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Originally posted by no prophet:
Otto is curious about why John nominated him.

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Originally posted by Ariston:
A faint haze appears at the front
I'm less sure of myself than I was before, so I'm going to watch for a bit, if anyone's expecting dramatic pronouncements. Carry on, and know you're not just being paranoid if you think somebody (or something) is watching every little thing you say.

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• The first one was originally Ios' idea: "The suspicious thing that Eliabulon has done, over and over and over, is reject all of my ideas that there might be extra layers of multiple bluff going on. Perhaps this is a big neon sign to Eliabulon's guilt: if Possessed, she herself has been doing it with many levels of multiple bluff, and would hardly want the Assembled Beings to start considering that anyone on board bus might possibly engage in multiple bluff." This has two sides. One is Occam's Razor: The simplest answer is usually the correct one. Yet the other is that we've tried Occam's Razor and both times lynched an innocent. Despite the evidence right in front of everyone that there was at least some level of double bluff going on, some have denied it. Why? To avert attention?
• The one who realized that that Crimson was a detective was smart. I realized she was, but I thought Zapaterietxe was, as well; she died because I chose the wrong one to protect. And that person was especially smart to know (or at least bet on) the fact that I wouldn't be protecting her. Who have we got who could have done this?
• The one who realized that Celandine was a detective was even smarter. I never caught her reference until she was dead. It was subtle. Who have we got who could have done this?
• This one comes from my earlier discussion about this: "Another point of surprise for me is the fact that she has not yet been targeted by the Possessed. Why not? If I were possessed and she were innocent, I would be most afraid of her because she is such an experienced bus passenger. She has, to quote my grandfather, 'been up th' crick and over th' mountain.' My only explanations at the moment are that either the Possessed are hoping we will grow restless and will lynch her, or else she is herself Possessed." I thought taking out Daisy was a good move because it left us with no leads, but why did they not attack the Grafinn? Attacking me the next night was worth a shot, since there was no telling whom I might be protecting -- even though I had already explicitly said I would be protecting myself. Attacking the Grafinn any of the past three nights would have been smart. But here she is, still alive. Why?*
• Joostein railed and raged against the Grafinn, and I see the roots of it even before the bus crashed and the roles announced. This colors what evidence Joostein turned up. However, he did have a good point or three. He speculated that Reppik's poor defense was in fact designed. He believed that a half decent Possessed team could have written Reppik a good speech, since they could collaborate and talk behind the scenes. Joostein postulated that the reason they didn't was so that the Grafinn could establish herself as an innocent early on; he believed that by doing so she would ensure her survival until the late game. He further believed that the sacrifice was unintentional at first. From my perspective, it went like this: Zapaterietxe had begun working the Reppik angle almost immediately. Reppik survived the first day, but I nominated him first thing on the second day, Zapaterietxe and I led the bandwagon, and in the middle of it all the Grafinn started waffling over whether to vote for Otto or Reppik. Joostein believed that the Grafinn decided to vote for Reppik so that she could use that as cover. Looking at this from the perspective that four days† of mayhem gives me, I think that Joostein could possibly be right for once. What if Otto is the other guilty one, and the Grafinn was forced to choose between two guilties? Or what if Otto is innocent, and the Grafinn wanted to vote for him, but felt forced by popular demand to vote for Reppik?
  
  Let's look at the voting record. The nominations on Dimthing Day Two were: Otto, nominated by Hophtrig; Reppik Tew, nominated by John the Less; Hophtrig, nominated by Otto, and of course "No Lynching" (a.k.a. TESS). At the start we had fourteen beings alive, and thus needed seven votes to lynch. Choey began the voting process by voting for Hophtrig. Ja'ayem voted for Otto, as did Hophtrig. Zapateriexte came and voted for "surprise, surprise" Reppik. Celandine also voted for Reppik. Lesley then voted for No Lynching, and then I voted for Reppik. At that point, the vote totals were: Hophtrig, 1; Otto, 2, Reppik, 3, No Lynching, 1.
  
  Ios voted for Reppik, which removed both Hophtrig and No Lynching from death row. Otto also voted for Reppik. This meant that both Otto and Reppik were possibilities, and Reppik led 5 votes to 2.
  
  Joostein voted for Otto.
  
  Eliabulon, who had been waffling for some time now, voted for Reppik. In doing so, she removed the possibility of lynching Otto. Only one more vote was needed to lynch Reppik, and Daisy flew in from no where and gave the needed vote. Reppik voted for No Lynching (before Daisy voted, as a matter of fact), and Codine voted last, for Reppik. That meant that the final numbers were: Hophtrig, 1; Otto, 3; Reppik, 8; No Lynching, 2.
  
  There are a few interesting tidbits in all this. First, Reppik's speech and vote implicate Otto. Second, the Grafinn's seeming inability to choose between Otto and Reppik could point to possession on Otto's part. Voting for Hophtrig was out of the question; Ios had already prevented Hophtrig from being lynched that day. Voting for No Lynching was also impossible, because the Grafinn had been calling for a lynching since the moment she stepped aboard‡. She really had no choice but Otto or Reppik.
• When Joostein role claimed, the Grafinn said the real doctor should counter-claim. Zapaterietxe said the real doctor should shut up. Zapaterietxe was right; although I've prevented two deaths so far, I feel I could have been much more effective if I had stayed quiet like Zapaterietxe said. The Possessed want me outed; that way they can target me and the others as they wish. This doesn't by itself implicate Eliabulon, but taken with everything else it makes sense. If she's guilty, then of course she wants a counter claim. Mine was the only power role left.

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Originally spoken by Ios:
What famous Four Days speech?

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Like Eliabulon, I tend also to think it could be a good idea to lynch someone on Day One. If we delay our first lynching until Day Two, what do we know on Day Two that we didn't know on Day One? Knowing the name of one murder victim isn't much advantage for a Day Two first lynching over a Day One first lynching.

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I can't quite work out whether it can be right for a false role claim not to be challenged. That seems weird to me. Everything is weird on this bus trip, though, so maybe you're right John.

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Originally posted by Gwai:
Interesting thinking, John. I will have to process it and re-evaluate Eliabulon to decide what I think. Only one small thing I see to disagree with: You note that Eliabulon saved Otto with her vote. Note though that she helped to lynch a Possessed person. So if she and Otto and our remaining Possessed, she was choosing to help lynch one of her comrades above another.

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Originally posted by Gwai:
Interesting thinking, John. I will have to process it and re-evaluate Eliabulon to decide what I think. Only one small thing I see to disagree with: You note that Eliabulon saved Otto with her vote. Note though that she helped to lynch a Possessed person. So if she and Otto and our remaining Possessed, she was choosing to help lynch one of her comrades above another.

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Originally posted by no prophet:
The reasoning that would vote Otto off may seem logical except for one nasty little fact of his innocence. Otto did not vote for the innocent Choey....

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Originally spoken by Otto:
Okay says Otto, I am good with Choey too. "The FBC and me", says Otto, "we can't actually know, but if Choey is innocent, Otto will cry, because Wang Ho told me so."

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Originally spoken by Ios:
I don't know if Otto is allowed to change his vote.

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Originally spoken by Dafyd:
Votes once cast cannot be changed.

Four votes for Choey. One for Codine.

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Originally spoken by Otto:
Then if Otto is innocent, you would consider Eliabulon to also be innocent?

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Originally spoken by Otto:
Which means to Otto that the guilty must be drawn from the group: Hophtrig, Codine and Ios. Otto believes Ios is innocent, which means that the guilty two are Hophtig and Codine. Otto has consulted with the FBC on this, and the FBC prompts him to say: "Hophtrig is the one to vote off this round, and Codine the next, because Otto and Ios are the innocents, and mark my word carefully, because Otto is innocent."

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Originally spoken by Otto:
The reasoning that would vote Otto off may seem logical except for one nasty little fact of his innocence. Otto did not vote for the innocent Choey....

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Originally spoken by Otto:
But seeing as this reasoning comes from the suspected guilty Codine, Otto considers that Codine is spreading FUD and trying to deflect from Codine's guilt. Which makes Otto more confident in voting Hophtrig and thinking that Codine must be the second bad one after Hoppy. So Otto's vote is cast.

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Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
John and Zapaterietxe, if we three agree to vote for someone already voted for then we can guarantee a lynching. I think that's what we need, and then another lynching next turn, and hope that the 5/6 probability comes through for us.

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Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Are we sure this isn't a case of a Possessed Hophtrig yet again finding a Being to look more Naughty than Hophtrig?

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Originally posted by Alban:
John, Hophtrig has two words of warning, meow glug.

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Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
So that's why I've waited; I was hoping Zapaterietxe could shine a bit of light on his line of thinking. I find it extremely odd that he's been silent this long.

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Originally posted by Ariston:
...[A]nd if you're beyond suspicion, you can even get away with trying silence, just to see what happens if you don't influence the proceedings.

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• Ios - this structure with its somewhat domelike shape can be called Ios' igloo if Hophtrig is no longer with you. As keeper of the HideyHole/Igloo, it is your responsibility to see that all on board have a fun place to play, a quiet place to think but most of all, a place to just be friends.
• John - This is the button that Hophtrig and Lovely Lesley pressed that started a fire which threatened to kill us all. This button is the prize for the next person who nominates a naughty who is subsequently lynched. It will not be handed out today. I give to John the solemn task of awarding this to the nominator who next sees a naughty lynched.
• Otto and Squeezy - This screwdriver is very useful, Hophtrig has been using it to repurpose parts of this bus for the entertainment of the friends. All going well, a second prize will be needed, use this screwdriver to make a second naughtynominator prize. If Hophtrig leaves, there's still some bits of bus to take apart, Otto and Squeezy could work together on this well. Might Hophtrig suggest you try the windows, if you pop the rubber gaskets and remove the anchor screws in the four corners, they will come out, etched glass always looks nice as an award.
• Zapaterietxe - If Hophtrig is going, Hophtrig will hand you the remote control to the bionic kangaroo which Hophtrig built. With this, comes the position of memorykeeper. You, Zapaterietxe, will be responsible for keeping alive the memory of the fallen. Reppik Tew and Ja'ayem, who were taken over by the naughtiness that crept aboard. The memory of Crimson and Lucy, whose cleverness saw them brutally murdered. Of Joostein, who was overtaken by Eblootia day, and in his madness, left. Of Daisy, stolen from us when we barely knew our friend. Of lovely Lesley's heroic sacrifice. And if he is gone, of Hophtrig. Yours is the responsibility for keeping these memories.
• Codine - If Hophtrig is leaving, Hophtrig will hand you this special intergalactic dictionary, Hophtrig carries this everywhere. Codine will notice that every slightly naughty word has been blacked out. Codine's are to be the words of love, encouragement and friendship. Hophtrig gives you a reminder that all aboard this bus are your friends, though the naughtiness has overtaken two of them. Amongst the accusations that will fly, Hophtrig asks you to be a voice of love.
• The Graffin, Ekaterina Eliabulon - Ekaterina will be the designated demonstrative. Hophtrig gives you, Eliabulon this hug, pass it on to all who might need one. If Hophtrig goes, there will be a few needed tonight, indeed, and The Graffin will be here to provide.

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Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
On the other hand, I have a suspicion of where to find some partridge eggs. And they're not in the place with the big neon sign that says "Don't look here! /s/ Ja'ayem S.P." And now we know what S.P. stands for, despite Eliabulon's strange and unaccountably naive reaction to Ios' parable of Second Partridge.

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