Posted                       

quote:

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Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Although, surely, weighing heavily on Cameron's side, in relation to legitimacy, and in fact, phenomenological coherence, are bacon sarnies?

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Posted                       

quote:

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Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Some talk of a very late Labour swing, so YouGov has Cameron only 4 seats ahead. I do wonder if Cameron's reference to Labour illegitimacy might rile some people - that's not his decision.

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Posted                       

quote:

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Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
There is an interesting counterfactual going around - Labour get slightly more seats, but the Libdems do unexpectedly well, and Cameron is able to form a coalition. However, the Sun and the Times advise that it wouldn't be fair, if the Tories are the second largest party.

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Posted                      

quote:

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Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:

quote:

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Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
There is an interesting counterfactual going around - Labour get slightly more seats, but the Libdems do unexpectedly well, and Cameron is able to form a coalition. However, the Sun and the Times advise that it wouldn't be fair, if the Tories are the second largest party.

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It seems unlikely that Labour could win more seats than the Conservatives, and yet (Con + LD) would command a majority. That would require Labour to do much, much better than expected in Scotland.

If the Conservatives get somewhere in the high 280s or 290 seats, Cameron probably has a reasonable shot at a minority government. Labour only needs to score in the 260s to put Miliband in the same position - he can say "no deals" all he likes, but the SNP aren't going to vote in a Tory government.

I think all the uncertainty is in the 3- and 4-way English marginals: whether a vote split between Con and UKIP lets the Lab candidate win, or whether a Green/Lab split lets the LD squeak through.

My guess is that Cameron gets the most seats, but that there aren't enough votes to support him in government, so we end up with a minority Miliband government which relies on votes from the nationalists and some Lib Dems to survive. There's probably about equal odds of that ending up being reasonably stable, or ending up as a complete disaster.

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Posted                      

quote:

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Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
First things first. I need to watch the Good Wife first, to get my weekly fix of the divine Julianna M. Then the entertainment can begin - any chance of a Portillo moment? Clegg moment?

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Posted                       

quote:

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Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
First things first. I need to watch the Good Wife first, to get my weekly fix of the divine Julianna M. Then the entertainment can begin - any chance of a Portillo moment? Clegg moment?

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Posted                         

quote:

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Originally posted by North East Quine:
We stopped paying for our TV licence last year, and not being able to watch TV tonight will be the first time I've regretted that decision. I'll be flipping around various websites. I'm planning to get four hours sleep 10pm to 2am, then go online as the results start coming in.

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Posted                      

quote:

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Originally posted by Doc Tor:

quote:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
The narrative that it's only the top 1% who are doing well while everyone else is getting poorer and poorer just doesn't ring true.

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Except that government statistics inconveniently disagree with you.

Take-away headlines are:

• Since the start of the economic downturn, median household income for the overall population has fallen by 3.8%, after adjusting for inflation
• However, when looking separately at non-retired and retired households, the median income for non-retired households fell by 6.4% between 2007/08 and 2011/12
• The average amount paid in indirect taxes by the middle fifth of non-retired households also fell between 2007/08 and 2011/12, from £6,400 to £6,000, partly reflecting falling average expenditure. However, as a proportion of gross income, indirect taxes rose from 15.6% to 16.2% over this period, due to gross income falling at a faster rate

So, no. Even you, Marvin, though you're convinced otherwise.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
May I ask how old you are, Marvin?

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quote:

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Originally posted by Adeodatus:
I worked out my "hard working household" (i.e. me) was about £3500 p.a. worse off in real terms in 2014-15 than in 2009-10. This was largely due to public sector wage freeze and increased pension contributions. But I was lucky - I could still live on that. Many weren't so lucky, and tomorrow I'll be voting with them in mind.

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Posted                       

quote:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
My gross income has gone up by about £10k over the last five years, and with the increases to the personal allowance I'm keeping proportionally more of it in my accounts. In the same period my gas, electricity and food bills have virtually halved. I figure somebody in power must be doing something right.

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Posted                          

quote:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

quote:

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Originally posted by Doc Tor:

quote:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
The narrative that it's only the top 1% who are doing well while everyone else is getting poorer and poorer just doesn't ring true.

---

Except that government statistics inconveniently disagree with you.

Take-away headlines are:

• Since the start of the economic downturn, median household income for the overall population has fallen by 3.8%, after adjusting for inflation
• However, when looking separately at non-retired and retired households, the median income for non-retired households fell by 6.4% between 2007/08 and 2011/12
• The average amount paid in indirect taxes by the middle fifth of non-retired households also fell between 2007/08 and 2011/12, from £6,400 to £6,000, partly reflecting falling average expenditure. However, as a proportion of gross income, indirect taxes rose from 15.6% to 16.2% over this period, due to gross income falling at a faster rate

So, no. Even you, Marvin, though you're convinced otherwise.

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I bow to your superior knowledge of my personal finances.

quote:

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Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
May I ask how old you are, Marvin?

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36.

quote:

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Originally posted by Adeodatus:
I worked out my "hard working household" (i.e. me) was about £3500 p.a. worse off in real terms in 2014-15 than in 2009-10. This was largely due to public sector wage freeze and increased pension contributions. But I was lucky - I could still live on that. Many weren't so lucky, and tomorrow I'll be voting with them in mind.

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My gross income has gone up by about £10k over the last five years, and with the increases to the personal allowance I'm keeping proportionally more of it in my accounts. In the same period my gas, electricity and food bills have virtually halved. I figure somebody in power must be doing something right.

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One of the biggest outreach ministries at our church is the food bank. Before this government got in and trashed social security, we didn't need one. I'm not entirely convinced about that ...

It's moments like this I really miss Ken.

I haven't voted yet. It's a safe Tory seat, but I'll either go Red or Green. Sadly, I can't bring myself to vote Lib-Dem anymore. Like many others, I hope UKIP does really badly and Farage loses in Thanet so has to make good on his promise to resign as party leader. (Part of me hopes that Al Murry would actually get elected, but that is nighly unlikely ).

Tubbs

[ 07. May 2015, 13:41: Message edited by: Tubbs ]

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

Posted                       

quote:

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Originally posted by Eliab:
I've voted. In Twickenham, it's either to keep Vince Cable in the House of Commons, or replace him with a new Conservative MP. Voting LibDem in such circumstances is a no-brainer, IMHO. If we end up with a Conservative-led government I'd like it to be at least somewaht accountable to a coalition partner.

What I'm really hoping, though, is that the British people give the big F-off to UKIP. I'd like this to be the last General Election in which they are treated even remotely seriously. I fear that is a vain hope, but I'd welcome a government of pretty much any other combination of parties, if xenophobia could be taken off the political agenda for the foreseeable future.

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Posted                         

quote:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

quote:

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Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
May I ask how old you are, Marvin?

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36.

quote:

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Originally posted by Adeodatus:
I worked out my "hard working household" (i.e. me) was about £3500 p.a. worse off in real terms in 2014-15 than in 2009-10. This was largely due to public sector wage freeze and increased pension contributions. But I was lucky - I could still live on that. Many weren't so lucky, and tomorrow I'll be voting with them in mind.

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My gross income has gone up by about £10k over the last five years, and with the increases to the personal allowance I'm keeping proportionally more of it in my accounts. In the same period my gas, electricity and food bills have virtually halved. I figure somebody in power must be doing something right.

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Posted                       

quote:

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Originally posted by Caissa:
As a Canadian, can I ask what time the polls close? I am interested in following the poll numbers as they roll in.

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Posted                      

quote:

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Originally posted by Sioni Sais:

quote:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
My gross income has gone up by about £10k over the last five years, and with the increases to the personal allowance I'm keeping proportionally more of it in my accounts. In the same period my gas, electricity and food bills have virtually halved. I figure somebody in power must be doing something right.

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It's likelier that you have done something right, and well done for that. Shopping around for gas & electricity and a change of diet help. As for a salary increase of £10K that must be down to you, especially in a period of pay restraint.

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Posted                      

quote:

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Originally posted by Albertus:
Am I right in thinking you work in a University, Marvin?

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quote:

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If so, you almost certainly won't have had much of a pay rise in any single post, as opposed to raising your pay by moving between jobs- unless you're a Vice-Chancellor, of course, but I suspect you aren't one.

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quote:

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And of course there is the argument, supported by quite a lot of academics and others from lefty pinko organisations like the Bank of England and the IMF, that Osbastard's austerity actually delayed economic recovery.

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Posted                          

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eliab:

What I'm really hoping, though, is that the British people give the big F-off to UKIP. I'd like this to be the last General Election in which they are treated even remotely seriously. I fear that is a vain hope, but I'd welcome a government of pretty much any other combination of parties, if xenophobia could be taken off the political agenda for the foreseeable future.

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Posted                       

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ricardus:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eliab:

What I'm really hoping, though, is that the British people give the big F-off to UKIP. I'd like this to be the last General Election in which they are treated even remotely seriously. I fear that is a vain hope, but I'd welcome a government of pretty much any other combination of parties, if xenophobia could be taken off the political agenda for the foreseeable future.

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If Farage fails to take Thanet, and resigns as he said he would, I expect UKIP to fizzle out. Who else in UKIP has the charisma or public profile to replicate his success?

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Posted                      

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eliab:

What I'm really hoping, though, is that the British people give the big F-off to UKIP. I'd like this to be the last General Election in which they are treated even remotely seriously. I fear that is a vain hope, but I'd welcome a government of pretty much any other combination of parties, if xenophobia could be taken off the political agenda for the foreseeable future.

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Amen

--------------------
Garden. Room. Walk

Posted                      

quote:

---

Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Doc Tor:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
The narrative that it's only the top 1% who are doing well while everyone else is getting poorer and poorer just doesn't ring true.

---

Except that government statistics inconveniently disagree with you.

Take-away headlines are:

• Since the start of the economic downturn, median household income for the overall population has fallen by 3.8%, after adjusting for inflation
• However, when looking separately at non-retired and retired households, the median income for non-retired households fell by 6.4% between 2007/08 and 2011/12
• The average amount paid in indirect taxes by the middle fifth of non-retired households also fell between 2007/08 and 2011/12, from £6,400 to £6,000, partly reflecting falling average expenditure. However, as a proportion of gross income, indirect taxes rose from 15.6% to 16.2% over this period, due to gross income falling at a faster rate

So, no. Even you, Marvin, though you're convinced otherwise.

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I bow to your superior knowledge of my personal finances.

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Posted                      

quote:

---

Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Albertus:
Am I right in thinking you work in a University, Marvin?

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Yep.

quote:

---

If so, you almost certainly won't have had much of a pay rise in any single post, as opposed to raising your pay by moving between jobs- unless you're a Vice-Chancellor, of course, but I suspect you aren't one.

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There was one promotion, the rest was increments within my current role.

quote:

---

And of course there is the argument, supported by quite a lot of academics and others from lefty pinko organisations like the Bank of England and the IMF, that Osbastard's austerity actually delayed economic recovery.

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It's possible that might be right. But there's also an argument that playing it safe and accepting a slower recovery in return for not going completely off the side of the cliff (see Greece) is a good thing.

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Posted                       

quote:

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Originally posted by Gracious rebel:
For the benefit of those of you from outside the UK who are interested in trying to understand the British system, and this election in particular, here is a fun but informative little video (also good for Brits too I think)

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Hadn't seen that - loved it !

Posted                      

quote:

---

Originally posted by Doc Tor:
You're paying more indirect tax than you're saving on income tax, is for certain.

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quote:

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But I note with some irony that you don't, you can't contradict hard statistics with your anecdata, and any attempt to dress up the situation as "it's not as bad as everyone says" is either woefully ignorant or actively mendacious.

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Posted                       

quote:

---

Originally posted by Albertus:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
It's possible that might be right. But there's also an argument that playing it safe and accepting a slower recovery in return for not going completely off the side of the cliff (see Greece) is a good thing.

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Nobody, but nobody, who knows anything about the subject, thinks that the UK economy had much in common with the Greek economy at all. We had and have control over interest rates, and our debt was much more long-term. The Greek comparison was and is mischievous and purely a scare tactic.

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Indeed.

Not to mention that strictly speaking, never mind a slower recovery we haven't had any kind of recovery.

A recovery is above trend growth that brings growth rates back up to the trend making up for the ground lost in the recession. We have just crawled back to trend level. Just. And GDP per head remains below pre-crisis levels.

But of course it's the BEST recovery ever, Osborne keeps telling us so...

This Chart is particularly revealing (Can you spot when George took over?)

And this is one of my favourites: 2010 predictions of Osborne's Economic brilliance(tm) vs what actually happened: Ooops!


Long Term Economic Plan
UK Economic performance vs France

AFZ

--------------------
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

Posted                      

quote:

---

Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
When what everyone says is that unless you're in the 1% you're inevitably going to get poorer under the Tories, it only takes one example of someone who's not in the 1% getting richer to demonstrate that it's not as bad as they're making out.

National-level statistics can only take you so far. If 30% of people are richer and 70% are poorer then the stats will tell you that there's an overall downwards trend, but that doesn't mean the 30% are actually getting poorer.

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Posted                       

quote:

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Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The median income is going down.

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Posted                      

quote:

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Originally posted by Pottage:

quote:

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Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The median income is going down.

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Is that really so? It certainly was over the period of the statistics you linked to, 2007-2012, but more current figures indicate that median income has risen since then.

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