensign
# 10505
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Posted
If nothing of value has been learned, then we are simply back to wondering which two passengers seem most suspicious, and which two might be working together.
Some of you have suggested Hophtrig and I are colluding. Only I know that this is not the case. This leads me to ask if Hophtrig could be working with Codine or perhaps the Grafinn? Or could Codine be working with someone else?
I do not know how we can work out a high probability of guilt this round without further insight.
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Women in the church are not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be enjoyed.
Posts: 7080 | From: Canberra Australia | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Expanding on Choey's question, and considering a series of possibilities that I am looking at sequentially:
What case can be made that the two remaining Possessed are Choey and Hophtrig?
What case can be made that Choey is Possessed and Hophtrig Innocent, and if so, who is the other Possessed?
What case can be made that Hophtrig is Possessed and Choey Innocent, and if so, who is the other Possessed?
What case can be made that the two Possessed are neither Choey nor Hophtrig, and instead lie in the set {Codine, Eliabulon, Ios, Otto}? I list us alphabetically. Strike out any names that you know are Innocent; for example I can consider just {Eliabulon, Codine, Otto}.
I hope for discussion of these possibilities from the Assembled Beings.
I will add any thoughts I may have -- so far I've only just now come up with the idea of examining possibilities in these categories.
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
There are 8 of us left. How many mistakes can we afford to make? Has the failure of last night's murder attempt bought us an extra mistake we can afford to make?
(Not that I want us to make mistakes, because I don't want to enter the white-knuckle territory of having used all our mistakes and not being able to make any more mistakes at all.)
[ 31. March 2014, 13:25: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
I do not know how we can work out a high probability of guilt this round without further insight.
This may well be true. I would like us to surface the most information possible this round.
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Barefoot Friar
Ship's Shoeless Brother
# 13100
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Expanding on Choey's question, and considering a series of possibilities that I am looking at sequentially:
What case can be made that the two remaining Possessed are Choey and Hophtrig?
What case can be made that Choey is Possessed and Hophtrig Innocent, and if so, who is the other Possessed?
What case can be made that Hophtrig is Possessed and Choey Innocent, and if so, who is the other Possessed?
What case can be made that the two Possessed are neither Choey nor Hophtrig, and instead lie in the set {Codine, Eliabulon, Ios, Otto}? I list us alphabetically. Strike out any names that you know are Innocent; for example I can consider just {Eliabulon, Codine, Otto}.
I hope for discussion of these possibilities from the Assembled Beings.
I will add any thoughts I may have -- so far I've only just now come up with the idea of examining possibilities in these categories.
An excellent set of questions.
If I were to nominate Choey at the moment, it would be largely based on Zapaterietxe's previous work (as was my nomination of Reppik on the second day). I am most suspicious of her, and I cannot word my suspicions and questions any better than Zapa already has.
As for a case for both Hophtrig and Choey, my best answer is that her constant yammering to have him evicted (backed up by a vote only on the second day) is perfect cover for evil collusion. In addition, Hophtrig is in a tenuous position of his own, and he may be deemed innocent or guilty on his own account, rather than through his association with Choey. In other words, if she were to be lynched and found guilty, he is not automatically cleared.
If one is possessed and the other isn't, my first guess for the second would be Otto. However, Codine isn't out of the running; he would be the secretive one we wouldn't discover until too late.
Could they be Codine, Eliablulon, and/or Otto? It is possible. I want to remove the Grafinn from this group based on my understanding of her responses. I'm fairly certain now that Joostein's vendetta was based on misunderstanding instead of a real insight. Unfortunately, that day of arguing and false claims ended up causing us great harm, and I lay the blame squarely on my own shoulders. But I will deal with that once we're all safe.
So then, Codine and Otto? I don't have a good case on Codine. Otto hasn't looked very good all along, and is still in the mix. If I were to rate them in order of how much I suspect them, I would go: Choey, Otto, Hophtrig, Codine.
I think that the Grafinn is right about the "females get killed" thing -- it's probably a case of mistaking correlation and causation, although it's possible that it's a bluff of some sort.
I think it's interesting that both Choey and Hophtrig are alive this morning. It has been pointed out that their death by mafia would screw with our suspicions, assuming both are innocent. That is another reason to think one or both is guilty.
And finally, to answer your question on mistakes: There are eight of us, two of whom are possessed. If we lynch one possessed today, it is 6-1 going into the night. If an innocent is killed overnight, then it is 5-1 tomorrow. If we get a possessed today I believe we can make one mistake before we're in crunch time. Getting the sympathizer yesterday helps us, though not as much as getting a possessed would have.
If we lynch an innocent today and lose another overnight, we will be 4-2 tomorrow and can afford no mistakes. So while we don't win or lose today, it is a pivotal day. Choose well, my friends.
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Do your little bit of good where you are; its those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world. -- Desmond Tutu
Posts: 1621 | From: Warrior Mountains | Registered: Oct 2007
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Gwai
Shipmate
# 11076
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Posted
Codine bows. I have prepared a few thoughts. I'm not sure if there is anything of value in them, but a good servant does not waste work when he can help it, so since I have written them out, I will share them:
"I am still pondering Ja'ayem's behavior, but trying not to read too much into it. As Ios has noted, sometimes people do things for different reasons than we'd do ourselves, and sometimes one doesn't understand just because one thinks differently. Still, it does point suspicion.
Honestly, I think we should try to conclude something from the lack of death last night. We have to be careful not to conclude too much, and we don't want to reveal our doctor's future thinking, but within those lines... For the purpose of this, I'm going to presume each person was not protected although clearly someone (the right someone) was. Still, I don't want to ask who was protected, so:
If Hophtrig or Chooey had died: We would have known that at least that person was died, and I think it might have made the other one look more innocent too. (Not sure?) So were the Mafia avoiding helping us identify innocents or were they not killing each other?
If Ios had died: She's an assumed innocent so might have been a relatively safe target for the Possessed. On the other hand perhaps more likely to be protected than non-known innocents.
If the Graffin had died: Same as above; she's an assumed innocent so might have been a relatively safe target for the Possessed. On the other hand perhaps more likely to be protected than non-known innocents.
If Zapa had died: As a known innocent, I'm sure the mob would love to get him, but he's an obvious possible target to protect.
If I, Codine had died: It would prove my innocence, so would not be particularly appealing perhaps. On the other hand, I was pretty surely not protected, so it would have perhaps advanced their case further than whatever they did last night. Throws guilt on remaining questionables--unless we're assuming an innocent wrongly, of course--maybe especially Choey since I'm suspicious of her?
If Otto had died: I've left him last, because he's still the person I'm the least sure about. What would it tell us if he'd died? I guess it would make the other questionables look more guilty in general, but I don't know who's guilt in particular would be highlighted. He still isn't giving us anything to go on, which makes me want to lynch him, but is perhaps not a good enough reason."
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A master of men was the Goodly Fere,
A mate of the wind and sea.
If they think they ha’ slain our Goodly Fere
They are fools eternally.
Posts: 11914 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Can Choey and Hophtrig be innocent without implicating the innocent Otto? And Ios as well? The FBC and Otto want to know. They are frightened also.
Otto, why did you not even mention two key possibilities here?
Otto was wondering just about these two when he posted about them. Otto frankly would vote for any one who looked the most guilty, but there is so little to go on. Otto would start with everyone as a potential suspect, as in everyone, and vote for the one about whom there was the most evidence. He has more feelings than facts about all of it frankly, and the FBC is rather quiet this morning amid the -21°C snowy weather Otto's fictitious friend is experiencing.
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
Hophtrig wonders if someone has stolen the waste receptacle from the sanitary facilities. There truly is nothing to go on.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
Otto says to Hophtrig that yes, there is somethings to go on, but just not a lot of very clear somethings, even when you are looking through your eyesglasses with as much concentration as you can. Some helpful friends and enemies (which some of them must be because some of them are Bad Ones), so maybe they are enefriends or frienemies, have noted for us that various passengers seem to be quirky quarks. Which means that they showed things about themselves that makes others think they are baddies. But its not a lot to go one for sure.
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
@Hophtrig: ![[Killing me]](graemlins/killingme.gif)
We'll never be able to lynch you. We'll be laughing too hard to bundle you out the airlock. ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
The only other way we might not have lost anyone is if the mafia [...] chose not to pick one in order to maximise the mayhem today.
Zis has been known in ze past, but zere it vas to support a false claim to be a doctor. Zat does not apply here.
For ze killers to have chosen not to kill, vould require zem to think zat John vould be protecting a guilty person, who he vould zen assumed he had saved, and zerefore conclude vas innocent. Zat seems unlikely. I zerefore assume zat John did save somevun last night, und concur vith his thinking zat nothing more needs to be said on ze subject unless he thinks it vould help.
Except, of course, to say "Vell done".
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
Graffin, though you are far cleverer than Hophtrig, Hophtrig can think of another scenario.
Could it be that the naughties see the good people sufficiently confused and sufficiently pointing themselves in the wrong direction that they thought a murder would shake things up and cause a rethinking, so left it alone for the night.
If that was the way, I think the naughties would have underestimated the friends on this bus, who are going to think very hard about every possibility.
That said, Doctor John has proven himself to be clever in the past, so the idea that he chose the right person to save is quite believable, too.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
I am thinking about today's vote.
Otto almost looked as if he might start contributing some thoughts at ze end of yesterday. But I am not hopeful zat zis is a trend. I actually find it hard to believe zat somevun guilty could be so consistently und stubbornly unhelpful as Otto has been. It vould be ze greatest bluff ever if he vas. I could, just about, have believed zat ze sympathiser might act zat vay, but ve know zat he is not ze sympathiser.
Ios I have spoken about last night. If Ja'ayem vas genuinely trying to lynch her, she is innocent. If he vas not (und I suspect not) zen his nomination of her vas a ploy to mislead. Ze trouble is, it is just as plausible to suppose he nominated a guilty companion to make them appear to be his enemy, as it is to suppose he nominated an innocent person thinking ve vould assume zat he vas trying to play us. I can't find a reason to accuse Ios, but I vould caution against assuming she could not be guilty. She is devious enough zat she will act innocently, vatever her real allegiance.
Codine also. She is acting exactly as I vould expect her to act if innocent. Und zat is very, very close to how I vould expect her to act if guilty. Again, I have no positive reason to suspect her, but vould not discount her.
I am not sure vat to make of her discussion of last night's attempted kill. I don't think zat her discussion helps ze killers directly (zey already know who zey tried to kill, und vy) but ze risk is zat John might be drawn into telling us something of his thinking, und zat might help ze enemy predict his next move. So I think zis vas unhelpful of her. But I also think zat a killer is unlikely to discuss ze matter after John's veto. Vy disagree vith a known innocent und draw attention to vunself, if vun is trying to be subtle? Und Codine is subtle - vich suggests zat she vas thinking more about thinking zan about seeming. A guilty Codine vould be thinking about seeming.
Choey und Hophtrig appear to be ze vuns Ja'ayem tried to shield. Ios speculates zat Ja'ayem's whole plan vas to be caught. I dount zis. Firstly, it is at odds vith his own assessment of ze value of ze sympathiser, und second, at zis stage ze Possessed can afford losses even less zan ve can. So I think zat at ze start, Ja'ayem vas trying to live. Ven zat seemed hopeless, I am sure he vould zen have sought to mislead, but I do not think zat vas all his plan. Zerefore I think ze ease vith vich he could have made ze contest between himself und Choey, und ze fact zat he did not, are clues. Better zan anything else I see.
It is possible zat my instinctive trust of Hophtrig vas misplaced. All ze same, I cannot see a reason to accuse him.
In all, apart from ze three people of whose innocence I am assured, I find four zat I vish to trust, und vould struggle to justify accusing. Und Choey. Vith ze caveat zat I am unlikely to vote in opposition to our known innocents unless convinced zat zey are making a mistake, I am inclined to nominate her.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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Eliab
Shipmate
# 9153
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Graffin, though you are far cleverer than Hophtrig, Hophtrig can think of another scenario.
Could it be that the naughties see the good people sufficiently confused and sufficiently pointing themselves in the wrong direction that they thought a murder would shake things up and cause a rethinking, so left it alone for the night.
I think zis is unlikely. I think zat ze fact zat our analysis ... by vich I mean, my analysis ... about ze actions of ze sympathiser vas so entirely accurate zat ze killers are unlikely to have thought zat ve vere all safely misguided.
Also I think zat vichever vay zey vished to guide us, zere vould have been safe murders to attempt. But on zat, I think ve should respect John's view zat speculating about who exactly vas targeted und vy is more likely to assist zem zan us.
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"Perhaps there is poetic beauty in the abstract ideas of justice or fairness, but I doubt if many lawyers are moved by it"
Richard Dawkins
Posts: 4619 | From: Hampton, Middlesex, UK | Registered: Mar 2005
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
Otto thinking and thinking.
Codine:
Otto asked himself and the FBC and could not come up with much. Friend of Ios it seems.
Zapa:
innocent unreadable.
John:
being a doctor and good.
Hophtrig:
under suspicion for voting patterns. Trying not to take it personally that Hophtrig is going after Otto both in the past and presently. This makes Otto sad about Hophtrig, because Otto has not given Hophtrig cause, not at the start, and then Hophtrig kept building a case about Otto, which now Otto (sober and not hungry) sees as a way of trying to pin something on Otto. Otto being Hophtrig's target because Otto is a happy and unusual being, and the most similar to Hophtrig. Hophtrig hiding with Innocent Otto.
Eliabulon:
The Grafinn seemed to be in alliance with Hophtrig at the beginning but Otto did not see this taken up again. If Hophtrig is bad, and then Eliabulon detected this and distanced herself, or, if this was a masking of their secret Bad One Alliance (or Bad Two Alliance Otto should say), this is pretty fancy stuff. Otto thinks this is lower likelihood. And the FBC wags its feathery tail in agreement.
Choey:
seems like a Good One and Good Friend because likes Otto, but Bad Ones might dress in Good One space suits and tango dancing outfits. Mostly it seems that Choey would be innocent to Otto.
Ios:
seems to have offered no suspicion to Otto. Trying to sequence something however, which may point in a direction. Was it Otto that first became good friends with Ios or did Hophtrig. If Otto did first, then Hophtrig tagged along. This makes Otto suspect Hophtrig a little more. But if Otto made friendsies to Ios after Hophtrig this reasoning would implicate Otto, except that Otto knows he is innocent.
Otto shrugs his 3 shoulders, scratches 2 of his 3 backs himself, and the FBC scratches the third one. He taps his head. Listens to the beats of his hearts, and realizes there's a syncopation going on. He feels a song coming. It seems to have a bit of a minor key, though a lot like the Earth song "The Saints Go Marchin' In". Just sadder. Otto started to sing, and on the second way through he remembered that he had a flute and he played along the melody while imagining his voice singing the words. He wishes he had more than one mouth so he could sing and play as he tapped his 3 legs along to the time, and his hearts did a metronome beat.
♫ Otto wonders if Hophtrig's the one
Otto wonders about the second
Oh Dimthing Bus, Otto has 3 leggies
Otto is a bit confused ♫
♪♪ Otto does not know 'bout number 2
Otto asks the FBC
He still thinks about the Grafinn
He wonders 'bout the G and H thing
And thinks it probly wrong ♪♫
Otto feels uneasy about Codine
there's not too much to say-ay
Otto almost taking drugs now
the FBC not sure either ♪♪♪
Otto didn't make a verse about Ios. Maybe should if Codine and Ios are Too Good As Friends? Oh Otto doesn't know. Tries to know, but no-no.
Thinks even more and says to the FBC rather quietly. The pairings seems to answer a little bit. Ios and Choey. Hophtrig and the Grafinn. Maybe though the Secret Saver Of Lives is Choey?
Back to singing. But not dancing tonight. Otto feeling edgy and singing his fears now.
[ 31. March 2014, 22:00: Message edited by: no prophet ]
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Autenrieth Road
Shipmate
# 10509
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Posted
Ios is watching and wondering today at all that is going on. Why does Otto think I'm a friend of Codine?
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Truth
Posts: 9559 | From: starlight | Registered: Oct 2005
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ios is watching and wondering today at all that is going on. Why does Otto think I'm a friend of Codine?
The FBC helpded Otto find this:
quote:
page 8 - Codine says she thinks Ios is Innocent. If Codine is Possessed, she has just slyly appealed to Ios' sinful pride in a subtle way which will convince Ios for a long time that Codine must be innocent. (Currently, Ios has absolutely no idea any more.)
From heres.
Otto thinks it is not much to go on. And tells the FBC "go on! you silly feather friend!"
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Alban
Shipmate
# 9047
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Posted
Hophtrig has been thinking strange thoughts.
If Hophtrig is naughty, then Hophtrig's nomination of Otto was not a mistake, it was an attempt to divert attention from the naughty Reppik, and thus save Reppik's life.
If Hophtrig was naughty then, the fact that Hophtrig has not been nominating lately suggests the good people are looking in the wrong place and Hophtrig is not trying to save anyone.
Unless a naughty Hophtrig is trying to trick everyone, especially if Hophtrig says something like Hophtrig is saying here.
Hophtrig still says Hophtrig is good. Hophtrig says Hophtrig stopped nominating to let cleverer people make cleverer suggestions than Hophtrig could. Hophtrig just thinks strange thoughts sometimes, and Hophtrig cannot resist opening his Hophtrig mouth and sharing his thoughts with his friends.
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Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posts: 722 | From: Under a (long white) cloud | Registered: Feb 2005
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