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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Barnabas--
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
God save the Queen. With a bit of human help. And in the process, save the USA from a lot of grief and embarrassment.
Is there a plot afoot to bring us wild colonials back into the fold? ![[Biased]](wink.gif) Don't think it would work. But if you could persuade the micronation of Sealand to put Trump on their enchanting oil rig, we'd be ever so grateful.
As to the earlier comment about Trump meeting Herself: she should definitely bring the corgis. ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
I think 1776 was a Good Thing! And I'm hoping the Donald is heading for a different kind of exile, courtesy of the voters.
The trouble with corgi dogs is their legs are too short for effective biting, (of the kind the Donald deserves.)
(Xpost with la vie en rouge)
[ 12. October 2016, 10:40: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Gee D
Shipmate
# 13815
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I have this gruesome image of President Trump meeting our Queen. And the Queen reminding him that she is well over 35 ...
No, it must not happen. If in any doubt, she should be saved from any such encounter. That kindness would be appreciated.
HM has entertained the Ceascescus at the Palace, given them dinner, bed and breakfast as well. And others as well, Nixon and his family in the days when Dickie and Pat were doing their level best to marry the PoW to their daughter (or vice versa, they were not fussed which way around it went), the Reagans and a host of others. She would do that if she were so advised, but never, ever, let on her true feelings beyond an extremely limited range.
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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican
Posts: 7028 | From: Warrawee NSW Australia | Registered: Jun 2008
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Sure, but she's 90 now. And the Duke is 95. A little bit of mercy would be in order.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Barnabas--
The corgis could reach his ankles, and his very expensive shoes. They could also employ their nether ends to good avail...
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J.K. Rowling Sent the Perfect Tweets During the Second Presidential Debate. (Popsugar)
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
Old guy candidate gets numbers mixed up just proves that maybe old people running for this office isn't such a good idea.
Obama was pretty much the perfect age to become President.
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Hedgehog
Ship's Shortstop
# 14125
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
Donald Trump tells supporters to vote on November 28:
quote:
During a campaign event Tuesday night, Donald Trump urged his supporters to vote on November 28. "Go and register. Make sure you get out and vote November 28," the GOP presidential nominee said in Panama City, Florida. (Election Day is November 8. )
![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)
Aha! Just another example of how the Democrats are rigging the election against Trump! They deliberately moved election day just to fool Trump supporters!
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"We must regain the conviction that we need one another, that we have a shared responsibility for others and the world, and that being good and decent are worth it."--Pope Francis, Laudato Si'
Posts: 2740 | From: Delaware, USA | Registered: Sep 2008
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Which, I think, is a real problem with democracy. No amount of blaming Green voters for the election of GW Bush changes the fact that there is a relatively large proportion of the population of the US who do not want to vote Dem or GOP but are being pushed into voting for the least-worst candidate - who then is very likely to push forwards a platform based on that shaky mandate which isn't what they stand for and isn't why they voted for them.
Then they should have voted in the primary. The presidential election cycle is not just one election.
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
As for my vote, I live in a blue state. Hell will freeze over before Trump wins in California. Thanks to the electoral college my refusal to vote for Clinton won't make a bit of difference.
Brexit.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I keep chatting to people on the left who seem to find Clinton so awful, that they refuse to vote for her. However, voting for the lesser evil is quite common in elections, isn't it? I'm not mad on Sadiq Khan in London, but I voted for him as mayor, as the other guy was so ghastly.
It just sounds so purist otherwise.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Prester John
Shipmate
# 5502
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
Prester John, even though California is very likely to vote for Clinton, will you be turning up to vote in the other elections being run that day?
Yes. No matter how discouraged I get I still show up. I've only missed two special, non-general elections in my life. California always has a ton of ballot measures.
Posts: 884 | From: SF Bay Area | Registered: Feb 2004
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
And just like magic, yesterday's post bemoaning the lack of recent polling in Utah is answered by a poll of likely voters in Utah showing that Donald Trump is running dead even with Hillary Clinton in the Beehive State and that if all the Utahns who say they're voting for a third party candidate could unite behind one person that person would carry the state.
I had never heard of Y2 Analytics before this poll. Apparently they're a Utah-based polling and data analysis company.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I keep chatting to people on the left who seem to find Clinton so awful, that they refuse to vote for her. However, voting for the lesser evil is quite common in elections, isn't it?
It's all you can do. No candidate is pure gold. Those who decry voting for the lesser evil are either new voters or hopelessly goggle-eyed.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Prester John
Shipmate
# 5502
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Posted
quote:
Brexit.
![[Confused]](confused.gif) Are you saying CA should leave the Union or that there is a possibility that CA will turn red this election cycle and I should vote for Clinton?
Posts: 884 | From: SF Bay Area | Registered: Feb 2004
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
quote:
Brexit.
Are you saying CA should leave the Union or that there is a possibility that CA will turn red this election cycle and I should vote for Clinton?
I'm saying that thinking "I can vote against it and there will still be enough 'yea' votes that it won't matter" is a dangerous way to think, as demonstrated by Brexit. If enough people take this attitude, then there won't be enough 'yea' votes, and the protest-voters (or protest-non-voters) will win the day.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
From where I'm sitting, he's saying what I'm saying, which is that getting out and voting is important, in the long term as well as in the short term, even if you think the result is a foregone conclusion, if only to exercise your democratic rights.
It's failure to be involved in the democratic process at all levels on an ongoing basis that leads to nightmares like Brexit.
[x-post]
[ 12. October 2016, 13:33: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
That too.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Prester John
Shipmate
# 5502
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
From where I'm sitting, he's saying what I'm saying, which is that getting out and voting is important, in the long term as well as in the short term, even if you think the result is a foregone conclusion, if only to exercise your democratic rights.
It's failure to be involved in the democratic process at all levels on an ongoing basis that leads to nightmares like Brexit.
[x-post]
I do go out and vote, after researching the issues, reading the ballot measures and watching the primary and general election debates. I just don't always choose one of the two main candidates.
Posts: 884 | From: SF Bay Area | Registered: Feb 2004
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
Donald Trump tells supporters to vote on November 28:
quote:
During a campaign event Tuesday night, Donald Trump urged his supporters to vote on November 28. "Go and register. Make sure you get out and vote November 28," the GOP presidential nominee said in Panama City, Florida. (Election Day is November 8. )
If they insist upon voting on Nov. 28, I think we should let them.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
I do go out and vote, after researching the issues, reading the ballot measures and watching the primary and general election debates. I just don't always choose one of the two main candidates.
Well then all well and good.
But there is sometimes the case for tactical voting where one throws one's lot in with one candidate to ensure defeat of an absolutely toxic candidate. How and when this might arise depends on the electoral system in place.
(I spent some time persuading my parents to vote, whereupon they went and voted the opposite way to me...).
[ 12. October 2016, 13:40: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
In a two party system like that in America, the time to pick a third party candidate is not at the voting booth, but a year or two prior.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
The British left/centre were scarred by this in the 80s. The election of 1983: Tories 13 million votes, Labour 8 million, SDP/liberal 7 million. Seats in Parliament: Tories about 400, Labour 200, SDP 23.
But you can reverse this as well, in relation to Blair, who got a minority of votes.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
The Brexit result confounded the pollsters. The expected result was 52℅-48℅ in favour of Remain, whereas the outcome was the reverse of that. Afterwards, a lot of people regretted not voting, or voting the way they did, because they thought it was a foregone conclusion. I think the argument is that whatever the pollsters may say, vote as though your vote might count, because you never know for sure. So far as CA is concerned, however, the pragmatist in me says you're right not to be that bothered.
I used to live in a constituency about which it was said that if the Archangel Gabriel stood as a Tory and a donkey as Labour, the donkey would have a massive majority. It's been Labour since the 1926 General Strike. Still is. Sometimes results are foregone conclusions.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
In a two party system like that in America, the time to pick a third party candidate is not at the voting booth, but a year or two prior.
tangent/
We have the situation in France where Emmanuel Macron looks like he might run for president as an independent.
To me this looks increasingly like a test run for a more credible candidacy in 2022. All he is likely to achieve in the first round of the 2017 election is to split the left and centre vote, thus further ensuring the second round is between Marine Le Pen and whoever wins the right-wing primaries.
Despite that risk, I'm considering voting for him in the first round to help send a message that "we need a new political movement ready for 2022".
/tangent
[ 12. October 2016, 13:53: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Al Gore campaigned with Clinton yesterday. He declared himself the poster child for 'Every vote counts.'
My son, the political maven, points out that there is a good deal more on the ballot than just the presidential race -- there are lesser officials, referendums, and so on. In California these amount to quite a thick pile. You should vote, no matter where you are.
Sorry to keep on using the POST, but it is my local paper and its bailiwick is political coverage. This one is unsurprising, the Tiny Fingered One's penchant for dropping into beauty contest dressing rooms to ogle the naked contestants. He said, "I’m allowed to go in because I’m the owner of the pageant. And therefore I’m inspecting it."
And, while not surprising, this is unusual: the candidate parroting Russian propaganda.
Thank the Lord for the videotape. If an author made this stuff up -- if she put it into a novel -- her editor would say, kindly, "Hon, don't you think this is a little over the top? Nobody'll believe it."
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
As I've said before, there's nowhere for House of Cards to go after this.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Prester John
Shipmate
# 5502
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
In a two party system like that in America, the time to pick a third party candidate is not at the voting booth, but a year or two prior.
Unless you live in a state that has an open primary the only time that you can vote for a third party candidate versus the Dem/Repub candidate is at the voting booth.
Posts: 884 | From: SF Bay Area | Registered: Feb 2004
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Og, King of Bashan
Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
As for my vote, I live in a blue state. Hell will freeze over before Trump wins in California. Thanks to the electoral college my refusal to vote for Clinton won't make a bit of difference.
Brexit.
Here's a thought to keep you up at night.
If Clinton's 20% polling lead in California (Real Clear Politics, four way election,) is a Brexit type illusion, she's in a heap of trouble. If Trump has enough sleeper voters to make California close, imagine what he will do in states where identical polling methods show a close race. He'd be looking at a 1984 / 1964 kind of night. Maybe she wins Vermont and Massachusetts.
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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy
Posts: 3259 | From: Denver, Colorado, USA | Registered: May 2005
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Despite that risk, I'm considering voting for him in the first round to help send a message that "we need a new political movement ready for 2022".
France is a multi-party system, the US isn't.
There doesn't seem to be a path from third place to president in the US.
The current US third-party candidates only get airtime or interest as a result of voter dissatisfaction with the two main candidates. Nothing I've read has indicated they are striking any chords with voters otherwise.
This article indicates that the constitution makes a multi-party system unlikely and that where a third party has won, they become one of the two majors by displacement.
From my observation, none of the third party candidates has what it takes to do that.
IMO, none of the current third party candidates will ever achieve a higher office than they already have.
Reiterating, in the US, an outsider needs to create their presence early. Bernie Sanders did that and still lost. Also rans, who are only noticed because Trump is so truly terrible, will fade 5 minutes after results are announced.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
In a two party system like that in America, the time to pick a third party candidate is not at the voting booth, but a year or two prior.
Unless you live in a state that has an open primary the only time that you can vote for a third party candidate versus the Dem/Repub candidate is at the voting booth.
What I'm saying is for a third-party candidate to be viable, they need to raise awareness and support well before the election. They need to dominate attention. That is not something one could say about any of the three running now.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by Prester John:
As for my vote, I live in a blue state. Hell will freeze over before Trump wins in California. Thanks to the electoral college my refusal to vote for Clinton won't make a bit of difference.
Brexit.
Here's a thought to keep you up at night.
If Clinton's 20% polling lead in California (Real Clear Politics, four way election,) is a Brexit type illusion, she's in a heap of trouble. If Trump has enough sleeper voters to make California close, imagine what he will do in states where identical polling methods show a close race. He'd be looking at a 1984 / 1964 kind of night. Maybe she wins Vermont and Massachusetts.
The polls weren't *that* far off over Brexit. If the pollsters have called California wrong then I think no-one will ever trust an opinion poll ever again. With that margin of error you might as well have Mystic Meg as an election pundit based on the moon moving into Scorpio or whatever.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
The flip side of my previous link: Polling that analyzes why men like Trump.
Others have remarked upon how, after all the fuss and feathers, the election is finally breaking on gender lines. The GOP has to put a rubber band around its head and snap out of it. If they become the party of angry older white men, they can never win another election again.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
What I'm saying is for a third-party candidate to be viable, they need to raise awareness and support well before the election. They need to dominate attention. That is not something one could say about any of the three running now.
The American system is really built for the existence of exactly two major parties. It's the inevitable outcome of the winner-take-all, majority rule system. There are some parallels to coalition-building in parliamentary systems, except that in the U.S. the coalitions are built ex ante instead of ex post. The two major parties are not ideological entities, like a lot of European parties (though the Republicans have moved a good distance towards enforced ideological purity lately), but rather coalitions of different interest groups. The goal is to collect the allegiance of enough interest groups to form a majority without including enough contradictory interests that the party is stymied by internal divisions.
One way of looking at voting (and the correct way, in my view) is to regard it as an instrumental activity: you cast your ballot in order to advance certain policy objectives. Because American political parties are, as previously mentioned, coalitions of several different interest groups, this may mean that other objectives about which you care little (or may slightly oppose) may also be advanced at the same time. That's how politics works. In order to achieve majority support for your policy preferences you often have to support the policy preferences of other people which aren't any more important to you than your goals are to them. The other option is to wait until a majority of the voting public agrees with you about everything.
The other way of approaching voting, which has become increasingly popular lately, is to view it exclusively as a self-validating consumer choice where you expect to be offered an artisanal candidate custom fitted to match every single one of your political preferences. (I like the 'Obama' model, but does it come in a different color? ) This view seems to be more about maintaining some narcissistic view of personal purity rather than achieving any kind of policy outcome. It's notable (though not really unexpected) that this view is most common about those who will be least affected by bad policy outcomes.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
The flip side of my previous link: Polling that analyzes why men like Trump.
Well, white men at least. Trump's support among non-white men is abysmal.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Oh, for sure. I am impressed with those black districts in which the candidate has zero support. None! And that's with a plus or minus three in the arithmetic!
This is from Salon, a discussion of Trump as the epitome of white privilege. It is impossible to imagine a black or female candidate doing any of the things he has done with impunity.
And a further refinement on the dressing room tale, the Teen USA pageant involved girls aged 15-19. Trump supporters suggest that they are in collusion.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
Alpha Male Primate
I'm very sorry that the US has had Nigel Farage* imposed on you with his stupid ideas that a gorilla is a good role model for a human leader. Some other sites have picked up on that hair colour to identify Trump with another one of our near relatives.
*Often compared with a character from Wind in the Willows. Poop! Poop! Always someone else's horizon!
[ 12. October 2016, 16:44: Message edited by: Penny S ]
Posts: 5833 | Registered: May 2009
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Oh, for sure. I am impressed with those black districts in which the candidate has zero support. None! And that's with a plus or minus three in the arithmetic!
This is from Salon, a discussion of Trump as the epitome of white privilege. It is impossible to imagine a black or female candidate doing any of the things he has done with impunity.
And a further refinement on the dressing room tale, the Teen USA pageant involved girls aged 15-19. Trump supporters suggest that they are in collusion.
I wonder how long the press will keep finding this stuff out. If Trump wins, I suspect, journalists will be encouraged to spike interesting stories of this nature. If he loses, and I were a betting man, I'd put a tenner on his being in jail by the time the 2020 election comes around.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Over in the NYT conservative pundit Ross Douthat mourns that all the GOP compromises have gone for naught. They got into bed with Trump and yeah, they got screwed. Someone else, somewhere, pointed out that there is nobody -- no business, no party, no woman, no man -- who has ever worked with Trump and not lived to regret it.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
I wonder how long the press will keep finding this stuff out.
More relevantly, it kind of begs the question of what the opposition research teams for all the other Republican primary candidates were doing in the fall of 2015?
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
I wonder how long the press will keep finding this stuff out.
More relevantly, it kind of begs the question of what the opposition research teams for all the other Republican primary candidates were doing in the fall of 2015?
I bet there are a lot of awkward silences at Bush family gatherings right now.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28
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Posted
The series Law and Order: SVU, which draws it's episode subject matter from current events, is having an episode on a political candidate that sounds an awful lot like Trump. Wonder what effect that will have on the polling, if any.
Link to CNN article here.
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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!
Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
File under priceless.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Laddish son Eric Trump claims they have the momentum and victory is near. Unfortunately the poll map he uses is the one from Nate Silver's site, that shows the results if no women vote at all. Or, as the headline says, he's basically wrong about everything.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
You Yanks won't remember the Brexit vote. It even stunned the people campaigning for it. Especially those that didn't mean it.
He can win.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Laddish son Eric Trump claims they have the momentum and victory is near. Unfortunately the poll map he uses is the one from Nate Silver's site, that shows the results if no women vote at all. Or, as the headline says, he's basically wrong about everything.
Now that you mention it, the Trump campaign makes a lot more sense if you simply assume that no one on Team Trump knows that the Nineteenth Amendment has been ratified.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
I wonder how long the press will keep finding this stuff out.
More relevantly, it kind of begs the question of what the opposition research teams for all the other Republican primary candidates were doing in the fall of 2015?
I bet there are a lot of awkward silences at Bush family gatherings right now.
Apart from Billy, there is a darn good chance they will be happy enough. Jeb is looking mighty electable in 2020 - whether he actually gets nominated is another issue of course but there is some doubt that the Trump primary supporters are going to stick around for anybody else.
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
You Yanks won't remember the Brexit vote. It even stunned the people campaigning for it. Especially those that didn't mean it.
He can win.
Big difference between polling on one question without parties across one country vs. polling multiple states who contribute to a win through the electoral college system.
And that is also forgetting the ground game GOTV issues Trump has.
He's toast.
[ 12. October 2016, 18:32: Message edited by: Og: Thread Killer ]
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
You Yanks won't remember the Brexit vote. It even stunned the people campaigning for it. Especially those that didn't mean it.
He can win.
Any major party presidential nominee has a non-trivial chance of victory. Trump's odds don't look good though. He's about where McCain was in at this point in 2008, and in a much worse position than either Romney in 2012 or Kerry in 2004. So yes, we're not talking about a statistical impossibility, but at present a Trump presidency seems about as likely as losing at Russian roulette. Whether you consider 1-in-6 odds to be 'low' or 'way too high' is a matter of how catastrophic you regard the results of that 1-in-6 chance.
[ 12. October 2016, 18:50: Message edited by: Crœsos ]
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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