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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
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ldjjd
Shipmate
# 17390
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Posted
If the Democrats were certain to regain control of the Senate and/or the House, I would be very happy with a Sanders/Warren ticket. They would be a breath of fresh air in the garbage dump.
Unfortunately, the two (Fox News: "Socialsts", "radicals","elitists", "pointy heads", "Godless", "statists") would be defeated in all liklihood, but it would be worth it to have a discussion of the dire needs of huge numbers of our citizens and to sow seeds of conscience in the process.
However, it will be next to impossible for Democrats to regain the House thanks to gerrymandering at the state level.
Not-at-all fun fact: Democratic House candidates as a whole won the overall popular vote for candidates but fell far short of a majority in the House - pseudo-democracy in action.
Given the above, we must nominate and vigorously support the Presidential candidate who can win. As things stand, that candidarte is Hilary.
Posts: 294 | Registered: Oct 2012
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
Maybe... with Jon Stewart as campaign manager...
What qualifies him to do this job? Stewart is amazing at what he's been doing for the last 15 years or so, but I don't see how a gift for satire would make him a stellar political operator.
According to Wikipedia, this was David Plouffe's resume, before he managed Obama's 2008 campaign:
quote:
Plouffe began his political career by working for Senator Tom Harkin's 1990 re-election campaign.[15] He later worked as a state field director for Harkin's unsuccessful 1992 Presidential campaign. In the same year he successfully managed Congressman John Olver's first re-election bid in Massachusetts. In 1994 Plouffe managed Delaware Attorney General Charles M. Oberly's unsuccessful campaign against Senator William V. Roth. He then worked as campaign director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 1995. In 1996 Plouffe managed Bob Torricelli's successful campaign to fill Bill Bradley's New Jersey seat in the United States Senate.[citation needed]
From 1997-98, Plouffe served as Democratic leader Dick Gephardt's Deputy Chief of Staff. In 1999–2000, as executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Plouffe led Democrats to gains that came within several thousand votes of winning back the House. He also led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to unusually high fundraising amounts, during his tenure at the DCCC. In the winter of 2000, Plouffe joined AKPD Message and Media but left briefly to serve as a strategist for Gephardt's unsuccessful Presidential bid. He returned to the firm and became a partner in February 2004. Beginning in 2003, Plouffe and fellow AKPD partner David Axelrod worked on Barack Obama's 2004 Illinois Senate campaign, beginning his association with Obama. Plouffe worked with Axelrod on the successful 2006 campaign of Deval Patrick for Governor of Massachusetts.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338
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Posted
Oh, it wasn't a serious suggestion. otoh, Stewart's pieces are able to shed light on an issue, skewer his opponents, and stir up support in a succinct 5 min spot better than anyone I know. Could be very valuable to any campaign I would think, in much the same way Bill Clinton was as "the explainer" in Obama's campaign.
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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner
Posts: 11242 | From: a small canyon overlooking the city | Registered: Jan 2008
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ldjjd
Shipmate
# 17390
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Posted
A Vice-Presidential candidate perhaps? Hilary could act "Presidential" while Stewart goes for the jugular. He'd have a field day with any GOP nominee.
Stranger things have happened in American politics.
Posts: 294 | Registered: Oct 2012
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cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by ldjjd:
A Vice-Presidential candidate perhaps? Hilary could act "Presidential" while Stewart goes for the jugular. He'd have a field day with any GOP nominee.
I don't see him as a Hilary fan. Oh, I'm sure if she ends up with the nod he'll support her-- but I don't see him getting excited enough about her presidency to leave a lucrative career where he can pretty much write his own ticket. I could see him however getting that excited about Sanders or Warren.
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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner
Posts: 11242 | From: a small canyon overlooking the city | Registered: Jan 2008
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Palimpsest
Shipmate
# 16772
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Posted
As fond as I am of Stewart, I watched and re-watched his farewell show. If you haven't seen it, try to catch it. I don't think he's going to have a ready platform for his opinions. Now Colbert on the other hand is in the catbird seat...
I think the other effect of so much money is that the clown circus is going to run a long time before people decide to settle down. Hopefully there will be time for some more attractive candidates to emerge.
Posts: 2990 | From: Seattle WA. US | Registered: Nov 2011
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ldjjd
Shipmate
# 17390
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Posted
Emerge on the Democratic side?
I'd have some suggestions on the Republican side. ![[Snigger]](graemlins/snigger.gif) ![[Devil]](graemlins/devil.gif)
Posts: 294 | Registered: Oct 2012
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
I bear good news for you all.
No matter what you fear from the 2016 election, there is hope, it will get better.
For, Kanye West has decided to run for President in 2020.
Yes, in a mere 5 years, the US will be perfected. Now, if only everyone else can get on board and we can elect him emperor of the world, humanity will have no more to worry about.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by ldjjd:
Sanders, for all his good sense and great ideas, will not be able to overcome the "Socialist" label. If he wins the nomination, he will be crushed in the general election.
Are you sure about that. Obama was constantly labelled a socialist by Republicans and yet he was elected twice.
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
After Obama, I think the Democrats may well be attracted to an experienced 'fixer and manipulator' given a) that they are likely to win again (demographics) and b) have to cope with a stacked House of Reps and/or Senate. That's the edge the Clinton family will have in selection of candidate. That happens first. On presidential polling day, disaffected minorities may see their choice as being between 'a louse and a double-louse' (a famous observation from a previous election). But if they stay away, they will get the GOP with a House Majority to boot. I don't think they will go for that.
[ 31. August 2015, 09:42: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
After Obama, I think the Democrats may well be attracted to an experienced 'fixer and manipulator' given a) that they are likely to win again (demographics) and b) have to cope with a stacked House of Reps and/or Senate. That's the edge the Clinton family will have in selection of candidate. That happens first. On presidential polling day, disaffected minorities may see their choice as being between 'a louse and a double-louse' (a famous observation from a previous election). But if they stay away, they will get the GOP with a House Majority to boot. I don't think they will go for that.
It's a hard choice, though. Between allowing a party to continue to think they can take you for granted with no real action on your pressing issues, or ending up like the Green Party, who's petulant 3rd party bid brought down the most pro-environmental candidate imaginable and gave us instead Bush/Cheney.
![[brick wall]](graemlins/brick_wall.gif)
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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner
Posts: 11242 | From: a small canyon overlooking the city | Registered: Jan 2008
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Bibliophile:
quote:
Originally posted by ldjjd:
Sanders, for all his good sense and great ideas, will not be able to overcome the "Socialist" label. If he wins the nomination, he will be crushed in the general election.
Are you sure about that. Obama was constantly labelled a socialist by Republicans and yet he was elected twice.
What Republicans label as socialist is sometimes beyond the comprehension of us poor Canadians, and is food for another thread (Canadian election coverage available on the web to the curious south of the border). In this case, however, Bernie Sanders formally ran under the Socialist Party label in Vermont, and was elected several times.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
It's a hard choice, though. Between allowing a party to continue to think they can take you for granted with no real action on your pressing issues, or ending up like the Green Party, who's petulant 3rd party bid brought down the most pro-environmental candidate imaginable and gave us instead Bush/Cheney.
True enough. I suppose it depends on how angry you feel. But Obama's publicly expressed frustrations seem real enough to me. He's hamstrung.
Until the electoral processes get reformed, the US looks to me to be stuck with legislative gridlock impeding any action, even compromise action, on other reform agendas. It might not take much to cause that to boil over bigtime.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
quote:
Originally posted by Bibliophile:
quote:
Originally posted by ldjjd:
Sanders, for all his good sense and great ideas, will not be able to overcome the "Socialist" label. If he wins the nomination, he will be crushed in the general election.
Are you sure about that. Obama was constantly labelled a socialist by Republicans and yet he was elected twice.
What Republicans label as socialist is sometimes beyond the comprehension of us poor Canadians, and is food for another thread (Canadian election coverage available on the web to the curious south of the border). In this case, however, Bernie Sanders formally ran under the Socialist Party label in Vermont, and was elected several times.
Too right. Bernie Sanders is just a left-of-centre candidate, and nothing to scare the horses. Now some of my fellow Dippers, they scare the horses. We call them the Socialist Caucus.
Bernie Sanders is what I call just getting started.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Bernie Sanders is what I call just getting started.
Bernie Sanders is what I call nearly dead.
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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ldjjd
Shipmate
# 17390
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
quote:
Originally posted by Bibliophile:
quote:
Originally posted by ldjjd:
Sanders, for all his good sense and great ideas, will not be able to overcome the "Socialist" label. If he wins the nomination, he will be crushed in the general election.
Are you sure about that. Obama was constantly labelled a socialist by Republicans and yet he was elected twice.
What Republicans label as socialist is sometimes beyond the comprehension of us poor Canadians, and is food for another thread (Canadian election coverage available on the web to the curious south of the border). In this case, however, Bernie Sanders formally ran under the Socialist Party label in Vermont, and was elected several times.
Too right. Bernie Sanders is just a left-of-centre candidate, and nothing to scare the horses. Now some of my fellow Dippers, they scare the horses. We call them the Socialist Caucus.
Bernie Sanders is what I call just getting started.
Don't overestimate the political sophistication of the typical American voter, for whom "Socialism" means horrible countries like Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and France, lands without freedom and economic opportunity. In the minds of many, even Canada would be on the list.
Posts: 294 | Registered: Oct 2012
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Don't forget "socialized medicine", a designation which has helped hold back a national health care system here.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Bernie Sanders is what I call just getting started.
Bernie Sanders is what I call nearly dead.
Well, he's not a spring chicken, but I always wish those in public life a long and healthy life (although some individuals I would like to see them experience retirement).
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Don't forget "socialized medicine", a designation which has helped hold back a national health care system here.
I have a friend who is just old enough to remember Saskatchewan when the CCF brought in Medicare in 1961. 30% patients never paid their bills, they were either dead or deadbeat. By 1962 Saskatchewan was a net destination for doctors as they made more money than under the private system. The Government took its cut for appearances, and let the doctors have the rest, and assured payment for every patient they saw.
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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Knopwood
Shipmate
# 11596
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Now some of my fellow Dippers, they scare the horses. We call them the Socialist Caucus.
It seems to me the SC (to which I belonged in my dipper days) inspires more yawns than fear. Their website and newsletter don't even seem to have been updated in some time. Fightback on the other hand seems to have a little more organizing clout. (The Toronto New Democratic Youth is dominated by Fighback entrists and frequently clashes with its provincial executive, who at one point voided the TNDY's executive elections when it returned a slate of Fightback/IMT Trotskysts).
Posts: 6806 | From: Tio'tia:ke | Registered: Jun 2006
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Dogwalker
Shipmate
# 14135
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Posted
Augustine the Aleut wrote:
quote:
In this case, however, Bernie Sanders formally ran under the Socialist Party label in Vermont, and was elected several times.
No, actually he didn't. He ran as an Independent in most elections, and as the Liberty Union candidate in others. See the Wikipedia article here for specifics.
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If God had meant for us to fly, he wouldn't have given us the railways. - Unknown
Posts: 155 | From: Milford, MA, USA | Registered: Sep 2008
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Dogwalker:
Augustine the Aleut wrote:
quote:
In this case, however, Bernie Sanders formally ran under the Socialist Party label in Vermont, and was elected several times.
No, actually he didn't. He ran as an Independent in most elections, and as the Liberty Union candidate in others. See the Wikipedia article here for specifics.
I stand corrected; I had relied on Burlington television news coverage, which our local cable company picked up in those halcyon days.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Dogwalker:
Augustine the Aleut wrote:
quote:
In this case, however, Bernie Sanders formally ran under the Socialist Party label in Vermont, and was elected several times.
No, actually he didn't. He ran as an Independent in most elections, and as the Liberty Union candidate in others. See the Wikipedia article here for specifics.
I stand corrected; I had relied on Burlington television news coverage, which our local cable company picked up in those halcyon days.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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Knopwood
Shipmate
# 11596
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Posted
With the Byzantine patchwork of ballot laws from state to state, it would not at all surprise me if the Socialist Party in Vermont endorsed a Liberty Union candidate. Hillary Rodham Clinton was elected to the senate as the candidate of the Democratic, Liberal, and Working Families parties, after all.
(The Socialist Party is story in itself, having dwindled to the faithful remnant emerging from the party's three-way split over the Vietnam War and relations with the Democratic Party).
[ 02. September 2015, 04:35: Message edited by: Knopwood ]
Posts: 6806 | From: Tio'tia:ke | Registered: Jun 2006
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
What's a dipper please? The usual meaning I know if this rather charming little bird.
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
What's a dipper please? The usual meaning I know if this rather charming little bird.
Canadian NDP
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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Dogwalker
Shipmate
# 14135
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Posted
Augustine the Aleut wrote:
quote:
I stand corrected; I had relied on Burlington television news coverage, which our local cable company picked up in those halcyon days.
To be fair to you, I don't think Channel 3 ever called him anything but "the Socialist Mayor of Burlington".
I lived in the Burlington area until I came to Mass in 1977, and visited my parents regularly until they died, and we got Ottawa and Montreal TV on our cable.
(I meant to post this last night, but had a commitment.)
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If God had meant for us to fly, he wouldn't have given us the railways. - Unknown
Posts: 155 | From: Milford, MA, USA | Registered: Sep 2008
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
quote:
Originally posted by moonlitdoor:
I've heard of all except three, Mark Everson, Ben Carson, and Lindsey Graham. Admittedly I don't know much about most of them, and knew of Carly Fiorina as a chief executive rather than as a politician, but there are plenty of British politicians I don't know much about either.
Who are considered the most serious candidates at this stage ? I am guessing Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, or is the name Bush considered too problematic ?
Throw Scott Walker into the list of serious candidates.
Scott Walker's campaign seems to have been sinking like a rock lately. Here is the latest polling average from Huffington Post
Donald Trump 32.5%
Ben Carson 13.1%
Jeb Bush 7.7%
Ted Cruz 6.2%
Marco Rubio 6.0%
Mike Huckabee 4.7%
Carly Fiorina 4.5%
Scott Walker 4.4%
John Kasich 3.4%
Rand Paul 2.6%
Chris Christie 2.5%
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
I am sorry to hear that Scott Walker is fading from the scene-- I was really anxious to hear how the northern frontier barrier (Wall of Scott doesn't have the same poetry as Wall of Hadrian) would be doing. I thought that perhaps it could provide employment for mosaic makers, so that the artistic shining wall could improve the aesthetic sensibilities of Minnesotans.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
I am sorry to hear that Scott Walker is fading from the scene-- I was really anxious to hear how the northern frontier barrier (Wall of Scott doesn't have the same poetry as Wall of Hadrian) would be doing. I thought that perhaps it could provide employment for mosaic makers, so that the artistic shining wall could improve the aesthetic sensibilities of Minnesotans.
LOL. He's also know in fifth place in the latest Iowa polls, joint fourth in New Hampshire and joint seventh in South Carolinia. Its difficult to see how he recovers from that.
I think a lot is the Trump factor. Trump has not only taken a huge amount of Walker's support base directly but he seems to have a particular antipathy to Walker, second only to his antipathy to Bush. He attacks them both at every opportunity. Whilst he may not get the nomination himself I can well see him preventing Bush or Walker from getting the nomination either.
[ 05. September 2015, 15:27: Message edited by: Bibliophile ]
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
A very bad poll for Jeb Bush came out this week from Public Policy Polling
Here are Hillary Clinton's General Election matchups in the poll. The figures below don't include don't knows and I've put them in order of Clinton lead from least to greatest lead
Clinton 44%
Carson 44%
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%
Clinton 45%
Fiorina 43%
Clinton 47%
Rubio 43%
Clinton 46%
Bush 42%
Clinton 47%
Cruz 42%
Clinton 44%
Kasich 39%
Clinton 48%
Huckabee 42%
Clinton 47%
Walker 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_90315.pdf
As you can see a bad poll for Bush but an absolutely disastrous one for Scott Walker who seems to be starting to circle the drain now.
The worst bit of the poll for Bush was when people were asked about a match up between Clinton, Bush and an Independent Trump
Clinton 42%
Trump 27%
Bush 23%
Third place would not be great for Bush. Interesting that the three Republicans who do best in the poll against Clinton - Carson, Fiorina and Trump - have all never held elected office.
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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irish_lord99
Shipmate
# 16250
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Bibliophile:
I don't know if this is th right thread to put this in but apparently Glenn Beck's 'The Blaze' in in trouble
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfxVM7U_C2g
I can't say I'm sorry about this, I'm not really a Glenn Beck fan
Oh Pleeeeeeaaaasssseeeee Lil' baby Jesus, may it be so!
I have to listen to three hours of his ranting every day on the job, it would be beyond satisfying to see his empire collapse.
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"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain
Posts: 1169 | From: Maine, US | Registered: Feb 2011
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
A couple more polls from the last week here (don't worry I'm not about to post up every poll but I do think these are particularly interesting). The first is a general election poll on Trump. Now Trump has been gradually improving his general election polling numbers but this is the first one that show Trump in the lead
Trump 45%
Clinton 40%
Trump 44%
Sanders 40%
Trump 44%
Biden 42%
Trump 44%
Gore 41%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6
Interesting to note how Clinton does worse out of possible Dem candidates on this poll.
The second poll is a Florida Republican Primary Poll. Florida is, of course, the home state of both Bush and Rubio. Bush was governor for 8 years and Rubio is an incumbent senator. As recently as July they were polling first and second in this state with Scott Walker regularly polling third. So how are Bush, Rubio and Walker doing now in the Sunshine state?
Trump 30%
Carson 25%
Bush 19%
Rubio 6%
Fiorina 5%
Kasich 3%
Cruz 3%
Cristie 2%
Huckabee 2%
Walker 1%
Jindal 1%
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FL-GOP-Pres-Prim-9.2.15.pdf
A very bad poll for Bush, Rubio and Walker.
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by irish_lord99:
I have to listen to three hours of his ranting every day on the job,
Oh, my-- that sounds horrible. Do they at least pay your some sort of hazard pay bonus??? I would have thought the labor code/occupational safety board would have some sort of rules against such work conditions. I'm available to organize picket lines/ boycotts...
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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner
Posts: 11242 | From: a small canyon overlooking the city | Registered: Jan 2008
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Bibliophile:
A couple more polls from the last week here (don't worry I'm not about to post up every poll but I do think these are particularly interesting). The first is a general election poll on Trump. Now Trump has been gradually improving his general election polling numbers but this is the first one that show Trump in the lead
Trump 45%
Clinton 40%
Trump 44%
Sanders 40%
Trump 44%
Biden 42%
Trump 44%
Gore 41%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6
Interesting to note how Clinton does worse out of possible Dem candidates on this poll.
Really? A poll claims that Donald Trump would win ~30% of the Hispanic vote and ~25% of the black vote (no Republican presidential candidate has gotten more than 11% of the black vote since 1996), and Hillary Clinton getting the same result (within the margin of error) as all the other Democrats in the poll is the thing that draws your attention? I'd say the former is much more notable (and sufficient grounds for increased skepticism about SurveyUSA's methodology) than the latter.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Bibliophile:
A couple more polls from the last week here (don't worry I'm not about to post up every poll but I do think these are particularly interesting). The first is a general election poll on Trump. Now Trump has been gradually improving his general election polling numbers but this is the first one that show Trump in the lead
Trump 45%
Clinton 40%
Trump 44%
Sanders 40%
Trump 44%
Biden 42%
Trump 44%
Gore 41%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6
Interesting to note how Clinton does worse out of possible Dem candidates on this poll.
Really? A poll claims that Donald Trump would win ~30% of the Hispanic vote and ~25% of the black vote (no Republican presidential candidate has gotten more than 11% of the black vote since 1996), and Hillary Clinton getting the same result (within the margin of error) as all the other Democrats in the poll is the thing that draws your attention? I'd say the former is much more notable (and sufficient grounds for increased skepticism about SurveyUSA's methodology) than the latter.
OK here's another general election poll from a different polling company. This one the latest ORC poll for CNN
Carson 51%
Clinton 46%
Bush 49%
Clinton 47%
Trump 48%
Clinton 48%
A better poll for Bush and a less good poll for Trump however it still shows Trump neck and neck with Clinton. A couple of interesting points from the date. Firstly the trends
June 26-28
Clinton 54%
Bush 41%
Clinton 59%
Trump 35%
July 22-25
Clinton 51%
Bush 46%
Clinton 56%
Trump 40%
August 13-16
Clinton 52%
Bush 43%
Clinton 51%
Trump 45%
Sept 4-8
Bush 49%
Clinton 47%
Trump 48%
Clinton 48%
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/10/demsclinton.pdf
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
Also on the point of the demographic breakdown of the above poll it includes these sub samples for the 'white' and 'non-white' categories
White
Bush 58%
Clinton 39%
Trump 57%
Clinton 40%
Carson 57%
Clinton 41%
Non-White
Clinton 66%
Bush 29%
Clinton 67%
Trump 28%
Clinton 58%
Carson 38%
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
Looks like the lineup for the Republican primary debate next week has been determined.
The main event will consist of:
- Republican Frontrunner Donald Trump
- Ben Carson
- J.E.B. Bush
- Ted Cruz
- Scott Walker
- Marco Rubio
- Carly Fiorina
- Mike Huckabee
- Rand Paul
- John Kasich
- Chris Christie
Note that Fiorina and Kasich have moved up from the "kiddie table" debate into the main event. Interestingly this debate will have one more candidate in the main event than last time (bringing the total to eleven*), but it still means that one candidate who was in the main event last time has been "demoted" to the earlier debate in next week's event. In this case it's Rick Perry who has been pushed down to the undercard event, where he'll join Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, and Lindsey Graham. Jim Gilmore has been dropped from the event entirely, not because he's dropped out of the race but because he hasn't achieved the minimum threshold of polled support to qualify for a seat.
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*The Spinal Tap-themed promotions practically write themselves. "The Reagan Library Republican Primary Debates: this time they go to eleven!"
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
Looks like the lineup for the Republican primary debate next week has been determined.
The main event will consist of:
- Republican Frontrunner Donald Trump
- Ben Carson
- J.E.B. Bush
- Ted Cruz
- Scott Walker
- Marco Rubio
- Carly Fiorina
- Mike Huckabee
- Rand Paul
- John Kasich
- Chris Christie
Note that Fiorina and Kasich have moved up from the "kiddie table" debate into the main event. Interestingly this debate will have one more candidate in the main event than last time (bringing the total to eleven*), but it still means that one candidate who was in the main event last time has been "demoted" to the earlier debate in next week's event. In this case it's Rick Perry who has been pushed down to the undercard event, where he'll join Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, and Lindsey Graham. Jim Gilmore has been dropped from the event entirely, not because he's dropped out of the race but because he hasn't achieved the minimum threshold of polled support to qualify for a seat.
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*The Spinal Tap-themed promotions practically write themselves. "The Reagan Library Republican Primary Debates: this time they go to eleven!"
Rick Perry has now dropped out of the race. I wonder if CNN will go ahead with having eleven in the main debate and four at the secondary event?
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Last night, Joe Biden gave a great interview to Stephen Colbert on "The Late Show".
Transcript (Ark.com)--Start reading at time point 00:18:13.
Video (YouTube).
B didn't come across at all as the sort of...dufus (someone who does everything wrong) that he so often did in the past. He was dignified, funny, and turned out to be a practicing Catholic who finds his faith very helpful.
I want Hillary to be president. I'll vote for her in the primary, and whoever the Dems run in the general election. However, we could do worse than have B for president.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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ldjjd
Shipmate
# 17390
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Posted
Sadly, I think he would likely lose to most of the potential GOP candidates, even some major nutters, who (with plenty of media help) will paint him as a doofus no matter what he says or does. Remember what they did to Al Gore, who gave them very little (arguably no genuine) ammunition.
The Republicans are scared to death of Hillary, and they would love to see her replaced by Biden or Sanders, neither of whom has a chance in the general election.
Posts: 294 | Registered: Oct 2012
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Soror Magna
Shipmate
# 9881
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Posted
Maybe not:
quote:
- Matchups among all American voters show:
- Biden tops Trump 48 - 40 percent. He beats Bush 45 - 39 percent and gets 44 percent to Rubio's 41 percent.
- Clinton edges Trump 45 - 41 percent. She gets 42 percent to Bush's 40 percent and gets 44 percent to Rubio's 43 percent.
- Sanders edges Trump 44 - 41 percent and edges Bush 43 - 39 percent. Rubio gets 41 percent to Sanders' 40 percent.
Quinnipiac poll
Biden has his amusing moments, but he's no doofus. Many of President Obama's accomplishments were built on foundations that Biden developed, using the wisdom and connections developed over years of public service. He's been referred to as the nation's Eulogizer-in-Chief and he has huge personal appeal among a wide variety of people.
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"You come with me to room 1013 over at the hospital, I'll show you America. Terminal, crazy and mean." -- Tony Kushner, "Angels in America"
Posts: 5430 | From: Caprica City | Registered: Jul 2005
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HCH
Shipmate
# 14313
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Posted
It is interesting to notice the ages of the various contenders.
Bernie Sanders was born in 1941.
Joe Biden was born in 1942.
Donald Trump was born in 1946.
Hillary Clinton was born in 1947.
Ben Carson was born in 1951.
Carly Fiorina was born in 1954.
Chris Christie was born in 1962.
Rand Paul was born in 1963.
Ted Cruz was born in 1970.
Marco Rubio was born in 1971.
While the Republicans apparently have a supply of relatively young, ambitious participants and more in the wings, the top Democrats are not spring chickens. Who does the Democratic party have to run for President in 2020, 2024, 2028, etc.?
(Our youngest President was 42 when he was sworn in, and the oldest was 69. The average is 54 years, 11 months.)
Posts: 1540 | From: Illinois, USA | Registered: Nov 2008
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
Nate Silver says that Trump will fail and that he won't clinch the candidacy. Normally I respect Silver a lot, but this time I'm not so sure.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Bibliophile
Shipmate
# 18418
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Soror Magna:
Maybe not:
quote:
- Matchups among all American voters show:
- Biden tops Trump 48 - 40 percent. He beats Bush 45 - 39 percent and gets 44 percent to Rubio's 41 percent.
- Clinton edges Trump 45 - 41 percent. She gets 42 percent to Bush's 40 percent and gets 44 percent to Rubio's 43 percent.
- Sanders edges Trump 44 - 41 percent and edges Bush 43 - 39 percent. Rubio gets 41 percent to Sanders' 40 percent.
Quinnipiac poll
Biden has his amusing moments, but he's no doofus. Many of President Obama's accomplishments were built on foundations that Biden developed, using the wisdom and connections developed over years of public service. He's been referred to as the nation's Eulogizer-in-Chief and he has huge personal appeal among a wide variety of people.
Matchups from the ORC poll I linked to above
Bush 49%
Clinton 47%
Biden 52%
Bush 44%
Clinton 48%
Trump 48%
Biden 54%
Trump 44%
I wouldn't underestimate Biden either. Look at the way that many of the Republican candidates have reacted to Donald Trump's attacks on them, complaining about what he has said about them.
Now I haven't followed Biden closely from across the pond so you'll have to tell me if I'm right about this but my impression is that Biden is someone who's instinct would be not to complain about it but to hit back twice as hard, something Trump's rivals have all failed to do.
Posts: 635 | Registered: Jun 2015
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Beeswax Altar
Shipmate
# 11644
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Posted
I think Biden is ready to retire and if he jumps in the race it will be because Hillary is very vulnerable and the Democrats don't believe Sanders can win.
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Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible.
-Og: King of Bashan
Posts: 8411 | From: By a large lake | Registered: Jul 2006
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irish_lord99
Shipmate
# 16250
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by HCH:
It is interesting to notice the ages of the various contenders.
Bernie Sanders was born in 1941.
Joe Biden was born in 1942.
Donald Trump was born in 1946.
Hillary Clinton was born in 1947.
Ben Carson was born in 1951.
Carly Fiorina was born in 1954.
Chris Christie was born in 1962.
Rand Paul was born in 1963.
Ted Cruz was born in 1970.
Marco Rubio was born in 1971.
While the Republicans apparently have a supply of relatively young, ambitious participants and more in the wings, the top Democrats are not spring chickens. Who does the Democratic party have to run for President in 2020, 2024, 2028, etc.?
(Our youngest President was 42 when he was sworn in, and the oldest was 69. The average is 54 years, 11 months.)
And President Obama was born in '61, meaning he was younger than most of the above when he ran the first time around.
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"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain
Posts: 1169 | From: Maine, US | Registered: Feb 2011
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ldjjd
Shipmate
# 17390
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Posted
The above poll doesn't take into account that Biden is not yet a candidate and therefore hasn't been subject to criticism, whereas Hillary has been under relentless attack involving the e-mail pseudo-scandal, something that will ultimately be seen as a cheap, nasty, partisan tempest in a tea pot.
I'm certain that candidate Biden would be painted (unjustly) as a doofus. His gaffes have already given rise to the pejorative term, "Bidenism".
Gore was all but destroyed by an inarticulate reference to the internet.
Here's a sample of what the Repubicans will have to throw againsrt Biden.
[ 12. September 2015, 22:28: Message edited by: ldjjd ]
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