homepage
  roll on christmas  
click here to find out more about ship of fools click here to sign up for the ship of fools newsletter click here to support ship of fools
community the mystery worshipper gadgets for god caption competition foolishness features ship stuff
discussion boards live chat cafe avatars frequently-asked questions the ten commandments gallery private boards register for the boards
 
Ship of Fools
Thread closed  Thread closed


Post new thread  
Thread closed  Thread closed
My profile login | | Directory | Search | FAQs | Board home
   - Printer-friendly view Next oldest thread   Next newest thread
» Ship of Fools   » Ship's Locker   » Limbo   » Purgatory: Vote on Scottish Independence (Page 22)

 - Email this page to a friend or enemy.  
Pages in this thread: 1  2  3  ...  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  ...  28  29  30 
 
Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: Vote on Scottish Independence
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

 - Posted      Profile for Alan Cresswell   Email Alan Cresswell   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Scotland will be in the EU, although there is a very remote possibility that we'll be on a very fast track to EU re-membership.

I really think there is no certainty at all about the latter assertion, and even less about the first, at the very least until the issues of banking, currency and debt are resolved
There is certainty because no one wants Scotland to be outside the EU. Therefore, something will be sorted to make sure that doesn't happen.

There is nothing that is going to prevent resolution of issues of banking, currency and debt (other than a "no" vote, of course). Scotland can't function as an economy (in or out of the EU) without resolving those questions. Some of the details of Scottish membership of the EU are certainly going to be dependent upon the details of the resolution of currency issues, but that's the details not the big picture - which is Scotland will be in the EU.

--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
IngoB

Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700

 - Posted      Profile for IngoB   Email IngoB   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
An independent Scotland will have a functioning economy, with associated currency - it's just not certain that will be the pound or how that would relate to other nations. We will have a functioning legal system, health service, education system, welfare and benefits, and all the other services for a civilised country. Scotland will be in the EU, although there is a very remote possibility that we'll be on a very fast track to EU re-membership.

There is a very nice word for this sort of statement in German: "Zweckoptimismus". Roughly that means being optimistic in order to achieve an ulterior purpose / aim / goal, not because of a reasonable evaluation of known circumstance.

The only positive I see is that Scotland might be "too big too fail", i.e., the rUK and the EU might decide that they cannot allow Scotland to become a basket case. But I'm not so sure about even that, frankly. Lots of countries are left to fail, and the failure of Scotland would be rather convenient for a good many players on the European stage...

--------------------
They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear

Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
North East Quine

Curious beastie
# 13049

 - Posted      Profile for North East Quine   Email North East Quine   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
I find the youthful enthusiasm of the yes vote alluring, but anyone voting who doesn't realise it's a complete leap in the dark is going to have a rude awakening.
Some people feel that remaining in the UK is a leap in the dark. Given that Scotland is politically to the left of England, the spectre of UKIP looms large; what if we're part of a country that swings even further to the right? There's considerable apprehension about that.

Plus, Scotland does want to remain in the EU. But we're part of a country which is having a referendum on EU membership in 2017. So we have no guarantees about continued membership of the EU if we vote Yes, but we similarly have no guarantees about continued membership of the EU if we vote No. Cameron is assuring the Scots that the EU referendum will result in a Yes vote, but he was also blithely confident a few months ago that the Scottish referendum would be an overwhelming no.

Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There is certainty because no one wants Scotland to be outside the EU.

Spain?

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Spawn
Shipmate
# 4867

 - Posted      Profile for Spawn   Email Spawn   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There is certainty because no one wants Scotland to be outside the EU. Therefore, something will be sorted to make sure that doesn't happen.

Ahem ..... Spain doesn't want Scotland as an independent country inside the EU. You are assuming that everybody will bend over backwards to accommodate Scotland. If so, they'll want their pound of flesh. This is all very naive.

[crossposted with Eutychus]

[ 16. September 2014, 08:28: Message edited by: Spawn ]

Posts: 3447 | From: North Devon | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Plus, Scotland does want to remain in the EU

If Scotland wants to become an independent nation, it can't remain in anything. It has to start again.

quote:
But we're part of a country which is having a referendum on EU membership in 2017.
It says here that this is proposed. Do you know something I don't?

quote:
So we have no guarantees about continued membership of the EU if we vote Yes, but we similarly have no guarantees about continued membership of the EU if we vote No.
If you (plural) vote yes, you have instant uncertainty. I haven't seen anyone give anything approaching a firm assurance about EU membership that is grounded in fact.

That might be unpalatable, but I think it's the truth.

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
North East Quine

Curious beastie
# 13049

 - Posted      Profile for North East Quine   Email North East Quine   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
Yes, it's a proposed referendum in 2017, but the assumption here is that it will happen. The CBI in Scotland have asked Cameron for reassurances about continued EU membership post 2017 and he has been evasive.

[ 16. September 2014, 08:44: Message edited by: North East Quine ]

Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007  |  IP: Logged
Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

 - Posted      Profile for Marvin the Martian     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Both would be new countries

No they wouldn't. It doesn't matter how many times you say it, it isn't true.

--------------------
Hail Gallaxhar

Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
Spawn
Shipmate
# 4867

 - Posted      Profile for Spawn   Email Spawn   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Yes, it's a proposed referendum in 2017, but the assumption here is that it will happen. The CBI in Scotland have asked Cameron for reassurances about continued EU membership post 2017 and he has been evasive.

It'll only happen if the Tories are returned. Happily for you it is extremely likely that UKIP will split the Tory vote
Posts: 3447 | From: North Devon | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Matt Black

Shipmate
# 2210

 - Posted      Profile for Matt Black   Email Matt Black   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
But it's equally the stuff of fairyland that rUK will take an aggressive no-holds-barred approach determined to punish the Scots for daring to leave.

(X-Post, following on from LeRoc.)

Not an aggressive so much as getting the best deal for the rUK eg: Scotland assuming its share of the debt burden.
The thing is that if you listen to Nationalist propaganda about the English, or at least about the Westminster Elite, is that they are a bunch of heartless effete toffs who are bleeding Scotland dry and if only Scotland could rise up and be a nation again it could fling off the shackles and embrace her true destiny as a free nation.

However, upon asserting her destiny as a free nation the English and the Westminster elite will fall over themselves to establish a currency union and fast track Scotland into NATO.

This appears to be a claim hitherto unique in the annals of nationalist propaganda. I don't recall the aria in Nabucco, right after the chorus of the Hebrew Slaves (representing the Italians under the Hapsburgs), when Moses suddenly appears on stage and announces that the Children of Israel and Pharaoh will sign a Customs Union or the bit when Byron is ruminating upon Marathon looking out upon the Sea and looks forward to the day when an independent Greece and the Ottoman Empire will share a currency. For that matter my copy of Herodotus appears to lack the passage when Xerxes threatens to turn the sky over Thermopylae dark with his arrows and Leonidas ripostes that it will be all the better for signing a treaty of mutual defence between Sparta and the Persian Empire in the shade.

If the English are that reasonable then why should the Scots want independence? If the English are so unreasonable that only independence will do then the Scots should really be wargaming worst case scenarios, rather than asserting that all will be well in the best of all possible worlds?

[Overused]

--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Yes, it's a proposed referendum in 2017, but the assumption here is that it will happen.

As several have pointed out, what is astounding from an outsider's perspective is the apparent confusion on the "yes" side between certainties (which is, for instance, how you put this prospect in your previous post) and assumptions.

As I said, I find the "yes" narrative compelling, but I also find it devious in that it seems constantly to be presenting certainties riding on the back of massive assumptions along the lines that "something will be sorted", to quote Alan Cresswell.
quote:
The CBI in Scotland have asked Cameron for reassurances about continued EU membership post 2017 and he has been evasive.
If there is the prospect of a referendum, he can hardly be categorical, can he?

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

 - Posted      Profile for Alan Cresswell   Email Alan Cresswell   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There is certainty because no one wants Scotland to be outside the EU. Therefore, something will be sorted to make sure that doesn't happen.

Ahem ..... Spain doesn't want Scotland as an independent country inside the EU.
I thought Spain didn't want Catalonia to seek independence. Therefore, Spain would prefer it if the Scots didn't vote Yes and set a precedent for other regions in Europe to seek independence. An Independent Scotland outside the EU would be just as bad for the Spanish as Scotland inside the EU.

--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
# 8978

 - Posted      Profile for TurquoiseTastic   Email TurquoiseTastic   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
Should the vote be YES is there a chance that rUK could argue that it, too, is a new entity and hence outside the EU? Could this be seen as a possible "escape route" from the EU for rUK?
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740

 - Posted      Profile for quetzalcoatl   Email quetzalcoatl   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
One thing that that seems to be amazing people who are in Scotland, is the breadth of democratic discussion going on, in the streets, the pubs, people's homes. It's as if the grass-roots have woken up from their apathy.

I suppose it's too much to expect that this can be carried on after the vote - but maybe with a yes vote, it would be.

--------------------
I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

 - Posted      Profile for Alan Cresswell   Email Alan Cresswell   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Both would be new countries

No they wouldn't. It doesn't matter how many times you say it, it isn't true.
Both would be countries reverting to national borders abolished in 1707, so you're right they wouldn't be new countries.

Actually, not quite true because the borders in Ireland aren't the same. So, Scotland returns to 1707 borders and the rest of the former UK becomes a state with borders no previous nation has had.

--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

 - Posted      Profile for Marvin the Martian     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
You are assuming that everybody will bend over backwards to accommodate Scotland.

This is the primary failing of the Yes camp as a whole. They seem to be assuming that everybody else in the world loves Scotland as much as they do, and will move heaven and earth to ensure a successful and prosperous Scotland even if such moves are detrimental to their own interests. There's a profound sense of entitlement, as if all these things are Scotland's by right and nobody else could possibly disagree. If independence becomes a reality, they're quickly going to learn that the rUK and EU don't need Scotland half as much as Scotland will need them.

And I say that as one who, if I lived in Scotland, would be voting "yes" on Thursday.

--------------------
Hail Gallaxhar

Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Therefore, Spain would prefer it if the Scots didn't vote Yes and set a precedent for other regions in Europe to seek independence. An Independent Scotland outside the EU would be just as bad for the Spanish as Scotland inside the EU.

I agree that Spain would prefer Scotland to vote No, because that would offer a favourable precedent to them re: Catalonia.

If Scotland votes Yes, of course it is likely to encourage Catalonia, and Spain might face a greater chance of Catalonian independence (although they are less likely in constitutional terms as I understand it).

But above all, what your post does not concede and which appears quite obvious to me is that in the event of a Yes vote, Spain will not be keen to agree to Scottish EU membership because that would offer an even greater incentive to Catalonian nationalists to secede.

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Jane R
Shipmate
# 331

 - Posted      Profile for Jane R   Email Jane R   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
NEQ:
quote:
The CBI in Scotland have asked Cameron for reassurances about continued EU membership post 2017 and he has been evasive.
Well, he can hardly come right out and say 'We're expecting everyone to vote to stay in, and that's what I'm going to be campaigning for, but we've promised the referendum to keep the rest of the EU worried and win back some UKIP voters,' can he? It would be all over the front page of the Sun next day.
Posts: 3958 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

 - Posted      Profile for Marvin the Martian     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Both would be new countries

No they wouldn't. It doesn't matter how many times you say it, it isn't true.
Both would be countries reverting to national borders abolished in 1707, so you're right they wouldn't be new countries.

Actually, not quite true because the borders in Ireland aren't the same. So, Scotland returns to 1707 borders and the rest of the former UK becomes a state with borders no previous nation has had.

Yes, in that sense they would be new countries. OK.

But in the legal sense that we were actually talking about (i.e. treaties, membership of international organisations, diplomatic relations, etc.) the UK would continue to be the same country it always was, with all the same agreements and arrangements in place, and Scotland would become a completely new country that would have to negotiate everything from scratch.

--------------------
Hail Gallaxhar

Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
Matt Black

Shipmate
# 2210

 - Posted      Profile for Matt Black   Email Matt Black   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
That is still assuming that Scotland will actually be leaving the EU. I don't take that as a foregone conclusion, the vote is whether to leave the UK.


Scotland will automatically leave the EU the moment it leaves the UK unless and until a Treaty of Accession is agreed between it and all EU member states.

--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740

 - Posted      Profile for quetzalcoatl   Email quetzalcoatl   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
NEQ:
quote:
The CBI in Scotland have asked Cameron for reassurances about continued EU membership post 2017 and he has been evasive.
Well, he can hardly come right out and say 'We're expecting everyone to vote to stay in, and that's what I'm going to be campaigning for, but we've promised the referendum to keep the rest of the EU worried and win back some UKIP voters,' can he? It would be all over the front page of the Sun next day.
And also "to placate my Euro-phobic MPs, who want my guts for garters".

--------------------
I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011  |  IP: Logged
orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

 - Posted      Profile for orfeo   Author's homepage   Email orfeo   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
I think it's relatively likely that Scotland would be labelled as a 'new country', but I don't think that's a slam dunk by any means. It is one of the constituent kingdoms of the United Kingdom, with a recognised status as such.

For that reason Scotland's independence is capable of being seen as a 'break-up' (as the split of Czechoslovakia was) rather than a 'break-off'.

Against that is the fact that the break is arguably only being determined in Scotland. But even that isn't clear-cut: the vote might only be in Scotland, but the UK as a whole will be involved in translating that vote into an actual legal state of independence. The vote isn't a unilateral action, it's something that the leaders of the United Kingdom have agreed to and are actively involved in (in stark contrast to Crimea's vote to leave Ukraine).

[ 16. September 2014, 09:12: Message edited by: orfeo ]

--------------------
Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

 - Posted      Profile for Alan Cresswell   Email Alan Cresswell   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
But in the legal sense that we were actually talking about (i.e. treaties, membership of international organisations, diplomatic relations, etc.) the UK would continue to be the same country it always was, with all the same agreements and arrangements in place, and Scotland would become a completely new country that would have to negotiate everything from scratch.

Why? Didn't the people of Scotland elect representatives to the Government (or Opposition) that negotiated and signed those treaties? Did not the UK government enter those organisations on behalf of all the people of the UK, not just those of England, Wales and Northern Ireland? What makes Scotland so special that our government is not a continuation of the UK government in Scotland, with all the associated legal status, yet the government in the rest of the UK is seen as a continuation of the UK government everywhere except Scotland?

I know that has been asserted repeatedly. But, no one has (to my knowledge) explained why the Westminster government is privilaged in this regard. It better be a reason that's a darn sight better than just size.

--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
IngoB

Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700

 - Posted      Profile for IngoB   Email IngoB   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There is certainty because no one wants Scotland to be outside the EU. Therefore, something will be sorted to make sure that doesn't happen.

It is one of the developmentally earliest theories of mind (ToM) that "I want to have X" means "everybody else wants me to have X". Most people grow out of this simple ToM by the age of six, and it is not a particularly good predictor for high politics. Seriously.

No EU nation which has a region vying for independence will want Scotland to have an easy time joining the EU. And there are quite a few contested regions in the EU, not just in Spain. Given that Scotland has economic "whatever" status for most of Europe, most other nations will simply see this as an opportunity for some international power play.

The best shot at EU membership would be if Scotland ends up being fleeced and the rUK significantly reduced in political influence. That's the sort of "win - win" than influential neutral nations like Germany will probably be looking for. And Germany certainly could push Spain and Italy out of the way, maybe also France. Of course, you can expect democratic window dressing for the Machiavellian moves. Politicians are good at that, it's their job...

--------------------
They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear

Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Matt Black

Shipmate
# 2210

 - Posted      Profile for Matt Black   Email Matt Black   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Should the vote be YES is there a chance that rUK could argue that it, too, is a new entity and hence outside the EU? Could this be seen as a possible "escape route" from the EU for rUK?

No - the precedent for this is the RoI: there was no change in the international/supra-national status of the then 'rUK' when the 26 counties of Ireland left eg: the then 'rUK' didn't have to apply for readmission to the UN in 1949.

--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
An die Freude
Shipmate
# 14794

 - Posted      Profile for An die Freude   Email An die Freude   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
That is still assuming that Scotland will actually be leaving the EU. I don't take that as a foregone conclusion, the vote is whether to leave the UK.


Scotland will automatically leave the EU the moment it leaves the UK unless and until a Treaty of Accession is agreed between it and all EU member states.
I asked this before but without a reply: will the European citizenship that the Scottish individuals hold be withdrawn? That would be an unprecedented move with far-reaching legal consequences. I can see states and bodies being sued in Strasbourg over this sort of thing.

--------------------
"I too am not a bit tamed, I too am untranslatable."
Walt Whitman
Formerly JFH

Posts: 851 | From: Proud Socialist Monarchy of Sweden | Registered: May 2009  |  IP: Logged
Matt Black

Shipmate
# 2210

 - Posted      Profile for Matt Black   Email Matt Black   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
Correct: unless and until they negotiate accession to the EU, residents of Scotland will lose 'EU citizenship' on independence. I'm not sure that will result in successful lawsuits as no government will have made the decision to withdraw that: it is simply an automatic consequence of independence in the same way that loss of British citizenship will be.

[ 16. September 2014, 09:24: Message edited by: Matt Black ]

--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Spawn
Shipmate
# 4867

 - Posted      Profile for Spawn   Email Spawn   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I know that has been asserted repeatedly. But, no one has (to my knowledge) explained why the Westminster government is privilaged in this regard. It better be a reason that's a darn sight better than just size.

It is quite simple really. Scotland is voting to secede from the UK. If Scotland's vote leaves rUK's status in doubt as the successor state then we should have a right to vote.
Posts: 3447 | From: North Devon | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
IngoB

Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700

 - Posted      Profile for IngoB   Email IngoB   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I know that has been asserted repeatedly. But, no one has (to my knowledge) explained why the Westminster government is privilaged in this regard. It better be a reason that's a darn sight better than just size.

I wasn't aware that Scotland was going to become the UK, with the rest of the UK becoming independent nations. If that's the case, then I (and many, many other people...) indeed have to revise my judgement of the political consequences.

Apart from the fact that the people in Westminster just are the legal entity that actually signed the EU treaties, and will be considered to remain that entity by any sane person if Scotland secedes, size indeed does matter in international politics. It really, really does.

--------------------
They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear

Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
But, no one has (to my knowledge) explained why the Westminster government is privilaged in this regard. It better be a reason that's a darn sight better than just size.

Continuity?

I could see the case for this being seen as a break-up rather than a break-away if the UK had at some prior point adopted the same level of devolved government in England as in Wales, Scotland or NI. It has not, and the result is that Westminster lays a better claim to continuity than anywhere else.

[multi x-post]

[ 16. September 2014, 09:24: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Correct: unless and until they negotiate accession to the EU, residents of Scotland will lose 'EU citizenship' on independence.

I'm not sure about that. I would have thought that as long as you had a UK passport and the UK was in the EU, then you would retain 'EU citizenship'. You'd just happen to be resident in a non-EU state.

[ 16. September 2014, 09:26: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Matt Black

Shipmate
# 2210

 - Posted      Profile for Matt Black   Email Matt Black   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
And because there is no mutuality in the decision to secede: the separatists only have a say in Scotland, not rUK.

[cp - to Eutychus: post-independence you would have no automatic right to a UK passport, unless that was agreed between the Scottish government and the UK government; something else the separatists haven't thought through or explained...]

[ 16. September 2014, 09:28: Message edited by: Matt Black ]

--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Albertus
Shipmate
# 13356

 - Posted      Profile for Albertus     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
How long have the Scots had to prepare for this referendum? Eighteen months at least. And two days before the vote, they don't know what the ersults of independence might be and the Yes camp are sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la can't hear you whenever anyone suggests that there might be the odd complication.
Pathetic. And the Scots were supposed to be the hard headed practical doers in this kingdom.

Posts: 6498 | From: Y Sowth | Registered: Jan 2008  |  IP: Logged
Matt Black

Shipmate
# 2210

 - Posted      Profile for Matt Black   Email Matt Black   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
[Big Grin]

--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
[cp - to Eutychus: post-independence you would have no automatic right to a UK passport, unless that was agreed between the Scottish government and the UK government; something else the separatists haven't thought through or explained...]

I agree it's inadequately thought through.

The first research I did on this topic was to check that I wouldn't be able to collect another nationality by virtue of my Scottish-born grandfather.

AFAICS, current UK passport-holders would continue to hold British citizenship, and unless UK law changed dramatically, they would be entitled to renew them indefinitely. Their children (but not grandchildren) would be entitled to a UK passport - for the UK, this is dependent on parents' nationality and not place of birth. (I have dual nationality and so do my kids, all of whom were born in France).

Presumably, from midnight on any putative independence day, any newborn north of the border would be entitled to Scottish nationality.

Whether it could hold dual nationality or not would depend on rulings by both rUK and Scotland.

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
IngoB

Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700

 - Posted      Profile for IngoB   Email IngoB   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Correct: unless and until they negotiate accession to the EU, residents of Scotland will lose 'EU citizenship' on independence. I'm not sure that will result in successful lawsuits as no government will have made the decision to withdraw that: it is simply an automatic consequence of independence in the same way that loss of British citizenship will be.

I don't think that it will play quite like that in practice. There will be plenty of Scots now living and working in the UK and EU based on their current citizenship status. They will likely maintain their right of residence and work through some "emergency provisions", quite possibly by a quick EU agreement affirming their status quo for some transition period (say five years at least). It is highly unlikely that Scots all across the UK and EU will be arrested as now illegal immigrants and deported to Scotland on the day of independence... Stomping on people like that is in nobody's interest. However, if Scotland cannot come to some agreements with the UK and EU, respectively, then indeed Scottish citizens will lose their ability to simply move to these countries and start working there.

--------------------
They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear

Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740

 - Posted      Profile for quetzalcoatl   Email quetzalcoatl   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
How long have the Scots had to prepare for this referendum? Eighteen months at least. And two days before the vote, they don't know what the ersults of independence might be and the Yes camp are sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la can't hear you whenever anyone suggests that there might be the odd complication.
Pathetic. And the Scots were supposed to be the hard headed practical doers in this kingdom.

And ten days before the vote, the no camp start to offer goodies and sweeties, and have front page proclamations signed by 3 leaders. Did somebody mention panic?

--------------------
I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011  |  IP: Logged
An die Freude
Shipmate
# 14794

 - Posted      Profile for An die Freude   Email An die Freude   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Correct: unless and until they negotiate accession to the EU, residents of Scotland will lose 'EU citizenship' on independence. I'm not sure that will result in successful lawsuits as no government will have made the decision to withdraw that: it is simply an automatic consequence of independence in the same way that loss of British citizenship will be.

I do think EU citizenship is a different thing than a national citizenship, and it has never before been lost. Given that this is an unprecedented thing, I think there will at least be some legal debate on how to interpret that - as is always the case with international law.

I do think Brussels has an interest in individuals being seen as the constituents of the EU rather than the states, but that is of course under much debate. Note though that breakaway nations "taking over" membership in international organizations is not unprecedented. Whereas modern history is short and as such all examples are different, we could talk of how PR China took over the Nationalist China seat on the Security Council meaning the membership switched hands to a breakaway group. Naturally, this is not splitting up the membership, however, it could be interpreted to that direction in a completely unprecedented situation. PR China did not need to apply to join, but could declare themselves to be (the) rightful descendants of a member nation. I believe there are more cases to similar effects.

--------------------
"I too am not a bit tamed, I too am untranslatable."
Walt Whitman
Formerly JFH

Posts: 851 | From: Proud Socialist Monarchy of Sweden | Registered: May 2009  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

 - Posted      Profile for Alan Cresswell   Email Alan Cresswell   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
[cp - to Eutychus: post-independence you would have no automatic right to a UK passport, unless that was agreed between the Scottish government and the UK government; something else the separatists haven't thought through or explained...]

The position of the Scottish government on passports and citizenship is clearly detailed in the white paper. Of course, it will also be a subject for discussion with other parties (eg: whether Scotland issues EU passports will depend on whether Scotland is in EU). But, that one at least has been well thought through and explained - probably too well as it didn't feature in the campaign, presumably because Better Together couldn't find fault with it.

--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
And ten days before the vote, the no camp start to offer goodies and sweeties, and have front page proclamations signed by 3 leaders. Did somebody mention panic?

The No camp have been indescribably clumsy and non-PR savvy, I agree (starting off with allowing the question to be framed as Yes for independence).

However, their failure in communications should not be confused with a lack of substantive objections.

[ 16. September 2014, 09:42: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
IngoB

Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700

 - Posted      Profile for IngoB   Email IngoB   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
AFAICS, current UK passport-holders would continue to hold British citizenship, and unless UK law changed dramatically, they would be entitled to renew them indefinitely.

This seems weird to me, as if having a passport determines what citizenship one can hold, rather than vice versa. Surely if one loses one's citizenship one loses one's right to have a passport of that nation? And if secession does not abolish the right to citizenship in the nation one secedes from, then what ever does?

I'm also not sure whether the UK is free to simply negotiate a UK citizenship for a non-EU Scotland. Perhaps this is a loophole in EU regulations, but if that is possible then a single EU nation could partly integrate a random non-EU nation into the EU without any agreement by other EU nations. They could simply grant their citizenship to everybody in that non-EU nation, thereby de facto making everybody in it an EU citizens. I have a hard time believing that this is not outlawed somehow...

--------------------
They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear

Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
But, that one at least has been well thought through and explained - probably too well as it didn't feature in the campaign, presumably because Better Together couldn't find fault with it.

Well it turns out I might qualify for Scottish citizenship after all
[Yipee] (not sure if dead grandparents count).

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Matt Black

Shipmate
# 2210

 - Posted      Profile for Matt Black   Email Matt Black   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
The point is that none of us know how this is going to work in the event of a 'yes' vote on Thursday: assumptions there are a-plenty, but nothing concrete.

--------------------
"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
LeRoc

Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216

 - Posted      Profile for LeRoc     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Doc Tor: You mean, like it did the former Communist accession states?

The rules will happily be broken if necessity requires it.

You're right to bring up this example. I do think that those were different times though. I agree that there was something of an irrational urge to grant them membership, without looking at the economic consequences too closely. But it is exactly because many people now feel that this was a mistake, and that's exactly why the EU will want to look at Scotland's economical state very closely. Add to this the euro crisis of the last couple of years. And there isn't an irrational movement to grant Scotland membership whatever will happen now; in some of the bigger countries it's quite to the contrary.

Like others have said on this thread, at this point there is no clarity about who the monetary authority of Scotland will be, what will be its debt ... My estimation is that the EU will wait for clarity on this before doing anything.

quote:
Alan Cresswell: An Independent Scotland outside the EU would be just as bad for the Spanish as Scotland inside the EU.
That's not true. If Spain concedes membership to Scotland easily (and yes, they will have a veto on this), they'll lose all of their bargaining chips with Catalunya. If they make it difficult for Scotland to join, or manage that it joins under unfavourable conditions, it can say to the separatists: "See? This will happen if you secede."

Once again, I'm slightly in favour of a yes vote, and I'd have nothing against Scotland joining the EU, for whatever that's worth. I don't think some of the expectations of the yes camp are realistic though.

--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Clint Boggis
Shipmate
# 633

 - Posted      Profile for Clint Boggis   Author's homepage   Email Clint Boggis   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
But in the legal sense that we were actually talking about (i.e. treaties, membership of international organisations, diplomatic relations, etc.) the UK would continue to be the same country it always was, with all the same agreements and arrangements in place, and Scotland would become a completely new country that would have to negotiate everything from scratch.

Why? Didn't the people of Scotland elect representatives to the Government (or Opposition) that negotiated and signed those treaties? Did not the UK government enter those organisations on behalf of all the people of the UK, not just those of England, Wales and Northern Ireland? What makes Scotland so special that our government is not a continuation of the UK government in Scotland, with all the associated legal status, yet the government in the rest of the UK is seen as a continuation of the UK government everywhere except Scotland?

I know that has been asserted repeatedly. But, no one has (to my knowledge) explained why the Westminster government is privilaged in this regard. It better be a reason that's a darn sight better than just size.

Of course the UK will retain all it's powers and treaty obligations, not as a privilege, just simple fact. If Scotland leaves the UK, the UK remains as a nation in the eyes of the world, but a bit smaller with an additional international border.

Imagine that Ukraine was an EU member. If a part breaks away as Crimea has done, would you require Ukraine to renegotiate its membership?

[ 16. September 2014, 09:59: Message edited by: Clint Boggis ]

Posts: 1505 | From: south coast | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

 - Posted      Profile for Eutychus   Author's homepage     Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
Surely if one loses one's citizenship one loses one's right to have a passport of that nation? And if secession does not abolish the right to citizenship in the nation one secedes from, then what ever does?

As far as I know, if you already hold a UK passport, the status of wherever you happen to be residing is not going to affect your right to that passport.

Residents of an independent Scotland who don't hold passports or national ID cards (which is of course the norm where I am) should still be able to claim a UK passport if they fulfil the same conditions as, say, my children born in France, which would include a parent born in what was the UK.

I think that in this instance, the issues of outstanding rights to British citizenship would probably get resolved over time. The challenges for a new Scottish citizenship would be greater - not least diplomatic assistance abroad, as has been already pointed out. These multiply massively if the happy assumption of ongoing EU membership is discarded.

[fixed mayhem]

[ 16. September 2014, 10:02: Message edited by: Eutychus ]

--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Gracie
Shipmate
# 3870

 - Posted      Profile for Gracie   Email Gracie   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I do think EU citizenship is a different thing than a national citizenship...

As I understand it, EU citizenship exists only by virtue of citizenship of a member state. It is not open to citizens of non-member states.

--------------------
When someone is convinced he’s an Old Testament prophet there’s not a lot you can do with him rationally. - Sine

Posts: 1090 | From: En lieu sûr | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
IngoB

Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700

 - Posted      Profile for IngoB   Email IngoB   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I do think EU citizenship is a different thing than a national citizenship, and it has never before been lost. Given that this is an unprecedented thing, I think there will at least be some legal debate on how to interpret that - as is always the case with international law.

I don't think so. EU law is rather clear:
quote:
Consolidated versions of the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union
Article 20
1. Citizenship of the Union is hereby established. Every person holding the nationality of a Member State shall be a citizen of the Union. Citizenship of the Union shall be additional to and not replace national citizenship.

EU citizenship is based on having the nationality of a member state, and does not replace national citizenship. A non-EU Scotland will not be a member state, and its national citizens will hence not have EU citizenship. Their loss of EU citizenship is automatic, since there is no such thing as a EU citizenship independent of national citizenship. It has no status other than as an addition based on the membership of that nation in the EU.

--------------------
They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear

Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
seekingsister
Shipmate
# 17707

 - Posted      Profile for seekingsister   Email seekingsister   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
AFAICS, current UK passport-holders would continue to hold British citizenship, and unless UK law changed dramatically, they would be entitled to renew them indefinitely. Their children (but not grandchildren) would be entitled to a UK passport - for the UK, this is dependent on parents' nationality and not place of birth. (I have dual nationality and so do my kids, all of whom were born in France).

I think you've got this slightly backwards.

If your parents are citizens then you get a right to citizenship as well. It has nothing to do with the passport you hold. It's not automatic either, the children would have to apply for it. So in a generation there may be lots of Scottish citizens who qualify to be British but do not take it up. The next generation therefore would have even fewer British citizens if their parents never went for it.

According to
BBC News UK passports will be valid until expiry, which does not mean they will be renewed indefinitely.

It's likely that Scotland will require that all who take up Scottish citizenship post-independence travel primarily on their Scottish passport, meaning that people may end up choosing to renew only the Scottish one due to cost and effort. This doesn't mean they've lost British citizenship though, just that they don't have a passport.

[ 16. September 2014, 10:01: Message edited by: seekingsister ]

Posts: 1371 | From: London | Registered: May 2013  |  IP: Logged
An die Freude
Shipmate
# 14794

 - Posted      Profile for An die Freude   Email An die Freude   Send new private message       Edit/delete post 
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
Imagine that Ukraine was an EU member. If a part breaks away as Crimea has done, would you require Ukraine to renegotiate its membership?

Please don't casually compare Scotland and Crimea as it makes your post look like Russian psyops.

--------------------
"I too am not a bit tamed, I too am untranslatable."
Walt Whitman
Formerly JFH

Posts: 851 | From: Proud Socialist Monarchy of Sweden | Registered: May 2009  |  IP: Logged



Pages in this thread: 1  2  3  ...  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  ...  28  29  30 
 
Post new thread  
Thread closed  Thread closed
Open thread   Feature thread   Move thread   Delete thread Next oldest thread   Next newest thread
 - Printer-friendly view
Go to:

Contact us | Ship of Fools | Privacy statement

© Ship of Fools 2016

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classicTM 6.5.0

 
follow ship of fools on twitter
buy your ship of fools postcards
sip of fools mugs from your favourite nautical website
 
 
  ship of fools