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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
[...] Of course, it's possible that they had Trump signs that were immediately stolen.
Ya think they were... grabbed?
Around here they are.
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
Do any of the vandalised signs depict...cats?
I'll get me coat....
IJ
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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
One of the understated advantages of the Clinton campaign is the number of high profile surrogates they're able to deploy on their behalf. This includes not just political figures (like the current president, vice president, and first lady) but also pop culture figures like Katie Perry and Jay Z. And just when you thought they'd tapped every possible resource, there's this:
quote:
Former First Lady Rosalynn Carter will hold a series of events in Albany [Georgia] Friday, to campaign for Hillary Clinton and Georgia Democrats.
Carter will begin the day with a luncheon at the Albany Welcome Center at 11:30.
Then she will visit Albany State University to speak with student leaders at 1:30.
The First Lady will conclude the day’s events with a go vote phone bank at Carter’s Grill and Restaurant, at 3:30.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Amanda B. Reckondwythe
Dressed for Church
# 5521
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
Do any of the vandalised signs depict...cats?
Pigwidgeon lives in the East Valley; I'm in the West Valley. Out this way we've seen surprisingly few, if any, signs for either Clinton or Trump. There are scores of signs for just about every other candidate for anything as well as for the various ballot propositions.
Personally I don't see the use of signs. To me they're an unnecessary eyesore. All they say is "Vote for . . ." or "Don't vote for . . ." without giving reasons. At best they're uninformative; at worst deceptive.
(Fictitious) example of a deceptive sign: "Vote Yes on Prop 666. Keep our kids safe." Well, yes, I want to keep our kids safe, so Prop 666 must be worthwhile. What the sign doesn't say is that Prop 666 advocates putting a loaded pistol in every child's lunchbox "just in case violence erupts in the lunchroom."
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"I take prayer too seriously to use it as an excuse for avoiding work and responsibility." -- The Revd Martin Luther King Jr.
Posts: 10542 | From: The Great Southwest | Registered: Feb 2004
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Amanda B. Reckondwythe:
Pigwidgeon lives in the East Valley; I'm in the West Valley. Out this way we've seen surprisingly few, if any, signs for either Clinton or Trump. There are scores of signs for just about every other candidate for anything as well as for the various ballot propositions.
I've actually seen very few Presidential Election signs out this way either -- plenty for Sheriff, Senate, etc.
I totally agree with you on how pointless signs stuck along the road are (plus, they block the view when you're driving). I once had a phone call on behalf of someone running for Mayor of a large city located between you and me. The caller asked if I were familiar with "X". I said I'd seen his name on a sign in an empty lot. "Oh! So you're voting for him?" she replied. I explained that no, I had seen his name on a stick in an empty lot -- that was hardly a reason to vote for him. (IIRC, I didn't.)
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Re Sam Wang. Fried locusts are a well known food in some parts ...
[ 04. November 2016, 16:17: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
That's embarrassing.
That link, I mean...
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
![[Yipee]](graemlins/spin.gif) I'm all voted, and I'm with her!!!
{Hums "I Am Woman, Hear Me Roar!}
[ 05. November 2016, 04:49: Message edited by: Golden Key ]
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Wesley J
Silly Shipmate
# 6075
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
[...] I'm all voted, and I'm with her!!! [...]
Well done, GK, and many thanks. ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
- A worried citizen of Planet Earth. -
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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)
Posts: 7354 | From: The Isles of Silly | Registered: May 2004
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Not really enough time to do this justice in the context of this thread. But this quote is saying something and not just in the Brexit context.
quote:
As any number of dystopian fictions from Rollerball to The Hunger Games have long warned us, the future is a televised contest played for the highest stakes. So we must have known the current shitshow was in the post. Either way, it turns out all those who used to tut, “How low can reality TV go?” were totally asking the wrong question. Look how high it’s gone!
Donald Trump chastised the President for remonstrating with the crowd on behalf of Trump supporter. it just fitted better with his agenda than telling the truth would. That's a current "reality". As was Fox TV getting suckered. Low blows reaching for the high ground, without shame.
[ 05. November 2016, 08:35: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430
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Posted
More light relief - an effigy of The Donald (holding Hillary's head!) is due to be burnt today as part of the Bonfire Night celebrations at a small town in this county:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-37852354
I doubt if it'll be the only one!
IJ
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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)
Posts: 10151 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004
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nickel
Shipmate
# 8363
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Posted
A more positive yard sign that's turned up: welcome sign
It says, in english, spanish and arabic: "No matter where you are from, we're glad you're our neighbor." Quite pleasant to see these!
Posts: 547 | From: Virginia USA | Registered: Aug 2004
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Soror Magna
Shipmate
# 9881
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
Do any of the vandalised signs depict...cats?
I'll get me coat....
IJ
My best friend's cat disappeared three days ago. I think Trump grabbed her. ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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"You come with me to room 1013 over at the hospital, I'll show you America. Terminal, crazy and mean." -- Tony Kushner, "Angels in America"
Posts: 5430 | From: Caprica City | Registered: Jul 2005
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
I have a friend who does cosplaying -- costume roleplay. Since he is mildmannered and not tall, he favors dictators, and since he is Asian he does a great Kim Jong Un. (Those of you who were at the World SF Convention in London a few years ago may have seen him.) He got his hands on a blond wig, however, and is now playing Trump. He has armed himself with a navy blue suit, a red necktie, a kitty beany baby toy to grab, and a box of TicTacs, to shake whenever a pretty woman goes by.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
For those of us who hoard our 10 monthly clicks: the NY Times online will be free November 7-9 (from 12:01 a.m. ET on Monday, November 7 until 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 9).
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Really interesting, IMHO.
"This elementary school has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1968." (CBS News)
They--kindergarten through 5th grade--start by discussing the issues as sort of a blind taste test. (Candidates A and B.)
And yes, the article does mention their predicted winner.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
There's putting your money where your mouth is, and then there's putting your mouth where your polling predictions are:
quote:
Sam Wang
@SamWangPhD
It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug.
There followed some entomological snark.
Just discovered this was pre-Comey. He says he'll live with the quote. B62 forecast and pledge. If Sam Wang doesn't have to eat a bug, I will re-read Calvin's 'Institutes'. Compared to which, eating one fried locust is child's play.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Tukai
Shipmate
# 12960
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Posted
Owing to the influence of the USA on the world economy and peace, in our church service in Australia this morning the "prayers for others" included:
"For the citizens of the United States, as they prepare for an election, that they may have both wisdom, and sanity may prevail there to keep them away from shooting each other both during an dafter the election. "
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A government that panders to the worst instincts of its people degrades the whole country for years to come.
Posts: 594 | From: Oz | Registered: Sep 2007
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Wesley J
Silly Shipmate
# 6075
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Posted
Tukai, was this read out aloud? And did the 'shooting each other' part raise any eyebrows, or get a snigger or two? Did anyone keep a straight face? But perhaps they would in Oz?!
Enquiring mind and all that!
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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)
Posts: 7354 | From: The Isles of Silly | Registered: May 2004
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Huia
Shipmate
# 3473
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
For those of us who hoard our 10 monthly clicks: the NY Times online will be free November 7-9 (from 12:01 a.m. ET on Monday, November 7 until 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 9).
Thanks NYT and thank you Ruth for bringing it to our attention.
Huia
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Charity gives food from the table, Justice gives a place at the table.
Posts: 10382 | From: Te Wai Pounamu | Registered: Oct 2002
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Twilight
Puddleglum's sister
# 2832
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Posted
Two days ago, Obama was speaking at a Clinton rally when a dissenter started yelling. He reminded everyone that we have free speech and everyone waited the guy out. Yesterday some poor guy quietly held a sign at a Trump rally saying, "Republicans Against Trump," and he was mobbed and beaten. What will life be like if this man and his violent followers win?
Posts: 6817 | Registered: May 2002
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Twilight--
From what I heard on the news, there's a little more to the "Republicans Against Trump" story. The protester was just standing there with his sign, when someone shouted "Gun!" and indicated the protester.
AIUI, the protester was released, once it was all straightened out. Don't know anything about the person who shouted, nor whether they were simply mistaken or messing around.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
I've quickly stepped out of my air raid shelter to reveal that the Planet America experts unanimously predict a Clinton victory.
Now, I think I need a couple more tins of evaporated milk...
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
More light relief - an effigy of The Donald (holding Hillary's head!) is due to be burnt today as part of the Bonfire Night celebrations at a small town in this county:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-37852354
I doubt if it'll be the only one!
IJ
Lewes had four, I think. There are three here:
Effigies Sorry it's the Mail, but I like their headline! Too much Edenbridge, though.
More here: Effigies again The frog behind Trump is, I suspect, Nigel Farage.
The fourth effigy is down the page here: In a jalopy
There seems to be more political comment than at Edenbridge!
Reuters headline was "You're fired" - no-one else seems to have used quite that.
Posts: 5833 | Registered: May 2009
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Twilight:
Two days ago, Obama was speaking at a Clinton rally when a dissenter started yelling. He reminded everyone that we have free speech and everyone waited the guy out. Yesterday some poor guy quietly held a sign at a Trump rally saying, "Republicans Against Trump," and he was mobbed and beaten. What will life be like if this man and his violent followers win?
This was Trump's reaction to the Obama story. Would he know truth if it came up and bit him?
Obama screaming!
Posts: 5833 | Registered: May 2009
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Twilight
Puddleglum's sister
# 2832
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Penny S:
This was Trump's reaction to the Obama story. Would he know truth if it came up and bit him?
He would know it, but he would quickly have his people remove it, before it became a problem.
Posts: 6817 | Registered: May 2002
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Wesley J
Silly Shipmate
# 6075
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Posted
This is getting worse and worse - if this guy gets elected, it will be a tr-i-ump-ph for irrationality, untruth, uncouth and as said countless times before by a variety of learnéd people, simply: post-truth. It would be a 9/11 of electioneering.
I hope he won't, and will promptly have dozens of legal proceedings opened against him for his too often entirely illegal, indecent tricks and treatises.
This is one of the worst and most consistent episodes of high-ranking untruths, betrayal and lies I've ever been following in my life. I guess many others may feel the same!
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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)
Posts: 7354 | From: The Isles of Silly | Registered: May 2004
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Wesley J
Silly Shipmate
# 6075
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Posted
From the Grauniad and a journalist who followed him for many months: By the end of his campaign,...
quote:
Trump had stopped trying to be a normal candidate but he was no longer being Trump. It was a dark hybrid. He had lost much of the freewheeling joie de vivre that had taken him to strange, albeit controversial places. Instead, he had become a relatively coherent figure, articulating a clear world view – but one that was deeply paranoid and out of the mainstream, where the press was no longer a stalking horse but simply the enemy.
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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)
Posts: 7354 | From: The Isles of Silly | Registered: May 2004
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
This is getting worse and worse - if this guy gets elected, it will be a tr-i-ump-ph for irrationality, untruth, uncouth and as said countless times before by a variety of learnéd people, simply: post-truth. It would be a 9/11 of electioneering.
I hope he won't, and will promptly have dozens of legal proceedings opened against him for his too often entirely illegal, indecent tricks and treatises.
This is one of the worst and most consistent episodes of high-ranking untruths, betrayal and lies I've ever been following in my life. I guess many others may feel the same!
And Illary would constitute a difference how?
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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mdijon
Shipmate
# 8520
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Posted
Yes it would. The moral equivalence justification is too easy and lazy. Whatever criticisms there are, Hillary Clinton does not stand in front of her supporters justifying and preaching prejudice, misogyny and racism. She doesn't justify saying whatever insult comes into her mind by saying it is just words. She doesn't show contempt for the intelligence of the public by simply denying she said what is on her twitter account. She doesn't make a virtue of ignorance.
You may say that is simply hypocrisy. Well if the only way one can demonstrate a civilized level of discourse and avoid trumpeting hate is hypocrisy we all need more hypocrisy to get through. Atavistic, amoral hatred may be un-PC, great and liberating for some but I'd prefer the veneer of civilization went back on again.
Posts: 12277 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2004
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
I've just had to turn off the news. Hillary the most hated candidate ever. Trump endorsed by the KKK under his slogan "Make America Great Again."
He's probably got a little list - going to sue Lewes Bonfire Boys and Edenbridge for their charity collections. All the people on all the message boards who have dissed him.
Most of my cerebral cortex is telling me this is rubbish and he cannot win, and if he does, he won't be doing that sort of thing, but my brain stem is telling me off for eating some of my stockpile instead of saving it.
Posts: 5833 | Registered: May 2009
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Wesley J
Silly Shipmate
# 6075
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Penny S:
[...] Trump endorsed by the KKK under his slogan "Make America Great Again." [...]
Incredible. What about 'openly endorsed by the mafia'? When will people wake up?
Question: Has there ever been a candidate that drew so much 'support' from quasi-underworld groups and associations as Trump, and in such an undisguised manner?
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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)
Posts: 7354 | From: The Isles of Silly | Registered: May 2004
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
I've done my part. I wrote a review of THE HANDMAID'S TALE, by Margaret Atwood. It is posted on my blog today, for a reason. We do what we can do, and a book review is the best I can offer in the cause. Fiction, my other weapon, is a supremely long-term gun. The target is the imagination, which means no result will be seen for a generation or more; Homer said that our gift is eternal fame. But for closer work, all I have is reviewing.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
This is getting worse and worse - if this guy gets elected, it will be a tr-i-ump-ph for irrationality, untruth, uncouth and as said countless times before by a variety of learnéd people, simply: post-truth. It would be a 9/11 of electioneering.
I hope he won't, and will promptly have dozens of legal proceedings opened against him for his too often entirely illegal, indecent tricks and treatises.
This is one of the worst and most consistent episodes of high-ranking untruths, betrayal and lies I've ever been following in my life. I guess many others may feel the same!
And Illary would constitute a difference how?
There would be fewer legal proceedings outstanding against the president. And that's merely those in progress.
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
This is getting worse and worse - if this guy gets elected, it will be a tr-i-ump-ph for irrationality, untruth, uncouth and as said countless times before by a variety of learnéd people, simply: post-truth. It would be a 9/11 of electioneering.
I hope he won't, and will promptly have dozens of legal proceedings opened against him for his too often entirely illegal, indecent tricks and treatises.
This is one of the worst and most consistent episodes of high-ranking untruths, betrayal and lies I've ever been following in my life. I guess many others may feel the same!
And Illary would constitute a difference how?
There would be fewer legal proceedings outstanding against the president. And that's merely those in progress.
Civil proceedings can settle in an instant.
Criminal proceedings, not so much...
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"You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook" - Harry S. Truman
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Well no, especially if the potential incumbent seems to think that due process is not necessary and simply throwing political opponents in jail without any regard for the separation of powers is appropriate.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
And in any case, romanlion, it looks like you're out of luck on the criminality aspect, at least regarding emails.
What a farce.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
xpost, obviously.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I've quickly stepped out of my air raid shelter to reveal that the Planet America experts unanimously predict a Clinton victory.
Experts or not, I do not think any exhales of relief will be heard until the votes have been cast, counted and come in favour of HC.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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Amanda B. Reckondwythe
Dressed for Church
# 5521
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
Civil proceedings can settle in an instant. Criminal proceedings, not so much...
You mean criminal proceedings regarding statutory rape, sexual assault, embezzlement, fraud, theft of services -- where does the list stop?
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"I take prayer too seriously to use it as an excuse for avoiding work and responsibility." -- The Revd Martin Luther King Jr.
Posts: 10542 | From: The Great Southwest | Registered: Feb 2004
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
We are now two days from Election Day 2016. The previous entry in this series can be found here. This will be my last poll analysis of this election cycle, though I'll probably put up some kind of election night guide tomorrow.
Nate Silver has the probability of a Clinton victory at 65%, with an average outcome of 291 electoral votes for Clinton. This is about where 538 was last time. Nate Silver remains the most bearish of the major poll-predictors on the prospect of a Clinton victory to the degree that he's something of an outlier at this point. Blogger Scott Lemieux analyzes whether it's more reasonable to believe Silver or everyone else at this point.
quote:
There are two additional reasons why I think 35% is a very substantial overestimation of Trump’s chances of winning. If I understand correctly, the assumption of the 538 model is that 1)there is an unusual degree of uncertainty and 2)this uncertainty is equally likely to favor Trump as Clinton. Accepting the first premise arguendo, I don’t really buy the second. Trump’s unusual candidacy, to the extent that it can be expected to differ from the typical Republican coalition, should be more likely to attract middle-class white voters without college educations and less likely to attract Hispanic voters. The problem for Trump is that given historical turnout patterns, this presents much more upside for Clinton than Trump. And, in fact, in early voting the Latino turnout has been up substantially, including in Florida (where a loss would leave Trump drawing dead) and in the firewall states of Nevada and Colorado. Between this and Clinton’s far superior organization, I think the polls are much more likely to be overestimating Trump’s results than underestimating them.
I guess we'll know for sure in three days. Another analysis of Nate Silver can be found here. [NSFW]
Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium predicts a >99% chance of a Clinton victory using both a random drift model and Bayesian analysis. As noted previously, he has now moved on to the "dare you to eat a bug" stage of statistical analysis.
The Upshot at the New York Times currently gives Hillary Clinton an 84% chance of winning the election, down a little from last time. The Times has said that it will be granting free access to all its content on November 7-9, so if you're reading this then feel free to click. Otherwise it counts as one of your ten monthly NYT clicks. The Upshot also has a useful summary of all the major election predictors. At the moment none of them are predicting a Trump victory. They differ over a range of considering a Trump presidency a 1-in-3 likelihood to a 1-in-100 likelihood, with the median being somewhere around 1-in-7. As noted earlier, 538 is the outlier with the 1-in-3 prediction.
PredictWise is a prediction market, not a poll aggregator, where people bet on the outcome of various events. The premise is to harness market forces and the wisdom of the masses to predict outcomes. Currently PredictWise has Hillary Clinton's chances of victory at 87%.
RealClearPolitics, which is a current state aggregator rather than a predicting trend analyzer, currently has Clinton winning 216 electoral votes, Trump winning 164 electoral votes, and 158 electoral votes listed as "toss ups". Both candidates have lost ground in the EC according to RCP, so they're more confused than ever.
The folks at electoral-vote.com (another real-time poll aggregator like RealClearPolitics) currently have Clinton winning 317 electoral votes to Trump's 215, with 6 electoral votes (Nevada) too close to call if the election were held today.
The big picture seems to be that the gains Trump had made in the past week have stalled where they are, leaving him (according to most) a bit short of the finish line.
A different caveat this time. Everything's already set and not much is going to change in the next two days. The only uncertainty is how much we actually know about where things currently are.
[ 06. November 2016, 21:01: Message edited by: Crœsos ]
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
This will be my last poll analysis of this election cycle
Dated, but applicable, and obligatory: link.
Thanks for your sterling work!
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Echoing thanks to Croesos.
On my earlier point about pausing for the myth to adjust to the FB! latest news, well it already has.
quote:
Newt Gingrich, an adviser to the Republican nominee, tweeted: "Comey must be under enormous political pressure to cave like this and announce something he cant [sic] possibly know."
Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway tweeted: "If FBI conclusions remain unchanged, that means she still was reckless & careless, still lied about classified info, lied re: # of devices."
Campaigning in Minnesota on Sunday, Mr Trump made no mention of Mr Comey's findings.
But he did say Mrs Clinton "will be under investigation for a long, long time, likely concluding in a criminal trial".
He also renewed his claims that the Democrat was being "protected by a rigged system".
Source: the foot of this article.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Tukai
Shipmate
# 12960
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Tukai, was this* read out aloud? And did the 'shooting each other' part raise any eyebrows, or get a snigger or two? Did anyone keep a straight face? But perhaps they would in Oz?!
Enquiring mind and all that!
Answer: Yes, aloud. And it was taken seriously, as even in Australia (where we have our share of lying politicians) there is a widespread view that the US polls indicate that a substantial proportion of Americans have taken leave of their senses. Added to which the well-established American world-leading propensity for gun homicides makes for a frightening prospect.
i.e. the prayer for my previous post:
*"For the citizens of the United States, as they prepare for an election, that they may have both wisdom, and sanity may prevail there to keep them away from shooting each other both during and after the election. "
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A government that panders to the worst instincts of its people degrades the whole country for years to come.
Posts: 594 | From: Oz | Registered: Sep 2007
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Amanda B. Reckondwythe:
quote:
Originally posted by romanlion:
Civil proceedings can settle in an instant. Criminal proceedings, not so much...
You mean criminal proceedings regarding statutory rape, sexual assault, embezzlement, fraud, theft of services -- where does the list stop?
As far as Donald J Trump is concerned, it stops on the steps of the White House. It's as if people have never heard of Executive Privilege. ![[Disappointed]](graemlins/disappointed.gif)
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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