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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
The thing that's missing from this kind of analysis is that the non-white poor are experiencing the exact same economic conditions, and yet their support for Donald Trump is negligible. If Trump's support was driven by economic factors we wouldn't expect to see such a huge racial divide.

What Gwai said above, plus if nationalism is the rallying call then it's easier to fuel a movement with ethnic nationalism than civic nationalism.
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Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
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quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:
The major tracking polls show that there has been no change in the overall percentages for Clinton or Trump.

What on earth are you talking about?

I guess it depends on the dates you pick. Compared to the middle of October, where Trump hit rock bottom on the RCP average with the debate performances and video, Trump is up from 41.5% to 45.3%. That cuts Clinton's lead from 6.7% to 2.2%. RCP.

Look, I want Clinton to beat Trump as well, but we shouldn't resort to counter-factual claims.

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Martin60
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quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
RuthW, Barnabas62. Yep. Trump refuses to adapt to globalization apart from negatively and Clinton can't positively. Strong hostile - negative trumps weak benevolent - positive for the white poor up in to the squeezed middle.

The thing that's missing from this kind of analysis is that the non-white poor are experiencing the exact same economic conditions, and yet their support for Donald Trump is negligible. If Trump's support was driven by economic factors we wouldn't expect to see such a huge racial divide.
Disagreed. It's just that non-white poor know that when people who are used to privilege don't get it, they want someone to blame. People know the squeezed white poor are going to angrily lash out at People of Color.
The poor are divided on majority vs minority ethnic lines, minorities always need the protection of the state and return the favour in spades (Christians in Syria and Iraq).

When you're poor, who's your competition? The OTHER poor, i.e. the poor of the other. And all protected minorities, protected from the harsh realities of life by positive discrimination. Immigrants, refugees, blacks, Hispanics, LGBTQs. Protected by liberal WOMEN.

And no OF COURSE I don't think that. The un-unionized majority - white - poor do. Everywhere. US, UK, Germany, France, Hungary. Strangely the northern Mediterranean peoples seem to less even though they have less. Spain, Italy, Greece.

We ALL hear that resentment ALL the time. If we're in the right place. I've been accused of being part of a UK charity system, like the benefits system, that favours Poles and Balts and Asians. Black Lives Matter protests REALLY don't go down well in the UK. Or bringing displaced Muslim kids from Calais to be with their British rellies.

If the establishment won't redistribute its wealth and power, unionize. WITH the minorities.

The ultimate rainbow coalition MUST fully embrace its most directly hostile enemy. White, working class men.

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Love wins

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Barnabas62
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Og is right. Hillary's four remaining firewall states (Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado) all show advances for Trump today on the 538 forecast. On trend lines, Florida seems likely to flip for Trump today or tomorrow, North Carolina and Nevada may well flip in the next few days. At the very least, they are well within the normal margin of error.

Hillary may still win the popular vote, but in the all important Electoral College count, she must hold Colorado to win, narrowly, AND hang on to other safer-looking states which may be being affected by the "rust" factor (and maybe the Comey effect). 272-266 (or 273-765 if Maine CD2 holds for her) are her bottom line winning posts.

She is thought to have a better ground game than Trump, and that may come into play if it's close. But the trend lines have turned against her. Right now, I reckon it's a coin toss.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Marvin the Martian

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
The thing that's missing from this kind of analysis is that the non-white poor are experiencing the exact same economic conditions, and yet their support for Donald Trump is negligible. If Trump's support was driven by economic factors we wouldn't expect to see such a huge racial divide.

I'm not convinced that they are experiencing the exact same economic conditions.

Firstly, they aren't in the same places. That may seem like a trite observation, but most of the non-white poor are in big cities where there are at least some efforts being made to improve community facilities, education, and prospects. And of course, in big cities there are always some jobs on offer. Most of the white poor are in rural areas or former industrial towns that have lost their industries, where such facilities and efforts are much less apparent and where there aren't nearly as many (if any) jobs.

Secondly, their different histories make for different conditions. Most of the white poor can remember a time when their towns still had the factories/plants/etc, and the decline and loss of jobs and dignity is fresh in the mind. The non-white poor, on the other hand, can see that people (albeit not all) are trying to improve their lot in life (however slowly). If one group is heading downwards and another is heading upwards, then to say they are in exactly the same position at the point when they cross is incorrect.

Adding the two factors together, it's easy to see how the white poor arrive at a narrative whereby their jobs and prosperity have been taken away by liberal globalisation, and all the new opportunities that said liberal globalisation creates for poor people to make good are being given to others.

I wrote this post thinking about America, but it strikes me that much the same can be said of the UK as well. And probably a lot of other first world countries.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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romanlion
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All this hand-wringing in the hopes of electing a proven liar, elitist hag under FBI investigation.

Amazing.


"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook."

Harry S. Truman


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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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Og, King of Bashan

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I'm not all the way to coin toss myself. The Republicans don't have a great senate candidate here in Colorado to drive turnout, which I think benefits Clinton. But I am starting to get a little more tense than I was a few days ago. It may be a late night. If Clinton wins the election by one Colorado vote, you all owe me a sixer of your favorite local brew. (I can drink them while cleaning up the eggs that I will allow Romanlion to throw at my house.)

I will say that if Trump can flip the four firewall states, it leaves Even McMullan a shot to throw it to the house with a Utah win (20% chances per 538 as of this morning).

Imagine the scene if a guy who won six total electoral votes gets voted in as President by the House. I honestly think the Republic would survive, but if there is one scenario that throws us into Constitutional crisis, that's probably it.

[ 01. November 2016, 15:50: Message edited by: Og, King of Bashan ]

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Eutychus
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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
All this hand-wringing in the hopes of electing a proven liar, elitist hag under FBI investigation.

Nice of you to drop back in again. Again.

Do you by any chance have an answer to my question way back on page 111 (and repeated on page 129...) yet?
quote:
Do you have any cogent arguments as to why it would be preferable to see Trump in office as opposed to Clinton?


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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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romanlion
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
All this hand-wringing in the hopes of electing a proven liar, elitist hag under FBI investigation.

Nice of you to drop back in again. Again.

Do you by any chance have an answer to my question way back on page 111 (and repeated on page 129...) yet?
quote:
Do you have any cogent arguments as to why it would be preferable to see Trump in office as opposed to Clinton?

I've never made any such assertion.

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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Eutychus
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So you prefer to sit on the sidelines throwing things?

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Eutychus
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I feel like Eustace.

quote:
the Dwarfs jeered back at Eustace. “That was a surprise for you, little boy, eh? Thought we were on your side, did you? No fear. We don’t want any Talking Horses. We don’t want you to win any more than the other gang. You can’t take us in. The Dwarfs are for the Dwarfs.”


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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Martin60
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Marvin the Martian, excellent piece of the jigsaw. Glad we agree on it being a European mid-latitude problem too.

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Love wins

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
All this hand-wringing ....

Maybe you're right? Maybe US citizens will decide that in a race between a louse and a double-louse, Hillary Clinton is really the double-louse?

I guess for many people, that's the way the choice looks. But I've looked at the denigration and belittling of Hillary Clinton, from you and from others, and the reasons for it. You don't convince simply by asserting that you are right.

Croesos has provided a cogent critique of this knee-jerk response. It has force. There is an excellent argument that there is prejudice involved.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Barnabas62
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PS - On the 538 "election now" option, Florida has just flipped to Trump.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Gramps49
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I think the factor that is starting to weigh down the Clinton election is not so much the emails as the projected premium increases in the Affordable Health Care insurance. When people's pocketbooks are affected, they react strongly.

Nevertheless, I still believe Clinton will win.

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Nick Tamen

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
PS - On the 538 "election now" option, Florida has just flipped to Trump.

Caveat: The "election now" model is the one that Nate Silver and Harry Entin at 538 say is the least reliable/best to ignore. Not saying that model may not be a signal of things to come after all, but the 538 folks caution about putting much stock in it.

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The first thing God says to Moses is, "Take off your shoes." We are on holy ground. Hard to believe, but the truest thing I know. — Anne Lamott

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Barnabas62
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All three options (polls plus, polls only, election now) show the flip. There has been a trend that way.

[ 01. November 2016, 17:25: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Nick Tamen

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
All three options (polls plus, polls only, election now) show the flip. There has been a trend that way.

Ah, it does indeed, though barely so for polls-only.

This has been a long election season.

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The first thing God says to Moses is, "Take off your shoes." We are on holy ground. Hard to believe, but the truest thing I know. — Anne Lamott

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romanlion
editorial comment
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
So you prefer to sit on the sidelines throwing things?

Not on the sidelines, I've voted already and I'm not one of those inquiring about the possibility of changing my ballot.

As to throwing things...what does that mean in the overall context of this thread? Did you mean throwing things back?

The fact that there is no justification whatsoever for voting Hillary does not automatically mean that a Trump vote is justified, but just the same...

Somebody's gotta say it...

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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Nick Tamen

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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
The fact that there is no justification whatsoever for voting Hillary does not automatically mean that a Trump vote is justified, but just the same...

Somebody's gotta say it...

No, someone doesn't. It is obviously your opinion that there is no justification whatsoever for voting for Hillary, and you are certainly entitled to that opinion. But that doesn't make it a fact.

I could wish the Dems had nominated someone else, and I have a variety of reasons for wishing that. But even if I was convinced of the truth of all the mud thrown at Clinton over the last few decades, which I am not at all, I think keeping Trump from becoming president is all the justification needed to vote for Clinton. She may have flaws—lots of them, even—but as far as I can see he is nothing but flaws, many of them very dangerous.

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The first thing God says to Moses is, "Take off your shoes." We are on holy ground. Hard to believe, but the truest thing I know. — Anne Lamott

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no prophet's flag is set so...

Proceed to see sea
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The view from here is that it would be preferable to vote any random death-row inmate before Trump. That he is taken at all seriously boggles.

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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/

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romanlion
editorial comment
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I understand that most people are trapped (read duped) by the major parties and are completely and blindly invested in their team/side/jersey color.

I am not.

There is not a thin dime's worth of difference between the two in practical terms. My life will not change.

Certainly more potential entertainment value in Trump, that's about it...

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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Nick Tamen

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quote:
Originally posted by Nick Tamen:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
All three options (polls plus, polls only, election now) show the flip. There has been a trend that way.

Ah, it does indeed, though barely so for polls-only.
And now, just a few hours later, polls-only is back to blue, though only by a hair.

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The first thing God says to Moses is, "Take off your shoes." We are on holy ground. Hard to believe, but the truest thing I know. — Anne Lamott

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rolyn
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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
Certainly more potential entertainment value in Trump, that's about it...

Quite so.
And because only a few short months ago most were complaining about being bored shitless with politics this abstract factor could yet end up being the tipping point.

Come back bland and boring politics all is forgiven.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Eutychus
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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
There is not a thin dime's worth of difference between the two in practical terms. My life will not change.

The capability for Trump to do diplomatic damage and/or further inflame social divides that could quite conceivably affect you looks like a very real possibility to me.

I wish you'd defend whatever your voting stance is or was on here instead of taking cheap shots. It would be a whole lot more informative.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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W Hyatt
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
There is not a thin dime's worth of difference between the two in practical terms. My life will not change.

The capability for Trump to do diplomatic damage and/or further inflame social divides that could quite conceivably affect you looks like a very real possibility to me.
Not to mention nuclear war.

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A new church and a new earth, with Spiritual Insights for Everyday Life.

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by Nick Tamen:
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Tamen:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
All three options (polls plus, polls only, election now) show the flip. There has been a trend that way.

Ah, it does indeed, though barely so for polls-only.
And now, just a few hours later, polls-only is back to blue, though only by a hair.
You've probably noticed that North Carolina has joined the flip-flop, too.

It's been a bad couple of days for Hillary Clinton, polls-wise. She needs to stop the rot, turn the tide in the battleground states. That might be easier said than done at this late stage.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Barnabas62
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What is going on?

This just feeds the Trump narrative.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
What is going on?

This just feeds the Trump narrative.

Good question. As series of unrelated tweets suddenly appear on the FBI's long dormant FOIA twitter feed. Subjects include the Clinton Foundation, the FBI's fitness standards, Nicola Tesla, and Fred Trump. All the tweets were released at exactly 1:00 am on October 30, except the one about the Clinton Foundation which was released 9:00 am on November 1.

Some speculative and tentative reporting here and here.

This will do nothing to quell rumors of different rogue factions within the FBI leaking things to serve their own agenda.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Barnabas62
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It looks like some mischievous hacking is going on, and not just with the FBI. Michelle Obama's Twitter feed seems to have been sabotaged as well. This election is becoming more and more bizarre.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Martin60
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Tamen:
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Tamen:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
All three options (polls plus, polls only, election now) show the flip. There has been a trend that way.

Ah, it does indeed, though barely so for polls-only.
And now, just a few hours later, polls-only is back to blue, though only by a hair.
You've probably noticed that North Carolina has joined the flip-flop, too.

It's been a bad couple of days for Hillary Clinton, polls-wise. She needs to stop the rot, turn the tide in the battleground states. That might be easier said than done at this late stage.

North Carolina is still for Clinton according to the BBC.

His chances now are better than 1:4 That will improve even further on the day.

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Love wins

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Teekeey Misha
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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
The fact that there is no justification whatsoever for voting Hillary...

There is justification for voting Clinton; she's not Trump.

That, surely, is the most compelling justification there has ever been to vote for anybody in the history of voting.

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Misha
Don't assume I don't care; sometimes I just can't be bothered to put you right.

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Barnabas62
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The two major aggregate pollsters (RealClearPolitics and 538) have both states knife-edged, Martin, with less than 1% between the candidates. In both states the trend has been towards Trump over the last few days.

The Michelle Obama Twitter feed thing seems to have been a hoax not a hack, but designed to support is story of 'rats leaving a sinking ship'.

PS Teekeey Misha. It would be for me if I had the vote.

[ 02. November 2016, 00:07: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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romanlion
editorial comment
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quote:
Originally posted by Teekeey Misha:
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
The fact that there is no justification whatsoever for voting Hillary...

There is justification for voting Clinton; she's not Trump.

Well, as long as we are voting based on what a candidate is not...

She is not honest

She is not sincere

She is not charismatic

She is not humble

She is not kind

She is not generous

She is not likable

She is not respectable

She is not inspirational


So run out and vote for what she's not...if that's all you've got.

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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lilBuddha
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Other than charismatic* those are all things Trump is not.

*YMMV on that.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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romanlion
editorial comment
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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Other than charismatic* those are all things Trump is not.

*YMMV on that.

So she is worse than Trump...

You said it, not me...

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325

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quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:
I think the factor that is starting to weigh down the Clinton election is not so much the emails as the projected premium increases in the Affordable Health Care insurance. When people's pocketbooks are affected, they react strongly.

How much are your premiums going up?

30% here...

[ 02. November 2016, 01:49: Message edited by: romanlion ]

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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Did someone spike the watercoolers at the FBI???

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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We need to go back to before Obamacare, when premiums NEVER went up. Ever. Not once.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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lilBuddha
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# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Other than charismatic* those are all things Trump is not.

*YMMV on that.

So she is worse than Trump...

You said it, not me...

First, charisma is not the positive attribute it is presented as.
Second, his mendaciousness is to hers as a whale shark is to a guppy. Much the same for the other characteristics.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Gramps49
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# 16378

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I am not under Obamacare, but the average in Washington State is 19%. Nationally, though, the premium increase average will be around 50%.
Posts: 2193 | From: Pullman WA | Registered: Apr 2011  |  IP: Logged
Gramps49
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# 16378

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Moody's Analytics, which uses an economic model in predicting the election his saying Clinton will will win with 332 electoral votes.

MSNBC is reporting that early voting in Florida indicates 28% of Republicans who have voted there are voting for Clinton. This suggests that with the Republican party being divided, Florida will be blue. Trump needs Florida to win. Does not look like it will happen.

Meanwhile the national KKK has endorsed Trump.

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Amanda B. Reckondwythe

Dressed for Church
# 5521

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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
His mendaciousness is to hers as a whale shark is to a guppy. Much the same for the other characteristics.

True. He is a despicable character with absolutely no redeeming qualities whatsoever. At least she has some.

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"I take prayer too seriously to use it as an excuse for avoiding work and responsibility." -- The Revd Martin Luther King Jr.

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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A senator has implied that Hillary's face should be on a bull's-eye target. This article at "HelloGiggle" gives several relevant links.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Barnabas62
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# 9110

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Gramps49

I wouldn't get your hopes up on the basis of Moody's Analytics. It doesn't take candidates' personalities into account. A more telling analysis, by Nate Silver, suggests that if Hillary Clinton maintains about a 3+% lead in the popular vote her chances are very good, but if it drops to about 2% there is a high risk of her firewall being breached and Trump winning.

I think the secret to her stemming the tide is the ground game and in particular getting out the African American vote. Plus campaigning with her big guns in the firewall states most at risk. She might get Florida safely back in the blue with a big effort there, I suppose, but that's a high risk call and still doesn't rule out a loss if she loses one or two of the firewall states.

It's a toss up, and halting the Trump momentum where it really matters is what counts now. I hope that's what Hillary Clinton's advisers are telling her.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Martin60
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# 368

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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Teekeey Misha:
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
The fact that there is no justification whatsoever for voting Hillary...

There is justification for voting Clinton; she's not Trump.

Well, as long as we are voting based on what a candidate is not...

She is not honest

She is not sincere

She is not charismatic

She is not humble

She is not kind

She is not generous

She is not likable

She is not respectable

She is not inspirational


So run out and vote for what she's not...if that's all you've got.

How does one differentiate between projection and objective reality? What's actually happening at the party before one brings anything to it?

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Love wins

Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Teekeey Misha
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# 18604

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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
Well, as long as we are voting based on what a candidate is not...
She is not honest
She is not sincere
She is not charismatic
She is not humble
She is not kind
She is not generous
She is not likable
She is not respectable
She is not inspirational

So run out and vote for what she's not...if that's all you've got.

Remove "charismatic", change your "she"s to "he"s (and add at least a dozen other negative characteristics to the list) and you've written the beginnings of a pen portrait of Trump, but only the beginnings.

The points you make are all subjective and I disagree with you on all of them except "charismatic"; "charismatic" is not something I consider a virtue, so not to be charismatic is a good thing. Trump certainly has charisma by the bagful and we know what happens to the world when charismatic leaders are elected.

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Misha
Don't assume I don't care; sometimes I just can't be bothered to put you right.

Posts: 296 | From: UK | Registered: Jun 2016  |  IP: Logged
romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
We need to go back to before Obamacare, when premiums NEVER went up. Ever. Not once.

Back before Barry repeatedly said that premiums would go down by $2500 per year?

I concur. We should...

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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There are many things I like about the 538 website, as well as its appeal to my geeky fascination with statistics. The Election podcasts are very good. The latest one contains a memorable quote from Nate Silver.

"I feel like I'm in some bad dream ..."

Pretty much sums up my feelings, too.

[ 02. November 2016, 11:33: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Amanda B. Reckondwythe

Dressed for Church
# 5521

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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
We need to go back to before Obamacare, when premiums NEVER went up. Ever. Not once.

Back before Barry repeatedly said that premiums would go down by $2500 per year?

I concur. We should...

Why not lay the blame where it belongs: on Congress, who vowed to oppose anything proposed by President Obama regardless of the merits and regardless of whether individual members had previously advocated same; and on the pharmaceutical and insurance industries, whose money Congress is only all too willing to take to support the selfish aims of those industries?

Yes, President Obama has an unfortunate habit of putting his foot in his mouth, but that is no reason to hate him to the point of calling him by a diminutive.

The fact remains that the United States of America is one of the first world's only countries, if not THE only country, that doesn't provide health care for its citizens. The Affordable Care Act was the best that the President could do given Congress' obstructive will. Instead of calling the President names, why not insist that Congress get off its overpaid butts and fix it?

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"I take prayer too seriously to use it as an excuse for avoiding work and responsibility." -- The Revd Martin Luther King Jr.

Posts: 10542 | From: The Great Southwest | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged



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