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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562

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As many times as I have seen Nick Cage save the world, he might actually have picked up a thing or two that could be useful in the event of an international crisis.

(The Queen of Bashan and I love nothing more than getting the baby to bed on a Saturday night and finding a bad Nicholas Cage action movie on Netflix. Lucky for us, he seems to make them at such a clip that we never run out of new ones.)

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Enoch
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# 14322

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Hasn't he got to choose a Vice Presidential candidate who is a less attractive potential president than he is? As Charles II said to his brother James Duke of York (later James II and one of the worst monarchs ever)
quote:
"I am sure no man in England will take away my life to make you King."


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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Brenda Clough
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My son, the political maven, points out an interesting wrinkle in the GOP regulations. It is not the candidate who picks the veep. It is the convention delegates, who vote him or her onto the ticket. It has always been that the convention went with the person that the man at the top of the ticket chose. But this is not -necessarily- the case. Trump could become the presidential nominee. And then the delegates could vote in somebody of their own choosing to be veep. Cruz would be the logical candidate here, since he has wooed and won many delegates already. That it would be something in the nature of a shotgun marriage would be amusing.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
... That it would be something in the nature of a shotgun marriage would be amusing.

It's only amusing if Hillary Clinton wins.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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cliffdweller
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It's all fun and games until the horsemen of the apocalypse show up

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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So Mother Jones is reporting that Trump selected a white nationalist as delegate for California, his campaign are now claiming this was due to a technical glitch ...

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/05/donald-trump-white-nationalist-afp-delegate-california

[ 10. May 2016, 22:00: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Brenda Clough
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A deliciously gloating roundup of the Republican position that nevertheless makes the full scariness of our plight plain.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
So Mother Jones is reporting that Trump selected a white nationalist as delegate for California, his campaign are now claiming this was due to a technical glitch ...

I'm pretty sure that the only real news here is that the Trump campaign has selected someone who is openly a white nationalist. White nationalists in the Trump campaign are more of a feature than a bug.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Honest Ron Bacardi
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# 38

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Speaking of celebrities as VP's, isn't Charles Manson up for parole yet? He would seem to have all the right qualities.

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Anglo-Cthulhic

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Barnabas62
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A long way to go, of course, but it's already looking tight in some key states, whether it's Trump v Clinton or Trump v Sanders (v unlikely).

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
A long way to go, of course, but it's already looking tight in some key states, whether it's Trump v Clinton or Trump v Sanders (v unlikely).

Nate Silver pointed out that it is waaay too early to be looking at polls.

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562

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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
That it would be something in the nature of a shotgun marriage would be amusing.

My bet is that Cruz is actually working on a different kind of shotgun marriage- Trump to a hard right platform. Trump departs from the GOP of the last 35 years by being an economic populist with little interest in the traditional Republican wedge social issues. Don't expect the platform to reflect that...

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Brenda Clough
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But nobody pays attention to the platform anyway. (Name a feature of Mitt Romney's -- I can't, although I reason that it had a plank abolishing Obamacare.) Certainly the platform has no effect on governance, after the candidate is elected. What platform could possibly constrain the Donald? He'd ignore it.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
But nobody pays attention to the platform anyway. (Name a feature of Mitt Romney's -- I can't, although I reason that it had a plank abolishing Obamacare.)

For those who are curious, here's the 2012 Platform of the Republican Party [PDF]. The bit about repealing Obamacare is on pp. 32-33.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
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It's the party's platform, not the candidate's platform. Now it is highly unusual for the candidate to take major steps away from the platform. But if Cruz can control the platform, it at least gives Conservatives a chance to say "this guy is just using our party as a shell, he doesn't stand for what we stand for." And that might be a good thing to be able to say if you are in a swing district and it becomes apparent that Trump is toxic.

That, and hell, if you let Trump pick the platform, it probably won't address important, earth shattering issues, like who can use what bathroom. [Roll Eyes]

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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It strikes me the Republicans' biggest problem is that they want to live in a republic, and Donald Trump wants to be a king - ideally an absolute monarch, constrained by nothing and accountable to nobody. I think that is his vision of winning.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Brenda Clough
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You are right. Trump said earlier this week (it was quoted on NPR), "This election isn't about the party. It's about me."

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
You are right. Trump said earlier this week (it was quoted on NPR), "This election isn't about the party. It's about me."

If he loses in November I expect that to become a standard Republican talking point.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
If he loses in November

If.

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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou

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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
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Maybe the democrats should start referring to him as King Trump in attack ads - might get some traction.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Barnabas62
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Danny Kaye singing about the King's new clothes comes to mind.

"The King is in the altogether the altogether the altogether
He's altogether as naked as the day that he was born"

Interspersed with some embarrassing footage of quotes and images from the primaries.

But that's probably too dated for an attack ad today.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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Again, I raise the prospect of the USA joining the Commonwealth. Liz 2 is a great monarch, and it doesn't matter what she thinks about anything as long as she keeps things pastel.

I'm serious. Throw over your constitution and get back to the Empire.

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Human

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
Again, I raise the prospect of the USA joining the Commonwealth. Liz 2 is a great monarch, and it doesn't matter what she thinks about anything as long as she keeps things pastel.

I'm serious. Throw over your constitution and get back to the Empire.

Fair idea but she is 90. Would they be so enthusiastic about her son?

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Prester John
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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
Again, I raise the prospect of the USA joining the Commonwealth. Liz 2 is a great monarch, and it doesn't matter what she thinks about anything as long as she keeps things pastel.

I'm serious. Throw over your constitution and get back to the Empire.

The party that suggests that will lose the Irish vote for generations.
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John Holding

Coffee and Cognac
# 158

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Joining the commonwealth would have no effect at all on the US constitution, since the commonwealth includes republics, non-British monarchies and effective dictatorships as members.

If you mean it should crave readmission to the UK, that's a different matter. Or it could equally seek admission to Canada as our 11th province.

John

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Golden Key
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{Sweetly.} Alternatively, I'm sure we'd be happy to annex all your countries. You could have the status of, say, Puerto Rico or American Samoa.
[Biased]

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
A long way to go, of course, but it's already looking tight in some key states, whether it's Trump v Clinton or Trump v Sanders (v unlikely).

Nate Silver pointed out that it is waaay too early to be looking at polls.
It's never too early to look at polls! It may be too early to start trusting polls, but it's never too early to look. There's also the fact that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were already well known figures nationally before this election cycle, so the public's opinion of them is likely much better formed than their opinion of someone like John Kasich, who most people outside Ohio knew nothing about before 2016.

Sam Wang has an interesting look at early data. The key graph shows that not much has changed since the 2012 election and what little movement there has been has been towards the Democrats. The one exception seems to be Utah, which has shown a lot of movement towards the Democrats. As we saw in the primaries, Mormons as a group really don't like Donald Trump. This is unlikely to be much of a factor outside of Utah. Trump has not "scrambled the map" significantly in any other regard.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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LeRoc

Famous Dutch pirate
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quote:
Crœsos: The one exception seems to be Utah, which has shown a lot of movement towards the Democrats.
This is based on one poll; I'm not putting much trust in that.

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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Crœsos: The one exception seems to be Utah, which has shown a lot of movement towards the Democrats.
This is based on one poll; I'm not putting much trust in that.
But it's consistent with Utah's Republican primary, where Trump carried ~14% of the popular vote. Offhand I can't think of any other state where Trump finished with a sub-20% result. The Republican residents of Utah just don't like him, and this dovetails with other polling that Mormons in general (a fairly consistently Republican group) don't like him much.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:

It's never too early to look at polls! It may be too early to start trusting polls, but it's never too early to look.

Spot on. Interesting link too. Many thanks.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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Are you an American planning to escape to northern climes, should Trump take the Oval Office? Worried you won't know anyone? The Maple Match dating service will match you with a real, live Canadian!

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
# 10192

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quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Are you an American planning to escape to northern climes, should Trump take the Oval Office? Worried you won't know anyone? The Maple Match dating service will match you with a real, live Canadian!

Hmmm, sounds pretty tempting.
[Biased]

In the meantime, another view of the situation.

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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cliffdweller
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quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Are you an American planning to escape to northern climes, should Trump take the Oval Office? Worried you won't know anyone? The Maple Match dating service will match you with a real, live Canadian!

Ever prepared, I took care of that 20 years ago

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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sabine
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quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Are you an American planning to escape to northern climes, should Trump take the Oval Office? Worried you won't know anyone? The Maple Match dating service will match you with a real, live Canadian!

[Smile] One day I typed "how do I--" into Google, and before I finished my question the suggestion How do I immigrate to Canada? showed up.

[I think emigrate would be correct, but presumably the millions who are googling aren't thinking about spelling, just getting out of dodge.]

sabine

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"Hunger looks like the man that hunger is killing." Eduardo Galeano

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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sabine--

IIRC:

"emigrate" = ex + migrate = migrate from

"immigrate" = in + migrate = migrate in(to)

So they would be emigrating *from* the US, and immigrating *to* Canada.

FWIW.

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Sober Preacher's Kid

Presbymethegationalist
# 12699

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Now that the Annexation by Canada/Emigrate to Canada/Have the UK take us back posts have appeared, it is now officially a US Election.

Regular as the dandelions in spring. [Razz]

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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.

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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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No, no, I'm serious. The American Constitution has had so many amendments that its like a bad golfer trying to correct his chronic slice. This represents a real opportunity to go back to the professional, take a few lessons and get things back in shape.

It's true Liz 2 is 90, but she has a lot of mileage left in those tyres. And don't forget that after Charles it's William and then George. It will be like you never left!

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Human

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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
Are you an American planning to escape to northern climes, should Trump take the Oval Office? Worried you won't know anyone? The Maple Match dating service will match you with a real, live Canadian!

You're not fooling anyone with your stories about Canadian girlfriends, you know. Most Americans have twigged to that ruse by now.

quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
No, no, I'm serious. The American Constitution has had so many amendments that its like a bad golfer trying to correct his chronic slice.

What do you mean by "so many"? By my count the American constitution has been amended eighteen times. (The first ten count as one "time" since they were ratified en masse.)

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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I'm no expert, but can you imagine what a bad golfer's swing would look like after being amended 18 times?

bring the wrists up, take your hip slightly down on the left, put your left foot further towards the ball, go a bit higher with the swing, bend your knees more etc etc etc. You see my point.

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Human

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Golden Key
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# 1468

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And what's the Aussie constitution like, then?

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Sober Preacher's Kid

Presbymethegationalist
# 12699

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Actually, the US Constitution has remained remarkably unchanged since 1789, both by world standards and by the standards of US state governments. The majority of US states have replaced their constitution completely at least once.

Massachusetts currently has the oldest state constitution, enacted 1780, but it has been amended beyond recognition such that none of the original text is still in effect.

Vermont's state constitution dates from 1793 and is still substantially unamended since that time (it is also the briefest). New Hampshire is the only other state constitution surviving from the 1700's, 1784.

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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.

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Dave W.
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# 8765

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quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Massachusetts currently has the oldest state constitution, enacted 1780, but it has been amended beyond recognition such that none of the original text is still in effect.

Are you sure about that "none"? This text on the General Court's website indicates amendments (of which there are plenty) in the body; but it's not hard to find articles that appear to show no signs of being changed or superseded. E.g., Articles 4-8, 11, 13, 17, 18, 22-25, 27, and 30 in the first part* alone.

*OK, "Part the First".

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Sober Preacher's Kid

Presbymethegationalist
# 12699

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The entire text was recodified 1917 at which time 66 amendments were swept-in to the original text. AIUI there is no unamended section from 1780 still in force.

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NDP Federal Convention Ottawa 2018: A random assortment of Prots and Trots.

Posts: 7646 | From: Peterborough, Upper Canada | Registered: Jun 2007  |  IP: Logged
RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I'm no expert, but can you imagine what a bad golfer's swing would look like after being amended 18 times?

bring the wrists up, take your hip slightly down on the left, put your left foot further towards the ball, go a bit higher with the swing, bend your knees more etc etc etc. You see my point.

No, I don't. Bad analogy. There's absolutely nothing wrong with revising the written document that lays out how we govern ourselves.
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Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
Crœsos: The one exception seems to be Utah, which has shown a lot of movement towards the Democrats.
This is based on one poll; I'm not putting much trust in that.
But it's consistent with Utah's Republican primary, where Trump carried ~14% of the popular vote. Offhand I can't think of any other state where Trump finished with a sub-20% result. The Republican residents of Utah just don't like him, and this dovetails with other polling that Mormons in general (a fairly consistently Republican group) don't like him much.
Trump's support from religious conservatives has been sketchy, to say the least. I think Falwell Jr. was the only prominent evangelical leader to publically endorse him during the primaries(though some at least will probably do so in the general election).

And, whatever else one may say about Mormons, they do strike me as one conservative religious group whose members actually strive to live by the values they espouse, as opposed to the kind of guy who rails against "queers" and "Adam And Steve" while cruising for drug-addicted hookers on skid row.

So, Trump's history of open debauchery(eg. calling up Howard Stern to brag about his multiple sexual conquests), along with his offhand social liberalism, probably wouldn't sit too well with a lot of Mormons.

(And yes yes, I know there are probably stats that say Utah is Ground Zero for on-line porn consumption or whatever. But I still suspect that Mormons make a stronger pretense of living the values they claim to espouse, than do most other conservative Christians, who aren't ensconced to the same degree in an organized culture that promotes those values. So public endorsement for a guy like Trump is probably not on the table for them.)

[ 15. May 2016, 07:08: Message edited by: Stetson ]

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Brenda Clough
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# 18061

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A friend of mine has a husband who was clocked in the faced yesterday by a Trump supporter. (I think he was saying something pro-Democratic) Broke his nose, he had to go to the doctor.

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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
No, no, I'm serious. The American Constitution has had so many amendments that its like a bad golfer trying to correct his chronic slice.

quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
I'm no expert, but can you imagine what a bad golfer's swing would look like after being amended 18 times?

bring the wrists up, take your hip slightly down on the left, put your left foot further towards the ball, go a bit higher with the swing, bend your knees more etc etc etc. You see my point.

Not really. Are you saying that learning anything new or any kind of change is inherently bad? That a golfer should use the same swing as the very first day he picked up the clubs? Personally I'm skeptical of the argument from antiquity (i.e. this is the way it's always been done, therefore it's the right way).

It should be noted that a lot of the amendments to the U.S. Constitution parallel changes made in the British system (e.g. abolishing slavery, women's suffrage) over the same time period. It seems a bit of a stretch to argue that these changes were mistakes when made by Americans but not when made by the British (or other Commonwealth countries).

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Trump's support from religious conservatives has been sketchy, to say the least. I think Falwell Jr. was the only prominent evangelical leader to publicly endorse him during the primaries(though some at least will probably do so in the general election).

Actually Trump's had pretty strong support from religious conservatives. That was one of the factors that was supposed to sink him, the expectation that religious conservatives (a key Republican voting bloc) would vote for one of their own, like Ted Cruz or Scott Walker (remember him?). It turns out that religious conservatives preferred Trump, and by a pretty wide margin. This led to some "True Scotsman" debates within the religious conservative community about whether Trump voters were "really" religious conservatives.

For whatever reason Mormons seem to be an outlier, genuinely hating Trump's multiple divorces, fake piety, and prideful self-promotion.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Josephine

Orthodox Belle
# 3899

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Two interesting points about Trump.

First, according to NPR, he's about to start getting intelligence briefings.

I understand why we give presidential candidates these briefings. And if (God forbid) Trump should be elected, he'll have access to, and be in charge of, the entire intelligence and national security apparatus. I find that terrifying.

Does anyone know what happens if a presidential candidate spills highly confidential information in a speech or an interview? Has that ever happened before?

Second, Priebus, in commenting on this story from the NY Times, says that nobody cares about how Trump treats women.

I'm sure there's a portion of Trump supporters who don't care. There's a portion who doesn't care about anything he says or does, or has said, or has done. Just that he's not part of "the system" that's been screwing them over, and he's strong and powerful and will poke the system in the eye and kick it in the nuts, and maybe, somehow, this will either make them feel better, or help them get a better deal.

But how widespread is that feeling? Are there any women who don't care? And are there men who aren't part of Trump's base who don't care?

Is there anything at all that Trump can say or do that will turn anyone who has once supported him against him?

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cliffdweller
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# 13338

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quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:

I'm sure there's a portion of Trump supporters who don't care. There's a portion who doesn't care about anything he says or does, or has said, or has done. Just that he's not part of "the system" that's been screwing them over, and he's strong and powerful and will poke the system in the eye and kick it in the nuts, and maybe, somehow, this will either make them feel better, or help them get a better deal.

The irony, of course, being that Trump IS the "system"-- he's the ultimate insider. Instead of voting for a pandering professional pol who is indebted to special interests, they're opting to eliminate the middleman and just vote for the special interest himself. A perverse efficiency, I guess...

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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