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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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quote:
Originally posted by The Riv:
There's way, way too much hand wringing re: Donald Trump. This has always been Hillary's election -- an elevation, really. Enjoy that. 1st female POTUS. Ok.

I'd tone down the inevitability dial a few notches, but I'm on this page right now. I think if I was an American, I'd be phoning the Sanders people and asking them to scratch my name of the list of volunteers, and then phoning Hilary's people and ask whether she's taking applications for interns yet. Then I'd start pumping iron. My Pecs have potential but my abs are a disaster.

Actually, I reckon I could go for an interns job even if I'm not American. I'll just attach a photo of Crocodile Dundee to my application.

[ 29. February 2016, 22:55: Message edited by: simontoad ]

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Human

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by The Riv:
Don't ask Hillary about former Klansman and US Sen. Robert Byrd, though. [Roll Eyes]

One gets so fucking sick of people dragging out pre-Southern-strategy racist Democrats as if it prove ANY FUCKING THING AT ALL about the current Democratic Party.

No. The KKK-level racists have nearly all left. To the GOP.

Get over it.

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Barnabas62
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saysay, you make a good point. My own assessment is that folks are generally pissed off with both political spin and media manipulation. If your life is tough and there's not much social support, you can get very put off by such games, feel very angry. But I think the penny will drop that Trump is just a game-player as well. That false hair will do for him in the end.

Not something to get complacent about though. You're right about that. The risk of a double-louse in the White House is still there.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by saysay:
Quite a lot of the reaction I'm seeing isn't about the KKK and whether or not Trump is or is not a racist - it's a reaction to the media and Trump's refusal to play their constant gotcha game.

When you say "isn't about the KKK" or racism I think you mean "chooses to ignore the issue". It is pretty clear that Trump is very slippery on the issue, saying at one time he knows who Duke is, later on he doesn't know, and then he didn't disavow him because of an earpiece. That isn't "refusal to play gotcha" that is just being slippery and disingenuous.

A refusal to play gotcha would be better done by simply stating "I'm not a racist but I'm not responsible for whoever decides to endorse me on social media and I'm not going through a list on them." And then standing by that rather than excusing oneself implausibly over a dodgy earpiece later.

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lilBuddha
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Trump was caught out. He didn't know what to say, and plead ignorance. Kinda puts paid the rubbish that he simply speaks his mind. But, he won't lose supporters as reason overly present in their following him.

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Crœsos
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So today is Super Tuesday in the U.S., so-called because its the date on which the largest number of Presidential primary delegates are at stake.

The Republicans are primarying/caucusing in eleven states* (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia). So far, the only state where polling indicates a victory by someone other than Trump is Texas, where Ted Cruz is the expected (though not certain) winner. Trump is polling as the leader in five states (Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, and Virginia). In the remaining five states there hasn't been recent enough polling to know anything about the current state of play.

After today, ~29% of the delegates to the Republican National Convention will have been determined. Not enough to give any candidate a mathematical victory, but potentially enough to give a candidate a lead sufficient enough to be seen as insurmountable by rivals.

The Democrats are primarying/caucusing in eleven states (Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia) and one overseas American possession (American Samoa). Bernie Sanders is polling far ahead in Vermont and no recent polls exist for Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, or American Samoa. Clinton is the poll leader in the eight remaining states.

After today, ~25% of the pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention will have been determined, or ~21% of all delegates when you factor in unpledged delegates (a.k.a. "superdelegates").


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*Republican precinct caucuses are also being held in Colorado, but those are only to decide delegates to the County Assemblies, which will decide the delegates to the District and State Conventions. No method exists for conveying the presidential preferences of voters at the precinct caucuses.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Brenda Clough
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I live in an open-primary state. I just walked in and voted in the Republican primary. Nobody looked out into the parking lot to see the Obama sticker on my car. Nor will anybody doublecheck what I do, in November.

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TurquoiseTastic

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And whom did you vote for - or would you rather not say?
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Brenda Clough
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Donald Trump, charmer that he is, threatened to file suit to keep the primary in this state open. I believe the delusion was that Democrats would cross over and vote for him. Instead a concerted "anybody but Trump" movement is in train, and since Hillary has a lock on this state I went and voted for Rubio. Alas, I don't believe he will win and I have probably thrown my primary vote away. But in November it will be a different tale.

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Brenda Clough
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Another cogent commentator you will probably not have seen.

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Huia
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Brenda, thanks for that link.

As an outsider I miss many of the nuances of the arguments but I found it interesting never the less.

Huia

edited because spaces between word are a Good Thing

[ 02. March 2016, 03:49: Message edited by: Huia ]

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Charity gives food from the table, Justice gives a place at the table.

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Golden Key
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Thanks to everyone who's posted links. Some good stuff there.

Something occurred to me, re Gov. Christie endorsing Trump: Is he hoping to be vice-president?

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Thanks to everyone who's posted links. Some good stuff there.

Something occurred to me, re Gov. Christie endorsing Trump: Is he hoping to be vice-president?

Probably not. It's a thankless job. I've heard speculation that Christie is angling to be President Trump's Attorney General, though.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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LeRoc

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There is a lot of fun stuff going on about the way Christie was standing behind Trump.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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mdijon
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Plenty of overtime options are likely in that position.

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Brenda Clough
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The best tweet I have seen is "Christie must want to be Attorney General really really really really really really bad."

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stonespring
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It seemed very odd that a man known for his stage presence (Christie) could not even seem to pretend to like the man he has endorsed.
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Mamacita

Lakefront liberal
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Great link, LeRoc. Very funny stuff.

The Christie/Trump honeymoon was over before it started. Two days ago, an open mic captured Trump telling Christie to go home. I imagine Christie feels like he's being used, but wow, what bad judgment on his part, thinking he could get some kind of advantage out of this. And now he knows.

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Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world’s grief. Do justly, now. Love mercy, now. Walk humbly, now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.

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Amanda B. Reckondwythe

Dressed for Church
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Christie has learned, as if he didn't already know, that when you're dealing with the biggest ego in the world, no one else exists except to inflate that ego.

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Brenda Clough
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Christie is now toast; not only shall he never again win an election in his home state, but six New Jersey newspapers have called upon him to resign. His only hope is a President Trump naming him to some office or another. He may hope for the Cabinet. He would probably accept ambassador to Sierra Leone.

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Lyda*Rose

Ship's broken porthole
# 4544

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If Trump wins the presidential election, anyone who needs me for the next four years will find me under my duvet playing endless rounds of Bookworm and eating moose munch. [Ultra confused]

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"Dear God, whose name I do not know - thank you for my life. I forgot how BIG... thank you. Thank you for my life." ~from Joe Vs the Volcano

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by Lyda*Rose:
If Trump wins the presidential election, anyone who needs me for the next four years will find me under my duvet playing endless rounds of Bookworm and eating moose munch. [Ultra confused]

Seriously. Worrying about what happens to Christie in a Trump administration is akin to fretting over mismatched table linens on the Titanic.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Instead a concerted "anybody but Trump" movement is in train,

You know, I think I'd probably vote for Trump over Cruz. I find the idea of either man becoming President horrifying, but I suspect Cruz might be worse.

Of course, I don't get a vote - I just live here.

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lilBuddha
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I was thinking the same thing, LC. Trump would likely have difficulty with Republicans and Democrats. Cruz, as much as his fellows seem to dislike him on a personal level, is one of them.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Brenda Clough
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Carson is dropping out. God told him to run; next time he'll remember to wait until God tells him he'll -win-.

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Brenda Clough
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Oh, and this is very funny indeed. Post columnist Alexandra Petri explains the full horror of Chris Christie's plight.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Carson is dropping out. God told him to run; next time he'll remember to wait until God tells him he'll -win-.

To quote myself, "if God tells you to run in the Republican presidential primaries He's probably just doing it for the lulz"

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
I was thinking the same thing, LC. Trump would likely have difficulty with Republicans and Democrats. Cruz, as much as his fellows seem to dislike him on a personal level, is one of them.

Yes. In many ways (perhaps intentionally, or is that just me being paranoid? [Ultra confused] ) Trump is the rodeo clown distracting the media and the voters away from Cruz's only slightly less sociopathic positions. The real danger is that Cruz might look sane or reasonable when he's standing next to Trump.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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stonespring
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On TV someone was saying today that having multiple opponents to Trump in the GOP primary was actually helping take votes away from Trump so it is better than just having one anti-Trump candidate. That sounds ridiculous. If Rubio were the only other candidate (not that I remotely support Rubio or any of the GOP candidates) I think Trump would have a much harder time getting the nomination.
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LeRoc

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One thing I've been thinking about: I think it's easier for Trump to do his spiel in a chaotic debate with many candidates.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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moonlitdoor
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I don't know how accurate an impression one gets from outside America, but my feeling is that what Ted Cruz says is, like with other normal politicians, a reasonable approximation of what he would try to do.

Donald Trump though seems to me to be making up what he says as he goes along, and how closely it relates to what he would actually do if elected is not clear to me. It wouldn't surprise me if he hasn't even given much thought yet to what he would in fact do. That strikes me as very unusual, I am struggling to think of a parallel.

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We've evolved to being strange monkeys, but in the next life he'll help us be something more worthwhile - Gwai

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LeRoc

Famous Dutch pirate
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The part of running the race without knowing what he wants to do if he wins reminds me rather a lot of Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands.

[ 02. March 2016, 20:48: Message edited by: LeRoc ]

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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Brenda Clough
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Wlhen the pundits say that politics is broken, that is what they are referring to. When a candidate says anything, without any relation to what he will actually do (some of the stuff he says is actually impossible of achievement) then all discourse is impossible. It is the vaunted Sin against the Holy Spirit. Once the meaning has been kicked out from under the language there's nowhere to go.

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
On TV someone was saying today that having multiple opponents to Trump in the GOP primary was actually helping take votes away from Trump so it is better than just having one anti-Trump candidate. That sounds ridiculous.

It is ridiculous. The Republican primary system is heavily weighted to favor the frontrunner. In some states any candidate getting less than 20% of the vote gets no delegates. You can see the problems that would cause if the ~60% of Republican voters who don't favor Trump is split among four candidates.

Fun fact: Donald Trump has yet to win an outright majority in any state holding a Republican primary or caucus. He came close in Massachusetts (49%), but didn't quite make it.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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moonlitdoor--

IME, US politicians, at all levels, frequently say whatever they think will get them elected. Sometimes, they do say what they really want to do. But there isn't any guarantee what they will/can do, if elected.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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HCH
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Someone (I can't remember who) was asking if there are any human vices or weaknesses not exhibited by Mr. Trump. I thought of one: he is not lacking in self-confidence.
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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My wife read me a NY Times editorial in which Christie was said to be angling for the position of Transportation Secretary in a Trump Cabinet.

Oh, I laughed so hard.

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Human

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
My wife read me a NY Times editorial in which Christie was said to be angling for the position of Transportation Secretary in a Trump Cabinet.

Oh, I laughed so hard.

The irony would be totally lost on Trump. But he would, I imagine, find nothing but admiration for Christie's ability to find ways to use any job, no matter how mundane, as first and foremost and opportunity to stick it to your enemies.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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The National Review (a leading conservative publication) is fun reading today, with these headlines:
  • Why I Changed My Mind and Joined the #NeverTrump Movement
  • For Trump Supporters, a Reckoning Is at Hand
  • Super Tuesday Leaves GOP Two Endgames: Trump Nomination or Contested Convention
  • Voters Are Discovering What One BBC Journalist Learned Decades Ago: Donald Trump Is a Sexist Bully


[ 03. March 2016, 00:20: Message edited by: RuthW ]

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Amanda B. Reckondwythe

Dressed for Church
# 5521

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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
The real danger is that Cruz might look sane or reasonable when he's standing next to Trump.

Whatever happened to the voice crying in the wilderness: "Cruz is not eligible because he is not a natural born citizen."

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"I take prayer too seriously to use it as an excuse for avoiding work and responsibility." -- The Revd Martin Luther King Jr.

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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Re anti-Trump voices at "National Review":

Wow. The irony. I wonder if they'll lose their jobs.

Back when Obama first ran, Christopher Buckley, son of NR founder William F. Buckley, Jr., wrote an article at the "Daily Beast": "Sorry, Dad, I'm Voting for Obama".

NR fired him.

If you do a Web search on "Trump Christopher Buckley", you'll find lots of interesting stuff. Particularly, that 16 years ago, CB wrote a humorous article about Trump becoming president.

"Coming to terms with Trump is like an early-stage cancer diagnosis: Sixteen years ago I wrote Donald Trump’s inaugural address, as a joke. It’s not a joke any more."

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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quote:
Originally posted by Amanda B. Reckondwythe:
quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
The real danger is that Cruz might look sane or reasonable when he's standing next to Trump.

Whatever happened to the voice crying in the wilderness: "Cruz is not eligible because he is not a natural born citizen."
Yeah I don't understand that, mostly because I haven't appraised myself of the facts. Why can't Arnie be parachuted in? I understand he did a great job as The Gubernator. Please understand that I have not appraised myself of the facts, but heard something about CA renewables yesterday.

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Human

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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468

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simontoad--

I have a hard time knowing whether you're serious or sarcastic. In case you're serious:

The Arnold can't be president, because he wasn't born a citizen. (Some bozos in Congress wanted to change the law, so that he could run. Fortunately, that didn't get very far.)

As to his time governing my state: the kindest thing I can say is that opinions vary, and mine are very negative.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I understand he did a great job as The Gubernator.

[Killing me]

I thinking apprising yourself of the facts might be warranted at this point.

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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Schwarzenegger did have some good ideas. His climate change policy was forward-thinking, and his proposal to get rid of a bunch of the paid state commissions that do precisely nothing was a good one. But all in all, his election and re-election were not exactly California's finest hours.
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Prester John
Shipmate
# 5502

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The DMV became much more efficient under his administration.
Posts: 884 | From: SF Bay Area | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468

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Re Trump:

Albright: World 'looking at us as if we’ve lost our minds'

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
Lyda*Rose

Ship's broken porthole
# 4544

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quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Re anti-Trump voices at "National Review":

Wow. The irony. I wonder if they'll lose their jobs.

Back when Obama first ran, Christopher Buckley, son of NR founder William F. Buckley, Jr., wrote an article at the "Daily Beast": "Sorry, Dad, I'm Voting for Obama".

NR fired him.

If you do a Web search on "Trump Christopher Buckley", you'll find lots of interesting stuff. Particularly, that 16 years ago, CB wrote a humorous article about Trump becoming president.

"Coming to terms with Trump is like an early-stage cancer diagnosis: Sixteen years ago I wrote Donald Trump’s inaugural address, as a joke. It’s not a joke any more."

My favorite line from the second article:
quote:
But then, conservatives have always had a bit of trouble with the concept of diversity. The GOP likes to say it’s a big-tent. Looks more like a yurt to me.


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"Dear God, whose name I do not know - thank you for my life. I forgot how BIG... thank you. Thank you for my life." ~from Joe Vs the Volcano

Posts: 21377 | From: CA | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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I see that the 2016 Republican National Convention is to be held in the Quicken Loans Arena, in Cleveland. I should think the advance planners are having kittens at present.

At long last, and maybe too late, the anti-Trump opinion within the GOP seems to becoming both more vocal and more purposeful. But I'm not sure that "unite behind Cruz" is going to be much of a rallying cry. Too little, too late? Maybe not? The next few weeks could be verry interresting. And also stoopid.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688

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I think a more rational human being than Trump would have figured out that he’s in way over his head, and have the good sense to be alarmed. His grandiose ego is telling him that if he actually got elected he’d get the job all sorted by the sheer amazingness of his person, but in truth I don’t think he has a clue how he practically would go about running the country.

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Rent my holiday home in the South of France

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