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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
I thought that this article on Obama had quite a lot of insight into American politics (as you'd expect from a President who, ahem, is a fully functioning adult) and how the Republican base has got American politics where it is now.
Personally I can't shake the view that there's been a large dollop of racism, and now misogyny, in this process. In essence, that a large chunk of Republican support is coming from people who cannot cope with white men not being in charge any more. None of that is in the article, that's just my own personal feeling.
[ 03. October 2016, 22:01: Message edited by: orfeo ]
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Twilight
Puddleglum's sister
# 2832
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
I think the gap between rich and poor has become so enormous people have become confused. Like when we hear the story today of someone having 7 million quids worth of bling stolen from a hotel room. It is odd, surreal, we do not know how to process it.
I know, it really threw me for a minute and, call me judgmental, but it seemed really, deeply immoral to me. I usually don't care how people spend their money and if they want to spend it all on antique dolls or a dozen yachts in different colors, it's nothing to me. But the idea of 7 million dollars worth of shiny rocks when that money could feed thousands of hungry children, and vaccinate them for parasites, and fix their cleft palates, and send them to school -- at some level it just has to be so wrong.
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
I find it difficult to imagine Donald Trump concerned about unvaccinated children. I saw today that if he is elected he will be the only President who has never owned a pet. There is a lack of empathy in the man that never fails to shock.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
I find it difficult to imagine Donald Trump concerned about unvaccinated children.
Especially given that he's an anti-vaxxer according to those pinkos at Forbes. Which is unsurprising given that conspiracy theories are often believed in clusters.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Trump's laddish behavior on the Apprentice. Someone has finally proposed a good reason for why these ructions, any one of which would have sent an ordinary pol down in flames, have no real effect. This is the Three Stooges theory. The Stooges Larry, Moe and Curly had a schtick where they would all three try to barrel through a door at the same time. They would get stuck and nobody would be able to pass through.
And so it is with Trump scandals. There are so many, they blur in the mind. They all jam in the portal and none of them can pass through to the richly-deserved outrage they ought to get.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
I thought that this article on Obama had quite a lot of insight into American politics (as you'd expect from a President who, ahem, is a fully functioning adult) and how the Republican base has got American politics where it is now.
Personally I can't shake the view that there's been a large dollop of racism, and now misogyny, in this process. In essence, that a large chunk of Republican support is coming from people who cannot cope with white men not being in charge any more. None of that is in the article, that's just my own personal feeling.
Oh, the racism had been obvious since 2008. Hell, people were defending a political cartoon featuring a capering monkey with a watermelon slice on the Whitehouse lawn within weeks of the election.
Michael Moore called it something like " the death throes of the dinosaurs "
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
I think the Trump candidacy shows the dinosaurs are far from dead.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
Me too. New thing about Trump, Veterans and PTSD being reported down here, but I think it's a bullshit criticism of Trump, so I'm not going to mention it. There are plenty of 100% no-poo criticisms available.
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
I find it difficult to imagine Donald Trump concerned about unvaccinated children. I saw today that if he is elected he will be the only President who has never owned a pet. There is a lack of empathy in the man that never fails to shock.
Ummm:
--Lots of people never own pets.
--Lots of those people have empathy.
--Lots of pet owners don't have empathy--at least, not for their pets.
Not arguing that Trump has empathy--just that not having a pet isn't necessarily related.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
simontoad:
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
Me too. New thing about Trump, Veterans and PTSD being reported down here, but I think it's a bullshit criticism of Trump, so I'm not going to mention it. There are plenty of 100% no-poo criticisms available.
Well, considering how he dissed Sen. John McCain, who was a POW (something to the effect of "POWs aren't winners; they get captured; I like winners"), don't automatically discount whatever you're referring to.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
yeah, that's right up there on my list of reasons why Donald J Trump is a cockhead.
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
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Posted
I wasn't particularly offended by Trump's putdown of McCain, but then, I'm not the kind of person who usually goes for macho-patriotic valorization of supposed war heroes.
Which is kind of what made that incident so odd. Normally, you'd expect your typical GOP primary voter to recoil from gratuitous insults directed against a veteran who was shot down and tortured as a POW. But it didn't seem to hurt Trump much among his target demographic.
Either times are changing, and appeals to the sanctity of war heroes don't carry the same weight with people as they previously did, or else Trump's followers are willing to ignore those sorts of insults as long as the guy making them adopts a suitably macho posture.
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
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Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
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Posted
Reading his comments just now on Slate, they don't seem all that offensive when taken in context. He doesn't seem to be mocking suicidal veterans for not being "strong" or being unable to "handle it", just saying that not everyone has the same level of psychological tolerance for certain things that happen in war, and that the government needs to take better care of the ones who are more seriously effected.
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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
I wasn't particularly offended by Trump's putdown of McCain,
The biggest problem with the orange idiot's comment regarding McCain is not that he insulted or offended anyone but that it is a stupid comment.
Getting shot down or captured does not change hero status in either direction.
It just reinforces how little he thinks about what he says and how unstable he is.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
I think the Trump candidacy shows the dinosaurs are far from dead.
And many people adore them.
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Twilight
Puddleglum's sister
# 2832
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Reading his comments just now on Slate, they don't seem all that offensive when taken in context. He doesn't seem to be mocking suicidal veterans for not being "strong" or being unable to "handle it", just saying that not everyone has the same level of psychological tolerance for certain things that happen in war, and that the government needs to take better care of the ones who are more seriously effected.
Yes, I really think he was saying that we need more help for vets in the area of mental health, but, as usual, he has so little diplomacy, so little real empathy for people that he didn't realize that "not as strong as other people," was the very last thing these men wanted to hear.
He could have made the same plea for mental health care in the military by saying something like, "Even the strongest men can face things in combat that are impossible to imagine by people who have never been there. They need help getting past those traumatic memories -- anyone would."
His complete lack of verbal skills, even just ordinary tact, is one of the main reasons he would be a terrible president. He can hire a team of advisors to make rational decisions for him, but only Trump himself will be speaking for the country on a daily basis.
Posts: 6817 | Registered: May 2002
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
nice post. It puts the problem with Trump well.
I am one of those people who values military service as service to the community. What blew my gasket about the comment concerning McCain was that it was made by a man who avoided military service in that same war on spurious medical grounds.
As I said, the guy is a cockhead.
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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sharkshooter
Not your average shark
# 1589
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Posted
I think Trump is the best gift anybody could have ever given Hillary. Considering she is barely ahead in popular opinion, according to the poll results I have seen, I don't think she would have a chance against a good Republican candidate.
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Let the words of my mouth, and the meditation of my heart, be acceptable in thy sight, O LORD, my strength, and my redeemer. [Psalm 19:14]
Posts: 7772 | From: Canada; Washington DC; Phoenix; it's complicated | Registered: Oct 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Yes, she has been really lucky. And that is (as Napoleon said) a supremely desirable quality in a leader.
Obama is lucky too -- the only question is whether the luck carries over to the national level, and I think we can say that it has. Alas, there is no good test for this trait.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Reading his comments just now on Slate, they don't seem all that offensive when taken in context. He doesn't seem to be mocking suicidal veterans for not being "strong" or being unable to "handle it", just saying that not everyone has the same level of psychological tolerance for certain things that happen in war, and that the government needs to take better care of the ones who are more seriously effected.
This post seems like an exercise in missing the point. One of the biggest problems with treating mental illness, particularly in the military or among veterans, is the stigma attached to it. Those who don't need help dealing with PTSD are "strong", while those who do are "weak" (a category often scorned by both the military and the Trump campaign). By framing PTSD in this strong/weak dichotomy Donald Trump is undermining a whole lot of effort spent trying to de-stigmatize mental health services among the military/veterans. It's not a question of whether Trump is "mocking" veterans, it's the fact that he's doing real harm to efforts to help veterans.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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mdijon
Shipmate
# 8520
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Twilight:
He could have made the same plea for mental health care in the military by saying something like, "Even the strongest men can face things in combat that are impossible to imagine by people who have never been there. They need help getting past those traumatic memories -- anyone would."
Twilight for president. A rational world puts you one up already.
quote:
Originally posted by Twilight:
He can hire a team of advisors to make rational decisions for him, but only Trump himself will be speaking for the country on a daily basis.
But he doesn't have the insight to recognize rational advisors. I guess in an ideal world presidents should appoint the advisors that tell them what they would have thought if they'd thought about it long enough to save them the thinking time, even if that goes against the grain of their first thoughts. Trump will want everyone to line up with his knee-jerk narcissistic reaction on each issue (even if the knee-jerk is 180 degrees from yesterday's knee-jerk).
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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon
Posts: 12277 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2004
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by sharkshooter:
I think Trump is the best gift anybody could have ever given Hillary. Considering she is barely ahead in popular opinion, according to the poll results I have seen, I don't think she would have a chance against a good Republican candidate.
I'm not sure how much luck has to do with it. It always seemed likely that Republicans would react to the first woman nominated for president on a major party ticket by nominating a massive misogynist to oppose her. Trump is underperforming in basic campaign organization (the "ground game") but he's managed to create a strong core of highly motivated racist and sexist (excuse me, "politically incorrect") followers in a way that I don't see any other contemporary Republican being able to do. The folks at Stormfront, Vdare, the KKK, they're all now enthusiastically engaged in a way that I can't see Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, or Ted Cruz inspiring in them. I'm actually being serious about this. White supremacists have long been politically apathetic as a group, regarding both major political parties as hostile to white nationalism. Donald Trump has managed to tap in to that pool of new voters.
One of the long-term assumptions of political analysis in the U.S. is that racism is a small, fringe concern and politically negligible. I think this election is putting that analysis to the test.
In short, I don't see any reason to believe that [Rubio/J.E.B./Cruz/whoever] would be able to campaign more effectively against Hillary Clinton than they were against Donald Trump.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
Speaking of which, let's check in and see what J.E.B. is up to these days:
quote:
Last week Bush came to Harvard to deliver its annual Godkin Lecture. That the occasion was announced just two days ahead of time came as something of a surprise. I went round to hear what the would-have-been candidate had to say.
The Godkin series is Harvard’s most most prestigious lecture in the social sciences. It was established in 1903, endowed by Andrew Carnegie, J.P. Morgan, and others, to explore the essentials of democratic government and the duties of the citizen, in memory of Edwin Godkin, founder of The Nation magazine and for twenty years editor of The New York Post. Herbert Croly, Walter Lippmann, J. Robert Oppenheimer, C.P. Snow, Clark Kerr, Gunnar Myrdal, Paul Samuelson, George Will, Daniel Patrick Moynihan have been among the lecturers.
Bush’s presentation turned out not to be a lecture. It was billed as a “conversation,” but what the audience heard instead was an abbreviated stump speech, plus some back-and forth with Harvard professors Paul E. Peterson and Roland Fryer. “I was thinking about what I was going to talk about,” he said, “and I asked my mother, who is the boss of the Bush family, and she said, ‘Jeb, talk about ten minutes, then get off and let people ask you questions.’”
He talked for fifteen minutes about the desirability of a “bottom-up” society of individuals as opposed to a “top-down” society in which institutions were paramount, ending with a call for a “radical transformation” of public education.
I'm really not seeing the case that this is the kind of opponent who would put the hard work in to a campaign capable of defeating Hillary Clinton.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
We are now 35 days from Election Day 2016. The Vice Presidential debate is tonight and we are 5 days from the second Presidential debate. We're also 8 days past the first presidential debate so any effect it had should be reflected in polling by now. Recent revelations about Trump's taxes will not have had a chance to show up in polling yet, though. The previous entry in this series can be found here.
Nate Silver has the probability of a Clinton victory at 69%, with an average outcome of 299 electoral votes for Clinton. This is a bounce back from the last time we checked in, most likely due to the first debate. Silver remains the most "bearish" of the major predictors on a Clinton victory.
Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium predicts an 84% chance of a Clinton victory using a random drift model and a 90% chance using Bayesian analysis. Wang's average outcome is Clinton getting 315 electoral votes.
RealClearPolitics, which is a current state aggregator rather than a predicting trend analyzer, currently has Clinton winning 205 electoral votes, Trump winning 165, and 168 electoral votes listed as "toss ups". Trump has gained one electoral vote (according to RCP) since last time by adding Maine's 2nd congressional district. (Maine is one of two states that sub-divides their electoral vote by congressional district.)
The folks at electoral-vote.com (another real-time poll aggregator like RealClearPolitics) currently have Clinton winning 323 electoral votes to Trump's 215 if the election were held today.
So Trump seems to have lost most (but not all) of the gains he had made in our last analysis two weeks ago.
Once again the usual caveats apply about how anything can change in the next five weeks. This is the current state of play, not a prediction.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Carex
Shipmate
# 9643
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Posted
Historically the Vice-Presidential debates have had negligible effect on the polling for President. But 2016 is an unusual political year. If the rumors are true that Trump has said he would leave most of the details to his Vice-President, then Pence's far-right views could be of more concern to voters.
Meanwhile, Pence's refusal to resettle Syrian refugees has been struck down by the Circuit Court of Appeals. (He accepted Federal funds to resettle refugees in his State, but refused to accept any Syrians.) And this wasn't exactly a liberal panel - all three judges were appointed by Republican presidents, and one was on Trump's list of potential Supreme Court nominees.
Posts: 1425 | Registered: Jun 2005
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
... Well, considering how he dissed Sen. John McCain, who was a POW (something to the effect of "POWs aren't winners; they get captured; I like winners"), don't automatically discount whatever you're referring to.
A person who has never seen active service and been at risk of being taken prisoner is not entitled to say that.
And that's it. No room for debate on the point.
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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sabine
Shipmate
# 3861
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Carex:
Meanwhile, Pence's refusal to resettle Syrian refugees has been struck down by the Circuit Court of Appeals. (He accepted Federal funds to resettle refugees in his State, but refused to accept any Syrians.) And this wasn't exactly a liberal panel - all three judges were appointed by Republican presidents, and one was on Trump's list of potential Supreme Court nominees.
I'm a refugee worker in Indiana (Pence's state). He refused to accept Syrian refugees but our two resettlement agencies resettled them anyway, so his refusal had only a momentary impact on the Syrians coming here.
Pence had a meeting with Catholic Charities (one of the resettlement agencies) and the Archbishop basically said:
God bless you, Governor, but we are going to resettle anyway And the other agency went ahead as well, and then sued the Governor (along with the ACLU).
After the courts announced that he had no legal recourse, Pence's office said he would continue to fight. I'm not sure he gets that he has lost in court or that his refusal to resettle is basically unconstitutional (we have freedom of movement in the US and state borders are not closed). He has tried refusing to let Syrian refugees have any state services, but that was part of the court action. Anything he tries now will be struck down again . . .
. . .but like his running mate, he lives in his own little world, and just doesn't get the finer points of the constitution.
sabine
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"Hunger looks like the man that hunger is killing." Eduardo Galeano
Posts: 5887 | From: the US Heartland | Registered: Dec 2002
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Soror Magna
Shipmate
# 9881
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Over on Salon Heather Digby Parton says, "If you think Trump is a genius for gaming the system so that he never has to pay federal income tax, that’s your prerogative. But please don’t ever say another word about “makers and takers” or the 47 percent again. We taxpayers have been carrying Donald Trump for 30 years while he was living in his golden palace. He’s the biggest welfare queen in the world."
It's just bizarre. The federal income tax thing is spinning like a falling cat with buttered toast on its back. Last election cycle, those who didn't pay federal income tax, were in the 47% and were "takers" whose votes Obama bought with government handouts. But this time around, someone who doesn't pay federal income tax can say "that makes me smart". That would make the 47% smart as well, no? So it's smart to be a taker? I guess that means makers are dumb. But wait, we need the makers to create wealth and jobs. But wait, how can they do that if they're dumb? And did Trump vote for Obama? ![[Ultra confused]](graemlins/confused2.gif)
I guess this sort of confusion was inevitable among citizens who believe that taxation is theft and that ev'ry thang'll be jes' fine with no gummint at all tellin' us all what to do.
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"You come with me to room 1013 over at the hospital, I'll show you America. Terminal, crazy and mean." -- Tony Kushner, "Angels in America"
Posts: 5430 | From: Caprica City | Registered: Jul 2005
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Both my children are in the US Army, and so I pay close attention to any politician's attitudes towards war and the military. Trump long ago lost me, when I learned that he had gotten four deferments to avoid service in Vietnam. (Heel spurs, I believe, were his health issue. He cannot remember which heel it was.)
That he was so contemptuous of John McCain and now of other vets simply confirms my judgment.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
I didn't know what a heel spur was - it turns out the thing I had once which I cut off with nail scissors wasn't one. The causes of them is an interesting list.
Risk factors for heel spurs include:
Walking gait abnormalities,which place excessive stress on the heel bone, ligaments, and nerves near the heel
Running or jogging, especially on hard surfaces
Poorly fitted or badly worn shoes, especially those lacking appropriate arch support
Excess weight and obesity
Now, how did Trump get one of those things? Which are treatable.
Posts: 5833 | Registered: May 2009
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Soror Magna
Shipmate
# 9881
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Reading his comments just now on Slate, they don't seem all that offensive when taken in context. He doesn't seem to be mocking suicidal veterans for not being "strong" or being unable to "handle it", just saying that not everyone has the same level of psychological tolerance for certain things that happen in war, and that the government needs to take better care of the ones who are more seriously effected.
Except that nobody ever says, "Well, you know, some people have weaker legs than others, and those are the ones who break their leg skiing." It's one of the most stigmatizing stereotypes about mental illness, and it causes and prolongs human misery.
It's also not necessarily a good thing to be able to "tolerate" what happens in a war. It can be a sign of sadism or disassociation, and most of us probably know some those veterans from previous generations who "tolerated" their experiences with the use of alcohol. A better word to use is resilience.
Now, an intelligent candidate could have said that all soldiers see and/or experience horrible things, it's natural to be affected by them, and it's not weak to be deeply affected by suffering, it's human. But it's Dinky we're talking about. No brains, no heart, and fake courage.
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"You come with me to room 1013 over at the hospital, I'll show you America. Terminal, crazy and mean." -- Tony Kushner, "Angels in America"
Posts: 5430 | From: Caprica City | Registered: Jul 2005
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
'Not being able to handle it' is very close to the expression that was used in school 'he can't take it', or 'he can't hack it' as a criticism of someone who had, perhaps cried or come to a teacher or assistant about an incident.
It was invariable used by the bully who lay behind the incident, and who seemed to be completely bemused by my asking why on earth the victim should have to take it.
I suppose it will have echoes in places far from UK primary schools.
Posts: 5833 | Registered: May 2009
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Stumbling Pilgrim
Shipmate
# 7637
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Both my children are in the US Army, and so I pay close attention to any politician's attitudes towards war and the military. Trump long ago lost me, when I learned that he had gotten four deferments to avoid service in Vietnam. (Heel spurs, I believe, were his health issue. He cannot remember which heel it was.)
I read somewhere that at the same time he was claiming this heel spur thing as a reason to avoid service, he was distinguishing himself at his university in several different sports. Is that true? I mean, goodness knows there's enough to hold him in contempt for even if it's not, but if it is true it should be utterly damning (but in the current climate probably isn't, just like nothing else seems to be). Or, trying to look at it charitably, could that be how he got the heel spur in the first place?
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Stumbling in the Master's footsteps as best I can.
Posts: 492 | From: England | Registered: Jun 2004
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
I cannot imagine. However, at that period, the scions of the well-off were mysteriously well able to avoid conscription, if necessary by hiring doctors to dig up obscure ailments for them to be disqualified by. I am assuming that Trump was one of this cohort. In other words, his ailment may have been nearly completely phantasmal.
The other solution (George W. Bush did this) was to find a safe slot stateside in the National Guard. This was most easily achieved if your dad knew somebody.
It is noticeable that persons who were able to evade military duty like this are particularly anxious to have wars and send in the troops, and will wrap themselves in the flag at every possible opportunity. (You can google for images of George W. and his 'Mission Accomplished' banner.) Hence the term for them, 'chicken hawks.'
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Gramps49
Shipmate
# 16378
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Posted
The early votes are starting to come in. Here in
Washington State, all ballots will be arriving in the mail shortly. Our state is a mail in state. Of course, we are a very blue state. But there are always some local initiatives that will garner quite a few votes. Two I am following are a Carbon Tax system, and a initiative to close loopholes in the gun registration system. I think the carbon tax proposal will fail, but the gun control issue will pass.
Posts: 2193 | From: Pullman WA | Registered: Apr 2011
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:
The early votes are starting to come in. Here in
Washington State, all ballots will be arriving in the mail shortly. Our state is a mail in state. Of course, we are a very blue state. But there are always some local initiatives that will garner quite a few votes. Two I am following are a Carbon Tax system, and a initiative to close loopholes in the gun registration system. I think the carbon tax proposal will fail, but the gun control issue will pass.
Surely the figures on postal votes are kept under wraps until the main count? They are here. One local candidate only just escaped prosecution a few years ago for hinting publicly that the figures looked as though they were in her favour.
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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Carex
Shipmate
# 9643
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Posted
Probably another week or two before we get our ballots here in Oregon. I've seen very few yard signs, and most of those are for the local council, and more bumper stickers left over from previous years than for 2016.
IIRC the ballots are scanned and placed in bundles before election night. If there is a question, or a ballot is replaced, the new ballot is replaced in the stack and the whole stack is recounted. The counts for each stack aren't official until the polls close, as voters can show up at the County Clerk's office and vote a ballot in person that replaces the mail-in ballot.
(I don't fully understand the details of how they keep track of the ballots - I know there is a serial number on each paper, but I don't know how that is tracked.)
If there are any issues with the counting equipment the paper ballots can be recounted, by machine or by hand. I've been told that the biggest problem they have with reading the ballots is due to coffee stains.
By keeping the results for separate bundles, that makes it more difficult to get a sense of how the overall results are trending prior to the actual election night when they are all added together. But I believe the records regarding which ballots have been received are publicly accessible, so it may be possible to get a sense of relative turnout, but not specifically how the people were voting.
Posts: 1425 | Registered: Jun 2005
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Surely the figures on postal votes are kept under wraps until the main count? They are here. One local candidate only just escaped prosecution a few years ago for hinting publicly that the figures looked as though they were in her favour.
Like everything else in the U.S., it depends on what state you're living in. No state tabulates results prior to Election Day, but they do keep a count of how many ballots are received, for obvious reasons. Some include more information, like this info from North Carolina (an actual 'battleground state'):
quote:
Registered Democrats continue to lead in the accepted ballots numbers, and are over-performing their 2012 same-day comparison numbers, at 129 percent of where they were in accepted ballots on the same day from four years ago. Registered unaffiliated voters are 128 percent of their same-day accepted ballots, and registered Republicans are 66 percent of where they were four years ago on the same day. Overall, the total returned and accepted mail-in ballots are at 96 percent of where they were on the same day in 2012.
So we have public information on number of mail-in ballots accepted in North Carolina and the party registration of the voters who cast those ballots. While it gives you a good hint, party registration isn't the same as an actual vote tabulation. There's no guarantee that someone who is a registered Republican is actually casting his ballot for Donald Trump, nor will all registered Democrats vote for Hillary Clinton.
Though this turnout suggests the disparate nature of the two candidate's ground games. Mail in ballots from registered Democrats are up by 30% from 2012 and those from registered Republicans are down by 30%.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Watching the VP debate. The woman moderator is much better than Lester Holt was in the presidential debate. She's prepared, has good questions, carefully goes over her notes, tries to keep the guys in line, and sometimes succeeds.
Personality wise, I think the VP candidates should switch places--Pence seems more suited to Hillary, in his manner, and Kaine to Trump.
I confess I dislike Kaine, and not just tonight. IMHO, he always seems a bit unhinged. That gets in the way of my really listening to what he has to say.
Both of them seem to be saying the expected things. I've heard comments in the news that the Veep debate is more about personality and manner, than policy. Well, more than an hour into the debate, and neither has said anything new or noteworthy. They've both behaved badly, over and over, mostly in running right over the other guy's comments.
If anybody should be counted a winner tonight, it's the moderator. I hope this helps her with her career.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Stercus Tauri
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# 16668
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Posted
My wife is registered to vote in New York State, and we were happy to be able to see from their secure website that her absentee ballot was recorded as received last week. I am fairly sure that Fat Donald was not the beneficiary of her vote.
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Thay haif said. Quhat say thay, Lat thame say (George Keith, 5th Earl Marischal)
Posts: 905 | From: On the traditional lands of the Six Nations. | Registered: Sep 2011
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
They count the number of people who vote at the pre-polls over here, which are different to postal votes. They don't actually look at the votes until after the votes cast on election day are counted. I'm talking Federal elections, of course, although the federal Australian Electoral Commission runs all elections here, even Union elections.
If that seems weird, Unions must be registered with whatever our federal industrial relations body is called now, and up until the 1990's had the right to negotiate terms and conditions of employment on behalf of employees in the industrial sector they covered. Honestly, we had the best industrial relations system in the world from federation right up until the bloody Keating Government pulled its finger out of the dyke. Now its gone to shit.
That industrial system is the reason why the coppers get nine weeks paid holiday leave (accumulating three types of entitlements) a year. It's to try and stop them getting so stressed out that they start shooting every bastard who looks at them weirdly... Of course they don't have to cope with the reality that there is a fair chance that everyone they pull over has a gun. I'd be packing my pants too.
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Tonight, on the "Late Show", Stephen Colbert had a skit where he talked with a supermarket employee. Ended with the employee saying "the thought of a Trump presidency just makes some people want to stock up on canned goods".
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
My husband has already shifted the aollocation of his investments in his 401K (our only retirement fund) so that the stock plunge after a Trump win won't tank us. If Hillary wins he can shift it all back. If this is possible for you you might consider it.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
I confess I dislike Kaine, and not just tonight. IMHO, he always seems a bit unhinged. That gets in the way of my really listening to what he has to say.
Both of them seem to be saying the expected things. I've heard comments in the news that the Veep debate is more about personality and manner, than policy. Well, more than an hour into the debate, and neither has said anything new or noteworthy. They've both behaved badly, over and over, mostly in running right over the other guy's comments.
The running mate's job isn't to shore up their own favorability rating, it's to defend their chief and attack the top of the opposing ticket. Tim Kaine did very well by that metric, while Mike Pence did not. Or as one tweeter observed:
quote:
Tim Kaine is running for Vice President in 2016. Mike Pence is running for president in 2020.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
I live in Virginia, the state that Tim Kaine was governor of. He is notably popular here, and was an excellent governor. Admittedly this is not the most difficult state in the union to manage (Louisiana, Mississippi, take a bow) but it is not nothing. The only reason he could not continue in the office is the state law that limits governors to only one term. It is certainly his good record here that inspired Clinton to take him on as veep.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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sabine
Shipmate
# 3861
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Personality wise, I think the VP candidates should switch places--Pence seems more suited to Hillary, in his manner, and Kaine to Trump.
Pence is my governor ![[Projectile]](graemlins/puke2.gif) He's made a regular practice here of denying reality. Denial (even as a wing-man to a person who can't filter himself) is part of a personality. Unless Clinton needs the services of someone who will use a polite tone to act like a child caught near the broken window with a baseball in his hand, Pence is not her man.
sabine
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"Hunger looks like the man that hunger is killing." Eduardo Galeano
Posts: 5887 | From: the US Heartland | Registered: Dec 2002
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Re the Veep debate, IMO Croesos has it right. Mind you, it is pretty hard to defend your chief when your chief is Trump, who is capable of saying (or tweeting) six indefensible things before breakfast.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Re the Veep debate, IMO Croesos has it right. Mind you, it is pretty hard to defend your chief when your chief is Trump, who is capable of saying (or tweeting) six indefensible things before breakfast.
What's notable is Pence's complaints about an "insult driven campaign" were almost all in response to Kaine accurately quoting things Donald Trump has said. One of the problems of blanket denials in the Age of Twitter is that there's a very quick turn-around time on pairing Pence saying "Donald Trump never said that" with a video of Donald Trump saying that.
At least the internet got a new meme out of the veep debate.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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