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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: UK Election 2015
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Let's see what Ed has to say.
A concession speech in all but name.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Not quite a concession. I guess he is biding his time, just in case.
[ 08. May 2015, 04:28: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
Not quite, but all but. I think he knows he'll be back on the backbenches by June.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
The Tories are winning seats from Labour in South Wales. Do I need to say more?
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
I do fear that the stranglehold political parties have on the electoral process would only get worse under PR, resulting in ever more sanitised candidates chosen on the basis of focus groups and market research rather than normal people from normal backgrounds who wish to represent the people around them.
That's certainly true for a list system, but list systems are evil. For a real multi-member constituency with STV or some Condorcet method to elect the members, I'm not sure it is.
Correct. However, it is the evil type of PR that has been chosen for European elections and for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. There seems to be a disinclination for STV generally, with the exception of the NI Assembly. I suspect that PR for Westminster elections would result in closed lists.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Firenze
Ordinary decent pagan
# 619
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Piglet:
The SNP hasn't taken Orkney and Shetland.
I expect they're holding out for re-unification with Norway.
I'm not surprised Iain Murray held Edinburgh South: he's put in the work these last 5 years and he fought on his record. Even the guy in the yellow rosette outside the polling station admitted he'd voted for him.
Posts: 17302 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
A small thing perhaps in the greater scheme of things, but the Tories just took the lead for the first time in terms of both seats and votes.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
Sinn Fein lost a seat. Does that do anything ironic to the electoral math for the Conservatives reaching majority government in their own right?
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
Danny Alexander has gone as well. Which should come as no surprise at this point...
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Alwyn
Shipmate
# 4380
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Sinn Fein lost a seat. Does that do anything ironic to the electoral math for the Conservatives reaching majority government in their own right?
Yes, it might (depending, of course, on which party won the seat). Sinn Fein MPs don't occupy their seats in the Commons, if I remember correctly.
The media here have been saying that although 326 seats are a Commons majority, the biggest party could have an effective majority with 323 seats (partly because of Sinn Fein and partly because the Speaker not voting, IIRC). I think I saw BBC predicting that the Conservatives would get 325 seats a few minutes ago.
[ 08. May 2015, 04:57: Message edited by: Alwyn ]
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Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
Posts: 849 | From: UK | Registered: Apr 2003
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Sinn Fein lost a seat. Does that do anything ironic to the electoral math for the Conservatives reaching majority government in their own right?
No. Sinn Fein traditionally don't actually take up their seats because they refuse to swear the loyal oath to the Queen, so their seats have never really mattered. One imagines the Unionists will support the Tories in most votes even if they don't join in a formal coalition.
To be honest, the Northern Irish seats aren't normally thought about much during general elections. It's only because this one looked like being so close that they might have been relevant.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Jay-Emm
Shipmate
# 11411
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
Sinn Fein lost a seat. Does that do anything ironic to the electoral math for the Conservatives reaching majority government in their own right?
No. Sinn Fein traditionally don't actually take up their seats because they refuse to swear the loyal oath to the Queen
That's why it might do something Ironic, there's now someone slightly more pro-cameron than sinn-fein but who will be there.
Posts: 1643 | Registered: May 2006
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North East Quine
Curious beastie
# 13049
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Posted
Only one Scottish seat left, and it's going to a recount. The sitting Lib Dem has conceded, it's between the Tories and the SNP. If the Tories get it, betjemaniac's prediction that the Tories would be the second party in Scotland will come true.
Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
I see your point.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
Galloway took an absolute hiding.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Piglet
Islander
# 11803
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
quote:
Originally posted by Piglet:
The SNP hasn't taken Orkney and Shetland.
I expect they're holding out for re-unification with Norway ...
Funny you should say that - D. wondered if we'd be singing Ja, vi elsker dette landet* next time we're in Orkney.
* The Norwegian national anthem. ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
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I may not be on an island any more, but I'm still an islander.
alto n a soprano who can read music
Posts: 20272 | From: Fredericton, NB, on a rather larger piece of rock | Registered: Sep 2006
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
At the moment there are only two constituencies I'm really waiting to here from.
Thanet South - hopefully wiping that smug grin off Farage's face
Brighton - hoping Caroline Lucas holds on
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Piglet
Islander
# 11803
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Piglet:
... voting for the person rather than the party.
I think that functionally that is unusual, except in the case of voting for an independent candidate ...
Unusual, yes, but not unheard-of. After decades of returning Conservatives, in (I think) 1997, Colchester (D's home town) elected a Liberal Democrat (who had previously been a Labour town councillor). He turned out to be a very good constituency MP, and has only now been defeated; my understanding was that many people would have voted for the man rather than the party.
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I may not be on an island any more, but I'm still an islander.
alto n a soprano who can read music
Posts: 20272 | From: Fredericton, NB, on a rather larger piece of rock | Registered: Sep 2006
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
At the moment there are only two constituencies I'm really waiting to here from.
Thanet South - hopefully wiping that smug grin off Farage's face
Brighton - hoping Caroline Lucas holds on
I'd actually agree with both of those wishes.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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crunt
Shipmate
# 1321
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
I do wonder why Plaid Cymri are not as successful as the SNP (in general maybe not a massive landslide.)
To add to Marvin and Alan's points; I think that a lot of people in Wales might support Plaid's left-leaning policies, but they're skittish about the language issue. An agenda that the Scottish Nationalists don't push as hard as the Welsh ones.
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QUIZ: Bible
QUIZ: world religions
LTL Discussion
languagespider.com
Posts: 269 | From: Up country in the middle of Malaysia | Registered: Sep 2001
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Firenze
Ordinary decent pagan
# 619
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Posted
Well, I shall be interested to see how the SNP walk the walk. They have sold themselves as the party of the Left - let's see how that works out.
Labour's rebuild in Scotland as to come via the Scottish Parliament. In a way, it's what I hoped for when it was first established - that we would get quality representatives choosing to make their political careers here rather than in Westminster. A hope that was not altogether easy to sustain in the light of the post-Dewar Labour FMs.
It was forseeable ble, I suppose, that if anyone was going to prioritise Scotland, it would be the Nationalists, and the electorate have rewarded them.
[ 08. May 2015, 06:01: Message edited by: Firenze ]
Posts: 17302 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
BBC exit poll: Con 316, Lab 239, LD 10, SNP 58, UKIP 2, Green 2, PC 4, Others 19.
If this is correct, I don't want to live in this country any more. I don't want to live in a country ruled by and for fucking stupid selfish bastards and their dupes.
I have avoided any news until about five minutes ago. I feel sick, and totally agree with you.
I hear Kipling "If England were as England seems, and not the England of our dreams, how quick we'd leave her, but she ain't." But she is, isn't she?
Posts: 5833 | Registered: May 2009
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Demas
Ship's Deserter
# 24
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Posted
The Guardian's current count has SNP with 1.4m votes which gets them 55 seats, and UKIP with 3.2m votes, which gets them 1 seat.
Wow. I mean, I know why it happens, but still, wow.
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They did not appear very religious; that is, they were not melancholy; and I therefore suspected they had not much piety - Life of Rev John Murray
Posts: 1894 | From: Thessalonica | Registered: May 2004
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Mr Clingford
Shipmate
# 7961
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Posted
Well, at least Caroline Lucas won.
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Ne'er cast a clout till May be out.
If only.
Posts: 1660 | From: A Fleeting moment | Registered: Jul 2004
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Demas:
The Guardian's current count has SNP with 1.4m votes which gets them 55 seats, and UKIP with 3.2m votes, which gets them 1 seat.
Wow. I mean, I know why it happens, but still, wow.
Oh not this again.
1.4m votes in 59 seats, versus 3.2m votes in close to 650 seats.
If you actually did a per seat comparison, you'd be saying wow for completely different reasons. The SNP got enough votes to sweep the seats they actually contested under almost any electoral system.
A far more sensible comparison is between UKIP and the Lib Dems.
[ 08. May 2015, 06:50: Message edited by: orfeo ]
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
Drifted off to sleep for a couple of hours. Woke up to the nightmare of that Exit Poll having been pretty much right about the Tories - in fact, it looks like so many of the turkeys did the bidding of the right-wind press and voted for christmas, that they might even make it to a majority. ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
At least Caroline Lucas held her Brighton seat and increased her majority.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
To the victor the spoils in just about every way then. Cameron wins, and Milliband, Clegg and possibly Farage could all be gone by the end of today.
Osborne rubbing it in by saying he was sorry to see Danny Alexander go but that Lib Dems had paid the price for distancing themselves from the last government's success.
Ashdon will be eating his hat though apparently...
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76
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Posted
What now? The question now for me is what I can do to help protect the Tories' prospective victims over the next five years.
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Might as well ask the bloody cat.
Posts: 17938 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: May 2001
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Ashdown will be eating his hat though apparently...
Andrew Neil has a hat ready in the studio he says is for that purpose.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
Some time ago, I watched a programme about Athens, in which the personable young man explained how, after the democratic stuff we all learn about, where the demos had to be involved in government because otherwise they wouldn't power the triremes, the oligarchs took back the reins of government. I had the feeling at the time that he wasn't just talking about Classical Athens.
As Lindsey Davis' Roman novels weren't just talking about the loss of the Republic.
I think I want a liberal/green party - and I'm glad Caroline Lucas held on, despite the complaints about the council's policies. But it doesn't matter now, because it's all gone forever, the good stuff, the caring, the concern for the weaker members of society. They are going to ensure that we can never have the NHS back, the schools back, all to be in the hands of mad Republican run companies from the US until the sea rises and swallows everything up.
I find myself remembering the careful description in the appeal to the Emperor of the last Roman Britons - the barbarians drive us into the sea, and the sea drives us back to the barbarians. And th barbarians are my neighbours, and the sea will rise much further than it did in the 5th century.
And I'm writing like this even though I didn't stay up, and carefully did not, as I usually do, have the radio on under my pillow to send me to sleep.
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Demas
Ship's Deserter
# 24
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by Demas:
The Guardian's current count has SNP with 1.4m votes which gets them 55 seats, and UKIP with 3.2m votes, which gets them 1 seat.
Wow. I mean, I know why it happens, but still, wow.
Oh not this again.
1.4m votes in 59 seats, versus 3.2m votes in close to 650 seats.
![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif) Thanks for the lesson, professor. As I said, I know why it happens.
But, still, wow.
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They did not appear very religious; that is, they were not melancholy; and I therefore suspected they had not much piety - Life of Rev John Murray
Posts: 1894 | From: Thessalonica | Registered: May 2004
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by luvanddaisies:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Ashdown will be eating his hat though apparently...
Andrew Neil has a hat ready in the studio he says is for that purpose.
Ashdown has just declined, but said he will do it next to Campbell eating his kilt
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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IngoB
Sentire cum Ecclesia
# 8700
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Posted
So, what is the political lesson here? Or is there one? How much of this result boils down to issues of personality, or even simply appearance? I will be honest here, I had a very hard time imaging Ed Miliband as prime minister. Maybe lots of actual voters had that same problem and voted with their guts...
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They’ll have me whipp’d for speaking true; thou’lt have me whipp’d for lying; and sometimes I am whipp’d for holding my peace. - The Fool in King Lear
Posts: 12010 | From: Gone fishing | Registered: Oct 2004
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Sarasa
Shipmate
# 12271
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Posted
Penny S said:
quote:
But it doesn't matter now, because it's all gone forever, the good stuff, the caring, the concern for the weaker members of society. They are going to ensure that we can never have the NHS back, the schools back, all to be in the hands of mad Republican run companies from the US until the sea rises and swallows everything up.
I feel your pain. My only hope is that the Tories start infighting over the promised referendum on Europe so they don't have time to muck every thing else up even more.
One of my husband's friends has just sent him an email full of smiley faces as our seat went blue - grrr.
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'I guess things didn't go so well tonight, but I'm trying. Lord, I'm trying.' Charlie (Harvey Keitel) in Mean Streets.
Posts: 2035 | From: London | Registered: Jan 2007
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
Ed Balls gone in Leeds. And Mark Reckless too. Ukip could be down to one...
(Wrong Ukip man completely)
[ 08. May 2015, 07:23: Message edited by: lowlands_boy ]
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
Ed Balls has gone.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
I can't find it at the moment, but somewhere in the middle of this thread, I did predict a week or so ago that it was curtains for Balls, and the Tories would have most seats and most votes (absolutely did not see a majority or close to one though).
Didn't call Scotland right, although the vote in Berwickshire is very tight between the SNP and the Tories who came second, but the Conservatives did hold their one Scottish seat.
I think this is where I retire from punditry while I'm ahead ![[Hot and Hormonal]](icon_redface.gif)
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
So, Conservatives have won seats from Labour (Balls being notable ) the Lib Dems, and UKIP. Seems the only foe they didn't vanquish was SNP, but SNP have helped finish off Labour on top of all that.
Good day for Cameron who can rely on NI Unionists to get started by bunging a few billion their say.
Which pollsters have come out best then?
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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Alyosha
Shipmate
# 18395
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
So, what is the political lesson here? Or is there one? How much of this result boils down to issues of personality, or even simply appearance? I will be honest here, I had a very hard time imaging Ed Miliband as prime minister. Maybe lots of actual voters had that same problem and voted with their guts...
People will deny it, but the way politicians look is almost certainly more influential than you may think. Politics is, in essence, all about the way things look.
Ed Miliband stumbling in the last election debate, being shown eating a bacon sandwich on the cover of The Sun, being portrayed on Newzoids as ineffective and wimpy ('At least I tried'). These are the things which politics lecturers will be talking to their students about in years to come when analysing the whole thing.
Posts: 162 | From: UK | Registered: Apr 2015
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Demas:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by Demas:
The Guardian's current count has SNP with 1.4m votes which gets them 55 seats, and UKIP with 3.2m votes, which gets them 1 seat.
Wow. I mean, I know why it happens, but still, wow.
Oh not this again.
1.4m votes in 59 seats, versus 3.2m votes in close to 650 seats.
Thanks for the lesson, professor. As I said, I know why it happens.
But, still, wow.
But the total figure is completely meaningless! Why are you quoting it?
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
A perfect result for the SNP. And for UKIP! Perfect. Britain continues it's post-war 57% Tory to 43% Labour government tradition. We're a marginally nasty country as usual.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Which pollsters have come out best then?
Well, the exit poll compilers must be patting each other on the back.
Oh wow, just as I posted that they showed a graphic comparing the Exit Poll to the real figures so far - and they're almost identical.
[ 08. May 2015, 07:54: Message edited by: luvanddaisies ]
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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Spike
Mostly Harmless
# 36
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Posted
Labour seem to have bucked the trend where I live. Here in Croydon North the Labour majority actually increased. In the neighbouring constituency of Croydon Central (where I was trudging the streets yesterday getting the Labour vote out) the Tory held the seat but with a majority of only 165.
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"May you get to heaven before the devil knows you're dead" - Irish blessing
Posts: 12860 | From: The Valley of Crocuses | Registered: May 2001
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itsarumdo
Shipmate
# 18174
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Posted
I can't help but wonder what the result would have been if most of the press were not pro-conservative, rather like the republicans in the US. An electorate fed poor information and misinformation and diverted from important issues so they can be left in back rooms is not really able to express itself democratically. Well - I guess by definition democracy is by the will of the people - so the Greeks left a lot of leeway for how opinions might be made and changed.
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"Iti sapis potanda tinone" Lycophron
Posts: 994 | From: Planet Zog | Registered: Jul 2014
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
That's the frustrating thing, Itsarumdo - the number of people who just believe what they read in the paper. I wonder whether there could ever be a way to actually measure the "It's the Sun Wot Won It" effect.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
The press is only one part of the media, and the BBC, an important part of the media, is not right wing. Also the print media is declining in importance. Doesn't seem to have hurt the right-wing parties in this election.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The press is only one part of the media, and the BBC, an important part of the media, is not right wing.
It's not as right-wing as the print press, but it's not left-wing - look at the airtime it has given to UKIP over the last year or two, or how it covered the Scottish Independence Referendum a few months ago.
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
Posts: 3711 | From: all at sea. | Registered: Apr 2004
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
We've a majority of people who want a government that thinks human rights are something to be got rid of and welfare is a word for something bad.
I thought I could walk and work this off at the outdoor gym, but no. And I haven't met anyone to have a sensible discussion with - I know my direct neighbours will be OK for that when I see them, but I can't trust anyone else.
Many moons ago, our family was sitting in church behind three old ladies, retired private school teachers, the Sunday after Thatcher got in. One turned round and beamed at us, and declared how wonderful it was, like a heavy dark cloud lifted off our shoulders. We were silent.
Posts: 5833 | Registered: May 2009
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by luvanddaisies:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The press is only one part of the media, and the BBC, an important part of the media, is not right wing.
It's not as right-wing as the print press, but it's not left-wing - look at the airtime it has given to UKIP over the last year or two, or how it covered the Scottish Independence Referendum a few months ago.
I don't think there's anything remarkable about its coverage of UKIP, to be honest, nor do I see referendum as a left/right wing matter.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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