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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: UK Election 2015
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
That was one of the big ones for Labour, and the swing went against them. The exit poll is looking more and more accurate as time goes by.
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Hail Gallaxhar
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
So in Nuneaton it looked like the LibDem vote went... to UKIP??? Is that possible?
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
I doubt it was the same people. Could have been LD to Lab and Lab to UKIP, with the percentages just happening to cancel out.
[ 08. May 2015, 01:00: Message edited by: Marvin the Martian ]
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Hail Gallaxhar
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
It's starting to look like the main story from this election could be the rise of UKIP, even if they don't get many seats. They're well ahead in terms of vote share change right now.
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Hail Gallaxhar
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
So in Nuneaton it looked like the LibDem vote went... to UKIP??? Is that possible?
Not in big numbers. More likely they were split between Labour, the Greens, nothing, and probably a few UKIP. That would mean an increase in the Labour vote which I reckon was probably offset by Labour votes switching to Tory.
However, some while back, some pollster did a survey of where UKIP support had come from, and a surprising amount did actually come from the Lib Dems. Down in the south, a good deal of the less affluent have voted for them in the past, despite not being particularly pro-Europe or pro-environment. UKIP is a more natural fit for them. UKIP are also very able to take over the protest vote mantle. But I wouldn't expect this in Nuneaton.
Commentators saying that David Laws has lost in Yeovil. Not particularly sorry about that, tbh.
[ 08. May 2015, 01:04: Message edited by: Cod ]
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Yangtze:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Could the Greens end up with more votes than the Lib Dems? Currently only 500 between them...
Does rather seem as votes that might before have gone to the Lib Dems have gone to the Greens. Splitting the left vote. Maybe they should merge into new Liberal Green party.
This actually shows perfectly the difference between FPTP and a preferential system. You would imagine that such people would, in a preferential system, vote 1 Green but then vote 2 Lib Dem, or vice versa. And so those votes would come back together in a left bloc in a preferential system, behind whichever of the 2 parties was more popular in an electorate. But in FPTP the divided vote means a loss for both.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
The first Lib Dem seat is in, and they've held it! Good for them.
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Hail Gallaxhar
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
Lib Dems hold Ceredigion.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
SNP have destroyed Kilmarnock!
26% swing!
[ 08. May 2015, 01:13: Message edited by: Marvin the Martian ]
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Hail Gallaxhar
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Marvin's right. Modern methods of exit polling are normally a pretty accurate forecaster of UK election results, even with an election as complex as this one. The Conservatives seem certain to top 300 seats and may even get close to an overall majority.
I am not sure how the UK can remain politically viable as a United Kingdom once the SNP landslide moves from forecast to fact. Those who sowed that wind historically (primarily Thatcher and Blair) have provoked the coming whirlwind. David Cameron may well be the last UK Prime Minister. That may prove to be the most significnt effect of this election.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
SNP have destroyed Kilmarnock!
26% swing!
I think the union just died.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
I really do not want to increase the wailing and gnashing of teeth here; I really don't.
But the BBC just said Nuneaton indicates the Tories might do better than the BBC exit polls.
Well I'd quite like to see the UK not break up. One welcome side-effect of the 2014 referendum was that the divisive Alex Salmond got sidelined. Nicola Sturgeon, by contrast, has been for constructive engagement all the way.
However, if the Tories get an overall majority purely on the basis of English and a handful of Welsh seats, Scots will doubtlessly say that the system is stacked against them.
Salmond is already back on the scene commenting that a government without Scottish representation would have "no legitimacy" there. Constitutionally, that's utter horseshit (particularly if Scotland returns only MPs from a party that no one else can vote for), but it shows how the politics may play out.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
SNP have destroyed Kilmarnock!
26% swing!
I think the union just died.
You could be right. Another referendum may well be on the cards in the next 5 years.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
One pundit was suggesting Cameron might offer a federal arrangement - which is not a terrible idea.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Salmond is already back on the scene commenting that a government without Scottish representation would have "no legitimacy" there. Constitutionally, that's utter horseshit (particularly if Scotland returns only MPs from a party that no one else can vote for), but it shows how the politics may play out.
He's never had a problem with the whole West Lothian Question thing, so I don't see how he can complain too much when the boot's on the other foot.
[removed duplicate post - the cider is starting to kick in!!!]
[ 08. May 2015, 01:21: Message edited by: Marvin the Martian ]
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
Douglas Alexander has gone!
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Hail Gallaxhar
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Salmond is already back on the scene commenting that a government without Scottish representation would have "no legitimacy" there. Constitutionally, that's utter horseshit (particularly if Scotland returns only MPs from a party that no one else can vote for), but it shows how the politics may play out.
He's never had a problem with the whole West Lothian Question thing, so I don't see how he can complain too much when the boot's on the other foot.
[removed duplicate post - the cider is starting to kick in!!!]
No doubt he'll be complaining in public, but in private he'll be delighted. He doesn't want the Union to work for Scotland.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
Paisley just went to the SNP candidate - a 20 year old student, it was Douglas Alexander there. Wow!
27% swing to the SNP there, and it was a big one for Labour to lose.
[ 08. May 2015, 01:25: Message edited by: luvanddaisies ]
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
27% swing !
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
That's it, Labour are dead in Scotland.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I would love to know the turn out.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
39% swing to SNP in Dunbarton!
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
That's it, Labour are dead in Scotland.
I think anybody but the SNP is dead in Scotland.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
75% turnout. Very decent.
A lot of the SNP support will be from first-time voters. The Tory and Labour parties should be reminded that the SNP are what a political party ought to look like.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
75% turnout in Paisley
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
34% swing to the SNP in Dumbarton!
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Hail Gallaxhar
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
That's it, Labour are dead in Scotland.
I think anybody but the SNP is dead in Scotland.
Point.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
I would love to know the turn out.
So far, all the Scottish constituencies are above 70% turn out
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
I've been waiting for the Scottish constituencies to declare - but I wasn't expecting the level of swing that these first few have been showing. 34% in East Dumbarton!
I guess Mhairi Black in Paisley will be the youngest MP for a very long time - ah, BBC saying she's the youngest since the Reform Act. Good on her, I wish her well.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
I would love to know the turn out.
So far, all the Scottish constituencies are above 70% turn out
And above 25% swings from Lab to SNP.
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Hail Gallaxhar
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by luvanddaisies:
I guess Mhairi Black in Paisley will be the youngest MP for a very long time - ah, BBC saying she's the youngest since the Reform Act. Good on her, I wish her well.
Apparently youngest MP since 1662. I hope her party support her well.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I wonder if there are more female voters for SNP.
My understanding, that could be wrong, is that SNP is to the left of labour ?
[ 08. May 2015, 01:33: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
UKIP lose in Castle Point. That was one of their big targets.
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Hail Gallaxhar
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North East Quine
Curious beastie
# 13049
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Posted
SNP are where Labour used to be. But Labour are seen as having swung to the right, hence the "Red Tories" comments.
Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Yay, a fragment of good news.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
My understanding, that could be wrong, is that SNP is to the left of labour ?
That's right.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
SNP are where Labour used to be. But Labour are seen as having swung to the right, hence the "Red Tories" comments.
I wonder if Labour didn't pull left enough, I know part of the appeal of the greens - and one of the reasons I considered voting for them - is because they are an actual left wing party.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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North East Quine
Curious beastie
# 13049
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Posted
Scottish Labour were to the left of Westminster Labour. But they were seen as humstrung by the Westminster party.
Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
One of the talking heads - either on BBC or c4, I forget which, was saying Labour had gone too far to the left. If that's too far to the left, there must be some previous Labour leaders absolutely spinning in their graves.
Bloody Bliar and his 'New Labour' shift to the right.
To think how excited we were in my halls of residence that night in '97 seeing a Labour government taking over from the Tories - the first time any of us had seen a non-Tory administration in our lives. How disappointing the reality was.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
My constituency has now come through, with another massive swing to SNP. Though, now find my intent to vote Green (had I actually got the vote I should have had) was vain since there was no Green candidate! In which case my (non)vote would have joined the SNP swing.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Mench saying something I actually agree with Farage.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
Motherwell - was a really safe Labour seat - not this time - another 34% swing to the SNP. Extraordinary.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Oh yes, please - that man is a disgrace.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by luvanddaisies:
To think how excited we were in my halls of residence that night in '97 seeing a Labour government taking over from the Tories - the first time any of us had seen a non-Tory administration in our lives. How disappointing the reality was.
I remember it well. However, the reality is that Labour did pretty much what they said they'd do in their manifesto. I remember, for example, campus being full of students believing that Labour would reinstate student grants. They had simply made no such promise. Papers like the Guardian were full of stuff about how wonderful it would be, but the truth was they simply hadn't been paying attention to what Labour politicians had been saying.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
Jo Swinson has gone as well. The surprising thing is that it's not even a surprise anymore...
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
35% swing in Kirkcaldy !
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
And there goes Gordon Brown's old seat. Only a 35% swing.....
This is unprecedented. I'm so glad I stayed up to see what could turn out to be a key moment for the entire country - the entire Union.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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