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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
I was just cruising you-tube and I've come across the answer to America's Trump problem. Get Glen Campbell to run as an independent and split the working class republican vote. Wichita Lineman
[ 28. March 2016, 01:46: Message edited by: simontoad ]
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I was just cruising you-tube and I've come across the answer to America's Trump problem. Get Glen Campbell to run as an independent and split the working class republican vote. Wichita Lineman
You do realize that Glen Campbell is in no shape to run?
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
Once again, here is the current standing of the delegate count, and a link to the last iteration of this count.
On the Republican side the delegate breakdown looks like this:
- Trump 750
- Cruz 466
- Various Withdrawn Candidates 191
- Kasich 146
- Unassigned 43
Both Trump and Cruz can still mathematically win enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot, though only Trump is realistically in that position.
Donald Trump needs to accumulate 487 delegates to gain a majority, or about 53% of all delegates as yet unassigned. He gathered about 52% of the delegates from post-March 15 caucuses and primaries, so he's more or less on track, albeit with a razor thin margin of error assuming he keeps up the same margin.
Ted Cruz needs 771 delegates to win outright. This means he'd need to win ~84% of all remaining delegates. With winner-take-all contests this is theoretically possible but Cruz would have to start winning a lot more consistently than he has been.
On the Democratic side the race looks like this:
- Clinton 1,270 (+471)
- Sanders 1,034 (+29.5*)
- O'Malley 0 (+1)
The numbers in parentheses represent the number of unpledged (or "super") delegates declaring support for each candidate. Hillary Clinton has ~73% of the delegates needed to secure her party's nomination (2,384) if you include superdelegates in her total, or ~53% of the way there without relying on superdelegates. Clinton would need to gain 37% of the remaining pledged delegates, combined with her already assigned delegates and the superdelegates who have declared in her favor, in order to win the Democratic nomination. Sanders needs to win ~76% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to win, or get some of the remaining 213.5* superdelegates to come over to his side. He's been steadily whittling away at Clinton's lead since March 15 (the high water mark for Clinton's delegate lead to date), but it's uncertain if he's doing it fast enough. He needs to close the gap before the delegates run out.
There are no more primaries or caucuses until early April, so the totals will stand where they are until next week, unless some of those unassigned delegates get assigned or more superdelegates declare for a candidate.
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*Superdelegates from the Democrats Abroad caucus count as half a vote at convention, which is why there are half-votes in some of these totals.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
Recently on Facebook a statement has been going round, saying NONE of Sanders' other Democratic Senators have endorsed him. Does anyone know if this statement is true and, if so, significant? From my perspective it doesn't sound good. (Posting as an ignorant Brit, who finds this thread fascinating and informative.)
In US politics, if you are in the House or Senate you have much more freedom to vote against party leadership than an MP in most other countries. However, you are expected to support the incumbent president if s/he is from your party and your party's nominee for president, and even if the nominee has not been decided yet, you probably have much more freedom in how you vote in Congress than in who you endorse for the presidential nomination (in terms of how it will affect your political career). One reason for this is that not much has been getting passed in Congress for quite some time.
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
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molopata
The Ship's jack
# 9933
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
Ted Cruz needs 771 delegates to win outright. This means he'd need to win ~84% of all remaining delegates. With winner-take-all contests this is theoretically possible but Cruz would have to start winning a lot more consistently than he has been.
Crœsos, many thanks for the update on the standings. A technical question which you or someone else might be able to answer: What's the background behind this winner-takes-all approach to the distribution of states' seats? It is used both in the primaries/causes and then again for most of the states in the actual election. While it might be more decisive when looking for a candidate, the idea of winning California on a single vote and then sending every electoral college seat in the seat to represent the winning party strikes me as being unnecessarily undemocratic.
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... The Respectable
Posts: 1718 | From: the abode of my w@ndering mind | Registered: Aug 2005
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by molopata:
Crœsos, many thanks for the update on the standings. A technical question which you or someone else might be able to answer: What's the background behind this winner-takes-all approach to the distribution of states' seats? It is used both in the primaries/causes and then again for most of the states in the actual election. While it might be more decisive when looking for a candidate, the idea of winning California on a single vote and then sending every electoral college seat in the seat to represent the winning party strikes me as being unnecessarily undemocratic.
On the Republican side the winner-take-all primaries and caucuses are supposed to allow the party to consolidate behind the frontrunner. Recognizing the danger of a few early victories giving an unelectable oddball the momentum to capture the nomination, the Republican National Committee decided that no state could have a winner-take-all primary before a certain date. (This year it was March 15.) So states can either increase their influence by going early, helping to weed out the weakest candidates, or they could go later and be decisive by doling out all their delegates in one big glob. (That is the proper collective noun for delegates, or at least it should be. A murder of crows, a parliament of owls, a glob of delegates.) Of the 17 remaining Republican primaries and caucuses, all but five are winner-take-all or winner-take-most contests. In other words, it's supposed to avoid the situation where the party arrives at convention and no candidate controls a majority of delegates. Ironically there are now several factions within the Republican party now trying to engineer exactly this outcome. We'll have to see if they can derail the system of their own design.
On the Democratic side all primaries and caucuses are proportional, so just beating your opponent by a little doesn't really advance your cause that much. You have to win big to increase your lead.
The winner-take-all allocation of electoral votes by states is mostly an effort for each state to increase its electoral strength relative to the other states. Whoever wins a state gets all of its electoral votes making the each state a larger prize. Since all the states (except Maine and Nebraska) do this it's kind of a Red Queen's race, running as fast as you can to end up where you started.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
Sorry to hear about Glen Campbell.
What about Billy Joel
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I was just cruising you-tube and I've come across the answer to America's Trump problem. Get Glen Campbell to run as an independent and split the working class republican vote. Wichita Lineman
You do realize that Glen Campbell is in no shape to run?
Didn't stop Reagan
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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molopata
The Ship's jack
# 9933
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
On the Republican side the winner-take-all primaries and caucuses [...]
Again, thank you for walking me through this: I very much appreciate it! ![[Smile]](smile.gif)
The American system does appear to have a lot of strong points, but as in every system, people and organisations eventually find ways to pervert it. Currently, there is a build-up of unaddressed problems which urgently need addressing (the Germans would use the term "Reformstau") and which won't be sorted until the various sides work out that politics should be more than a zero-sum game between two antagonistic parties.
Meanwhile, whatever the individual parties come up with to prevent the likes of a Trump (or for that matter a Sanders) breaking into the usual course of party political discourse, will be howled at for being an undemocratic party-insider stitch-up. That won't make meaningful reform any easier.
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... The Respectable
Posts: 1718 | From: the abode of my w@ndering mind | Registered: Aug 2005
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romanlion
editorial comment
# 10325
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by molopata:
...politics should be more than a zero-sum game between two antagonistic parties.
That isn't what we have in the US.
We have a ruling class who have successfully convinced a majority of (not the brightest) voters that we have two antagonistic parties.
Brilliant, really.
Posts: 1486 | From: White Rose City | Registered: Sep 2005
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Sober Preacher's Kid
Presbymethegationalist
# 12699
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Posted
![[Paranoid]](graemlins/paranoid.gif)
Who put the Lefty Syrup in your corn flakes?
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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.
Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007
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mdijon
Shipmate
# 8520
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by molopata:
won't be sorted until the various sides work out that politics should be more than a zero-sum game between two antagonistic parties.
I think it was Yusuf Islam (ex Cat Stevens) who said about the nascent Egyptian democracy that the biggest challenge they faced was that democracy was not simply holding an election and having a winning party. After winning a party then has to build a consensus where the losers have some stake in the state.
It's not possible to turn the other side around and make them party members, and clearly some people will always be horribly disaffected no matter what you do, but you need a substantial portion of the losing side to not feel totally disaffected and marginalized or you are simply setting up a drawn out war of sub-cultures within a population that is doomed to come crashing down.
He was prescient regarding Egypt because that does appear to be what happened. The Islamists won, and then governed without building any consensus from any part of the more liberal groups. And it didn't work. (And now has gone back to military dictatorship).
It is worrying that there are some more mature democracies who appear to be developing a similar vulnerability.
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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon
Posts: 12277 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2004
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I think it was Yusuf Islam (ex Cat Stevens) who said about the nascent Egyptian democracy that the biggest challenge they faced was that democracy was not simply holding an election and having a winning party. After winning a party then has to build a consensus where the losers have some stake in the state.
It's not possible to turn the other side around and make them party members, and clearly some people will always be horribly disaffected no matter what you do, but you need a substantial portion of the losing side to not feel totally disaffected and marginalized or you are simply setting up a drawn out war of sub-cultures within a population that is doomed to come crashing down.
He was prescient regarding Egypt because that does appear to be what happened. The Islamists won, and then governed without building any consensus from any part of the more liberal groups. And it didn't work. (And now has gone back to military dictatorship).
It is worrying that there are some more mature democracies who appear to be developing a similar vulnerability.
That's so good it gets two of these.
![[Overused]](graemlins/notworthy.gif)
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
It is worrying that there are some more mature democracies who appear to be developing a similar vulnerability.
Apparently Singapore toyed at one point with the idea of splitting up its massively dominant ruling party into an "A team" and a "B team" in the hope of creating some plurality...
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Honest Ron Bacardi
Shipmate
# 38
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Posted
mdijon wrote quote:
It is worrying that there are some more mature democracies who appear to be developing a similar vulnerability.
Exactly.
I suppose it is possible to stoke up division where there was none before, even. Divide and rule has always been a useful tool.
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Anglo-Cthulhic
Posts: 4857 | From: the corridors of Pah! | Registered: May 2001
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
mdijon: It is worrying that there are some more mature democracies who appear to be developing a similar vulnerability.
I often feel that this is an inherent weakness of representative democracy.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
If representative democracies have a drawback it is that so many don't want to be represented. In the UK turn out at general elections is just over 60% while for presidential elections in the US I believe turnout is about 50%.
Then again, when one looks at the methods used by parties to select and then in elections, one shouldn't be surprised at the public's lack of engagement.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
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Posted
50% (60% in a truly exceptional year) voter turnout in the US is about as high as it gets nowadays, and only for presidential elections. Presidential elections are every 4 years, House elections are every 2 years, and one Third of the senate is elected every 2 years. The congressional elections that occur between presidential elections get about half of the voter turnout of the presidential elections (so about 25-30%), and this usually benefits conservative candidates since the people who turn out to vote in every election rain or shine tend to be elderly and more conservative. We also have local elections on odd numbered years and all kinds of state and local elections that happen in months other than November, and these are lucky if they get 20% turnout. Frankly, they are lucky in some places if even 20% of people even know that the election is happening.
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
Frankly, they are lucky in some places if even 20% of people even know that the election is happening.
How can they be unaware when they get dozens of fliers left at their door and are inundated with robocalls?
![[Mad]](angryfire.gif)
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Carex
Shipmate
# 9643
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Posted
An interesting discussion on the www.FiveThirtyEight.com podcast last night: Bernie does better than expected in states that have Democratic party caucuses, but not as well in states that have actual primary elections. The thought is that the Bernie supporters are more enthused and likely to attend caucuses (which can be a grueling experience) than the average Hillary supporter (especially older people and minorities), but the turnout is more even in an election.
Posts: 1425 | Registered: Jun 2005
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
We have a municipal election coming up April 12. At the last one, in 2014, turn-out was 14.2% of registered voters -- 40,589 people in a city with over 450,000 residents, 285,029 of whom are registered voters. City council members in the districts are elected with just a few thousand votes. When people say their vote doesn't matter, I just laugh.
In the California primaries, I really don't know what I'm going to do. I've been thinking of registering as a Republican so I can vote in that primary, but it's possible the Democratic nomination won't be sewn up, which makes a vote for Sanders more than a token gesture. Hmmm ...
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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Amanda B. Reckondwythe
Dressed for Church
# 5521
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
Frankly, they are lucky in some places if even 20% of people even know that the election is happening.
How can they be unaware when they get dozens of fliers left at their door and are inundated with robocalls?
And they can't turn on the TV without hearing about Trump, Trump, Trump.
Personally I hang up on robocalls and take the fliers directly to my "second mailbox" (the trash bin) without even looking at them.
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"I take prayer too seriously to use it as an excuse for avoiding work and responsibility." -- The Revd Martin Luther King Jr.
Posts: 10542 | From: The Great Southwest | Registered: Feb 2004
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Trump is now calling for women who have illegal abortions to be punished, I don't think he really wants to be president.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
Apparently Marco Rubio still wants influence at the convention.
quote:
When presidential candidates suspend their campaigns, typically their delegates become free to support the candidate of their own choosing at the convention. Rubio, however, has quietly been reaching out to party officials with a different approach.
He is personally asking state parties in 21 states and territories to refrain from releasing any of the 172 delegates he won while campaigning this year, MSNBC has learned.
Rubio sent a signed letter to the Chair of the Alaska Republican Party requesting the five delegates he won in that state "remain bound to vote for me" at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July.
Rubio copied National Chairman Reince Preibus on the letter - and sent the same request to all 21 states and territories where he won delegates, a source working for Rubio confirmed.
Aside from noting that Rubio thinks he was campaigning for President of the Untied States of America, this seems to indicate that the knives are out and rather than the four day infomercial we've come to expect the Republican National Convention has the potential to be rather interesting.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Honest Ron Bacardi
Shipmate
# 38
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Posted
Interesting hour on Trump's progress over here tonight on Ch.4. with Matt Frei. But some threats of civil mayhem being uttered by his supporters if he is stymied at any point. Is this realistic in any meaningful way?
(Whilst noting that Cleveland has apparently just taken delivery of a load of new anti-riot gear).
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Anglo-Cthulhic
Posts: 4857 | From: the corridors of Pah! | Registered: May 2001
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RuthW
liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Honest Ron Bacardi:
Interesting hour on Trump's progress over here tonight on Ch.4. with Matt Frei. But some threats of civil mayhem being uttered by his supporters if he is stymied at any point. Is this realistic in any meaningful way?
Why wouldn't it be? There were riots in Chicago in 1968.
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
... this seems to indicate that the knives are out and rather than the four day infomercial we've come to expect the Republican National Convention has the potential to be rather interesting.
The New York Times is reporting that there are increasingly louder questions about whether the corporate donors expected to fund the Republican convention will come through.
quote:
Coca-Cola has already declined to match the $660,000 it provided to the 2012 Republican convention, donating only $75,000 to this year’s gathering and indicating that it does not plan to provide more.
Kent Landers, a Coca-Cola spokesman, declined to explain the reduction in support. But officials at the company are trying to quietly defuse a campaign organized by the civil rights advocacy group Color of Change, which says it has collected more than 100,000 signatures on a petition demanding that Coca-Cola, Google, Xerox and other companies decline to sponsor the convention. Donating to the event, the petition states, is akin to endorsing Mr. Trump’s “hateful and racist rhetoric.’’
“These companies have a choice right now, a history-making choice,” said Rashad Robinson, the executive director of Color of Change. “Once they start writing checks, they are essentially making a commitment to support the platform of somebody who has threatened riots at the convention. Do they want riots brought to us by Coca-Cola?”
Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
We have a municipal election coming up April 12. At the last one, in 2014, turn-out was 14.2% of registered voters -- 40,589 people in a city with over 450,000 residents, 285,029 of whom are registered voters. City council members in the districts are elected with just a few thousand votes. When people say their vote doesn't matter, I just laugh.
In my country, the police round non-voters up at gunpoint and force them to fill out a ballot. Voting is not formally compulsory in Australia, but since we don't have guns anymore, the government can make us do anything it wants. ![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)
Come on Donald Oh I swear Donald Trump at this moment you'd say anything. You'd wear a dress O Donald come confess if you thought that it'd get a vote. Donald come on oo-wa-yea Donald come on do wah Come on Donald, yeah come on donald puttin women in jail! (Tune to Come on Eileen in my head not used with permission).
What a schmuck.
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
If our votes didn't matter, people would not be trying so hard to fuck with them. Go forth, Americans!
Especially y'all women. Good women got spit on so you could give up a half hour at a polling station. Do it.
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
...so you could give up a half hour at a polling station. Do it.
More like five hours in this county in Arizona -- if they were lucky enough to find a place to park. (I voted by mail).
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
The require some people to vote by mail in my county. Just started in the midterm elections. Really puts my radar up.
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
If our votes didn't matter, people would not be trying so hard to fuck with them. Go forth, Americans!
Especially y'all women. Good women got spit on so you could give up a half hour at a polling station. Do it.
Yes, this is the answer, in fact, mandatory voting would be a huge step forward for the USA imo.
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Boogie--
It would probably backfire, big time. Americans don't like to be told what to do, especially by gov't. Laws are supposed to keep THOSE people over there in line, and help US.
So a lot of people would stay home, just to spite the gov't.
And even if people voted from home, with absentee ballots, their votes might not matter. The ballots might be purposely "lost" before getting to the registrar. Here in SF, ballot boxes have been known to wind up in the bay.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Trump is now calling for women who have illegal abortions to be punished, I don't think he really wants to be president.
I must admit to wondering, a few times, whether some of his more outrageous comments were deliberately designed to shoot himself in the foot. Trouble is, so far they seem to have had the reverse effect.
No such thing as bad publicity? Anyway, he appears to have retracted. Teflon Trump rides again?
[ 31. March 2016, 09:03: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
Being flippant for a moment, we went to see Batman vs Superman at the cinema last night. For a moment they seemed to me to be clearly playing the “Superman is an immigrant” angle. He’s an illegal immigrant, what’s more. I badly want someone should ask Trump if he plans to build a wall around Krypton and make the Kryptonians pay for it.
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
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TonyK
Host Emeritus
# 35
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Trump is now calling for women who have illegal abortions to be punished, <snip> No such thing as bad publicity? Anyway, he appears to have retracted. Teflon Trump rides again?
It reminds me of the famous Grouch Marx quotation:
'Those are my principles, and if you don't like them....
well, I have others'
Does the man have any realistic and consistent intentions, or is it all (as it appears) made up on the fly?
Edited to fix UBB errors
[ 31. March 2016, 11:15: Message edited by: TonyK ]
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Yours aye ... TonyK
Posts: 2717 | From: Gloucestershire | Registered: May 2001
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
I don't think that the things Trump says are really his principles, or policies that he wants. They're just part of his game. This includes saying things and retracting them.
[ 31. March 2016, 11:17: Message edited by: LeRoc ]
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Trump is now calling for women who have illegal abortions to be punished, I don't think he really wants to be president.
Don't you believe it. There are a lot of votes in that statement, and he knows it. He's only withdrawn it because the party managers have rapped his knuckles.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Sioni Sais: He's only withdrawn it because the party managers have rapped his knuckles.
I dont think he listens to the party managers. (And there are a lot of them who agree with this statement on abortion.)
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Trump is now calling for women who have illegal abortions to be punished, I don't think he really wants to be president.
Don't you believe it. There are a lot of votes in that statement, and he knows it. He's only withdrawn it because the party managers have rapped his knuckles.
Trump doesn't care what the party managers have to say, but this is consistent with his campaign so far. Say something outrageous. When called on it claim he didn't really say the outrageous thing and anyone saying he did is just The Media™ out to get him. As I've noted before, most of the success of his campaign comes from his willingness to say the quiet parts loud or, in as one blogger put it, "Trump Articulates Republican Position With Insufficient Dishonesty".
At any rate, just as Trump has demonstrated that there's still a home in the Republican party for white supremacy this will also demonstrate that there's room for those wanting to punish women for having abortions. This isn't exactly new. Republicans for years have been trying to punish women who have abortions by forcing them to have unnecessary transvaginal ultrasounds or dangerous and unnecessary drugs. Trump has simply cut to the chase with the promise of criminal punishments.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Sioni Sais: He's only withdrawn it because the party managers have rapped his knuckles.
I dont think he listens to the party managers. (And there are a lot of them who agree with this statement on abortion.)
While you are likely right about his attitude to Republic party managers, it is more likely that his own pollsters sent him a very quick tweet on the likely effect among Republican women voters. However, it might have been intended to wean away Cruzophiliac evangelicals for the nomination battle. Or it might have just emerged out of his head for no reason whatsoever-- he sends up dozens of trial balloons of this nature and, when one or two of them catch fire, he claims innate brilliance.
Posts: 6236 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
There are far smarter ways to encourage voting than at gunpoint.
The simplest way is to have a national lottery. They hand you a ticket as you leave the voting booth. The drawing is on the day after Election Day, the Wednesday evening. The prize is sufficiently large/sexy/numerous to turn everybody out. (This is the moment to get corporate sponsorship -- car manufacturers to donate a car, say. For the chance at a new Ford, you would vote, yes?) And it would be tons cheaper than finding and paying so many persons licensed to use guns.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Brenda Clough: There are far smarter ways to encourage voting than at gunpoint.
The simplest way is to have a national lottery. They hand you a ticket as you leave the voting booth. The drawing is on the day after Election Day, the Wednesday evening. The prize is
… to become the President.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Brenda Clough: There are far smarter ways to encourage voting than at gunpoint.
The simplest way is to have a national lottery. They hand you a ticket as you leave the voting booth. The drawing is on the day after Election Day, the Wednesday evening. The prize is
… to become the President.
That would scare off most people!
![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
It would embolden the poor crazy and egotistical as against just the rich crazy and egotistical.
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Trump is now calling for women who have illegal abortions to be punished, I don't think he really wants to be president.
I must admit to wondering, a few times, whether some of his more outrageous comments were deliberately designed to shoot himself in the foot. Trouble is, so far they seem to have had the reverse effect.
No such thing as bad publicity? Anyway, he appears to have retracted. Teflon Trump rides again?
OK if he wins the nomination, and this happens:
"Now that I have won the Republican nomination, I withdraw my campaign. My purpose in seeking presidency was to create a platform of the worst, most inhuman and oppressive policies promoted by the Teabag contingent, and to show you how awful they are. The fact that so many of you voted for me shows that America is in deep shit. Shame on all of you." (Mic drop)
... I would be first in line to pin a medal of honor on him.
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
OK if he wins the nomination, and this happens:
"Now that I have won the Republican nomination, I withdraw my campaign. My purpose in seeking presidency was to create a platform of the worst, most inhuman and oppressive policies promoted by the Teabag contingent, and to show you how awful they are. The fact that so many of you voted for me shows that America is in deep shit. Shame on all of you." (Mic drop)
... I would be first in line to pin a medal of honor on him.
If only!
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Carex
Shipmate
# 9643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
And even if people voted from home, with absentee ballots, their votes might not matter. The ballots might be purposely "lost" before getting to the registrar. Here in SF, ballot boxes have been known to wind up in the bay.
Voting-from-home is the standard here in Oregon, though we prefer to drop our ballots off in the collection box at the local library rather than returning them by mail. It actually works pretty well: I can check to see that my ballot has been received, and request a duplicate from the County Clerk if it hasn't. So far the incidence of fraud has been very low, and not for lack of checking. (The biggest problem seems to be coffee stains on the ballots as folks fill them out on the kitchen table.)
Posts: 1425 | Registered: Jun 2005
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
C.S.Lewis predicted Trump? I think the Post gives Trump too much credit. When one envisions a theology, one envisions an consistent and logical structure of thought. surely this is as far from The Donald's processes as heaven is from hell.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Soror Magna
Shipmate
# 9881
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
... And even if people voted from home, with absentee ballots, their votes might not matter. The ballots might be purposely "lost" before getting to the registrar. Here in SF, ballot boxes have been known to wind up in the bay.
Citation needed. Not because I'm trying to be argumentative, but "electoral fraud" has become very trendy, far out of proportion to the actual incidence of irregularities. For example, after every election, there is a huge to-do about one person voting in multiple states. Once these cases are examined, it turns out that there really are individuals with the same name - and sometimes even the same birthdate - as other individuals in other states. Well, duh. In a country with over 300 million people, that is going to happen. Other cases of "fraud" have turned out to be clerical errors by poll workers.
I'm now always very skeptical of claims of electoral "fraud", because they are used to justify restrictions on voters. Voter ID laws may make it harder for someone to impersonate another voter, but that is an incredibly rare occurrence. The end result of all this chatter about non-existent "fraud" is that hundreds of thousands of people are disenfranchised, yet these laws don't prevent any other forms of fraud e.g. tampering with voting machines or destroying voter registration records* or "purging" electoral rolls or mis-aligned butterfly ballots. Many states do not allow registration on election day, so if you registered in advance, and your registration was trashed, you won't know until you show up on election day and can't vote AND can't register to vote. In some states, you can't register before you turn 18, so if your birthday falls on Election Day, and there's no same-day registration, you're shit out of luck. That's all because of "fraud". Other states will allow you to cast a provisional ballot, but require those voters to go to the elections office after election day to "certify" or their votes won't be counted. Making people wait for hours and hours by limiting voting days and poll staff is another awesome way to discourage voting. As Al Sharpton puts it, the USA has gone from in-your-face Jim Crow to behind-the-scenes James Crow, Esquire in voter suppression.
Frankly, I thinks it's almost a miracle that USA elections are reasonably clean*, given the level of party involvement and the vast differences in electoral administration among the 50 states.
*At least in terms of counting actual votes. Campaign financing ain't clean, for example.
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"You come with me to room 1013 over at the hospital, I'll show you America. Terminal, crazy and mean." -- Tony Kushner, "Angels in America"
Posts: 5430 | From: Caprica City | Registered: Jul 2005
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Palimpsest
Shipmate
# 16772
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Posted
The New York Times has a poll saying that Trump popularity in Wisconsin has been plummeting and the Cruz people are hoping to win it all.
Of course the pollsters have been wrong before in this race, but it's turning into an organized effort to speak out against Trump by the rich Republicans (as opposed to the blue-collar ones who are still pro-Trump mostly)
Posts: 2990 | From: Seattle WA. US | Registered: Nov 2011
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