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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Thanks once again to Croesos for the excellent summary. This is a kind of supplement.
Croesos is quite right about Pennsylvania not being a toss-up state. If we give that to Clinton (5-6% popular vote lead, c 84% probability) and give all the other RCP toss-up states to Trump, Clinton still wins the Electoral College by 272-266. And in the other toss-up states (Pennsylvania apart), Clinton leads narrowly in Florida, North Carolina and Maine (CD2), Trump narrowly in Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, more comfortably in Georgia and Texas. Trump has his work cut out to win all of the states in which Clinton is currently leading. As usual Florida is close.
And if we look at Trump's chances in the RCP Clinton-leaning states, in all of them the average Clinton lead in the polls is 6% or more. As things stand, his chances of getting any one of those don't look very good.
But ...
What we don't know yet is the "Comey" effect, particularly in the toss up states. That will I guess come through in the polls early next week.
For Trump to win, he has to gain sufficient voters from Clinton and Johnson to get all the RCP toss up states (apart from Pennsylvania) plus one other state from the Clinton-leaning category. He has to close gaps rapidly now to get the necessary Electoral College gains.
[ 29. October 2016, 22:18: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Misc.:
--Croesos and several others: Thanks for the explanations re various Constitutional stuff, esp. treason and malfeasance. FWIW: I did say that I didn't know if shutting down the Supreme Court would legally be treason, "but, ethically and common sense-ically, it's damn close".
![[Biased]](wink.gif)
--HCH asked "Does this remind people of the end of the Roman republic?"
If so, does that mean we all get to go to the countryside and be Pagans? (IIRC my very rusty Latin: as things were falling apart, Romans who could left town and became pagani, country-dwellers, and kept the old ways.)
![[Cool]](cool.gif)
--LC:
quote:
Originally posted by Lamb Chopped:
But the next election is never more than two years away (in the case of the House and 1/3 of the Senate on a rolling basis) and cynically speaking, legislators are very very unlikely to do anything that is apt to cost them re-election. I'm not too fussed about this weakness in the Constitution. Things will get handled though it may take longer than it ought.
But there's the day-to-day stuff to do, and small stuff preventing gov't shutdowns and keeping benefits payments going.
I know that Congressional gridlock is sometimes a good thing, because it keeps them from implementing some of their worse ideas. But it also keeps them from doing good things.
When Congress does something bad, or doesn't do something good, it can be a long time--if ever--before it gets fixed.
--Gramps:
quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:
quote:
Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort.
When you have a GOP candidate suggesting revolution, you hare getting very close.
This.
--jedijudy: Maybe your brother is drawn to conspiracy theories partly *because of* his brilliance? He's used to looking at things differently from most people. YMMV.
--Og:
quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Who benefits from that?
The TV news networks, for one.
Ever see the film "Network"?
![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Teekeey Misha:
...
I find this whole election thing increasingly scary. I'm genuinely frightened that, given the UK's demonstrable propensity to vote insanely in the EU referendum, the US might actually do the inconceivable and elect that ghastly man as President. I can quite understand people not wanting to vote for Mrs Clinton - except when the only real alternative seems to be to vote for that man. If I had a vote in the States, I'd vote for Satan rather than that man, because the outcome would have to be better. Why do people not seem to see how utterly repugnant, inept, dishonest, disreputable and despicable he is?
I just don't get it. Why has that man's every appearance in public (or, frankly, in private) not convinced people that he should not ever be allowed anywhere near the tack room in which are stored the reins of power when they're not actually in use, let alone to actually wield them?
Many of his supporters don't see how "utterly repugnant, inept, dishonest, disreputable and despicable" Trump is because he is mirroring them. They don't see him as those things, because they see him as a true American Patriot. Just as there is a rump of Englishmen who want to restore the Land of Hope and Glory, so there is a rump, a very large rump (but not large enough if the polls are right), of Americans who want to have their perceived needs catered for before any other American. They want women in their place, blacks in their place, and Hispanics and Asians out.
There ought be no compromise with these people. Their concerns are not legitimate. They should be disarmed as soon as possible. But they are not breeding very fast, so time and tide should take care of them, even if Trump wins this year.
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Teekeey Misha:
[Aside]
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Inviting the other poster to fill in the blanks in a sentence.../hosting
If one observes that there are blanks in a sentence, is it not rather presumptuous to suggest one has been "invited" to fill them?
[/Aside]
That would be a great question to ask in the Styx.
K.A.
Admin
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
It was good of Simontoad to tell us of the rump. There are many alternate words for rump, that match the obscenity. It could be a third of your population who support him. That is exceedingly dangerous.
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
I meant rump to mean a small or unimportant remnant of something much larger.
Arse could also apply, but it wasn't my intention to be crude, on this occasion. Granted, it is often my intention to be crude, so the interpretation is excusable.
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
Just as there is a rump of Englishmen who want to restore the Land of Hope and Glory, so there is a rump, a very large rump (but not large enough if the polls are right), of Americans who want to have their perceived needs catered for before any other American. They want women in their place, blacks in their place, and Hispanics and Asians out.
There ought be no compromise with these people. Their concerns are not legitimate. They should be disarmed as soon as possible. But they are not breeding very fast, so time and tide should take care of them, even if Trump wins this year.
While there are certainly some real jerks in the pro-Trump ranks, you are completely missing the pain felt by many people who have been fucked over for decades.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Alwyn
Shipmate
# 4380
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Posted
I can see that people who live in run-down homes, in communities where decent work is hard to find, feel angry and betrayed by privileged political leaders.
As I see it, this anger reflects a real problem: globalised capitalism leaves people behind, while showing them (via TV and the web) images of a wealthy lifestyle they don't have. I don't think that the potential force of this anger should be underestimated. In 1989, the contrast between austerity in Communist states and the Western lifestyle they could see on TV could have been a factor in political revolutions.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting revolution in the US, nor am I saying that Mr Trump would be the better choice. The latest poll on Real Clear Politics shows Mr Trump ahead by 2. I wonder if this is an outlier, or a sign of things to come?
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Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
Posts: 849 | From: UK | Registered: Apr 2003
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
A good article.
"Trumpism appeals to the worst in people, cynically exploiting and fanning the anger, grievances and prejudices of the economically disadvantaged, the embittered, uneducated and plain ignorant. It appeals to base instincts, to lowest common denominators. Its is political dumbing down writ large. It is underpinned by a pervasive and comprehensible insecurity, engendered across the west by post-2008 economic injustice and social division, the growing gulf between rich and poor and incompetent, unfeeling or corrupt governance."
"For good or bad, this clock cannot be turned back. Closed borders and closed minds, crude nationalism, trade barriers, xenophobia, religious, racial and sexual discrimination – these are old mistakes and old hatreds that, while still in evidence everywhere, belong to times past. The world is moving forward, not back. In the end, Trumpism and all its ghastly incarnations, dwelling in fear and darkness, will, like Trump himself, be exorcised."
[fixed code so that I could read the linked article]
[ 30. October 2016, 09:02: Message edited by: Marvin the Martian ]
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Robert Armin
All licens'd fool
# 182
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Posted
And now it seems the emails didn't even come from Hillary's server. So, are they relevant in any way?
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Keeping fit was an obsession with Fr Moity .... He did chin ups in the vestry, calisthenics in the pulpit, and had developed a series of Tai-Chi exercises to correspond with ritual movements of the Mass. The Antipope Robert Rankin
Posts: 8927 | From: In the pack | Registered: May 2001
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
People were declaring the email thing a dead dog at about 9:15 AM PST, but that's not gonna make anyone shut up about it.
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
The latest poll on Real Clear Politics shows Mr Trump ahead by 2. I wonder if this is an outlier, or a sign of things to come?
538's analysis of pollsters and latest list of National Polls suggests that it is an outlier. The pollster's results invariably lean towards the GOP. 538 takes account of such factors, based on previous performance and poll methodology. RCP doesn't.
The dates of the survey suggest it was completed pre-Comey.
As more information comes out about the basis of the Comey letter to House Committee Chairpersons, it seems unlikely that it will hurt HC very much at all. What looks to be happening is that support for Gary Johnson is melting away, and Trump seems to be picking up most of it. If it continues, that trend will narrow the gaps, particularly in the battleground states.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Politically romanlion is winning here hands down.
Because Clinton is losing hands down.
...
Ur assuming people are still listening.
True. I hope not. I hope that the psephological reality is as WYSIWYG as Croesos and Baranabas62 describe.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Given the horrible prospect of a Trump presidency, and not just for the US, odds of 10 to 1 against a win by him would still leave plenty of room for worry.
What the psephologists are saying is "shorter than that, probably getting shorter".
What I'm saying is there is still plenty of room for the nightmare. My wife asked me " If it came to it where would we go in a post-Brexit, President-Trump world?". I started singing an old song
"O sisters let's go down
Let's go down, come on down
O sisters let's go down
Down in the river to pray
O brothers let's go down
Let's go down, come on down
Come on brothers, let's go down
Down in the river to pray"
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
Thing is, all through this trump episode it has been said many Americans have been closeted in their support of him. This being said, there is every reason believe people have not been truthful with pollsters and that this race is by no means foregone conclusion.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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SusanDoris
Incurable Optimist
# 12618
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Posted
There was an interview (on BBC Radio 4 onFriday last week) with Tony Schwarz which gave a very worrying picture of Trump.
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I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Posts: 3083 | From: UK | Registered: May 2007
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Thing is, all through this trump episode it has been said many Americans have been closeted in their support of him. This being said, there is every reason believe people have not been truthful with pollsters and that this race is by no means foregone conclusion.
That cuts both ways, though. I'm sure there will be right wingers who will stealthily vote blue.
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
We Brits get a bit confuddled with the Blue/Red being the other way round than it is here.
Blue = Right and Red = Left.
Why can't we all just be pink an happy.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Thing is, all through this trump episode it has been said many Americans have been closeted in their support of him. This being said, there is every reason believe people have not been truthful with pollsters and that this race is by no means foregone conclusion.
That cuts both ways, though. I'm sure there will be right wingers who will stealthily vote blue.
It remains to be seen how many Republican women will, in the privacy of the voting booth, vote for Clinton, but
some of them certainly will.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Thing is, all through this trump episode it has been said many Americans have been closeted in their support of him. This being said, there is every reason believe people have not been truthful with pollsters and that this race is by no means foregone conclusion.
Absolutely rolyn. Although the 538 analyses takes all of this in to account, we are in unprecedented times.
And it's not 1:10 Barnabas62, it's 1:7 > 1:6
RuthW, exactly, a Clinton win isn't the Kingdom come for at least the bottom half of the working class. She hasn't got the balls to empower them by taxing wealth.
And somewhere up above the asinine inference was drawn that empowering Trump's working poor means disempowering all other minorities (blacks, women, Hispanics) or any minority apart from the rich.
Trump would and should win hands down if he guaranteed achieving social justice without any scapegoats.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by SusanDoris:
There was an interview (on BBC Radio 4 onFriday last week) with Tony Schwarz which gave a very worrying picture of Trump.
welcome to the party, Tony!
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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner
Posts: 11242 | From: a small canyon overlooking the city | Registered: Jan 2008
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Is it really possible that the FBI could swing this for Trump? No doubt the conspiracy theorists are hard at work, since no details were given. That suits Trump all right, since he thrives in an absence of facts. I can't believe this is happening.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Og, King of Bashan
Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562
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Posted
As I said above, most folks already voting for Clinton have already processed the email story, and I can't see too many changing their minds now.
Maybe some Republicans who were sitting out or voting for Johnson will suddenly jump on the Trump train in hopes of embarrassing Clinton, but I can't imagine that will be enough to make a difference.
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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy
Posts: 3259 | From: Denver, Colorado, USA | Registered: May 2005
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
OK, I will not panic, I will not panic ...
I just remember Brexit night. We did panic. We still do.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
The latest poll on Real Clear Politics shows Mr Trump ahead by 2. I wonder if this is an outlier, or a sign of things to come?
The LA Times poll, which I'm guessing is the one you're referring to, has been a consistent outlier in this year's polling, usually in Trump's favor. Their methodology is a bit different than most polls and some of the potential problems with it are highlighted in this New York Times article. (Only click through if you're a Times subscriber or are willing to use one of your ten monthly NYT clicks on this article.) We'll find out election night if the LA Times wrong or if everyone else is.
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
Thing is, all through this trump episode it has been said many Americans have been closeted in their support of him. This being said, there is every reason believe people have not been truthful with pollsters and that this race is by no means foregone conclusion.
Most of Trump's supporters are anything but shy about their support of him. On the other hand it's just as plausible that there are a significant number of women who will vote Clinton and don't want to say so in front of their Trump-supporting husbands/boyfriends. I guess that's another thing we'll find out the evening of November 8.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
OK, I will not panic, I will not panic ...
I just remember Brexit night. We did panic. We still do.
I went to bed, slept well and woke up to a shock.
I shall go to bed for this one too - but far less confidently.
A Trump presidency doesn't bear thinking about. Would he be able to carry out his threats if he got in or would there be too many checks and balances?
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
And it's not 1:10 Barnabas62, it's 1:7 > 1:6
Just an example. Today's polls show the truth of this remark from my post.
quote:
What the psephologists are saying is "shorter than that, probably getting shorter".
The probability of Clinton winning is down to 77%, the lead in the popular vote is down to 4.5%. At this early stage, from the most recent polls, at looks as though the Comey effect has reduced the deficit on the popular vote by about 1%. Florida, Nevada and N Carolina are looking very knife edged (about 1% lead for Clinton on the popular vote).
WYSIWYG, but it doesn't mean that it will be this way on November 8th.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
The probability of Clinton winning is down to 77%, the lead in the popular vote is down to 4.5%. At this early stage, from the most recent polls, at looks as though the Comey effect has reduced the deficit on the popular vote by about 1%. Florida, Nevada and N Carolina are looking very knife edged (about 1% lead for Clinton on the popular vote).
Well, 538 says 77%. The NYT still says 91% and Sam Wang says 97%. Only two polls include data from after the Comey letter, and none were taken exclusively during that period. So whatever fluctuation we're seeing in the polling predictors is not due to Comey.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
I don't think your problem in globalisation when it comes to economics. It is an unequal taxation system where some people and companies avoid taxation entirely. High income tax brackets thresholds are set far too high. And spend far less on military in support of corporations and in general.
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Robert Armin
All licens'd fool
# 182
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Posted
I know it will take ages before the winner actually becomes President, but when will we know the result?
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Keeping fit was an obsession with Fr Moity .... He did chin ups in the vestry, calisthenics in the pulpit, and had developed a series of Tai-Chi exercises to correspond with ritual movements of the Mass. The Antipope Robert Rankin
Posts: 8927 | From: In the pack | Registered: May 2001
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Firenze
Ordinary decent pagan
# 619
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
I know it will take ages before the winner actually becomes President, but when will we know the result?
Poling day is 8th November (unless you believe Trump, in which case it's the 28th).
So early doors on the 9th you'd think.
Posts: 17302 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
I know it will take ages before the winner actually becomes President, but when will we know the result?
Poling day is 8th November (unless you believe Trump, in which case it's the 28th).
So early doors on the 9th you'd think.
That's what we thought 16 years ago.
![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
I don't think your problem in globalisation when it comes to economics. It is an unequal taxation system where some people and companies avoid taxation entirely. High income tax brackets thresholds are set far too high. And spend far less on military in support of corporations and in general.
The white lower working class of America cannot compete with China or Mexico or India or anywhere. Wealth taxation and unionization are the answer, not protectionism.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
The probability of Clinton winning is down to 77%, the lead in the popular vote is down to 4.5%. At this early stage, from the most recent polls, at looks as though the Comey effect has reduced the deficit on the popular vote by about 1%. Florida, Nevada and N Carolina are looking very knife edged (about 1% lead for Clinton on the popular vote).
Well, 538 says 77%. The NYT still says 91% and Sam Wang says 97%. Only two polls include data from after the Comey letter, and none were taken exclusively during that period. So whatever fluctuation we're seeing in the polling predictors is not due to Comey.
Fair enough. I misread a Nate Silver Twitter. Nothing is really clear yet about the Comey effect. So far as other polls are concerned, I'm deferring to 538 at present because I think the methodology is better than other aggregate posters.
Clinton is handling the Comey thing very well. The departure from the DoJ normal standard is hard to defend.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
[QUOTE]Wealth taxation and unionization are the answer
If that were true, New York would be paradise...
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
I know it will take ages before the winner actually becomes President, but when will we know the result?
It depends. With Bush v Gore, we didn't know for weeks (and even then...). With McCain v Obama we knew the minute the polls closed on the West coast. Just depends on how close it is.
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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner
Posts: 11242 | From: a small canyon overlooking the city | Registered: Jan 2008
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
OK, I will not panic, I will not panic ...
I just remember Brexit night. We did panic. We still do.
I went to bed, slept well and woke up to a shock.
I went to bed and slept well having just heard Nigel Farage all but concede defeat. Waking up it was hard to believe my ears. ![[Votive]](graemlins/votive.gif)
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
I know it will take ages before the winner actually becomes President, but when will we know the result?
It depends. With Bush v Gore, we didn't know for weeks (and even then...). With McCain v Obama we knew the minute the polls closed on the West coast. Just depends on how close it is.
Election officials will start tabulating votes and reporting results as soon as the polls close in each state. It's possible we'll know the result fairly early, depending on a number of factors. Trump's plausible paths to victory are fairly narrow, so it's possible we could know fairly early depending on a number of factors.
There are three states that Trump needs to win: Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. Winning this 'Trump Trifecta' doesn't assure his victory but losing any one of them makes his defeat almost* certain. The polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (UCT -5) in Ohio and North Carolina. Polls close at 7:00 p.m. in Florida, but part of the state is in the Central Time Zone so results won't be reported there until 8:00 p.m. EST. If Trump loses one (or more) of these states we'll have a good idea of who the next president will be at that point, so the result could be known as early as sometime between 8:00 p.m. EST and 9:00 p.m. EST. If Trump manages to win all three, it will likely be a late night as we wait for returns from places like Iowa, Nevada, and Arizona with much later poll closing times.
All that assumes that there won't be some kind of breakdown or uncertain result like in 2000.
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*There would still be a few very low-probability paths to victory if Trump loses North Carolina, such as these two hypothesized by Nate Silver, but these would require a lot of things breaking just right for Trump.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
OK, I will not panic, I will not panic ...
I just remember Brexit night. We did panic. We still do.
I went to bed, slept well and woke up to a shock.
I went to bed and slept well having just heard Nigel Farage all but concede defeat. Waking up it was hard to believe my ears.
I doubt anybody is going to sleep well Nov. 8. I doubt anyone will sleep at all.
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
I'm afraid, very afraid, that my gutter instincts are right.
Oh, and anybody realised that Putin HAS to win in Aleppo against the now united Syrian opposition? Wonder where that carrier's going?
Sure hope that there won't be any US aircraft in those skies.
Because otherwise the US election could become irrelevant.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
[QUOTE]Wealth taxation and unionization are the answer
If that were true, New York would be paradise...
So protectionism IS the answer!
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Martin--
RuthW, exactly, a Clinton win isn't the Kingdom come for at least the bottom half of the working class. She hasn't got the balls to empower them by taxing wealth.
You mean like this?
"A fair tax system: Making sure the wealthy, Wall Street, and corporations pay their fair share in taxes. " (HC's official website) That also talks about tax relief, and using the money from taxes on the wealthy to invest in jobs, "debt-free college", etc.
Oh, and that would be "ovaries", not balls. And why don't we just skip the idea that a person's hormones and plumbing have anything to do with competence? Possible alternatives: "courage", "nerve", "daring","guts", "audacity".
quote:
Trump would and should win hands down if he guaranteed achieving social justice without any scapegoats.
~No.~
a) No one can legitimately guarantee that.
b) AFAICT, he doesn't care at all about social justice.
c) America's attempts at social justice have a bumpy, cyclical history. There's a start, then someone tears it down, then someone tries again...Kind of like sufficient funding for public/state schools.
d) Kindly don't call down that nightmare of a presidency on my country.
![[brick wall]](graemlins/brick_wall.gif) ![[Projectile]](graemlins/puke2.gif)
[ 30. October 2016, 23:19: Message edited by: Golden Key ]
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
simontoad--
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
Just as there is a rump of Englishmen who want to restore the Land of Hope and Glory, so there is a rump, a very large rump (but not large enough if the polls are right), of Americans who want to have their perceived needs catered for before any other American. They want women in their place, blacks in their place, and Hispanics and Asians out.
There ought be no compromise with these people. Their concerns are not legitimate. They should be disarmed as soon as possible. But they are not breeding very fast, so time and tide should take care of them, even if Trump wins this year.
While there are certainly some real jerks in the pro-Trump ranks, you are completely missing the pain felt by many people who have been fucked over for decades.
What Ruth said.
Gee, thanks, simontoad, for condemning a whole swathe of people in another country, and hoping they literally, biologically go extinct--especially without understanding the context.
![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
cliffdweller--
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
I know it will take ages before the winner actually becomes President, but when will we know the result?
It depends. With Bush v Gore, we didn't know for weeks (and even then...). With McCain v Obama we knew the minute the polls closed on the West coast. Just depends on how close it is.
I suspect it's going to be a long, drawn-out affair, even after the inauguration. Apt to be like Bush v. Gore, or much worse.
And, whoever wins, there will always be questions.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Anglican_Brat
Shipmate
# 12349
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Posted
If Hillary wins 300+ electoral votes, then the whole rigged election rant spouted by Trump will be hopefully put to rest.
If however, Hillary wins by 270 to 300 votes, expect the trouble will not be over.
Hillary needs to win comfortably well.
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It's Reformation Day! Do your part to promote Christian unity and brotherly love and hug a schismatic.
Posts: 4332 | From: Vancouver | Registered: Feb 2007
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican_Brat:
If Hillary wins 300+ electoral votes, then the whole rigged election rant spouted by Trump will be hopefully put to rest.
If however, Hillary wins by 270 to 300 votes, expect the trouble will not be over.
Hillary needs to win comfortably well.
She can win them all.
It won't be comfortably well...
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
cliffdweller--
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
I know it will take ages before the winner actually becomes President, but when will we know the result?
It depends. With Bush v Gore, we didn't know for weeks (and even then...). With McCain v Obama we knew the minute the polls closed on the West coast. Just depends on how close it is.
I suspect it's going to be a long, drawn-out affair, even after the inauguration. Apt to be like Bush v. Gore, or much worse.
And, whoever wins, there will always be questions.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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