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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: Ferguson and its implications
Byron
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A no-case-to-answer ruling comes at the end of the prosecution's evidence: it means there's no prima facie case been made out. But to get to that stage, first there must be probable cause.

Contradictory witnesses can easily be reason to decide there isn't any. Looking at the evidence, to I reasonably believe that Wilson committed a crime? No, I don't. The forensics matched his statements, witnesses admitted they didn't see what they initially claimed they saw.

Can I suspect that he's guilty? Sure, but people don't get sent to trial on mere suspicion.

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orfeo

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
There is a difference between no case to answer, and a low chance of a guilty verdict. There is self-evidently a thing to be explained, he shot an unarmed man. Now he, and the prosecutor and the grand jury, think he has a good explanation - but that doesn't mean he has no case to answer.

It means exactly that. If a finding of self-defence is inevitable given the burden of proof, which requires self-defence to be disproved beyond reasonable doubt, then there is no case to answer.
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Byron
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Another issue for those who want this to go to trial: what exactly would be gained by a prosecution case in open court?

Prosecution witnesses cross-examined? That wouldn't be to find the truth, it'd be to discredit them. In any case, grand jurors already asked questions.

Assuming it doesn't get kicked with a directed verdict, you get the defense. Again, this isn't trying to find the truth, it's trying to make out justification (self-defense), and further discredit the prosecution.

End result: exactly the same thing, acquittal. Gains: none I can see. Adversarial trials aren't truth seeking exercises; they're a slightly more civilized form of combat.

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orfeo

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I have to say, I am bit mystified why this case is exciting so much commentary, when the grounds for a conviction are so much weaker than, say the Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman case, to the extent that is drowning discussion of the death of a 12-year-old boy with a toy gun.

If you wanted an emblematic case for the problems with police conduct, that is a far, far better candidate. Unlike Martin or Brown, that child was not an actual threat in any way, and the gap between the officer's arrival and the child's death is alarmingly small. That case poses FAR more questions about the quality of police procedures and training.

Surely, if we're going to start addressing this problem, let's start by solving the problem of harmless kids playing with toy guns getting killed before trying to solve the problem of large males committing robbery and assault getting killed. In an ideal world, neither should be killed, but it's fairly obvious to me which one ought to be more in the control of the police and cries out for remedial action.

So why are people not talking about it as much? Call me cynical, but I suspect it's because the authorities are seen to be taking the case seriously. People are fine with the authorities investigating these cases so long as they come to the 'right' conclusions.

This is pretty much why I throw up my hands in despair at there ever being any systemic change. Because even if the officer in Cleveland is disciplined or charged or whatever, the child is still dead. It is every bit as bad that this happened regardless of the consequences for the individual police officer.

Everyone seems so damned distracted by arguing the intricate details of individual cases that don't go the way they want, that they never have time to talk about how to stop the cases before they happen. I've seen the idea that a trial would be a step towards stopping future incidents, but frankly I think that's rubbish. Not even a conviction is a step towards stopping future incidents.

Individual cases are just media fodder. Setting out all the details of an individual case is SEXY. We lap it up. Real change is going to be boring and quiet and happen in meetings and back rooms and a lot harder work. The trial system is simply not interested in questions like "how do we stop similar tragedies in the future", it just makes a nice shiny distraction from the important things while people endlessly debate with hindsight whether the actors should have behaved different from how they actually did and decided which witness they find credible.

[ 27. November 2014, 23:37: Message edited by: orfeo ]

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Byron
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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
I have to say, I am bit mystified why this case is exciting so much commentary, when the grounds for a conviction are so much weaker than, say the Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman case, to the extent that is drowning discussion of the death of a 12-year-old boy with a toy gun. [...]

The Zimmerman case is a good example of the pitfalls of sending a weak case to trial. Did airing the facts in open court bring catharsis? Hell no, it led to equal fury, in large part 'cause few people actually followed the details. All that mattered was the result.

The popular perception is still that "Zimmerman stalked Martin, then murdered him, and got away with it," instead of what emerged at trial (Zimmerman was jumped by Martin, pinned down, beaten, and fired when Martin went for his sidearm).

When people's minds are made up, trials don't help.
quote:
[...] Everyone seems so damned distracted by arguing the intricate details of individual cases that don't go the way they want, that they never have time to talk about how to stop the cases before they happen. I've seen the idea that a trial would be a step towards stopping future incidents, but frankly I think that's rubbish. Not even a conviction is a step towards stopping future incidents. [...]
Couldn't agree more. That's why so many people don't look at the evidence. They're fitting it to a prior agenda. I know it's easier to fight for a cause via concrete examples, but it's crucial to pick the right ones, and ensure the facts fit the agenda.
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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
If you wanted an emblematic case for the problems with police conduct, that is a far, far better candidate. Unlike Martin or Brown, that child was not an actual threat in any way, and the gap between the officer's arrival and the child's death is alarmingly small. That case poses FAR more questions about the quality of police procedures and training...

So why are people not talking about it as much? Call me cynical, but I suspect it's because the authorities are seen to be taking the case seriously. People are fine with the authorities investigating these cases so long as they come to the 'right' conclusions.

Well, yes. People tend to get more outraged when they perceive the authorities are sitting back and doing nothing to stop and injustice then they do when the authorities are taking a perceived injustice seriously and looking into the situation. Call me crazy, but that seems appropriate to me.


quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
This is pretty much why I throw up my hands in despair at there ever being any systemic change. Because even if the officer in Cleveland is disciplined or charged or whatever, the child is still dead. It is every bit as bad that this happened regardless of the consequences for the individual police officer.

Everyone seems so damned distracted by arguing the intricate details of individual cases that don't go the way they want, that they never have time to talk about how to stop the cases before they happen. I've seen the idea that a trial would be a step towards stopping future incidents, but frankly I think that's rubbish. Not even a conviction is a step towards stopping future incidents.

Individual cases are just media fodder. Setting out all the details of an individual case is SEXY. We lap it up. Real change is going to be boring and quiet and happen in meetings and back rooms and a lot harder work. The trial system is simply not interested in questions like "how do we stop similar tragedies in the future", it just makes a nice shiny distraction from the important things while people endlessly debate with hindsight whether the actors should have behaved different from how they actually did and decided which witness they find credible.

Again, you seem to be completely missing the point that knowing the particulars of the individual situations is necessary in order to correctly diagnose the problem and come to that broader preventative solution you seek. There's no point getting a bunch of people together in a board room to talk about racism if the real problem turns out to be arming police with military weaponry-- or to talk about realistic toy guns if the problem is training. We HAVE to investigate and talk about the individual situations first in order to discover the broader trends that can be addressed in those board room meetings.

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Moo

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I came across this interesting article.

Moo

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orfeo

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The problem, cliffdweller, is that I don't see people trying to understand the facts of the individual cases. I see, as Byron says, people trying to fit the facts to pre-existing agendas.

It still amazes me that Zimmerman was ever classified as 'white'. And it still puzzles me that people tried to portray Brown as an innocent victim with no responsibility for his own death.

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
The problem, cliffdweller, is that I don't see people trying to understand the facts of the individual cases. I see, as Byron says, people trying to fit the facts to pre-existing agendas.

That is undoubtedly true, and (as pretty much everyone here has said) obviously not helpful. But neither is your suggestion that we should forget about the individual cases and move on to figuring out the bigger solutions. Again, that's impossible w/o first looking at the individual cases to see what happened and why, and to determine if there are any common causes that can be addressed. It is precisely because we all know that truth that we instinctively start looking for patterns in the absence of an investigation. As we've all acknowledged, that's problematic because the more we do that the more we're prone to confirmation bias. But the solution is not to slap people down for talking about individual cases, the solution is to bring the investigation into the light of day so the facts can be known and the conversation about systemic problems based on reality not speculation.


quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
And it still puzzles me that people tried to portray Brown as an innocent victim with no responsibility for his own death.

Which "people"? No one here has suggested Brown is "innocent." However, many/most have suggested that robbery and even assault of a police officer are not capital offenses-- which does make him a victim. For the same reason, he is not responsible for his own death. Had he been apprehended and convicted of robbery and/or assault, he would be responsible for his later incarceration and loss of freedom. But having not committed a capital crime, he is not responsible for his own death. Whether or not anyone else is responsible is, of course, the question at hand.

[ 28. November 2014, 01:01: Message edited by: cliffdweller ]

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Golden Key
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Moo--

quote:
Originally posted by Moo:
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
--I have trouble accepting that Brown severely beat up Wilson's face. The pics I've seen look more like sunburn, or the aftermath of being around lots of steam. And there seems to be a shape to it, rather than impact spots.

Is there any explanation of how Wilson developed sunburn on certain areas of his face, while the rest of it was not sunburned? Is there any evidence that Wilson had been exposed to steam on certain areas of his face, and not the rest of it?

Bearing in mind that I did go on to say that Wilson may well have been beaten, but it just didn't seem that way to me:

I've often seen uneven sunburns, due to goggles, a hat, falling asleep, etc.

Here are the official pics of Wilson's facial injuries, via HuffPost. "Struck with a fist" isn't the first thing that comes to my mind. The first pic does look like there *might* be the beginnings of a bruise on the upper right (his right) side of his face--except I think that's the lighting, because the next photo, more close-up, doesn't look that way to me.

Now, compare it with the pics from his mom's Tweet (via HuffPost). Ignore that bloody (literally) pic at the top of the page--it's unrelated, but went viral as a pic of Wilson.

Ok, the Tweet pics are a bit blurry; but IMHO his skin looks substantially the same as in the official pics--and there's evidently some sunburn, because you can see white skin that was probably covered by a hat. The time stamp is Feb. 11, with no year shown.

I don't know what happened. However, the pics don't look quite right to me, for what they're supposed to show.

YMMV.

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Barnabas62
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I'm reading Byron, orfeo as saying that each individual case should be treated on its merits in determining a verdict BUT there may well be issues of wider policy or societal interest which the cases illuminate.

One of these, which Moo's link illustrates, is the inflammatory and destructive effects of "instant" media distortions and wild inaccuracies.

Despite the grand jury findings. I wonder what impact they will have on Officer Wilson's future? He can hardly return to work, or to his home, at least not for some considerable time.

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orfeo

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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
The problem, cliffdweller, is that I don't see people trying to understand the facts of the individual cases. I see, as Byron says, people trying to fit the facts to pre-existing agendas.

That is undoubtedly true, and (as pretty much everyone here has said) obviously not helpful. But neither is your suggestion that we should forget about the individual cases and move on to figuring out the bigger solutions. Again, that's impossible w/o first looking at the individual cases to see what happened and why, and to determine if there are any common causes that can be addressed. It is precisely because we all know that truth that we instinctively start looking for patterns in the absence of an investigation. As we've all acknowledged, that's problematic because the more we do that the more we're prone to confirmation bias. But the solution is not to slap people down for talking about individual cases, the solution is to bring the investigation into the light of day so the facts can be known and the conversation about systemic problems based on reality not speculation.


quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
And it still puzzles me that people tried to portray Brown as an innocent victim with no responsibility for his own death.

Which "people"? No one here has suggested Brown is "innocent." However, many/most have suggested that robbery and even assault of a police officer are not capital offenses-- which does make him a victim. For the same reason, he is not responsible for his own death. Had he been apprehended and convicted of robbery and/or assault, he would be responsible for his later incarceration and loss of freedom. But having not committed a capital crime, he is not responsible for his own death. Whether or not anyone else is responsible is, of course, the question at hand.

Yes okay, fair enough on the first part. I guess it's the confirmation bias aspect that frustrates me.

As for who is treating Brown as innocent, I was thinking about other material I have seen online through things like Facebook and tumblr, rather than the discussion here.

Saying he did not commit a capital crime, and is therefore not responsible for his own death, is wrong in my view. Because a capital crime is only relevant to an execution, and it is the initial drive to portray this as an execution that is one of the problems. There is good evidence that he assaulted a police officer, tried to get an officer's gun, and charged at an officer. No-one seems to be asking: what did he THINK was going to happen while he was doing these stupid things?

It's perfectly possible to construct "but-for" scenarios to say that Wilson caused the death, but it is equally possible to construct "but-for" scenarios to say that Brown caused it as well (the law doesn't operate on such simple causation tests). It is far from the case that Brown was just a typical young black man minding his own business who was wrongly set upon. I accept that there ARE cases like that, but this is not even close to being one.

It's the failure to recognise Brown's significant contribution to his own death that is exactly the kind of confirmation bias that I have a problem with.

To lump Brown, Trayvon Martin and that 12-year-old kid in together as if they are all examples of the same thing just strikes me as fundamentally foolish. At one end we have a child who is a victim of other people's assumptions, in the middle we have Martin, a young guy who seems to have made an unfortunate choice about how to confront a perceived threat that was unnecessary, and then we have Brown using his size to commit crimes and intimidate people. These 3 people have skin colour in common, and they've all died, but that doesn't mean that they are all alike. In fact it's the very essence of racism to treat all of these deaths the same just because the skin colour of the killer was lighter than the skin colour of the deceased.

[ 28. November 2014, 02:01: Message edited by: orfeo ]

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
As for who is treating Brown as innocent, I was thinking about other material I have seen online through things like Facebook and tumblr, rather than the discussion here.

Saying he did not commit a capital crime, and is therefore not responsible for his own death, is wrong in my view. Because a capital crime is only relevant to an execution, and it is the initial drive to portray this as an execution that is one of the problems. There is good evidence that he assaulted a police officer, tried to get an officer's gun, and charged at an officer. No-one seems to be asking: what did he THINK was going to happen while he was doing these stupid things?

It's perfectly possible to construct "but-for" scenarios to say that Wilson caused the death, but it is equally possible to construct "but-for" scenarios to say that Brown caused it as well (the law doesn't operate on such simple causation tests). It is far from the case that Brown was just a typical young black man minding his own business who was wrongly set upon. I accept that there ARE cases like that, but this is not even close to being one.

It's the failure to recognise Brown's significant contribution to his own death that is exactly the kind of confirmation bias that I have a problem with.

The problem I have here is the false polarity. There is a far cry from Brown not being a robber or even possibly a thug (i.e. "typical young black man minding his own business") and him causing his own death. Part of the problem with your polarity is the assumption that someone has to be at fault. There is a range of possibilities between Wilson being 100% responsible and Brown being 100% responsible, including all manner of tragic unfortunate accident and/or poorly trained personnel and/or stupid mistakes or some tragic combination thereof. All manner of things are possible-- which, again, is precisely why we need a thorough and transparent investigation of this and other individual case before rushing to systemic solutions.


quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
There is good evidence that he assaulted a police officer, tried to get an officer's gun, and charged at an officer. No-one seems to be asking: what did he THINK was going to happen while he was doing these stupid things?

...It's the failure to recognise Brown's significant contribution to his own death that is exactly the kind of confirmation bias that I have a problem with.

Whether or not those things are in "good evidence" is still debatable, based on the discussion here-- which, again, is precisely why greater public transparency is needed. The fact that you rush past how debatable those are to ask "what did he THINK was going to happen" clearly demonstrates your own confirmation bias.

And again, we all are prone to confirmation bias-- particularly in the absence of any real data. It is regrettable and can have awful consequences, but it is a normal and forceable response when the facts are kept from the public. As someone once said, "what did he THINK was going to happen"?

Of course, as was mentioned upthread, the real problem in Ferguson may be the response to the shooting and the subsequent protests. Having a son-in-law who was "detained" (for 6 hours) at one of the original (lawful, peaceful) protests an hour before curfew, I'm a bit closer to that situation.

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orfeo

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Cliffdweller, where do you think I talked about 100% responsibility? I said the exact opposite.

As for whether the facts are debatable, I'm sorry, but I'm not even going to attempt to dignify suggestions like Wilson was suffering from sunburn. I find that claim absurd.

[ 28. November 2014, 02:22: Message edited by: orfeo ]

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
Seriously? He may not have intended to threaten them. But if you've ever looked down (or rather UP) the business end of an automatic (or semi-automatic) weapon, as I have, you can definitely feel threatened.

But there is a difference between "I feel threatened by you" and "you are threatening me".

For example, and because we're having a racism discussion, there are a large number of white people who feel threatened when they encounter a large black man walking down the street at night. They feel threatened because their upbringing, personal history and prejudices lead them to believe that they are in danger of being attacked by him.

The black man in my story isn't threatening them - he isn't threatening anyone. He's going about his perfectly lawful business and is on his way home.

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Cliffdweller, where do you think I talked about 100% responsibility? I said the exact opposite.

As for whether the facts are debatable, I'm sorry, but I'm not even going to attempt to dignify suggestions like Wilson was suffering from sunburn. I find that claim absurd.

Indirectly here:


quote:
There is good evidence that he assaulted a police officer, tried to get an officer's gun, and charged at an officer. No-one seems to be asking: what did he THINK was going to happen while he was doing these stupid things?

It's perfectly possible to construct "but-for" scenarios to say that Wilson caused the death, but it is equally possible to construct "but-for" scenarios to say that Brown caused it as well (the law doesn't operate on such simple causation tests). It is far from the case that Brown was just a typical young black man minding his own business who was wrongly set upon. I accept that there ARE cases like that, but this is not even close to being one.

It's the failure to recognise Brown's significant contribution to his own death that is exactly the kind of confirmation bias that I have a problem with.



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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:

To lump Brown, Trayvon Martin and that 12-year-old kid in together as if they are all examples of the same thing just strikes me as fundamentally foolish. At one end we have a child who is a victim of other people's assumptions, in the middle we have Martin, a young guy who seems to have made an unfortunate choice about how to confront a perceived threat that was unnecessary, and then we have Brown using his size to commit crimes and intimidate people. These 3 people have skin colour in common, and they've all died, but that doesn't mean that they are all alike. In fact it's the very essence of racism to treat all of these deaths the same just because the skin colour of the killer was lighter than the skin colour of the deceased.

I note that in both Martin and Brown's case you accept the shooter's version of events as "true", even tho in both cases that chain of events is in dispute. Again, evidence of your own confirmation bias. We all do it.

But yes, to your point, these are very different situations. There are some relevant similarities and some relevant differences. As Soong-Chan Rah argues in The Next Evangelicalism: Freeing the Church from Western Cultural Captivity systemic corporate racism thrives precisely because of this individualization-- because those in power insist on treating each instance of potential racism as an individual sin w/o looking at the broader patterns in our society and culture that propagate racial inequality.

Both approaches are needed. We need to investigate each individual case on it's own particular merits-- freely, openly, publicly-- especially when it comes to any criminal or professional investigation. But those individual facts need to be part of the whole as well. We need to come back and examine the individual similarities in order to discern any ongoing systemic factors that may or may not be at play in some or all of the cases.

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orfeo

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# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Cliffdweller, where do you think I talked about 100% responsibility? I said the exact opposite.

As for whether the facts are debatable, I'm sorry, but I'm not even going to attempt to dignify suggestions like Wilson was suffering from sunburn. I find that claim absurd.

Indirectly here:


quote:
There is good evidence that he assaulted a police officer, tried to get an officer's gun, and charged at an officer. No-one seems to be asking: what did he THINK was going to happen while he was doing these stupid things?

It's perfectly possible to construct "but-for" scenarios to say that Wilson caused the death, but it is equally possible to construct "but-for" scenarios to say that Brown caused it as well (the law doesn't operate on such simple causation tests). It is far from the case that Brown was just a typical young black man minding his own business who was wrongly set upon. I accept that there ARE cases like that, but this is not even close to being one.

It's the failure to recognise Brown's significant contribution to his own death that is exactly the kind of confirmation bias that I have a problem with.


If you think that "significant contribution" and explicitly saying it is possible to construct but-for tests for both men is indirectly a statement of 100% responsibility, then you are spectacularly wrong. You have quoted the EXACT passage I was going to point you to show that I had not said what you seem to think I said.

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orfeo

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# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
I note that in both Martin and Brown's case you accept the shooter's version of events as "true", even tho in both cases that chain of events is in dispute. Again, evidence of your own confirmation bias.

Actually, it's evidence of the fact that I pay attention to physical evidence like injuries and corroboration from independent witnesses, but have it your way.

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Golden Key
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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
As for whether the facts are debatable, I'm sorry, but I'm not even going to attempt to dignify suggestions like Wilson was suffering from sunburn. I find that claim absurd.

FYI: I simply said that's the way it looks to me. I know that bruises sometimes take days to show up, but I haven't seen any pics of Wilson with actual facial bruises. A couple of pics of other guys went viral, labeled as Wilson, but weren't him.

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
As for whether the facts are debatable, I'm sorry, but I'm not even going to attempt to dignify suggestions like Wilson was suffering from sunburn. I find that claim absurd.

FYI: I simply said that's the way it looks to me. I know that bruises sometimes take days to show up, but I haven't seen any pics of Wilson with actual facial bruises. A couple of pics of other guys went viral, labeled as Wilson, but weren't him.
fwiw, the red marks on this face do look like bruises to me-- but pretty minor ones, more like what you'd see from a hard slap. It suggests to me an altercation, possibly enough to enrage Wilson w/o endangering him. But really not enough to go on one way or 'nother.

[ 28. November 2014, 02:47: Message edited by: cliffdweller ]

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Barnabas62
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cliffdweller

There is a collection of photos in the evidence released. Presumably that's what you're working with? They are in the photograph section here.

Whether bruises would show would depend on the timing of the photos. IME it takes time for bruises to come out.

FWIW, I think the close ups with the measuring rulers in place show that he's been hit, rather than slapped. This wasn't a stand up fight; the exchanges took place while the officer was sitting in the car.

Dorian Johnson's account of the incident doesn't confirm any hitting by Michael Brown. But his evidence that Brown's hands and arms were not in the car at any stage is contradicted by the forensic evidence.

Wilson was hit and scratched in ways which give some support to his testimony. I suppose you might argue that the lumps and scratches were applied afterwards and the bullet holes and tissue evidence in the forensic findings were faked after the event.

I've read these parts of the evidence as providing corroboration of Wilson's testimony and casting,at the least, reasonable doubt over Dorian Johnson's. Johnson's testimony about the car scene is worth reading in this context. You can find it in Vol 4. His testimony starts at p 17 and the car stuff is a fair way forward from that.

[ 28. November 2014, 10:14: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Eigon
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If Wilson had been taken to the hospital and looked at straight after the incident, I'd accept the picture showed that Brown hit him. But he wasn't taken in until the next day, according to the police officers quoted in the Huff Post - so anyone could have hit him in the meantime while they were concocting the story he was going to tell.
Maybe Wilson is telling the truth, but there's that big gap between the incident and the hospital to account for.

And actually, in the light of the incompetence shown by the police department in this case, I'm wondering about their general clear up rate for crimes in Ferguson of any sort. I'm betting it's pretty low, and I also bet that residents of Ferguson under-report crime because they don't thing the police will do anything about it.
I wonder if anyone knows?

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orfeo

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quote:
Originally posted by Eigon:
If Wilson had been taken to the hospital and looked at straight after the incident, I'd accept the picture showed that Brown hit him. But he wasn't taken in until the next day, according to the police officers quoted in the Huff Post - so anyone could have hit him in the meantime while they were concocting the story he was going to tell.

Wow. I just love the conspiracy theories developing here.

Never mind that independent witnesses confirm there was an altercation at the car. Never mind that there is physical proof of Wilson's gun going off in the car. We have just GOT to find a way to maintain that Brown did nothing wrong and that damn white policeman just shot him for no reason.

THIS is what confirmation bias looks like. I've been accused of confirmation bias myself, apparently ignoring the fact that (1) in the Trayvon Martin case I changed my position, (2) in the Cleveland case I'm saying I'm very much inclined to the view that the police officer is in the wrong.

I'm basing my views on the actual evidence available, and the simplest explanation of most evidence is that it's the evidence. Not some conspiracy out of the plot of your favourite thriller.

[ 28. November 2014, 10:27: Message edited by: orfeo ]

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L'organist
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Re the photographs of Officer Wilson:

If a rugby player came off the pitch on a Saturday looking that good he'd either be thrilled and/or in for a bollocking for not trying.

just sayin' [Biased]

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orfeo

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I have officially had enough of this appalling conversation. It's like Lindy Chamberlain all over again. "You don't look beat up enough" = "You don't look upset enough". Bye.

[ 28. November 2014, 10:28: Message edited by: orfeo ]

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Moo

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quote:
Originally posted by Eigon:
If Wilson had been taken to the hospital and looked at straight after the incident, I'd accept the picture showed that Brown hit him. But he wasn't taken in until the next day, according to the police officers quoted in the Huff Post - so anyone could have hit him in the meantime while they were concocting the story he was going to tell.

This is the first time I have heard the statement that Wilson did not go to the hospital until the next day. All the reports I have seen said that Wilson was taken to the hospital a few hours after the shooting.

Moo

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I can't be the only person whose taken a knock by accident or while playing some sport that has left me dazed, nauseous or winded, but has left no physical mark.

I also can't be the only person ever to have got into a shower, noticed a bruise, cut or scrape, and thought "How the Hell did I do that?"

Given the ordinariness of both experiences, by what measure do we judge that a face in a photo looks bruised enough to corroborate evidence of a fight?

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itsarumdo
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if you see this in the shower in the morning, you've probably just accidentally bumped into a door frame a few times on the way to bed...

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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
I have officially had enough of this appalling conversation. It's like Lindy Chamberlain all over again. "You don't look beat up enough" = "You don't look upset enough". Bye.

That's a pity. You're about the only person on this thread who makes sense.

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itsarumdo
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There I was minding my own business leaning against lamppost, cleaning my nails with a knife, and this guy ran into me 16 times

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Pooks
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quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
I can't be the only person whose taken a knock by accident or while playing some sport that has left me dazed, nauseous or winded, but has left no physical mark.
I also can't be the only person ever to have got into a shower, noticed a bruise, cut or scrape, and thought "How the Hell did I do that?"
Given the ordinariness of both experiences, by what measure do we judge that a face in a photo looks bruised enough to corroborate evidence of a fight?

You are not the only person who has experienced what you have described, but that's not the real issue here. The real issue is what justice should look like in peoples' minds. If the evidence doesn't help them get there, then the evidence must be discredited. This is a technique used in court by lawyers, so it's not surprising that it has surfaced here time and time again as well. It's not always a right or wise thing to do, but it's not surprising.

I think as Orfeo stated up thread somewhere, perhaps a discussion on how and what processes are going on to improve the justice system in the States, so that it serves all people equally well, would be a better topic for moving on in this discussion. I for one would be interested to know what processes are involved when there is a need to improve either the law or policing method in the States. I know that in England at least that there are constant reforms going on, sometimes it's financially driven, sometimes it's about efficiency, but there are also efforts to look at how the police can serve the communities better and what they can do to to avoid antagonising local communities. If the law needs to change, I know there often will be some open debates in the upper and lower Houses of Parliament shown on TV, which we can follow, so we know what the sticking points are with the proposed change that was being considered. Are there similiar drives and methods for improving how law and policing work in the States that's open and accountable to the people?

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It's like Lindy Chamberlain all over again.

It is a bit! I don't mind, though. One of the good things about this place is its range.

Confirmation bias at work? Well, possibly; but seeing a possibility is not the same as saying it definitely happened that way.

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Eigon:
If Wilson had been taken to the hospital and looked at straight after the incident, I'd accept the picture showed that Brown hit him. But he wasn't taken in until the next day, according to the police officers quoted in the Huff Post - so anyone could have hit him in the meantime while they were concocting the story he was going to tell.

There is evidence of the timing of the photographs to be found in Volume 3, Eigon. The witness states that the photographs were taken on the same day. The photographs were date stamped and signed. Each photograph was discussed in some detail. The key testimony is from p 14 forward.

That's what the grand jury had to go on. Do you have any reason to believe that the official testimony is less reliable than a date printed in a Huff Post account some time after the event?

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Chesterbelloc

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
seeing a possibility is not the same as saying it definitely happened that way.

True. Unless, that is, you refuse to consider any other possibility for which there is reasonable evidence as respectably credible. And I think there might be a bit of that going on.

[ 28. November 2014, 17:45: Message edited by: Chesterbelloc ]

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It's like Lindy Chamberlain all over again.

It is a bit! I don't mind, though. One of the good things about this place is its range.

Confirmation bias at work? Well, possibly; but seeing a possibility is not the same as saying it definitely happened that way.

I don't think that's a fair comparison. These pictures have been submitted as evidence of a desperate struggle; it's not a stray impression that people shouldn't be drawing conclusions from. Perhaps few people have experience dealing with the emotions of those who have lost children under such traumatic circumstances; far more have a reasonable idea of what the result of a fight tends to looks like.

Unless the prosecution also had some authoritative source for comparison to appeal to regarding what marks such a struggle could be expected to leave, a jury would be left to rely on its own judgment. I don't see why you (or more clearly Orfeo) think calling out "confirmation bias" should be particularly persuasive in this case.

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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
Indeed. Enough incompetence in gathering evidence that one might wonder if it all that group incompetence could really be all that accidental...

This. Remember, the police here are investigating a situation involving one of their own.

On the other side of the question, however, when Le Roc compares European policing to US policing. he seems to forget that, in vast swathes of the US, many citizens carry firearms on their persons. When a suspect turns around and heads toward a cop who is in pursuit, that cop had better be prepared to be shot at. Of course our cops are a bit trigger-happy; they are often in very real danger of being shot at themselves.

It's my understanding, possibly faulty, that this possibility is considerably rarer in Europe than in the US.

Lastly, re: Doublethink's concern about coverup: the complete evidence presented to the grand jury has been released and is available to anyone who cares to read it.

To some, this may look like transparency.

To others, including me, this could be a version of coverup. The average American adult, I recently read somewhere, spends about 4 and 1/2 minutes a day reading anything. If you seriously want to cover something up, release it in print, in dense and copious quantities. It will remain safely ignored by the vast majority of the populace.

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Barnabas62
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Dave W.

I think you cross posted with my response to Eigon re photograph dating and timing. I've looked at all the evidence online. One of the less easy aspects of Hosting is to look at links in some detail.

I'm not accusing Eigon of confirmation bias. It's possible that he hadn't looked at Volume 3. I hadn't seen the Huff Post article.

Bias is normal, Dave W. So confirmation bias is always a possibility.

I don't have any axe to grind here. I'm reading this stuff for information, but not necessarily taking any of it on face value.

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Porridge:
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
Indeed. Enough incompetence in gathering evidence that one might wonder if it all that group incompetence could really be all that accidental...

re: Doublethink's concern about coverup: the complete evidence presented to the grand jury has been released and is available to anyone who cares to read it.

To some, this may look like transparency.

To others, including me, this could be a version of coverup. The average American adult, I recently read somewhere, spends about 4 and 1/2 minutes a day reading anything. If you seriously want to cover something up, release it in print, in dense and copious quantities. It will remain safely ignored by the vast majority of the populace.

Clearly I'm not like your average American.

I'd assess the likelyhood of the US media spending little time on the published detail as pretty close to zero, particularly given their initial and continuing published opinions. Nobody likes losing face, particularly over issues of credibility. The Who speak for all of us when they sing "won't get fooled again".

Me? I'm just telling it as I see it.

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Porridge:

The average American adult, I recently read somewhere, spends about 4 and 1/2 minutes a day reading anything. If you seriously want to cover something up, release it in print, in dense and copious quantities. It will remain safely ignored by the vast majority of the populace.

The average American adult will completely ignore whatever they are told if it disagrees with their prejudices, believing it a lie by the other camp. This isn't particularly a slur against Americans - its popular behaviour amongst adults of all nationalities.

In this case, there are two narratives. One has a cop doing his job encountering a violent thuggish petty criminal, and shooting him in self defense, and the other has a racist white cop murdering an unarmed black teenager.

I'd bet you would find almost 100% correlation between people's opinions of the killing of Michael Brown by Darren Wilson, and their opinion of the killing of Trayvon Martin by George Zimmerman, and in neither case would you find their opinions swayed by anything so basic as facts - after all, there are so many conflicting "facts" to choose from.

If someone like Al Sharpton came out alongside the dead boy's family and made a statement along the lines of "although we are sick to out hearts over the death of another black teenager, we agree that the evidence shows that his killing was lawful" then some people's opinions might change.

I'm not sure who would have a similar stature in the other camp - perhaps a confession of wrongdoing by the shooter himself?

But without either of those things happening, I could make a list now of the people who will support the cop and the people who will support the victim in the next case of some black teen shot by a cop to attract national attention.

[ 28. November 2014, 18:33: Message edited by: Leorning Cniht ]

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cliffdweller
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Wow. One heck of a lot of self-congratulation going on here.

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Barnabas62
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You may have mistaken my irony, cliffdweller. When on duty, I spend between one and two hours a day reading posts and links here because that's a part of my job as a Host.

(Mine was a throwaway remark caused by thinking about the "joys" of Hosting. Not so much self-congratulatory as a bleat. Unlike orfeo here in Purg, while I can bow out of the discussions at any time, I can't bow out of the reading chore.)

Back on specifics. Have you had time to look at the photos I linked, and the evidence confirming the date they were taken?

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
You may have mistaken my irony, cliffdweller. When on duty, I spend between one and two hours a day reading posts and links here because that's a part of my job as a Host.

My comment was not directed toward you in particular.


quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:

Back on specifics. Have you had time to look at the photos I linked, and the evidence confirming the date they were taken?

I hadn't bothered looking at them, since I've not drawn any conclusions from the photos one way or the other, so the date they were taken is not of much significance to me. I had assumed your link was directed toward one of the other posters who was drawing conclusions based on the photographic evidence.

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Dave W.

I think you cross posted with my response to Eigon re photograph dating and timing. I've looked at all the evidence online. One of the less easy aspects of Hosting is to look at links in some detail.

I'm not accusing Eigon of confirmation bias. It's possible that he hadn't looked at Volume 3. I hadn't seen the Huff Post article.

Eigon's suggestion of fakery is irrelevant to my comment. Orfeo was complaining that "You don't look beat up enough" = "You don't look upset enough", and you were (at least partially) agreeing and suspecting confirmation bias. (I think Eigon's scenario is unlikely precisely because I think that the degree of bruising isn't persuasive evidence of a vicious struggle. If he had really tried to get someone to hit him to back up his story, he could have come up with more convincing-looking injuries.)
quote:
Bias is normal, Dave W. So confirmation bias is always a possibility.
But if it's normal and always possible, then invoking it seems pointless unless you've got either some way to avoid it or some evidence that you think is less susceptible to it. Otherwise it just devolves into an all-purpose dismissal.
quote:
I don't have any axe to grind here. I'm reading this stuff for information, but not necessarily taking any of it on face value.

But isn't that exactly what someone with an ax to grind would be expected to say? To be sure, I don't actually think you do - but a self-declaration of lack of bias isn't terribly convincing, particularly after you've just called it out in others both specifically and generally.

Suppose I look at the pictures in the link and say to myself "How can anyone look at those and think that they support the story of a man who says he was beaten within an inch of his life?" Would I be justified in simply chalking it up to your confirmation bias?

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Barnabas62
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Thanks for the clarifications, cliffdweller.

The only reason I linked to all the photos is that I wasn't sure from your previous comment that you'd seen the whole collection which was put in evidence.

And of course it may help others, for whom the photos are more of an issue than for you, to confirm that there was evidence before the grand jury that they were taken on the day of the shooting, actually within just a few hours of the altercation in the car.

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Barnabas62
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Dave W.

You're reading an awful lot into my "yes possibly" and a bit of throwaway sympathy for the frustrated orfeo.

I'm quite happy for folks to look at my contribution to this thread in detail and draw whatever conclusions they like about my degree of bias, and I think I'm free to do the same, as long as I don't get Hellish about it.

I think confirmation bias would be illustrated not by a subjective disagreement over damage shown in photos el al, but an assertion of evidence fabrication or tampering by the police on the general grounds that it has happened before, or that the media said different. That way one can rule out anything which doesn't fit the story one prefers.

And confirmation bias the other way would be illustrated by a "face value" uncritical acceptance of witness statements or forensic evidence.

What makes the difference is seeing both dangers, looking at corroboration and internal consistency, and using those as your critical touchstones. I've tried to do that. Others are free to do the same and draw different conclusions. The ones I've drawn persuade me that the grand jury was in all probability justified in its findings. I didn't know I'd get there until I looked.

The twin "Scylla and Charybdis" rocks to avoid here are naivity and cynicism. Both have the effect of closing the mind.

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Dave W.
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Dave W.
[snip]

I think confirmation bias would be illustrated not by a subjective disagreement over damage shown in photos el al, [snip]

Well, that disagreement was precisely what Orfeo was complaining about in his last comment - that people were saying Wilson didn't "look beat up enough." I was objecting to your apparent support for this particular complaint of his, not your deprecation of Eigon's conspiracy theories; if you've changed your position (or perhaps more precisely, narrowed the scope of your suspicion of confirmation bias) I think maybe we now agree that it isn't unreasonable to see those photos as not supporting the claims of a mortal struggle.

But I'm still curious - do you in fact think that those photos do provide support for the claims of not just a struggle, but a struggle in which Wilson feared for his life? (This isn't meant to be a gotcha; I myself don't think they do, but I don't think they're necessarily conclusive in either direction.)

Posts: 2059 | From: the hub of the solar system | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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Dave W.

Did you read this Washington Post link posted earlier by Byron?

The photographs provide significant evidence of who was the first aggressor.

They corroborate to some degree Officer Wilson's testimony and they also contradict, to a greater degree, Dorian Johnson's testimony that Michael Brown was not the first aggressor in the first altercation at the car, indeed did not act aggressively at all. The bullet holes and ballistic information from the car also provide some further confirmation for Officer Wilson's testimony, and some further contradiction of Dorian Johnson's. That damages Dorian Johnson's credibility, which is significant in later consideration of the second fatal altercation.

The major significance is not the degree of injury, but the evidence of first aggression and what it implies about the belligerence of the aggressor. The video from the shop hardly supports the "gentle giant" claims which came out first.

Again, the forensic evidence surrounding the fatal encounter supports Wilson's account to a significantly greater extent than Johnson's when it comes to the fatal second confrontation. You have to read both to see that. The link provides the significant extracts from Wilson's testimony and he explains his fears for his safety as Brown advances on him.

So this summary in the linked article seems fair to me.

quote:
In some states, a defendant bears the burden of establishing self-defense. But according to State v. Anthony, once a defendant injects self-defense into a case, the prosecution bears the burden of disproving the defense beyond a reasonable doubt, as made clear in this language from Anthony:

The state has the burden of proving beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant did not act in lawful self-defense. Unless you find beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant did not act in lawful self-defense, you must find the defendant not guilty.

Applied to this case, Missouri law would have obligated the prosecution to eliminate any reasonable doubt about Wilson’s testimony that he feared for his life. That is an extremely difficult burden to carry.

You and I would probably agree that the state self-defence law is not what we would prefer to be in place. But ISTM that, as it stands, it would have a major impact on any finding in favour of an indictment.

The photos are not conclusive in themselves, of course, nor are the forensics, nor is Wilson's testimony. But they add up, together with the state law, to provide considerable justification for the grand jury finding.

I'm now pretty clear that the prosecutor was well aware of all of that in advance of the grand jury hearing. But a unilateral kicking of the case by his office without any hearing would have been socially and politically inflammatory. So he went the unusual way that he did.

Some have argued here that he abused the grand jury process in doing that. Well, maybe that can be pursued as a matter of law itself. But I've had a look at the state law from another earlier link and ISTM that the prosecutor did not offend against state law by handling the hearing this way.

Anyway, that's the way I join the dots. YMMV.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Gee D
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# 13815

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quote:
Originally posted by Porridge:
Lastly, re: Doublethink's concern about coverup: the complete evidence presented to the grand jury has been released and is available to anyone who cares to read it.

To some, this may look like transparency.

To others, including me, this could be a version of coverup. The average American adult, I recently read somewhere, spends about 4 and 1/2 minutes a day reading anything. If you seriously want to cover something up, release it in print, in dense and copious quantities. It will remain safely ignored by the vast majority of the populace.

I find this very hard to follow. You put all the evidence out in the public domain and because few people will read it all, there's been a cover-up??????

Some other random thoughts from someone who has only skimmed these posts. The first is that I'm surprised that so many people are quick to conclude that the members of the grand jury have been false to the oaths they took on empanelment. Related to this is an implicit assumption that the black jurors were dominated by their white fellows. Then again, perhaps they were not really black.

Many have attacked the prosecutor for taking a role of setting out the case against Wilson in a fairly dispassionate manner. I know nothing of the relevant rules of ethics, but here that is the proper course for a prosecutor to adopt. Prosecuting counsel who go out gung ho are likely to find themselves being rapped severely over the knuckles by either the trial judge or judges of appeal. In fact, that was done earlier this year to a senior prosecuting counsel. The Court of Criminal Appeal ordered a new trial where trial counsel had invited the jury to speculate on the basis of some fairly sparse evidence, and made strong adverse comment about that and other behaviour at trial.

Finally, I cannot understand the arson and other violence carried out by those protesting. One photograph shown here was of a burnt-out shop, with a sign saying Beauty resting agains ruins. We were told that that had been a beauty salon. Why was it burnt? Was the proprietor a member of the KKK? And the same for other damaged property, the wrecked cars, the smashed windows.

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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican

Posts: 7028 | From: Warrawee NSW Australia | Registered: Jun 2008  |  IP: Logged
mousethief

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# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I'd assess the likelyhood of the US media spending little time on the published detail as pretty close to zero, particularly given their initial and continuing published opinions. Nobody likes losing face, particularly over issues of credibility. The Who speak for all of us when they sing "won't get fooled again".

Fox News has a great way to prevent losing face. They simply don't admit when they have been proven wrong. Problem solved.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged



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