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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: UK Election 2015
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Did anyone else see the XKCD cartoon yesterday?
That's hilarious. I want that as T-shirt. ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Curiosity killed ...
Ship's Mug
# 11770
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Posted
We had town council, district council and constituency MP voting.
The town council has 6 seats, 7 candidates, 6 of whom were Tory. I voted for three candidates, the Labour candidate and two of the better Tory guys (comes of knowing most of them personally).
District council was a pretty crummy choice, again knowing most of the candidates from previous performance or personally. That one I voted politically and Green.
MP was interesting. Here is solidly true blue with the sitting MP polling 51% of the vote last time around. LibDem usually comes second. This time around the LibDem candidate is a very good local councillor at district and county level and the sitting MP is a crap constituency MP. We also got UKIP, Labour and Green candidates. I am hoping that the drift to UKIP in this area will let the LibDem guy through and oust the Tory MP. And if that happens, that will be Portillo moment.
So to my amusement I have voted Tory, Labour, Green and LibDem tonight. Mainly for candidates rather than on party political lines.
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Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat
Posts: 13794 | From: outiside the outer ring road | Registered: Aug 2006
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Garasu
Shipmate
# 17152
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Posted
"Hilarious" is pushing it.
Mildly amusing, I'll grant you.
Too much processing for a T-Shirt.
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"Could I believe in the doctrine without believing in the deity?". - Modesitt, L. E., Jr., 1943- Imager.
Posts: 889 | From: Surrey Heath (England) | Registered: Jun 2012
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
BBC exit poll: Con 316, Lab 239, LD 10, SNP 58, UKIP 2, Green 2, PC 4, Others 19.
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
Which means Con + Lib Dem is a viable coalition again, albeit with a majority of only 2.
If the exit poll is accurate, of course. With such a small majority it only takes one seat to go the other way for all bets to be off!
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
Hmm. This exit poll looks to be based on about 50 voters per constituency (22,000 total). How reliable is it likely to be?
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Albertus
Shipmate
# 13356
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
BBC exit poll: Con 316, Lab 239, LD 10, SNP 58, UKIP 2, Green 2, PC 4, Others 19.
If this is correct, I don't want to live in this country any more. I don't want to live in a country ruled by and for fucking stupid selfish bastards and their dupes.
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My beard is a testament to my masculinity and virility, and demonstrates that I am a real man. Trouble is, bits of quiche sometimes get caught in it.
Posts: 6498 | From: Y Sowth | Registered: Jan 2008
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Hmm. This exit poll looks to be based on about 50 voters per constituency (22,000 total). How reliable is it likely to be?
Last time it was pretty close.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
But this election is very different from the last one, with more parties in play (SNP and UKIP especially). So I am not convinced that the exit poll will be as accurate as last time.
Paddy Ashdown agrees with me! Er...
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
Dear God.... Not 58 seats for the SNP... PLEASE!!!!
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
If the exit poll is right the NHS is going to be destroyed by the time of the next election.
Opposition vote looks like it split.
[ 07. May 2015, 21:26: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
Depressed already by the BBC's exit poll - how could the tories actually make gains? I hope it's wildly wrong.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
Harriet Harman on the other hand is trying to argue that the exit polls would represent good news!
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I think I need a drink.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
I'm trying very hard to convince myself I don't need a drink
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I came to Jesus and I found in him my star, my sun.
And in that light of life I'll walk 'til travelling days are done
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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Jenn.
Shipmate
# 5239
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Posted
Watching channel 4s coverage is making this so much less depressing. Even though it is very depressing. Also, wine helps.
Posts: 2282 | From: England | Registered: Nov 2003
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
Oh my GHOD!!!
That exit poll could really, really hardly be worse.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Did anyone else see the XKCD cartoon yesterday?
Personally, I preferred the gag about cutting the US Secret Service some slack.
Because, let's face it, they are the only branch of US Law Enforcement who get in trouble if a black man gets shot.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Southern Comfort over in this neck of the woods. I booked tomorrow morning off work so I can stay up / sleep thru my hangover.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
The Yougov exit poll is very different. Sorry, this is a tablet and I lack the will to link.
but I don't think it's based on a sample of 22K.
And on reflection, it's actually quite feasable. I have heard that the Lib Dems in the South West have been shedding working class votes to UKIP. That means lots of Tory gains there.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
Channel 4 is definitely a better bet than BBC Scotland. Which is just a bit Scotland-centric...
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I came to Jesus and I found in him my star, my sun.
And in that light of life I'll walk 'til travelling days are done
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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ThunderBunk
Stone cold idiot
# 15579
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Posted
The exit polls have got to be wrong.
The exit polls have GOT to be wrong
THE EXIT POLLS.....
<recollects himself>
Apologies - are you detecting a note of desperation?
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Currently mostly furious, and occasionally foolish. Normal service may resume eventually. Or it may not. And remember children, "feiern ist wichtig".
Foolish, potentially deranged witterings
Posts: 2208 | From: Norwich | Registered: Apr 2010
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Channel 4 wins over BBC coverage by virtue of *not* having Michael Gove.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
You all trust exit polls over there?
I thought every body knew they were not always accurate.
[ 07. May 2015, 21:45: Message edited by: Og: Thread Killer ]
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
If the seat prediction is correct, the forthcoming result is likely be Tory led with coalition / supply arrangements with the Lib Dems, UKIP and the DUP.
...............................and a second independence referendum in short order.
AND a Brexit referendum.
Not to mention the reintroduction of workhouses.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
I was going to wait until 2300 to switch to Channel 4 - Gogglebox is a bit annoying, so I thought I'd let the majority of that get out of the way.
BBC were talking up Sunderland trying to have their count in by 22:40 - but it seems that they've failed to beat their last year's record of 22:43, as we're still listening to a UKIP talking-head.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by luvanddaisies:
Depressed already by the BBC's exit poll - how could the tories actually make gains? I hope it's wildly wrong.
Only just realised that the exit poll represents gains.
Well, it could happen because of your voting system. In the UK, it doesn't matter where votes that were held by the previous winning party leak, it just matters that they leak.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
You all trust exit polls over there?
I thought every knew they were not always accurate.
Unfortunately the last two have been dead on, following a change from the 2001 methodology.
Even in 2001, the median between the ITV and BBC polls was pretty much exactly the result.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Yogov have tories at 283 and labour on 263 - its on the BbC live website feed. Liberals on about 30.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
Oh, we know they're not necessarily accurate.
But they're the only thing we've got until the results start coming in, and frankly they're too depressing. (And as far as Scotland is concerned, all the polls leading up to the election have also predicted that the SNP will pretty take everything)
On a more cheerful note, I have given in and opened a bottle of red.
[ 07. May 2015, 21:52: Message edited by: kingsfold ]
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I came to Jesus and I found in him my star, my sun.
And in that light of life I'll walk 'til travelling days are done
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
You all trust exit polls over there?
It's not so much trust you're seeing here as fear that they may be right.
AFZ
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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
Hrm. Over 20% for UKIP in Sunderland South. Hrmmmm.
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Labour have held Sunderland South, no surprise there. Turnout 56% which is crap. UKIP gain is distressing.
[ 07. May 2015, 21:54: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
AFZ has it in one.
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I came to Jesus and I found in him my star, my sun.
And in that light of life I'll walk 'til travelling days are done
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
The first real result is in, and it's a 7% swing from Labour to UKIP. not enough to win then the seat of course, but if that's repeated in closer seats it could open the door for the Tories to get in...
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Mitchell unleashed .....
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
Or it could damage the Conservatives in the South. As Peter Snow used to say.... We Simply Don't Know!
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
Turnout in Sunderland South is the same as 2010, so I reckon the following has happened:
Lib Dem votes > Labour (lots)
Conservative votes > UKIP
BNP votes > UKIP
Labour votes > UKIP
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
So, what could "Getting onto Labour's pink bus" be a euphemism for?
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I came to Jesus and I found in him my star, my sun.
And in that light of life I'll walk 'til travelling days are done
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Mwahahaha
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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St Everild
Shipmate
# 3626
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
BBC exit poll: Con 316, Lab 239, LD 10, SNP 58, UKIP 2, Green 2, PC 4, Others 19.
If this is correct, I don't want to live in this country any more. I don't want to live in a country ruled by and for fucking stupid selfish bastards and their dupes.
I feel the same way.
Posts: 1782 | From: Bethnei | Registered: Dec 2002
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
It seems to me, from the little information that is available so far, is that a plausible scenario involves the Liberal Democrat vote collapsing but much of the practical benefit going to the Conservatives in the south and the SNP in the north, not Labour.
[ 07. May 2015, 22:08: Message edited by: orfeo ]
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Curiosity killed ...
Ship's Mug
# 11770
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Posted
Tweet from a friend reckons that putting Paddy Ashdown between Alistair Campbell and Michael Gove is against his Human Rights as cruel and unusual ..
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Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat
Posts: 13794 | From: outiside the outer ring road | Registered: Aug 2006
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Lots of politicians offering to eat items of clothing - at some point someone is going to make a meme ...
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It seems to me, from the little information that is available so far, is that a plausible scenario involves the Liberal Democrat vote collapsing but much of the practical benefit going to the Conservatives in the south and the SNP in the north, not Labour.
That's a very plausible analysis.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
It seems to me, from the little information that is available so far, is that a plausible scenario involves the Liberal Democrat vote collapsing but much of the practical benefit going to the Conservatives in the south
Correct. Especially in the south west and the rural south east, most seats are a square-off between the Tories and the Lib Dems, with Labour in a poor third. One of the reasons why the Tories didn't get a majority in 2010 (despite their increased vote) is because the Lib Dems' vote also increased.
quote:
and the SNP in the north, not Labour.
I think that's dwarfed by the switch from Labour to SNP, and also non-voters to SNP.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by St Everild:
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
BBC exit poll: Con 316, Lab 239, LD 10, SNP 58, UKIP 2, Green 2, PC 4, Others 19.
If this is correct, I don't want to live in this country any more. I don't want to live in a country ruled by and for fucking stupid selfish bastards and their dupes.
I feel the same way.
Likewise.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
This is from the BBC live feed.
quote:
Moreover, a final poll of polls compiled by the Press Association puts the Tories on 276 seats, Labour on 271, Lib Dems on 28, SNP 48, UKIP three and Greens one.
There'll be a LOT of nail biting going on tonight.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Labour hold for Sunderland Central. UKiP on 19% again and 5% swing to labour from Tory.
[ 07. May 2015, 22:18: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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