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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
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quote:
Originally posted by Amanda B. Reckondwythe:
Yes, President Obama has an unfortunate habit of putting his foot in his mouth, but that is no reason to hate him to the point of calling him by a diminutive.

Oh, that's not the reason people hate him.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Wesley J

Silly Shipmate
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Why do people hate him? Are the (m)any objective reasons for this, in your observation?

(Although this thread is of course more about the 2016 election than about the incumbent.)

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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)

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BroJames
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For some people it is not so much the fact that he puts his foot in his mouth from time to time (most politicians do), rather it is the colour of that foot which disturbs them. [Roll Eyes]
Posts: 3374 | From: UK | Registered: Jun 2005  |  IP: Logged
cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
We need to go back to before Obamacare, when premiums NEVER went up. Ever. Not once.

Exactly. Insurers are raising premiums this year for the exact same reason they have done so each and every year: because they can.

Obamacare did not change that, but it didn't cause it either. To change it we need single payer. Shoulda coulda woulda put Bernie on the ballot and that would have been an option. As it now stands, it shouldn't be an issue in this election, since neither candidate is apt to change that.

Shouldn't of course being the operative word. Doesn't mean it won't.

[ 02. November 2016, 13:13: Message edited by: cliffdweller ]

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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Crœsos
Shipmate
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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
We need to go back to before Obamacare, when premiums NEVER went up. Ever. Not once.

Exactly. Insurers are raising premiums this year for the exact same reason they have done so each and every year: because they can.

Obamacare did not change that, but it didn't cause it either.

But Obamacare did change the amount that would be passed along to policyholders:

quote:
Yep, Qualified Health Plans in the individual market are seeing roughly a 25% price hike year over year. For people who are buying on Exchange, the vast majority of that price hike will be hidden if they are being subsidized and if they are willing to switch plans. For people who are buying off-Exchange or don’t qualify for subsidies, they are screwed.
In other words, Obamacare was designed to take rising premiums into account and cover those at the lower end of the income spectrum with higher subsidies. Ignoring or eliding this is about as dishonest as claiming that a $2,500 price reduction relative to the current trajectory is the actually a promise of a $2,500 price reduction relative to the current cost.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562

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quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Why do people hate him? Are the (m)any objective reasons for this, in your observation?

There are pretty obvious policy differences between the parties, and those differences touch on personal issues. So that's part of it- the major spokesperson for the group that wants to take personal issues in a different direction than you would prefer is not going to be your favorite person in the world. This is not to deny that race has colored how people express their disagreement with Obama. It's just to point out that there actually are people who didn't agree with what he wanted to get done, even though you may not run into too many of them in your personal social circles.

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Why do people hate him? Are the (m)any objective reasons for this, in your observation?

There are pretty obvious policy differences between the parties, and those differences touch on personal issues. So that's part of it- the major spokesperson for the group that wants to take personal issues in a different direction than you would prefer is not going to be your favorite person in the world. This is not to deny that race has colored how people express their disagreement with Obama. It's just to point out that there actually are people who didn't agree with what he wanted to get done, even though you may not run into too many of them in your personal social circles.
That would explain the opposition. It does not explain the raw, visceral, irrational hatred. "Policy differences" does not explain the racist memes, the endless irrational conspiracy theories, or the very real death threats.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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Gramps49
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Romanlion, you say:

quote:
Well, as long as we are voting based on what a candidate is not...
She is not honest
She is not sincere
She is not charismatic
She is not humble
She is not kind
She is not generous
She is not likable
She is not respectable
She is not inspirational

So run out and vote for what she's not...if that's all you've got.

You are doing the same thing Trump does, projecting his faults onto his opponent.
Posts: 2193 | From: Pullman WA | Registered: Apr 2011  |  IP: Logged
Gramps49
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I cited Moody Analytics in response to the assertion that major polls are now showing Trump over Clinton. Moody has accurately predicted the winner ever since it started it's program.

Remember, national polls, at this stage, mean nothing. The more important polls, now, are state polls. Gore learned this when he ran against Bush. Even through he won the national vote, it took only one state swinging to Bush that defeated him.

Another measure in favor of Clinton is the early voting indicators. We have now have more than double the early vote. There is an old adage that says the greater the vote, the more likely the Democrats will win.

BTW, I voted yesterday. I don't think I need to share who got my vote, though I would say for the first time I voted more down ballot, on state offices, than I have ever done before.

Posts: 2193 | From: Pullman WA | Registered: Apr 2011  |  IP: Logged
Crœsos
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quote:
A local [Greenville, MS] black church, Hopewell M.B. Church, was not only burned but also vandalized with the words "Vote Trump" spray painted on the side of the building. Mayor Errick D. Simmons, Greenville Fire Chief, Washington County Sheriff and other local state and federal law enforcement agencies are holding a press conference Wednesday sometime between 10:30 a.m. and 11:00 a.m.
Obviously "policy differences" at work. [Possible video auto-play at link.]

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Hilda of Whitby
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quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Why do people hate him? Are the (m)any objective reasons for this, in your observation?

(Although this thread is of course more about the 2016 election than about the incumbent.)

Where to start?

His race, for starters.

Conspiracy theories regarding his religion.

Then there are the birther conspiracy theories.

There are numerous people in this country who simply do not see his presidency as legitimate, and IMO much if not all of it is due to racism. It's horrifying.

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"Born with the gift of laughter and a sense that the world is mad."

Posts: 412 | From: Nickel City | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Why do people hate him? Are the (m)any objective reasons for this, in your observation?

There are pretty obvious policy differences between the parties, and those differences touch on personal issues. So that's part of it- the major spokesperson for the group that wants to take personal issues in a different direction than you would prefer is not going to be your favorite person in the world. This is not to deny that race has colored how people express their disagreement with Obama. It's just to point out that there actually are people who didn't agree with what he wanted to get done, even though you may not run into too many of them in your personal social circles.
That would explain the opposition. It does not explain the raw, visceral, irrational hatred. "Policy differences" does not explain the racist memes, the endless irrational conspiracy theories, or the very real death threats.
Go back and look at where I said that I was not denying that race colored how some folks expressed their disagreement with Obama.

People have always hated the President when he was in the opposite party. Definitely not in the way that many folks hate Obama, but let's not pretend that politics don't get personal.

As for the church burning, there is always going to be a particularly violent, unashamedly racist element in this country. I'm not trying to excuse or explain that. I'm trying to explain the far more common phenomenon: otherwise nice people who don't consider themselves racist who nonetheless don't notice that their passion for the issues leads them to do and say far less visible but still pretty hurtful stuff. Pointing to church burnings does nothing to make these folks think, because they will just respond that they would never take it that far. It's fun to be inflammatory and paint with a broad brush, but it doesn't do anything to make people take a step back and realize that even if they aren't burning churches to the ground, they still let their passions take them too far on some days.

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Wesley J

Silly Shipmate
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Thanks, Hilda, Croesus and all.

I was expecting some passionate haters of certain of his policies, but what you've been saying is indeed ghastly, because deeply irrational. Words fail.

Regarding the burnt-down black church - I wonder if Trump et al will quickly and officially distance themselves from this, and GOP people go and try to help. At least that's what the Democrats did when a GOP office was firebombed a few weeks back!

Now, are Trump and his ilk able (well, or willing...) to offer the same kind of support, compassion and humanity?

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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)

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Barnabas62
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Just horrid. Glad no-one was hurt. Sad what it appears to say about some Trump supporters.

I suppose it may mobilise/motivate African American voters, which is a Clinton need. But tbh I'm more bothered about whether it will provoke civil disorder. That would be pretty much the last straw in this hate-filled and polarised election.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Wesley J

Silly Shipmate
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Indeed. This, in its extremity - and I hope, all proportions guarded - reminds me of Nazi Germany and their slogans painted on Jewish shops "Kauf nicht bei Juden! [Don't buy from Jews!]"

Very very strange.

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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)

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Crœsos
Shipmate
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I suppose it may mobilise/motivate African American voters, which is a Clinton need. But tbh I'm more bothered about whether it will provoke civil disorder. That would be pretty much the last straw in this hate-filled and polarised election.

I'm assuming you're talking about the church burning. If so, I'd suggest that it is civil disorder, rather than something that might "provoke" civil disorder.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Barnabas62
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Croesos

Quite right - I meant further civil disorder. Thanks for the correction.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
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Vandalism of houses of worship happens with such distressing frequency in the US that I doubt this instance will lead to violent protest.
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Gramps49
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A number of years ago, when I was stationed in Mississippi, a local black church was vandalized. The congregation was so devastated, it did not think it could recover. But I got a group of airmen together and we went out to help the congregation repair its building. Many of the airmen could not believe the level of vandalism to the building, but they were determined to not let hate win.
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Barnabas62
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A bit of effective comedy from the Huffington Post

Not sure about Wikileaks further leaks. I've got a feeling they have something up their sleeve for the weekend. The drip-drip-drip technique has fed the Trump narrative and frankly I'd be amazed if there hasn't been some co-ordination going on. Not sure about its ongoing effect anymore, but I guess I could be wrong about that.

On forecasting, the gap in the popular vote seems to have narrowed a bit more today but the same key states all seem to be in play. Arizona, Ohio, Iowa all look as though they will now go for Trump. Florida and North Carolina look like dead heats, and maybe Nevada has joined them in that. Colorado still looks as though it will go for Clinton in the end. New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin look as though they will all hold for Clinton.

It's close and looks to be getting closer.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
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I'm a bit stressed about the whole thing at the moment, and am going to take a step back.

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Human

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Golden Key
Shipmate
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And some of the militias are getting ready:

"Trump’s Populist Campaign Has Energized U.S. Militia Groups." (HuffPost)

quote:
As the most divisive presidential election in recent memory nears its conclusion, some armed militia groups are preparing for the possibility of a stolen election on Nov. 8 and civil unrest in the days following a victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton.

They say they won’t fire the first shot, but they’re not planning to leave their guns at home, either.

I think it's time to stock the pantry, and get a passport...

[Paranoid] [Help] [Votive]

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I'm a bit stressed about the whole thing at the moment, and am going to take a step back.

Don't blame you at all.

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

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cliffdweller
Shipmate
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quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Why do people hate him? Are the (m)any objective reasons for this, in your observation?

There are pretty obvious policy differences between the parties, and those differences touch on personal issues. So that's part of it- the major spokesperson for the group that wants to take personal issues in a different direction than you would prefer is not going to be your favorite person in the world. This is not to deny that race has colored how people express their disagreement with Obama. It's just to point out that there actually are people who didn't agree with what he wanted to get done, even though you may not run into too many of them in your personal social circles.
That would explain the opposition. It does not explain the raw, visceral, irrational hatred. "Policy differences" does not explain the racist memes, the endless irrational conspiracy theories, or the very real death threats.
Go back and look at where I said that I was not denying that race colored how some folks expressed their disagreement with Obama.

People have always hated the President when he was in the opposite party. Definitely not in the way that many folks hate Obama, but let's not pretend that politics don't get personal.

But Og's question was not about opposition but hatred. And no, I don't think the level of hatred directed at Obama is the "normal" or "ordinary" sort of hatred directed at Presidents of the opposite party. I don't know that we're too far apart in what we're saying although there appears to be a difference in perspective. But Og's question seems to be directed to the group you and I both agree is racist and filled with irrational hatred, as opposed to the normal sorts of distaste one usually feels for a president whose policies you don't favor or whose party you don't align with.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

Posts: 11242 | From: a small canyon overlooking the city | Registered: Jan 2008  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I'm a bit stressed about the whole thing at the moment, and am going to take a step back.

Don't blame you at all.
Brief personal note. I've got a bit of shore leave coming up so won't be around much, if at all, til Monday. Take care, all interested parties in this thread. The 'nervous wrecking' potential of this thread is a sign of Tuesday's importance and implications.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
leftfieldlover
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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I'm a bit stressed about the whole thing at the moment, and am going to take a step back.

I know exactly what you mean. I am off on holiday next week and hope when we get back that the dust has settled - in some shape or form!

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I can gauge your mood from your approach to food.

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Amanda B. Reckondwythe

Dressed for Church
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Miss Amanda is ready to tune out herself. She wants to hear nothing more about the election between now and next Tuesday.

A friend is having an election night party. I'll pass on attending. I just want to go home, go to bed, and watch the news Wednesday morning to see who won.

I do think, however, we have to be prepared for the possibility that the lunatics are going to take over the asylum. [Ultra confused]

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"I take prayer too seriously to use it as an excuse for avoiding work and responsibility." -- The Revd Martin Luther King Jr.

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Boogie

Boogie on down!
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quote:
Originally posted by Amanda B. Reckondwythe:

I do think, however, we have to be prepared for the possibility that the lunatics are going to take over the asylum. [Ultra confused]

How does one prepare for that?

Hope, if they get in, their influence is small?

Hope they burn out, do something stupid or get impeached or similar?

Turn off all news channels indefinitely?

Move to Canada?

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Garden. Room. Walk

Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008  |  IP: Logged
romanlion
editorial comment
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quote:
Originally posted by Amanda B. Reckondwythe:

I do think, however, we have to be prepared for the possibility that the lunatics are going to take over the asylum. [Ultra confused]

You must mean the lunatics who would willfully and belligerently vote for a woman who is the subject of two separate FBI investigations? A proven liar, who profited from her political positions to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars?

All we can do is hope not...

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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman

Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
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We can hope you can do better than a stuck record, certainly.

Clearly you dislike both front-running candidates, Clinton more than Trump, and think the system simply has itself to blame for bringing things to such a pass. What I keep missing in your posts is any hint of your ideas for a way forward. Taking cheap shots is easy; being constructive, not so much.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
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quote:
Originally posted by Amanda B. Reckondwythe:

I do think, however, we have to be prepared for the possibility that the lunatics are going to take over the asylum. [Ultra confused]

Here is an interesting analysis of the potential global impact. It contains the following pithy quote.

quote:
As for the idea that a Trump presidency would be a disaster, that is completely wide of the mark. It is actually much worse than most people think. President Trump has the potential to be an unmitigated catastrophe – if not for the United States, then certainly for the rest of the world.
Which I guess is one of the reasons why this thread has gathered so much interest from folks outside the US. The New Statesman article identifies the catastrophic risks to relationships with allies, the world economy and global security. And those risks are related directly to things Donald Trump has said, repeatedly, throughout the campaign.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Crœsos
Shipmate
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
We can hope you can do better than a stuck record, certainly.

Clearly you dislike both front-running candidates, Clinton more than Trump, and think the system simply has itself to blame for bringing things to such a pass.

Why would you say that? Romanlion has nothing but praise for Donald Trump. I mean that in the most literal sense; romanlion has never made any kind of critical comment about Trump and has praised his virtues on occasion. Such as his claim that Donald Trump is admirable and virtuous because he's dedicated to increasing his own material wealth.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562

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Hold on to your butts, folks, 538 has Clinton's lead down to New Hampshire, and Trump winning slightly more than one out of three simulated elections.

Maybe if he wins there will be a mass exodus of retirement age federal attorneys and I will finally be able to land a job with a federal agency. Trying to find something positive here.

Oh well, I voted, nothing I can do now but carry on and plan on going to work on Wednesday no matter what happens.

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
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Yes, New Hampshire is marginally more at risk than Colorado. Florida, Nevada and N Carolina are all very very close still. But the downward trend in Hillary Clinton's prospects seems to be continuing. The popular vote lead is down to about 3% .

Hold on to your butts indeed!

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
# 2522

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Took advantage of early voting this morning. I know it's not over, but I must note that the polling station was full mostly of women.

And we were all smiling at each other.

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76

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quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Amanda B. Reckondwythe:

I do think, however, we have to be prepared for the possibility that the lunatics are going to take over the asylum. [Ultra confused]

You must mean the lunatics who would willfully and belligerently vote for a woman who is the subject of two separate FBI investigations? A proven liar, who profited from her political positions to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars?

All we can do is hope not...

You know, fortunately I'm not American and don't have to make a decision, but I think if it came to a choice between Sauron and Trump. I'd just about be able to force myself to pick Trump. Otherwise, no. You don't have to be a saint to be the lesser of two evils when the other one's Trump. The man's what you get if you distil hatred of "the other" and form it into humanoid form and grant it the curse of Narcissism. Very nasty, very dangerous.

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Might as well ask the bloody cat.

Posts: 17938 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28

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God help me I just lost it with a pro-Trump patron here at work. I feel a little sick.

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Boogie

Boogie on down!
# 13538

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I have dear friends in Mexico, just two hours South of the border. I worry for them too [Frown]

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Garden. Room. Walk

Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008  |  IP: Logged
Carex
Shipmate
# 9643

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I am intrigued in the sudden shifts in the polls to the point of considering what might be causing them apart from actual changes in the electorate. This wouldn't be the first time that biased polls were used to justify a complaint of rigged elections.

Not to say that the prior polls were necessarily correct, but more generally, polls only report what people tell them, and that doesn't always reflect actual voting behavior.

For example:

1) Are those who have already voted being included - or reporting their votes - in the same way as before?

2) What demographics of the population are being over/under represented, whether due to who gets asked, or because some groups are less willing to respond to a poll?

As I was writing this, I saw FiveThirtyEight has an article that most votors have not changed their minds all year, and much of the recent shifts may have been more due to who is responding to the surveys. That doesn't, of course, tell us which set of data is more indicative of how the voters will actually respond, but I expect to see some discussion about the accuracy of polls after the election.

And, speaking of which, the article also reported a poll showing that 59% of Americans were exhausted by the election coverage - back in the early Summer.


At this point you just do whatever you can do (vote, help with GOTV campaigns, adjust your investment portfolio, etc.) and then wake up Wednesday morning to see what happened. It's too debilitating to keep worrying about every little announcement or bounce in the polls.

Posts: 1425 | Registered: Jun 2005  |  IP: Logged
quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740

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Trump on 34% on 538. Oh shit. I notice that over time, the lines for Clinton and Trump have diverged and converged several times. I don't know what explains this, but maybe Clinton has peaked too soon.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
Why would you say that? Romanlion has nothing but praise for Donald Trump.

I said it because your assertion isn't actually true.

For instance:

quote:
There is not a thin dime's worth of difference between the two in practical terms (...) Certainly more potential entertainment value in Trump, that's about it...
(1 November)

quote:
To be fair, Trump is no prize either..
(10 October)

and most spectacularly

quote:
Hillary is every bit the arrogant, self-serving, elitist piece of shit that Trump is, only without the odd knack for mass appeal he has.
(13 September)

That is why, in view of the lack of positive assertions on his part, romanlion's behaviour reminds me of that of the dwarfs in The Last Battle.

(For a political take on these dwarfs that mentions Trump, albeit at an earlier stage, see here. For a spiritual one, see here. "The high cost of cynicism" is right).

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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We are now five days from Election Day 2016. The previous entry in this series can be found here. There has now been enough time for most polls used by the various aggregators to have been taken post-Comey.

Nate Silver has the probability of a Clinton victory at 65%, with an average outcome of 290 electoral votes for Clinton. Interestingly he also assigns one electoral vote to Evan McMullin. This represents not a prediction of one electoral vote, but an average result of McMullin having about a 1-in-6 chance of winning Utah's six electoral votes. This is fairly sharp decline in electoral votes for Clinton from our last report as the polling has tightened in several key states, though a Clinton victory is still more likely than not according to 538. Silver's polls-plus, polls only, and nowcast remain closely convergent, as we'd expect this close to the election. Nate Silver remains the most bearish of the major poll-predictors on the prospect of a Clinton victory.

Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium predicts a 97% chance of a Clinton victory using a random drift model and a 99% chance using Bayesian analysis, the same as last time. There was a glitch earlier which reported a 100% Bayesian probability of a Clinton victory, but it seems to have been fixed now. Wang's average outcome is Clinton getting 317 electoral votes.

The Upshot at the New York Times currently gives Hillary Clinton an 86% chance of winning the election, down a little from last time. Only click through that link if you're a NYT subscriber or you're willing to use one of your ten monthly Times clicks on this. The Upshot also has a useful summary of all the major election predictors. At the moment none of them are predicting a Trump victory. They differ over a range of considering a Trump presidency a 1-in-3 likelihood to a 1-in-100 likelihood, with the median being somewhere around 1-in-7.

PredictWise is a prediction market, not a poll aggregator, where people bet on the outcome of various events. The premise is to harness market forces and the wisdom of the masses to predict outcomes. Currently PredictWise has Hillary Clinton's chances of victory at 84%.

RealClearPolitics, which is a current state aggregator rather than a predicting trend analyzer, currently has Clinton winning 226 electoral votes, Trump winning 180 electoral votes, and 132 electoral votes listed as "toss ups". Once again they've included a couple states in the "toss up" category I wouldn't have, but this is a fairly dramatic shift in Trump's favor. This seems to be due to Trump gaining polling strength. Interestingly this seems to be not at Clinton's expense (she's holding steady at ~45%, where she's been since early October) but at the expense of Gary Johnson.

The folks at electoral-vote.com (another real-time poll aggregator like RealClearPolitics) currently have Clinton winning 317 electoral votes to Trump's 221 if the election were held today.

So what does the electoral math look like at this point? My own back-of-the-envelope calculations say that there are 259 nearly-certain electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 179 nearly-certain electoral votes for Donald Trump. The remaining 100 electoral votes are divided between eight states and two congressional districts (in Maine and Nebraska, the only two states to subdivide their electoral votes by congressional district).

Of these 100 "battleground" electoral votes there are 36 electoral votes in what are currently Trump-leaning jurisdictions (AZ, IA, OH, and NE-2), 13 electoral votes in Clinton-leaning states (CO and NH), and 51 electoral votes in places that are truly toss-ups (FL, NC, NV, and ME-2). Trump's path to victory requires him to win all the Trump-leaning states, all of the toss-ups, and then pick up either New Hampshire or Colorado.

Once again the usual caveats apply about how anything can change in the next five days. This is the current state of play, not a prediction, and we seem to be in the midst of a Trump consolidation.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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The Princeton Election Consortium also features electoral maps based on their own state-level analysis, but more interestingly and usefully they also include the Trump + 2% and the Clinton + 2% maps, which show what the electoral map would look like if Trump or Clinton (respectively) outperforms their current polling by two percentage points.

Frustratingly Wang only seems to update these maps every few days, but he did it today so the links are (currently) hot-off-the-presses.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:

Trump's path to victory requires him to win all the Trump-leaning states, all of the toss-ups, and then pick up either New Hampshire or Colorado.

That's pretty much what you get from both RCP and 538. But the polling patterns are all over the place. In the last few days from Florida, for example, you've had polls showing everything from Trump +4% to Clinton+4%. Looking at the three most recent polls, Clinton is leading, by 1, 2, and 3%. (These are raw scores, 538 adjusts for past performance as signs of reliability and/or built in bias). Is Clinton fighting back in Florida, or is this just statistical variation? Who knows - yet.

(Nate Silver has some concerns about how appropriate his model is this time round, for a variety of reasons. The quality and frequency of states polls information is poorer than in 2012).

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:

(Nate Silver has some concerns about how appropriate his model is this time round, for a variety of reasons. The quality and frequency of states polls information is poorer than in 2012).

IMO, there are Trump voters who are too embarrassed to admit it. He is so obviously an unqualified choice, many cannot honestly answer without ridicule.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008  |  IP: Logged
rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840

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Polls this, Polls that, Polls the other.
I think the time is come for the World to pull the duvet cover over it's head and peep out on Nov 9.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011  |  IP: Logged
nickel
Shipmate
# 8363

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Am I the only one to think that because the media keeps saying 'No one likes Hillary', there are people not wanting to advertise they are voting for her? I've seen quite a few pro-republican yard signs that are using four year old "Romney/Ryan" signs in place of "Trump/Pence," but haven't seen any "Obama/ Biden" signs in democrat's yards (in my part of Virginia, at least).

I remain hopeful.

Posts: 547 | From: Virginia USA | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338

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quote:
Originally posted by nickel:
Am I the only one to think that because the media keeps saying 'No one likes Hillary', there are people not wanting to advertise they are voting for her? I've seen quite a few pro-republican yard signs that are using four year old "Romney/Ryan" signs in place of "Trump/Pence," but haven't seen any "Obama/ Biden" signs in democrat's yards (in my part of Virginia, at least).

I remain hopeful.

In my part of LA I see lots of "I'm with her" signs. I have to go south to Orange Co to see Trump/Pence signs. It seems very regional.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

Posts: 11242 | From: a small canyon overlooking the city | Registered: Jan 2008  |  IP: Logged
Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564

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I see quite a lot of signs for local Republicans, but few Trump signs. Quite a few people who had Romney signs four years ago just have signs for the Republican candidate for our congressional district this time around.

Of course, it's possible that they had Trump signs that were immediately stolen.

[ 04. November 2016, 01:30: Message edited by: Leorning Cniht ]

Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013  |  IP: Logged
Wesley J

Silly Shipmate
# 6075

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quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
[...] Of course, it's possible that they had Trump signs that were immediately stolen.

Ya think they were... grabbed?

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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)

Posts: 7354 | From: The Isles of Silly | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged



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