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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
cliffdweller
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ABC just called it for Cruz-- quite the setback for Trump. I'd be dancing if the streets over that, if it weren't for the for the fact that Cruz appears to be just a somewhat quieter version of Trump's brand of crazy.

On the Democratic side, still too close to call...

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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Brenda Clough
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Oh, thank God. He must really have a soft spot for Americans after all. If the cup of Trump has passed from us then I feel so much better.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Og, King of Bashan

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# 9562

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I was 50% right on the GOP side. Cruz over Trump was a surprise, but a strong showing from Rubio, who came damn close to beating Trump. I'm just waiting to see how Trump spins this.

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Crœsos
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I, for one, am waiting for the first reporter to ask Trump about his reaction to being "schlonged" by Ted Cruz.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
I was 50% right on the GOP side. Cruz over Trump was a surprise, but a strong showing from Rubio, who came damn close to beating Trump. I'm just waiting to see how Trump spins this.

Trump just spoke, and his spin was: 1. "they" told him when the campaign was starting out that he wouldn't finish in the top 10, and he proved "them" wrong; 2. he's way ahead in New Hampshire. So he's still trying to portray himself as a winner, but his tone was decent.

With a close third place finish, Rubio can/should claim the establishment Republican slot. If the party bigwigs have any sense at all, they will soon start leaning hard on people like Bush and Kasich to drop out so Rubio can consolidate what passes for the "moderate" wing of the Republican party these days.

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Leorning Cniht
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So O'Malley's pulling out. I suppose he thought he ought to see it through to the first vote, although it's been obvious that this was a two horse race for a while.

A narrow Hillary victory would still be a good result for Bernie. A narrow Bernie victory would be a great one.

On the Republican side, Huckabee's gone, and I'd expect a couple of the other no-hopers to drop out soon.

As for Cruz vs Trump, Cruz is certainly less loud, but I don't think his opinions are any prettier. Rubio isn't much less extreme, but I suspect he looks more acceptable to a centrist.

I might guess that Rubio - Sanders might go the GOP's way in a general election.

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mousethief

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Saw one prediction that Clinton could win the % vote, but Sanders could end up with more delegates (21 to 19). That would be interesting!

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
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Establishment falling over itself to get behind Rubio.

Will Sanders have enough momentum out of this and New Hampshire to actually do anything in Nevada, South Carolina, and moving forward?

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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Clinton is speaking now. "I'm a progressive who gets things done," she says. WTF? On what planet is Hillary Clinton a progressive?
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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:

As for Cruz vs Trump, Cruz is certainly less loud, but I don't think his opinions are any prettier.

Agreed. In fact, one of the truly dangerous things about Trump's candidacy is how his loud version of crazy misogynist zenophobia drowned out Cruz' only slightly less crazy misogynist zenophobia, making him look "sane" by comparison.


quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Clinton is speaking now. "I'm a progressive who gets things done," she says. WTF? On what planet is Hillary Clinton a progressive?

America. This is what passes for progressive in America.

[ 02. February 2016, 03:39: Message edited by: cliffdweller ]

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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Golden Key
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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
What a magnificent festival of democracy! I wish we did caucusing here.

You can! I'll just pack up a few candidates, and send them down there for you to practice on. Now, which ones, which ones...

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Palimpsest
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Hilary as a progressive is interesting.
Now that there's been some evidence of a liberal/left faction of the Democratic party with Sander's support, we see the mirror image of the Republican classic strategy of as going as far right needed to win the primaries and then tacking back a bit toward center for the general election.

Rest assured if Hilary wins, she'll be back in the third way centrist path that her husband ran on.

It is interesting that Sanders could come so close in a conservative state.
It's also a relief to see some of the 4 place candidates drop out. I was afraid with Citizen's United that the undead would walk through all the primaries.

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Golden Key
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Re Cruz:

If he believes what his dad believes, he'd be worse than Trump.

His dad is a Dominionist, and AIUI believes that Ted is one of the end-times Christian "princes" that will bring back the riches of the world that rightly belong to God.
[Ultra confused]

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Martin60
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Damn! And there was me thinking that nothing could be worse than Trump!

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Love wins

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Barnabas62
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Some fascinating exit poll analysis of the Iowa results.

538 made an HC victory a strong probability, Trump a weaker probability in a close race.

It also looks from these later exit polls that the initial sampling of born again/evangelicals (showing a close three-way split) was wrong. Cruz got a major advantage there. And the born again/evos were 64% of those polled. That's going to affect candidate tactics going forward; not all, but a significant number of the early primaries will be in states with a significant born again/evo proportion in the population. Despite the blandishments of Jerry Falwell Jr and others, I was somewhat sceptical about Trump's credentials with that sub-group.

On the Democratic side, the age divide difference is particularly striking. Sanders could get a bandwagon going if he can really mobilise the young voters in the earlier primaries. It looks like the "outsider" effect is going to feature strongly this time as well.

Hillary may be very relieved by her very narrow (and still provisional?) victory, but she's looking rather less of a shoo-in today. Some pretty clear battle-lines have emerged.

Early days of course, but perhaps it is going to be a competitive battle in both parties.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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beatmenace
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Hillary knew that stock of double-headed coins would come in useful one day.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/iowa-caucus-hillary-clinton-wins-six-delegates-by-coin-toss-a68 48126.html

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"I'm the village idiot , aspiring to great things." (The Icicle Works)

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simontoad
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Frankie Boyle on Facebook: Looks like Donald Trump was just America trolling the rest of the world.

I reckon he's had that joke in his pocket for months, and figures now is the best time to whip it out. Trump could recover next week, after all.

We'll take your gun conservatives for the Festival of Democracy Downunder. Their ain't no right to bear arms here, and we will make them watch their guns getting crushed.

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Human

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David Goode
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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
Saw one prediction that Clinton could win the % vote, but Sanders could end up with more delegates (21 to 19). That would be interesting!

Did something similar not happen in your election in 2000, with Al Gore getting more than half a million more people voting for him than George W Bush, but Bush won?
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LeRoc

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quote:
David Goode: Did something similar not happen in your election in 2000, with Al Gore getting more than half a million more people voting for him than George W Bush, but Bush won?
No, what happened in the US election in 2000 was that Al Gore got more than half a million more people voting for him than George W Bush, but a tribunal illegally ceded the Florida result — and thereby the election — to Bush.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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David Goode
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quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
David Goode: Did something similar not happen in your election in 2000, with Al Gore getting more than half a million more people voting for him than George W Bush, but Bush won?
No, what happened in the US election in 2000 was that Al Gore got more than half a million more people voting for him than George W Bush, but a tribunal illegally ceded the Florida result — and thereby the election — to Bush.
Ah, right. Thanks. I recall at the time there was something fishy about it.
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beatmenace
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I've just seen Ted Cruz's CV - this is even worse as Trump being in the race has made him look like a credible candidate.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/ted-cruz-who-is-the-republican-us-senator-who-defeated-donald-trump-in-iowa- and-what-are-his-a6848166.html

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"I'm the village idiot , aspiring to great things." (The Icicle Works)

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Pigwidgeon

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quote:
Originally posted by David Goode:
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
David Goode: Did something similar not happen in your election in 2000, with Al Gore getting more than half a million more people voting for him than George W Bush, but Bush won?
No, what happened in the US election in 2000 was that Al Gore got more than half a million more people voting for him than George W Bush, but a tribunal illegally ceded the Florida result — and thereby the election — to Bush.
Ah, right. Thanks. I recall at the time there was something fishy about it.
There was a lot fishy about it. Remember who the Governor of Florida was at the time?

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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Brenda Clough
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I agree that Cruz would be a disaster, but Trump would be a train wreck of Hitlerian proportions.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
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Those 538 exit polls are fascinating.

On the Democrat side, it's amazing how strong a determinant age of voter was in determining the Clinton/Sanders breakdown, hugely outweighing anything else.

On the Republican side, the most interesting thing was how little age and race mattered - the three front runners were fairly evenly matched across the board.

One striking discriminator was the "On most political matters, do you consider yourself..." which gave:

Very conservative: Strong lead for Cruz
Somewhat conservative: Strong lead for Rubio
Moderate: Strong lead for Trump

The other striking question was "Reason for voting for:"

Can win in November: Strong lead for Rubio
Shares my values: Strong lead for Cruz
Tells it like it is: Strong lead for Trump

Rubio is my least unfavourite by a margin.

[ 02. February 2016, 14:20: Message edited by: TurquoiseTastic ]

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Those 538 exit polls are fascinating.

On the Democrat side, it's amazing how strong a determinant age of voter was in determining the Clinton/Sanders breakdown, hugely outweighing anything else.

On the Republican side, the most interesting thing was how little age and race mattered - the three front runners were fairly evenly matched across the board.

Can a statistically significant measure of the Republican breakdown by race even be made? According to CNN the voters in the Iowa Republican caucuses were 97% white. (The state of Iowa as a whole is 89% non-Hispanic white according to the 2010 census, so this isn't that far out from the general population.)

[ 02. February 2016, 15:19: Message edited by: Crœsos ]

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Barnabas62
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Sorry TurquoiseTastic

They were NBC exit polls. I misled you I think by my second sentence, which was an earlier "538" (i.e Nate Silver and friends) prediction.

I agree that the patterns are very different when comparing Democrat and GOP choices. I think some of those are going to "read over" to other state primaries, but some of it may be Iowa-only. Part of the fascination is state-by-state diversities. But I think the "outsider" perception and the conservative Christian effects are going to be persistent influences on candidates' behaviour.

(x-posted with Croesos, who makes a good point)

[ 02. February 2016, 15:24: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Pigwidgeon

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# 10192

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This is the best explanation I've seen of the Iowa caucuses, not just "for British people," but for confused Americans and anyone else befuddled by this process.

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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LeRoc

Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216

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quote:
beatmenace: Hillary knew that stock of double-headed coins would come in useful one day.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/iowa-caucus-hillary-clinton-wins-six-delegates-by-coin-toss-a68 48126.html

The internet is having a ball with this, suggesting alternative ways of breaking the tie. A staring contest perhaps?

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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TurquoiseTastic

Fish of a different color
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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
Those 538 exit polls are fascinating.

On the Democrat side, it's amazing how strong a determinant age of voter was in determining the Clinton/Sanders breakdown, hugely outweighing anything else.

On the Republican side, the most interesting thing was how little age and race mattered - the three front runners were fairly evenly matched across the board.

Can a statistically significant measure of the Republican breakdown by race even be made? According to CNN the voters in the Iowa Republican caucuses were 97% white. (The state of Iowa as a whole is 89% non-Hispanic white according to the 2010 census, so this isn't that far out from the general population.)
Indeed - you are quite right.
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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
This is the best explanation I've seen of the Iowa caucuses, not just "for British people," but for confused Americans and anyone else befuddled by this process.

That was hilarious!

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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David Goode
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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
This is the best explanation I've seen of the Iowa caucuses, not just "for British people," but for confused Americans and anyone else befuddled by this process.

Why would anyone want a voting system like that?!
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W Hyatt
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# 14250

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quote:
David Goode: Why would anyone want a voting system like that?!
Small, early states love it because it makes them more influential.

I hope you're not assuming most of us do want it (or the Electoral College). But that's very different than agreeing on how to change it.

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A new church and a new earth, with Spiritual Insights for Everyday Life.

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Barnabas62
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# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
This is the best explanation I've seen of the Iowa caucuses, not just "for British people," but for confused Americans and anyone else befuddled by this process.

[Killing me]

Now that's what I call proper education!

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Gramps49
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Problem with caucusing is it excludes those who have to work during the time of the event. Back in the olden days people got off work for it. No more.

I have gone to a few caucuses in the past. I kind of enjoyed them.

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Not

Ship's Quack
# 2166

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This lego one is even better!

(scroll halfway down page)

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Was CJ; now Not

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LeRoc

Famous Dutch pirate
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quote:
Not: This lego one is even better!

(scroll halfway down page)

That's actually rather helpful.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
This is the best explanation I've seen of the Iowa caucuses, not just "for British people," but for confused Americans and anyone else befuddled by this process.

Love it, especially this bit:

quote:
Chris Christie – New Jersey governor, troubled by a scandal over the time he shut down a bridge, which frankly pales in comparison to Ted Cruz’s shutting-shit-down achievements


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Human

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Nick Tamen

Ship's Wayfaring Fool
# 15164

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quote:
Originally posted by W Hyatt:
quote:
David Goode: Why would anyone want a voting system like that?!
Small, early states love it because it makes them more influential.

I hope you're not assuming most of us do want it (or the Electoral College). But that's very different than agreeing on how to change it.

And of course neither the caucuses nor the primaries are "elections" in the strict sense. They are processes for nominating party candidates.


Meanwhile, I guess I'll gear up for yet another presidential election where I'm one of the relative few defending the value of the Electoral College, at least in principle. [Hot and Hormonal]

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The first thing God says to Moses is, "Take off your shoes." We are on holy ground. Hard to believe, but the truest thing I know. — Anne Lamott

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Enoch
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# 14322

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quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Not: This lego one is even better!

(scroll halfway down page)

That's actually rather helpful.
That only explains how the Democrats do it. It doesn't explain how the Republicans do it.

Incidentally, to a foreigner, that process looks really odd. It also seems a denial of the whole idea that ballots are secret.

Perhaps our ways of doing these things do too from outside.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Pigwidgeon

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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Not: This lego one is even better!

(scroll halfway down page)

That's actually rather helpful.
That only explains how the Democrats do it. It doesn't explain how the Republicans do it.

Incidentally, to a foreigner, that process looks really odd. It also seems a denial of the whole idea that ballots are secret.

Perhaps our ways of doing these things do too from outside.

It looks odd to most Americans, too. I'm glad we don't do that in Arizona. (Finally! Something good about Arizona politics!)

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
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Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
W Hyatt
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quote:
Nick Tamen: Meanwhile, I guess I'll gear up for yet another presidential election where I'm one of the relative few defending the value of the Electoral College, at least in principle. [Hot and Hormonal]
Actually, I do think it has some value. A lot of people would like to eliminate it, but I think it did have an advantage in Bush vs. Gore. The general election per se didn't settle the matter from a legal point of view, the Electoral College did, and there was no dispute about who the Electoral College elected.

Gore may have actually gotten more individual votes, but if the legality of the results depended solely on the total count of votes, the results could have been in dispute for a long time, and may never have been fully resolved. As it was, the Electoral College clearly re-elected Bush as President and no one disputed that, from a constitutional perspective, Bush really was elected rather than Gore.

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A new church and a new earth, with Spiritual Insights for Everyday Life.

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
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quote:
Originally posted by W Hyatt:
As it was, the Electoral College clearly re-elected Bush as President and no one disputed that, from a constitutional perspective, Bush really was elected rather than Gore.

Baloney. The 5-4 Supreme Court decision to stop the Florida recount was and still is controversial from a constitutional perspective:
quote:
In Bush v. Gore, on the contrary, the Court actively prevented the completion of a halted state recount, never having ruled on the merits either of the challenge or the election and never having adjudicated the validity of Bush's certification or Gore's request for a recount. Instead, the Court selected the next President of the United States in the absence of a completed election—the ultimate political act. A meaningful remand in Bush v. Gore, or completing the election under the Court's own supervision, would have preserved the Constitution from this assault.
--Weinberg, Louise, in When Courts Decide Elections: The Constitutionality of Bush v. Gore, 82 Boston University Law Review 609 (2002), p. 33. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore#cite_note-46)


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W Hyatt
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Yes, you're right, and it definitely should be controversial because the Supreme Court should not have gotten involved (except maybe they should have required any recount to be unbiased).

As far as the general election goes, the controversy is about how many votes Bush and Gore each got in Florida, and no one actually knows the precise answer to that. But the controversy is over what the Electoral College results should have been, not over what they actually were. It's quite clear how many Electoral College votes they each ended up getting, and that the Electoral College actually did elect Bush. It may very well not have been the end result that reflected the popular vote, but the Electoral College vote itself was clear and legal.

Even if the process of selecting electors was constitutionally questionable, there was still no doubt about who they voted for.

[ 03. February 2016, 03:45: Message edited by: W Hyatt ]

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A new church and a new earth, with Spiritual Insights for Everyday Life.

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by W Hyatt:
It may very well not have been the end result that reflected the popular vote, but the Electoral College vote itself was clear and legal.

Even if the process of selecting electors was constitutionally questionable, there was still no doubt about who they voted for.

Sounds a bit like, "We cheated fair and square".

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Hallellou, hallellou

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by W Hyatt:
Even if the process of selecting electors was constitutionally questionable, there was still no doubt about who they voted for.

And that's a good thing why?

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
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quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
beatmenace: Hillary knew that stock of double-headed coins would come in useful one day.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/iowa-caucus-hillary-clinton-wins-six-delegates-by-coin-toss-a68 48126.html

The internet is having a ball with this, suggesting alternative ways of breaking the tie. A staring contest perhaps?
Thumb-wrestling is the only fair way.

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W Hyatt
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Well, more like "They cheated fair and square" since I voted for Gore. But some countries have experienced riots and civil war because of claims that the election results were tampered with, leading to disputes about who was legally the new president. However, as much as I disagreed with the result in this country, I had to agree that the Electoral College vote was the one that mattered from a legal point of view. Gore did not file any law suit challenging those results, and by refraining from doing so, he removed the possibility of anyone claiming that he was legally and actually the President.

It may not be a great system, but it has had its advantages.

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A new church and a new earth, with Spiritual Insights for Everyday Life.

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
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At this point, returning to the current presidential race for a second, I am becoming sick-to-the-teeth of Hil supporters screaming "SEXISM!" every time anyone dares to criticize Clinton. Gaaaah. Give it a rest.

[ 03. February 2016, 04:01: Message edited by: mousethief ]

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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W Hyatt
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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by W Hyatt:
Even if the process of selecting electors was constitutionally questionable, there was still no doubt about who they voted for.

And that's a good thing why?
As I said, it may not be a great system, and I'm not necessarily advocating for keeping it. I'm just pointing out that as a small counter-weight to any problems that are weighing it down, it seems to me that it has at least one small advantage by allowing for a result that is less vulnerable to legal challenges.

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A new church and a new earth, with Spiritual Insights for Everyday Life.

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Nick Tamen:
Meanwhile, I guess I'll gear up for yet another presidential election where I'm one of the relative few defending the value of the Electoral College, at least in principle.

The electoral college thread from four years ago, for those interested in the topic. The basic issues involved in the institution haven't changed much since then.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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